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For those who missed this article

174

I once wrote that the Beavs were quietly building a good roster, because they were.

http://angrybeavs.com/football/6613

Some picks are wrong. e.g. Katz the obvious mistake (though he is doing great at SDSU so far). Also, I like Murphy more than Watkins or Lagrone (no longer on the roster), and Zimmerman changed positions, etc. But overall I think it was a good analysis for the time, given what we knew.

Now, do I think we're going to the Rose Bowl this year? No. But back in 2011 I could see the recruiting class was good, and the roster talent was improving via recruiting and 2012 attrition. This goes along with my other posts describing why Riley would have the Beavs at 8 wins again. I'm not bearish on Riley if you want max 8 wins (in a 12 game season); I am bearish on Riley if you want BCS games, a Rose Bowl, etc.

I hope this post helps clear that up. I see many people writing "eat crow, Angry!" as if Riley has accomplished greatness, or I'm completely blind to improvement (see the date of that article: I noticed the improvement long before many fans). I'm excited about the 2-0 start. I saw the 2012 team being good a while back. Again, if you are content with 8 wins then I can see why you love Riley. For those of us who want BCS games, you can hopefully see why we don't love Riley.

Now, moving forward…I'm thrilled with the season thus far. The attention to detail, intensity, execution are all at 90% or so (well above past levels), but still not elite. Riley calling plays–something we begged for here–is making a huge difference. Bray and Brennen are adding intensity to their units. Confidence is high. I'm loving what I see. But, it's all with a grain of salt since Riley's at the helm, and I know he has a cap. Sorry, I just will feel that way until he proves me wrong. It's what, 12 years and he hasn't, so I'm going with proven history over speculation, hope, etc.
 

174 COMMENTS

    • This year has had a lot of unusual improvements though (even relative to Riley’s 8-9 win stretch), including:

      Winning in September
      Winning the opener, and the conference opener
      Stopping a mobile quarterback (1 data point is not a trend, but showing the ability to do it is new!)
      Improved defensive schemes/deviation from base defense (You can complain that this should have been done sooner, but the point is it’s being done now, and the results are good. A lot of what we’ve seen this year is stuff that you’ve been calling for for some time.)

      It’s only two games in. But I think there is reason to believe that this team has a higher -and maybe significantly higher- ceiling than those of the 2006-2009 period.

      • I’m tickled and enjoying the success so far. I agree a 2-0 start looks better than our past starts. I agree the team looks very good thus far. Etc.
        But nobody can convince me, through words, that Riley can get OSU to a BCS game. He has to do that himself (by doing it!). Enough with the speculation, hope, etc. Just do it, Riley, and I’ll shut up for good.

    • Think of it like this. We are going to lose 2-3 games we could have / should have won. This will probably be due to mistakes by Riley IE misuse of timeouts, leaving points on the field(poor red zone play selection) or killing the last minutes of a half when you have a chance to take a few deep shots and maybe get in field goal range. A good coach would not make those mistakes, and therefore win 10-12 games while Riley will win 7-9.

      • Well are we saying Riley is good but not great, or that he is not even good? I view getting 7-9 wins in the Pac with any consistency as the mark of a good coach, but obviously there is another level to bust into that Riley has not been able to (though you have to admit he has been close). So point taken, other than your use of the word “good,” that Riley has not taken OSU to the next level.

        I am open to a detailed analysis of past games, but I would like to see how you can really, with a straight face, attribute 2-3 losses per season solely to Riley’s in-game coaching blunders, given how many variables go into winning and losing a football game. Making the general observation that you don’t think Riley manages time-outs well is one thing, but capping Riley’s potential based on the arbitrary selection of 2-3 losses per season arising solely out of these mistakes is silly. And shouldn’t Riley get credit for the first 8-9 wins in your scenario, unless you think that pretty much any asshole could get those wins?

        • IMO its the thing about how hard Riley applies himself and makes his staff work.

          I see all the blogs about he is a great coach and the players grew up etc etc…….and dont buy it totally. Yes, some of that is true, but I think he went into a funk for a couple years.

          As to a win cap….. well, I think he sometimes does this during a season, and loses a game he should win. So yes, I buy that. He CAN coach but sometimes….

          In any case he has had many seasons, and some very good players, and no BCS bowl. He can change that perception, like Angry says, by DOING IT. Who knows, maybe this is the year??

      • I was pissed at the UCLA game in the stands just before halftime. It was embarrassing! Never take the foot off the gas until you have 4th quarter and are up by 3 TD’s minimum. Not in today’s football.

        • You don’t want to make a silly mistake and go into halftime with the momentum going to other way. It is a time for somewhat conservative play if you have the lead and there is less than 5 minutes remaining. That being said, if you can’t run the ball it can look at bit ugly. Hoping that gets better as our offensive line improves. If your behind it is also a different story.

    • Gotta agree. How does that work, exactly? He only has X coaching skill in him, which declines after every good play? Or he gets to 8 wins and then takes a break? I don’t get it. Also:

      “After starting the 2006 season 2–3, the Beavers went 9–4 on the regular season, including an upset of #3 USC in Corvallis. The Beavers completed their impressive season with a win over Missouri in the Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas, ending their season with a 10–4 record.”

