Nolan has now had several of these games where the entire team plays well enough to win a game, and he can’t just perform average and manage that victory. Last night of course, but Washington State comes to mind last year, and even Purdue, though that was a tough situation. To have your QB, the most important player on the team, disappear entirely and even cause loses once or twice per year just isn’t going to cut it if the goal is a special season.
D was obviously excellent. Best performance by an OSU D since…probably 2006, off the top of my head. But I wouldn’t expect that every game. Last night they were amped up and trying to make a statement. The way this works is the D probably won’t show up vs Utah and Nolan will be better.
I’ve been a fan of Nolan, but now I question him. I looked back at other QBs vs USC, and they have shut down everyone they played, so it is possible USC’s D is just that good. The thing is, when watching them they don’t look that good. Fast but nothing great…guys were open all over the field and plays were there to be had. USC’s numbers are probably elevated due to playing poor QBs who can’t take advantage of those opportunities.
I’d give him a half at Utah, and if he can’t drive the ball for points just rip the band-aid off and make the change. Can’t have the most important position on the field holding back a team that is otherwise ready to do bigger things. I don’t like the idea of breaking in a new QB at this point, either, but if the rest of the team is ready to win a Pac title and the QB is playing JC level ball, then you are forced into it.
We also need open tryouts for a kicker starting today. No way Hayes can be kicking moving forward.
Early prediction: Utah 24, Beavs 14.
I’d post ‘first,’ but that’s lame
First by a long shot
Congratulations
I recorded the game, I want to watch it, not sure my beer induced, crowd influenced perception watching live is as accurate as I want to believe it is.
Watch it and keep a tally for uncalled clock infractions and USC online takedowns.
I think Utah is overrated and Beavs can win this one. Nolan isn’t reliable but likely will bounce back.
OSU 31-Utah 27
Utah is beatable for sure. Main thing is not letting that qb get first downs with his feet. He’s sneaky athletic and seems so allusive specifically on 3rd and long situations
I thought Purdue was the game where Noyer played like garbage for a half and we dug a hole, then Nolan came in for the 2nd half and nearly brought us back?
I guess I just never considered that loss on Nolan, but there definitely have been a few.
For me it’s more why the F cant Lindgren and Smith recruit a top calibur QB?
We’ve only had average at best game managers since Smith arrived. That can’t be our ceiling.
It’s a good question. Everyone else in conference seems to find QBs pretty easily. And there are QBs in lesser conferences that are better than ours.
Nolan did play poorly but played solid to good in the other three games. I would argue that every QB has a bad game probably two in college each year. Williams is the best QB in the league and SC fans probably felt he played awful Saturday. Nix had a stinker at Georgia. Utah QB should have beat Florida. Right now I believe Smith and Lingren that Nolan gives us the best chance to win.
Would also help Nolan if drives weren’t stalled by his line being inconsistent, penalties, drops by receivers and missed kicks.
As for Hayes he was hurt and if he still is, he needs to sit until he is ready.
Nolan was actually pretty decent for the majority of the game. He just made a few catastrophically bad decisions. You would think it wouldn’t be hard to correct that.
Regarding Hayes….I have no stats to back this up but my general perception of college kickers is that 5% are legit good, 15% are decent, 30% are mediocre to bad, and 50% are “avert your eyes” bad. Gonna be really tough to get any production there at this point.
How is that possible? I went to a local field to kick fgs and was making 35 yarders easily as a middle age dude with zero practice. I don’t understand.
Recruit the soccer team or something.
I think when you add the elements of the helmet and pads, along with the pressure that goes along with having the rest of the team relying on you and only you in the moment (even though they are the ones killing themselves the rest of the game), its just a really difficult task to accomplish mentally. Kicker is the worst position to play in any sport imo.
Were you doing it with 11 angry dudes charging you and/or 30,000 people screaming/cheering?
The “crowd” went wild after he made them….
Seriously, its hard to believe its that hard to find someone. I mean they DO get to practice…
No, but I’d imagine that after training for that I could. There’s no way this should be so difficult that 20 year old dudes can’t perform the job. There should be excess kickers nationally.
my team had this problem in high school. The coach had a meeting with the soccer coach and we used one of their players as our kicker. Only practiced with us once a week, rest of the time he was doing his soccer thing. He was money. It shouldn’t be that hard to get a kicker
Bingo.
Exactly
All of you… lay off the kicker! Remember, Jordan Choukair? Anyone?
That’s right. I can be a whole lot worse. That kid tried to kick his shoes off once and missed.
Like Mick said:
“You can’t always get what you want
But if you try sometimes, well, you might find
You get what you need”
Did you have 11 guys on the other team trying to block your kicks? Did you have someone snap it back to the holder perfect every time? Which can throw off timing. Did you kick from the exact same spot on the field every time? or did you kick from different sides of the field?
It’s easy just to be out in a field with no one else out there trying to prevent you from making kicks. No crowd watching you kick, cheering or booing. You really have no basis what it’s like if you’ve never done it in an actual game, do you?
If you can really kick a ball why would you take that talent to football? I’d head straight to the soccer team where you’d get constant action and get to kick the ball 5 million times in a game. Football kickers couldn’t make it on the soccer team.
Don’t forget he is recovering from a groin injury and we have no reliable back up.
OT: Check out the twitter feed of Kwan’s grand slam off a 3-2 pitch.
Nolan needed to use his legs yesterday
I agree. There should have been some designed runs and some green lights to take off if needed. I think those runs are confidence boosters for him and likely help him relax in the passing game.
OT: in this slideshow there’s a pretty funny pic of the Miami Dolphin punter kicking the football directly into the ass of one of his teammates, in the “end zone” no less, resulting in a safety:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2022/09/25/jacksonville-jaguars-takeaways-los-angeles-chargers-nfl-week-3/8116925001/
He kicked ass!
I think its natural, with a little bit more distance from the USC game, to realize what could have been. I hope the coaches and the team handle that feeling well going into Utah.
How is Utah’s D this year? Pretty standard for them?
I saw where Utah moved a backup, dual threat QB to RB, and may keep him there. He may be a threat to throw on occasion. With Rising’s mobility, the two of them could be challenging to bottle up.
The polls are absolute crap. How many half-assed teams got “credit” for taking a top ranked team to the brink? There is no reason they should have lost ground in the polls after that game, and really should have moved up – but they did lose votes in both polls. Pathetic. On the plus side, they’re ranked 25 by Sagarin.
We really shouldn’t worry about the rankings imo. If the Beavs beat Utah, WSU and UW then the rankings will take care of themselves. If they don’t, then I guess they don’t deserve to be ranked. People focus on the top 25 but the only rankings that actually matter are the ones that determine the playoff. Outside of that, does it really matter if you are ranked #7, #24 or are unranked? Lets game out the rest of the season: Door #1, “The Special Season”: Beavs win out including a revenge win against USC in the Pac 12 title. If that happens the Beavs will be ranked top 5 no matter what. Door #2, solid year: Beat one of the 3 tough teams left (Utah, UW, Oregon) and take care of business against the rest. Ranked somewhere in the top 20 heading in to a decent bowl game. We should all be happy with this. Door #3: Lose at least 3 more times. Disappointing and I couldn’t care less if they are ranked #24 or are unranked.
The super late hot takes again,
A loss is a loss is a loss. There are no moral victories.
No disagreement that the loss is entirely on Nolan. Just didn’t rise up. He has shown he can rise up and play great but has valleys that he sinks into more often than his peak play. Lot of clean pockets to throw from.
Still waiting for the running game to take that next step. They are good but when are they going to be great? Fenwick is the only one to have a 100 yard game and he just barely got it. If they move into the next tier, they can help hide Nolan’s deficiencies.
WR/TE played well. I can only remember one drop.
OL played well again but Nolan did have heavy pressure on two of his INTs. Obviously the decision to throw the ball is on Nolan so blame is 99% on him.
I don’t recall ever saying the defense showed a lot of creativity. Bray came up with quite a scheme to slow down USC. Williams was pretty flustered through out the game. When the defense only gives up 17 points, they did what they needed to do to win the game. If Bray can get a repeat performance, it’s a huge step forward. And if Bray wants a bigger job, he’ll need a repeat performance.
