Home Football Moving Forward, and the Oregon/Oregon State Trend

Moving Forward, and the Oregon/Oregon State Trend

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Oregon State and Oregon are two programs trending in different directions. Oregon is looking to panic fire their coach after a Civil War meltdown, while Oregon State is trending in the opposite direction, breaking the Civil War incompetence with a depleted roster, in front of National Recruits, hoping to build upon their already impressive Top 25 recruiting class. Duck fans are really struggling with this on Twitter, resorting to the past. IMO people who harp on the past do so because they have a bleak present and/or future. Beaver fans are looking toward next year. Duck fans are talking about how they won 8 straight Civil Wars in the past and made it to National Championships in the past. It’s much like Nebraska fans who are stuck in the 90s. It’s over. It’s not coming back because Osborne and Kelly were both once in a lifetime coaches who installed the right systems at the right time. It’s rare. Oregon might make a panic fire/hire here that sets the program back years. At least Helfrich learned from one of the best, and he did win a Rose Bowl. I’m hearing they want the guy from Western Michigan. Really? A guy who’s biggest win ever is against Northwestern? Or the “Bahamas Bowl” (whatever that is) if you count post-season. Total panic move. It’s funny to watch.

Moving forward, the questions for me this off-season are how to replace the three offensive linemen, and who will be the quarterback (third year in a row we have this question). From the recruiting I’ve followed, GA is hitting the JC o-linemen hard and might land some top talent who can step in. Last night will help with that. Several were at the game. Regarding the Quarterback, I think McMaryion should get the first shot. Only if he loses the job via performance, or Luton is far superior, should he be supplanted. In other words, it should be because of merit, not because GA just doesn’t want him (for whatever reason). I really hope Luton is so good that he becomes the clear and unanimous starter. What happens with Garretson? That’s another question. Is he 3rd string? Does Moran move to safety? Let’s remember no other Power 5 team offered Moran a scholarship at QB (only safety), and that reports from practice are that he’s struggled, not even able to throw a spiral. McMaryion should transfer if he’s not the starter, in my opinion, because GA’s tendency is for his guys.

What else? Discuss it all here.

 

266 COMMENTS

  1. From the “what else” category…..for those who know more than I do. Could Tres Tinkle redshirt this season or is it too late? I’m thinking this is starting to shape up as a lost season and it wouldn’t be a bad idea.

    • If he doesn’t play again, I think he’d be eligible for a medical hardship. The situation compares pretty well to Angus Brandt, who got a medical redshirt after playing 4 games in what would have been his senior season before tearing his ACL.

      • I believe he would be eligible.. I think the NCAA rule is that you have to have played in less than 30% of your teams game for the season

  2. While not often brought up, I want to give a shout out to Telly Lockette RB coach. Both Nall and Pierce look really well coached. They read blocks well, they pass block well (esp. Nall) and catch the ball without hardly ever coughing it up. I think it’s a solid group all around but would like to see Paul Lucas get more chances. Perhaps with Bolden moving on we’ll get a better idea of what he’s made of.

  3. McM was 29/39 for 366 yards with 6 TD’s and 0 interceptions in his last two games. Granted, Oregon and Arizona were probably the two worst defenses in the P-12, but those kind of stats should make you the incumbent starter going into next season. Especially if you are going to continue to be a patient, run first offense. Angry’s point about the OL having to reload next year is crucial to all of this.

    • Totally agree. Should be clear that the offense was very much better with McM’s passing and steadily improved game management including taking the given opportunities to run the ball. I am with Angry about someone else winning the starting role based on merit. McM would make a steady, valuable and proven backup if the competition was fair. Disagree on the transfer preference though. Garretson was a stop gap measure as I look back with far less passing skill comparatively. He began the season a better game manager, but now…. McM may have proven to be the better student to go with his better passing ability.
      Eager for LOI day.

      • McM seemed to really have mastery of the offense his last three or four games. In the last two victories I can’t remember a single WTF ball thrown. He took the one bad sack against the Ducks, but was only sacked 7 times all year (credit to the OL also), so he’s making quick and correct decisions.

        It all becomes suspect if Nall can’t stay healthy and the new OL has problems, but in a good situation, I’m going out on the limb, but I see a poor man’s Russell Wilson in the making if it’s handled right by the coaching staff.

  4. I could see us with anywhere from 7-9wins next year. Weak non conference schedule for the most part and I think next year we avoid Utah and Colorado in the south and they could be the best two teams in that division.

  5. McM ran effectively in the CW. Enough that I suspect they had that in their back pocket to surprise the Ducks. If he can get more effective executing the zone read and improve his instincts on when to tuck and run, he could be pretty good. Hoping spring and fall really helps him in that respect.

    Looking at current targets and commits, it seems that Anderson is looking to completely overhaul the WR position. Disappointing as Bolden has been, he’s probably the only WR this year to consistently achieve separation. I’d love someone else on the roster to step up but it looks like the staff isn’t counting on it. Wonder how much of this is on Brennan. Better WR play will be vital to next year’s QB being successful.

    • I was just looking at those stats, Bolden and Nall led the team with 2 TD catches each. Hoping Collins continues to develop. I can’t believe he only rushed for 30 yards on 15 carries this season. They will need to find a new “fly sweeper” if that’s part of the offense. Villamin is also back, so much potential.