      Seems like his “Cap” is a bit higher than 8 wins.

      Finally, I looked on CFBMatrix.com, which has a simple stat for the impact of a coach: whenever you’re favored to win and yet lose, you get -1 point, and when you’re supposed to lose and win, you get +1 point. Riley is 13th in the entire NCAA, at +1.6/year. Chip, by comparison, is only +.67. Yes, “Worse” teams get more benefit out of this system because they aren’t favored very often, and therefore have more opportunities for upsets, but for OSU in particular, it actually rewards us for our continual tough non-conference scheduling. Most of the coaches ahead of MR are hihgly regarded, which means we should probably give Riley a little more props as well for being in their company.

      • That CFBMatrix stat for coaching effect is very accurate, but you’re mention of the “worse teams are favored more” is more important than you let on. If Riley’s teams were favored more often than his coaching effect rating wouldn’t be as high, but that means we would be winning more wouldn’t it? Why is a team not favored very often? Because it is not very good!

        Secondly, enough about Riley being highly regarded in the coaching world. Of course he is, he is a great guy who has a great job with a lifetime contract and doesn’t have to meet any significant benchmarks.
        Yes, he also wins more than he should with the talent he puts on the field… HE PUTS ON THE FIELD. College coaching is also recruiting, something he has floundered at a few years ago and paid the price with two consecutive losing seasons.
        Looks like he has righted the ship in both his recruiting and his coaching. He’s gotten off the couch and the results are starting to show.

        • I agree. Those stats, like many posted college football stats, are significantly meaningless.
          I don’t feel Riley has a “Cap”‘. But i do believe in the almost to roses depression theory.

          • Significanly meaningless….. wish I had said that……lol.

            Riley seems to be really different this year. No soft and mushy start to the season….calling the plays … pretty much the same players as last year but playing like they mean it.

            I hope he can keep this up in coming years….might be roses in our future.

      • “How does that work, exactly? He only has X coaching skill in him, which declines after every good play? Or he gets to 8 wins and then takes a break? ”

        OK, OneEye, I’ll take a shot. Riley’s conservative play calling and penchant for making little to no adjustments during a game do not always result in a loss. The play calling at the end of the first half last week is an example.

        So, he does have “X coaching skill” but it doesn’t decline after a good play. It just doesn’t always determine the outcome and many here figure it does result in a loss often enough to contribute to 2-4 losses per year.

        The discussion is about what the value of “X” is.

        BTW he certainly doesn’t “get to 8 wins” and then take a break, he took a two season break! I continue to believe that something was distracting Riley during those two seasons and am glad he seems to be back on board now.

        • I think the cap has more to do with the old PAC-10 schedule. When you beat up on each other in conference so much it makes it hard to come out unscathed and injury free enough to get enough wins. This is more true with the Beavers since there has always been depth issues. I think this is getting better, mostly due to
          A) Recruits as a whole getting better just due to better coaching at all levels
          B) Fewer league matches
          That being said, I think depth will continue to be an issue(offense only) due to complexity of the offense that the Beavers run under MR. It has its Pros and Cons. Although the better coaching at lower level could also help this situation. Hopefully MR is also back from his depression and fully engaged. In which case I believe we will win a lot of games in the next few years, and get to that BCS bowl. Then angry can retire! :)

  1. I love the start, but find it to be somewhat misleading. Many fans believe that we’re now capable of going undefeated! As much as I want to experience another BCS game/championship from my Beavs, I don’t know if we (Riley & Co.) have bucked the trend of coming up short after only a couple of quick wins.

    Still I remain insanely optimistic after experiencing the way our guys (defense) have been playing. It’s clearly something that we haven’t seen in some time. With the way college athletics have turned though, I wouldn’t hastily give up the pride that I have in my university/education to allow the tarnishing of what Penn St./USC/SMU/Nikegon have accomplished for the short term gains of fame and fortune.

  2. If Riley were able to get the recruits that some of the larger schools are able to attract, he would get us into a BCS game. Corvallis is like a mom and pop store competing against Walmart. We have to settle for the unheralded recruits, e.g., Poyer. The fact that we can find and develop the kids like Poyer is amazing. I am old enough to have lived through all of the losing seasons and futility. What Riley has done is amazing. With the exception of a few seasons, he has made us very competitive. I would take eight win seasons anytime and not gripe about getting to a higher level bowl game. I am just happy that we are competitive on a fairly consistent basis and I do not have to endure decades of losing. Put this thing into perspective and stop griping about not having the nicest house on the block. Riley is the best thing that has happened to Oregon State and I will be concerned when he eventually leaves. He has done this against the odds of being in a small town with a limited budget. He should be heralded as a savior and not an inferior or average coach.

      • And some of those places Norman OK, Happy Valley PA, etc etc have a loooong history of success. OSU does not. Big difference!

        At least OS has actually been to a BCS Bowl. Cal hasn’t been to a Rose Bowl in 50-60 years and never a BCS Bowl and AZ has never been.

