First off: remember this is a Thursday night game, 7pm on Pac-12 Network.
Regarding the game, the Beavers only advantage is the bye week’s extra rest and home field. Utah wins every other category, most importantly coaching and execution/efficiency. Beavs are banged up and Utah can apply pressure. It’s not a good mix. Utah could have a letdown after the UCLA win. It’s hard to get up for this road game.
The teams are close and both have some issues, so turnovers will decide the game. To me, the Beavs are more apt to turn the ball over, but I’m going against my gut instinct and saying they don’t turn it over and Utah has a hangover.
30-24 Beavs
I think the corners will need to come up huge in this game. My guess is we bring more guys up on D to defend the run since that seems to be Thompson’s preference, but he’s also an accurate passer and will likely be throwing into single coverage. I like the matchup on Nelson’s side of the field, but as always, the other team will attack Scott, our weakest link on D.
I agree with Angry, turnovers will be key. I tend to think Utah will be able to scramble on 3rd down to get enough yards to keep drives alive. Beavs will need to minimize the time their D spends on the field.
28-23
I’ve got the Beavs in this one, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mannion spend much of the evening out of his comfort zone and throwing under duress, leading to multiple Beav turnovers.
I’ll take Utah in this one as good defenses make Mannion look bad. 24-17 Utah
Utah’s passing defense is not great giving up 260 yds per game. And guess what, we like to pass. They have sophmore corners.
Combine that with Utah only passing for 217 yds/game.
We have a shitty pass blocking offensive line. Utah likes to blitz. A lot. They lead the nation in sacks. The receivers are young and inexperienced. If the beavs can keep Mannion upright and he can find those big tight ends to throw to, you may be right, I keep picking against the beavs so I’ll keep sticking with it if they win.
http://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/index.ssf/2014/10/kyle_peko_cleared_to_play_for.html
the text in that link almost got me thinking the story was going to say he’s cleared to play now.
Conner has gotten alot of mileage out of this story. He just keeps adding the newest updates to the top, and the rest of the text is just carried over from the previous version.
Yes, only thing going for the Beavers is the bye week, but that is negated because Utah had a bye as well. I was hoping for some good news this week regarding injuries and eligibility issues, but nope. So there is nothing to feel good about here.
The only matchup that is favorable for the Beavers is the secondary against Utah’s passing game. Every other matchup is either equal (barely) or favors Utah. This is especially so for the coaching matchup.
I am not impressed with the passing game of Utah’s new quarterback (and likely starter). I don’t think he’s a good passer, and our secondary is too good for him to have a great passing day. But it doesn’t matter. They will read option the shit out of the Beavers, if the Beavers let them. And the Beavers most likely will.
Beavers lose this game.
Pretty much agree 100%. Yet I still think the Beavs win somehow. They always win one weird game per year that looks like an obvious loss, and this looks like the most likely one. Everytime Riley’s seat gets hot he pulls a win like this out of his ass. So even though it doesn’t make sense I think they’ll somehow win. I don’t see another W on the schedule…people think WSU is a win, but I don’t think OSU can stop their passing game.
Agree this could be Riley’s “upset” win against a ranked team, the win he gets every once in a while that reenforces his “underrated coach” accolades and OSU’s underdog mentality; both of which are bad for the program in the long run.
There have been a few times in Riley/Banker’s second stint where they kept mobile QBs under relative control, including once against Locker/UW at home and once against Utah at home with their mobile QB. In both cases, I think the opponents QB left the game with an injury. I am not hoping for an injury, I just think this might be the game where they (in the Banker relative sense) manage a mobile qb.
I question the wisdom of flipping OTs at this point, even if it is to address an ankle injury of one of them, and Riley better have his play-calling mojo workin’. Riley says OSU needs to be “assignment sound” to protect mannion, so that concerns me. Especially with the tackle flip. I wonder about the WRs ability to get open quickly for Mannion, but don’t think Utah’s CBs are particularly strong(?).
If I had to put money down, I’d say OSU gets a few turnovers and wins by 7 or less. But if a sack puts Mannion out of the game, it gets ugly. There’s no Vaz to spark the team in a relief role.
