Home Football USC Game Week

USC Game Week

By
angry
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433

Might as well put up a game week thread. I thought this was the most insightful comment from the prior thread and sums up the situation well:

USC hasn’t been in pressure situations yet, nor have they been punched in the mouth by any team yet. They are going to be similar to Carroll’s teams but more like a travel all star team. I think Williams is good to great but does get careless/greedy at times. In pressure situations he will call his own number and run . Plan for it.

All of the offensive stars will get frustrated in a tight game when they can’t be flashy and prance around.

They have had 3-4 pick 6 and I expect the Beavs offense doesn’t make the same bad turnovers.

USC is attempting to create an image of overwhelming talent and track meet offense as a form of program/conference propaganda when they may be an average defense with above average offense.

My concern would be:
USC gets benefit of the doubt on ref judgment calls because they are perceived as the flagship again.

League office desires an undefeated USC go to the playoffs.

Beavs get caught up in the smoke and mirrors imagery of the Mighty Trojans 2.0

USC has added 40 4/5 star free agents and will simply be more talented but I don’t believe that means they can’t be beaten.

I want to see how USC deals with adversity rather than being front runners.

Well said, OhioBeav.

For now I’m sticking with my pre-season prediction that the Beavs win this one. Mainly because the game is at home. This is a low conviction pick. It’s objectively hard to imagine how the Beavs will stop that QB. But as noted above, he gets greedy and careless at times, so hopefully he stops himself. Going to think about it during the week and might adjust on game day.

Beavs 31, Condoms 28

433 COMMENTS

  2. 4

    and of the excerpts Angry picked out the most salient to me is USC getting ref judgment calls to go their way because they are perceived to be the flagship again. They have always been perceived as the flagship even when they had a lousy team, and now, combined with their imminent departure, it’s more true than ever. The fans are going to have to bring their A game, to quote a former OSU president.

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    • 3
      2

      Totally agree. Knowing the refs will be in on a fix makes this game impossible to pick. Everyone should get ready to be all over Twitter pointing out the awful calls. I wonder if Smith points out to players that this is going to happen. Probably not because it’s demoralizing.

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    • 5
      1

      I made the comment on the other thread that ND was the beneficiary of a phantom “offsides” call against Cal that didn’t happen. It was a pivotal call as it was on 3rd down in the red zone and resulted in a 1st down and ND went on to score the next play. Cal had a great chance to win this game, but this just shows how desperate the NCAA is to have the ‘storied’ programs like ND and USC to remain relevant – most likely for revenue purposes.

      The other take away from last nights USC-Fresno State game was that it looks like Lincoln Riley has his band of mercenaries playing like the USC of old – especially when it comes to late hits, etc. Nothing pisses me off more than the late hit and USC is notorious for them; they would rather take the penalty just so they injure a key player and prevent him from making an impact.

      There is no team I hate worse than USC…….

      Reply
  4. 8

    “My concern would be:
    USC gets benefit of the doubt on ref judgment calls because they are perceived as the flagship again.

    League office desires an undefeated USC go to the playoffs.”

    I wonder how much of an issue this is with Pac12 refs this year? Does the leaugue really want to prop USC up artificially while they’re on their way to the Big10? Seems like the opposite could be the case. Why would the Pac go out of their way to help USC return to form for another conference?

    Reply
    • 7

      That was my first thought, too, but then I figured they’ll bring in a better payday this year than anyone else. The fact we even have to think about this stuff shows how bad the situation is, though.

      Reply
      • 1

        Wouldn’t the conference get a big pay day if ANY Pac team made it to the final four?

        I’m guessing after OSU, the biggest threat to USC is @ Utah. After OSU, USC has a wreck of an ASU team at home, so no need to look ahead…then WSU at home then @ Utah.

        For OSU, the biggest challenges are likely @ Utah, v. WSU, @ UW, and v. UO.

        USC is definitely the glam team in the PAC right now though so I can see them getting preference in officiating. High ranking, lots of attention, transfers, leaving PAC soon…

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        • 1

          By some metrics, UW is a better team than $C so far; if Penix can remain upright this season he could give the Trojans a run for their money… But I guess that’s the rub, they would only meet in the conference championship, however wouldn’t UW get massaged by the refs then, so why jerk the Trojans opponents now?

          Reply
  6. 4

    Significant variance in potential outcomes with this game. The only certainty is that USC will move the ball and put up points when they have it, so the main questions are:

    1. Can the Beavs be efficient and control the clock with their offense?
    2. Can the defense force a big turnover, or will USC make a mistake?

    Based on what we saw from the USC defense against Fresno I would say the Beavs have a pretty good chance to accomplish #1 and keep the game within striking distance. However……Any sloppiness or mistakes by the offense and the game could get out of hand quickly. #2 I’m not that confident in. I’m pretty nervous heading into this game because of the path it will set us on for the rest of the season.

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  8. 4

    Yeah the Beav defense isn’t anything special. Gonna take a +2 turnover differential to keep the game close. Most likely a loss.

    40 – 24 USC

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  9. 3

    Need to force turn overs and protect ball to have a chance. SC defense is ok not great. We’ll score points and be able to run. First to 45 wins.

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  11. 3

    10 touchdowns last night…nice ring to it.

    I didn’t see the game, but with the QB’s running success, I’d think USC QB Williams has to like that film. Perhaps rotating spies like Fisher AND Julian(?) on him would be effective? Julian seems to makes good decisions and good open field tackles.

    The buildup to this game has gone well with challenging non-con games and a tune up for the offense last night. About the only that could be better is having Musgrave and Julian at 100%, not sure who else is out? Lowe?

    I know the Beavers won’t be afraid. They’ll need to show the same resilience they showed in LA last year. Also, I think Smith’s discipline in 4th down calls is going to be important. Those low probability calls could be real back breakers with SC’s offense.

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  13. 7

    I hope SC leaves their meth’d up towel waving grad assistants at home next week. Refs should have called some kind of penalty on those idiots… I don’t think you can run down the sideline waving your towel in the air past a certain point. So obnoxious!

    Reply
  14. 4

    I don’t specifically recall how I predicted this game in the pre-season poll of contributors here but since I ended up at 7-5, I’m guessing I had it as a loss. Given the ease with which SC dispatched Fresno last night, I’m moving strongly in the direction of a SC victory, maybe even a big one. This is especially the case given the powerful incentives for the conference to advance SC in the playoff discussion, as discussed above. To win the Beavs will have to get ahead early, sort of like the 06 and 08 games. And then hang on. I don’t see the prospect of a come from behind victory at all.

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  15. 9

    Beavs are playing with house money this week. Won’t be expected to win and even if they don’t, it’s not going to completely derail the season. At home with students back at night, even with half a stadium I anticipate one of the more electric crowds we’ve had in a long time. Will be important to keep the crowd in it the whole way through. The biggest thing right now: USC has forced 10 turnovers and they have not coughed it up once. To me, this is the only stat that matters in this game. Beavs will need to protect the ball and steal a possession or two to have a shot.

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    • 3

      “Won’t be expected to win”……Yeah, but to be only 6.5 pt dogs in the very early betting line?
      Figured more like 13-20 pt dogs; but Vegas will adjust to keep $ flowing.

      Turnovers? SC is “due” to have a couple, don’tcha think?
      And wannabeav is right in saying, ” I don’t see the prospect of a come from behind victory at all.”

      Reply
  17. 4
    1

    A few keys to the game being competitive/upset Beavs win:
    Turnovers
    Time of possession/running game
    Kickers & Special teams coverages
    4th down gambles at correct moments for JS
    Refs call it same both ways for DBs/WR
    Good Nolan/no drops/no ints
    Getting to Williams for pressures/sacks

    I think Beavs can move the ball and score on USC, also think OSU dbs and defense is better than USC expects. Hoping for field goals instead of touchdowns just like Fresno game.
    Addison is great, Williams is great. Neither have been to Reser or played a conference game yet though.

    I’ll call it as a win for OSU 38 – USC 34

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  18. 2

    WORTH READING:
    Our buddy Hank from Go Mighty Card recapped the Stanford loss to SC in a well written piece. While the primary focus is on the improved Tree offense, there are nuggets of value in looking forward to next Saturday. The biggest takeaway is how often Tree shot themselves in the foot on offense, also somewhat noteworthy was the improved performance of the Stanford D in the second half. (Tree and the Bulldogs each got three sacks on Williams, nots sure the Beavs can do better).

    https://www.gomightycard.com/2022/09/usc-41-stanford-28.html

    Reply
  19. 4

    Herm Edwards out at Arizona State.