  3. I saw an interesting tweet from I believe hunt, saying that no PAC 8-10-12 has gone to a bowl game following a 3-9 season. 2-0 is great, but history is working against us. Hopefully this continues to fuel this team. Looking forward to this weekend game.

  4. Watching Stanford vs Washington…this cardinal QB can’t complete a single pass, he looks horrible. They’ve gone 3-and-out 5 times through 20 minutes. How are these guys #8?

    God I hate preseason rankings.

    • Depending how we look against UA Saturday I’m getting optimistic about our chances against Stanford (which I believe Angry called awhile ago). They really don’t look very impressive so far against a UW team they should be killing.

        • Was working on a project tonight and didn’t catch any of that game.
          What I saw of Washington–good QB, bad everywhere else, especially defense. I just checked espn and they’re raving about UW’s D…I think Stanford just has a bad O.

          • gotta give props to Angry on his call that Stanford would fall back, now even in spite of their misleading win over SC. Nunes is a bottom quartile QB talent, in conference and nationally. Let’s just hope he doesn’t get replaced by the time we play them. Oddly enough, Beavs can take encouragement from both sides of last nite’s outcome. Based on our first two games we ought to be able to duplicate Wilcox’s “jam the box and make the QB beat us) (essentially the UCLA strategy) and I think we can hang with the Huskies too.

  5. Katz is not doing great. That’s a reach. They’ve played one team who isn’t bad in Washington and he looked bad. He wouldn’t have good #’s if SDSU played decent teams. Still holds the ball too long and has shaky accuracy. \
    The analysis was solid, you underrated Wynn but that happens. Cooks was another but he hadn’t played for OSU when you wrote the article.

    • I don’t think Wynn had played yet, either, though. I did mention he had a shot to get in there since Fernando isn’t that good (though, Fernando was a decent 3rd down rusher last year–not sure why he hasn’t been used that way this year).

      • True. Beavers are using Fifita a lot this year, especially on third down. That’s surprising. I liked Fernando as a third down rusher, little bit like a poor man’s Slade Norris.

      • Wasn’t Fernando injured for some time during the summer camp? One thing that I noticed is that they have on occasion moved Wynn to the inside on passing situations. I like it.

  6. IThe “cap” concept for Riley is something I’ve agreed to in the past. But when i read this thread, it occurred to me that maybe only Harbaugh has achieved BCS status without cheating. So would others- Carrol, Kelly, Tedford (suspicious, not caught) be handicapped a couple of games if they were as ethical as Riley? Is part of Riley’s cap being ethical in an unethical sport? Kelly is a tremendous coach, and could have achieved bcs status without cheating, it just would have taken a little longer.

    And i don’t excuse riley’s clock management and other shortcomings listed above, just a thought.

  7. Bottom line concerning college football is…….you WIN and you receive. You WIN and go to BCS bowl you get national attention, recruiting quality players improves, money rolls in through donations, TV, marketing sales, etc. A wining coach who states and reaches high goals of BCS bowl games and even national championship status is a plus recruits are looking at. A lot of recruits with talent want to move on to the NFL after college and wants a college and coach who can help him achieve this.

    Riley is a nice guy. (this has nothing to do with good football). He may be a good coach but he will always settle for far less than other coaches strive for or achieve. As a coach he has his inharent weaknesses. He plays too conservative at times, he doesn’t like his quarterback to run with the ball, he doesn’t like to throw on 1st down and he depends on his defense to win the game too many times. We have had players in the last 12 years who could have been in contention for the Heisman trophy, but it seems like Riley doesn’t like to promote a campaign towards this and I do not know why. Players with talent dream of wining this award.

    Right now Riley is fighting for his job. He is capable of wining games but not capable of getting the Beavers to a BCS bowl or national championship no matter what caliber player we have. Remember Riley has a 12 year record to prove this point. I for one want to see the Beavers attain a standard of wining, being in contention for Pac12 championship and BCS bowl status at least every 2 to 3 years.

      • Get a life Sad….I’m a disabled vet with some war time problems. Are you a vet. Have you fought to protect America? I seriously doubt it. Others out there, please forgive my occasional mistakes.

        • And the stories continue… you are the one that needs a life. First you were going to pick up tickets to the game, then you were watching it at home with a bunch of ex-players. You don”t make any sense, which means you are probably making a lot of things up. If you are a disabled vet, then I thank you for your service. It still doesn’t excuse your nonsensical posting of the same garbage in every thread, or the lack of using a simple spell check plug in. We enjoy all sorts of opinions on this site, but say something new or interesting. Don’t spew bullshit, we see that a mile away.

      • If I were to catalog and publish every spelling, grammar, and homonym error (to name a few examples) posted on this website, they would fill a funny mistakes book. If you have issue with Fightingbeaver, well and good, but please cite something other than his twice misspelling winning, not to mention inherent and calibre.

