01.Mar.2017 Are We Getting Ahead of Ourselves with Gary Andersen?

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As I watch the stock market skyrocket over a 30 minute populist speech, it makes me wonder if we fans, too, are getting ahead of ourselves. Why are stocks at all time highs? There are many irrational reasons, but the largest seems to be a promise of prosperity sometime in the future. And Nationalistic prosperity at that, just like the good ol’ days. I guess the idea is that people will spend their newfound coal wages on products U.S. corporations make (in China). What the stock buyers aren’t realizing is U.S. Dollars won’t have much value to buy a whole lot of Chinese goods and even fewer American goods, and no single man is going to change that. So for sure the market has gotten ahead of itself.

It made me wonder: are we Beaver fans getting ahead of ourselves? It is almost accepted as fact that Gary Andersen will win 7 or so games next year. The logic being they finished strong, he has his players, they’re all bigger and stronger, won the Civil War, etc. The CW victory was great, but it’s lead to many assumptions that border on expectations. In hiring Gary Andersen, we were promised a winning team some time in the future, and fans seem ready to buy the story that this is that year.

A good question would be: what is a fair and reasonable expectation for year 3? And, did the way the Beavs finish last year put fan expectations ahead of where the team actually is? I know a lot depends on the offensive line and all the obvious issues, but I’m talking in broader strokes here. As a fan, is this the year you expect return on investment?

Go Beavs.

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  • Rocketsaucer says:
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    First. I’d say the expectation has direct correlation with the strength of the conference this year.
    Ducks new coaches, ASU coming off a down year, etc, I don’t think the Pac12 will be that strong.
    A lot of will fall on the ability of the O line and who starts at QB. If those fall into place I don’t think 6 or 7 wins is too much to expect.

  • Nicebeaver Nicebeaver says:
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    6 win lower level bowl appearance should be a realistic goal.
    I’m still not sold that we’ve answered many questions on offense, with OL and a rotating QB position being the biggest question marks.
    Do we know what we want to do yet?
    GA says we need to score 40+ per game in this conference to win. Can we put together consistent 40 pt scoring efforts?

    • JockItch JockItch says:
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      Agreed….6 wins is the expectation — ball bounces our way or injuries willing, could be 7-8 win season.

  • Bill says:
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    I wouldn’t expect.much of a step forward or backward with the QB situation still unsettled.

    There’s 2 games on the schedule that could be marked as likely wins. The rest are toss ups or likely losses. Lots of things need to go right to even reach 6 wins. My overly optimistic thoughts would say 6 or 7 wins. I think it’ll be more like 4 or 5 wins.

  • Beav in DE says:
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    My best guess is 4 or 5. The offensive line is a huge unknown and the QB situation is unsettled. I don’t think we can win more than 4 with similar offensive production to last year’s with MM at the helm, so we’re going to need improvement in those areas if we’re going to have a winning season.

  • Bill says:
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    The things that need to go right next year,

    1. Find a QB who can manage the offense and stick with him.
    2. Nall and Pierce need to stay healthy.
    3. New OL needs to gel immediately. No snapping issues.
    4. Defense needs to build on the last two games of 2016.
    5. Defense needs to stay healthy. Lot of injuries stunted the growth.
    6. Defense needs to find a pass rush. Ranked 105 in sacks.
    7. A WR needs to step up and be the guy they can count in 3rd down situations.
    8. New kicker needs to make kicks. Owens had a bad year.
    9. Whatever I can’t think of right now.

    • Corliss says:
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      Improved play and production from the tight ends…

  • dwill03 dwill03 says:
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    My cynical self says the stock market is rising because the big money guys are happy. The big money guys are happy because:

    -Deregulation is taking place so they can fuck us all over again
    -Massive corporate tax breaks so they can invest in more automation = more long term profits
    -Repelling of any/all environmental protection = more profits
    -There have been steps taken to curb favors for lobbying which is refreshing to see. Problem is: lobbying instead of buying favors now just gets you a cabinet position.