Special teams kicking is a mess. Smith is going to have seriously consider going for it on 4th and long.
The team left a lot of IFs going forward. If Nolan can be a better game manager, if the running game can really get going, if the OL can keep up its play, if the defense can build off the USC game, if fg kicking can be better, if Smith is forced to take more chances.
I don’t see a change at QB anytime soon. If there is, I would hope that Gebbia comes in.
You can honestly say that the defense really only gave up 7 towards the final minutes of the game. Just imagine if Nolan didn’t throw 3 of those ints that gave USC a short field. They couldn’t string a full drive together all game until the end.
The defense played that great of a game against USC. To echo what Angry said, they certainly played their best game in nearly 20 years. That’s the kind of performance we saw on Saturday. Unreal.
Also, if I’m an opposing defense, I’m 100% selling out to stop the run and forcing Nolan to beat you. Sure you’re gambling on the passing game beating you, but which Nolan shows up? I’d like the odds of a bad Nolan showing up if you force him to beat you with his arm.
Pretty much spot on, Bill.
OL played well again but Nolan did have heavy pressure on two of his INTs.
JS mentioned 3 ints where Nolan faced pressure, but 2 or 3 it’s still his job to respond.
BTW, Marco Brewer was limited vs SC and will likely get more minutes vs Utah. Small chance this helps settle down Chance?…….not impossible to believe.
Utah 24-21 is my early prediction. I had the USC game as a W pre-season and Utah as an L. I still see this game as an L even with our new found defense. I don’t see Nolan bouncing back. Griffin needs to be the starter at RB.
Utah lost starting TE to knee injury, however backup came in a caught 4 for 66 yards and two TDs.
Wittingham said D was “outstanding.”
It was ASU, but a mice tuneup before hosting the Beavers:
https://www.deseret.com/2022/9/25/23363321/utah-utes-football-brant-kuithe-injury-against-arizona-state?_amp=true
I don’t see this team winning more than 7 games this year which is unfortunate as i believe as a team they are better than that. I think the defense has shown that it’s good and I think there’s talent in the skills positions offensively to win more than that. However, the qb position will hold this team back. I’m not in practice or film rooms so I don’t see what the coaches do and the consensus is that Nolan gives us the best chance to win. If so, that’s unfortunate and the reason why we won’t break this 6-7 win mark, potentially for a few more years unless something changes there.
Nolan isn’t good. He’s avg at best. 17/29 with 4 int and 0 TD. He started 7/9 then went 10/20 with 4 picks? 3 of those interceptions were directly on him. Throwing to triple coverage. Wasn’t like the wr tipped a ball that ended up being picked, or broke a route the wrong way, just an avg qb making below avg plays. He had poor mechanics all game. He was throwing from his back foot all night and even some of his completions were shaky, one swing pass to a wr was thrown a foot over the wr head and had to jump to catch it, throws the whole timing off. Not sure why some people are trying to brush off a really, really bad game by the qb. Yes he played very well for the first 3 game against lower tier teams…same can be said for last year. But when the rubber meets the road in games where the talent is better he’s been very avg. A few decent games last year but also had just as many bad games.
Here’s how bad this game was for him. We all agree he played well thru 3 games. Here are the season stats: 64/104. 7 td and 6 int. 1 rushing td. These aren’t great stats. You don’t want your qb turning the ball over at nearly the same rate that they account for scores. Do you see him getting better with Utah, Washington, WSU and Oregon left? Cal, Stanford, Colorado and likely ASU should be games where he can excel. I think we can grab a win vs the 4 tough teams but I don’t think we’ll run the table on those bottom 4 either…Colorado last year comes to mind. I don’t see anything in the body of work for Nolan to make me think things will turn around or he’ll figure it out the rest of the way. Let’s look at last season.
Last season: 204/318. 19 td and 10 int. 3 rushing td and 2 lost fumbles. Accounted for 22 td and 12 turnovers. 9 td and 2 int were thru first 4 games. Which means after USC (game 4) he went for 10 passing tds and 8 int. 3 rushing tds and 2 lost fumbles. Not good.
We need to ask what progress has he made? The deep ball definitely seems to be much improved but unfortunately, the decision making hasn’t and after 17(?) starts under his belt the ratio would actually be worse than last season. At this rate, he’d have 24 td and 18 turnovers in 12 games. If we think he’s a game manager, he needs to be much better at managing the game. Those types of qb’s don’t put up the gaudy passing stats but they also don’t turn the ball over.
I’m curious to know, what has he shown everyone that would suggest he’s going to elevate his game and this team to the next level? Based on what I’ve seen last year and so far this year, I don’t think it’s there and I sure do wish I am totally wrong on this.
He just needs to manage the game and not make horrible decisions and the Beavs will have an opportunity to beat everyone left on the schedule. Agree he isn’t very good but there’s no evidence anyone else down the depth chart can do better. It’s not like there is an unproven but super athletic risk/reward RPO guy we can turn to. Nolan can certainly play his way out of the job if he keeps making terrible decisions but there’s no other option that will move the chains better than he has.
Good points. Looking at the stats it is the INT’s that concern me.
If we’re going to have a gunslinger QB we might as well go with the most talented option (Gulbranson), or Smith/Lindgren need to adjust the passing gameplan to minimize the TO’s.
The Utah game is going to be a tough hill to climb. Lots of things need to go right and Utah won’t be forgetting losing last year.
Utah had a tough road loss but hasn’t been tested since. Wonder if complacency factors in.
The defense will need to travel if the Beavs have a chance. Vegas isn’t a believer this week with a double digit spread.
The early key to me in this game is the running game. If it gets going, it helps the passing game from taking bigger chances. Will still need Nolan to play an above average game to win. The defense isn’t going to repeat its performance but hopefully can still get enough stops to let the offense win the game.
It’s a lot of IFs again. Probably too many to overcome.
Regarding Utah, I had it as a win in pre-season. I’m probably over-reacting to Nolan’s giant dump in saying we’ll only score 14 points again. 24-21 is probably a better pick. Maybe 1 passing TD and 2 rushing TDs. I don’t see Nolan winning this game after his body language vs USC, though. He was in a dark mental place.
Nolan is who he is.
The coaching staff also are who they are.
They thought bringing in Noyer and wasting first team reps all of last spring and fall and then burning the first half of the Purdue game was the best move. Then they realized Nolan was better and Noyer never saw the field the rest of the year.
Now suddenly they can make the right call when it comes to Nolan vs the rest of the QBs on the roster? I’m skeptical at best.
Changing a QB near mid season is not advisable, especially on the road. Give Nolan another chance against Utah. if he has the same issues against Utah as he did against USC, put Gebbia or Gulbranson in and see if they can get a spark like Nolan did at Purdue. Defense seems to have found their pass rush, but do they have a repeat performance or will this be a let down game. Vegas seems to think this will be a let down game for Oregon State.
Yeah.
Riley/Chryst replaced their QB in the 5th game of the season with a walk on freshman.
Smith demonstrated an ability to move on from Tisebar when reasonably progress was not forthcoming.
If he’s going to do the same with Nolan, i suspect it would be after Utah. It will be a tough environment and likely a challenging Utah D – again, the kind if challenge you have to overcome if you want special seasons. If Nolan can’t make the correct decisions, particularly in the interior of the field (Smith’s point of emphasis), Smith may move on.
After Utah, WSU, UW, and UO loom as potentially significant challenges. He may decide Nolan hasn’t demonstrated enough learning to give the Beavers the best chance to win.
Think back to Tisebar’s poor performance and dismissal. Smith may be a nice guy, but his patience does have limits.
Letting a coach go versus pulling a QB are two different things. I would equate the Noyer and Nolan situation against Purdue. Sometimes pulling a player fires the player up and gets their adrenaline going, other times it backfires and they cave. A gamer will have a fire lit under their butt for being pulled in a game. Would have been nice to sit Nolan for a few plays/series to get his adrenaline pumping. May need to do this against Utah this weekend. Coach Smith and Lindgren need to get Gulbranson prepped to be the backup in case Nolan breaks down again.
