"There will be those who accept it with joy because they knew it was true all along, and there will be those for whom it will bring pain, for it exposes the inadequacy of their world view."  –Leon Festinger

The media put in our collective minds the notion that all the Beavers had to do was show up, and Louisville would bow to our superior talent, resulting in a three touchdown victory for simply taking the field. What that idea was founded on, it's hard to fathom, since Louisville actually had better athletes than the Beavers. It seems that the media was lazy in analyzing this game; nobody knew much about Louisville, and nobody cared enough to investigate. Vegas said the Beavers win big, so that's what went to print.

Fans were told to expect a drubbing; instead, they were given a one score victory. The aftermath of the dupe is interesting. Fans, being irrational, were more disappointed after the win versus Louisville than after the loss to TCU. All this does is showcase the absurd, and somewhat schizophrenic, nature of emotion, or "fandom."

Let me inject "Beaver Nation" (hackneyed phrase alert) with a dose of reality:

1. We all expected the Beavers to be 1-2 after their first three games.

2. We expected that win to come against Louisville.

3. The defense is not good. It has been in decline for three years, and performed badly during fall camp.

So why is today's outcome a surprise? If you've observed the team objectively–that is, without emotion–since camp began, then today's outcome should be exactly what one would expect. It's hard to understand fans who are (figuratively) jumping off cliffs today; those who are, only after this game, willing to admit "hey there may be problems with the defense"; and, those who truly expected a convincing victory.

I'd like to propose this paradigm to the fanbase: curb your emotion.

The optimistic, emotional fan, while believing he is good, helpful, loyal, and doing his duty, is in reality a cancer to the program. To approve of a flaw or hindrance [toward a goal] is a disservice to yourself, fellow fans, the recipient of the accolade.

Next week the Beavers head to Boise State. The team, taking their cue from the head man, will show up even-keel, and hence will be down three scores shortly after stepping off the bus. It gives me great displeasure to document such probabilities.

This season has great importance. Not because of Rose Bowl aspirations, but because of the underlying agita and mounting frustration within the fanbase. What you're seeing after the Louisville win, is that even the optimistic, disillusioned fan is asking that the bar be raised. 2010 could go down in Beaver history as the season of mutiny, where the most loyal finally turn on their beloved coaching staff and demand excellence rather than hope for it. The fact that we today witnessed disappointment after a victory is a sign that these forces are indeed in motion.

I'm not going to pretend to know a lot about the Louisville Cardinals since I haven't watched them play since 2005, but these are my points of concern:

1. They have a senior QB, which is always dangerous.

2. Mike Sanford is their offensive coordinator. As some might know, he was head coach at UNLV last season when they almost pulled the upset. It also means they probably incorporate some spread/option components.

3. They rushed for 200 yards on an SEC defense. Granted, Kentucky, but an SEC defense nonetheless.

4. 8 sacks. Inferior opponents, but still, 8 sacks. It's not as if the Beavers had those kind of numbers after playing Portland State last year, so there is something to it.

5. A lot of recruits on that roster are from Florida and SEC country. In other words, at the very least, they look the part.

6. They're coming off a victory. Confidence will be high.

That's what Louisville have going for them. Fortunately, however, there's a lot more bad news, including the 500 yards of offense they yielded to Kentucky.

There's no need to expound on this game. The Cardinal play into the Beavers hands on both offense and defense. Quiz will gain a buck fifty, Katz will notch his first win en route to throwing for 230, the defense will look better, and the Beavs will put up points. The last I saw the spread was +/- 19.5, which is too high. Bring on Boise.

31-17, Beavers.

"I think this front seven can be very good, but we're going to have to tighten some things down."

-Mike Riley

Riley told us there will be no changes in the starting lineup, either on offense or defense. -Oregonian

Delaying the inevitable is never a good thing. Whether it's breaking up with a lady, paying your bills, believing you can "hold it in", or, in the case of football–putting the correct personnel on the field.

Last season, during game two against UNLV, many arm-chair coaches saw that #28 was being beaten for some big plays and rightly called for his head…er…helmet. Nonetheless, Riley stuck with him. The following week, #28 was toasted harder than a narcoleptic camper's marshmallow stick–two more touchdowns as Cincinnati rolled by 10. Dare I mention it took even longer for the staff to replace Frahm with LaGrone.