    GA: I think 6 wins is the mark for being on-track. 7+ and he’s killing it. Less then 6 then we’ll need to start being more critical.

    I have a feeling our defense is on the cusp of being great. GA wants 40 + points a game which is a great goal. The d might be good enough that we only need 30 to win most though.

    • angry angry says:
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      Good post.
      I’m going to be looking to short the snot out of stocks by week’s end if this keeps up. We’re in “buy high, pray to sell higher, ultimately sell low” stage which means this is the dumb money buying.

      I think the Beavs offense will average around 24 points per game. Subject to change in Fall camp, but that’s my gut instinct.

      • Bill says:
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        Short retail, healthcare,

        Buy major defense contractors.

        • angry angry says:
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          Buy major defense contractors.

          Sell the news. It’s already priced in.

          Why short healthcare? It’s the one sector with fundamentals behind it (millions of sick/dying baby boomers with money).

          • wannabeav says:
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            the next big short should be commercial real estate. The Amazon effect is about to kick-in “big-time”

      • Jack Jack says:
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        Unless you’re a hedge fund lackey, why would you borrow against cash if you’re bearish? You want to become more liquid, not less. If you’re talking about put options, why not just take your gains and leave the market until you see the time to return?

        Let the morons chase their short games. I’m still in for the long haul. This recent bubble has just given us a chance to exit with a net gain equal to the market’s real value. Keep your core class of equities that will ride the wave, and start turning the others into cash. Pay off as much debt as you can first. Then start rolling allotments into bonds.

        As in good times, stay away from any asset class whose title ends in the word fund. In a bear market, you’re more likely to find out that certain managed funds have residual values… that float down to earth under golden parachutes.

        If you want to buy munis, I suggest Indianapolis, NYC and Palm Beach.

        • rsteve503 rsteve503 says:
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          Agree with Jack. Dont think the market has never stayed at historic highs for a long period. It finds an excuse, panics and comes a big dive. Thats when to get in — easy money on the inevitable recovery and new record highs. I got out just a couple weeks ago. I find it hard to believe the Trump weirdness wont lead to something that dumps the market. That said, if anyone could actually predict the market, they would have all the money, lol. We will see.

  • ean says:
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    The stock market is going crazy, they should have raised interest rates right after Trump won but that would have been “totally unfair”. Stocks don’t have great value but when interest rates are zero your only options are nothing or buy stocks.

    • angry angry says:
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      Stocks have no value at these prices. Value implies something overlooked that’s cheap relative to earnings with upside. And those aren’t your only options. You can buy gold, silver, land, timber, collectibles, art, a house to rent, bonds (awful but stocks aren’t yielding more at this point). You can also buy goods that will be rising in the future.

      Agree they should have raised rates long ago, probably in 2013 when it was obvious we were headed toward the same exact bubbles.

      • ean says:
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        Housing seems really high right now too.

        • angry angry says:
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          It is for sure a bubble in almost every desirable market, but all I’m saying is if you have enough cash you can buy a place and rent it for income, which is more ideal than buying stocks at these prices.

          • youngorst says:
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            I’m just predicting the housing bubble lasts 1 more year. I waited and bought after the last crash and hope to sell next spring and then hopefully buy back in post burst.

            As for the stock market, irrational decisions being made because of the promise of low taxes/regulation. Even if the Cheeto delivered on all those promises the middle class won’t see any changes, their incomes will likely just be even lower relative to the rich and eventually the stocks will crash.

            We are creating a new bubble. For all the complaining about growth under Obama; it was likely the level of growth that a society can sustain without massive drops. 5% growth? Sure, sounds great till the inevitable correction occurs.

          • angry angry says:
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            Well the bubble began under Obama (stock P/E ratios were 7th highest ever when he handed things over, and after today’s close they’re 5th highest ever, and higher than right before the 1929 crash or ’99/2000 dot com bubble). And now Trump wants to roid it all up even further.