    • With regard to McM running: the first play of the game he faked the hand off to Nall and pulled it for a nice 5-7 yrd gain. The Ucks were loaded up to hammer Nall and it served notice that they should honor the QB run. That was a genius designed run in my opinion. As the game progressed, McM took what was given to him.

  6. If anyone watched the tape on Moran, it was pretty clear he wasn’t a D1 QB. Hopefully either McM, Garrettson or Luton separate themselves as the clear starter next year and provide the team with some stable leadership.

    • And the three you mention all have D-1 game experience which I think is a positive sign. What about Blount? I guess it’s good to keep in mind that in GA’s first two seasons, three QB’s were needed over the course of the season.

      • Yeah, this offense will need them all. But a less arbitrary appearing qb competition would be welcome. I’m convinced garretson was playing hurt after the MN game.

  7. OL is going to be the toughest position group to replace for next year. The 3 senior OL all have legitimate chances to make it in the NFL, I think. They will be missed.

    The good news is there are 6 returning lineman who have starting experience at OSU. We will see what they can do with this group with also adding a at least 3 new recruits. I would guess they would like 3 more OL recruits. Hopefully they can find at least a couple walkon OL recruits also for good depth.

  8. Still completely stoked about the win, especially since my Duck loving brother-in-law has to wear Beaver gear to work every day this week and send me a video of him saying “Go Beavers” in said Beaver attire each morning. #satisfaction

    In regards to the all important next steps and personnell items, here are a few thoughts:

    1. We will need some serious support on the Oline. Hoping Delp, Demogerantas and Fifita can step in with Brandel, Lauina and Lavaka to form a solid six. Tough to know how good the Sattlemeirnkid will be. Where does Kersley fit in? The Agasiva kid looks like a beast, but my bet is he goes to BYU.

    2. Receiving core will be as follows, Bradford, Collins, Hodgins, Hernandez, Sykes and hopefully Jamire Calvin. Hawkins, Arex Flemings and Quantino Allen will all be interesting to watch. Hunter Jarmon and Villamin either get it figured out or transfer.

    3. Running backs will be young, but talented. Of course Nall is the early favorite for Most feared man in the Pac-12, but Pierce along with incomers TJ Green and Isaiah Miller (as long as we can hang on to him), with doses of Paul Lucas in his expanded hybrid role. Should be fun tonwatch this group develop if they stay healthy.

    4. We have a ton of outside backers, if they stay healthy. I would guess they move Hughes-Murray inside to replace Saulo. Outside of atud Rahyme Johnson and little known Jaquan Beaver, not many backers being recruited right now, but it could be there are some and we just aren’t seeing it. It is concerning since it is the position that essentialy ensures you have solid special teams play and we had a ton of injuries at the position this year. Wildcard is the Payne kid, who evidently was injured, but we never heard anything about it.

    5. We need Togiai back and healthy if we are going to take the next steps in the passing game. We had no production from that position without him. (Love Ricky Ortiz, but the man was a fullback playing tightend/H-back). Looks like we have a couple TE’s on the recruiting radar. Kenny Turnier is the wildcard, big, athletic, but completely green.

    6. I would give Mcmaryion the rock and make it his to lose. The kid is just steady and he knows he needs to use the weapons around him to win. Luton and Garretson will put up a very good fight, but McMaryion deserves to be respected for how unselfishly he has served this team. He is a leader. I don’t agree that Moran will be moved or can’t be a solid Pac-12 QB. He will certainly need more time. The Willard kid can really spin it and played on the same 7 on 7 squad as Hodgins. At least we have viable dpeth next season.

    7. If healthy our D-line could be scary good next year, but we need some more depth. If Craig Evans signs (and I think he will) Xavier Davis stays with us, we should have some depth and real viable Pac-12 talent. Excited about the Fauatea kid, but he will be on a mission. Wild card is the Moala kid we signed two years ago and has been on his mission.

    8. So much competion in the secondary, it is going to be fun to see who emerges.

    Go Beavs!

    • With regard to #1, they’re recruiting some big name o-line prospects still and some JCs. With regard to #2, they’ve recruited a lot of WRs this class. Some of those guys might supplant the upperclassmen.

      • Agree on both counts. Hodgins, Sykes and Calvin would all be immediate impact WRs. Agasiva would start on the Oline.

        Very interested to see what happens with Christian Wallace. Stay? Go? Safety? Seems like we are loading up at CB with Lane and potentially Nixon, plus Crawford showed he can play. Where does Wallace fit? Not to put too much weight in social media, but his Twitter feed sends the message that he is more interested in things other than school and football. Hope I am wrong and that he shows up to be a big contributor next year.

        • Dwayne Williams is also a great corner. If we land both JC guys we could be insanely deep at the position. Probably more so than on any Beavs team ever. And that doesn’t even count Wallace, or any of the young guys in the wings- Jay Irvine, Shawn Wilson. Kendall Hill has also been servicable…

          Gotta think a few guys move to safety.

        • Did Christian Wallace end up redshirting? I lost track after the season started. What about Isaac Garcia, is he another Simi Kuli? Shurod Thompson will never qualify and is long gone? Wasn’t there a JC transfer, last name Payne who was supposed to contribute this season to the secondary?

          • There were two Paynes. Both looked good on film, yet I never saw or heard anything about them.
            They’re in the Saskatchewan wilderness with Suli and the Yeti.

