The big takeaway from Friday’s game, for me at least, was that Smith hasn’t made any progress in understanding when to go for a 4th down and when to take points. The problem with analytics is they don’t specifically analyze your team. So if the probability of a 4th down conversion is X, that is the aggregate of all teams going on 4th down. If you parsed that out and removed the elite teams, you’d be left with a much, much lower conversion rate. Also, it doesn’t factor in play call. Again, elite teams calling good plays (i.e. great OCs) with superior athletes are going to skew those numbers.

Unless the analytics say the Beavs make 80% of 4th downs when calling play X, it is completely useless. Yet, Smith continues to use it. And fans continue to support the decisions with the notion that analytics supports the call. This is completely wrong. We have a stupid head coach. A guy who thinks he’s being edgy, understanding da maths, and meanwhile is the fool who is playing the math against his own team.

Really bad situation. Smith factor is now -2 wins per year, just as the Riley factor, but Smith’s ceiling is higher so we can lose those games and still win 8 or so. Sad situation. Smith has rebuilt the program, but the reality is he will never understand the nuance in analytics needed to master in-game decisions, so at some point Beaver fans are going to have to ask he hands over the baton to a more standard coach (Riley 3.0!!!?).

The other topic worth discussing is Ben Gulbranson. I’m not willing to write him off entirely, but if Nolan is ready to play, I think Ben needs to sit and learn. Even Gebbia is probably a better option. Early in a QBs career they can make you look stupid. One good game, one bad game, rinse and repeat. I’ve seen flashes of brilliance and then whatever that was on Friday. All I can say for sure is he’s inconsistent, and that requires more seasoning, so if you have a more seasoned option then use it.

Oregon State 27, Cal 24 (If they can figure out the QB situation by Saturday).

Gooo Beavs.

28-21, good guys.

I read through the previous comments, and see there’s some angst about the Beavs being ranked for the first time in ten years, and also some fear of Penix. I’ll start by saying the Beavs have a good team. That alone should solve both sources of angst. If you have a good team, there should be no stress about being ranked – you belong there. If you have a 6-2 team in the PAC, it means you have faced good QBs and beaten them already. There should be no fear about facing more good QBs. So, I get it, Penix has looked pretty good, but he’s been facing relatively weak competition. If anything, Penix should fear the Beaver. As Beaver fans we are too traumatized to realize this works both ways.

We know what Penix is. A feisty QB with wheels who will play hard and win games; a QB who’s passing game has improved every year, but is still not elite in that regard. We know what the Beavs are. A feisty defense that will pressure QBs and let their secondary play free. A run game that’s been steadily improving, along with WRs who have been steadily improving. So Penix isn’t the only player improving. We have key guys doing that, too. Therefore, the wildcard remains the Beavers QB. The only thing we don’t yet know is how good Ben Gulbranson is. My eye test says once the game truly slows down for him we might wind up with the best passing QB in the conference. Since he’s not there yet, let’s say we get 70% of that [future] guy.

So we’re looking at a future PAC 12 passing champ in Gulbranson who is at 70% his potential and improving rapidly, a nasty Beavs D and run game, WRs who are improving every week, a really good Beavs secondary and pass rush, and we’re afraid of an opponent who has put up some numbers versus questionable teams? I don’t see it. I think the only thing that can stop the Beavs on Friday is the Washington crowd overwhelming Gulbranson in his toughest environment yet. But he doesn’t seem like a guy who is easily phased. I think he’ll play at at least 70% of his potential yet again, and that should be good enough given the other pieces the Beavs have.

So, personally I have no fear, and in fact I’m upping my prediction from 28-27 Beavs to…

31-24, Beavs!

Go Beavs.

With the bye it’s likely Nolan comes back for this game. Could be a distraction. I think Smith has to have the difficult talk with these guys. Big elephant in the room. I think the plan has to be start Gulbranson and have him on a short leash. I think that’s the plan for either QB. If Nolan starts, he has to be on a short leash, too. I’m in favor of Gulbranson. He’s got more upside and has been very good outside of some normal mistakes for a young QB. Shows a lot of promise.

If the Beavs were at home I’d like them in this game, but on the road it’s a toss up. I think Washington is overrated and not that great a team, but their QB will cause some problems, and the environment will cause some additional problems.

I’d take the Beavs 28-27.

Go Beavs

45-17 Beavs