    That team will have quit on their season by the time we go to Tempe. Nice little tune up game before the Civil War.

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  21. 1

    Sagarin has the Beavs at 25 and Wazzu at 40 while Wisconsin is 13 – of course.

    No Gameday. They goin to RockyTop for Florida-Tennessee for some reason. Price of gas too expensive to drive out here?

    Reply
    • 2

      Kind of tempting to go see it in person. USC will have no incentive to play the Beavers in a non-con game in the future. OSU and Utah are the teams most likely to defeat USC this year and I really don’t want USC representing the PAC in the post season before they leave the conference.

      Reply
  25. 3

    OT: Read that Denver Broncos were so inept with clock management, that their home crowd starting counting down the play clock to try and reduce penalties by the offense. Hilarious. I’ve never heard of a home crowd doing that. The Hackett/Wilson era is off to a very poor start. They barely beat the Texans at home, and are 1-1.

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  26. 1

    I’m going 41-40 USC. As much as I’d like to predict Beavs win I just don’t see it. My orange colored glasses says the Beavs keep it close but kicking game, penalties, and inability to stop running QB on 3rd down is the difference in a heart breaker.

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  27. 1

    OT: Watched CU in person get thrashed by my Gophers. 25 total yards in the 1st half, and less than 100 at the beginning of the 4th quarter.
    Bet the house on a Beav victory. Colorado is terrible and cannot stop the run. Their only hope is if our offensive staff gets too cute with past plays and just does not pound them into submission.

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  30. 2

    I’m still coming with the late late hot takes,

    Not much to take away from Saturday. Out athleted Montana St pretty well. Everyone but the kickers had fun. Oddly Colletto did not record a stat in the game at all.

    Special teams for kicking was the only concern. One for giving up the kick return TD and the missed FG and missed XPs. Really none of that should have happened. These issues are all between the ears.

    Opening USC line has the Beavs underdogs by 6. Vegas is giving a lot of respect to the Beavs. I would have guessed it at around 14-15 points. Expect that line to expand to around 9-10 with heavy money on USC.

    Last years game vs USC means nothing this year. USC is a totally different team now. New everything. The matchup has a pretty similar feeling to last year’s Utah game. And that’s where the Beavs can look for a winning blueprint. They can take a bit from the Stanford game too.

    USC starts very fast and puts opponents away early,
    Rice – Scored 3 TDs on first three offensive possessions.
    Stanford – Scored 5 TDs on first five offensive possessions
    Fresno St – Scored 3 TDs on the first three offensive possessions

    They also make teams pay for mistakes. USC returned 3 pick sixes vs Rice, and scored a TD after another INT. vs Stanford – scored 3 TDs and a FG off turnovers. vs Fresno – 1 TD off a turnover and 1 TD off a missed FG.

    Do they have a weakness? Yes, but it hasn’t hurt them yet. USC rush defense gives up a lot of yards. #103 in the nation.

    Keys the game, – pretty basic
    Get stops early
    Run the ball
    Don’t turnover the ball
    Do something special on special teams

    Can they accomplish these? Nolan will have to be very good in this game. RBs have had some ball security issues and can’t have them here. The defense will have to show something they haven’t before.

    That’s where I look to the Utah game last year. Utah went up 14-0 early and all hope seemed to disappear. Beavs run game got them back in the game. Special teams with a blocked kick changed the momentum of the game. Utah’s offense produced a lot but the Beavs got just enough stops to pull out the win.

    If this game was on the road, Beavs would have no shot. But Nolan is much better at home and the defense plays more inspired in front of a home crowd. There should be plenty of fight in the Beavs, though I am not sure it will be enough. If the new new side was complete, I’d give the Beavs a 50-50 shot.

    Reply
    • 1

      “Late late hot takes!” Good write up.

      “Do they have a weakness? Yes, but it hasn’t hurt them yet. USC rush defense gives up a lot of yards. #103 in the nation.

      Keys the game, – pretty basic
      Get stops early
      Run the ball
      Don’t turnover the ball
      Do something special on special teams

      Can they accomplish these? Nolan will have to be very good in this game. RBs have had some ball security issues and can’t have them here. The defense will have to show something they haven’t before. ”

      Regarding the run game, its implicit, but I think the OLIne needs to have its best game of the young season. They haven’t quite put it together yet like they did in their prime games last year.

      Agree on the ball security issues of the RBs. That needs to be an emphasis this week.

      Also, I think if Martinez gets in a groove, keep giving him carries and use Fenwick as the compliment. We’ll probably see a diverse run game with some more Jam this week, a reverse or two or a fly sweep, Colletto in the wildcat handing the ball off when not near the goal line, Colletto keeping at the goal line. Give Nolan the green light for a few to several runs, but slide or kneel down.

      The WRs can’t get the drops again. The Beavers can’t afford to leave a bunch of plays on the ground as they have in the first two games. Can’t be wasting opportunities like Harrison did.

      I think the Beavers D is going to give up some big plays, but I also think they’re going to make some. Perhaps a great play on the ball or two or a safety being in the right place for an INT as we saw against BSU and MSU. I won’t be surprised by two picks by the Beavers as well as multiple PI calls.

      I think Reser is going to be very loud, even at 26-27K, but agree, if the new side were in, for this game Reser might be the loudest its ever been.

      From my perspective, this game is the perfect storm of a program on the rise being built progressively through recruiting v. team built by greed. Its kind of funny that early in the transfer process, Smith and the Beavs were lauded as if they were particularly adept at taking advantage of the transfer portal. And yet here is USC, absolutely loaded with free agents, and the Beavs mainly improving through progressively better recruiting classes and player development.

      Reply
  31. 5

    9er’s name being floated around for the ASU job that just opened up. No way he leaves us, right guys?…right? God I sure as shit hope not. It’s not like ASU is a blue blood but they could pay him more. Unlikely of course that he leaves but seeing his name out there made me uncomfortable given our track record with hirings.

    Reply
  33. 2
    1

    After reading all of your comments on here, there sure is a lot of unsure thoughts about this game. I am also on the fence about this game. I’m not nervous about the outcome score wise, but I am nervous about injuries, turnovers, kicking game, and stupid penalties. I will tackle each one of these 1-by-1.

    Injuries: I’m worried USC will be purposely trying to hurt key players by rolling up on Nolan after a tackle, laying on players well after the play is over, Grabbing the legs of a WR or RB and pulling and twisting their leg up after a tackle. I saw all of these happen against FSU. Refs let this happen with no warnings or penalties. USC plays dirty similar to of old and similar to Fresno State back in the early 2000’s when we played them. We need to be prepared for them to play dirty and not get penalized for it by the refs.

    Turnovers: Nolan has been better with his throw aways, passes are more crisp and only where his guys can get the ball. The real problem is Fenwick or a WR fumbling the ball trying to get extra yards. I would much rather have a player just go down when wrapped up than try to get more yards in this game. normally I would say fight for more yards at contact, but go down when you’re wrapped up and don’t try to fight to get loose. This will lead to a hard hit by a USC player to get the OSU player down, but also to cause injury. Our DB’s are ball hawks, but USC has speed at WR. Will our DB’s be able to play man to man and be able to make a play on the ball or will they get beat just enough to where they have to make a tackle to prevent a touchdown?

    Kicking game: Glad Atticus got into a game to kick field goals, but he did miss an XP if I recall. My hope for Atticus is the first XP kick and miss was nerves and the goal posts are high school goal posts, not college goal posts, meaning they were significantly shorter than the ones at Reser or any other Collegiate stadium. The fact kickoffs don’t go into the endzone for touchbacks is either on Cookus wanting short kicks or our kickers who don’t have the leg to boot it into the back of the endzone. I see Hayes resting this game.

    Stupid Penalties: The team has been a lot better on preventing the procedural penalties of offsides, false start, holding, etc on the offensive side of the ball. The defensive side of the ball the DB’s tend to either hold, grab, interfere with a WR if they feel they’ve been beaten on the play instead of trying to just run out the play. The philosophy Bray has is rather have a 15 yard penalty from the previous spot than a for sure touchdown. So if you’re going to take a PI or defensive holding penalty, make sure the ball is not caught. It’s a strategy you only use when you’re playing a faster team with an accurate QB. the stupid penalties are the late hit personal foul penalties. I hope we do not retaliate and stoop down to the USC dirty playing level.

    As for the offensive side, we keep talking about how our run game is not as strong or not as prevalent as last year. Well, is it possible they HAD to rely on the run game so much because Nolan was so inaccurate with his throws last season? Now that his throwing ability is more accurate and more precise on his throws, it’s now up to the WR’s to catch the balls. The run game compliments our passing game rather than the run setting up the passing game. Our offense will can’t get stymied or shut down by USC if we want to have a chance at winning this game.

