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Realism vs Pessimism

84

First off, happy Thanksgiving Beavlettes!

Okay, in the comment area I saw these negative comments (ironic, no?) aimed at this site and its commenters:

1. Man the naysayers come out when they smell blood in the water. It is this kind of pessimistic shit that led to 20+ losing seasons. Support the team during the season, leave your bitching for the offseason. These kids deserve better.

2. Concur, with fans like these, you don’t need enemies.

First off, our players are men, not kids. When men embark on a task and fail, they deserve constructive criticism. It's good for everyone. Empathy is a good trait, but only to a point (think Jim Harbaugh's character with cruelty comment). "Bleeding hearts" prolong problems.

Moving on, the thing is, I am not negative or a pessimist. I don't believe in being negative for the sake of it. Yes, I have a critical eye, but ultimately I'm a realist. If a team is good (e.g. The Ducks) I say so; if a team is bad (e.g. The Beavers) I say that, too. That is a realistic and balanced outlook. A truly negative person would say both the Ducks and Beavers suck. For a realist, every bad has an opposite good.

This doesn't stop with football. Here's another example: I exited the stock market in 2008 because it was clear housing was in a bubble. The optimists (and Herman Cain *hehe*) said it wasn't a bubble, that those people were just negative Nancy's who probably owned put options and thus wished for the end of the world. No, I was just a realist and understood the underlying fundamentals were unsound. Same with the market today. It may irrationally rally to Dow 13,000 on good news out of Europe, but true forward-looking value and underlying fundamentals put fair value at around 8500 and possibly much lower (if interest rates increase), so eventually that's where it's going. Therefore, I am out once again. Does that make me negative? A pessimist? Should I blindly throw money into stocks just to be optimistic, a good American, support the system?? Again, this "negative" outlook has a positive counterpoint: I am going to save myself money, and given that stocks are in a bear market, there is likely a bull market somewhere else (e.g. gold). Balance, see?

I found this paragraph, written by "Phil B", interesting. Sums it up nicely:

I'm often called a pessimist, yet I consider myself a realist. I think real pessimists are very negative and depressed most of the time, so I don't consider myself one. I have high hopes for myself, my family, my friends, and humanity.

However, this leads to the point that realism is much closer to pessimism than it is to optimism. And so what if it does? In my opinion, if realism causes negativity, then so be it. People must face the truth, no matter how awful or depressing it may be. Only when people are fully aware of the facts, can people accept reality. As I stated in a previous article about the advantages of negativity, I believe being realistic and thus more negative has advantages. Specifically, negativity highlights opportunities for people to grow and improve their surroundings. Furthermore, only when people are aware of all possibilities, can people accept these possible outcomes and be the most prepared for even the worse case scenario.

One more thought: if Oregon fans had blindly supported Mike Bellotti, the Ducks most likely wouldn't have made a National Title game; if Auburn fans had blindly supported Tommy Tuberville, they most likely wouldn't have won a National Title; and, if Oregon State fans blindly follow Mike Riley, they'll sow their ultimate destination, too.

Hopefully this clarifies my/our "negative" outlook to the Pollyannas. Now, time to go eat some fantastic turkey with my lady and enjoy this beautiful Central Coast weather.  :D

84 COMMENTS

  1. Murphy’s Law:
    Everything that can possibly go wrong will go wrong.

    First Corollary to Murphy’s Law (sometimes called Smith’s Law):
    Murphy was an optimist.

    You don’t have to be ignorant or even willfully blind to be a pollyanna. You need only to follow three rules:
    1. Hope for the best
    2. Do nothing
    3. Accept the results

    Pollyannas by their own definitions are optimists. But they live in a negative loop of constant depression. Those who wish to compare and contrast hypothetical or real seasons of now compared to real seasons of the “28 years” in the hopes of gleaning hope or joy, or simply in an attempt to ward off the boogedy boogedy bad feelings reality presents, those people are simply reaping the rewards of their own negative expectations.

    I refuse to lower my standards for success to the point where I readily and happily accept failure. And to teach this to the younger generations is not just a disservice. It’s criminal. Anyone who wishes to be a pollyanna for the Beavs (or anyone else) should never ever complain or joke about the “trophies for all who participate” method of running youth sports lest they wish to be called hypocrites.

    On that note, I hope everyone enjoys their Thanksgiving and whomever they share it. My bird has been cooking for 14 hours, and I can’t wait to dig in.

      • Actually, if you supported him then did nothing afterward, or if you opposed him and did nothing, then you are a pollyanna… a pessimist of the first order. At least those who oppose him are honest about their hatred and pessimism. Those who supported him blindly while he capitulated to the same morons who put this country in the mess it’s in are equally bad, but you get to throw ignorance on the heap instead of hatred.

