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Baseball: Washington State @ Oregon State

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Due to Easter holiday, the baseball team will be playing games Thursday through Saturday.

Below are my projected starters for the weekend, though they could change.

Date Opponent Pitchers Time (PT)
04/21 Washington State Scott Schultz (2-0, 3.21) vs Adam Conley (4-4, 3.05) 5:30 p.m.
04/22 Washington State Sam Gaviglio (6-1, 1.34) vs Chad Arnold (0-3, 7.65) 5:35 p.m.
04/23 Washington State Josh Osich (5-0, 3.38)  James Wise (3-4, 4.91) 2:05 p.m.

As you can tell from the numbers, Washington State's pitching is very weak.

The two most interesting stories in this series are Josh Osich and a possible team let down. Can Osich maintain his stride? The Stanford game was promising. Will the Beavers be bored? I don't sense complacency from this bunch. However, what they must avoid is emotional disinterest now that the "most difficult" part of the season is over. In the Pac-10, every weekend is difficult. Fans don't seem to realize this, assuming the Beavers will easily sweep the series. Hopefully the baseball team has more humility, and a healthy respect for all opponents. I think they do, and I think this will be a good weekend. Then again, I sold my Apple stock yesterday at $342…
 

The Cost of a Missed Prospect Evaluation

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At Oregon State University, the annual cost for an out-of-state student is now $35,169.

For interested persons, the following is a categorical breakdown, directly from the OSU admissions department, of 2011-2012 tuition and fees:

2011-2012 Additional Expenses (Estimates Only)

Undergraduate Tuition and Fees

Resident                                  $7,518

Non-Resident                         $21,294

Books and Supplies $1,854

Room and Board $9,444

Miscellaneous and Personal $2,577

Loan Fee Allowance $48

Estimated Undergraduate Totals 

Resident: $21,393           Non-resident: $35,169

A cursory glance at the football roster shows approximately 20 student-athletes from Oregon. That leaves 65 scholarship players from other states. Therefore, the cost for out of state recruits is approximately $2,285,985 ($35,169 x 65), while the cost of in-state players is $427,860.

Am I suggesting the staff only recruit Oregon players? Certainly not. While good values, the pool is thin.

What I'd like to point out is the cost of a missed recruit.

Let's examine Rory Ross, who quit the football team last week. Before doing so, let me iterate that 2011 dollars and tuition are not exactly equal to 2007 dollars, but 2007 tuition data is unavailable. For the purpose of this article the figures should be sufficient to make the point.

Ross was signed in 2007 and grey-shirted. He was a lanky–one might say "gangly"–227lbs, and OSU projected him as an offensive lineman. He had no other D1 offers, and Rivals ranked him a 2-star prospect. At the time, he was a clear miss in my opinion. Ross never played a down for OSU, yet was on scholarship for 3 years, costing OSU approximately $105,507. Keep in mind that the figure does not include plane fares, rental cars, hotels, phone calls, and other expenses involved in recruiting a player.

If you look at the 2007 class, it is littered with misses. David Ross, Michael Cole, and Kevin Pankey, to name a few. Also approximately 50% of the players from that class either never qualified, never contributed, or are no longer on the roster. That is a tremendous financial loss.

Something else that should be considered is the opportunity cost, or, the "next best option" to the signed player. By this, I mean instead of signing someone like Keith Pankey, the staff could have signed an equally rated 3-star recruit who was actually a 3-star talent. A perfect example is someone like Spencer Paysinger of Oregon. He was actually a 2-star recruit in 2006. Or Casey Mathews, a legit 3-star. These two guys were clear football players who led Oregon's defense to BCS games. They were not projects or hidden gems who needed two years (i.e. ~$70,000) of coaching before playing in meaningful games. Keep that in mind. Even if a player is productive by his senior year, the school has still invested 3 years @ $35,000 to get to that point. If you want to claim that OSU goes after such players, but they simply don't want to come to OSU, I'll bring up Kellen Moore, who was dying for an OSU offer, ready to sign, and yet the offer never came. Would OSU have gone to BCS games with Moore behind center? That will never be known. What we know is Moore went to a BSC game with BSU, and that Lyle Moevao was OSU's opportunity cost, or next best option.

Mike Riley says, "the stars of a guy coming in don't matter, it's how many stars they have going out."

