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Oregon State @ Wisconsin (2nd Half)

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This loss is on the coaches and offense. The QB circus killed all momentum.

I'm having a hard time understanding why both the coaches and fans (who have seen him in person) rave about Mannion. The guy throws a wobbly spiral, holds the ball high near his ear, has a long delivery (was told he compacted this…yet another pre-season hype/lie) and short arms it. He looked okay on short passes, but I'm left wondering what people saw in practice that I am not seeing in the game.

The performance component is Mannion's fault, but to be fair he's been put in a position to fail.

I feel bad for the defense. They're playing well for the most part (i.e. 1st and 2nd down). Given the offensive performance, they must know it's futile, so you have to wonder how long they can keep it up. As always, they can't get off the field on third downs. Appeared to be demoralized as the half approached.

After the game, the ardent Pollyannas will rave about the first half run defense, latch onto Fernando's sack, and whatever other positives ensue. Post game, Riley will talk up Russell Wilson and say the team needs to find their identity. It's predictable, just like "run left, run up the middle, pass short of the sticks" is predictable. Everything is predictable.

Urban Meyer & crew are all over Riley, having an aneurysm watching the Beavers. If a Hall of Fame coach criticizing the program is not a sign to the delusional Pollyannas, then nothing will be.

For me it's not about winning and losing. I could deal with loses if the team looked like a D1 team; if the team was prepared; if the team was fun to watch; if the coaches played their best players; if the coaches adjusted schemes, etc. I am not sure I can make it through this season. Not because of the loses, but because of the coaches stupidity and my ensuing frustration. The Beavers absolute failure to execute basic football.

Riley has dropped the ball, folks. The circus is officially in town.

Oregon State @ Wisconsin (Game Thread)

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Considering the opponent, time zone, and QB upheaval, like you guys I'm not expecting a good day. Earlier in the week I tried to make a case for how the Beavers could win this game. Speed on the edge and kick returns are the two advantages I see. However, after rethinking matters, I just don't have faith the Beaver's coaches will exploit that. They'll remain true to their rigid beliefs (e.g. pounding the ball up the middle, face guarding WRs, etc) and fail to make pre-game or in-game adjustments. Three times is a trend, so this is the trend several times over.

I just don't see the Beavs slowing Wisconsin's run game; therefore, if the Beavs are to win the game, this is what needs to happen:

  • Great kick and punt returns to shorten the field
  • Take the crowd out of it with early success
  • A +2 turnover ratio with good returns into Wisconsin territory
  • Exploit the edge w/speed
  • Convert 3rd downs
  • Stop Wisconsin in 3rd down passing situations (i.e. force at least 4 Wisky punts)
  • Fake punt for a 1st down or TD

If the coaches go to Wisconsin thinking they can play a standard, balanced game they'll leave with yet another early season, out of conference, blow out loss. This game will require both creativity and passion to win. Those are two of the staff's biggest weaknesses. Wisconsin has a better coaching staff, game plan, QB, RB, and offensive line. Wisconsin's LBs appear slow, and their secondary is questionable, but I have no faith that OSU will exploit those vulnerabilities. I expect to see Ward left, Ward up the middle, followed by a predictable pass short of the first down marker.

Until the Beavers win a big road game I refuse to pick them. The question is how bad the loss will be. I think the Beavers have a much better defense than UNLV, so that combined with Wisconsin's penchant to run makes me think this will be a short game. Translation: Wisconsin won't have time to run it up too bad. I think the Delta will be fairly large (25 points), but Wisconsin won't reach that 50+ stratosphere that many are predicting.

38-13, Badgers

Wisconsin Pre-game thread #2

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The pregame post was getting cluttered, so here's a new area to comment.

Any topic is fine.

Gameday thread will be available tomorrow at 7am.

Oregon State @ Wisconsin (Pre-game)

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The Beavers have many things going against them in this game. The early kickoff, lingering injuries, undersized linemen, scheme, coordinators, etc.

It is hard to make a compelling case for the Beavers.

Even so, I do feel some excitement about this game. It's due to the Beaver's two advantages: dynamic wide receivers and the return game (i.e. special teams).

To win a game of this magnitude, OSU will need turnovers, big plays on special teams, and the stable of dynamic WRs to show up. In my mind the game comes down to those three things. I know people believe the game will be decided by Wisconsin's offensive line. From the Badger's perspective, that is probably true, but I'm not sure it's worth discussing their (well-known) strength since the Beavers don't have the roster to counter it. Wisconsin graduated three all-conference players to the NFL (all slated to start for their respective teams) and replaced them with three slow hogs who maul and will one day make the NFL. Wisconsin is a lineman factory. What else is there to say about that?

The Beavs will have to use speed to combat (athletic) size, which rarely works, as the Ducks are finding out. To exploit their ariel advantage, they'll need a QB who can get the ball down field. In steps Sean Mannion. Or does he? Three days before kickoff we still don't know who the starting QB will be. Mannion looks to have the confidence and poise to pull out a miracle, but the sample is small and the atmosphere large. Does he blossom or become a shrinking violet in the autumn air? You'd think the latter…

Despite the mismatch on paper and all signs pointing to a blowout, I am excited about this game. Riley seemed re-focused and pumped up this week, saying coaches were accountable and they'd make the necessary adjustments. If they can do that, and the offense/special teams can use their speed to have a big day, I think the Beavers can put pressure on Wisconsin, and if that happens, who knows. The Beavers also know, psychologically, that somewhere along the line they have to make up for last week's "sure win"…what better time to do that than in a game everyone expects to be a sure loss?

QB Situation

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It's being reported (rumored?) that Mannion will be the starter.

I think Riley is handling this QB situation poorly. The players and coaches have a game to prepare for, now they have to deal with distractions and media/questions.

It reeks of desperation.

It also was a waste of time and/or poor talent evaluation during fall camp. If Mannion was the best QB, he should have been practicing with the 1s for the past month.

If true, this is somewhat shocking.

I agree Mannion looked better on Saturday, but people thought Sean Canfield looked better than Matt Moore at one point, too. Then as Canfield played more he showed weaknesses. There is a huge difference between relieving for an ineffective QB and starting the game with the expectation you have to win it (or at least manage it). Mentally, Mannion is in a totally different situation this week, and on the road rather than at home. Unless the kid is a prodigy, this is going to be rough.

The smart play is to start Katz and have him on a short leash, just like last week. It avoids the media circus and would also take pressure off Mannion if or when he is needed.