        • Thought it was pretty obvious, and had been addressed in other threads and we don’t need to be feeding the Trolls…but if you must…
          1) Riley sends players to the NFL nearly every year, usually multiple(I believe 25 current NFL players). There are few programs in the country that mimic an NFL playbook and the Beavers are one of them. This leads players to have a real head start in how they might pick up an NFL offense. NFL teams like that. So if they are smart, then OSU is on their radar. To say THAT is the reason that kids would choose another school or coach is nonsensical. Kids may want more flash, that is a different story.
          2)Riley is a nice guy, but citing that his goal is not to win is just silly. HC get paid millions of dollars a year to win. Riley has made poor decisions on a number of fronts, but its not because he is a nice guy and doesn’t want to win. Everybody makes mistake… winners learn from them and change. I hope that is what is happening at OSU. Again a silly, nonsensical point.
          3)HC has little to do with Heismann campaigns. These are typically marketing driven. We haven’t had a winner since Terry Baker. The Ducks have never had one despite a huge spend on marketing(Joey Harrington… really?). Is that where you want your donations going? There is a lot of bias(east coast, conference, etc) on this and I don’t think it brings in any more recruits then anything else.
          4)I assure you Riley is as capable of winning a national championship as any other HC in the country. Given the talent, that is. We have spewed on the trouble we have had with recruiting. I think recruiting has become easier, as the national talent level has increased. This is due to the level of coaching that young kids are getting today. More to your point, Riley took at program that had decades of losing seasons into a consistent winner. The last couple years have been a let down, but every program has some down years. Keep in mind Riley is 5-1 in bowl games as a HC. He can win the big games, unlike his more rotund duck HC “Chipper” Chip himself. What is his bowl record again?

          Hopefully that was what you were looking for helmsley. FightingBeaver will continue to troll I am sure. Just trying to keep things on topic and relevant.

          • Mud&Sticks,

            You must not be paying attention. He has been called out before on multiple occasions for inconsistent stories, posting the same thing in multiple threads, unsubstantiated information stated as fact, and just generally posting absolute rubbish. I like differences of opinion, but if it isn’t relevant to the conversation, isn’t new/different, or is inflammatory for the sake of being inflammatory then its probably a Troll post.

      • If I were to catalog every spelling, grammar, or homonym error (to name a few examples) on this website, I would have enough material for one of those funny mistakes books.

        If you have issue with Fightingbeaver, please cite something other than his twice misspelling winning, not to mention inherent and calibre.

  8. No Beaver love during halftime show. Both picked UA… even though the Beavers have been able to beat UA even in down years(11-2 I think).

        • Well, having Andrew Luck probably played a small role in Harbaugh’s success. Did anyone really think Stanford would get another QB the caliber of Luck? I thought Nunes would be better but players like Luck don’t come around too often at any school, really.

          • Hargaugh is a top notch coach, he would have gotten Nunes playing at a much higher level than he is now. He has turned Alex Smith into a pretty darn good quarter back.

          • Zero comparison between NFL and college QB’s. Look at Harbaugh’s first two years and Tavita Prichard was his QB and was awful. Played about how Nunes is playing right now. Harbaugh is a great coach, no denying that, but he’s had a QB look pretty bad as a starter when he was at Stanford. David Shaw IMO is getting more criticism than he deserves. Nunes is a first year starter and struggling. That happens. It’s gonna look worse when you go from Luck to this.

    • Stanford can play some defense and run the ball and because of that they’ll probably win 8-9 games but when teams are capable of stopping the run and forcing Stanford to throw (Oregon State, Oregon), Nunes cannot move the ball through the air. His accuracy is awful.

  9. Sorry Angry, I know you don’t like us using these threads for talking about other teams games, but noone is in chat.

    Stanford doesn’t look like #8 worldbeaters that everyone thinks they are.

  10. National championship or nothing. Are these the only metrics? Do we live in a two dimensional world of lines and dots? What is wrong with 8-9 wins? What is wrong with living within your means? What is so great about selling your soul for the sake of one more win? In nature, the strategies for success and survival take many forms. Success is mostly measured as efficient use of resources. Striving for 12-0 with no other goals and objectives where values are thrown out the window,is, frankly, boring.

    • I dont see much NC talk on here except for joking.

      And I dont see values need to be sacrificed to get to the several BCS bowl games once in a while.

      What is so valuable about the player attitudes last year? Did our coaches give them great values for adulthood? Values were sacrificed last year, in being a loser.

  11. Angry, we’ve agreed all along that Shaw will lead Stanford down a losing path.

    It’s too bad UW had to be so spanked by LSU this year. Stanford and USC were Not great and over rated, but it figures that PAC will lose all national credibility by beating each other up in conference play. And that will start to limit Beavs rise in polls despite winning and winning. Gotta win at UA, but I refuse to rationalize anything short of title game, until we lose the first one. Until that happens call me a dreamer and a beaver believer.