          • They’ve moved on from Thompson. Don’t think we’ll ever see him here.
            Wallace amd Garcia are both redshirts, although Garcia hasnt actually started school yet. Maybe next term?
            One Payne was injured after around week 2. Not sure about the other one.
            Robinette I think will be a big contributor next year at OLB or DE. I really like him. If you havent seen his senior film, it’s worth checking out. He was dominant.

          • That’s right, weren’t there Payne brothers? I guess redshirting? Kind of good news that Wallace and Garcia are still possibilities. I did a quick search and couldn’t even find if Shurod is at a JC somewhere. Guess it doesn’t matter.

          • Thompson was supposed to play at College of San Mateo, but never showed on their roster. Maybe he shows up for some college football someday, maybe not. Both Payne bros still at OSU. Wallace is enrolled and practicing. Garcia should be a spring ball participant and seems to be genuinly engaged and excited about joining the team. I think we see this staff continue to take risks on some kids who may not be qualifiers for the next couple years until we build some solid depth. A guy I really like who was everywhere on special teams is Andre Bodden. Has a motor, athletic and seems to have his head on straight. We should see some big physical gains from this years frosh heading into next year. Robinett, Shemar Smith, Unutoa-Whitson, Hughes-Murray all with big upside.

            A guy who just dropped off the map this year was Kyle White who came in and was expected to compete for PT at RB, but struggled to grasp the offense. They moved him to DB early and the. We never heard anything about him after that.

            Kee Whetzel is a frosh kid who could emerge as a safety prospect as well. The have him at OLB right now, but he is undersized. He can run though.

          • Both Paynes have played this year on ST mostly. Landry was hurt midway or so through the season, and Wes came back around the same time and has played since.

            Kyle White has played recently. I think he was hurt against UCLA (?).

            Thompson had a tweet back in September that sounded like he was breaking it off with GA… or that he was listening to the O’Jays. If he’s not in a Juco, his issue might be corrected by him doing work this fall and grey shirting instead of wasting two years of eligibility. I wish him good luck, and I hope we never play against him.

      • I think we flip a JC O-lineman from WSU. Think we have a good shot at Moore, which would be great. Sattlemeier/Moore/Agasiva would be a pretty nice JC OL haul, if we can pull it off

        • Thanks for the updates! Appreciate your info Nicebeav. I wonder if we get Nixon or the Johnson kid. Both would be big gets. Hope we get the big O lineman as well.

          • Johnson feels very unlikely. Nixon I put us at 85% chance of getting. The 17th is a long ways off. Amd signing day is much further. Alot can change

          • You’re right, maybe tomorrow is commitment announcement. He’s a December grad, so the 17th could possibly be when he finishes his JC term. So…..I suppose we should be on alert for news tomorrow from him.

            Also, being a December grad makes him a potential 2016 class candidate. I have no idea how many guys we can take as 2016 early enrollees, but Nixon, Hodgins, Taylor and Green all appear to be guys who will be finishing at their current school before the new year starts.

        • Agasiva would be a legit get imho. I think we made a great impression on Johnson, but he may have been taking the trip just to accompany his buddy, Nixon. Interesting to see if Lane’s commitment discourages Nixon. If he is the competitor he openly boasts about being, it shouldn’t bother him. Craig Evans is a guy we need to lock down so we have solid D-Line depth.

          Don’t forget about Charles Moku-Watson and Tayari Venable. Both HS DBs who have shown a lot of interest in OSU and are connected to a few commits.

      • I never played, but if I were a prospective lineman, witnessing the victory in the manner it was done would be persuasive and would make me consider.

    • His best friend is Ula Tolutau, and he will go where Ula goes. This is why I’ve always been asking for info about him… that and he’s basically another Nall. He, Folau and Olive Sagapolu are the only players besides Elu that I really coveted from GA’s recruiting at Wiscy.

  9. McMaryion finished strong. With Nall being such a good weapon, it is extra useful to have some designed quarterback runs built off it that produce nice yardage pickups & make it that more effective to keep the Nall train rolling. Key throws off play action can then be incorporated with higher odds of success.

    This feels to me like it has a higher % to pay off than reverting back to Garretson as the starter. He didn’t really complete a higher % and his game management was not as good as McM in those final two games. McM has shown he can be an effective leader and execute a game plan.

    I want McM to start first half of next year with Luton & Garretson to be ready and getting time in 4th quarters when we have a stable lead. The backups can use this time to best show their strengths but for now McM should be the guy as he best runs this offense with Nall.

  10. I’m not sad about this but UO is showing its true colors being cutthroat leaving helfrich swinging in the wind. I think Mullens won’t announce firing helfrich until he has a new coach in hand and may keep him if he can’t. Anyone going to work for that school should take note. If I were helfrich I would be looking forward to being fired, taking my $11 million buyout and saying fuck you.

  11. I hope they are dumb enough to keep him. It’s like watching the titanic sink, only funny. I see they only sold sold 1 out of 6 home games this year, after going 100+ in a row. Students leaving before halftime, season ticket holders boycotting. It’s funny to watch from a distance.

  12. It’s pretty simple to me: next year’s success is going to hinge on our ability to replace the three departing seniors on the o-line. The defense has the talent there and really came on strong toward the end of the season. I think with how they played

    I’m still not sold on McM as our QB of the next few years, as I think he’s a C+ guy who currently doesn’t have the ability to make game-changing plays against top competition. That said, he showed steady improvement in the mental side of his game all season long, and if he can continue improving as a passer, I think he could be very successful. His clock management and decision-making in the last few games was great. He deserves to come into camp next year as the starter until someone else proves they’re better.

