If you flip a coin 3 times with the results being 1 heads and 2 tails, you'd probably expect the 4th flip would be heads, correct? However, since the 4th flip is independent of prior events, the probability is, like all other coin flips, 50/50.

"Angry, why bring up esoteric crap like math? This is football!"

Good question.

Basically, to point out a fact that we fans sometimes forget: football games are independent events.

It would be easy to reason that since Arizona State has put up 500 yards a game in hanging with the big boys, and Oregon State has looked abysmal even in victory against a rebuilding little guy, that the Sun Devils will win the game. 

Well, for me this game comes down to psychology (what else is new?). On one hand we have the Beavers, who are absolutely desperate for a win. On the other, Arizona State, who are feeling like world beaters after playing well enough to beat two top 25 teams.

Here's an analogy: the Beavers are the bum who hasn't eaten (or had a "drink") in two weeks and sees you strolling down the street, whistling Dixie, and carrying a sack of leftovers from the Peacock. Arizona State, in this analogy, would be "you". Fat…satiated…not exactly looking for a meal. Who do you think wins a battle over them scraps?

The home crowd will be booing the Beavers' every failure, which should stoke the fire.

So I'm picking the Beavers, right?

Meh.

I guess?

I saw ASU, and their mobile QB, stalemate Wisconsin and have their way with Oregon (until the 7 turnovers were too much to overcome). Could the Beavs compete with either of those teams? No, I don't believe so, but football unlike mathematics is not transitive. Independent events, my friends, just like the coins.

Sure, ASU is bigger, stronger, and faster. The eyeball test tells me the game's ledger will read "L", but until the "psychological edge" argument fails me, I'm sticking with it. Now chant with me, Beavlettes: PSYCHOLOGICAL EDGE AND INDEPENDENT EVENTS, PSYCHOLOGICAL EDGE AND INDEPENDENT EVENTS! You can probably sense how much confidence I have in this one.

Beavs by the skin of their teeth.

27-24

It's easy to sit back in one's chair and scream, "Hardin should be able to cover Austin Pettis!" We base these beliefs off watching other games. We see the ease with which Oregon, Alabama, and even lesser teams like Arizona State play defense. But the fact remains, Hardin couldn't cover Pettis, nor could he tackle the Kellen Moore on a CB blitz, nor could he cover anyone against TCU. Okay, so that is the problem. What is the solution?

The same is true with the staff. We all see that Banker can't scheme for running QBs. Problem: obvious. What is the solution? How do we get rid of Mark Banker and get someone better? Or, how do we as fans make Mark Banker see the light? The guy is such a stubborn dinosaur that he'll play 11 Brandon Hardins before listening to fans' ideas. And let's once and for all debunk the notion that the Beavers shouldn't fire Banker because the successor could be worse. Talk about illogical and conveniently negative thinking–should a battered woman stay with her husband because the guy she dates next might hit her harder? Come on already.

And what about this recruiting problem? Recruiting is the heart of any program, so as a fan is it fair or even accurate to sit back and say, "4 star talent doesn't want to come to Corvallis" and remove all blame from the head coach? Is a fan (and media, who are huge culprits in this) who falls in love with the walk-on-success story doing their team justice? The problem here is obvious, but what is the solution?

What about the attitude of the team? Boise State and Oregon State get the same player, yet they don't get near the same results. That attitude trickles down from the head coach. Look at the numbers below. I compiled the ever-controversial "star" argument for OSU and Boise State's starters. 

Offense:

Defense:

That's a 2.14 to 2.09 overall roster average. What does this data say to you? To me it says we have the same talent as Boise State, and shouldn't get absolutely man-handled. It says the problem is attitude, will, and all the intangibles that come from mental fortitude. Riley understands these things exist as he talks about them, but he doesn't know how to implement the mindset. That is the problem. But what is the solution? How do I as a Beaver fan get a sports psychologist hired on this staff? Preferably one who can recruit. I jest.

As fans all we can do is truthfully write about and discuss the problems and try to put pressure and criticism where it is due. But fans cannot even agree to do that.  While this blog is active, it's overall sentiment is a voice in the wilderness compared to mainstream Beaver fans' thought. The average fan is content with a fifth tier bowl game, moral victories, and heart-warming walk-on success stories. And that brings up my final question: why are the majority of fans content with mediocrity, determined to see the light in disappointing situations, and willing to glorify sub par effort, talent, etc? Probably because they have self-worth tied to the product coupled with being unable to get over some losing streak from 15 years ago. That's the problem, but how do we change that mindset when human nature tells us that pointing out flaws only makes people more resistant to change.

These are trying times. The Beavers failed in the spotlight yet again, and I'm left reading the same old optimist sentiment stating that this is the norm and things will change. When?

Use this post for your in-game comments, frustrations, etc.

Five key questions I'll be looking at early on:

1. Can the Beavs get off the field on 3rd downs? This will be critical given their depth issues. If they can't, the Broncos will be even more effective running as the game goes on.

2. Conversely, are the Beavers converting their own 3rd downs?

3. Does Quizz have any lanes?

4. Are the coaches calling aggressive plays that results in touchdowns instead of settling for field goals?

5. Can the Beavs survive Boise's initial punch? When momentum is against them, can they find the will to counter strike?

These are the things that win games, so watch for them early on. Sit back and enjoy, boys…I'm off to load up on some gin.

