The Beavers, as a whole, have officially become unpredictable. It's ironic, since fans complain that their offensive and defensive units suffer the curse of predictability. The short of it goes like this: yes, everyone knows bomb on 1st down; Quizz dive left for 3 on 2nd, Quizz dive right for 2 on 3rd, then a punt; and every offense knows they'll see a base 4-3 with slow linebackers and one weak CB. But nobody has any F*$#*#ing idea what the outcome will be.
Counter intuitive stuff, right?
These eyes see the Beavers execute about the same (i.e. averagely) every game. So deduction leads me to believe that, in games with relatively equal talent, a win or loss is determined by how the opponent executes. If they do it well, the Beavers lose. Poorly, and the Beavs win.
Luckily Washington State suffers from poor execution and slightly less talent, so this game should be a win. A few months back, who would have thought we'd have to question it, though? In a season marked by polarizing opinions within the fan base, this is the one contest we unanimously penciled in the W column. It is supposed to be our shining moment of solidarity.
Do you still feel confident in victory?
I do, but instead of stat-padding-blowout, I see a modest two touchdown victory. And dare I say, I'm actually slightly nervous about…*gulp*…Washington State.
28-14, Beavs.
The officiating has really been bad this year. Seems like the home teams have been getting a ton of call. Lousville and Cal stand out as games we got a ton of calls in. UW and UCLA stand out as games were we were hosed a couple of times. I think that could play a role.
As far as the games go it really comes down to how well WSU executes and how much fight they have left. I could see this game being close and even a WSU win if they fight for it. Although WSU is a crummy road team and OSU a good home team so you got to think we will win it even if WSU shows up but anymore with these guys I don’t know.
In a perfect world the Beavs get a good lead, try a few new things, then let the back-ups play the 4th… yeah this world is far from perfect. At least I am not a Cubs fan!
Also, I really want to see a package with McAndrews in at TE. I think with the problems Camp has we could really use a big blocker at TE here and there. I mean consider a power set with McAndrews at TE and Darkins in at FB with 2 WR’s. Sure that allows the defense to stack 8 or 9 in the box but it also gives us a solid couple of extra blockers and some potential 1-on-1’s on the outside with the WR’s. Plus with Katz it might help to have less reads and a smaller progression. I dunno, I am no expert but I think it is worth a try to see how it works. Stanford beat Oregon last year with their Jumbo package, I think it would be easy enough to install.
Beavs will win in a blow-out. They were embarrassed last week and will have a chip on their shoulder for Saturday’s game. I am expecting a similar outcome as the Cal game.
A chip on their shoulder, really??
I sure hope you are correct, but will only believe it when I see it. If the Beavs come to play 60 minutes and work to get some frustration (if its there) out then a blowout is possible.
Its even possible that some new wrinkles could be tried in prep for upcoming games; of course its possible too that the unemployment stats could go to 5% in a week……at this point I might be more inclined to bet on the later!
I will be disappointed if we don’t score atleast 42 points. I shouldn’t have to apoligize for that and it would be nice if the Beavers could deliver a solid point total and dominate an inferior opponent. I would like to see 42-14 , 42-13 or 42-10.
I have read on this site that maybe 6-6 would not be beneficial in the long run. So I am hoping the wheels come off this year and “motivate” positive change. I have a feeling WSU might finally get a PAC 10 W. They held Oregon to their lowest point total, do we think OSU can keep Oregon to 43 points? I keep making the point that a couple weeks ago Riley said in Oregonian that “we won’t have success as last few years and hope team can deal with it”. So far this year we have lost to two inferior teams. Would we see more change at 4 – 8 or 6 – 6. I just hope we see major improvement before Quizz & Quan are gone.
Kind of off topic, but we just offered this kid Jaswha James:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Z9EvKiv-So
From that video, it looks like he has pretty good speed and strength, and is relentless getting to whoever has the ball. He could be a dynamite pass rushing DE if he added another 15-20 lbs. We are also his only offer. We also offered his teammate Patrick Onwuasor who has some impressive offers, but not sure if we’re going to get him.
He actually committed.
0 stars, no offers…but he does look pretty good on film.
watch the play at 1:00
kid was always destined to be a beaver, whiffing on an easy sack like that!
Dude, the tape is pretty impressive; he just needs to bulk up a bit more.
What part of “he looks pretty good on film” makes you think I said he wasn’t impressive?
