On Critical Thinking, Moving Toward Football Season, (General Thread)

Here’s an interesting take for our critical thinking process. I had a conversation with a friend about the fall, and he says a bowl game is a low bar for GA’s first year. But he couldn’t make any of his arguments without bringing up the past. Would that be emotion/self/hope? These are the points he brings up.

1. The offense will be more successful regardless of QB or QB experience. By any metric, we were near the bottom of the pile in offense over the last five or six years. Yards mean nothing without correlating first downs and points. When we have been good at one thing or another, it was because we had stellar athletes creating those numbers. It was not the system. In fact, the system was too cutesy at too many crucial times. It was so much so that you, me, opposing teams and everyone else knew what was coming in those situations. The new system is designed to keep defenses with superior athletes off balance. A good coach can make the new system work a majority of the time by stressing the success of the team as a whole instead of relying on the athleticism of a few. A great coach can do more.

2. The defense will be better for two reasons. First, they will be playing against a faster, more unified and more common offensive system. This is where QB experience will be a factor which helps them. An inexperienced QB learns the game by making a majority of mistakes in practice. The defense learns how to see and take advantage of those mistakes, and hopefully learn to force some of them as well. They will be in better condition, and they will be able to play on the fly if need be. Better is still a low bar compared to our past defenses. But it is what it is. Second, shifting to a three man front is more beneficial in today’s college game for many reasons. Like the offense, there will always be a dearth of NFL caliber talent on the defensive side. But with more offenses going to speed and misdirection, lesser bulk is necessary up front. LBs will be asked to make more athletic plays. But the down men can relax and play a simpler game. And even LB play may be overstated with he more common nickel (or cover 3) with that three man front.Speed on the edges is the equalizer on offense. Speed is necessary to counter that (given good fundamentals).

3. The coaching will be better. Yes, Mike Riley is the greatest football coach on earth and can do more with less. In fact, here’s a list of the coaches who consistently do more with less. Note that Mike Riley is number nine on that list. We would be stupid to get rid of anyone like that where we have recruiting disadvantages like beautiful landscapes, an intelligent and entrepreneurial populace, safe streets, temperate weather and a college-centric town. In fact, every time you look at one of these lists measuring more with less, be sure to not look at the coach sitting at number one on those lists while coaching at two different schools over the past three seasons. He doesn’t count any more because he’s at a different school than either of the two schools you see there.

4. Injuries and academics seem to be taking a lesser role in daily stories about the program. We won’t know until games are played if this is because there is less to report or if it’s because of the difference between the openness of the last staff and the policies of the new one. But my gut says the team is just better at caring for themselves than they have been in the past. And even if they are the train wreck they have been, a majority of the replacements for players who graduated last year are better football players than their predecessors. At full strength, our front three could be Grimble, Peko and Tago, with some pretty decent depth (compared to starters from years past) behind them. The coaches think the secondary is very strong. The LBs would be the question mark for now.

5. The schedule lines up decently. Michigan will have a new coach and system. While that coach is Harbaugh, we get them early. Two untested new coaches with new systems is a toss-up which should be given to the home team. But we’ll see. There’s a world of tape on Harbaugh’s system. GA’s system will be a mystery until we finally see it. Stanford at home on a short week and the week after they travel to USC. A bye before we go to Zony, and after they travel to SU. UCLA and UW at home. Many question marks at QB–not just us.

Nine wins (not including bowl game) would be a complete surprise. Eight would be great and a slight surprise. Seven is the number I like. Six would be acceptable. Five would be disappointing, but it would still be acceptable for the first year (only). Four wins would be a dumpster fire and about as likely as nine.

If Vegas gives me an over/under of 6.5, I think they’d be about right. And I would take the over.