        But anyone who saw the Obama campaign hire Larry Summers in the summer before his election should have known that big business was complicit in his election and would be served. That was the point I jumped off his bandwagon.

        I jumped off because of policy. I wish I were a bigot like the Faux News management, editorialists and watchers. Life would be so much simpler if i were to just spew incomprehensible and selfish garbage instead of actually trying to have a discussion.

        But that’s just me.

        • Typical leftist Jack. Think all day about a response, then try to sound like the smartest guy in the room. Pettibonehead has your #.

          • Think all day? I was tipsy and stuffed when I looked at your quip, and I gave a quick response. If you want, i can go on about how the commoditization of labor capital is immoral when viewed in the context of democracy and freedom, and I could easily tell you the truth about Adam Smith’s invisible hand analogy instead of the bastardization which is prevalent these days.

            But then, I read his works from beginning to end, as well as the works of many others who current economists fail to correctly cite when they decide to push agendas not related to real and valid economic thought.

            In that context, it’s easy to be smartest in the room, because the others have any idea what they’re talking about. But leftist? Do you even know what that means? Or are you just dredging up tags because that’s what you were taught to do in order to push your agenda.

            As I said, real discussion is preferred. If you want to talk reality versus the perceptions which are reality, then by all means tell me how service and sacrifice and sharing for the common good with unity and purpose are all leftist ideals. Tell me how the “I got mine, you fuck off!” school of thought has made our nation so great. Tell me how parochial interests conserve our nation.

            I’ll bet you don’t even know why the Boston Tea party participants dressed as natives. You probably do know that they threw the tea overboard as a rebellion against the corporatocracy. And I’m also assuming you already know they were careful to not damage the ships… and even swabbed the decks and faked the lines when they were done because the owners of those ships were local and small time transporters who were only doing the bidding of the corporatocracy under threat of being squashed by the crown.

            Tell me how long all day is now.

          • Big problem with the economists you reference is that they all attempt to justify themselves via game theory, but the underlying assumption that all actors always act rationally almost never holds. I take the economist’s models with a speck of salt.

          • They don’t even get game theory correct. i can’t tell you how many times I’ve yelled at the TV (metaphorically) when some mentally stunted news anchor references a zero sum game as if it’s simply a tug of war. If it was that simple, it wouldn’t be studied as intensely as it is. It would be physics. But i understand where they fail. I remember game theory for the students who were in it rather than the material covered. They just could not understand anything beyond their little linear worlds.

            Aced the tests… never did homework… me and a friend openly taunted classmates’ stupidity in class. Gawd I was a stupid frosh who thought he knew everything. I would probably punch me now if I met me then.

          • Occupy Angry, stop baiting people into political arguments…

            Consider that your admonition. Use the forums for economic/political debate–there is a “free for all” section where you can discuss anything you’d like.

          • Dammit Angry! I was almost done with my 2000 word thesis on why Teddy Roosevelt laid the framework for third party political success in 21st century and what politicians should be paying heed today. Oh well, thank god for the delete button!

          • Sorry Angry, Jacks getting his panties in a wad humor’s me. I’ll stop. What I really look to the site for is recruiting updates, maybe the two of you could do an update of commits, leans and long shots next week, when the season is done. No comments please that the season was over 2 months ago.

  2. Interesting article in the Oregonian. Apparently, MR is not happy about Tyner’s “Sac St.” comment. He’s limited in what he can say because Tyner is a unsigned recruit, but the gist was that he thinks it is an unfair comment. I think Tyner was providing a dose of realism and Riley is the pollyanna. Of course, the Oregon media always praises MR’s optimism. I guess that is his only option at this point.

    Happy Thanksgiving guys….Go Lions! I’m having Papa Murphy’s Pizza cold, coffee and red licorce for my “breakfast brunch”, no worries if I behave myself there is bird with the trimmings later on. We are an evening Thanksgiving family and I’m not sure why!

  3. I believe the negativity comes from pure frustration. Players can’t say anything against the program, although they look frustrated after taking a loss. Lack of coaching leadership, direction and poor decision making I believe are always on players minds, especially when they work so hard themselves.

    Fans are frustrated also because of two losing seasons in a row, possible 4 straight Civil War losses to the ducks, observing poor coaching performance, game plans and play calling. And no one can do anything about it. Bob D, Riley and coaching staff have circled the wagons against any criticism against the program. OSU president is mute and elusive. OSU’s Daily Barometer newspaper can’t say anything against the program without Bob d. coming down on them. Where Arizona took swift action, it seems like OSU is complacent and dumb founded about what is going on. A sad situation indeed.