A gamer will have a fire lit under their butt for being pulled in a game
Yup, it has been referred to as, “giving him a chance to observe the play from a different perspective”, whatever it’s called, it sometimes works. I’ve got no idea of how often; key is a gamer.
IMO, Smith didn’t move on from Tibs fast enough so I’m not 100% sure he will make the move even with another performance like that. Hope we don’t have to find out. Nolan must be great in practice or our qb room is really bad. Maybe it’s a little of both. Either way, right now it really does appear the team will only go as far as Nolan can go. We need him to play like he did vs Utah last year. He was truly a game Manger. 2 tds. No turnovers. 200ish some yards. I don’t think we’ll get out of Utah without a turnover but I think we’ll need to look to be run first again and I have a feeling that Utah will take that away and force Nolan to beat them with his arm and that’s not a bet I’d take.
Stepping away from the USC game and the emotions of that, Nolan deserves a half to re-prove himself. That’s really all he has earned, though. If the rest of your team is ready to win big games and your QB is not, then you have no choice but to make a move. If we have under 14 points at the half, that is under performance and Gulbranson is the move. OSU should score at least 28 points per game given their offense.
My Saturday takeaways from what I remember in person (have not watched any replays yet, too painful).
1. Smith cannot keep allowing Nolan to make unnecessary throws. A lot of people are fairly dunking on Nolan in this thread but from what I remember, he had several great throws with pressure in his face all night long. The interceptions were all head scratching and ugly though. On almost every one it seemed like there was a check down option or another open receiver that would’ve netted us positive yards but Nolan wanted a big chunk play for whatever reason. Definitely cost us the game as we were driving pretty easily on most those possessions.
2. If Jam Griffen got a starter’s load of reps we win this game by multiple scores even with the INTs. Can’t blame anyone else but the coaching staff on this one, gotta stick with what’s currently working if you want to upset a team like USC this year. It was mind boggling to watch him get one rep, rip a 10 yard run, then head directly to the sidelines to watch fennwick get tackled for 1-2 gains every play. It’s looking like we have more of a rb problem and not as much of an OL one like I previously thought. Griffen has vision and lateral movement that the others completely lack. Holes were there for all backs but only one seemed to find space and break tackles…
3. Wish they would’ve given Colletto some more carries. I know USC must’ve heavily game planned for him but seemed weird to not give the heart and soul of the team a couple more reps down the stretch. Also, going pass heavy while your quarterback is struggling was an interesting move by the coaching staff. Rotating between griffin and colletto would’ve had USC scrambling imo.
4. Why are penalties still an issue for this team? I though we had experience? And some of those false starts were just flat out stupid.
Overall, I thought it was a great performance by our team that should’ve resulted in a win. In addition to Nolan’s poor decision making, I’m really starting to question some of the coaching decisions on the offensive side of the ball, both personnel and play calling. Do we have other ‘Griffens’ on the team that should be getting more reps over older players, maybe at wide out? As much as we want to blame Nolan, why are we so pass happy while he’s not playing well and one of our backs is having a breakout performance? That’s on coaching
Bolden should probably get more looks at WR. I don’t remember him mishandling any balls. I wouldn’t mind seeing if Dunmore is a gamer. He had that nice pass in a clutch moment.
Anyone see if Julian played at all? I don’t remember seeing him at all.
Bolden should for sure get more reps. You reminded me of another great point: where is the fly sweep? I remember one to Gould (I think?) that was a 15+ yard gain and first down. Bolden and Gould both seem ideal for that and it would help spread the field and help our OL/rbs when we do run up the middle
Issue I’m seeing with the wr room is the guys that play the most are short. Easy for usc dbs to defend. Not sure we will see a secondary like that again this year. Tallest wr that gets a lot of reps is Harrison and he doesn’t play tall.
Agree on Bolden. Dude looks awesome, not only blazing fast but smooth, polished, great hands, and just seems to “get it.” Haven’t seen a mistake or a play where he looks like a freshman. I think he’ll be a way better player for us than his brother was.
Julian was dressed and went through warm ups but didn’t play. He has to be close to being back. What’s the injury he’s coming back from?
ACL or MCL i think.
@98 Beav, one of the penalties was on a true freshman, Veiling, who got tricked when USC did there frontline shuffle pre snap. I loved the way they used Colletto throwing a pass to him. USC wasn’t expecting that.
I don’t know why Overman wasn’t in the game more. I don’t know why Irish was in the game more. Plenty of small fast receivers. Nolan was great against Fresno State in pressure situations so hopefully he was just in his own head.
This was Nolan’s worst career game by far. Last year his issue really was the lack of a deep ball. Which then allowed defenses to play up and shut down the short & intermediate pass game. And we didn’t have strong WR talent to overcome that extra attention- they were serviceable but not exceptional. If you’re talking about judgment issues from last year, I think it was mostly desperation type plays when nothing was open and nothing had been open play after play. That was not the issue yesterday.
All that to say- he had a very bad game in a very bad spot and absolutely cost his team the W. But he’s played well this year and he seems to have significantly improved his major weakness from last year.
Definitely agree we should have run him much more than we did. Designed runs, RPO, and more ability to scramble. That’s a huge part of his game that we’re underutilizing. I think that would have taken pressure off the pass game and helped settle him down. We should have enough QB depth to not have to worry so much about protecting him.
There were some issues getting open on deep balls last year, but I think we had more reliable wr last year…primarily Bradford who did get a shot to make an NFL squad. There’s a lot that goes into #’s obviously because we can also say that the wr made a lot of catches that “bailed” Nolan out. Ultimately, he’s the making throws and the majority of those turnovers were on him and not tipped balls, etc. Some were, but not the majority. His glaring issue aside from deep throw accuracy has been ball security…the #’s certainly back that up. Props to him for making progress on the deep ball, that has clearly been something he’s worked on. I hope he can make the change but I don’t have a lot of confidence after this long as a starter that these ball security issues are still a big problem and at a pace this year to be worse than last.
I don’t think we had good WR play last year. I liked Bradford a lot and while he was reliable… he also wasn’t a special talent and he wasn’t very successful at getting open in the short and intermediate field with the extra defensive attention.
I totally disagree that WRs bailed Nolan out- I think for the most part it was completely the opposite. Beason and Musgrave had a TON of drops all year, and the rest of the crew joined in (there was a two game stretch last year – I think UW and WSU – where I counted 13 egregious drops between Beason and Musgrave alone). I remember a lot of catchable balls tipped into picks- want to say that Beason alone had 3-4 of those. Sticking with Beason so long was a coaching disaster. He should have been benched (or at least mostly benched) after 3 games or so. But he was a full time starter really all year, despite being an absolute mess and a disastrous mistake waiting to happen.
I will agree that Nolan had major fumble issues last year- he did a bad job protecting the football in that way. And maybe that’s why he’s not cleared to run a lot now. But in terms of picks…I don’t know. My impression is that a lot of them weren’t on him. And even the ones that were were more of desperation plays when nothing was open and he’s staring down yet another 3-and-out.
Alex
Crazy that Oregon moves UP after surrendering over 40 Again and narrowly beating (escaping) WSU.
Currently, USC #6, Utah #12, UO#13, UW # 15.
And OSU plays them all….
And USC moved up squeaking past OSU, while OSU moved down? It’s almost as if the voters don’t watch the games.
The game was also on PAC 12 network with a 9 30 PM eastern time start. Plus, like maybe 8 people nationally can get PAC 12 network lol
Weird, Hank Bachmeier is leaving/transferring from Boise?
Isnt he a senior already? Maybe he plans to sit the rest of the year and call it a redshirt year?
What the hell is going on at BSU? I guess they just like that running QB more?
Apparently Bachmeier looked like shit on Saturday.
He looked shit all year thus far including our game.
After long term, sustained success, they’re in a down cycle.
OSU’s over them isn’t going to look so good in the rear view mirror later this season.
Seems like a culture problem to me. Peterson/Harsin had them dialed in year after year. With Harsin moving on to Auburn (no surprise that’s not translating well) they basically started over, albeit with one of their own in Avalos. The offense (especially the offensive line) has been terrible under Plough, but it feels bigger than coaching/scheme. Dirk Koetter is an instant upgrade, maybe he favors the Freshman. Wonder where Vidlak fits into the mix.