    Also, here are his final numbers for the year:
    60% completion
    10 TD- 5 INT
    7.6 yards per attempt

    I realize you have to put them in the context of the offense, but that’s a solid line. Yes, there are caveats, like a lot of his longer gains being on swing passes to RB’s, but he’s doing what he’s asked to do and getting it done.

    Ohio State’s offense is a good analog to what we want to be. They dominate you on the ground and get just enough from their QB to have the necessary balance. They’re still good when the QB has an off day, but they’re unstoppable when the passing game is firing on all cylinders.

    • The thing with MM was always his game management. I didn’t hear anyone extolling his arm during our last three drives. But his hands and feet for the last two games have been night and day compared to the previous games. He gets a C+ for this year, his soph year. If he carries this game into next season, I would expect his baseline to be a B game when viewed against all competition, not just terrible Ds. He should have that confidence going into spring ball since DG gets a C-.

      And all our QBs might be looking a whole lot better with the talent accumulating in the hands department.

      Regardless of who gets the first nod next fall, they’re all only a snap or two from getting on the field. So I will feel better next year than I have since 2012.

      • You can’t just take this game in isolation because the Duck defense is horrible and we’re going to need to be more effective through the air if we want to be anything close to contenders in the P12.

        He’s improved in the areas that previously made him a liability. The big question is whether or not he’s a good enough passer to be considered an asset. I don’t think he’s at that level yet, but I hope he gets there.

        • All that is accounted. The timing and the hands and feet are the most important for this O. He still has a hitch in his wind-up, and he just doesn’t have much arm strength. But he can get a catchable ball to open spaces on time better than he was earlier as well. I think that’s because he discovered misdirection moves the D out of the way. Sure, he has a lot to learn about who is easily moved by his mind, but he can build on the game itself now that he knows it’s a game.

          He did get the benefit of a solidified O-line and a run game that came together in the end. But you’ll note his sack in the CW wasn’t of the standing fetal variety. He was thinking about it for a split second, which is what got him caught as he started to scramble. But he didn’t just wilt under pressure.

  13. Also, I haven’t seen anyone mention Trevon Bradford’s name at WR. He came on toward the end of the season with some nice catches, and I think he’ll definitely be more involved in the offense next year.

  14. Maybe the Ducks will go after Scott Frost? Or does he wait for the axe to fall on Riley after next season, then move to his alma mater, ditch the pro set and make a deluded fan base happy again….

    • That seems like the more likely scenario, you would think that Frost is looking over his shoulder at Nebraska.

      Objectively, Frost is at least part of the problem at hole, namely their lack of QB development. They’ve recruited plenty of talent there in the last 5 years but they have to be rescued by a true freshman half way through the season?

      • Yeah… they would be bowling if Frost were still there. Helf plays the straight odds too much. Frost is more intuitively aggressive.

        It wouldn’t have mattered this last weekend, though. When it rains at Reser Stadium, we get rainbows and stuff. Since we’re not a delusional fan base, our PA can come on and say, “It sometimes rains at Reser Stadium,” and we’ll give a cheer.

  15. Hoping the CW win leads to an uptick in season ticket sales, and, more likely, multi-game ticket packages next year. Imporrantly, as OSU improves in play and relevance, they will start to get better start times and that should aid game attendance noticeably.

      • Home Games with late starts:

        Cal – 6 pm
        WSU – 7:45
        AZ – 7:30

        So 3 out of 7, not as bad as I thought. This year those turned out to be among two of the more competitive league games (Cal, WSU) and one of the most complete games (Az). I’d like to see one evening home game, maybe on a Thursday then the rest starting between about noon and 3:30.

        It’s not just good for the gameday environment (obviously) but importantly recruiting. It can’t be impressive for a recruit to see those kinds of crowds and late games. Maybe just try to schedule their official visits around earlier games.

        My perception is that the better teams are going to get better tv times and that makes sense. I haven’t looked at all of the PAC schedules, but I did check UW for comparison and their latest home start time was 6 pm (Stanford). That’s not as discouraging though because the fans don’t have to travel as far.

        The night games can be good for exposure for the program, IF the program can handle the limelight and the moment, which under GA I think they will. I seem to recall Quizz’s first game against USC was a Thursday night, and it was later in the season and Reser seemed pretty lively.

        • The Quizz USC game was in early September was before school started. Hype around the program was high and students showed up in full force despite school not starting for another week. I remember camping out for tickets and I remember having to show up early to get good seats in the student section. These were all stark changes for the student section. Also this was the first game I ever went to where students sat down at half and didn’t leave their seats as was typical prior to that. That game was a clear inflection point for the program for Riley in so many ways. It was palpable on campus. Then things fell apart within a year…

    • I don’t think there is any correlation between winning and better start times. There is a correlation of winning and what network you’re on.