    • Once these OLmen graduate things will pick up. Riley will be back to 7 or 8 wins (and costing the team 1 or 2 wins per year with his and his staff’s mistakes)…

      Fred Thompson will make a big difference next year on D, too. The DL should be great, especially if they can land a JC like Salt. Riley cost the team some wins this year, but 4 walk-on OL and 2 high school level DTs…nobody can overcome that. Granted, Riley recruited these guys and/or didn’t step things up (until 2009) after Gilstrap passed away, so it’s his error and responsibility.

      I have no doubt the Beavs will win 7 or 8 games either next year or the year after that, but the question is whether that is good enough. Is 7 wins with your head coach costing you a few games (DJ Woods fumble, UCLA clock, not using TOs, OOC schedule negligence, keeping antiquated coordinators, not maximizing leverage, no attention to detail, etc) per year okay? The wins Riley costs are the difference between a Rose Bowl and Sun Bowl. For me, no, Riley is okay but not good enough. I wavered for years because of many confusing and conflicting variables, but I finally have conviction about what Riley is. He’ll never make a Rose Bowl.

      • To me, from the way Riley’s contract is structured, division, conference or Rose Bowl championships are NOT the expectation from those above him. Seven win seasons and minor bowl games are what is expected.

        For change to take place, it will unfortunately take another losing season and who knows if even that will be enough (it’s not like we get any feedback from BDC). It seems like the fanbase is kind of held hostage by the administrations decision to crown MR coach for life. I think we are kind of stuck with what we have and that is a little depressing as a fan.

      • angry whats the story on Fred Thompson? Grades? injury? Why is it that we don’t have single LB or DT commit. Wynn and Chrichton look like they have futures at end, but aside them and Unga I see a lot of continued problems for the front seven next year. I had hopes for Doctor and Collins this year, but they have disappointed and I don’t see Wilson or Robinson as answers.

        The offensive line will have to “replace” Remmers and Grant, and I like that we made recuiting for the offensive line a priority, but banking on an offensive lineman to start as a true freshman is a tough proposistion, Seulamo might be able to pull it off though. Hopefully, Phillipp can play next year, his kneee is better and he’s put some bulk on because they don’t have a decent left tackle. I still see this group as being “iffy” next year.

        The OOC does look improved for next year. If you play three cupcakes and breakeven in the pac thats a bowl game and a young team could really use the additional practice and confidence.

        gotten off subject here,- mostly my point was how the hell are we going to improve the horrific run defense!!

      • Angry, I believe you live outside of the Portland area correct? Local radio continues to tell us Beaver fans to remember that Riley had us within 1 win of a rose bowl, twice. Many callers agree and seem to think we’re over reacting on Riley. Add this prevalent attitude to the “besides, who ya gonna get to come to Corvallis to coach?” school of thought and it is mind numbing up here!
        Take a fucking chance at greatness Beavers! Failure is something to be proud of if you fail while attempting something great. Failing while shooting for mediocrity is a shame.

  4. I see the point in the person’s post to a degree. I think the post on this site sometimes cross the line. I have a couple of valid points to carp about.
    1. Mike Riley and the coaches
    2. Murphy’s law or being human or inexperienced

    A lot has been said of Pankey. He didn’t have the talent (see # 1). There were better players who should have been on the field (see # 1 ). He couldn’t tackle or get to the play (see # 1 ) Mike Remmers (see # 1). Mike plays like a wide receiver (bump & run) (see # 1). Mike makes bone head mistakes and is still on the field (see # 1). Mannion is tied for most interceptions in the country, (see # 2) and for the protection he gets (see #1). A lot of guys growing up dream of playing college football. Who would turn down an offer to go to a PAC 10/12 University for free, or have the chance to become a scholarship player ( see # 1). Derogatory comments about a young man who should be playing at the JC level (see #1 ) are not directed at the correct people/person’s. Riley makes 1.5 million. The paper said Belloti is now collecting 500g a year in PERS for the rest of his life. Riley also will have a monster retirement in PERS. So he should have a big pair to take the heat. He is responsible for who is on the team, the condition and training of the team, preparation for the season and each game, the play calling, time management in the games and the assistants to help him accomplish this. Riley seems to have an inability to take blame, so we need to heap it on him. I do know this site heaps plenty on him, but as to the players (see #1).

        • I saw that on the front page too but didn’t have the time to grab the paper and read anything past the jump. I am just surprised that a football coach even needs a state supported retirement. They make enough as it is.