This is the kind of spot where the Beavs typically do well, that is, a home underdog to a team with approximately equal talent. Utah has a revenge factor in their favor. One of their strengths (special teams return play) should be easily negated by one of the Beavs strengths: punt and ko return coverage. Fan engagement and getting an early lead will be important. Not only is Utah coming off an unexpected victory in their division, they could be caught overlooking the Beavs in anticipation of the SC game (at home) on the horizon. A single turnover could be costly. A strong run game should negate another Ute strength, pass rush. Call me Polly, but I like the Beavs here, 24-21. A defeat, should it happen, could be potentially devastating.
This is the kind of spot where the Beavs typically do well, that is, a home underdog to a team with approximately equal talent. Utah has a revenge factor in their favor. One of their strengths (special teams return play) should be easily negated by one of the Beavs strengths: punt and ko return coverage. Fan engagement and getting an early lead will be important. Not only is Utah coming off an unexpected victory in their division, they could be caught overlooking the Beavs in anticipation of the SC game (at home) on the horizon. A single turnover could be costly. A strong run game should negate another Ute strength, pass rush. Call me Polly, but I like the Beavs here, 24-21. A defeat, should it happen, could be potentially devastating.
Game will entirely hinge on if Riley gets pass happy much at all. OSU can ill afford it and will have to run more than pass in this game if they expect to come out winners. This will help mean a couple less sacks for Sean which will be huge as after being sacked you only have about a 33-35% chance to still make a first down and keep the drive sustained.
Handing it back to Utah without atleast a few first downs will be deadly. Run more than pass by atleast 52% running and we can and probably will win. Get that to 55% and we are very likely to win. All about having the majority of OSU drives have best odds of sustaining by getting into good down and distance frequently. Once you get the right mix it maximizes everything and the offense will have success continually moving chains, controlling clock and limiting Utah possession as they are pretty good at this too with Erickson and their good RB.
Stick with this balance of more runs than pass all the way on marches and upon reaching the red zone and the same thing that got you there will allow most of these opportunities to result in TDs.
Go Woods & Ward and let them carry as much of the burden and leadership as Sean in earning a nice win on Thursday night. Go Beavs!
Utah is a tough team for me to grade. UCLA and Michigan wins on the road looks nice of paper, but UCLA has been exposed as an overhyped team and Michigan is awful this season, they have also have a loss to Wazzu.
Utah’s strengths of rushing the passer and a quarterback who can run expose two of the biggest weakness OSU has this season.
Utah is dangerous in the return game, but I don’t worry too much about that because OSU is very good in kickoff/punt coverage.
If the game is close I think the Beavers will end winning, I can also see Utah winning big which I don’t think OSU could do, mostly based on our style of play.
27-20 Utah
35-10 beavs just because
looks like jermel walker is committed https://twitter.com/DraftOrtiz/status/518783530751361024
he was a 2013 commit WR
looking at his twitter makes one wonder how many classes he needs to pass to become eligible. Yikes
OSU is now giving out student tickets in Section 9 and other areas of the west side of the stadium.
So Peko can finally get in the stadium. Hopefully theses are not on line tickets.
Peko does get into the stadium, and strangely, finds himself sitting next to a guy named Simi Kuli….they swap stories and laugh a lot….
Maybe they can study together for this “ongoing” class?
Beavers 26-23. Lettuce nails 42 yd FG as time expires
Letssee….
Beavs often do well as an underdog…..do well coming off a bye (this is a sort of bye)….both teams on an upswing with last game wins….
I think it hinges on Riley doing one of his occasional thorough coaching efforts, including energy to make adjustments at halftime. He can, but seems to often let the team hack it out as best they can. I have no idea why he operates that way, but it seems to be his mode of operation.
The trick is, there are tougher games coming up that he might save that effort for. He shouldnt wait, imo, as losing now will put us in a second tier mindset. Win and we can have aspirations for contending.
Come on, Riley….go for it!
Hey guys, here is some more accurate information about the television coverage: (btw the reason for all the confusion is the NLCS).
CORVALLIS — Oregon State’s Thursday-night contest against Utah at Reser Stadium, which was originally slated to air on Fox Sports 1, will now be simulcast on the Pac-12 Networks in Oregon because of a conflict with Major League Baseball’s National League Championship Series.