    As for the defense, I feel we can be a bit more aggressive this game and play similar to the second half of the Fresno State game. Defense needs to limit USC from scoring more than 17-21 points in the first half and the OSU offense HAS to get at least 2 touchdowns in the first half if we want a shot at winning this game. If the offense can’t produce more than 14 points in the first half, we will lose this game regardless if USC has less than 10 pts or not. Defense cannot have the same issue Fresno State had against USC and that is not being able to force USC to punt or kick field goals.

    My early prediction if OSU can produce and do what they need to do to win the game, I have the final being 38-35 Beavs (It won’t take a game winning field goal at the end to win, but we will be held to a FG at some point in the game if not 2 FG’s.

    If USC plays their game and OSU is stymied on offense and defense can’t create stops, this game will be closer to 49-24.

    Reply
  34. 2

    This might be the week Kliavakov takes one more shot at getting the Pac-12 Network on Direct. The game might be over by halftime, maybe the Beavs get a backdoor cover. But it’s the only game worth watch after 5 p.m.

    Reply
  35. 2
    1

    The rankings haven’t been giving the Beavs much love, but PFF loves us!

    They have us tied with USC and UCLA as the best teams in the conference and they give all three of us a 5% chance of making the CFP. Lowly Nike only has an 11% chance of winning the conference and 1% chance of making the CFP.

    Reply
  36. 2

    Based on PFF ratings, here’s how the position matchups with USC look:
    QB- adv OSU
    RB- adv USC
    WR- adv USC (though Addison definitely tips the scale here, the other guys are average and below average)
    OL- adv USC
    DL- even
    LB- adv OSU
    DB- adv OSU

    I think we all know our defense is ok, but probably not elite. This tells me to have a chance, we’re going to need Chance to continue on his current pace and the OL is going to need to finally walk the walk and get back to how they played last year. USC is going to score, but the opportunity should be there for us to do the same.

    It will be interesting to see what tack Bray takes against USC. Does he maintain the aggressive approach to try and force momentum changing plays, or does he “respect” USC more and play conservatively. The Fresno approach seemed to be to back off and prevent big plays, which is what I’m thinking we’ll see. Not sure that is the right approach, as Williams’s Achilles heel is his occasional complete breakdown in common sense that can lead to turnovers.

    From an atmosphere standpoint, I actually kind of like the away team sitting over in a construction zone in front of an empty sideline. Seems like it would take away the energy you normally get from the crowd, and there has to be some psychological edge in making your opponent experience something that different and uncomfortable.

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    • 2
      1

      You make a valid point about the away team being on the construction side where they are isolated and away from the crowd.

      Going along with your comment about Bray’s scheme against Fresno State, I see us being more aggressive with blitzing a bit more. The reason being, if we can get pressure on Williams early then his internal clock will be rushed. If we can’t get a pass rush, then go to the Fresno State defensive scheme. Haener is a seasoned QB with pinpoint accuracy. Williams hasn’t been pressured early in a game, only late when defenses go into almost desperation mode to try to create something. Haener for Fresno State was sacked multiple times by USC. Williams was sacked more times than Nolan was when we played Fresno State. So it seems like USC has a better run blocking OL than pass blocking OL. I say rush 4-5 (3 DL and 1-2 LB and 1 CB(every so often)) to keep USC guessing. The more I think about the schemes Bray has used, the more I realize he understands matchups. He won’t use one scheme as the base for every game. He will mix it up depending upon the matchup. Boise State was different than the Fresno State game and the Montana State defensive scheme was very vanilla from what I can tell. They planned to force Montana State to beat them with the run game. Our strength on defense is the secondary, then LB, then DL.

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      • 2

        Good point on the changing schemes.

        Wouldn’t you want to be more conservative and leave someone to spy Williams (preferably Fisher because Speights is like Old Many Roberts 2.0)? The damage Williams can do with his legs is probably greater than the advantage we would gain from getting, say, two sacks.

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        • 1

          Caleb Williams’ rushing stats after 3 games:
          Att Yds Avg longest TD
          27 73 2.7 28 2

          Taylen Green second half of OSU game:
          Att Yds Avg longest TD
          11 102 9.3 74 2

          Montana State against Oregon State:
          CAR YDS AVG TD LONG
          Tommy Mellott 18 135 7.5 0 19
          Sean Chambers 9 35 3.9 3 9

          I’m not concerned about running QB’s Beavs have only given up 1 long QB run all season against BSU. Once Bray realized he runs like a gazelle, he changed the defensive scheme. Beavs knew Montana State couldn’t effectively run essentially wildcat with their QB’s all game long and would eventually need to pass the ball. This defense won’t sell out to stop a run and they won’t sell out to stop the pass. They implemented a defense against Fresno State where they forced them in the Red Zone. Our Red Zone defense is amazing this season. If we put a spy on Williams, that takes away an opportunity to blitz and essentially the spy becomes a safety. Essentially, Bray will find which side of the line Williams tends to roll out or scramble from and make sure to call a delayed LB blitz early to the area where Williams likes to scramble. The more I think about the coaching side, the more excited I get to see what the coaches will implement this week against one of if not the fastest team we will face in the regular season.

          Is this the game where Damian Martinez jumps Fenwick to take the load, or do they continue the split carries between the 3 RB’s? Meaning, have we not had much focus on the running game because there is no featured RB yet? It has been a RB by committee which is a first for this length of time since Jacquizz Rodgers.

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    • 3
      2

      I think the key is to force USC to abandon the run and get Williams to play hero ball. We’re going to be in a world of hurt if they get play action going

      Reply

  37. https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaafb/3-takeaways-from-usc-s-win-over-fresno-state-trojans-defense-has-to-limit-big-plays/ar-AA11YwSj?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=98aea6f6b5f64f56acd5c748e1e83bfe

    Interesting comment here from Grinch about big plays from Fresno that basically says they looked like trick plays because the defenders didn’t follow their assignments. Seems like an advantage our offense should have given Lindgren’s desire to keep defenses off-balance with actual trick plays.

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  38. 1

    Per O-live:

    Here are statistical categories where the Beavers rank among the top 15:

    Red zone offense: T1, 100% (14 of 14)

    Punt returns: No. 2, 34.7 ypg

    Interceptions: T8, 2.00

    Sacks allowed: T10, 0.67

    Turnover margin: 11, 1.67

    Scoring offense: 13, 45.7

    Reply
  39. 3

    Just watched the highlights from Saturday and Chance looks like a machine. Going through progressions, looking off defenders, staying patient while moving around in the pocket. Granted he had guys open over the middle all day because MSU’s safeties were playing so deep, but the details of his game have really improved. The TD pass to Bolden was a beauty.

    Griffin is the only one of our backs that looks fast enough to break off a big run. Fenwick runs upright and just falls into defenders to end every run. It’s not terrible because it gets him an extra yard or two every time, but he doesn’t bounce off contact. Martinez bounces off contact well, but it takes him a while to get going afterward. Maybe it’s a confidence thing, or maybe he just lacks explosiveness. Griffin seems kind of like Lowe where he can pick up a lot of yards in a hurry in the open field, but he’s not going to create anything for himself. He does seem a little more slippery than Lowe in one-on-one situations, though.

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  40. 1
    4

    Utah kickoff set for 11am PT on PAC-12 Network.

    A potential top 15 conference matchup if the Beavs win this weekend that almost nobody nationally will be able to see.

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  41. 1

    Jamie won the Pickem this week with 9 games. Also good gor 3rd overall. BlackBandits is the overall leader.

    Only 1 person picked the UCLA game correctly, understandbly.

    New week 4 games are up. Some pretty good matchups this week. Every Pac12 team is playing another Pac team this week, so we have 6 non-Pac matchups to choose from.

    Reply
  45. 1

    My son was at that game, his first year at OSU. From before the season started the sportscasters were all saying USC was the best team to take the field since the sport was invented. I really thought the beavs would get shellacked. What a great surprise. Maybe Martinez can be Quizz for this upcoming game. So I am holding out some hope. Maybe OSU has held some things back for conference.

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  46. 3

    New PFF rankings have Beavs at #26 nationally with a 16% chance to win the conference, 5% to make the CFP, 1% to win the NC. We have one of the easiest remaining schedules out of all CFP contenders.

    So you’re telling me there’s a chance!

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    • 5

      Hard to believe our remaining schedule is considered one of the easiest when we have ranked USC/Utah/WSU(potentially)/UW/Oregon all ahead of us.