          • Yeah the thought had not occured to me either, especially after Mike’s sweet severance package, granted that supposedly was not taxpayer funded.

          • I saw somewhere back in August that the four highest paid people by the State of Oregon (to date in 2011) were Kelly, Bellotti, Altman and Kent. Riley followed them, and Westhead was right behind him.

            I’ll see if I can find that list.

  5. Fully agree with Angry’s realist take. It’s like Ted Miller saying only a vocal minority are ready for significant change at OSU. The truth is a healthy majority want some kind of change. Where some differ is on how much is needed this offseason. If nothing at all is done then the inspector glasses come out next year and Riley’s program should be under a microscope.

    Oregon 49, OSU 20

    Oregon St. @ Oregon (115th Civil War) Preview:
    http://beaverbyte.com

    • Why is Ted Miller such a Riley apologist anyway? I don’t expect him to blast MR day and night, but I find Miller dismissive and condescending to Beaver fans. Reading between the lines, Miller is definitely from “this is the best coaching you can get, shut up and accept it” camp, yet he is not 68 years old nor does he wear a thick Beaver sweatshirt to the early September afternoon home game. I don’t get it?

    • FUCK. Kevin Sumlin would take ASU to a level Erickson couldn’t. He’s such a great coach. At least they would be in the south division.

  6. Angry, I think you need to be more specific, central CALIFORNIA coast weather. Lincoln City, OR 46 degrees, rain and high wind warning. But wait that might be too negative for this board. You’re right on about realism and negativity .

  7. How come colleges with better records than OSU are getting new and better coaches and we are not? Our fans suck at putting pressure on the University…..that’s why we will have a second rate football program. Duck fans sure would not put up with a failed program for this long.

  8. Again, I dont see any pessimists here. If OSU were the favored team in the coming Civil War, someone saying they would lose anyway, would be a pessimist.

    Oregon went to a NC game last year and have been ranked in the top 10 all year. OSU, on the other hand, needs a blue moon to just win a game, against even a weak opponent. Anyone who projects OSU to a big loss against UO isnt a pessimist. Anyone who projects a win is living in a dream world (imo).

    Yes, OSU might win….BUT it will take a blue moon to get it done. Yes, a diehard fan lives in a dream world, where huge underdogs can win…..and once in a blue moon, they do.

    And Yes, it is unlikely that Mike Riley will come around to taking the blame for his and associates bad coaching. But if pressure is brought to bear, he might get better associates. Anyone who doesnt try to at least express themselves to help this to happen, isnt much of a fan, imo.

    • I thought Buker was a bit manipulative in this piece, trying to get us to feel sorry for Riley. Would have been a great opportunity to ask MR some of Silverstream’s questions. Try to get to the real meat of the issues.

      • Agreed. MR’s latest statements make even clearer the need for accountability in the OSU football program. I intend to follow-up aggressively with Buker after the Civil War, to try yet again to get answers to these fundamental questions….

    • This latest article from Buker makes it sound like Banker and Langsdorf are safe for at least another year, regardless of what happens this Saturday at Autzen, and regardless of the poor performance of both the OSU offense and the OSU defense for the past couple of years. Is there some other way to read this?

      • No, I think Riley was saying (in his nice guy way) to the naysayers, shut the F up, I have another year to do it my way and if we can get to a minor bowl in 2012, I write my own ticket to 2019. Kind of JoePa light without the baggage.

  9. I wish he could just win!!! It’s hard to hate Riley, he’s like your best friend who you expect more out of. He has the ability but is lacking something… Just can’t pin point it, but it’s there, he has all the tools. I truly feels it’s our talent level…

  10. Angry,

    I actually enjoy the site and my comment was only directed at some new posters who appeared and seem to only post the negative. I do not have my head in the sand, I know there are problems with the program. I think we need to push hard for some changes in the off season. I become frustrated sometimes with posters that just post to be negative without real data or experience to back it up. If you have something insightful to say, negative or whatever I am all for expressing that. I don’t think it is good to bitch, just to bitch. I wouldn’t stick around if I didn’t think you or most of the posters on this site had something good to say or new insights to levy. In any case I appreciate the constructive criticism. Go Beavs!

  11. Is Katz graduating this spring? If so he could try the Russel Wilson free agent route. Hope he sticks around, but hard to blame him for leaving if he does.

    Does anyone else find it strange that so many of Mannion’s passes are wobbly ducks? How can the son of a football coach not throw spirals? Hoping for a miracle on Saturday. Go Beavs!

    • Yes, Katz looks like he is on the way to graduate early, so he can find a D-1 school if he wants. I mentioned earlier that there is a rumor out there that UK is interested. I guess Katz would either be running for his life against SEC defenses or if he somehow does well a lot of scouts will be taking notice.

