Home Baseball Baseball: Oregon State @ Arizona

Baseball: Oregon State @ Arizona

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Probable starters for the weekend have not been released, but my hunch is the matchups will look like this:

Date Opponent Pitchers Time (PT)
04/01 Arizona Sam Gaviglio (5-0, 0.39) vs  Kurt Heyer (4-0, 1.33) 6:00 p.m.
04/02 Arizona Josh Osich (3-0, 2.74) vs Kyle Simon (5-1, 2.25) 1:00 p.m.
04/03 Arizona Ben Wetzler (3-1, 4.08) vs Tyler Hale (3-1, 2.70) 12:00 p.m.

Oregon State and Arizona have one common opponent (LBSU), and both squads took two of three. Arizona won in more convincing fashion outscoring the Dirtbags 18-3 (versus the Beavs more modest 15-7). Those numbers may seem meaningless since "a win is a win", but actually I think they provide good insight.

Arizona's wins have been slightly more routine, and they have beaten Rice and Arizona State. Right now, especially at home, you have to give them the edge in this series. That's a given. But my fear is that the Beavs will be swept. I'll tell you why: too much lies on Sam Gaviglio winning game 1.

If that doesn't happen, they will have to rely on Osich or Wetzler (or Nygren, *gasp*) to salvage a game. Do you have confidence in that happening? Maybe versus Hartford…I just don't see it happening versus good teams. Osich and Wetzler/Nygren are throwers who dig themselves into trouble. If the Beavs score in the 1st, they'll give back two in the 2nd. These guys just have that feel to them. Of the group, Wetzler has the most promise, but he's too green to win a meaningful game on the road.

So, my prediction is this: if Sam wins game 1, the Beavs take 1 of 2. If Sam loses game 1, the Beavs will get swept.

As far as whether Gaviglio will win the opening contest…God…tough call. I see a really tight game. The difference might be the amount of pressure on Sam to win that game…he could crack. The Wildcats have better mashers, too, in Joey Rickard (.481, 1, 18) and Cole Frenzel (.411, 1, 27) and have 41 steals as a team. Andrew Susac has been a mess behind the dish with 5 passed balls. In a close game, the combination of Arizona speed with a bad Oregon State battery could matter. Oh, and I forgot to mention: one of our best mashers, Jake Rodriguez, will likely miss the series with a fractured wrist.

Brace yourselves for the worst.

137 COMMENTS

  1. Oh, and I haven’t seen anything written about Poyer, but I assume he is off the baseball team since he practiced with the football team on Wednesday…?

      • Cliff blogs that Poyer decided to go 100% football. gazettetimes.com/sports/beavers-sports/article_04a6219a-5bb6-11e0-9628-001cc4c03286.html

        Good quote “I felt I (had to be grinding with these guys) and earn my starting spot”
        Sounds good.

  2. Glad we got a stream. Why the fuck don’t the universities collaborate and give us the full season… they all use the same CBS system. I’m certainly not going to buy the package for each of our away teams as well. Also, the audio feeds on osubeavers.com have a horrible hissing sound in the background…

  3. Looks like our suspicions about Gavillio were correct. He looked great VS inferior opponents. He is average in the PAC.

  4. 15-0? Wow. Whelp I’m not going to invest any more time or money on this ball club. I still have an ulcer from football season.

  5. Josh Osich pitches scared.

    Oh, and Beavs down 2-0 with Arizona looking for more. The sweep prediction is looking good right now.

  6. Beavers go up 6-3 on a Ryan Dunn three run home run. That ball barely got over but it did. What a difference a day makes.

  7. Big inning by Osich. Team needed him to throw a shutout inning and give them more confidence. Offense needs to add a couple runs, have Osich pitch into the 8th and have Boyd shut the door.

    • Didn’t hurt due to a really bad baserunning decision by Zona. Beavers need to be more sound defensively. Way too many mistakes.

  8. Big two run single by Andrew Susac. Gives the Beavers more breathing room for the bottom half of the ninth. Hopefully they can add a couple more.

  9. Brian Stamps almost hits a home run and hits a two run double to give the Beavers a 10-4 lead. That’s what I like to see.

  10. Good comeback against a good team. Now, time to focus on Butler/VCU. Damn, I wish BDC could have gotten Shaka Smart a couple of years ago.

    • Got it! Is there a chance the Beavers and Dodgers could both be good in the same year? Too early too tell, but a great weekend for both!

    • Yes sir, we are 2-1 right now against the defending champs. We likely won’t have much of a team left when the McCourts are done with them though. The future of this legal battle appears grim, likely leading to the sale of the team (after all of the stars have been pieced out to other teams through trades for cash).

  11. Michael Miller with a lead-off double and moves to third on a Ryan Barnes groundout to first. Hayes with an RBI groundout to first to score Miller. The ball from Miller hit the warning track. I thought he might actually hit a home run. Didn’t think he could actually even get it to the warning track.

  12. Susac with a single and Norris walks now. Would be nice to give Wetzler a 2 or 3 run lead before he throws a pitch.

  13. Berberet smokes a ball and UA’s left fielder makes a diving catch. It’s been that way for Parker the last couple weeks. Still a good inning. They scored a run and executed the fundamentals flawlessly. When they play fundamentally sound, they’re pretty good.

  14. Wetzler continues to struggle. His struggles have nothing to do with talent, he just always falls behind in the count and has to throw a fastball over the plate for a strike and gets hammered. He needs to learn to get ahead in the count so guys can’t look dead red for a fastball.