Anyway, I mostly like what I saw, but what I dislike about this prospect is what I dislike about all Beaver prospects–none of them are fluid athletes. He’s jerky…meaning, he runs as if one leg is longer than the other. It’s common to every defensive guy the Beavs recruit.
What would be better is if the Beavers recruit guys that are actually ranked and have at least 4 stars by their name.
This ZERO star, unheard-of recruit business is getting old, and the consequences of which show up in our record and lack of top-tier bowl games.
I think Riley OK’s offers to these type of recruits because they are guaranteed to accept and it makes it look like kids want to come here.
He’ll probably be a high 2-star or low 3-star when he does get a rating. Either way, he isn’t fluid and suffers from wobbly gait syndrome. It’s pretty amazing how wobbly gait syndrome coincides with offer sheets. You never see guys on USC or UCLA who suffer from it.
I was talking to cloudy, he is making James sound like he’s Keith Pankey…
What is encouraging about him is he seems like a pretty sure tackler who gets his hands on guys. The Beavers coaching staff will cure him of that though; he ride the pine for 3 years, in practice he’ll be taught to run to the ball, but he won’t get to tackle, and when he gets in games he’ll flail around like Kieth Pankey – it LOOKS dramatic, but it isn’t effective.
While I’m aware this sounds overly cynical, I’m basing this on OSU”s defensive players remarks about their spring and fall camps – they said they don’t tackle enough. They are taught to run to the ball, but don’t get to finish. This is consistent with what happens on game days with guys like Miller quickly taking the path to least resistance (the qb and the ball are not there!) or mulitple linebackers taking bad angles and flailing with missed arm tackles.
On WSU inserting some read-option in preparation for OSU – if that doesn’t send a signal to Riley and Banker, they’re never going to evolve. “Gosh, Mark, do you think people perceive the read-option is a weakness for us? That isn’t a neat deal is it? Maybe we should walk-through some read option plays with the guys?!?”
They don’t tackle because there’s no depth or confidence in the 2nd tier players. It’s the same reason Quizz isn’t tackled. Sure, it would suck if he got hurt, but if McCants isn’t good enough to play he should not be on scholarship nor should he had been offered in the first place. You have to have faith in guys you sign or else don’t sign them.
Another test for Banker?
From the Trib: “…The Cougars are using more read-option plays than they did in Wulff’s first two seasons. Against Cal, quarterback Jeff Tuel carried 10 times for 73 yards….”
http://www.portlandtribune.com/sports/story.php?story_id=128935073753920700
If Tuel comes out looking like TCU’s Dalton, it’s going to make me hope for more osses just to force DeCarolis’s hand on coaching changes.
The Cougs would be fools not to install a little read option for the Beavs. Good lord, I hope Tuel doesn’t run for 100 yards. I am getting tired of Riley’s “why are we 3 TD favorites” crap also. They are 21 pt favorites because they still should beat this team by that many. If if they don’t, have a little confidence in your team. The Cougars are not that much better yet. They still are winless in a P-10 down year.
Have you guys seen Buker’s piece on Pankey? It is horrible! I went off on him in the comment section. That is officially the worst article I’ve ever read.
After all we’ve been through this season, I still have hope for a Beaver’s win this Civil War!
And it all comes down to what Riley knows we’re missing…. Identity.
When teams are constructing an identity for themselves, there’s a commonly used acronym for how they get there. FSN.
It stands for:
Forming-Storming-Norming
What it means is that teams must go through each of these phases before they can solidify an identity. Now most good teams you see will compile all of these components in the pre-season and strengthen whatever motto or motivational creed they create to carry them on during the season. Unfortunately Mike Riley doesn’t buy into commonly understood psychological practices.
From the start, I believe all of our walk-ons delay the “Forming” process as well as our inability to name starters until 3 games into the season. This makes it hard on players to create stability and understand their role on the team.
The “Storming” process allows players to work out any squabbles or differences they may have about the work they’re trying to execute (o-line) and goals they’ve set for themselves. This is something that should be established as early in the process as possible. (Preferably pre-season games or before). As we can see, this appears to be the stage we’re currently in with only 4 (maybe 5) games remaining.
Once those stages have been mastered, players can move on to a “Norming” phase that sees the team getting into a rhythm and constructing a stable and consistent level of game play. They have now reached a stage where they are (mostly) comfortable and can start building confidence and self-efficacy in their assigned tasks.