Looks like their o coordinator got fired. Writing must be on the wall that he won’t be the starter moving forward.
Just read Bosie State hired Dirk Koetter as their OC.
Head coach in waiting…..
He played in 4 games this year, could still preserve a redshirt year. Then I think two years left to play due to the COVID year.
Smith and Lindgren were really high on him out of HS.
I know he’s looked terrible this year, but I wouldnt put it past our coaches to chase a transfer they know well, ala Noyer and Daniels.
He was really good last year and would at least provide some added competition. Maybe he has something personal or psychological going on and he just needs a fresh start.
I could see that happening. Beavs are probably going to add one more QB via the transfer portal this year. Lose Gebbia next year and adding Chiles. Would put the QBs at 5 scholarship guys with a transfer.
Nolan, Gulbranson, Throckmorton, Chiles and transfer guy.
Whatever happened to Noyer?
He was 1 and done last year. That’s why they went to Nolan in the first game of the season last year. I imagine if Gulbranson or Throckmorton take a step next year, they will become the 1 and 2 next season. I think Nolan has peaked in his inability to stay consistent which Coach Smith harps on, but seems to give a long leash to QB’s and RB’s for some reason.
Remember in Fall camp Angie Machado and Carter Bahns stated the defense was ahead of the offense? Is it possible the defense won’t click and catch lightning in a bottle this week or next? Defense I hope caught the lightning and not just a flash in the pan.
No big movement in the Vegas line so far. The big bettor last week got paid. I want to know who he’d put his money on for this week’s game.
I’m not sure what to make of Nolan. Last year he was an elite game manager who couldn’t really make big plays, but did a good job limiting mistakes. This year, he’s been making some really good throws into tight coverage and looking much more confident, then Saturday happened. He’s played well in plenty of clutch moments, but he just looked off against USC. He threw multiple REALLY wobbly passes and looked uncomfortable even in a clean pocket.
Given his track record, I’d definitely give him another shot, but it will be interesting to see how he bounces back from costing the team such a big game. I wonder if he gets less aggressive and goes back into “limit mistakes mode.”
Pretty crazy that we have another game this Saturday that will give us a shot at the top 25 with a win.
Positional comparison with Utah using PFF ratings:
QB- adv. OSU (just slightly)
RB- adv. Utah (though Griffin would be the top guy here if he had enough snaps)
WR/TE- even (Utah’s passing game relies heavily on the TE, but they don’t seem to have many great WR options)
OL- adv. OSU (just slightly)
DL- adv. Utah (OSU has better interior guys, but Utah has a big advantage on the edges)
LB- adv. Utah
DB- adv. OSU
Last year we won because our OL dominated Utah’s front 7. I just don’t see that happening this year with our group having taken a step back. It’s going to be on Nolan to step up and win one on the road. I just don’t see that happening given his track record and recent performance.
Utah 31-OSU 17
Phil Steele went undefeated in the pac-12 in Week 4 with a record 35-5
USC 38 OREGON STATE 31 – W
UCLA 38 Colorado 13 – W
Utah 34 Arizona State 14 – W
Oregon 31 Washington State 20 – W
California 24 Arizona 23 – W
Washington 38 Stanford 24 – W
Not hard having a good record when all he does is pick favorites.
Yeah, I’d prefer to see his record against the spread.
I can get that for you another day/night.
thanks
oob,
Phil Steele is 15-24 against the spread. First, you look at his predicted score and match it up to the spread to see if the loser covers or does not cover. Once you have whether the loser covers or doesn’t cover, you look at the actual score to see if his predicted cover or not cover matches the outcome. His accuracy is 62.5%. He is more accurate with straight up picks than he is at the spread.
For example:
OREGON STATE 27 BOISE STATE 26
OSU -1.5
Actual Score: 34-17 OSU
Boise State did not cover, but Phil Steele predicted they would; he gets an L for this spread pick.
Not too surprised by the outcome or how it happened. It seems most agreed before kickoff that officials would benefit USC. Non calls for offensive holding were huge plus every spot was 1/2 yard ahead for USC and 1/2 back for OSU. USC doesn’t score first TD without help from officials. I’d also say the Harrison hold was BS considering how the game was called. That said, Beavs easily could have overcome the officials. Also it was no surprise the game came down to TOs. I didn’t think we’d win this battle and we certainly didn’t. Surprised it was so close with the -4 difference. Coming in to this game, Nolan was one of my biggest concerns because he tends to sale the ball due to lack of spin. Not good with USCs speed and scheme. What surprised me was how well Nolan got us into the right play and how well he converted on 3rd and long/medium. Other than the INTs which was huge, he played well against a very fast secondary. I was also surprised with how well the D played especially collapsing the pocket. Again, the lack of holding calls was huge because USC just flat out held on every down because our line was getting there rushing 4. As the game went on it got worse because they learned they would not call it. Probably most surprising was the score. Nobody predicted such a low scoring game.
While I’m disappointed in the L, this team is waaaay better than I expected. I’m also going to predict Nolan has a good game vs Utes and finishes the year strong. Same with Oline. Still won’t be enough to win in Salt Lake but should be another great game. 26-22 Utes
Washington only -3.5? Washington State only -4.5? Both seem low.
Agree, WSU was a winner against the spread last week, I’m thinking it’ll happen again. Should be more in the 8 pt area….IMHO
Huskies had been -2.5 or less, I’d have guessed at least 6.
Beavs +10.5 now, I think they’ll cover. I’m a long time Bray Believer and also won’t be surprised to see Chance rebound. 3 pt margin either way, hate that we are so shakey at kicker.
UW defense will struggle with the dual threat QB. WSU D just struggles in general
Brings up another point. How in the world can the Beavs (or any team) not always have a dual threat QB these days? Very few can be a statue back there and pick apart defenses consistently. Also not many o-lines can maintain a clean pocket all the time for them. Just such an obvious advantage to make the defense have to think about an additional threat. You can also still make plays when the initial plan breaks down.
Clownzano with a piece up about Pac officiating.
FYI, pickem games for this week are up.
Still not much separation at the top, but we had several no shows this week, so could be only 4 or 5 are still playing by the end of the year
Tight End crKuithe out for the season for Utah. He was pretty important for their passing game. Could be a big advantage for Beavs…
Rodent take…
I just watched the game on DVR. What a HUGE missed opportunity! That would been heartbreaking to watch in person.
Bray…A+ A brilliant game plan that was executed almost to perfection. One of the best defensive performance I’ve ever seen from the Beavers.
Lindgren…B+ for three quarters we were in the game and could have had a nice lead if not for Nolan’s two boneheaded INT’s
Lindgren. D- 4th quarter. I would put some of the blame of Nolan’s two fourth-quarter interceptions on Lindgren playcalling. The team was built to play complementary football and he got too aggressive in the fourth quarter. The defense had been playing lights out, but they needed the O to play keep away from USC’s offense. Run first teams are built to close out games in the fourth by wearing out the other team and killing off the clock. The option pass was bad enough, but after the under throw, he went right back for a bomb kill shot. Same thing on the last drive. Plenty of time but got too greedy.
Lots of what ifs… but this should have been a season defining upset. Crap!
Lots of what ifs… but this should have been a season defining upset
Yeah, in the pre-season write up I said we needed, and I expected, to get more of those 50/50 plays. We didn’t. It implies inferior athletes or inferior coaching. In the case of the USC game, it was a bit of both. So we’re not yet ready to make the next jump. We’re still losing 50/50 plays. Utah probably has athletes that are closer to ours than USC, so we have another shot this week. Will be looking closely to see if we win those plays. It’s really key to becoming very good to elite.
“…we needed, and I expected, to get more of those 50/50 plays. ”
It was like 51/49 or 52/48. So there’s progress, but..
That USC 7-yard gain on 4th and 6 kind of made me think back to that punk UO QB (laptop thief) who trucked an OSU safety for a first down. Think it was an almost-Rose bowl CW.
As you said, you have to win those to get to the next level.
Not getting the fumble recovery on the goal line was the Luck O Da Beav’s moment. Refs also missed some egregious holding calls on SC’s O line. One should have resulted in a safety.