  15. Arizona’s pitcher was having a tough time throwing strikes to Dunn and on a 3-1 count Pat Casey has him bunt and gives away an out? Makes zero sense.

  16. Good job by Wetzler to preserve the 6-1 lead. He got ahead of the last two batters in the inning and they grounded out weakly. That is what happens when he gets ahead of guys. If he can consistently get ahead of hitters, he’s going to become a beast on the mound.

  17. Streaming a series makes for an enjoyable weekend. Especially when you win them! These early series are so imprtant for setting the tone of the rest of your PAC-10 season. Glad they fought back! Keep it up BEAVERS!

  18. Really impressed with the Beavers the last two days. Playing like the squad I thought they were heading into conference.

  19. Beavers load the bases with no outs and don’t score. That was a situation where they get too patient. Got to swing the bats and don’t leave it up to the umpire.

  20. I kinda think they should have bunted in a for sure run. Doesn’t matter if we win with 12 runs or 8. You have to jjust keep maximizing the % chance that you will winn. Now with them homering it is even more true. They may have been able to bunt in 2 runs last inning with the bases loaded and no outs. I just don’t get why managers really play small ball or they let the bast fly. It seems to be like you can choose to start playing small ball any time it makes sense to assure a victory and series win. Not nervous yet, but each run makes you that much more confident and would just have about guaranteed a win.

  21. That’s what happens when Wetzler gets behind in the count. He grooves a fastball and it gets crushed because he gets behind in the count. When he works ahead he doesn’t have much trouble, as 2nd through 5th showed. He needs to be consistent.

  22. I like this Arizona announcer…good voice. Nothing like drifting into a snooze on a Sunday afternoon whilst listening to a ball game.

        • Didn’t they start the season ranked like 14th? I know they are bad, but how does that happen? They were not good last year either.

      • I disagree, the Ducks have good pitching, and they’re feisty–hung tough the first two games with ASU. I don’t think they’re great, but they’re not bad. They’ll be middle of the pac.

        • Oregon is bad Angry. 5 straight losses and they haven’t been all that close. No offense at all. They will be something like 8-19 in conference play. To even be middle of the pack in the Pac-10 you have to be good, they aren’t. Oregon won’t sniff the postseason.

  23. You can bring in a new pitcher in the middle of an at bat? I thought you could only replace before the at bat starts.

    • No, you can make that switch. You can also switch batters in the middle of an AB…if you switch with two strikes on the batter and the new guy strikes out, it’s credited to the old batter, but if he gets a hit he gets credit. You can also switch from batty left/right (if you’re a switch hitter) before two strikes.

  24. I am shocked by Saturday and Sunday’s results. Beavs really showed me something, as I felt pretty strongly they’d get swept if Sam lost game 1. Never saw them winning 2 of 3 in any scenario…impressive stuff.

    • That embarrassing performance on Friday night seemed to wake the team up and get them focused. Last two days they held Arizona to 4 runs which is half of what they have scored on average. Team showing some mental toughness. Next week’s series should be a good one with ASU. I think they can win 2 of 3 but it will be tough one. At least the Saturday game is on tv.

  25. I would like to see the Beavs dispatch the Pilots and then get ready to battle ASU. Ducks got swept very effeciently by the Sun Devils. Can the Beavers at least get one game?

    • They really need to win that series at home against ASU. Taking 2 of 3 would be a great weekend and set them up for a great PAC 10 season. I feel Gaviglio will get back on track this weekend.

      These 2 in Arizona were a great start as well. This was a good Pac 10 team and to come to them and take two, especially after Sam’s debacle on Friday says something about the team’s mental make-up. Nice job Beavs.

  26. Gaviglio loses – badly – in Game 1 and the Beavs win the series. I admit that I’m surprised by that result, but I think OSU has a better team than anyone, fans included, are giving them credit for. The biggest concern might be that there isn’t a lot of postseason experience, should that become a factor. Already at 20 wins by first weekend in April. I’m cautiously optimistic…but would like to see a little more consistency from the offense. What happened to the defense Friday night? Was it April Fool’s Day?

    • Gaviglio was due for a game in which he got touched up a bit. Combine that with his style of getting the defense involved with fielding grounders and a rock hard infield, and we can probably guess that the team just wasn’t prepared for the conditions in game one.

      They adjusted nicely for the weekend games. They still had a couple mistakes, but they followed those with sound plays which marginalized the mistakes. Osich and Wetzler played more aggressively when they took the mound as well. They ran into problems when they fell behind, but that wasn’t as much as their good pitch placement and solid throwing. And our bats came alive as well. Even our outs were exciting hits that a lesser team than Zona would have watched through the gaps.

      I don’t know yet if it was a coming of age weekend for Osich and Wetzler since it seems they each alternate quality and poor starts. But it was really nice to have them both step up against a good team. Hopefully they’ve gained enough confidence to carry them through the remainder of the season.

    • It’s tough but he should be back with a week or two. Just needs a couple weeks to rest it and then he’ll have to play through the pain he’s having. Beavers won’t miss him too much though. Parker Berberet is a better defensive catcher and is the team’s leader in RBI’s and has gotten his stroke back on track. A few weeks back the losses of Jake Rodriguez and Andrew Susac would be big, but with the improvements of Ryan Dunn and Kavin Keyes and Parker getting back on track, the losses aren’t that big.

      By the Washington State series in two weeks Susac and Rodriguez should be back.

      I still fully expect the Beavers to win the series with ASU and to really get it rolling.

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