      Fortunately CO/Cal/ASU should be on the easier side.

      Reply
  48. 4

    Watched the Fresno/USC recap today. To me I think it all comes down to our DBs. Williams wants to throw it, so we need to be ready to create some turnovers in the passing game. Having already played Haener was at least good practice for our team to prepare for Williams, but we also didn’t show we had the ability to slow down Haener’s passing game until Oladapo put pressure on him in the backfield.
    Gotta dial up similar pressure and hope Williams passes aren’t on point, because Addison especially will make you pay if you can’t tackle him early.
    On offense, OSU has plenty of options to keep USC off balance. Ball security(and actually catching the ball) more than anything will be key.
    Too bad Musgrave is still out, but at least we have some backups who can block better than Luke.

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  49. 1

    Wilner with a couple points that support a focus on TO’s:
    “The Trojans are just No. 81 nationally in yards-per-play allowed (5.6) but an impressive No. 4 in turnovers created (3.33 per game). As a result, they stand 46th in points allowed (19.7 ppg). If the opportunism ever deteriorates, things could get dicey.“
    And:
    “We examined the box scores from three memorable OSU victories over the Trojans — the 2006 and 2008 upsets of the Carroll-era juggernauts and the breakthrough win last year in the Coliseum — and what jumped off the page? USC had 14 turnovers in the three games, while the Beavers had two.”

    Reply

    • Oddly, in the Carrol era, the Beavers matched up well against the Trojans. Plus, turnover advantage.

      This year, how does Beavers Oline match up against USC DLine and LBs? That should be a key match up and the Beavers OLine needs to play like last year.

      How does OSU DLine match up against USC OLine? I suspect USC has the advantage there. I feel good about OSU LBs and DBs, and the depth their. I hope Lolohea is good to go, and Julian.

      Nearly every year, USC has a “Hesiman-Caliber” QB and NFL-bound WRs, and yet somehow OSU has a pattern of beating them. I think OSU is coming in not viewing themselves as underdogs. They understand they belong on the same field and can win. USC does not likely view OSU that way: advantage OSU.

      My concern is as identified above; USC going for late hits and cheap shots to take out playmakers. OSU has to be ready for that, stay calm, and deliver clean, legal, hard shots of their own when they can. OSU has actually gotten much better at wrapping, and I think they emphasize secure tackles over just pure impact efforts.

      Reply
  50. 1

    There may be parallels to OSU vs USC in Lincoln Riley’s resume if you examine his OU vs Iowa St matchups.
    Riley had a clunker each year at OU and it wasn’t against the blue blood teams.

    I hope all of the portal Trojans are overlooking lowly OSU.
    2008 is the recipe: run, score first and often, get to the qb, turnovers at key moments & turn those into points, ball security then hold them off in the 4th quarter

    Reply
  51. 2

    I’m seeing a lot of run the ball and control the clock, get to Williams. I agree with that sentiment but the run game hasn’t been clicking like in the past years and our pass rush has not been very impressive this year. They have 3 sacks in 3 games so far and didn’t even get 1 against Montana State. I know you can still pressure the QB even if you don’t get to him but this is pretty concerning. I think cal poly even had 3 sacks at Fresno. Chatfield has done a pretty good job at getting pressure and probably needs more playing time.

    Reply
  55. 3
    1

    I have had this feeling hanging over me that Martinez is about to go off. It grows larger every week. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s against the shaky run defense of the Trojans.

    Reply
    • 1

      Have the Beavers been holding back on the running game to help Nolan get more relaxed passing? With that, also giving Fenwick a chance to prove himself in the run game while easing Martinez into the featured back role? Hard on Fenwick and Griffin being the back to give the true freshman a breather. Coach Smith makes you earn your position through reps and going through the process. Martinez is the real deal, but is he still missing assignments? Is he missing key blocks? Is he hitting his “spot” on his pass routes out of the backfield? There is a lot of details he still might need to learn. Is he on the same level as Fenwick, or has he made the jump past Fenwick? Give Fenwick a chance against USC, but ball control needs to be emphasized with Fenwick. We cannot afford a fumble against USC.

      Reply

      • PFF ratings say Martinez is better in every aspect of the game. Could be a sample size thing where they’re giving Fenwick more complex assignments or something, but my eyes and PFF ratings say Martinez is better and it’s not really close.

        For reference, 60 is the base value (e.g. a guy who plays one play and performs average would get a 60 rating)

        Martinez-
        OVR- 71
        RUN- 73
        REC- 53
        PBLK- 52

        Fenwick-
        OVR- 60
        RUN- 64
        REC- 40
        PBLK- 22

        Reply
        • 1
          1

          If you read the thread where we discuss the depth chart, I was upset Smith didn’t start Martinez. He is the best back and should be getting way more carries. His film is dynamic. The other guys are all fine, but they’re not dynamic.

          Reply

          • Martinez may or may not end up being the featured back and I am not saying he is or isn’t better than Fenwick. I’m just not sure PFF ratings or high school film translates to him supplanting Fenwick at this point. He has carried the ball 23 times for a 4.7YPC average. Fenwick has averaged over 5YPC over his OSU career, and I will take that all day every day. I think they are making a mistake with Martinez by not giving him more than a play or 2 at a time. Give him a full drive to start getting into the flow. But that includes pass blocking, proper reads and routes as well as packing the ball. If he becomes the #1 guy then great, that means he is doing all the other things right besides running the ball and he is beating out a very solid back.

            Reply
  57. 4

    Just watched the USC-Stanford highlights. Stanford moved the ball pretty much at will on the USC defense, but choked horribly in the red zone. Stanford’s offense reminds me of ours, but more vanilla. No reason we can’t score points on them.

    Also, the Stanford crowd for that game was embarrassing. Saturday will be the first real road test for USC.

    Reply
    • 4

      Agree. We will score some points. Their D is pretty fast but not that good. Our line hasn’t been as dominant as they should be (i.e. on paper). It’s almost like they play to the level of competition. They’re going to need to get more push in the run game.

      Reply
  58. 3

    That ‘fast’ thing is what concerns me. Nolan has been throwing well and into some pretty tight windows. But I don’t know how well that will work when the DBs you’re facing are faster that you’re accustomed to. Hopefully he takes that into account.

    Reply
    • 2

      Fresno had good corners and he was fine. I think we’ll see it more affect the run game. I think we have to pass to beat USC. Our line just hasn’t gotten enough push in the run game. Nolan has had a performance jump due to all the reps. Wouldn’t really worry about him at this point. He’s a way better player this year, and I think he can beat their corners. I can see something like 4TD passes, 380 yards, and 1 or 2 INTs for Nolan. I think we’ll be lucky to rush for 80 yards. Martinez could be a dark horse there and up that to 120 if he gets more carries. I mean, I hope we can run better than that and pass less, but given our line play I don’t see that happening vs USC’s strengths.

      Reply
      • 2

        Looked like a lot of tight, handsy coverage by USC CB’s against Stanford. They got flagged for it a few times, but they’re going to err on the side of being aggressive. Our little receivers might struggle with that.

        Reply
      • 1

        I see more like 250 passing and 220 total for rushing this game. The OL took about 3-4 games last season to really get going as well.

        https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/schedule/_/id/204/season/2021

        https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/schedule/_/id/204/season/2022

        similar situation this season as last season
        2021 stats:
        Purdue game, Lowe 27 yards, Baylor 24 yards, Nolan 13 yards, (Fenwick 1 yard on 1 carry)
        Hawaii game was Baylor with 171 yards. Nolan 38 yards, Lowe 26 yards, Fenwick 8 yards
        Idaho Baylor 69 yards, Lowe 68 yards, Fenwick 59 yards, Nolan 21 yards
        USC Baylor 158 yards, Nolan 57 yards, Fenwick 53 yards

        2022 stats:
        Boise State: Colletto 44 yards, Martinez 40 yards, Fenwick 39 yards, Lowe 32 yards, Nolan 28 yards
        Fresno State: Fenwick 102 yards, Bolden 36 yards, Martinez 18 yards
        Montana State: Fenwick 63 yards, Martinez 50 yards, Griffin 47 yards, Nolan 25 yards, Shannon 21 yards, Gulbranson 13 yards
        USC: ? Look to see more QB designed runs for Nolan this game and Fenwick and Martinez to have a break out game.

        Reply
    • 2

      so you’re saying Nolan will have the same problems he had in camp with throwing interceptions? I would imagine the balls will be deflected more than intercepted if they are contested balls.

      Reply
      • 3
        1

        Every QB is going to throw 1 or 2INTs when they throw 40 to 50 times, and that’s the number of attempts I expect. It’s more a reflection of USC’s speed, tipped balls, our guys dropping balls/deflecting them to USC, and just normal probabilities in football.