Did they really “miss” the call(s) or were they following league office direction(s)?
I honestly think Bray should have tested the refs a bit and dared them to throw a defensive holding penalty against the Beavs defense by allowing the guys to tug at the bottom back of the USC Jersey and them grab the jersey at the shoulder blades area to slow down the WR. If they called it against us, but not against USC, then we would know for a fact the refs favored USC in the game.
Maybe they did. They had tight coverage and the usc receivers had some bad drops. I’m not seeing posts showing jersey tugs but Wright is always handsy. I really doubt we didn’t have a PI all night.
I said pre game Bray would have to call the game of his life, and he did. That was SO great to watch.
If OSU can learn from it and keep their head’s up, there could be more great defense ahead. I suspect however the disappointment will be too difficult to overcome. At least at Utah.
That’s what I’m worried about.
I think we’re all worried this will be a let down game instead of a mad, angry, emotional team. Plus, Utah has revenge for last year on their minds.
Smiths comment about not being able to run the fly sweeps kind of irks me. They ran 1 with Gould for 15yards and a first down and never ran it again. Major blunder in my opinion. I just don’t understand how you could go into a game that is this important and not use everything in the playbook to win it.
They tried the double pass and that was not good. I was calling for the fly sweep and they did it soon after. I don’t understand why you don’t want to establish outside runs to help open up the middle. Even a play action with a designed qb run for 6 yards or something to loosen up the defense.
I agree with you on this. They were calling too many passes at the 10-20 yard level, instead of dinking and dunking a bit more in the 4th. They came out on that final drive and hit a short route on the outside first play for like 5-6 yards. They should have taken those pass plays over and over until USC creeps up, then you hit those 10-20 yarders in the middle of the field. USC had their whole secondary camped in that range making Chance try to force the issue with nothing there.
JHC…. Can Smith find a FG kicker?…
Colletto?
Why not, he does everything else.
I haven’t heard anyone say it yet, but we finally have a DC who figured out how to contain a mobile QB. This should give us reason for optimism moving forward.
Anyone else notice Williams could have run a lot more when the pocket collapsed but he didn’t and ended up with some bad incompletions? Maybe he is told only run when you have to but I thought we got bailed out a few times. Then when they needed the yards on fourth down he did what he had to do. Obviously still a big improvement by the defense.
Seems like a really good time to buy the stock market. Anyone buying here?
Yup
Not quite ready. Will continue to drop. October crash coming
Thoughts post USC..
There’s an obvious choice for RB1 (Jam) and let Fenwick and Martinez split time in RB2. Jam was doing a lot of damage and probably should’ve gotten more touches.
Not sure if it makes sense to bench Nolan. There were some drops that didn’t help the stat line either. I’ve always wanted a more run heavy approach, especially since the Beavers don’t have a history of recruiting top talent at that QB.
I actually expect the defense to continue to improve. If Coach Bray is the next Banker ; ) then he should have no problem keeping his side fired up. They should be proud of how they played and slowed down one of the top QBs in the nation!
Smith made a good point that he was pressured on 3 of his 4 picks, but also said that he needs to understand that sometimes taking a sack is better than throwing a pick. Also, there was a blatant hold on one of the picks. That being said, Smith said it was what “stood out” and I am guessing Nolan is on as thin of ice as we believe him to be. This is the point in the season when we find out what kind of QB Nolan is. He comes out and has a good game against Utah and he’s our guy. If he has a shaky performance, then I think we need to see what Gulbranson is capable of.
Utah so far giving up about 135 rush YPG, 163 pass YPG, and 16 PPG.
Their offense at 203 rush YPG, passing 233 YPG, and 32 PPG.
Going to be a good challenge on the road, where Beavs need to improve.
Saw where a few weeks back at a Utah home game a couple of female students wore body paint on their otherwise naked torsos and were required to put their shirts on. That IS a tough crowd…
Wittingham interview:
https://www.yardbarker.com/college_football/articles/what_whittingham_said_about_utahs_matchup_with_oregon_state/s1_16529_37928129
Highlights “IMO:”
When they’re +2 in TOs he thinks they have 90% chance of winning;
Their depth is the best its ever been since entering PAC;
DT play has been improving since game 1; and
Sees a lot of similarities between OSU and Utah’s offensive approach.
Not football but pretty interesting
https://katu.com/news/local/oregon-state-creation-gets-guinness-world-record-for-fastest-100-meters-by-bipedal-robot-cassie-osu-university-corvallis-track-running-agility-robotics
Thanks for posting.
Fun fact from the linked piece:
“Among the nation’s largest and most productive engineering programs, the college awards more bachelor’s degrees in computer science than any other institution in the United States. “
They should strap a helmet on Cassie and trot her out for the coin flip for a national TV game (if we ever get one).
Can she kick?
Steven Kwan is quietly gaining on Julio Rodriguez for AL rookie of the year. Helps that Julio is hurt right now and Kwan is super hot.
Adley still in the mix too.
Julio will and should win but good to see Kwan and Adley make a run. I’d guess Adley finish 2nd ahead of Kwan. I could even make an argument that he’s more deserving of Julio… probably already best catcher in the game
New interviews with Jam, Lindgren, and Tre’Shaun Harrison
https://youtu.be/5aUE-aszfjc
Most notables from each were:
Jam: He states we haven’t seen him 100% healthy yet from coming back from his hip flexor injury. He also says he feels more fresh when he gets the rest after a nice gain where the other back coming in is most likely better than him when he’s tired.
Lindgren: talked about how chance was down on himself, but trying to help Chamce get his head back in the game and prep for this week. Said a bunch of coach speak.
Harrison: touched on how Gebbia is a veteran vocal leader as well as Jaydon Grant and those guys went to Chance to remind him they win and lose as a team. He’s not the only one who made mistakes during the game. Also said he reminded Chance they still had opportunities late in the game and were in it all the way to the end.
I’m hoping they aren’t mopey and they’re buying into what Harrison said about Utah being more important than USC.
“I’m hoping they aren’t mopey and they’re buying into what Harrison said about Utah being more important than USC.”
I’m hoping that going out and hitting somebody and being hit puts the fight right back in them and they want to get after it. I mean, I hope they don’t wait until game time to get the mind set, but that has to wake them up and I hope they respond.
Surprised no one corrected me saying it was Tyjon Lindsey not Harrison who was interviewed.
I don’t post as much as I used to, mainly because angry doesn’t irritate me like he used to. Maybe I’m tired from working and youth coach at night or just more tolerant of fools in my late 30’s…
Couple things: bray is damn good and in a few more seasons we’ll have to pony up and pay him his worth. And I Don’t think it’s time to start calling for a new QB after a loss to USC. They are talented all over, likely gonna be 6-0 going into Utah. USC then Utah is a tough stretch and it’s not often we’d expect to go 2-0 in those 2 games back to back.
Just wait until baseball season. You’ll be barfing out of your cake hole nonstop.
My god you are a huge prick.
What? He does it every baseball season. Documenting facts doesn’t make someone a prick.
Sounds like Nuc is posting under a new account to me.
Says the guy that told everyone to buy Bitcoin and Gold. Like you said just documenting facts.
Yeah, and I told them to sell it for a massive profit, too. Documenting facts.
You also love to talk about how you bang sheep right before editing posts. Here we go in 3-2-1.
My god you are a huge prick.
Speaking of baseball, remember that challenge you laid out and then forgot about? Documenting facts
I guess there’s been enough talk to wonder who would replace Nolan if he struggles.
I would pick Gebbia. He’s a known commodity and has started. Gulbranson hasn’t played in a meaningful game yet. This isn’t a season to find out what you have in him. The team is trying to win and Gebbia would give them the best chance. Gulbranson got the call in the Montana St game to get experience. He’s the shiny new toy but Gebbia is the steady hand.
If the thought is that smart, efficient QB play is holding the team back from a potentially special season (which I’d call 9 wins and a chance at the PAC championship), maybe Gebbia makes sense. Hopefully he’s better at using throwing lanes by now. Also, didn’t he used to telegraph his throws pretty regularly and that contributed to passes getting batted down? Can’t remember if he patted the ball, but it seems like there was something.