This is simply not true, and the reason is obvious: a recruit who is ready to play right away represents a much lower cost, opportunity cost, and return on investment. Every year of beefing up, coaching up, etc costs $35,000.

Our AD cries poverty, yet our head coach outwardly admits he enjoys recruiting projects, or as he calls them, "good stories." There is a disconnect there, fellows, and I want you to see and understand it.

I know a counter argument will be that every school has misses. Granted, they do, and nobody can be right 100% of the time, but being wrong 50% of the time is unacceptable given our University's finances. Also, I am not interested in other schools, nor are you. We are not blessed with their financial resources; the value of an OSU dollar is more than an Oregon, USC, Stanford, or Washington dollar.

The bottom line is that the AD and head coach need to first understand how much money their mistakes cost the university, and then come up with a  way to fix the problem. Instead of investing 4 years @ $35,000 in a recruit who might play by his red-shirt senior season, invest that money in technology and staff so they can target recruits who will contribute by their first or second year. When I plead with the administration to model themselves after savvy teams like the Minnesota Twins, this is the kind of efficiency about which I am talking.

Baseball: Oregon State @ Stanford

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Below are the scheduled starters for the weekend.

Date Opponent Pitchers Time (PT)
04/15 Stanford Sam Gaviglio (6-1. 1.34) vs Mark Appel (2-3, 3.09) 5:30 p.m.
04/16 Stanford Josh Osich (4-0. 3.71) vs Jordan Pries (4-2, 2.63) 1:00 p.m.
04/17 Stanford Scott Schultz vs Dean McArdle (4-1, 3.29) 1:00 p.m.

Josh Osich and Ben Wetzler are not getting it done. They have combined for three quality starts between them, and only one in Pac-10 play. In four conference starts, they have a combined 5.70 ERA.

There are two valid counterarguments:

1. The in-conference sample size is small (Wetzler @ 6innings, Osich @ 11).

2. Osich was on a pitch count early in the season, so his quality starts are down because of that.

I concede both as true. However, even in the early OOC games where their stats were impressive, both pitchers struggled with control. So, I am going strictly with the eyeball test when I say Pat Casey needs to begin rethinking the starting rotation. What are the possible solutions? Well, let's give it this weekend before definitively saying there's a problem. But, if both pitch poorly again, guys like Schultz and Nygren should be in the discussion. As bad as Nygren is, he at least throws strikes (only 6 walks in 37 innings)–they problem is his strikes are hittable (.261 overall/.333 in conference).

My feeling is that to win a conference title you need a great Friday and Saturday starter. An easy solution is to start Boyd on Saturdays. He has a 1.17 ERA and opponents are hitting only .195 against him. His numbers in Pac-10 play aren't as good, but the sample is so small (3 innings), and he dominated the conference last season. Boyd was originally slated to be a starter this year, and is 2-0 in his career when starting having gone 6+ in both starts, so he can pitch extended innings. 

The downside, of course, is finding a new closer. Tony Bryant has been impressive. Perhaps Schultz could step in and act as the 7th and 8th inning bridge. The reality is that OSU needs more pitchers to step up. Where is Adam Duke? Booser has been missing since he was declared healthy.

A "professional" baseball writer, such as Aaron Fitt from Baseball America, has this concern about OSU:

The larger question about Oregon State is how well it will weather the loss of its best hitter, All-America catcher Andrew Susac, who had surgery to repair a broken hamate bone. Parker Berberet is a capable fill-in behind the plate, but he certainly will not be able to replace Susac's offense. Of course, Oregon State won three games this weekend even though Berberet went 1-for-11. Oregon State's team offense is just much better than it was a year ago, and its pitching remains very solid.

To me this comes off as lazy journalism and a cursory analysis. Susac's injury listed as OSU's main problem, and their pitching is "very solid"? Sure, the numbers are respectable, but those of us who actually watch the games know better.

As far as Stanford this weekend–I am done with predictions until I get a feel for the guys in conference play. What I'll obviously be watching most closely are the Saturday and Sunday starters. I wouldn't be surprised to see Wetzler get scratched for Nygren, and Osich moved to Sunday.

The Lone Positive from Football Practice

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Last August, after the second scrimmage, I wrote this:

This is the problem: you need the defense to be dominant this time of year. Not good, not adequate, but dominant.

Why?

Because the defense knows the offense's playbook. It's that simple. They practice against these guys daily and know the plays, yet they still can't stop them. The defense has an advantage; they should be stifling.