            Fed is too slow to act, as always, so it’s going to get out of hand soon. We need quite a large hike yet might not even get .25.

            What’s interesting is that most of the stock gains of the past six years were due to firing employees or automation. Revenues pretty much stink for most companies. So as noted, that favors those who already have money. I wonder who is buying hand over fist at these levels. It must be panic buying by novices (maybe millennials are dipping in).

          • JockItch JockItch says:
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            This is what my wife and I have done the last 5 years. We plan on selling one of the houses in Portland, cashing in, and make a hit towards our current mortgage. Of course, some of that needs to go to kid’s college fund. Good time to sell property on the West coast.

          • youngorst says:
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            angry,

            I agree the housing bubble began under Obama (due to artificially low interest rates) I was talking more about the growth of the overall economy. 5% (I believe that is the Cheeto’s promise) is simply unsustainable and most gains under that type of growth will be lost soon after. 1-2% growth can likely be sustained over the long haul.

          • angry angry says:
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            Agree, and recession/contraction is actually a normal part of the business cycle that they’re not allowing to happen. So say we got 1 to 2% under Obama. That should have been a contraction/recession were it not for the rate shenanigans. Eventually that recession happens, and it will likely be much worse because there’s now no wiggle room on rates. These people have to intervene because they’re control freaks. Just let the market discover price. But no….

          • Jack Jack says:
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            The market does decide everything. The Fed isn’t some political leader. They’re reactionary with even someone as hawkish as Greenspan, who was a de-regulator extraordinaire. They’re the one entity who has to protect themselves from every contingency. And the market creates all contingencies.

            Right now, the yield curve is putting stress on the Fed. And they will have to follow the market with higher rates. Two raises are announced, but they won’t be enough unless they are major corrections. So they’ll either announce more to ease the rise or let it stress until it snaps due to neglect.

            I like the overall take on P/E as a symptom. But it has shifted higher in its variables due to a transition to a service economy. So a comparison to past economies fails. Always follow the yield curve. When demand for short term bonds pushes it to the negative, we are within a year of a major correction followed by deflation. When deflation hits, cash is king. And there’s no better store on earth than US government bonds. When the short-termers start buying them, you know shit’s about to hit the fan.

          • JockItch JockItch says:
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            I’ve shifted 1/4 of my portfolio to government Bonds a couple of months ago. Probably a little early, but I’m that way…. 😉

  • ughh says:
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    Most of the time, I hate not living in Oregon anymore. However, whenever I read Beaver message boards that focus on politics, I get to see how crazily left-wing Oregonians are and that makes me at least a little happy I’m not there.

  • angry angry says:
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    I think 6 wins is realistic and not getting ahead of ourselves. 7+ is possible, but it gets into speculative/best case territory.

    I’d like to hear from coaches how hard each additional 2 wins is. I imagine much harder as you go up. i.e. going from 2 wins to 4 wins is probably much easier than from 4 to 6 and 6 to 8. It’s in that regard that I think fans just assuming two more wins can be let down.

    Another interesting question: who wins more games, OSU or Nebraska? I think I’d lean OSU right now.

  • youngorst says:
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    Not getting ahead of myself. I think 6 wins is a reasonable expectation in year 3. If Andersen fails to hit that number than I think he should be on the hot seat in year 4.

  • wannabeav says:
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    The financial sector of the stock market is up because those interests see a roll-back of Dodd-Frank regulations which will allow sector companies to speculate more and presumably make more money. If you take the financial sector numbers out of the larger market I think you see a much smaller run-up since the election but a run-up nonetheless because of a related initiative, a revision to the corporate tax rate. Myself, I’m convinced that’s the right thing to do since the USA seems to be such an outlier in that regard. The “repatriation” of all that cash from Ireland, the Bahamas, wherever, is in fact likely to spur the economy. The problem, it seems to me, is talk of a general tax cut which, however desirable in the abstract, is only going to increase the long term debt and the intractability of solvency issues a half-generation from now.