For whatever reason, Riley has done a horrible job this season creating identity for his team. As a coach, it is HIS job to assure that the team comes together through this process. All of the BS that he spews stating that the team has yet to figure themselves out because they can’t piggy back off of prior teams is a cop-out to the fact that he is unable to structure such mental components. (You wouldn’t let your child avoid bathing just cuz they didn’t like it would you? If so, why would you pass blame on them when they smelled bad at school?!) Luckily for us though, the CW goes far beyond Mike Riley.
That is why I hold faith in my initial statement. The one thing Riley has refused to give his team this season is already laid out with the CW. “Beavers Are Giant Killers!” We’ll even have Pro-Combat jersey’s this season to remind us of that. Maybe even College Gameday.
My point is that while some of our players are still second-rate, it has been mostly the psychological intangibles that have earned us the record we have. (James being forced to drive to UW and missing the UCLA game are HUGE leadership factors that have to been good for 7 points distributed somewhere throughout those games).
Based on my belief that Riley scheduled such difficult Non-Con games to attempt to “force” an identity out of his team where he was unable to create one makes me think that we should have gone all out and worn out new jerseys against TCU to start the season with the proper mentality. Boise St. at the very least! But now, like everything in life, we see the season coming around full circle and our biggest game will be our last.
No matter what happens over the next 3 games, we will come ready to play during potentially the biggest Civil War we’ve seen yet. And it wont be because of what we have to gain, but the fear of what we have to lose.
I don’t disagree, nor doubt they’ll come ready to play the Civil War. The problem is they’ll run out of gas quickly; they don’t have the conditioning or depth to maintain a full game at that pace. It will be a bad loss after a tight first quarter/half.
Agreed. For the reasons you state here, Riley and staff are generally out-coached before the season even starts.
In the Oregonian last week, Riley was publicly asking who the OSU beavers were as a football team. I think that’s a total absence of leadership and confidence, and it filters down to the team. The Beavers current identity:
Poor blockers;
Poor tacklers; and
Rich in offensive skill players.
Given that blocking and tackling are fundamental skills necessary to compete and win, actually setting some goals there might be productive. Riley has praised TCU and BSU for their tackling ability, why not challenge his players to be the surest tacklers in the Pac-10 for example, and measure that performance to motivate the players and achieve in-season progress?
OSU’s going to get another beat down in the CW – it won’t be competitive like last year. I’m almost hoping for it just to force change.
I think it’s a great idea to make a goal like “surest tacklers in the Pac-10”
That kind of thing builds upon itself.
I think this idea has merit. But how to implement it? Poll players like they do the Maxwell Award? Ask coaches? Spend all your time reviewing tape?
I like the idea of polling offensive players for this info. I think it would be fun to break down the votes and award someone a worthy title. My vote goes to Mason Foster at UW right now.
If anyone has a better player in mind, let ‘er rip.
I think you set a standard with form tackling, and develop a “grading” point system from there, from “form tackle” on down to “Missed Tackle (negative point) or late hits/ penalties that result in lost opportunities (think of whathisnuts late hit against USC ‘s qb last year that resulted in a lost INT). ” You might relate it to the total number of offensive plays run by the opposing te. You review the tackling standard and examples (using film, preferably of former beavers, but TCU or others if necessary) and the system with your defenders.
Then when you review film after a game, maybe part of it is having defensive players actually self-grade and turn that in. Then you sum it up and track the collective progress/points of the TEAM. And Implicitly, and explicitly, as a player you know your team emphasizes good technique.
I don’t think it’s necessary to have the Pac-10 league buy into the system, you recognize whatever system you have isn’t perfect, you just need OSU defenders to buy into it and facilitate learning and high standards. You could even compare squads from year to year.
Once you set standards for tackling, and build a system, it wouldn’t be difficult to maintain.
By setting a standard, you make clear your expectation, and maybe by gosh your defense begins to form an identity before game 1…that would be a neat deal
ooops . Meant “You might relate it to the total number of offensive plays run by the opposing team.” not “te.”
Good stuff, Monkey. I’m not sure how you come up with 7 points for the way James has been treated since his injury but am in complete agreement that he hasn’t been used effectively.
As said before, James presence on the traveling squad is much more valuable than one more healthy player. The ethic and focus James brings can be most contagious with him in the hotel, on the bus/plane, eaten’ with the team as well as on the sideline during the game. To not fully utilize this asset is as foolish as sending Quiz up the middle over and over.