The Pac-12 Networks will carry Fox Sports 1’s broadcast of OSU-Utah on Pac-12 Network (national feed), Pac-12 Oregon, Pac-12 Mountain and Pac-12 Arizona. Viewers in Washington, the Bay Area and Los Angeles can watch the game on Fox Sports 2. The Pac-12 regional networks in Washington, the Bay Area and Los Angeles will also join the OSU-Utah game in progress at the conclusion of previously scheduled programming.
Additionally, MyNet stations in local markets in Oregon and Utah will also air the game. They are: KPDX in Portland, KEVU/KLSR in Eugene, Corvallis and Albany, KUBN in Bend, KFBI in Medford and KMYU in Salt Lake City.
off topic, but a hilarious bit on Lame Kiffin on tosh.0 tonight
http://tosh.cc.com/video-clips/9nihko/kiffin-s-krimson-korner
First game I get to go to this year. Already underwhelmed with the coaching staff this year, and like someone here said earlier I think it’s all downhill from here for the next few years. Just don’t embarrass us beavs ala Washington last year.
I posted the Tago video in the comments on the Pac-12’s facebook page on one of their posts. Many agree it’s a complete cheap shot. No comment from the Pac-12. No response from Ted Miller yet either. Sucks when you aren’t relevant. No one really cares. But if one of OSU’s players had done this to, heaven forbid one of USC’s 4 or 5 star blue chippers you can bet there would have been hell to pay.
I couldn’t get Canzano to bite either; had hoped a more local outlet would be likely to pick up what could be called a scandal. I think you are on target in saying that if things were the other way around the reaction would be completely different.
Sad thing is that with smarter in game coaching the Beavs would be relevant. Even the games against Utah and Stanford are winnable with smart coaching and would bring that relevance.
I tweeted the Videos to: The Pac 12, Feldmen, Maisel, Neuheisel, Goe, Canzano, Eggers, Wilner and for fun Machado (thinking she might spread it.)
Only person who responded was Goe saying “It doesn’t look kosher on film”
Good effort there.
Maybe someone can phone Canzano’s radio show and ask if he is going to question Riley on whether or not the Tago play has been submitted to the PAC12. Following that process would seem to be right up Canzano’s alley.
Has anybody gone after the dipshit who made the play? It was Max Tuerk, and he has a twitter account. Maybe we should all call him out
https://twitter.com/maxtuerk
also, aside from the Pac-12 facebook page, there’s also a Pac-12 Football facebook page, and you can post to their page and have it show up in the “posts to page” section.
https://www.facebook.com/footballiance.pac12
I’m not sure how I feel about going after the player. A different cat #72 did it to Grimble while he was engaged. So it’s being coached across the line.
but we can ask the player if they’re being specifically coached to do that, i don’t see the harm in that
http://www.oregonlive.com/collegefootball/index.ssf/2014/10/raise_your_hand_if_you_believe.html
Goe is keeping it moving a bit.
Kevin Gemmel took a stab at your question (if you’re Derek). I’m glad he brought it up, but he is unable to nut up and call it for what it was: deliberate targeting: http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=pac12&id=78660
that was not me. And yes it was a penalty. Rule states you are not permitted to lead with the crown of the helmet. It was a penalty that was not called, it was intentional (IMO) and Gemmel and USC can now fuck off. They’re afraid to call out Sark for fear of losing access to the almighty trojan football program. Fuck them!
I say next time the Beavs play them, We start taking out some if their players with cheap shots. You fuckers wanna play that way? We can too
Maybe you should bring it up in that context. What would they say if we did it to Leonard Williams and it ended his season? What would they say if it ended his career?
One and maybe both of those are the realities that face Tago right now. Cheap Shit Sark needs to be held accountable for this if not for the way his teams have played since he’s been a head man.
OT – Brady White, QB, and Trent Irwin, WR. Irwin has OSU in his top 5, sounds like a Stanford lean right now with ASU – where White has verballed – second.
White is the kind of QB it would be nice to see land at OSU given Riley’s reticence to pursue mobile QBs (McMarryon excepted).