Utah seems like a damn tough place to introduce Gulbranson but I think he can run better than Gebbia and it sounds like from people here he has the best arm.
maybe Gebbia makes sense
A couple things back up that thought:
1) he was elected captain at about the same time as it was announced/clear that he’d not be the starter.
2) Harrison’s comments above about Gebbia being a leader.
Seems the team may have more confidence in him than Gulbranson.
I suspect Chance will be OK vs Utah and make the question moot.
Too many batted balls on the line in the past, maybe he got taller?
I wonder how many drops are due to the ugly spiral Nolan throws. Gebbia’s is better but not by much. If they’re going to make a change, probably best to bypass these flawed guys and try gulbranson.
Could always go to gebbia if he’s in over his head.
“Spiral” is kind of a generous term. “Wobbles” might be better. You’d think receivers would get used to it in practice, but if not, there must be regular drops in practice.
OT: Did you guys see that Bachmeier entered the transfer portal today after his OC was fired and Green was named the new starter? Sounds like he could transfer and play immediately.
Kindof nuts that he can play immediately. I guess he graduated so he’d be a grad transfer, with 2 years remaining.
And OSU allows you to add courses up till Oct 2nd(oct 9th with department approval)
Just sayin…
Is he better than Nolan, though?
Career: 29 games played through this season: 61.6% completion rate, 41 TDs, 19 INTs, 57 sacks.
2021 was best season w/20 TDs and 8 INTS over 12 games.
Apparently lots of QB camps in HS, highest rated QB to ever sign with a MWC school. Led BSU to win over FSU on the road as a FR. Characterized as goofy/humorous, calm.
2 sacks per game seems like a lot.
No he can’t
“By transferring now, Bachmeier is eligible to credit the 2022 season as a redshirt year and will have two full years of eligibility remaining at his next stop; Bachmeier had not used his redshirt season, nor the NCAA-granted Covid exception.”
Interesting, the espn article must have it wrong. It says “Bachmeier has already graduated, which means he can enter the portal and will be eligible immediately wherever he goes.”
https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/34678118/boise-state-broncos-qb-hank-bachmeier-enter-transfer-portal
1. ESPN isn’t a reliable source. This isn’t the SEC.
2. I have NEVER seen or heard of a player transferring during the season and being eligible immediately.
Posted this above, but not sure if oobhas his notifications on or will scroll back up and look.
oob,
Phil Steele is 15-24 against the spread. First, you look at his predicted score and match it up to the spread to see if the loser covers or does not cover. Once you have whether the loser covers or doesn’t cover, you look at the actual score to see if his predicted cover or not cover matches the outcome. His accuracy is 62.5%. He is more accurate with straight up picks than he is at the spread.
For example:
OREGON STATE 27 BOISE STATE 26
OSU -1.5
Actual Score: 34-17 OSU
Boise State did not cover, but Phil Steele predicted they would; he gets an L for this spread pick.
Thanks for running this down. I guess 62.5% accuracy should be enough to come out ahead if betting.
His record is 62.8%, but he is 15 correct out of 39 games. So 15/39 for 38.5% hit rate. So don’t follow his spread picks.
Ask black Bandit for his picks. They’re 31/48 correct for 64.6%.
Don’t ask me. I’m just getting lucky.
CFN: Utah has forced 7 TOs in last 3 games and will get at least 2 from Beavers to win 34-17.
Speaking of TOs, Beavs got turnovers against BSU Hank Bachmeier and Montana State. They did not get Turnovers against Fresno State or USC. I love the defensive scheme we used and the way the defense played against USC, but the TOs seem to have come from teams who lack a passing attack, but tried to pass anyways. With that said, Cam Rising did throw an INT @Florida and 1 @ASU. Utah fumbled once against Southern Utah and against SDSU. Can the beavs manage to get a TO this game by way of a fumble or INT?
We should have had three TO’s against USC.
Losing the “should have/what if/50-50” plays…to me this is a sign of inferior athletes. But it’s also a mental state. Players have to be uber aware of those opportunities and have perfect focus. This should be trained into the players. Let them know they have to focus to win those 50/50 plays. Maybe even practice them and have a jugs throw balls to them right as they’re turning around, in stretched out positions, etc…things like that.
So many NFL teams are aggressively punching at the ball while a runner or receiver is wrapped up. I don’t see college teams doing that so much. Maybe they’re just taught to focus on making the tackle, or maybe it’s something that NCAA refs will call unsportsmanlike. Just seems like we could create more opportunities for TOs.
I saw a few of our guys do it against SC. Given the general level of quality of tackling in college, I’d rather our D just focus on wrapping up.
My prediction is we see more of Game Manager Chance and we lean on the run game hoping to get Jam going
I think you’re right; Jam and a bit of Colletto with Chance throwing a little mid range and less than 3 attempted bombs.
Hearing Musgrave out for season
Brutal.
I like Velling and Overman a lot, though. But they’re not Musgrave at this point in their careers.
He will be able to qualify for a medical redshirt if he decides to go that route. He’s an NFL prospect, but with a season ending injury early in the season, will he be ready for the Combine in time?
He should do a medical RS, get fully healthy, and add to his limited body of work.
Maybe the absence of Musgrave will necessitate more throws to Colletto (FB, HBack) to diversify the attack and distribute passes.
Not sure, I heard part of the reason he’s not playing this year is so he can stay healthy for the draft (when healed) so maybe he’ll be good to go by then?
That’s what I’m hearing too. He’s got a sprained knee. 6 weeks should be enough but he’s headed to the draft and will likely get combine invite.
Heard the US Treasury had problems selling bonds on Monday and had to raise yields by almost a full percentage point
That’s correct, and why I thought the bottom could be in. It makes sense. Who would buy a bond at 4%? FED has to sell to price/yield sensitive individuals, so QT is a lot harder than QE (price insensitive buyer).
Anyone that thinks the Fed has the stomach for a sustained bear market is delusional.
Presser with the D, better audio than usual:
https://247sports.com/college/oregon-state/Article/Oregon-State-Beavers-football-2022-Trent-Bray-Rejzohn-Wright-John-McCartan-preview-Utah-Utes-watch-video-194344427/
They seem to be in a positive frame of mind, that was good to see.
PAC breakup rumors swirling again in the media. I wonder if this is an attempt by ESPN or someone else to influence the media rights deal.
Yep, it is inevitable. Big 10 needs more west coast teams for market consolidation as well as travel reasons with USC-UCLA. UW, Oregon, Stanford and Cal are gone. Just no way they can turn down the money. In the words of Gordon Gekko…….”Greed is Good”
It just depends on how much the PAC can net in their upcoming deal, right? My understanding is the share the Big 10 could offer those PAC schools isn’t light years ahead of what they would get staying in the PAC.
That said, I wouldn’t bet the farm on a wildly successful negotiation by Liavkoff and co.
We’ll see but I don’t think we at the bottom yet. Several key markets have yet to correct plus I’m confident the Fed will continue to inflict pain for the next 6-12 months. That said, you are the self proclaimed financial expert:-)
we are not at “the bottom” yet. This will be worse than the 2008 crash. The reason being is people are moving their stock assets to more safer funds with a lot of the baby boomers close to retirement, if not at retirement age. They are moving their stocks into bonds, CD’s, money markets etc. There are other factors as well of course.
Which foreign countries are going to buy Treasury bonds now? We’ve already alienated the Saudi’s and Chinese. Do we expect the EU or African investors to step in?
For all of you on the “we want the Beavs to be under the radar forever” train, rejoice! I don’t see any upset alerts for Utah this week in CFB media. Apparently we were a threat to top #6 USC, but after a super close loss to them, we aren’t a threat to #13 Utah.
Pundits likely expect a mental and emotional letdown, plus on the road.
After taking a closer look at Utah, I’m more optimistic with our chances. I think Utes may have a difficult time scoring. It may come down to Nolan’s ability to protect the ball and if we can match up in the trenches. My hunch is Utes will take away the run and force Nolan to beat them. I think Lindgren puts together a solid game plan and Nolan rebounds with great game. Changing my prediction to Beavs win 35-27.