        Reply
        • 2

          I’d be shocked to see Nolan have 40-50 attempts. I actually think we’ll be able to run the ball effectively vs SC. I’m thinking we come out very balanced with Nolan throwing 30-35 times. Lot’s of play action with deep routes. Ideally we can get 40+ rush attempts and establish the run by 4th quarter. The key is to get the lead early, take care of the ball, and limit big plays on special teams. We’re screwed if we fall behind by 14+ and have to rely on Nolan for 40-50 attempts. That plays to SC strength on D… pass rush and speed in defensive backfield. They’re weakness IMO is stopping the run and even though we haven’t gelled yet I still think our O line is our biggest strength.

          Reply
          • 7
            2

            I have said this a number of times. Beavs are 10-0 since 2021 when they score 14 or more points in the first half. Whether they have the lead or not.

            Play action works when the opponent isn’t pinning their ears back with blitzing. It’s meant to freeze and hold the LB’s and Safeties in man-to-man coverage and the defense as a hole in zone while the WR’s get behind the defenders or find the gaps in the zone defense. This is what makes Bray’s defense so difficult to plan for because they will be in zone one minute and man to man in the other or meld the two together.

            Everyone keeps saying our running game isn’t on point. Is it because we’re not breaking 25+ yard runs like Ryan Nall, Quizz, Baylor, Colletto(1 time) have done in the past? With a team like USC coming in that can potentially score on every possession, I would much rather have long methodical drives where we get 6-8 yard runs and 10-15 yard completions with about 4-6 deep balls in the game. The run game all season has complimented the pass game. We aren’t pass heavy and we aren’t run heavy. We’ve had more deep passes this season than long runs.

            Reply
          • 1
            1

            The team is having negative runs, no gains and the lanes haven’t been there like in years past. I think we’re missing TQ in the run game.

            Reply
          • 1

            …key is to get the lead early, take care of the ball, and limit big plays on special teams

            I agree, and would add specifically that taking care of the ball is part of controlling the clock, that’s key for me. Limit SC offensive possessions. Clock awareness in managing the play clock and in scoring (or preventing SC score) near the end of the first half also figure into controlling clock.
            Agree also on the run/pass balance; I see less than 40 passes.

            Coach M has a great rep, is it primarily due to building players up or to in game scheming? Hoping he has his O-line locked in for their best performance this season.

            Reply
  59. 2

    theScore says bet on the Beavs if the line is +7 or higher. Beavs will go score for score with USC and “this one has upset special written all over it.”

    Reply
  60. 5
    1

    Beavs piping in the USC fight song. Great idea. I love that they’re thinking of these things. I’ve talked about stuff like this a lot in the past, and they’re finally doing many of those things. Being aware of what you’re going to face and prepping for it is pretty much the key to success.

    Reply
  66. 1

    The more I think about this game, the more I lean toward how well Nolan needs to play.

    USC is going to load up to stop the run. Nolan is going to need to complete passes to open up the run game early. Not necessarily down field throws but enough intermediate throws for the defense to back off. He’ll need to be around a 70% completion rate. Take what the defense gives him and occasionally take off to move the chains.

    Reply
  67. 1

    Interesting, the line varies between Beavs +5.5 to +7 depending on which sports book you’re looking at. That’s quite a bit of variance, doesn’t seem like anyone can figure this game out. My initial instinct while watching the Fresno game was USC by closer to 2 TDs but since then I’ve been persuaded that the Beav offense can score with them and the line should be under 10. The range of outcomes is so wide, I wouldn’t be surprised if it was a 7 point win or a 28 point loss, which is why the anxiety level leading up to it is so high.

    Reply
  68. 2
    4

    Stat I worry about – USC has seven INTs this year, averaging 30 yards a return. Their DBs could own this game. Seem like the best strategy for the Beavs is to milk the clock with runs and short passes, pile up first downs and keep USC’s offense off the field as much as possible. I don’t see Oregon State winning if USC scores more than 24 points.

    Reply

    • Time of possession helps, but only if you limit the turnovers. Offense cannot turn the ball over unless we also get a turnover and score. We must at minimum be even or have positive turnover margin. How many of the interceptions by Rice, Stanford and Fresno State were forced errant throws? Also, we can’t fumble the ball either. Stanford turned the ball over twice at the goal line. 1 INT and 1 by fumble. Stanford hurt themselves. USC is beatable, but offense has to protect the ball and defense has to work on slowing down their offense.

      Reply
  71. 2

    They dont get Utah till mid October though?

    But if we’re being honest, that really is their biggest test this year. Their schedule is really soft outside of OSU/Utah/WSU.

    No Oregon and no UW and Notre Dame is the only remaining Non-con game

    Reply

    • I wonder how the USC players will see it. It’s basically a brand new team coming into town. How motivated will they be? Their leading offensive players are all new guys this year.

      The PAC12 tends to screw itself over in terms of playoff chances. Not sure this is one of those games.

      Reply
  72. 2
    1

    Beavers haven’t been tested yet. Maybe they were tested by Fresno, but barely passed. USC certainly wasn’t tested by Fresno. At least USC has proven they can beat another Pac12 team. I don’t think anybody knows how good the Beavers are yet. That and their history with USC is jeeping the betting line close. We’ll find out how good they really are Saturday. A win or a close loss should give us a lot of hope for the rest of the season.

    Reply
    • 4

      All I can say is, I am glad this is a home game this year and not in LA. If this were in LA, we would suffer the same fate as Fresno State(possibly injuries included). Since this game is in Reser(team has already played in the half built stadium) It will be a completely different venue than any team in College football will experience other than Hawaii.

      Was USC tested on the road at Stanford? Stanford had 2 missed opportunities in the red zone. Oregon State has one of the top red zone offenses in the country. I am really looking forward to this game because I honestly believe USC is over looking the Beavers. They may think, “Cute team, but we’re USC.” Ball control and limiting the turnovers is the key to winning this game. No stupid passes and cover the damn rock when you run with the ball!

      Reply
    • 3

      USC and Stanford looked fairly even. It was a two-score game and Stanford gifted the game with poor RZ play and stupid turnovers.

      I think OSU’s performance against the BSU defense was more impressive than anything USC has done so far, but all in all, our SOS to date is very similar. Sagarin has USC at #49, OSU at #42. Shockingly we have two of the highest SOS’s of any team in the top 30.

      Reality-based analysis would lead one to conclude this game should be pretty close (hence the betting line). The heavy bias in predictions toward USC are all a product of hype and recruiting rankings.

      Reply
    • 4

      “At least USC has proven they can beat another Pac12 team. I don’t think anybody knows how good the Beavers are yet. ”

      I don’t think they’re necessarily an unknown. This is a veteran-heavy Beaver team with a recent track record of playing well at home, playing much less well on the road, and playing down to competition on the road.

      One of the few convincing road wins last year however was @ USC (albeit one with an interim coach, but still, loaded with highly ranked recruits).

      I think there’s rationale to expect them to be competitive at home and a win should not be surprising to anyone but the mass media pundits. And i don’t think a loss means a meaningful season is lost.

      They’ve exorcised some demons and they’re finally competitive in league play, they have a few injuries, and some games are going to be “pick-em” type games.

      Reply
  73. 1
    2

    Listening to Nick Daschel’s podcast with Kyle White is cringe. Nick has absolutely no energy on his podcast. You can tell “This is just my job. I have to cover Oregon State, but I am not emotionally tied to the team.” Kyle White keeps stating this is a “Big Boy Game” and gotta put on our “Big Boy Pants” for this game. He bought hook line and sinker into GA’s mentality, but football is football.

    Reply
      • 3

        He’s from the GA days and he’s stuck in the past. he admitted it shortly after Daschell pressed him on his prediction. If USC and the country still think this is not a better team than last year, they are going to be shocked! Utah will take us seriously if USC surely doesn’t. I hope USC thinks this will be like playing Rice or Fresno State. Fresno State lost all the fight in them from us beating them on their turf. They were deflated in the game @ USC, let alone it was a road game for Fresno State.

        Reply
  74. 1

    I have not seen this mentioned but we will be seeing 2 coaches go up against each other for the first time that I know of. I have no idea how Riley will game plan against Smith and vice versa. I do think Smith makes other coaches do things they might not normally do because he is known to be aggressive. Smiths reputation could pay off helping him get a win or two due to other coaches overthinking. I don’t think Riley is that good of an in game coach but the talent he has always had helps offset it.