Some comments RE White:
“Although White projects as a pocket passer at the next level, he’s athletic enough to hurt defenses with his legs. In a win over Canyon (Calif.) High on Friday, for instance, White rushed for 75 yards and three touchdowns.
Steve Clarkson, who trains White and is considered one of the top quarterback coaches in the country, likened White to Joe Namath and highlighted his compact throwing motion and improvisational skills. “He has one of the quickest releases I’ve ever seen and he’s deadly accurate,” Clarkson said. “But where people kind of get amazed is when he gets flushed from the pocket — his creativity really sets him apart.”
http://www.si.com/college-football/2014/10/14/recruiting-roundup-arizona-state-brady-white-trent-irwin
No doubt OSU will land Irwin and get White to flip…..HA!
OLive hasn’t said much about Bolden. I’m a little surprised we aren’t hearing about Bolden “rounding back into form” and the “return of OSU’s deep threat.” Also, wonder if we’ll see Hawkins getting some fly sweeps.
This is a game where Dockery, Mullaney, and Jarmon need to get open quickly and come through.
I’ve seen mention somewhere that he’s back to full speed and on 1st string.
Riley did mention last week that he wanted to be careful of what’s released to the media as Utah would be listening.
I want to see more from Jarmon. The kid is smooth.
I haven’t watched Utah much this season, but after reading their play by play against Michigan and UCLA, they seem to fully rely on turnovers and special teams scores. Their offense doesn’t seem that good – except for this QBs running ability.
I think the Beavs win the turnover battle at home, and as long as we play a fairly clean game, Mannion doesn’t throw multiple INTs, and the defense limits the explosive plays on QB scrambles, it should be a pretty comfortable win for Oregon State.
However, someone is probably going to feel screwed over by the officiating. I can see Utah sustaining a scoring drive or two due to questionable pass interference calls on 3rd and long.
Buffalo fires its head coach for his failure to meet expectations. He had signed a 5-year extension in 2013. Among the reasons – two losses to FCS teams:
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaaf-dr-saturday/buffalo-fires-head-coach-jeff-quinn-231045886.html
Man Riley’s got it good.
They played two FCS teams this season and won those games (Duquense and Norfolk St.), but had a bad loss to Army and now Eastern Michigan.
Kind of harsh though, their only non competitive game was against Baylor and I’m sure their defense took a step back with losing Khalil Mack. Turner Gill should still be there, he was insane to think he could turn around Kansas.
Good catch, thanks for clarifying. I misread that.
Anyone see the ESPN Pac 12 blog has been releasing weekly depth chart changes for each team, and this week for OSU Hollingsworth is starting at end and Wynn at Tackle. Interesting…
Hollingsworth is likely to play with confidence and a chip, I’m looking for a very good effort from him; Wynn is due (hate to admit it, but I’m leaning toward agreeing with Angry that Wynn may be the second coming of Frahm).
Disagree. Frahm did not have a mowhawk or a chainsaw.
Made up for it with his mouth!
Wynn is much better than Frahm.
Agree.
And water is wetter than air.
It’s probably the method employed in order to keep a MLB type player in the fold. Take out the big ugly and put in a flex player in order to keep contain.
Weather tomorrow shows no rain in the forecast all day, and the wind shouldn’t be much of a factor either. Sounds like it will be a nice evening for some football.
If I could only score some free tickets…
Connor goes a bit contrarian, sees less than 5 sacks for Utah and expects less than 25 combined carries for Ward/Woods. And, how ’bout this (zinger?) “Don’t be surprised if the Utes catch Bruce Read’s crew off balance more than once Thursday.”
http://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/index.ssf/2014/10/how_many_carries_will_terron_w.html
“Don’t be surprised if the [opposing team name here] catch Bruce Read’s crew off balance more than once on a day ending in Y.”
There.
Fixed.
OH NO!!!!!
WHAT”S THAT?
IT’S A BIRD! IT’S A PLANE! IT’S A FOOTBALL? SHOULD I WAVE AT IT? WILL IT HURT ME? COACH? HEY VERY WELL PAID GUY ON THE SIDELINE!!!! WHAT SHOULD I DO?