  12. 2 years out always looks awesome. You always say to yourself, damn we got the sophomores and can only assume the redshirt frosh and frosh will contribute

    Do you guys forget how excited everyone was about 2010? This was 2008 and people looked at it like quizz was there, james was there, mitchell and all them were going to develop, we had the classes from 07 and 06 success coming in and all we needed was a qb either katz or lalich…oh wait

    Just look at how awesome 2014 is looking: mannion, wynn, storm, agnew, cooks, all the redshirting olinemen, crichton, zimmerman, murph, welch, all the young talent at te. Does that mean this is a 5 win team? 6? 7? 8? 8+? I have no idea because for all I know Mannion, cooks and crichton leave for the nfl, welch has a career ending injury and the schedule turns out to be a bitch

  13. Going with Oregon State to take down the Cats on the road and get OSU to an impressive 3-0 start. The game should be very entertaining and tight for most of the action. I think it could come down to a late field goal in the waning minutes and OSU has the edge with the more reliable kicker. OSU’s defense will have to come up with some key stops, but I think Bray has them playing ferocious enough to make the big plays when needed. If OSU comes away with mostly touchdowns when deep in the redzone, it should be just enough to earn another big road ‘W’.

    #18 Oregon State at Arizona (Pac-12 Networks)
    http://beaverbyte.com

    • I’m going with the blow out victory for Beavs. Huge national talk, and then strangely be ignored and underrated in rankings as the wins 4,5,6,7 pile up… But drop one of these next 5 and I’ll guess we lose again right after.

      • Looks to me like the media loves the OSU resurgence story, and the thought of lowly Beavers possibly taking down the mighty Ducks come CW time. Could others be tired of the UO glitz and brag? LOL…..say it aint so….

        So I think if we can chomp down a few more wins, we might be seen as the second coming……lol.

  14. i’m on the road and want to watch saturday’s game on the pac-12 network online, is this possible? i have the xfinity app but keep getting the runaround and still not able to access the channel. any thoughts/ideas? local sports bars all have directv so i know that won’t work either.

      • I don’t bother with alerts. I just have a basic Twitter search for “Oregon State” open in a back tab. Every half hour or so I scan the tweets for anything that looks interesting and not redundant.

        I picked this up two weeks ago.
        http://oregonstate.edu/ua/ncs/archives/2012/sep/%E2%80%9Cmemristors%E2%80%9D-based-transparent-electronics-offer-technology-future

        It was a Friday release, so it may not have received the attention it deserves. But this goes back to the breakthrough OSU had back in about 2005-06 with “clear” electronics. The DOD, HP and NSF put a lot of money into this field after that, and memristors came out of that research. We’re talking next generation tech here.

        Then there was the wave energy research set up near Newport. Early reports (probably overstated) say it could supplant 10% of the world’s traditional energy sources. And there was the waste-water power cell developed over the summer. With water treatment accounting for 4-6% of US power usage, that could be a more than major breakthrough.

        And OSU’s creative writing department was named one of the top 25 in the nation.

        But I digress. The reason this story came up is because another Beav saw the article and tweeted the link with #oregonstate.

    • At least it wasn’t for performance reasons. I think we all know people who got caugt up in the party scene and were just never able to recover. Maybe, he can get his school work in order and return as a JC. Not sure what the rules are for when you flunk out for returning.

  15. This was great, thanks for posting.

    Ever heard of Tennesse Williams, Kurt Vonnegut, or any of the other 40 plus pulitzer prize winning authors?? No because you think vampires sparkle…

    Nice saved by the bell reference as well.

  16. I heard something a week or two ago that has stuck with me. Not sure where I read/heard it but I think it has a lot of merit.

    PAC 12 defenses are largely designed to stop a spread offense. The only teams in the PAC 12 that run a pro-style are USC, Stanford and OSU (I think). This should make it increasingly difficult to stop our offense since it is not seen very often and teams are not built to do so. I feel like Mike Riley sticking with traditional football and not jumping on board with the latest fad caused some pains over the last few years, but it now seems like it will ultimately pay off.

    If we build a defense to stop a spread as well, and we see it often, it should get easier. Our defense will only have to face 1 or 2 pro style offenses a year vs everyone else playing 2 or 3. Plus our D gets to see pro-style every day in practice.

  17. I was listening to an archived podcast of the Joe Beaver show and Jon Warren mentioning some changes on team’s availability to the media this season. There used to be a Tuesday media luncheon that been scrapped. Players are only made available Mondays and Thurs. And no more Mike Parker-Mike Riley interviews on the day of a game. This particularly is interesting since they alluded that this game day interviews been going on for the past 12 years. Instead the Mike-Mike interview will be done on Friday.

    So it does look like there is a bit of culture change going on with the football program this season

  18. Set forth below is a post from this afternoon’s ESPN PAC-12 Blog. http://espn.go.com/blog/pac12

    Not judging this one way or the other. But the fact that ESPN is suddenly posting conjecture about the 2013 Beavers being darkhorse contenders for a national title — well, that’s quite a change from what we’ve been seeing the past few years on ESPN and in other mainstream media. Sure, it’s all just “buzz”, but “buzz” can prove useful, especially in recruiting impressionable 17-18 year old kids.