    Reply
    • 2

      Wazzu roster was more comparable to the mean machine than the semi pro team assembled currently in LA, but point well taken; scheme-wise, we should be in good shape.

      Reply

  76. Wow, ticket prices are ramping up.
    On the OSU website they had 500 standing room only tickets for sale on Monday, at $30 a pop.
    Now, those same tix on the OSU website are $92.

    Can’t imagine paying $92 to stand for 4 hours.
    They really should just let people sit down below the press box on the concrete area, even if seats havent been installed over there yet.

    Reply
    • 1
      2

      Also shows OSU is willing to change single game ticket prices on the fly, so prepare to be gouged the rest of the season if the team stays successful.

      Reply

        • As far as I know it’s standing room only on the main terrace. So behind the seats but in front of the Valley Center i think.
          But they havent been very clear about where the tickets place you. Sort of feels like a cash grab now that they can see there’s demand.
          I cant blame them, but i bet alot of actual terrace seat owners are going to be annoyed at all of the people clogging up the walkways. People like to bitch

          Reply

    • “Can’t imagine paying $92 to stand for 4 hours.”

      How about victory dancing for 4 hours?!?

      Seriously it would be a great view without people yelling at you to sit down…

      Reply

    • Interesting interview. He compares, in a positive manner, Smith and Riley, saying they’re both intensively competitive, and says Riley was at least as competitive as Erickson if not more so, because Riley agreed to games like LSU and Erickson didn’t (not smart IMO – as we know most big programs have non-con cupcakes). He says this USC team is “SC, and you know what that means” and he talks like the Beavers are underdogs that need to run Fenwick, Martinez, and Colletto, and not be going pass happy or its “going to be a long night.” its like he thinks the Beavers are huge underdogs, which they aren’t.

      I don’t disagree with the need to establish a running game, but the Beavers can pass the ball too (did last year) and their pass protection so far is better than their run blocking.

      Worth a listen.

      Reply
  78. 5

    One thing that may be getting overlooked is special teams. Hayes is injured and missed 2 extra points last game. They allowed a kick return for a TD as well not to mention against Fresno when the game was tight they allowed them to get a big punt return near the end of the game to setup a short drive. I know Gould had a great special teams game and that’s awesome and hopefully he can keep on doing that. My one concern there is him possibly getting greedy and not calling a fair catch. Hopefully thats not the case. The kicking game is what really scares me though. If this does in fact end up being a close game a FG and a couple of extra points could be the difference. I just could potentially see a luck o’ da Beavs situation where it comes down to a missed kick. Hopefully this team continues to be different and I’m just traumatized from too many years of previous beaver teams.

    Reply

      • Thos game I would think that would play a big part in it. Especially if USC is firing. This game the Oline really needs to step up and help us in those short yardage situations.

        Reply
    • 3

      Actually, Hayes missed 1 FG and 1 XP. Atticus missed his first XP attempt, but made the rest. I imagine his first miss was more nerves than anything. I remember when Alexis Serna missed multiple XP’s @ LSU and came back to win the Lou Groza award. So I’m not too concerned about Atticus’s ability to kick at this point. He should know how to prepare and how to keep his nerves in check.

      Reply

      • Serna is a classic luck o’ da Beavs story tho. First game of the season against defending national champs should’ve of won but one of the worst kicking performances in history cost them.

        Reply
  79. 4

    Special shoutout to the U of Arizona AP voter who had us at #17 this week! Predictably, the Beavs got basically no votes East of the Mississippi, and barely nothing East of PAC-12 territory.

    Reply
    • 3
      2

      winning fixes that problem. Beat USC and the country will take notice. Then go beat Utah and the country will jump on the hype train.

      Oregon State is the “Best kept Secret in the Pac-12”. Our resurgence is as quiet as the new Pac-12 media rights deal. I’m not saying we haven’t “Beaten anyone”, but the country views it that way. They look at the scoreboard and see our 1 road game was close and they look at the box score and have no idea how tough Fresno State really was for the Beavers. If they had watched the Beavers game and then watched the Fresno State @ USC game, they would see a different Fresno State team against USC.

      Reply

  80. So doesn’t the new scoreboard do graphic tricks of some kind? Are they still working through it, and are there any planned uses of it this weekend? For a night game, they should be able to do some cool stuff if creative.

    Reply
  82. 1

    Yogi Roth said on the Joe Beaver Podcast interview with Mike Parker said in the Pac-12 pregame of the Oregon State vs USC will have The JackHammer mic’d up during warmups. Should be entertaining enough.

    Reply

  83. Also, if people don’t want to listen to Yogi Roth on the Pac-12 Network or Mike Parker on the Beavers sports network, then here’s an alternate for you.

    Tim Euhus will be an analyst for this broadcast company for the game this weekend. I might tune in for a bit to see how he does, but I’m used to Mike Parker and Big Jim Wilson.

    https://ntlsportsnetwork.com/#schedule

    Reply
  85. 5

    From USAToday Week 4 picks:

    Jace Evans

    No. 7 Southern California is riding high, with QB Caleb Williams leading a top-10 scoring attack that has helped reinvigorate the program. But the defense has been nothing to write home about so far, sitting 82nd in the country in yards allowed per game. That group may struggle going against an Oregon State offense that can score in bunches. The 3-0 Beavers will have the home crowd behind them and will be armed with the confidence they gained from last year’s beatdown of USC in Los Angeles. I think they find a way to win a shootout to hand USC its first loss under Lincoln Riley.

    Paul Myerberg

    Oregon State beats Caleb Williams and Southern California to earn a spot in the Top 25 and completely shake up the race in the Pac-12. While USC has taken on front runner status with Utah and Oregon already holding a loss, a loss on Saturday would out OSU into position to finish in the top two and play for a New Year’s Six bowl. The Beavers could end up being one of the surprise teams of the season. “

    Reply
    • 1

      One thing is for sure, this game is generating a lot of buzz for the Pac12. A lot of good stories due to the history between these teams. Beavs have a chance to make headlines this weekend or fall back into irrelevance for another week.

      Reply
    • 6

      Ugh. It’s almost like everyone is going out of their way to remind USC that this is a trap game for them. Don’t love the idea of them feeling disrespected heading in to this game. Something is off, I don’t remember the Beavs ever getting this much praise as an underdog.

      Reply
    • 5

      Part of winning and having success is learning to deal with both internal and external expectations and external perceptions. Its a good problem to have.

      Smith has been a winner at OSU, @ BSU, and @ UW so hopefully he’s keeping the team steady and focused.

      This is another aspect psychology over the course of the season.

      Beats the hell out of losing and there being NO expectations of the team winning a game like this.

      Reply
    • 1

      That’s absurd.

      But, OSU is 14/14 in the red zone:

      “Oregon State is 14 out of 14 in red zone attempts through three games this season, which presents a direct clash when the team faces USC this weekend. The Trojans have limited their opponents to a success rate of 53.8% in the red zone.”

      This game has the potential to be so entertaining. Hope it lives up to the build up.

      Reply
  90. 3

    NB,
    Saw the visitor list on Twitter and a few names caught my eye. Would the staff be bringing in these guys if the interest isn’t mutual? I can see Fite exploring his options with Herm being let go but Daylen Austin and Zurich Ashford? Would be crazy to flip a LSU commit. Makes this game even bigger. Love that we’ll have a lot of commits visiting too, especially Chiles.

    Reply
    • 1

      Chiles now listed as a 4* if I’m not mistaken. Wasn’t he a high 3 when he committed? Knew he had a lot of opportunity to get higher stars for sure. #17 qb in country per Nemek

      Reply
    • 1

      Impressive list, still want some DTs though to allow the D to get to another level.

      OSU is likely a Suh away from having gone to a rose bowl…Paea + Suh would have been fun to watch.

      Reply
  92. 2

    A note on Amazon telecast and viewing, a platform which gives hope for the PAC:

    “Amazon Prime

    “Thursday Night Football” on Amazon Prime is already “exceeding expectations.” Last week’s Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs primetime tilt averaged 15.3 million viewers across all platforms, according to Nielsen and Amazon’s first party measurement. “

    Reply
    • 2

      The thing about Amazon is they also cross promote their products, including their shopping website and packaging delivered to millions of households daily.

      And while I hate Jeff Bezos, I would not be sad if Amazon were to acquire rights keeping the pac together with a healthy check, .

      Reply
        • 4

          He’s the Executive Chairman and still very much benefits from Amazon doing well. He may not be CEO, but as founder, former CEO, and Chairman of the Board, you can bet he’s still VERY influential there.