  12. Oregon State’s black friday deal is pretty good today. Men’s basketball tickets are half price plus no service fees. I picked up some portland state tickets at 3 for $22.50. Not bad at all…

    • Good deal………I wonder how many Beaver fans show up at Autzen tomorrow? Those who do attend I hope will wear “our” color BLACK.

      • We’re wearing orange for the reason osbeav states, contrast. Though I was seriously eyeing the brown paper bags at Fred Meyers earlier. Not that I’m ashamed to be a beaver supporter, just to show that I want change.

  13. I hope you are all reading the McBert blog on oregonstate.edu. I think it’s delightful and a reason to be happy about the good young men who are the basketball team.

  14. Yikes. Colorado is beating Utah in Salt Lake City 17-14 with 7 minutes left. If the Utes lose the Bruins will be in the Pac-12 Championship game. I wish USC was available to play in the championship game.

      • ANNNNNNNNNNNNNND UCLA advances to the championship game. Game management by Whittingham was poor. Have to throw to either get the ball out of bounds and stop the clock or throw over the middle to gain some yards and make it an easier kick on a kicker with the special teams rushing to get on the field.

  15. LSU sure looked good against the Razerbacks. A good example of great ground play calling especially in second half. I can see why LSU is number 1. Great game.

    How many are going to turn TV off if game gets out of hand by ducks? I can’t stand to see them get beat up any more……..

      • Not one of Whittingham’s better coaching efforts, not to make excuses but Hayes has a lot of limitations, Notice how Colorado did not have any problems stacking the box against the Utes (especially in the first half), but apparently this is too much for Banker to gameplan.

  16. #5 Syracuse comes from behind to narrowly defeat Standord @ madison square garden. Stanford and Osu are starting in very similar fashion this season. And these were 2 of the worst teams in the pac-10 last season.

    • Oregon State is better than Stanford but the Cardinal are much improved. They’re really the only two teams in the conference who haven’t had a bad game so far. Both are definitely top 5 teams in the conference.

    • And Stanford fan gave me crap last year after the pac tourney when I said them and us would likely fight it out for third or fourth in the league this year. Stanford fan wanted Dawkins gone NOW! And he couldn’t see anything of value on our roster (again, with Haynes leaving). Stanford fan is happily eating crow right now.

    • Hmmm… i don’t like the celebratory tone. i’m not the biggest RR fan. in fact, I would have rather seen Welch taking those minutes. But I’m not going to LOL or “good news” an injury to him. The reality is that we could be better without him. But there’s no reason to laugh at him or his situation.

      • As we have seen concussions are serious stuff. Now, if we want to discuss whether some of Pankey’s reads last year may have indicated that he was playing with a chronic impairment of some kind, then I think that is a fair debate!

  17. I bought my 2 sets of Orange Pride Pack Basketball tickets earlier this week for around $140….only to find out that today, you can get 2 Orange Pride Pack tickets for $70!!!! WTF!!! What kind of marketing is that!!! Get the word out that you’re going to have Black Friday sales, and possibly some tickets will be including in the Black Friday sales!!! NOPE!! NO ADVERTISING AT ALL!!!! UGH!! We need a new marketing manager!!!

    • I have to agree with this. They could have sold everything with today as a deadline. I just don’t get our marketing.

      On the flip side… we have the best prices in the land for hoops tickets. i want those to never change. i only want the demand to change.

  18. Hi BN.. It’s me again the old coach. Guess what!!! I’m heading down to Autzen!! I’m a last minute add to a party of Ducks. Great seats, reserved parking and a post-game reception pass.

    These guys are all friends so I won’t take any verbal abuse in the likely event of a lopsided slaughter.

    For those of you staying home today Auburn vs. Alabama kicks off at 12:30.. it should be a great game.

    Only nine hours until this 2011 nightmare is over! JB

    • Dear PBH.

      Would it also be fair to assume that in nine hours your one act play will be departing for greener pastures? I would recommend Northern Illinois, but that program seems to have thrived without your “leadership”! Maybe Bob Davie wants to run the flexbone?

  19. Is it odd that I am actually more excited about watching the hoops team this morning than I am the Civil War? I guess it is the difference between promise and a sense of impending doom. Don’t get me wrong, I will be rooting for a miracle, but it’s an empty feeling knowing that the team is severely outgunned in all facets of the game.

      • I think they lost over 20 games last year, no wins this year, but they have played a very tough schedule. In looking at their results, they only lost to Michigan by 17 which I guess would be their best performance. The “new” Beavs should really dominate this one.

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