    ——————

    Franklin from Columbia, S.C., writes: Living in SEC land, I admit that following the PAC12 is a guilty pleasure of mine and after watching the the Oregon St. – UCLA game and listening to all the recent talk about Oregon’s other team, I decided to take a look at how they stack up for next year. Am I crazy or does the CFB world need to be put on notice about the 2013 Oregon State squad? By my count, they figure to return 8 starters on Offense and six on Defense. Their O-Line will remain in great shape with Fr. Center Isaac Seumalo’s ability to play any position (to account for Sr. Colin Kelly’s departure). They’re incredibly deep at WR and TE and look to have no problem accounting for Markus Wheaton and Colby Prince graduating. On Defense, they seem to rotate their second string on about 35% of their plays which will help account for the loss of CB Jordan Poyer, S Anthony Watkins, and LB Feti Taumoepeau. The only question seems to be how they will replace the 6-3 354lb DT Castro Masaniai. Their schedule stacks up favorably playing Washington, Stanford, and USC in Corvallis and no world beaters on their OOC schedule. If they can pick up a JC transfer or two…. dare I say, that squad may just be National Championship material.

    Ted Miller: I noticed this, too, when I was writing about the Beavers Thursday. There are a lot of nice pieces coming back for the Beavers in 2013, including quarterback Sean Mannion, his entire O-line and some key guys on defense.

    That said, there are some important parts that need to be replaced: wide receiver Markus Wheaton, both starting defensive tackles and cornerback Jordan Poyer. Most folks would consider Wheaton and Poyer the Beavers’ two best players, and they also are good leaders.

    Still, Oregon State certainly appears to be trending up after a two-year downturn. Not sure if I’m ready to list the Beavers as potential national title contenders next fall. But it’s early. If they end up winning nine or 10 games this year, they certainly will be in line for a nice preseason ranking.

  19. I’m going to take the “Riley depression/performance” one step further.

    I think what we’ve all witnessed was Riley in his second stint as a beaten coach. He left for the NFL and just couldn’t get it done. Maybe it was management dealing a bad hand. Maybe it was his philosophy failing.

    Regardless, he came back to OSU with something to prove to himself, not the fans. Anyone who has watched this fandom can attest to the fact that most are hunky dory with 8-9 wins per season. That level of mediocrity can be driven into a coach by the fans instead of just the coach accepting it and leading it from the get go. As stated many times here, why try when you already get a pass?

    But I’m seeing something different this year. I don’t know if it’s a chicken/egg thing with the players and coaches beginning to have simple fun playing a game. But the players themselves have to be given huge kudos for being so prepared for this season that Riley shut down installment more than a week before the first scheduled game.

    Maybe it’s players like Poyer, Mannion, Cooks, Wheaton, Crichton and Wynn leading this team to be ready for everything coming into the season. Those kids seem to have their heads on straight, and their attitudes toward the game itself have been nothing but stellar all year. Maybe they told Riley straight up that they were just not going to be denied a good time on the field. Maybe Riley heard them and adjusted his own attitude as a result. Maybe he sees his grandson and sees that having fun at playing a game is the most important attribute any of his teams could ever have.

    And what’s more fun than winning?

    All accounts of Riley are that he’s a brilliant football coach. But why have we seen lapses over the years which we non-brilliant football coaches would not have made? I think Riley has been in a funk for longer than that iconic pic of him looking up at the scoreboard in the 2009 CW, nearly in tears. I think he’s relied on his knowledge and the fans’ mediocre expectations just to get by for almost a decade now.

    I think he has awakened to a new life altogether. He has always had the tools to succeed. He has only just understood that to win a game he needs to finally use them to the fullest. His style is not a half-hearted “aw shucks” in defeat and technical wins here and there. His style is for his team to have fun, win, and then to be the premiere “aw shucks” guy in the nation.

    And everyone will eat that up 1000%.

    I think he had this back in 1998, and that’s why OSU started to turn around… and why he got hired away to the NFL. I think it was beat out of him in the NFL. And I think any technical prowess he may have retained during that funk may have disappeared for a while after two successive CW losses.

    I think he may be back more than ever, and I don’t think it was just a switch flipped by him. We all talked about the importance of recruiting kids like Wynn and Ward during that period. We all thought a winning attitude came from winning, and those two would add a spark if nothing else. I think they and others (Cooks?) have added more. I think Riley now sees he can be “aw shucks” and have fun at the same time. In fact, it’s not that he’s flipping the bird to everyone who wants to make fun of “aw shucks,” but he’s put it in hyper-drive also. It’s sincere. It’s organic. It’s just who he is.

    But I don’t think OSU has had the full benefit of Riley as a coach up to now.

    And I wonder how all the sycophants bought in before now.

    This is just a devil’s advocate stream of consciousness. I want to buy in always. I want to stick “aw shucks” down the throat of everyone we face.

    We’ll see.

    • Great thoughts Jack. Hoping you are right, and at least an arbitrary glance at the facts seem to support that. Here is to potential greatness and the fun we will all have watching the Beavers achieve it. Cheers Beavers, Cheers!

      Now that being said… lets kick the holy hell living crap outta some Wildcats!

      GO BEAVS!

      • Looks at the past aren’t arbitrary. They just provide what they provide. I think someone responded to “coaching effect” on CFB Matrix as “arbitrary” also. I think they had the term wrong there as well.

        Numbers are what drive true prognostications. If you don’t have the numbers, then the argument can be made on a subjective level. Numbers may be selective, but they are still true. Just provide different numbers to counter them.