I like your optimism. I’m on the fence. I can’t get a read on Utah. They tend to start slow in the first quarter and build from there. If Beavs can keep Cam Rising and Utah’s run game in check in the first half, then we need to Offense to start producing in the run game. Whittingham even said on 1080 the fan today that the Beavs run game hasn’t clicked, yet. He knows it will and it started to go that way for Jam. Griffin had his family in the stands and he hadn’t seen them in 2-3 months. So he was really amped up for the game. I hope he found his energy and can build on what he did against USC. I’m hoping Martinez picks up the vision Griffin seems to have found and has a breakout game as well. I’m on the fence about Fenwick since he tends to go down at the first point of contact. could be he’s not running too upright and unbalanced as he hits the hole? I don’t mind the RB by committee as long as all 3 backs have vision of the holes.
Rising is a strange QB. Looking at him and even watching him play you wouldn’t think he’s a 4-star QB, but he is, and once you watch him play you see why. One of the stranger QBs I’ve seen.
Agree 100%. He isn’t a player that is fun to watch IMO but he’s effective. The loss of their TE could have a significant impact because Rising love to hit the intermediate throws especially in the middle of the field. Lot’s of short check downs and intermediate throws to WR along the sidelines. I actually think our DBs match up well against the Utes passing game. Concern is stopping the run but I think we may be able to rush 5 if needed and get away with it.
I’m less concerned about stopping the run after the USC game. USC has a good OL and RB’s, possibly better than Utah’s, and we shut their running game down.
Fatigue might be a factor at altitude, and may explain why Utah seems to play better in the second half. They can wear you down running the ball in the first half, then take advantage of the fact that they’re more used to the altitude in the second half.
“Attitude over Altitude!”
Or some similar battle cry…
Its funny, the “fatigue” issue. V. USC, both Ds were on the field about 30 minutes of the time.
30 total minutes of activity;
Over about 3.5 hours;
Broken up by huddles, timeouts, halftime;
Each activity “burst” probably about 4-8 seconds on average, a long burst of 10-12 seconds.
Obviously, there’s hitting and pain to complicate things.
But that activity pattern should inform a training and phycology regime if it does not.
A 19 or 20 year old shouldn’t get THAT tired with that activity pattern over 3.5 hours.
They have a training table of healthy food available before game, and hydration before/during/after.
Playing Fenwick too much is to Utah’s advantage. He’s not shifty enough for a disciplined, well tackling team that makes contact early.
More Jam, more Martinez (ball security!) with some Colleto of course….
I would love for Jam to separate himself in this game from the other two. As well as have Martinez separate himself from Fenwick. I see Fenwick as straight ahead designed hole runner(meaning 36 Counter, 32 trap, 31 trap, 33 blast, 34 blast, etc). He’s not the type of back that has the vision to see a hole open before it even opens up. Quizz had amazing zone run vision. Not sure reps will fix the vision issues.
Fenwick should be 3rd and the coaches put him 1st. That is a big mistake.
I’m not sure if Jam or Martinez is the #1 back. Need to see more of each.
In terms of big play ability, I agree. But Fenwick is the biggest and does a good job of falling forward to get an extra 1-2 yards. He’s more of a high floor, low ceiling kind of runner, where the other two are higher risk, higher reward because they try to bounce or spin off contact instead of pushing through it.
I think it actually depends on which Chance you have at QB. If it’s Gunslinger Chance, you can settle for the more conservative choice in Fenwick because you’ll get more big plays out of the passing game. If it’s Game Manager Chance, you want someone that can hit home runs like Baylor and JJ could (i.e. Jam and Martinez).
last year Devaughn Vele, Dalton Kincaid, Jaylen Dixon, and Solomon Ernis all averaged 15 yards per catch or more versus the Beavs last year? Micah Bernard averaged 7.7 yards per catch with 1 TD. Cam Rising had a better run average their running back at 7.3 yards per carry. Have to bottle up Rising and their running back. This game will be a challenge, but a different challenge than we’ve had all season. How do we handle coming off a loss on the road. This is a moment to grow and mature as a team.
Gotta wonder if Ashley has a vote in the Campbell Trophy selection process:
https://osubeavers.com/news/2022/9/29/football-jack-colletto-named-semifinalist-for-campbell-trophy
Great article on the Griffin family… please pass the Jam:
https://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/2022/09/fathers-plan-pays-off-as-oregon-states-jam-griffin-one-of-four-sons-to-land-a-college-football-scholarship.html
Has coach Ruick talked to Griffin’s sister? She any good at Basketball?
He has 2 brothers that play DT. Maybe he can convince them to come out and play with him? I’m not holding my breath but that would be huge.
I don’t know if anybody has the same feeling on Colletto as I do but I think we should stop pretending that he’s a world beater at LB and irreplaceable on Special Teams. Rather, I think his football intelligence would be better suited being a true Swiss army player on offense where he’s catching (as FB or what the hell, like a TE almost) running, blocking for Jam, and even throwing (maybe even to Nolan)
Not trying to knock him as a defender or special teams expert, I just think we get the most output from him offensively.
Also, I think our WR coach deserves some scrutiny this year as his WR’s are dropping catches like crazy. It can’t be good for Nolan’s confidence when the guys with the best hands look like DB’s out there.
I tend to be wrong about most things in football though so what do I know?
Might not be too far off on wr coach. We’ve had 2 sure handed wr in Hodgins and Bradford. Both from prior staff if I’m not mistaken. Otherwise they’ve brought in higher star guys via xfer portal and there’s definitely been issues with catching the ball by a lot of them. Last year too. Seem to be good blocking wr though so there’s that but there’s got to be improvements made on the fundamental aspect of being a wr.
Nobody has even implied he’s a “world beater at LB. ” he’s not even the best LB on the team, he’s just a smart one whose played QB and RB so that helps inform his reads.
But i agree. At this point, he should be almost an emergency LB, with a focus on Wildcat QB, FB, HB, “Finishing Reser” engineer, MILF escort, and FG kicker. But’s all…
Agree on defense, but he’s pretty decent there, and he’s very good on ST.
Offense and ST is where he should be used most, and I think he is…I don’t remember seeing him a ton at LB, but he did make some long-gain saving tackles there.
Ya I don’t think he’s taken too many snaps on D but he seems to make the most of them. I saw him get some good pressure a few times.
Fumble recovery this season too.
While he’s good there, I think there’s enough depth to limit his time, reduce his injury risk, and make him more available for the offense. It might need him more with Musgrave out several weeks.
Except when he called for a fair catch when Overman would have gained 10 ish yards on the kick return.
He thinks MILFs are a fair catch as well…
“Auburn football players are averaging $7400 per month in NIL payments.”
Takes the sting off of losing.
That might be part of Harsin’s challenge: motivating and disciplining overpaid employees is always tough, particularly when someone else is paying them.
Makes me more proud of Beavers defensive effort against USC….
It’ll be interesting to see how many of these players can’t afford their tax bill next April.
Leave that to wealthy alums….
Taxes?? this is America. NIL isn’t personal income, it is Business Revenue and that opens a lot of loop holes.
Man, beavs missing out on Jayden Ott is unfortunate. Griffin and Martinez could be great but Ott has been really good so far as a true freshman.
Was going to mention him the other day. Had almost 300 yds last weekend. Pretty nuts, especially for a true freshman.
And he wasnt playing against a Tim Tibesar defense
He’s an interesting case because it seems like the guys we normally miss out on despite being in their top 3, etc. don’t end up being all that great.