    I recommend that y’all study up on a fellow that I think is going to be a “big name” soon–Mark Blyth, from Brown University. I think it’s fair to describe him as a neo-Marxist but he is VERY critical of the political diffusion surrounding “identity politics,” and “called” both the Brexit vote and Trump’s election. He has tremendous insight (and is very entertaining; though he has a PhD in economics he used to stand up comedy.) My thumbnail assessment of his key argument is this: liberal ‘thought ‘ hardly qualifies as such any more because it truly isn’t rigorous thinking and it’s beholden to “big money” as much if not more so than conservative thinking.

    As to the Andersen question: I think the “climb” to a six win season is steeper than last season’s ending two-game winning streak suggests, and indeed those two games are the filter through which most forward looking projection are refracted. I think it is important to remember how truly dismal a situation Riley left the program and the only down-side from Nebraska taking him off our hands (I loved the story from Surprise:: “you got Riley”) is that had he stayed one more season he would have won 2-3 games at most and would have been fired. That would have been a cleaner ending.

    That said, we can speak with certainty (per Angry) that Nebraska won’t win any more than 9 games next year and, if you recall, Riley ALWAYS followed an uptick with a downtick at OSU; thus I figure 8 games tops, including a potential bowl game, and probably fewer since he’s breaking in a new QB.

    • angry angry says:
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      Riley’s lost a lot of seniors. I think he could be looking at 6 wins max unless I’m missing something. I don’t follow those other teams in the Big 10 very closely. If they’re as good as last year I don’t see him hitting 7 wins.

      • AfghanBeav AfghanBeav says:
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        If he wins 6 or less, does he get canned?

        • scotty says:
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          Yes. And deservedly so. The Nebraska job was no rebuild. Well… not until he got there, anyway.

    • Jack Jack says:
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      Blyth fails in the same way he says others fail. He speaks of neoliberalism as if it’s liberalism. The same could be said of anyone on the right being pegged as neocon or conservative. Them’s identities, Mark. Welcome to the game you were just complaining about.

      While he’s not wrong on a bunch of small data ideas, his foundation is so out of whack that he might as well be speaking Greek. Neoliberalism=Neoconservatism=Libertarianism with an oligarchic thumb on the scale=Monetarism with fees=Crony capitalism. Identity politics is just the argument about who gets to be the oligarchy and whose donors get paid off.

      Is it at all telling that the same people keep getting paid off no matter who the oligarchy might be?

      A majority of the Democratic Party and all of the GOP are bought. Is it any surprise that the guy who ran on liberal tenets (albeit ignorantly) won the GOP primary? Will it be a surprise when all of those tenets will be marginalized so that cronies can make a mint?

      And think about it for a bit. Repatriation of offshore dollars will do nothing good without those people paying their fair share to take part in our economy. Why do they get to have retroactive rules made for them just because they didn’t want to play by the old rules? Go ahead and keep your dollars over there. See if I care. That’s where you chose to make your money. Keep it there. You don’t get to play with that money in my market unless you pay the same share everyone else pays. Why would I let you milk my cow for free?

      Beyond that, repatriation would only benefit the companies and their investors with no benefit to the country. It would simply go to buy backs and further automation in manufacturing. I suppose if you own the actual tech and pharmaceuticals that play this loophole created by cronies in the 80s, you would do okay. But do you think that will be enough to offset the effects that $2.5t slamming into our economy will create?

  • BlackBandits BlackBandits says:
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    Calling it now. 6 wins with a win against willie vanilli.

  • beaverkman beaverkman says:
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    The optimism is the program have their players and their program identity in place. They have a favorable schedule early on, which can create momentum. What we don’t know is what happens if this team stubs it toe?

    The depth is improved, if we get hurt we now have the backups to sustain upward projection. I like the defense, and I think it could be fairly good, even top division. I think the OL is closer then people are giving them credit for,sure there are some new guys but the depth seems better and the “identity” is there,it is a matter of getting improvement from everybody. I think the WR could be very good, but might need a half of season to “mature”. Having Togai back will be a huge boost.