  16. OT…don’t ever go hunting for whitetails without a grunt tube. I’ve never had to shoot a buck out of self defense until yesterday…

  17. GAME GRADE RANKINGS WEEK 14
    Conference – Conference Grade Average
    [DIVISION] – Division Average (Division Avg. Ranking)
    Tot Rank. Team. Grade. Projected Record……………

    ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE – 88.66
    [Atlantic Division – 90.40 (#2)]
    4. Louisville Cardinals 106.0 9-3
    5. Clemson Tigers 102.8 12-1
    11. Florida State Seminoles 97.4 9-3
    29. NC State Wolfpack 90.1 6-6
    77. Wake Forest Demon Deacons 79.4 6-6
    78. Boston College Eagles 78.8 6-6
    81. Syracuse Orange 78.3 4-8
    [Coastal Division – 86.93 (#6)]
    14. Miami FL Hurricanes 95.2 6-6
    17. Virginia Tech Hokies 94.5 9-4
    30. North Carolina Tar Heels 89.7 8-4
    34. Pittsburgh Panthers 88.8 8-4
    61. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 83.7 8-4
    68. Duke Blue Devils 82.0 4-8
    95. Virginia Cavaliers 74.6 2-10

    PACIFIC-12 CONFERENCE – 88.60
    [North Division – 89.00 (#4)]
    7. Washington Huskies 100.7 12-1
    15. Washington State Cougars 94.9 8-4
    24. Stanford Cardinal 91.2 9-3
    53. California Golden Bears 85.0 5-7
    67. Oregon Ducks 82.1 4-8
    72. Oregon State Beavers 80.1 4-8
    [South Division – 88.20 (#5)]
    6. Colorado Buffaloes 101.2 10-3
    8. USC Trojans 99.4 9-3
    31. Utah Utes 89.4 8-4
    50. UCLA Bruins 85.3 4-8
    84. Arizona Wildcats 77.5 3-9
    88. Arizona State Sun Devils 76.4 5-7

    BIG 12 CONFERENCE – 88.08
    9. Oklahoma Sooners 98.7 10-2
    18. West Virginia Mountaineers 93.5 10-2
    19. TCU Horned Frogs 92.1 7-5
    25. Oklahoma State Cowboys 90.9 9-3
    32. Texas Longhorns 89.3 5-7
    36. Baylor Bears 88.1 6-6
    37. Kansas State Wildcats 87.7 7-5
    51. Texas Tech Red Raiders 85.3 5-7
    65. Iowa State Cyclones 82.9 3-9
    102. Kansas Jayhawks 72.3 2-10

    SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE – 87.38
    [West Division 92.10 (#1)]
    1. Alabama Crimson Tide 110.2 13-0
    10. LSU Tigers 97.5 7-4
    12. Auburn Tigers 97.3 8-4
    38. Texas A&M Aggies 87.7 8-4
    43. Mississippi Rebels 86.7 5-7
    57. Arkansas Razorbacks 84.4 7-5
    70. Mississippi State Bulldogs 80.9 5-7
    [East Division – 82.66 (#9)]
    26. Florida Gators 90.7 8-4
    52. Tennessee Volunteers 85.3 8-4
    60. Georgia Bulldogs 83.8 7-5
    64. Missouri Tigers 82.9 4-8
    69. Kentucky Wildcats 81.4 7-5
    76. Vanderbilt Commodores 79.5 6-6
    93. South Carolina Gamecocks 75.0 6-6

    BIG TEN CONFERENCE – 86.54
    [East Division – 89.39 (#3)]-625.70
    2. Ohio State Buckeyes 108.6 11-1
    3. Michigan Wolverines 106.5 10-2
    16. Penn State Nittany Lions 94.5 10-2
    47. Indiana Hoosiers 86.0 6-6
    58. Michigan State Spartans 84.2 3-9
    79. Maryland Terrapins 78.4 6-6
    115. Rutgers Scarlet Knights 67.5 2-10
    [West Division – 83.70 (#8)]-585.90
    13. Wisconsin Badgers 96.7 11-2
    44. Northwestern Wildcats 86.5 6-6
    45. Nebraska Cornhuskers 86.3 9-3
    49. Iowa Hawkeyes 85.7 8-4
    54. Minnesota Golden Gophers 84.7 8-4
    98. Illinois Fighting Illini 73.6 3-9
    101. Purdue Boilermakers 72.4 3-9

    FBS INDEPENDENTS – 82.28
    22. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 91.5 4-8
    39. BYU Cougars 87.5 8-4
    59. Army West Point Black Knights 84.0 6-6
    119. Massachusetts Minutemen 66.1 2-10

    AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE – 82.13
    [West Division – 84.53 (#7)]
    20. Houston Cougars 91.9 9-3
    35. Tulsa Golden Hurricane 88.6 9-3
    41. Memphis Tigers 87.0 8-4
    42. Navy Midshipmen 86.8 11-2
    85. SMU Mustangs 77.0 5-7
    91. Tulane Green Wave 75.9 4-8
    [East Division – 79.72 (#12)]
    27. Temple Owls 90.3 9-4
    40. USF Bulls 87.2 10-2
    71. UCF Knights 80.7
    86. East Carolina Pirates 77.0 3-9
    96. Cincinnati Bearcats 74.2 4-8
    112. Connecticut Huskies 68.9 3-9

    MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE – 77.17
    [Mountain Division – 82.15 (#10)]
    28. Boise State Broncos 90.2 10-2
    62. Colorado State Rams 83.6 7-5
    63. Air Force Falcons 83.5 9-3
    73. New Mexico Lobos 79.8 8-4
    80. Utah State Aggies 78.3 3-9
    83. Wyoming Cowboys 77.5 8-5
    [West Division – 72.18 (#15)]
    46. San Diego State Aztecs 86.2 10-3
    104. UNLV Rebels 71.6 4-8
    107. San Jose State Spartans 70.6 4-8
    111. Hawai’i Warriors 69.0 6-7
    113. Nevada Wolf Pack 68.5 5-7
    116. Fresno State Bulldogs 67.2 1-11

    MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE – 75.28
    [West Division – 80.55 (#11)]
    21. Western Michigan Broncos 91.5 13-0
    33. Toledo Rockets 88.9 9-3
    82. Northern Illinois Huskies 77.7 5-7
    87. Eastern Michigan Eagles 76.5 7-5
    89. Central Michigan Chippewas 76.0 6-6
    100. Ball State Cardinals 72.7 4-8
    [East Division – 70.00 (#16)]
    90. Ohio Bobcats 76.0 8-5
    94. Miami OH Redhawks 74.7 6-6
    108. Kent State Golden Flashes 69.4 3-9
    110. Akron Zips 69.0 5-7
    114. Bowling Green Falcons 68.4 4-8
    127. Buffalo Bulls 62.5 2-10

    CONFERENCE USA – 72.64
    [East Division – 72.71 (#13)]
    23. WKU Hilltoppers 91.4 10-3
    74. Old Dominion Monarchs 79.7 9-3
    75. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 79.5 8-4
    117. FIU Panthers 66.7 4-8
    121. Charlotte 49ers 65.3 4-8
    124. Marshall Thundering Herd 63.7 3-9
    126. Florida Atlantic Owls 62.7 3-9
    [West Division – 72.55 (#14)]
    48. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 85.7 8-5
    66. Southern Miss Golden Eagles 82.3 6-6
    99. UTSA Roadrunners 72.9 6-6
    118. North Texas Mean Green 66.3 5-7
    122. UTEP Miners 64.9 4-8
    125. Rice Owls 63.2 3-9

    SUN BELT CONFERENCE – 71.50
    55. Troy Trojans 84.6 10-2
    56. Appalachian State Mountaineers 84.5 9-3
    92. Arkansas State Red Wolves 75.3 7-5
    97. Georgia Southern Eagles 74.1 4-8
    103. South Alabama Jaguars 71.6 6-6
    105. UL Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns 71.3 6-6
    106. Idaho Vandals 71.2 7-5
    109. Georgia State Panthers 69.1 4-8
    120. New Mexico State Aggies 65.7 3-9
    123. ULM Warhawks 64.0 4-8
    128. Texas State Bobcats 55.1 2-10

    • First time I’ve ever looked at your ratings, and I’m finding it hard to see this as credible. How can you have the Beavs at 45 ahead of Boise State (#49, 10-2), Tennessee (#54, 8-4), and Nebraska (#56, 9-3)?

      • These power ratings are more of a performance metric than an actual “this team is better than this team” metric.

        The metric takes into account the talent level of each team and the performance per game of each team. It takes the W/L record out of the equation for this system. For example, the rating of a team can actually rise with a loss and drop with a win.
        Beating Arizona by 3 points for example would drop your rating since Arizona is a bad team, at the same time, playing Alabama within a TD would very likely raise your rating.

        The power ratings are also readjusted based on opponent’s performances each week: the better your opponent performs the better your comparable power rating gets. (Colorado is a good example of this: at the start of the season OSU was expected to return an 7.5 point loss – this week it’s 22.5).

        Oregon State had a very low talent metric to start with this season and actually exceeded the computer’s projections 9 out of 12 times so it was easier for them to rise in the rankings.

        Based on this week’s power ratings, OSU also shows that it won every game that the power ratings gave them a favorable projection in.

        Meanwhile, Nebraska to use your question failed in its metric four times this year, the most damaging number being a 62-3 loss to Ohio State, also losing to Iowa 40-10, and their overall schedule was weaker than the one the Beavers played as well.

    • Was thinking the same. The coaches are on the road making in home visits today, so maybe that is why we havent heard anything. Also, not a ton of spots left, so if their top targets are still weighing their options, that could be a bottleneck for the other spots.

  18. Jeff Goodman
    ESPN Insider

    Oregon State’s Tres Tinkle did suffer some ligament damage to broken right wrist. No surgery, will be in a cast for 3-4 weeks and then re-evaluated, Oregon State coach Wayne Tinkle told ESPN.

  19. David Shaw proving he is not riding any coattails. Rebounds for a 9-3 season and top 25 ranking after getting blown out by UW and WSU.

    Helfrich on the other hand….only reason why there is a delay in the decision is because the UO AD needs to talk to his donors first before moving forward. If he has the funds to buyout Helfrich and pay for a new coaching staff, I think he will. But nothing is going forward without donor approval first.

    • Theyre probably hoping another team wants to hire Helfrich, to offset the buyout. Read last week that the buyout is something like $2m higher than that, because they’d have to buyout his staff too.

      Plus, i think they lost a bunch of money on those new high tech helmets they started the year out with. Turned out the players didnt like them, and they had to scrap it. Wonder if there an article out there about that, because it sounded like a huge waste of cash.

    • Gotta respect the Shaw, but I wonder if he’s a good builder like Harbaugh, or just a good maintainer. Not that maintaining a program is easy, just ask Helfy.