        Many of the experts say OSU can’t handle a premiere passing attack. Those same experts are ignoring 372 yards by Hundley last week. Something’s gotta give.

    • Good points all Jack but in particular I concur with “And what’s more fun than winning?”

      I’ve been the best on a bad team and the worst on a good team and I had the most fun winning.

    • This is why sites like this are great, you can speculate on anything and everything, but that is all that it is speculation.

      I agree there seems something different about this team, and the thing that I sense is confidence. That could come from what you said a more preparedness or better leadership. Last season was “awkward” your team leader lost his job and now you have to lean on freshman who didn’t think they would be in that position. This year the roles are defined.

      What also hasn’t been mentioned is the death of his father. It is possible that Riley was distracted by seeing his dad’s life crumble, and it took him a whole year to come to terms with his death. Because he seemed very comfortable when he finally did pass. Maybe in some way it has allowed himself to dedicate the season to him. Then there’s the Fred Thompson passing, the team has put some energy towards that.

      Then the new hires, may have also added some necessary cynergy to the staff. Perry might be a good bouncing board for ideas and different schemes and what schemes might work with the current personnel.

      So all these things could be factors. This team does have a different feel, maybe things will fall into place. Maybe its just because we have never had a winning September? I want to enjoy the ride take it game by game so I don’t miss anything. We still need to see how this team will react when it faces adversity or realizes its not invincible.

      Arizona is a tough team and its a mean environment down there, we have our hands full. Their Defense is not very deep, and they will be down two OL, and I think Matt Scott’s has a sore hip. So, we might be able to exploit some of those things, but we have to clean up quite a few areas ourselves. Let’s root for it to happen.

    • nothing truly memorable but the “tonal quality” was entirerly positive; both Rome’s and Riley’s. I’ll never forget driving to Wisconsin last year and listening to Riley on Jack Arute’s show. It was a real downer; you just knew (or should I say he just knew) it wasn’t going to be pretty. As hackneyed a trope as it is, Riley seems to think this team has found its identity. I’m willing to let it roll.

  20. I attribute Riley’s regression to his “loyalty”. The OLine recruiting during the previous three years was pathetic, that should be a support staff function. The Langsdorf project was a disaster and the new coaches are having an impact. Still not a fan of Cav. Riley’s problem is he has more loyalty to his staff than the team. Very surprised to see angry justify himself.

    • Very surprised to see angry justify himself.

      It’s not like I enjoy it, but the Pollyannas are coming out of the woodwork acting as if I/we thought the Beavers would win 3 games forever. I just think they should pipe down because (a) it’s only two games and (b) I/we have said time and time again the team would be back to 7 or 8 win mediocrity at some point.

      Also, I think it’s pretty cool that the prediction from 2011 looks good right now.

      Anyway, this can all change with one bad game. I’m not too high on anything except the energy level, execution, team chemistry…all much better.

      Agree with you about loyalty. I’d add stubbornness to that, too. He didn’t want to admit Langsdorf was a failure until he absolutely had to (noisy fans this off season, found himself on hot seat lists, etc). Stubbornness with recruiting, too…going after the ‘Rudys’ of the world and giving them way too much rope. There is what I think is a clear correlation between Gilstrap dying, subsequent recruiting classes plummeting, and Riley failing. Dude did not pay attention to recruiting and wound up with a bare cupboard. That’s all on him, though–signing legit pac-12 players is part of the job.

      • I just think that those who don’t see Riley’s shortcoming at this point are either ignorant or stupid. No amount of reason or logic is going to persuade them. The funny thing is that even if I was a duck fan I would be critical of my program. That’s just how I live my life. Continuous improvement is necessary as there is no perfect system. Life would be rather boring if I just accepted it for what it is.

  21. When Mora came aboard at UCLA, he medical furloughed/dropped 6 guys. Why? Suspicious cases. Also, I suspect but have no proof that the Beaver via SMU medical furlough could not qualify for SMU because he could not pass the physical at SMU and they did not want to spill the beans or spend the money on him. SMU then gave Klemm the job of quietly dumping him on someone else

    • I don’t think it would make any difference. The sooners have 2 wins at #16 and both of those wins are over less than stellar programs. OU was lucky to get past an unranked UTEP, but is still #16. This whole rating system sucks. The people who pick these schools so high preseason are trying to justify their early season choices until they can no longer hold on. USC and Stanford could still be ranked higher than OSU after this week with the same number of wins and 1 loss apiece. I think the rating system helps perpetuate the the premium programs. We need a playoff system where “every” league champion goes into a playoff bowl system.

    • Interesting thought. I think the fact that the Beavs are 2-0 and only against ranked opponents is beneficial in gaining national buzz. Beavs are currently the darlings of the national sports media, which bodes well for us when they cast their votes. Honestly, this In-n-out trip was probably the difference between #18 and #19. A win at Arizona tonight will get them talking even more because next week a win is virtually guaranteed. 4-0 and close to the top 10 would be incredible.