    I think Special teams could be improved as well, we are more athletic and faster. Need improved QB play (which starts up front) but I think we can do that. Let’s see what the Spring game looks like.

    I think we have every reason to be bullish on the Beavs.

    • JockItch JockItch says:
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      I’m glad you mentioned the special teams. We haven’t been talking about them, they’ve been off radar.
      What are the expectations regarding kicking team, and returns. Kicking was subpar wasn’t it…? I don’t remember any kickoff/punt returns for touchdowns.
      Do we give Bruce Read a call?

      • angry angry says:
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        I expect them to make FGs, punt 40+ yards, get past the 20 yard line on kickoffs, and tackle the opposing team.

        • BlackBandits BlackBandits says:
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          You mean fundamentally sound football? I think everyone wants that.

  • ohiobeav says:
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    Just from the tweets/updates on the beavrecruiting it looks like an emphasis on offering early to OLine guys going into the next recruiting cycle. Hope they can pick their guys early and hold onto them.

    I like Andersen and fully expect 6-7 wins, hoping for a surprise of 8-9. I anticipate a top 4 conference defense that will get better as the year goes.

    As far as Nebby, I am on record that Beavs have more wins than Nebraska, given the new qb situation alone for Nebraska. I’d expect them to win 4-6 and the heat is on in Lincoln all Fall for Coach Riley.

    • oneoldbeav oneoldbeav says:
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      I too, think a top 4 conference D is a reasonable expectation. Depth seems OK in most areas and the addition of Evans (when he arrives) and Wallace will help. Hopefully Bright recovers fully, we’ve seen things like this linger in the past and he is, to me, a key element.
      I think 6 wins is about right. Hoping the D keeps the Beavs in every game.

      As for Neb, that new QB thing and staff changes lead me to agree. 4-6 wins.

  • bendbeaver bendbeaver says:
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    Angry, why do you think the average points per game will be lower than last year?

    • angry angry says:
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      What was their average in conference? I was thinking in Pac. I don’t care their average outside of Pac since they should win those games.

      That being said, I didn’t look at last year’s numbers. Just went with my gut for what they’ll score in conference. I’m open to upping that number if they did that last year. I do think they’ll score more points this year due to the passing game, but it might be negated somewhat by the line play. Tough call.

    • oneoldbeav oneoldbeav says:
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      Some good stuff there.

      I notice Jonathan Willis is not mentioned; we touched on this before. Seemed to show lots of potential then got bypassed.

      What about the situation with Sumner missing “a lot of position meetings” and making that up with individual meeting with coach Woods? Could a little of this be a positive?? I’m skeptical.

      As with most (all?) of what we hear, seems McM isn’t getting/earning a lot of respect.
      Nice that the team will practice again in Bend, good for the players as well as Beaver Nation.

      EDIT ADD: Going beyond what Eggers wrote, I’m just catching up with Gina, she has this from GA regarding Jonathan Willis: “Right now, Jonathan’s proven to be one of the best 11 defenders we have,” Andersen said. “So we’re going to find a spot to get him on the field.”

      • beavergopher beavergopher says:
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        http://giphy.com/gifs/movie-s-anime-animated-a0FuPjiLZev4c

      • dwill03 dwill03 says:
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        My extrapolation of what Andersen is saying:

        Sumner being an engineering student is that

        a) he’s smarter then you’re run of the mill college football player so missing the team meeting might not hinder him

        b) he’s most likely missing those meetings because they conflict with his engineering classes. More difficult to catch up on the then public communications courses.

  • Doozeldorf says:
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    I thought the consensus was that this was a 3 year rebuild. They have definitely made good strides in improving the roster year over year, but they don’t have all of the pieces of the puzzle yet. Of course we expect to see improvement every year, but football has so many factors I don’t think we can measure this team’s progress solely on wins this year. What if they only win 4-5 this year, but they play close games against the top of the PAC and have a blowout win against a lower tier team? I would call that good progress. Then next year when GA can fill in the rest of the puzzle, the close losses this year should turn into wins.