We know how that season turned out.

In hindsight, it is fairly fascinating to go back and read the comments. Peter Osborne from Beaverblitz visited and threw a tantrum, trying to justify the defense's 700+ yards, yet he never came back to admit he was wrong. Shocker. You can read the entire thread here if interested.

Anyway, I stand by the opinion that as a fan, what you want to see is a dominant defense in scrimmages (for the reasons mentioned above). In that sense, the first scrimmage this year was more promising than any last year.

But, moving beyond results, there is a huge (philosophical) paradigm shift that stands out this year: Riley is allowing, even encouraging, intensity and hitting during scrimmage.

This was not true in seasons past.

The reason for the change becomes transparent once you take a moment to think about it: the Beavers don't have a Stephen Paea or Jacquizz Rodgers on the roster. I don't want to insinuate that those guys were prima donas, but they were definitely coddled by a coach paranoid of losing his best players. Riley did not give his star players enough high intensity reps in practice to be successful once the season started.

I believe this is the prime reason for slow starts. It is unreasonable to believe a team should come out of the gate hitting on all cylinders when they never practiced in that manner. Remember how Stephen Paea and Jacquizz Rodgers were MIA @ TCU? If the same thing happens every year, coincidence becomes an invalid excuse.

This year, since there aren't any clear superstars, Riley is cutting it lose. I'm sure the media will spin this as Mike's personal growth or some other puke-worthy, feel-good crap, but realize the reason you're seeing violence is because the team lacks superstars. Every starter can be replaced with a player of equal talent. The following quote from Riley, taken from The Oregonian, backs up my observation:

The other was by WR Kevin Cummings, who had the ball jarred loose from a big hit by LB Cameron Collins.

“This team has been flying around,” Riley said. “We needed to do this to cut loose. I was just worried about that one hit on Kevin. Those are legal hard hits. That is what we want to be.”

Does Riley really care if he loses Collins? No coach wants to lose guys, but I doubt he'll lose any sleep so long as he has Welch, Akuna, and Te'o on the roster. What about Cummings? Nope, again, there are players behind him who are better. What about Jovan Stevenson? Not a chance. Riley knows the three backups are equally average.

So, you see, by lacking unanimous, all-conference, NFL prospects, the Beavers might actually have a better team come opening day. At the very least, they will be a more prepared team that has hit and been hit.

Baseball: Beavs Shoot for Sweep

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Ben Wetzler will try to complete a series sweep at 1pm today. It would be the first time the Sun Devils have been swept by a conference opponent since 1999. History favors the Sun Devils, though math (i.e. the law of averages) favors the Beavers.

My pre-game question for you: How much faith do you have in Wetzler this afternoon?

Moving on…

In Pac-10 news, Oregon lost again. People are making a big deal of this. While the Ducks are clearly sliding, I still think they'll be a feisty out the second half of the season. Stanford, meanwhile, lost in a late game. In the comment area of Friday's baseball post, I questioned why Stanford is considered a top 10 team. I didn't receive a good answer, and a few hours later the trees were felled by Trojans. Looks like I got my answer after all.

Around the country…

Several teams in the 10-20 range have had middling weekends, so the Beavs could make a push in the polls with a sweep today; figure somewhere around 12 if they complete the job. Even without a sweep I expect a 5 slot jump.

Then again…

From what I can gather, there's not much buzz about this series outside of Corvallis. Baseball America's resident tweeter (Aaron Fitt) didn't peep after the Beavs made their miraculous comeback. Checking their blog this morning, I saw this.

The SEC and ACC are both mentioned ahead of the PAC-10, despite the PAC having 6 teams in the Top-25. The conference needs to get games on TV early and East. "Early and East"–that should be the motto; it's catchy. Anyway, when Fitt finally got around to writing about Oregon State, it was not with the gushing love he showed for the SEC ("In perhaps the most compelling game of the weekend, Arkansas beat No. 17 Louisiana State, 4-3, to clinch a series against the Tigers for the first time since 2004"). Really? A 4-3 win over by unranked Arkansas over the #17 team was a bigger deal than #19 coming back from 5 runs down to beat #5??

I'll probably stop reading Baseball America, or at least I'll stop taking them seriously now. Aaron Fitt, I hope you see the incoming link from angrybeavs and check it, because I'd like you to read firsthand you're a moron.

Alright, time for a rage reducing bowl of oatmeal. See you guys in a few hours.