  22. Last year when Riley said he was going to do a thorough investigation of the program ( paraphrased ). I wonder if part of that discovery was to take back play calling, and maybe take a look at his own actions. He has gone for it on 4th a lot more than they had previously. He slammed his headphones down when Mannion let time run out. He had a challenge against UCLA, I don’t think he threw 1 red towel all of last year. And Maybe he looked at how they had been blaming the kids for the teams woes, because the coaches are all blaming themselves now. I think at least the environment is more positive and more conducive to winning. The thing that has impressed me most with this team is the tackling.
    Go Beavs ( And Welch be sure to thank the Wildcats for a good time )

  23. Man I’m excited for this game. 7pm can’t come quick enough! I’m sick of hearing all the naysayers and just plain Beaver haters spew their shit. I’m taking Beavs 57-14, and we get some Vaz time- by choice not circumstance.

  24. A key to tonight’s game, I suspect, will be the condition of QB Matt Scott’s hip. Scott banged his hip in Q1 of last week’s game against the Ducks, and he was ineffective for the rest of the game. If Scott’s hip is still hurting, the Wildcats’ offense will be severely hampered, and the Beavers are highly likely to win. If Matt Scott is fully healthy (which I doubt), this game could be close, and come down to one or two key plays late in the fourth quarter.

    Because I think Matt Scott’s hip is still bothering him, I like OSU in this game. Beat AZ tonight, and OSU moves into the Top 15, and gets yet more attention and love from the national media. Bear down, Beavs!

  25. Here’s a bit on the senior Mannion, who mentions Sean’s ubiquitous presence on the sideline. Coach Mannion is doing well so far. I’ve always maintained that Sean’s status as a coach’s son was important to his impressive play last year and his calm in the pocket.

    http://portlandtribune.com/pt/12-sports/115946-a-mannion-is-winning-at-silverton-too

    I like the late start time for this game – think it favors the Beavs ,who seem to be taking the game very seriously. While it should be challenging, I expect a Beaver victory tonight. I am really hopeful that AZ’s less than stellar run D provides the opportunity for Storm to get rolling.

  26. OK..back from my self-imposed suspension, properly humbled for daring to predict a ULCA victory.

    I too was very excited about this 2012 team My optimism dates back to 1993. I wrote then, on a very early version of angrybeavs. “Somewhere this year a baby boy was born that will develop into a 6’4″ 215 quarterback that will lead us to prominence in 19 years. All we have to do is find him and get him to come to Corvallis. In addition, somewhere there is a 40 year old, mild-mannered, prematurely balding assistant coach that will lead us to a championship in 2012.” I saw this year building a long time ago.

    Being superstitious I will predict; Arizona 35 Beavs 28. Predicting an Arizona win will assure another Beaver “upset”. JB

  27. Anybody else catch the Oregon State commentary on Gameday today? Desmond Howard claimed David Pollack is “sippin’ that Beaver juice” when I think he meant to say Kool-Aid. It’s already got it’s own hash tag on twitter #Beaverjuice and is showing up in various articles around the interwebs. There’s even a little Snoop Dogg remix with it thrown in.

    http://deadspin.com/5947553/desmond-howard-talked-about-beaver-juice-this-morning-on-college-gameday

    It was especially funny live because the rest of the hosts had a hard time keeping a straight face and Desmond seemed oblivious. Hopefully the full clip shows up somewhere soon.

    • By the way, just got back from being out of the country for the last 3 weeks and haven’t seen any news about what’s happened during that time. Did I miss anything?

        • Thanks man. We went all over the Mediterranean. Italy (Florence, Pisa, Lucca, Naples, Positano, Amalfi, Pompei), Greece ( Athens, Crete) and Turkey (Ancient Ephesus ruins). It was great, but at the same time its nice to finally be back in the states. Driving is insane over there. Pure anarchy on the roads, but somehow it seems to work for them. Its also nice to be back in a place where you can understand the background conversations going on around you and it all just doesn’t sound like noise.
          Really surprised by this Beav team and am happy to be coming back to some good news. Can’t wait to finally catch my first home game of the season next week. It’s gonna be noisy at Reser again.

  28. And boom! Just in time, the magical football god has seen fit to allow me to find a buddy with Comcast who will let me jump on his account to stream the game tonight. I love when things work out.

  29. In Scottsdale right now enjoying the 90 degree weather. So excited to see this night game on person. Every time I come here I am reminded of the sheer density of attractive women as compared to the northwest. Got to keep my shades on so the wife doesn’t slap me. Go beavs!

  30. One other thing I noticed for this game. AZ defense is fast. they fly to the ball. and the way to counter speed is to go right at it. A little more power football tonight should be in the works and maybe some misdirection if they start over pursuing.

    • Riley’s offense is a thing of beauty when it’s clicking. The way he mixes the pass and run can make a defense look silly. I’m sure he’ll be able to exploit their weaknesses. I think this game sets up well for the Beavs. 38-24. Opening it up a little bit more each week.

  31. Hey there this is somewhat of off topic but I was wanting to know if
    blogs use WYSIWYG editors or if you have to manually code with HTML.

    I’m starting a blog soon but have no coding knowledge so I wanted to get advice from someone with experience. Any help would be enormously appreciated!

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