  • mckalk mckalk says:
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    I think it’s interesting that the QB situation is “unsettled”. It’s only unsettled because most seem to think that the starting QB from the mid-point of last year is not the answer, even though he played extremely well against two weaker P-12 teams that the Beavs had a chance to beat and did because he did not make any game changing mistakes and the coaches were disciplined and patient with the run game.

    I guess we have to trust the coaches that McM is not the answer and another QB will immediately improve the offense. I’m tilting toward the defense being improved enough to get 6 or 7 wins and the offense doesn’t screw up. If Luton starts throwing interceptions left and right than they could easily lose a winnable game. College football boils down to turnover margin in so many games between somewhat evenly matched teams.

  • ObjCritic says:
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    “A good question would be: what is a fair and reasonable expectation for year 3? And, did the way the Beavs finish last year put fan expectations ahead of where the team actually is? ”

    Is a fair question. It was so nice to enjoy a few wins, that it might be easy to forget how bad were the teams OSU beat. Oregon’s D has been absolutely awful the past two years, but of course winning the CW was welcome, but it was mostly a competitive game.

    Also, the last few games, many players, including McM, claimed to be playing “for Collins,” who was out ill, so they were extra motivated. That may not be a significant factor in those wins, but I think it’s worth noting that they cite the situation as extra motivating in their play.

    Andersen is clear he wants 40+ points per game and I think that leads to aggressiveness in pace and downfield shots, and that will result in some mistakes and TOs from whoever is playing QB.
    While Andersen evolves the offense with the likes of new WR coach Phillips, I hope we see aggressive running. I’d still like to see the playcalling favor running.

    I think more games will be competitive, the defense will be improved and more of a factor. With non-conference wins, I could see the Beavs making a bowl game with 6 wins.

    • JockItch JockItch says:
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      I thought the composure was a lot better towards the end of the year. There were a couple losses early on Beavs could have turned into wins with better composure/consistency throughout the game. The Boise State game was a horrible first half for the run defense, but the team battled back and made it a one score game before Collins had the ball stripped. The Washington State game was an epic first half followed by an uncharacteristic meltdown by the secondary. This year we’ll win those types of games and get to 6-6.

    • Beaverkman Beaverkman says:
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      “A good question would be: what is a fair and reasonable expectation for year 3? And, did the way the Beavs finish last year put fan expectations ahead of where the team actually is? ”

      I think Coach A answers this by saying a Bowl game is the goal, so that is 6 wins. I think that is fair. If you break the schedule down in thirds it seems attainable.

      Part One
      Portland St
      Minnesota
      Wazzu
      Colorado St
      – Conservative : win three out of four

      Part Two
      UW
      USC
      CU
      Stanford
      – Conservative zero wins (although if the team has a good part One and build momentum, who knows maybe they pull an upset or two?)

      Part Three
      Cal
      Arizona
      ASU
      Ucks
      -Conservative – three out of four

      That would get you 6 wins and a bowl game, there could be room for a few more wins if things are clicking. 6-8 wins I don’t think is unrealistic. But 5 is also possible.

      • Nicebeaver Nicebeaver says:
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        I didnt realize how brutal that middle part of our schedule was.
        Hopefully CU and Stanford are viewed more as swing games this year than they were last year.
        I would hope we could win at least 1 game out of those middle 4. That would be progress.

      • JockItch JockItch says:
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        Out of the part two, Beavs really should get a win from Col and/or Stanford as those are both at home, but hoping for a split.
        Part three, all four are gossips and come down to home filed. ASU looks promising as that game is a home game, and ASU hasn’t looked good. The Cal game is away, but Cal has a new coach and our players matchup well, at least on the talent and stars — really need to win this game. A win at Arizona would be icing on the cake. Of course the Civil war introduces the Buddha, see that one as a toss up, but Schmuck lean since it’s in Eugene.