That was all very unfortunate, but it's in the past and therefore it would be fine, so long as Mike Riley learned from it. The problem is, he hasn't. He has convinced himself this current front seven, and specifically the linebackers, can be good.

Let's concede that he's right. That the front seven can be good. The best case scenario in that situation still has the Beavers being blitzkrieged by Oregon. Simply put, the linebackers who played versus TCU–even if they are playing at 101% of their potential– cannot and will not beat the Ducks. What Riley is essentially saying is, "We have a bunch of either (a) slow teams or (b) pro offenses coming up on the schedule, and they are going to make our defense look pretty good."

Get ready for the smoke and mirror show. Sure, Louisville and Arizona State will make the defense look stout. But spread and/or speed teams are going to stretch and gut the Beavers unless they make changes now. Given the current lineup, you can chalk these games up as loses: Arizona, California, USC, and Oregon. Boise State will out coach the Beavers, play with more urgency and intensity, and execute. That's six loses, Beavlettes, and that's assuming the winnable games go to the good guys.

This coaching staff needs to tailor their schemes to the personnel they have, rather than the personnel they wish they had. What they have on the roster is a damn good 4-2-5:

CB: Dockery and Poyer

LB: Roberson, Doctor

DL: Miller, Paea, Olander, Henry

S: Collins, Mitchell

Rover/nickle: Hardin (Collins/Hardin can be interchanged, but this lineup would require a smaller learning curve).

or, a good 4-3-4:

CB: Dockery and Poyer

MLB: Roberson

OLB: Doctor, Collins

DL: Miller, Paea, Olander, Henry

S: Hardin, and Mitchell

That's team speed and tackling I can get behind and feel confident in. Put those guys on the field, let them take their lumps now during the OOC, and have a great team once Pac-10 play begins.

A man can dream, right?

The harsh reality: The Beavers took 3+ days off last week and did…nothing…instead of working on a scheme like this. The head coach comes out today and says there will be no changes…anywhere.

Therefore, much like last year, adjustments won't happen until week 3 or beyond. And therein lies the problem in beating Louisville–it's going to delay the inevitable. The Beavers will win by 10 to 13 points. On defense they will look "pretty good" due to Louisville's ineptitude, and the same front seven will take the field versus Boise State. That's not what we want, folks. Trust me.

Many times in the history of human thought a belief once heretical has become a universally accepted truth…the history of science is partly the history of paradoxes becoming commonplace and heresies becoming orthodoxies

–Encyclopedia Britannica, 1959 edition, on "Heresy"

We've had a week to digest the fact that the Beavers are not a National Championship caliber team. How's that going down for you guys? Over here it's fine.

As time passes and reflection sets in, I start to see reasons for optimism. For starters, the coaches (specifically Banker) are saying the right things. "Need more speed on the edge", "middle linebacker is a weak link", etc. Last year, it took Banker three games to admit #28 shouldn't be on the field. Banker seems more open to scheming for opponents as well. What a wild and crazy guy. What's next? He tells cornerbacks to turn their head and make a play?

The only bad news I've heard so far is that the coaches have given the players three days off. To me, this should be interpreted as rewarding the players a loss. I know it's not, but that's the message a player will (subconsciously) receive. At the very least, it's mismanagement of time and a lost opportunity to improve execution through repetition. If I were the coach, and I saw how much work lay ahead, I'd reschedule that recruiting trip. Three days off when Cameron Collins needs to be worked in at a new position in order to salvage the defense/season? Yeah, with that I have an issue.

What should be done:

1. Move Collins to linebacker permanently, this year, now, today, this minute.

2. Have a nickle package where Poyer plays CB, #28 and Mitchell play safety, Hardin moves to rover, and Collins/Doctor are both on the field.

Such a package would afford the team speed, pass coverage, and run support necessary to defend spread offenses. Against standard pro offenses in the Pac-10, a lineup of Roberson (MLB), Doctor, and Pankey would be an upgrade. If Pankey could be replaced with Unga, things would be looking even better.

Without shifting the defense as described, I don't see any possibility of the Beavers shocking the world later this month. In fact, it's hard to be confident about the Louisville game with the status quo. Hopefully we see creativity and change once the coaches return from their…vacations.