          Reply
      • 2

        Smart people! Sara Elanco is very good at her job! She is the Associate AD and has asked fans to give feedback on things to improve or what is working and they are responding. Putting new temp speakers on the West side to help with dead sound areas in the stadium, getting ahead of the amount of students who want to be at the game, or around the stadium in the first game with students back. When the band plays in the concourse on the East side, it can be heard inside the stadium. So having students cheer and yell from outside the stadium will be added noise for sure. So they need to make sure the watch party yells on defense too.

        Reply
        • 1

          Students don’t know they can sneak into the game if they don’t have a ticket?

          Pretty standard operation these days for overflow crowds. See it a lot in the NBA playoffs. Wonder how many students will actually show up. It also can be a little frustrating since the TV broadcast is about a minute behind.

          Maybe if the Beavs win, they’ll let them in to rush the field.

          Reply
          • 6

            No rushing the field on this one. This game is pivotal for an amazing season. Save the field rushing for the Civil War, pac-12 championship, and beyond. Erickson told his players to not pour the Gatorade cooler over him until they win their bowl game. I remember one game, Chad Johnson and TJ poured cups of water or Gatorade on coach Erickson’s head after a regular season win. They all got a chuckle out of it.

            Reply
    • 3

      Love it. The ‘Beaver Block Party’ has been a great addition to the game day experience. The AD should be given kudos when they do something right.

      Reply

      • Yeah, no need to create bulletin board material for the condom machine.

        I’m sure part of the 1-4 record Angry cites, is the ranked teams looking past the little team from out in Corvallis.

        Reply
      • 3
        1

        Yep, all this means is that we are due for a reversion to the mean. My initial instinct was USC by 2 scores which ironically was the “bad” Vegas opening line that caused the money to come flowing in on the Beavs. Hate to be Debbie Downer here but I just get the feeling that anything less than a perfect performance by the offense will lead to us falling behind. The wheels could easily come off at that point.

        Reply
    • 3
      10

      We don’t do well against traditional blue bloods when they have a chip on their shoulder.

      USC is going to want to blow us out at home, and I see that happening.

      Reply
      • 2
        1

        USC is USC this year per Simonton. This is not va Riley lead team. I’m not worried about going toe to toe with USC. There will be wrinkles in this game that will keep USC off balance. Not saying Beavs have been playing vanilla, on Offense and defense, but the only trick play so far has been the Dunmore pass against BSU. This has hype because this is a test Game for both teams due to the fact, they are both unbeaten.

        Reply
  98. 12

    I don’t get the negative reaction to Beavers receiving attention and even being picked by some pundits. This is part of growing into a winner.

    If you thinks this is too much, what would you expect with a rose bowl?

    The best way to avoid attention and being favored is mediocrity. No thanks. We’ve had decades of that.

    Smith has been slowly building a D1 team that belongs on the field with any team in the PAC. The chronic underdog role is hopefully going out.

    Its up to Smith and the team to manage expectations and ignore hype. Its part of the learning process, and it will be entertaining to see how they handle it tomorrow.

    I remember when S-I said Oregon was “Rich, cool, and 4-0,” then WSU went in and destroyed them in Autzen.

    Again, its a good problem to have and beats the alternative of no one caring.

    Reply
    • 3

      Exactly. You’re not going to be under the radar forever if you actually want to have a successful season.

      I also think many of you are living in the Beaver bubble and are perceiving there’s way more 3rd party optimism for the Beavs than there actually is. The onslaught of “USC is a playoff team” and “Caleb Williams is a Heisman favorite” articles this week has been unbearable.

      Reply
      • 2
        2

        There’s no need to get outside the “Beaver bubble” to know what’s going on out there. Just look at the spread. It’s down to -6.0 for USC and has moved in the Beavers favor all week.

        Reply
      • 3

        I think you guys may be misunderstanding. The high expectations don’t bother me personally, I just haven’t seen how the team handles it yet. If they continue to win when fans expect them to, then they’ve made significant progress.

        Reply
      • 2

        I think it has to do with having the feeling that “you only get so many chances” with the Beavs, so the stakes seem higher with each one. And it really sucks that much more when they don’t come through, a la our prior season lamentations about giving away a chance for the Rose Bowl in a down year for the league.

        Reply
    • 1
      1

      Great points. Beaver fans are upset by being snubbed by ESPN and FOX, yet, when hype comes out from Vegas, then we panic as if we’re no longer a team that is no longer being overlooked. There comes a time in program where your mentality switches from ‘we’re the underdog. We’re overlooked by the country, by our opponent, by not being recruited by USC, etc.” To, “I came to Oregon State to win. To play our style of football. I chose Oregon State and Oregon State accepted me. I play with my brothers on this team and they play with me. We know who and what we are and it’s time to show the country we are the best.”

      Football is such a mental game. I can see why coach Smith is an amazing recruiter. He’s already instilling in his recruits their level of game is elite. Almost all the committed recruits jumped about 2.0 pts in their ratings from the composite ratings. I can’t remember a class that has improved their level of game once they commit. Maybe I never paid enough attention, idk.

      Reply
      • 2
        5

        You’re talking like you’re one of the players. You’re not. The way you deal with expectations is not connected to the way the players deal with expectations. That’s why you get what’s been going on at Nebraska. The fans have great expectations for the team, but the team is not able to live up to those expectations.

        Reply
        • 2
          3

          I’m not on the team, but I follow the teams lead. You’re new to this site so I’ll give you a pass. I have played football and have studied the game to where I recognize the mentality of the players and coaches on the team. From interviews, to articles, to watching 30 years of Oregon State home football games with 76% of those seasons being in person at the stadium. I’ve seen the ups and downs, I’ve seen what bad football looks like, I’ve seen what good football looks like and I’ve seen what elite football looks like.

          As a fan, you mirror what product is on the field. The product we have is learning what it takes to win in multiple ways. Win with the lead looked way better against Montana State than BSU. Win a close tight game with multiple lead changes. Win from behind on the road. This team is building each week and breaking down past bad habits Mike Riley teams would have folded in or come out flat. This team is different. This team has swagger, confidence, and it comes from players, coaches, faculty and staff, student body, and fans in that order. Remember what losing felt like and work on not letting that feeling happen again. Winning builds upon itself. As a fan, we ride with the team. They’re up we’re up. They’re down, we’re down. Enjoy the confidence and enjoy the new era of Oregon State football!

          Reply
        • 1
          1

          In regards to Nebraska fans, they are all depressed and down on themselves. Being as I live in Nebraska and have made friends with lifetime Husker fans, they want to get back to the winning ways, but their fan base is so diverse. You have fans that are arm chair QB’s who have clearly never played the game themselves or been coaches. They’re still living in the past. The Boosters are the ones who have the high expectations for the program and throw money around to find a quick fix/flash in the pan hire and aren’t willing to find a coach like Smith. Honestly, Nebraska fans want to see developed players that can do open field tackles like we have at Oregon State. I’m watching a game with a Husker buddy of mine tomorrow night and he hasn’t seen us play yet. So I’m curious to see what he thinks of our team.

          Reply
  99. 1

    WEEK 4 PHIL STEELE REPORT

    USC leads series 63-12-4, winning 4 of the last 5 (3-2 ATS). Last time here (‘18) the Trojans (-15) ran all over the Beavers with 332 rush yards (7.5 ypc) & 4 rushing TD in a 38-21 win but needed a FG with 4:42 left for a front door cover. Home team is 14-3 SU & 11-6 ATS since ’98 but Oregon State won on the road last year in a 45-27 game as an 11-point AD (Most points OSU has ever scored on USC) in interim HC Williams first home game. Tied 14-14 Oregon State took over with 1:12 left and went 92/5 for TD with :44 remaining, and USC drove 66/6 for a 26 yd FG to make the score 21- 17 at halftime. Oregon State scored TD’s on their 1st 3 possessions of the 3Q to lead 42-17 and won 45-27 with a 535-431 yd edge. Oregon State was 5-11 SU in Smith’s first 3 years but 6-0 at home last year. Oregon State opened with a strong win at home vs Boise State 34-17, then got a last play TD to get past Fresno State on the road. Last week they moved to 3-0 as they were only -13’ at open vs a Montana State team that played in the national title game last year and Oregon St was -15’ by close, and my computer had them winning by 34. Montana State had a QB rotation and Wyoming transfer Sean Chambers had 3 rushing TD’s. First 3 possessions were all TD’s and Oregon State led 14-7. Oregon State drove 58/7 for a TD after an interception, then Montana State scored on a 99 yd KR TD to make it 21-14 with 10:53 left in the half. Oregon State drove twice, a 75/8 for a TD and a 12/2 for a TD (int), then missed a FG for a 34-14 halftime score. Gould scored on a 80 yd punt return TD. Montana State drove 75/11 for a TD to cut it to 40-21, but then it ballooned to 61-21. Oregon State’s last TD with 3:02 left made the final 68-28 with the Beavers having a 538-269 yardage edge. That game was played in Portland at a soccer stadium that seats just 25,000. USC got 3 interception return TD’s and rolled over Rice 66-14, then beat Stanford 41-28 at home despite being out first downed 33-24 as they were +4 TO’s for the 2nd straight week. Last week they were -12’ at home vs Fresno State, and USC scored TD’s on their first 3 drives and led 21-3, with a 21-10 halftime score. QB Haener was injured in the first series of the 3Q. USC scored 3 TD & FG on 4 of their 2H possessions, and Fresno State had a fumble, missed a 48 yd FG, and was stopped on downs at the 22 and 1 yd lines in the 2H leading to USC’s 45-17 win. Backup Fife was 11-12-140. Both have faced Fresno State. My Average Game Grades have this right at the number with USC by 6.9 and my computer has them winning by 7. Both teams are 3-0 ATS this year so tough to go vs either.