      • dwill03 dwill03 says:
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        Middle of the schedule: Colorado was heavily senior laden last year. I would anticipate a drop off. We also played probably our worst game of the year against them.

        Stanford: I think we beat them last year if not for McCaffery. IMO: If not for him Stanford is only an 7-8 win team the last couple year. Special player.

      • Bill says:
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        PSU – Likely win.
        Minn – Likely win.
        Wazzu – Likely loss. They still have Falk who has owned the Beavs so that’s not really a toss up when it’s on the road.
        CSU returns their top QB, RB and WR. Less of a toss up game than people think and it’s on the road. Likely loss since it’s on the road.
        UW – Likely Loss
        USC – Likely Loss
        CU – Likely Loss
        Stanford – Likely Loss
        Cal – Toss up with their new coaching staff and QB.
        AZ – Toss up. Easy win last year but on the road this year.
        ASU – Toss up since it’s at home and ASU tends to struggle in the 2nd half of the season under Graham.
        UO – Toss up but lean toward loss.

        The Beavs haven’t won a road game since 2014 so it’s hard to say they’ll win any away games this upcoming season.

        Teams with coaching changes are hard to gauge but they usually are better later in the season vs the beginning when they are working out the new system. Cal and UO fall in the last part of the season, so I would think they would be tougher there than at the beginning of the season.

        I think the Beavs can get one upset and split the toss up games putting them at 5 wins.

        • Corliss says:
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          Weren’t we leading the cougs by 20 last year? Pullman is not the Coliseum…..

        • ohiobeav says:
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          I love the way too early pocket schedule game:

          PSU at home- win
          Minn at home- win Payback for that opener last year, just block that one defensive end!
          At Wazzu- win Wazzu will struggle to replace both wide receivers. Falk can throw but no one can catch like those 2 that graduated, Beavs get the lead and hold on in Pullman for GA’s first conference road win
          At CSU- win Beavs have confidence and a stout run D, power running game along with a maturing pass game put Beavs at 4-0
          UW at home- loss I like the Beavs chances at home but too much Browning, although he won’t have his recievers either
          At USC- loss, possibly a big loss, GA’s first time to the Coliseum.
          CU at home- win Beavs bounce back and run over the buffs at home
          Stanford at home- win Beavs rested and ready for Stanford without McCaffrey, D-line controls the game and Stanford is forced to throw. Beavs grind out a slugfest and get 6 wins and a signature win for GA era.
          At Cal- win Beavs formula of tough aggressive Defense and power running game is too much for Cal and new staff
          At Arizona- loss Cats have athleticism and will be scratching for a win somewhere on there schedule, Beavs overconfident and get upset
          ASU at home- Late November repeat of a few years ago when ASU didn’t even want t get off the bus because of the weather, Beavs win a blowout
          At UO- win GA has the template and UO is in disarray by season’s end, Beavs ground and pound another Civil War win, Ducks end the season in panic as reality sets in that OSU is back
          I put a lot of hope in the Beavs defense. The d-line and linebackers should be tough to run on this year, the secondary is getting better each year. If there is any consistency from the qb position, 225 yds passing, 60% completion, very few interceptions, then the Beavs will win 9 games.
          This is my rational for a very enjoyable and thrilling 2017 season, Beavs could end the seaon at 9-3 and go to the Alamo Bowl.
          Pac 12 trends team by team
          USC, UCLA, Beavs will be better
          Stanford, UW, Utah, ASU, CU will take a step back from last year
          UO, Cal, UA, jury is out

          My fear is that UO rises up quickly and runs over everybody in Buddha’s first year. They will be insufferable. I hope it all collapses from within and is exposed as a fraud.
          UO and Chip couldn’t get away with cheating the first time will Willie Lyles. They learned their lesson and this time decided to bring in an entire staff from the south, all reputed to be “great recruiters”. Code for “they know how to do it the sec way” without getting caught this time.