Unlike Louisville, I've actually seen Boise State play, so my opinion on this game should be more educated. What follows are observations from games I've seen.

a. Boise State plays their offensive game in a 12 x 53 (width) yard box. That is, the quarterback will rarely throw the ball deeper than 12 yards. Their pass plays rely on yards after the catch, throws to the first-down markers but not beyond, etc. Slants, hitches, and improvised pass routes make for a lot of their yards. When they work the field horizontally, it's usually short passes in the flat or screens, not deep outs, etc. Precision is their best weapon.

The Beavers should encourage Moore the beat them with the deep pass by stacking the box.  It's Moore's lone weakness, so if he beats them in that manner, tip your cap.

b. Peterson likes to loosen the defense by pounding Doug Martin. Then, when the opponent has had enough contact, he hits them with the faster backs. Sometimes they do it the other way around, but either way, Martin is the key to the running game, as he is the player who seems to convert key downs and break the opponent's will.

Two things are needed in order to slow down Doug Martin.

(1) Physical mass

(2) Gang tackling

The benefit of playing man coverage with corners is it frees up a safety. The Beavers should use this safety to roam freely and swarm to the ball–gang tackling. The Beavers also need mass (i.e. Castro and his 320lbs at DT rather than Olander). They should have separate defensive packages for when Martin is in the game versus Avery. When Avery is in there, put speed on the field.

c. Boise State encourages cut backs lanes, broken plays, etc.

They'll purposely load one side of the formation, only to have Avery cut back to the weak side and rip off a big run. When they play straight up, they're much less effective. It's almost a variant of the spread in that they're getting their fastest player in space with a one on one assignment.

It's vital that Miller and Henry maintain inside contain. They can't blow past Moore and let him out on the edge where he can buy time and improvise. That's how Boise hit their big plays with the wideouts. In the run game, have the 8th man in the box cheat toward the cut back lane, and hope Wilson and Roberson are good enough to defend the strong side. The defense needs to think in terms of making the 12 x 53 box in which Boise plays even smaller. If you give these guys an inch, they'll take a yard.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Broncos like to mix things up depending on down and distance. They'll use everything from six defensive backs to the standard 4-3. I'm nervous about Ryan Katz in this game. Does he continue to show poise and avoid mistakes? If ever there's an opponent that can scheme a young QB into a dreadful game it's this one. That being said, the one advantage the Beavers have is in the skill that cannot be taught: speed. James Rodgers and Markus Wheaton can do severe damage in this game, as they are faster than any Bronco. I don't see Quiz finding running room–figure on 65 yards, max. That's a shame, too, since it would behoove the Beavs to control the clock and keep the defense off the field. However, OSU's offensive line has been man-handled when run blocking, and Boise State takes tremendous pride in stopping the run. It's a bad formula.

Prediction: This is going to sound strange, and perhaps flat out contrarian, but I don't see a blowout. Let me outline some reasons why.

• By painting the practice field blue, the Beavers' athletic department has shown how seriously they're taking this game. Additionally, in Riley's press conferences he has astutely noted and articulated Boise's strengths, suggesting to me that he's cognizant of the opponent's tendencies, and therefore at the least will be able to slow them.
• The entire state of Oregon will be rooting for the Beavers. I don't think you can underestimate the fact that Beavers and Ducks are on the same page for this one. You'll likely even see Duck fans at this game cheering the Beavs. In solidarity there is strength.
• The entire nation, for the most part, will be rooting for the Beavers. Outside of Idaho, I'd wager 90% of the nation has disrespect for the Bronco's schedule. I can't imagine anyone believes they deserve a shot in the title game, and a loss on Saturday will ensure they lose that opportunity.
• The Beavers usually come alive week 3 or 4, and last week when I expected the defense to be worn out from being on the field all game, they stepped up and sealed the victory. Am I ready to declare they're good? No, but I have to believe the stand last week will boost confidence on Saturday. A key point is how Tony Wilson came on late in that game. Has the light turned on for this young linebacker? It was flickering.
• Boise State is a short pass, power run team. No matchup is great for the Beavers' defense right now, but is one the better options.

Those are the reasons I think the game will be relatively close. Do I think the Beavers win? Well, let me put it this way: it would surprise me, but it wouldn't shock me. Since I believe in writing the truth, it's time to admit the aura, preparation, and mindset of the team feels better this week. But, at the end of the day, Kellen Moore will be too efficient, Doug Martin too strong, Jeremy Avery and Austin Pettis too hungry, and the Bronco defense too stout. Boise wins, but not in blowout fashion.

35-24, Broncos

During the off-season, I mentioned how I loved the TCU and Boise State games because they'll both have a BCS feel to them. Since the Beavers haven't been able to play their way into such games, I thought it was a great way to give a deserving fanbase that type of excitement.

However, the loss, or gamble, is obviously in weakening national perception. Everyone is going to be watching this game, which brings up some good questions and points of discussion:

1. Does national perception matter at all to a team from Corvallis with no realistic shot at a BCS game? Before you say "Rose Bowl", realize it's been 45 years, so the "realistic shot" comment is not off the mark.

2. How much does a blowout loss hurt recruiting?

3. If the Beavers are blown out, what will it do to national perception (i.e. what will voters and pundits say)?

4. Conversely, if they win, will recruiting and national perception get any bump at all? The answer to that question may determine if the risk is worth taking in the first place.

Personally, I love it, and I do not think they're going to get blown out of this game. Tomorrow, I'll break down the game and explain why I believe that, but for now let's hear what you guys think about this opportunity. Do you like your team being in the spotlight? Do you think this game is going to hurt the program long term? Do you believe they win and it creates a boon? Etc. There's a lot to discuss. We're likely on the precipice of a program defining moment.