Went into the Mesquite sports book yesterday, went back to Utah with a giants/royals parlay winner, and a ticket for the Beavs to cover 2.5.
Just shot this off to MacIntyre. This is kind of fun:
@CoachMikeMac Tell ur DL to be careful this week Coach. This is the technique ur facing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymY9btLeuEg … and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKJfu6eoU0A …
OT – Geezus, watch this gif and see Steven Jackson knock a would-be tackler back nearly 5 yards…
http://www.thefalcoholic.com/2014/7/21/5923085/steven-jackson-interview-atlanta-falcons-2014-season
5 star preview here,
Utah –
Strengths – Utah has the momentum after beating UCLA on the road. Pac12 teams have been awful at home so far. Their running game is very good. Big back with a mobile QB has been the Beav’s kryptonite for a long time. Special teams has been great for them this year. 4 TDs on punt and kick returns. Pass rush is excellent.
Weaknesses – The passing game is very limited due to the QBs. Very little depth at WR.
Beavers –
Strengths – Home night game. Beavs have done historically well at home on Thursday night games (Not so much on the road) and as the underdog. The pressure is on Utah to keep their momentum going. The run game has gotten better.
Weaknesses – Losing two DTs vs a heavy run team will hurt. Mannion has not been able to step up and carry the team.
Keys to game –
On offense, the Beavs will need to control the clock and give the defense time to rest after non stop pounding from the Utah run game. This means sticking with the run game and Mannion making quick decisions with the ball. I think there will be more shotgun formations to counter the pass rush with screens and draws mixed in.
On defense, the game plan will be similar to Hawaii and PSU. Stuff the run and make the QB beat the defense with his arm. Utah’s WRs don’t have a lot of big play ability so leaving the CBs on an island might be ok. Expect Scott to be picked on quite a bit.
On special teams – Can’t allow the big play.
Who will win –
This is a tough matchup for both teams but the only thing the Beavs really have going for them in this matchup is that it’s at home. Utah has all the right ingredients to beat the Beavs. Momentum will be key. Beavs will not win in a slugfest. They will need to get off to a fast start and keep Utah’s offense on the sideline.
Going against what all the numbers say, the Beavs will somehow pull this one out in a close game.
Agree with most of this accept Dres Anderson can be a big play receiver if the QB’s get him the ball.
Horowitz tweets, “Oregon secondary coach John Neal: “At every level of football there’s an epidemic of bad tackling.””
Damn, hate to agree with an Uck!
Wait, D backs flying at guys like a missile with their head down and not wrapping up is bad tackling?
If I didn’t hate the Ducks already…….screws both my schools.
East Ridge star quarterback Seth Green says he’ll attend Oregon
Minneapolis Star Tribune? – 31 mins ago
Goe may be interested in following the targeting of Tago, in addition to the piece cited by WFO above, he puts this out:http://www.oregonlive.com/collegefootball/index.ssf/2014/10/wednesday_morning_news_notes_l_7.html
Comments are reflecting a lot of what we have discussed here.
GO GOE!
Yeah. Glad he’s following it up.
Phil Steele Report:
LY Utah had a 539-491 yd edge but OSU made a late comeback and won in OT 51-48. The
HT is now 4-1 with that one loss coming in OT. Both tms come into this one at 4-1. Utah
could go to Kendal Thompson at QB here after he gave them a lift in the UCLA gm while
Sean Mannion has just a 5-4 ratio on the other side. An interesting fact is that pass-happy
Oregon St’s leading rushers have 343 and 342 yds while their leading receivers have only
230 and 219 this year. Utah does have the ST’s edge. My computer says to take Utah by
10, but I lean with Oregon St. I will split the difference as the yards are fairly even.