  20. Jake Luton highlights available in the twitter feed. Any expert comments? Looks like he has a decent arm and the time it takes between deciding where to throw it and throwing it is pretty small but this is beyond my pay grade. I really have rely on some of you guys to tell me what to think.

    • Is this the same film as earlier? He looks better than I remember.

      Has a lot of velocity on the throws. All the throws seem to be line drives without much touch. The fade, for example, was thrown too low and with a lot of velocity. Good footwork and very quick release. Something else I notice is his line gives him a ton of time, and his WRs are running wide open a lot in these clips. His accuracy seems pretty good on the few balls that are contested. Overall I think he looks pretty good. More high on him now after seeing this than in the past.

      • I think a lot of that is from later in the season when he was settling in a bit more. His completion percentage and TD:INT got better as the season went on.

      • I think he is learning on the fly, coming from a background in a veer offense. He has a quick release, a pretty strong arm, and appears to be developing touch, but is a work in progress.

        Looking forward to him competing with McM for the starting job.

        I think early on he’d tend towards some INTs, trusting in his arm and coming from a level of lower competition. But his learning rate suggests he’ll figure it out.

        I think one of the most valuable things they could teach a guy like this – who has an arm and appears to be a bit of a gunslinger – is that its ok to throw it away if nothing is there. Put on some Russell Wilson tape and show him that its better to have an incompletion out-of-bounds than a sack or an INT, then set up for the next play.

      • I did the Sling TV sports package thing and have said goodbye to my Ukranian friends. The stream has been pretty good so far. Just watched the 1998 Civil War classic. Great game, Riley was and still is a dork.

        • It’s the way of the future. I’m waiting for immediate cloud access for programming. Or I’m looking onto the cost and functionality of owning a DVR. Everything but sports is usually available in some way on-demand. If I’m only recording one or two channels once or twice a week, why am I leasing a DVR instead of purchasing one? I don’t do that with the modem.

          I’ll also have to wait to see how much the price of services like SlingTV rise (or how much they degrade) as broadband gets throttled by the communications cronies in the incoming government.

        • I watched the “Football in 60” of the 2013 CW before Saturday’s game.

          I’d forgotten that it was a one point loss at Autzen and that OSU competed that closely. One or two out of eight straight losses were competitive I think.

          Nice to hit “reset” on the CW….

  21. Oregonian poll on if helfrich should fired is surprisingly close. 53 to 47 in favor of firing with 17k votes so far.

    Maybe the call for helfrich’s head isnt a screaming one. I would have thought it would be 70 to 30 in favor of firing.

    • two names I heard this morning on fox sports radio………….

      Scott Frost and James Franklin from Molest U

      I have a hard time believing either of them. Why would they replace Helf with Frost? That’s a gamble at best that may or may not work out. Franklin? Doesn’t strike me as a west coast guy but if I recall didn’t he leave Vanderbilt a few years ago to take over after O’Brien took the Texans job? Money certainly talks though.

      In all honesty I think they’re putting all their eggs in the basket of trying to lure CK back. The question remains is $10 mil enough to make him want to deal with recruiting and schmoozing boosters (it’s no secret, he hated doing both). Again, money talks.

      • I also think CK hated the fact that the NC was not decided on the field, but really affected by polling. I think he’s ultra-competitive, win-on-the-field kind of guy. This has changed somewhat with a playoff, but even the final four still seems subjective.

        I also suspect he does not want to leave the NFL viewed as a “failure” (though his Philly team put up some great numbers, he mismanaged personnel/egos there). Also, can’t seem him returning to Oregon. He can get more money, but he couldn’t get more power and deference than he had. Is there unfinished business? Yeah, no championship. But if he comes back to college, I think it will be somewhere else, east coast or southeast.

        • Chip will never leave the NFL. Even if he can’t be a head coach, he’ll get hired on as an OC somewhere. And yes, it’s because he only wants to coach football, not deal with boosters or spend time away from football recruiting.

          Look at how many OCs or DCs in the NFL are former head coaches. It’s a pretty big number.

      • we all know he and his checkbook make the decisions. I find it comical that some are threatening to not renew season tix if Helfrich isn’t fired. As if their opinion matters lololol

    • Unless they get Chip or Urban Meyer whoever they replace Helf with will be a downgrade. They’d be wise to keep him. I’m hoping they fire him and hire the Western Michigan guy in what would be a panic/disaster move.

        • You have to assume that their talk about Scott Frost is an attempt to get someone else in who will keep the band together rather than canning the whole staff that has been there forever. What their delusional fan base and team owners need to realize is that it’s not actually a bad plan to keep the whole gang together and weather the down years in exchange for a couple of good bowl games every few years. Their thought that they should be in the playoff every year is ridiculous.

  22. I just watched Jake Luton’s last highlights.

    I don’t think there’s anything on that film that screams, he’ll be challenging for the starting position next year. He’s basically on par with the current QBs. The current guys could probably put up the numbers Luton has at a JC too.

    Next year, there will be 6 QBs on the roster. He’ll add depth but won’t be seeing the field unless there’s an injury. He’d need to complete north of 80% of his passes in spring ball to have a chance.

    Next years depth chart –
    1. MM – JR
    2. DG – SR
    3. CB – SO
    4. JL – JR
    5. MM – FR
    6. AW – FR

    • He’ll definitely be ahead of Blount.