    USC 38 OREGON STATE 31

    POSITION BY POSITION EDGES:

    WHEN USC HAS THE BALL:
    USC QB/WR’s vs Oregon State DB’s: USC +1.36
    USC RB’s vs Oregon State LB’s: USC +0.34
    USC OL vs Oregon State DL: USC +1.25

    WHEN OREGON STATE HAS THE BALL:
    Oregon State QB/WR’s vs USC DB’s: USC +0.48
    Oregon State RB’s vs USC LB’s: USC +0.32
    Oregon State OL vs USC DL: ORST +0.25

    MISCELLANEOUS:
    Special Teams: ORST +1.61
    Kicking: ORST +0.50
    Coaching Staff: ORST +0.50

    POSITIONAL EDGE AWARDED TO: USC +0.91

    PROJECTED BOX SCORE (USC-ORST):
    Projected Rushing: 152-211
    Projected Passing: 316-225
    Projected Yardage Total: 468-436
    Projected Final Score: 41-34
    Experience Rankings: 102-22
    Team Schedule Strength: 30-40

    Las Vegas Line: USC by 5.5
    Las Vegas Total: 70.5 Points
    +/- Ratings: Oregon State by 7.8
    Game Grade: USC by 6.9
    Computer Yards: USC 468-436
    Computer Points: USC 42-35
    Spreadsheet Prediction: USC by 5

    OTHER PAC-12 PREDICTIONS
    UCLA 38 Colorado 13
    Utah 34 Arizona State 14
    Oregon 31 Washington State 20
    California 24 Arizona 23
    Washington 38 Stanford 24

    Reply

    • Phil Steele Week 3 record: 10-1 overall 29-5 85% accuracy Looks like everyone except ASU beat who they were supposed to beat. some teams did better(OSU, CAL, Oregon, Washington State) Others, not so much(UCLA and ASU) I am not including USC in the better category because Haener was taken out and Fresno State was in a let down game, but an argument could be made they belong in the better category. All the other teams won within the margin of victory Phil Steele came up with within 7 pts. That’s not better, that’s expected.

      Only game he got wrong was ASU over Eastern Michigan. The only score he had exactly correct was USC 45

      OREGON STATE 41 MONTANA STATE 20 – W 68-28
      UCLA 38 South Alabama 17 – W 32-31
      Notre Dame 27 California 3 – BEST BET (NDME -10.5) – W 24-17
      Minnesota 41 Colorado 10 – W 49-7
      Oregon 31 BYU 30 – W 41-20
      Washington State 30 Colorado State 17 – W 38-7
      Washington 30 Michigan State 23 – W 39-28
      Utah 38 San Diego State 10 – W 35-7
      USC 45 Fresno State 33 – W 45-17
      Arizona State 35 Eastern Michigan 23 – L 30-21
      Arizona 27 North Dakota State 24 – W 31-28

      Reply
  100. 4

    In games like these where the Beavs are the underdog, I look to see how many things need to go right for the Beavs to win. If there are a lot, then I don’t have a lot of confidence.

    I’m about 50/50 on this game. Beavs don’t need everything to go right but they do need to have some key things go right.

    Things that have to go right,
    Win the turnover battle. Don’t have to have zero turnovers, just less than USC.
    Bend but don’t break defense. Don’t give up easy TDs. Third down defense has to hold over 50% of the time.
    Move the ball well enough to have no three and outs. Win time of possession.

    I expect to see a lot of creativity on offense. Lots of misdirection and the occasional trick play. Hopefully called in the right situations.

    Reply
    • 4

      I just want to see them play a composed offensive game plan and avoid being tempted by the home run play on 1st down. They may work occasionally, but more often they don’t and it pretty much kills the drive. Then the defense has to spend more time on the field.
      I’d much rather the home run plays happen with short passing plays extended by YAC, rather than getting all of the yards through the air.
      And hold onto the ball. USC will be teeing off on our guys trying to force the ball loose. We saw it happen a few times vs Fresno where Harrison and Lindsey both had catches dislodged as soon as the ball was in their hands. Gotta be prepared for those hits.

      Reply
  101. 3

    Steele’s report is good this week. Surface level he’s right with that pick (ie. the safe pick), but I think some beavs are being undervalued (eg. Gould, Martinez, Julian if he returns, that safety with the weird name, etc) in that analysis. Does he get that into the weeds? I doubt it.

    Beavs probably need a big ST play and positive turnover ratio to win. Very doable. The more I look at uscs rush defense the less I like it, too. Our line hasn’t lived up to expectations. Maybe this big game is what’s needed to wake them up. Sleeping giant there. Beavs should score 34 points or more. So it’s on our D to stop that QB. Fischer healthy? Should spy Williams.

    Reply
    • 1

      Except the special teams advantage for OSU is questionable since the kicking game is dicey and coverage units have left a lot to be desired.

      Reply

    • Anybody know the injury status of USC’s OL/DL?
      Last I saw, their top 2 Blindside guards were injured and sat out last week, leaving them pretty vulnerable. Is either guy back?

      And then I want to say one of the Rush Ends was injured too.

      And then conversely, how is our line looking? Wasnt Sandberg hurt? And then Brewer didnt play last week on OL. Are they both available? Didnt we used to get a 2 deep before game day?

      Reply
  104. 2

    Does anyone have a sense of WSU, with its scheme and transfer QB, and if they have a decent chance to beat Oregon tomorrow? Any predictions there?

    Reply
  105. 3
    1

    If JS can’t trust making extra points and FGs, need to use Jack and go for 2 after every TD. Let’s say we score 6 TDs and go 4-6 on 2 pt conversions vs 6 TDs and 5-6 on XP… that’s a 3 pt swing. Difference between 44-42 win vs 41-42 loss. Wouldn’t surprise me if JS is super aggressive vs USC.

    Reply
    • 1

      I’m less worried about extra points than I am about FGs. If we get into any 3rd and long situations outside their 20 yd line, we have to plan on going for it on 4th down. So we need a play to make that 4th down manageable. We can’t be taking a shot at the endzone in that situation.

      Reply
  106. 4
    1

    So far the only things I’ve been correct on…

    Andy Avalos as a head coach and Cal covering at ND.

    To keep up with that short lived tradition, Beavs will get demolished tomorrow. And lose every game after that.

    Oregon will demolish WSU.

    Not really. Cougs will beat the ducks. I know I posted about the duck fans berating the Mormons but I have a meme to share I will create tomorrow. And I want all of you Twitter folks to run with it.

    Reply
  107. 3
    1

    Game thread scheduled to go up a few hours before kickoff. New prediction due to problems in the kicking game, but I still have the Beavs 36-31.

    Reply
  115. 5

    I’m at Spartan Stadium at Michigan State watching my Gophers put an absolute beat down on Sparty! 31-0 in the 4th.
    This is the year of the Rodent!
    Beavs beat the Condoms and their fucking obnoxious fight song!
    Go Beavs!!

    Reply
    • 2

      I like Oregon to lose enough early in the season to stop the stupid college playoffs talk. Hopefully, a loss to Wazzu puts that to rest. I guess Quack fans everywhere should kiss the feet of Chip Kelly, he was the catalyst for the whole Oregon as a nationally relevant program focus from ESPN. They’re still getting mileage out of it a decade later.

      Reply
  131. 1
    2

    As I said, Oregon -6.5 is the smart pick, but WSU should be on upset alert. Game went pretty much exactly as I envisioned it. Hopefully the beav game does too.

    Reply

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