Home Baseball Baseball: Oregon State vs Belmont

Baseball: Oregon State vs Belmont

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Game time: Friday at 12pm Pacific.

I've heard some rumblings that Belmont is a dangerous team. I'm simply not buying it. Full disclosure: I've never seen them play.

But the numbers just don't back up the claim that they're a threat. With an RPI of 63 and a SOS of 131, they probably shouldn't even be in the tournament, and definitely would not have made it in as an at-large. Belmont's pitching staff has put up good numbers, when you consider the RPI and SOS I just mentioned it's clear why. They have above average arms in a poor conference. Meanwhile, the Beavers have above average arms (and Fry is an elite arm) in a power conference, and they've only give up .40 more runs per game.Given that Belmont hits .266 as a team with a .378 slugging %… Advantage: Beavers.

Obviously baseball is a tricky game with bad bounces, bad umpires, etc. But assuming those things remain within the norm, I think the Beavs win this game 9 out of 10 times. The one worry is that the offense has been inconsistent, and they might press/struggle in a big spot. The weather (heat and humidity) could be a neutralizing factor, too. Still, I love the Beavs in this game.

Prediction: 8-2, Beavs.

229 COMMENTS

  1. I think I’ll have to work from home tomorrow so I can see the game live. Looking forward to the post season. If the pitching can stay consistent, I think we’ll make some noise this year.

  2. I’m not worried about the team pressing too hard. The Oregon series was huge pressure and they did fine against far superior pitching.

    I’m not sure why people say Belmont is dangerous…this isn’t basketball. Perhaps it’s because they took 2 or 3 from then #15 Stetson, but Stetson was overrated at that point and finished with a marginal record.

    I feel fairly confident in a win, hopefully the weather isn’t absurdly hot.

    • The only #1 seed that matters is the one on the other side of the Super Regional bracket, Miami. I’ve seen articles that state if they win and we win, we might have a chance at hosting. If we advance and any other team advances, we’ll host the SR.

      • OSU hosting if they get by LSU will only happen if Miami loses. There’s pretty much a 0% chance the Beavers host a SR if Miami wins their regional, so, go UCF and Missouri State!

  3. How do you think the Beavs will hold up with the temps in the 90’s and the humidity? I’ve been there during this time of year and the humidity is a killer.

      • It really got to Gaviglio last year and in Gainesville in 2010, but didn’t bother Wetzler too much last year. He has to pitch the afternoon game but I think he’ll be fine. I think the offense will score their share of runs, going to come down to the pitchers. The 2nd game is critical. If Jace Fry can put together a big time performance against LSU and the Beavers beat LSU on Saturday night, I think the Beavers will win the regional. LSU will have to use up their bullpen and I think the Beavers would beat them at least one of 2 games. So Saturday night is huge, I like the Beavers’ chances, the “experts” seem to think they don’t have a chance but I think they win this regional. They come in playing really well and that is always big heading into postseason play. Beavers are the hotter team and are playing their best ball.

        Really looking forward to them getting it started tomorrow afternoon.

    • I assume the trainers are onto how to hydrate, replenish etc. There are certainly enough drinks on the market. My favorite is coconut water – a natural electrolytic balancer. In Latin America (where I will live in my next life), as many of you know, one purchases a coconut, pokes something sharp into where the stem was connected and drinks the water from a straw. It costs approximately 25 cents. In the US, Coca-Cola markets almost the same amount for nearly $2.

      The heat will surely affect the team – not sure how long they’ll have to adjust and I don’t think people who grew up in cooler climates ever do. I somewhat liken this to when the teams go to Colorado – the advantage goes to Colorado on both ends. Visiting teams struggle but when Colorado goes to lower elevations, it’s a plus for them.

      I really like the Beavs 2012 baseball team. Go Beavs!

      • I think we all know by now that a coconut only costs a dime and that you put a lime in the coconut and drink them both up. According to the doctor.

      • Current forecast for Baton Rouge at game time Friday is 85/86 with humidity 43%; for comparison, in Corvallis the forecast calls for 75 and 59% humidity.

        Having spent time in Louisiana and Virginia I do agree it can be miserable but with these forecasts in mind I am more concerned with the teams reaction to the size and enthusiasm of the LSU crowd (assuming the Beavs put Belmont away).