      He might be ahead of DG, and possibly even if MM if the coaches stick with their reluctance to make him their guy. I also think Luton might get other offers soon. I hope not. He looks pretty good.

    • Physical attributes- height, arm strength, decent mobility. Makes throws no one the current roster is going to make.

      I thought about the current roster’s ability to put up numbers in that setting and I disagree. DG is simply too inaccurate. Moran doesn’t have the arm strength. I doubt McM does. Sure its CC, but 46 total TDs ? I don’t see them doing it. McM probably does very well though.

      Andersen wants 40+ points a game, has one decent passer (McM). They offered Luton, I think they want him competing for the starting job, not riding the pine.

      • Hopefully DG’s inaccuracy was partially due to injuries sustained in the Minnesota game. He seemed to have decent accuracy in game 1, and it went downhill quickly after that.
        Plus, the coaches pulled him for an undisclosed injury at half-time in consecutive weeks.

        Either way, last picture I saw of him showed him still wearing a walking boot. Gonna be a little while before he’s able to practice at full strength, so I wouldn’t expect him to be much more than depth next year, while McM and Luton battle it out for the starting spot.

    • Do we think Blount will receive an offer from OSU? A few months ago, I would have bet money on it, but now, he seems expendable. If he receives an offer from anywhere else, would he be required to sit a year after transferring? I would think, since he’s a walkon, he would be eligible immediately to any team he transfers to, if that happens.

      • Blount is a walk on and should stay that way. Past injuries tell him he still has a shot if he sticks around.

        He’s only eligible immediately if he was a non recruited athlete.

        • I’m thinking back to when Del Rio transferred from Alabama to Oregon State. He was a walk-on at Bama but never played. Then, he was eligible immediately when he transferred to Oregon State. Pretty sure he was recruited before going to Bama though, as he had previously been committed to Oklahoma State. Wonder if he Grad Transfers this year. That guy could be the most well traveled college football player of all time, with stints at Alabama, Oregon State, Florida and any other school, if he gets another offer.

    • There is a good chance Blount uses a medical redshirt year this past season and will probably be a redshirt freshman next year unless the rules do not allow him to.

  23. Back to Baldwin. Did y’all notice McGiven on the sidelines and Baldwin (apparently) in the booth during the CW?
    Does it mean anything at all? I note Baldwin often tweets stuff which is “team wide” and not focused only on his (publicly stated) job.

    One of you twitter guys could always ask Gina. Were play calling responsibilities any different Saturday?

    • So we had a few more last year than I thought:

      RS Victor Bolden, Jr.; OL Josh Mitchell, Sr.; DL Kyle Peko, Sr.; P Nick Porebski, So.; OL Isaac Seumalo, Jr

  24. Very quiet regarding recruiting. I figured by Monday we would start seeing quite a bit of activity given the number of visitors at the Civil War.

  25. I was heard a rumor that Alex Forsyth might decommit from the ducks if Helfrich and staff are fired. Hes a big 4* olineman out of west linn, but I can’t remember if we were truly on his short list or not? We have someone here who is his neighbor, but I can’t remember who it was. Nicebeaver have you heard anything?

    • Havent heard anything regarding Forsyth, although a few weeks ago i read either a tweet, or an oregonlive quote from him along the lines of him staying loyal to the oregon program no matter what happens with the coaching situation.

  26. Hate to talk poorly about a dude, but does Kevin Hampton from the Gazette Times annoy anyone else like he does me? Writing is boring and worst of all he copies all his stories off of other writers. If you watch his stories and the Olive stories he basically writes about whatever they have posted a few hours after they do. Dude is brutal. Would love to see Gress put on the football beat.

  27. I wonder if GA will try to poach any of the Ducks commits? He’s been on the other side of this when he came in two years ago.

    How many were head to head? I can only think of Forsyth.

    • TE Moses Ribinson-Carr is one who comes to mind. Position of need, and he had us in his top # list prior to choosing Oregon several months ago

  28. I’d say time to start poaching recruits but they are more interested in glitz glam and 1,000,000 different uniform combinations than actually playing hard nosed football…

  29. Not 100% sure, but I think coach chad is in samoa recruiting now. As with last year, you can expect to hear more about the Samoan recruits between now and signing day. Several guys visited Corvallis in June of 2015, so I wouldnt be suprised to see some of those names resurface.

  30. Does anyone else think the Ducks would have kept Helf one more year if they had won the CW? I feel like that might have been enough redemption on the season. If so, add one more notch to the Beavers’ list of coaches fired after we beat them.

  31. Just read nemec’s story on Johnson gaining interest in us after the visit and being disappointed with the ducks communication. I hate hearing that stuff where the player keeps interest in them even though they don’t show it back. Its like putting up with an abusive relationship.

  32. It’s hilarious how when people were calling for Mike Riley to be fired all the media were saying “be careful what you wish for”, but Helfrich has one losing season and all the media is pushing for him to be fired. Fu** them.

    • Damn, that was quick. Too bad, I’m like BBandits above; remembering that we had someone here who was a neighbor and also remembering that OSU was pretty high on Forsyth’s list at one point.

    • Well there’s the answer. He’s staying. That would make me nervous as a recruit, if the coach was canned before you sign anything. There’s a chance the next coach won’t want him or any of the other recruits, then what do you do. It’s getting late in the game and rosters are filling up fast since high school ball is over most places.

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