UTAH 30, OREGON STATE 27
POSITION BY POSITION EDGES
Utah QB/WR vs Oregon St DB’s: ORST +0.65
Utah RB’s vs Oregon St LB’s: ORST +0.22
Utah OL vs Oregon St DL: UTAH +0.67
Utah DL vs Oregon St OL: UTAH +1.21
Utah LB’s vs Oregon St RB’s: UTAH +1.64
Utah DB’s vs Oregon St QB/WR’s: ORST +0.28
Special Teams: UTAH +3.87
Kicker: UTAH +0.84
Coaches: ORST +0.70
Total Edge: UTAH +6.38
PROJECTED BOX SCORE UTAH ORST
Projected Rushing 158 119
Projected Passing 163 247
Projected Yardage Total 321 366
Projected Final Score-PC 32 22
Experience Rankings 65 51
Team Schedule Strength 32 53
I keep hearing that Utah has a really strong run defense, but I wondered how true that really is. After looking into it a little bit I don’t think it’s that special.
They have a lot of sacks, which counts for negative yards. If you take those out I feel like it gives you a better picture of how easily another team can run the ball on you.
Looking at ESPN game stats for top two rushers for each opponent, Utah is giving up 127 yards on 27.2 carries. Idaho State ran for 193 yards against Utah.
UCLAs top two rushers got 149 yards on a combined 28 carries. Utah is giving up an avg of 4.669 yrd per carrie to primary tailbacks.
Meanwhile, Oregon States primary tailbacks have accumulated 688 yrd on 113 carries for an avg of 6.088. Averaging 137.6 yrds on 22.6 carries. – not sure why Connor L’s #s are different from mine – double checked the ESPN stats and my math isn’t wrong on excel. Connor got avg of 23.6 carries. Although I did this fast so I could have made a mistake somewhere.
Perhaps these numbers are meaningless and that is why they aren’t tracked like this, but it doesn’t seem like Utah is as stout against the run as they are made out to be.
The metrics guy has pursauded me – I’d like to see the Beavs carry the ball at least 30 times. But I suppose that is dependent upon the defense Utah shows. Only if they have 8 or more guys in the box should OSU pass the ball.
Hope the formatting sticks when I hit submit.
Utah yards Carries Avg.
idaho state 193 34 5.676470588
fresno state 101 31 3.258064516
michigan 88 24 3.666666667
WSU 104 19 5.473684211
UCLA 149 28 5.321428571
Total 635 136 4.669117647
Avg 127 27.2 4.669117647
Oregon State yards Carries Avg.
PSU 166 22 7.545454545
Hawaii 159 25 6.36
SDSU 102 25 4.08
USC 90 16 5.625
Colorado 171 25 6.84
Total 688 113 6.088495575
Avg 137.6 22.6 6.088495575
You only needed 1 line from the Utah stats to prove your point.
Utah yards Carries Avg.
WSU 104 19 5.47
If the Cougs can get over 100 yards on them, they’re not great at defending the run
Removing the lost yards from sacks has a meaningful impact, I wonder how many “negative rushing yards” UCLA had on 10 sacks for example. Utah’s run defense only appeared to be impressive against Fresno State and Michigan.
I agree, 8 or more in the box and somebody SHOULD be able to get open.
Thanks.
PAC12 officials are the worst not because they miss calls but the calls they do miss are game changing calls.
Calls are missed every game but to me it seems the ones the PAC12 officials miss affect the outcome of the game more than other conferences. With the turnover they’ve had, my perception of the officials has gotten better. My judgment is still pending though.
According to cfbstats (btw a great resource), the PAC12 is averaging 7.87 penalties per game per team. The SEC is 5.75 per game per team. BIG10 is 5.39 per team per game. BIG12 is 6.98 per team per game.
So the perception that PAC12 officials call a tighter game is backed up by data.
I think the Beaver TE’s are going to have to run really disciplined short routes and break some tackles. What I don’t want to see is Mannion taking a seven step drop on the first play of the game and getting sacked. Note to Riley…a 4 yard run on 1st down is actually a decent play!
I didn’t watch much of the UCLA/Utah game……did UCLA try any type of screen game? Maybe that could keep the Ute rushers off balance. They probably are liking their stats at this point and are excited to tee off. Use that against them.
Hamlett hardly gets any YAC. That is his major weakness. I have never seen a guy so big go down so easily.
MR will continue the seven step drops while Sean gets pummeled. He does not learn and will not change. Why hope? Our only chance is that the RB’s have a huge game in spite of the play calling.
Expecting a hot, steaming turd tonight at Reser. Hope I am wrong.