        After last weekends performance I’m with GB and Angry in expecting the Beavs to get past this regional. I’d feel even better if that Sports Psychologist we’ve called for was on hand but Casey is a pretty good stand-in.

  4. do we know who’s going to be on the mound? i almost wouldn’t mind seeing starr start the game with an extremely short leash and child ready to come the game in the first or second inning. if it works out, wetzler, fry and child will all be available to start with a win already under their belts.

    • Supposed to be announced soon. I think Wetzler starts tomorrow afternoon, but I could see Casey going with Fry tomorrow and letting a guy like Wetzler go Saturday cause he’s more experienced and has been in that type of atmosphere before.

  5. Yeah, the team has to feel good about itself.

    …but what would Mike Riley say…. ..no, dont tell me.

    Has anyone heard Casey talk to the team before a series, a game or the playoffs?

    • Haven’t been asked to attend a team meeting lately but Casey’s public statements give some idea of the areas he would cover with the team.

      Things like the players making it easy to prepare a line-up card by their performance and his belief that “individuals win games, TEAMS win championships”. Oh yeah, and, ‘don’t ever miss high especially when you have a 0-2 count.’

      • Riley. “This is a neat deal for our team. We really don’t think we can win because we are still trying to find our identity as a team. However, it will be a fun environment for our guys to play in. Ryan Katz is still our starting pitcher, even though he only threw three pitched his last game.”

  6. Isn’t this game supposed to be on Comcast sports NW? I looked at tomorrows tv lineup and the babe isn’t on there.

  7. got to work tomorrow, but if anyone could post a link that would be sweet.

    to boss “yes, I’m working. This just looks like a baseball game.”

  8. Sounds like starter won’t be announced ’til tomorrow. He just said it will be one of the lefties (Fry or Wetz). I think it will be Wetz, having Fry available for a possible elmination
    Game is reassuring.

    Bryant is officially not going to be closer, it should be by committee, look for Davis and Schultz to get shots.

    • Schultz appears to be the closer as he did have a couple saves over the weekend, but he’s a guy Yeskie and Casey go to for 2+ innings for his saves. I’m fine with that. I like Schultz and Davis, everyone else is shaky.

      • Unlikely Casey can get through the weekend without using some of those “shaky” guys. A real test of coaching ability (and some luck) here given that some guys need a batter or two to settle down and others just keep fading as they dig a deeper hole.

        • I think the starters are the key. The Beavers need their starters to pitch deep into games, so they can hand the ball to their more reliable relievers, that’s going to tough with the heat though. I mainly would prefer they not go to Brocker, probably Bryant too. Everyone else should be fine. Brocker and Bryant didn’t pitch in their weekend sweep. Not sure that’s a coincidence.

  9. Regarding the Louisiana heat, the Beavers will have a bit of a respite at least for today. I live in Lafayette (40 miles from Baton Rouge), and we had a big storm blow over last night. Today is much cooler and less humid than it has been for the past several weeks. That’s not to say that it still isn’t ridiculously hot and humid compared to Corvallis, but southern Louisiana can be a hell of a lot worse.

    On another note, am I the only Beaver who’s going to be in Baton Rouge this weekend for the tournament? Did anyone else make the trip down, or happen to live close enough a priori?

    Craig

  10. I am in the office today and thought it was going to be on ESPN3 on the web but no such luck. Are there any websites streaming the game live?????

  11. Beaver Baseball ?@Beaver_Baseball

    @beaverkman Jace Fry

    When asked who was starting today, it looks like it will be the Rookie. Aaron Fit said Childs would go Saturday, but I find it hard to believe that Wetz would be pushed back that far unless he’s not completely healthy?

    • I like it. Really important to win the first game and LSU is almost all right hand batters, so hopefully Child can match up well against them. Also, Wetzler has been pretty shaky lately so maybe a few extra days of rest can help him out.

  12. Comcast has rights to this game, but are showing paid programming commercials instead in many areas. That should be illegal- and rights to air forfeited. It’s all about $ and Comcast sucks.

  13. Matthews-CF
    Smith-SS
    Conforto-DH
    Barnes-LF
    Dunn-3B
    Gorton-C
    Keyes-1B
    Davis-RF
    Tommasini-2B

    Where is Jake and Danny????

  14. Is the osubeavers.com a free audio stream today? Fry gets out of top of 1. 0 hits, 0 runs but two walks, left them on 1st and 2nd.