  • scotty says:
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    Not expecting a bowl until year 4. As long as we don’t take major steps back this year, I’m okay

  • beavergopher beavergopher says:
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    Standard rebuild: Generalizations,
    Year one…..lose big
    Year two….. lose close
    Year three….win close
    Year four…….win big
    Anything less than seven wins is a fail. Crappy bowl game is a must to sell progress to recruits, players, and donors.
    The issues are self inflicted by GA. Too light on OL in his first classes and not getting and settling on a QB. I think he gets it done and we start an upward climb. Go Beavs.

  • Bill says:
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    The x factor this year is the QB. If the QB can stretch the field with the WR’s then the team could blow right on by 6 wins.

  • Nicebeaver Nicebeaver says:
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    Sounds like there is a spring scrimmage saturday at 11am this Saturday.
    Weather will dictate if it happens at Reser and is open to public, or if its a closed scrimmage in Truax.
    Anybody here planning to go?

  • Nicebeaver Nicebeaver says:
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    BeaverSedge has a podcast now. I think it’s just called The Sedge”

    https://soundcloud.com/beavers-edge

  • BlackBandits BlackBandits says:
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    Ahh, Oregon trying to stay transparent in the wake of the “coaches gone wild” mess.
    http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/18782615/oregon-working-new-policy-keep-coaches-disciplinary-records-private

  • FatDog says:
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    The easy money has been made but I’m cautiously optimistic because it’s a stockpicker’s market. Well, it’s not a stock market, it’s a market of stocks. For the most part, we’re constructive on the market because stocks are down on “profit taking” and stocks are up on “bargain hunting.” This is because there are more buyers than sellers and there’s lots of cash on the sidelines plus we’re in a bottoming process. Overbought. Oversold. The adage is buy on weakness and sell on strength but I’ll take a wait-and-see approach until I see it’s a show-me stock.
    I just used all 16 meaningless phrases that sound smart in one paragraph: http://www.businessinsider.com/meaningless-phrases-that-sound-smart-on-cnbc-2011-6?op=1/#e-easy-money-has-been-made-1

    Six wins will be good especially if one is u of O.

    • BlackBandits BlackBandits says:
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      Everyone needs to stop listening to Jenny McCarthy, and get vaccinated.

    • dwill03 dwill03 says:
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      Three effected people over the course of 5 months is considered an outbreak?

  • Micah says:
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    I don’t think it’s us being impatient it’s what should be expected. A bowl game is expected by most beaver fans this year and most of all I expected by Oregon state players Elu Aydon I have talked to personally swears that Oregon state will win the civil war this year and that they will be going to a bowl game he swears by it so much so he got into an arguement with a duck fan and said at the end of next season he will message the duck fan and show him the bowl game and the civil war win. I fully expect a 6-8 win season and anything leas is a failure in my opinion Gary Anderson expects excellence and I think in the next 3 seasons we will have 3 bowl games.

    • angry angry says:
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      I don’t necessarily disagree. I expected year 3 to be a large step forward, and if we had a heartier line I’d be very bullish. 6 is fair for sure, and GA is a winner who expects excellence and as fast as possible. Agreed.

  • G Joubert says:
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    Meanwhile if they had had what it took to have hired Jim Harbaugh instead of Andersen they’d have at least one bowl win under their belts already. Maybe two. So, color me unimpressed.

    • ughh says:
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      Harbaugh did not get to a bowl game until year 3 at Stanford. I give you a thumb down for not doing your homework

      • G Joubert says:
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        That was when he was a newbie. Maybe you missed it, or it was past your bedtime, but after he figured it out he took an otherwise nondescript and lackluster 49ers team to the NFC championship in his first season and to the Super Bowl in the next season after that. And that’s not even getting to the way he turned a complete loser like Michigan into a BCS team after one hard practice. But you go ahead on and keep making excuses for Andersen, the 4th best HS coach out of Utah.

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