WEEK 5 PHIL STEELE REPORT
The visitor has won 4 of the last 7 SU & is 5-2 ATS, but lost last year as Oregon State snapped a 5 game series losing streak at home. Last time here (‘20) the Beavers (+11’) trailed 16-10 at halftime and used two 4Q TD’s to cover but could not get the win. Utah is 11-12-1 in series. The Utes have won 5 of the last 6 SU vs the Beavers, but are 2-4 ATS. Last year Utah scored TD’s on their first 2 possessions to lead 14-0 and despite a 74/9 drive being stopped on downs at the 1, the Utes got a TD with :46 left to lead 24-14 at halftime. Oregon State opened the 3Q with a 75/10 TD drive, then blocked a punt for a TD for lead 28-24. Down 35-31, Utah missed a 52 yd FG with 13:26 left and Oregon State drove 66/7 for a TD. Utah drove 73/10 before being stopped on downs at the 2 with 6:22 left, then drove 50/5 for a 33 yd FG with 2:39 left in Oregon State’s 42-34 win. Utah lost to
Florida in the opener but has won their last 3 SU and ATS by a 142-27 margin. They did lose TE Brant Kuithe for the season last week and he was one of their top weapons. Oregon State is a legitimate contender in the Pac 12 and is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS this year. Last week at home, USC was stopped on downs at the 42 and missed a 35 yd FG in the 1Q. Oregon State drove 80/10 for a TD, then was intercepted at the USC 34. USC drove 41/7 for a 42 yd FG to trail 7-3 at halftime. USC drove 26/7 for a TD (after int), OSU drove 46/12 and missed a 46 yd FG. USC punted from their 1, and Oregon State drove 22/2 for a TD to take the lead 14-10 with 4:41 remaining. USC drove 84/11 for a TD with 1:07 left and Oregon State was intercepted for the 4th time on their last drive, giving USC a 17-14 win. Oregon State is 10-2 ATS as an AD. Utah is 18-8 ATS as a HF the last 6 years and is playing with legitimate revenge. Oregon State has played the tougher schedule (#25 vs #103) and has the Special Teams edge (#21 vs #99). Tough to go vs either of these “play on” teams so I’ll call for this one right near the line.
UTAH 34 OREGON STATE 24
POSITION BY POSITION EDGES
WHEN OREGON STATE HAS THE BALL:
Oregon State QB/WR’s vs Utah DB’s: ORST +0.03
Oregon State RB’s vs Utah LB’s: UTAH +0.61
Oregon State OL vs Utah DL: UTAH +0.17
WHEN UTAH HAS THE BALL
Utah QB/WR’s vs Oregon State DB’s: ORST +0.31
Utah RB’s vs Oregon State LB’s: UTAH +0.02
Utah OL vs Oregon State DL: UTAH +1.12
MISCELLANEOUS
Special Teams: ORST +2.68
Kicking: UTAH +1.40
Coaching Staff: UTAH +1.40
POSITIONAL EDGE AWARDED TO: UTAH +1.69
PROJECTED BOX SCORE (ORST-UTAH)
Projected Rushing: 115-211
Projected Passing: 193-236
Projected Yardage Total: 308-447
Projected Final Score: 24-36
Experience Rankings: 22-62
Team Schedule Strength: 25-103
Las Vegas Line: Utah by 10
Las Vegas Total: 54.5 Points
+/- Ratings: Utah by 13.8
Game Grade: Utah by 11.1
Computer Yards: Utah 447-308
Computer Points: Utah 36-24
Spreadsheet Prediction: Utah by 13.5
OTHER PAC-12 PREDICTIONS
Washington 34 UCLA 28
California 24 Washington State 23
Arizona 39 Colorado 21
USC 44 Arizona State 24
Oregon 44 Stanford 24
Does he ever go against large favorites?
no, he will always look at the favorite because he is stating if these teams both play perfect, this will be the outcome. There is no accounting for penalties for, penalties against, or TO margin. I’ve already pointed out above he is 15 correct out of 48 picks in the Pac-12 this season Against The Spread. So he’s terrible at predicting who will cover and who won’t cover. His straight up picks or Money Line picks are slightly better, but not by much. Although this week he has Oregon State covering the +10.5. So he basically is stating what Vegas uses to set the spread. Oregon is a -17 against Stanford and he has Oregon Winning by 20. He doesn’t think Stanford will cover because they will settle for a FG instead of being able to get a TD.
For me this highlights that Utah’s SOS is garbage and they are unproven, having lost their only real test. Looks like a toss up in results when compared to OSU.
Utah might actually be an overrated overhyped team this year. They have only had 1 true test like you said and that’s a middle of the road SEC team on the road. I’m not saying they can’t give us a game like we had at Fresno State, but the matchup seems to indicate something weird will happen tomorrow. I can’t put my finger on it, but something funky and weird will happen tomorrow during the game.
I’ll settle for funky, weird and wonderful.
This feels a lot like the USC game, only on the road against a team not loaded with blue chip recruits and transfers. In every quantitative measure I can find, the teams look even. After last week, this is THE game that will determine whether we’re a top team in the conference or not.
Lose and we enter the spiral of mediocrity. Win and we immediately enter the top 25 and the PAC championship game conversation.
I’d say the determining factor could come down to quarterback play more than anything else.
If Nolan is above average togreat like Fresno St, we win, no matter how well Rising plays.
If Rising is exceptional and Nolan matches him, I think we win.
If both are below average, we lose because Nolan’s floor can be disastrous.
I’ll say this game is less of a chess match field position and go with the bigger numbers again. Utah can’t slow down Beav s, Beavs can slow down Utes.
Beav 38- Utes 24
28-27 Beavs. The Utes are not going to be able to bully the Beavs anymore, as we witnessed last year. We got our big boy pants on!
So big the pants are three-legged!
Comment of the thread!
Gotta bring back the COTT tomorrow. Forgot about it.
I’ll need to DVR the game, I just assumed we were playing at night.
Heads up, the first Pickem game is UW/UCLA tonight, so get your picks in if you havent
FYI, Vidlak is QB for Boise State tonight. Broncos getting shut out, Vidlak is 9-12 for 86 yards. A fumble too, I think.
Hope he brings them back to victory!
Man, they didn’t have much patience with Green. Or did he get hurt?
Apparently mixing it up.
Vidlak started, it appears.
Had this as a loss before the season started. Nothing I’ve seen changes that nor will it be close.
34-10 Utes
Whoa, buddy! You seen Bray’s D?
29-24 Beavs
This isn’t a home game. It’s also an early game at 4600′ elevation. Utah rolls
I’m sure Tango Whiskey can share with us how credible your predictions are but he’s probably celebrating somewhere over the M’s making the playoffs.
He was correct. If my team sucked that bad I’d probably be celebrating too.
Refresh my memory. Did they make the playoffs last year as well when he said they would?
It’s kind of funny. The Mariners may finish with a worse record than last year. And they still made the playoffs. If MLB hadn’t added a team to the playoffs in each league they’d be fighting for their playoff lives right now and tied for the final playoff spot.
But thems the rules now and they did what they needed to do to get in.
Not an M’s fan here. Just giving you a hard time for riding him so hard about his early season predictions.
Broncos up 21-13 now? Go Sam?
Looks like mostly the run game working with Vidlak mixing in some shortish passes.
Burmeister 2-8 for 33 yards and an int. Oregon knows how to find the good ones.
One area of weakness that Whittingham commented on was Utah’s return coverage. They gave up two long returns last game.
This is one of those x factors that the Beavs need to go their way. Beavs have good returners so it’ll be something to watch. Will Utah kick to the Beavs or do high pop ups to get fair catches?
Do they typically have bad special teams? Last year we blocked two of their punts. I think they had an injured long snapper or something though.
FWIW, Steele says, “Special Teams: ORST +2.68”
He had us way ahead in that category last week IIRC
Whittingham’s teams are usually known for solid special teams play.
UCLA playing like they have something to prove.
Penix messin’ up nearly everyone in the CBS pick ’em, nightmare similar to Chance last week.
UW thinking with their Penix instead of their Head Coach in the first half
40-16 UCLA. Have to wonder if DeBoer will have Penix come out and give him a towel so he can be fresh next week.
Did you see the extension by Penix on that last run? Husky’s score and get 2 pt conversion.
UW within 8 with 4 minutes left. UCLA ball
He definitely has a rifle NB, but it will not be enough tonight!
Came up shor. UW defense is pretty terrible but their offense can keep them in games.
Pac has a bunch of pretty good but not great teams this year. Will be interesting to see how things shake out. Beavs need tomorrow to go their way if they want any part of an upper tier finish in the Pac. I just dont see it, unfortunately.
Anybody else find it odd they flew in so late today considering it’s a morning game?
Was it so their bodies wouldnt have time acclimate to the altitude?