  15. Dylan Davis at Right Field, Conforto at DH, no Danny Hayes, Gorton at Catcher.
    End of 1st, 3 up 3 down for beavs. I’d love a video link…

  16. I’m not sure I like the choice to free swing Davis after playing small ball so well. We were in Brookshire’s head, and making him pitch through a Davis AB would have been beneficial.

  17. Fry gives up a walk on a 3-2 count, he is throwing too many pitches IMHO.
    Third time through the order and Belmont is seeming to see the ball better.

  18. Bryant coming in, as Fry is pulled for possible physical problem. OK, Angry, hope your faith in Bryant is rewarded right now.
    Maybe coming in with such short notice will be good for Bryant’s head. ala Rulli being pulled from the jon the other day to get his first RBI.

  19. Beavers can’t catch any breaks. Conforto has an injury that won’t allow him to play the field, this takes Hayes out of the lineup, then Fry has to leave the game early with an issue.

  20. I’m going to call head games by Casey plus an injury replacement gives the reliever extra time.

    I’m thinking Fry is being held due to pitch count and will possibly be thrown later this weekend if needed. I’m surprised he got as deep as he did against Diamond being the only L in their line-up. Diamond has been effective against Fry thus far.

    So I call sly old dog on Casey.

  21. it’s easy to say it after the fact, but even though he only gave up one run fry didn’t seem quite right. right i’m very thankful that this isn’t an elimination game.

  22. Barnes with a bunt on the safety squeeze and it stays fair hits the first base bag. Matthews scores. 2-1 Beavers. Barnes reaches and the Beavers have runners on first and second and 1 out for Ryan Dunn

  23. Bryant is a good pitcher, guys. He had some bad outings, but he also had 1.5 years of dominating production. He changes speeds wonderfully and hits spots. A really crafty, old-school style of pitching. I like him. (Watch him get rocked now haha)

    • He hasn’t really been hitting his spots effectively for about 2 months though. Who knows? Maybe Yeskie helped fix his mechanics and get back to the pitcher he was early this year and last season. He’s keeping the ball on the ground today. 4 of his 5 outs have been ground ball. That’s where he lived when he was at his best. A very good sign there. If he returns to old form, that really helps the Beavers’ bullpen.

  24. Boyd playing set-up for Davis? I don’t think Schultz is a closer. Besides, I’ve always loved Schultz for his middle relief abilities.

    • Schultz can pitch 6-7 innings over the course of a weekend. If he pitches 1 today, then he can still be a long set-up guy later in the weekend. I think Boyd can pitch about 4-5 innings in a weekend as well. Need Child and Wetzler to go 7+ innings.

  25. And like that, Davis out. I could have sworn we would get a feel for Boyd, then that switch would happen to bring Davis to the mound.

  26. Beavers win 2-1! A really tough game for the Beavers but any win is a good win in the postseason. Bullpen was clutch today.

  27. A bit of a nail biter but a worthwhile game in prep for the rest of the weekend. Hitters have seen a very good pitcher, Boyd and Bryant gain some confidence and, everyone’s head should be right now.

    Forearm cramp or Casey trick? We’ll know soon enough.

    Still would like to see Hayes and Conforto both in the line-up but can’t take a chance on either finishing the season immediately with an injury.

    Not sure why Davis was pulled from the outfield late in the game, he has shown a great arm from right field all year. Doubt it was to get a little rest in prep for pitching later.

    Weather likely to be more of a factor Sat/Sun.

  28. A good tough win. Good pitching and defense. No errors. That’s going to go a long ways in the post season.

    Glad they went with Fry. Always need to start the best pitcher in game 1. Never “save” a guy because you think the first game is a gimme.

    Hopefully the injuries for Fry and Conforto are minor. Now they have over 24hrs to rest up. Scout the other team and come out swinging tomorrow.

  29. Bullpen putting it together. Last 13 2/3 innings they’ve allowed 0 runs, 6 hits and 1 walk. They’re coming around at the right time. If the bullpen continues to pitch like this, the Beavers become even more difficult to beat.

  30. Score from the Coral Gables Regional of importance: Stony Brook leads Miami 6-2 in the bottom of the 7th. Beavers definitely want Stony Brook to win the regional. If the Beavers win Baton Rouge Regional and Stony Brook wins Coral Gables Regional, Beavers would host next weekend.

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