Home Baseball Baseball: Arkansas-Little Rock @ Oregon State

Baseball: Arkansas-Little Rock @ Oregon State

147

There's a cliche in sports that it's not what happens, but how you react to what happens. With that in mind, it's time to begin our second season.

Game time is 6pm, and the pitching match up is as follows:

James Nygren (8-3, 3.18) vs Travis Henke (1-5, 5.12)

ALR went 18-32 during the regular season. They pitch to a 5.84 team ERA (247th nationally). The short of it is that ALR is not a very good team. They caught a fire late and won the Sun Belt Conference tournament, earning the automatic bid as an unprecedented 8 seed. Now, they did beat some decent teams in Florida International (#27), Troy (#50), and Florida Atlantic (#51). So, they are likely riding that high and feeling a mix of confidence and "nothing to lose" swagger.

Even so, I am not concerned about this game. ALR has earned respect, but there's no reason to fear them. The Beavers have a large talent mismatch, and I just have a sixth sense that things are going to click tomorrow. I'm more worried about Creighton…they've won 9 of 10 down the stretch, have two great arms at the top of their rotation, and a diverse, efficient offense.

Predictions: Oregon State 7, Arkansas-LR 1 | Creighton 6, Georgia 3

Video Stream: ESPN3

147 COMMENTS

  1. Are you sure on the starter? I’ve heard that Gaviglio and Osich will be held for the weekend games, and Nygren would start against A-LR. It makes sense given the way the seeds play the normal series out beginning with the weakest instead of the strongest opponent.

    If I’m Casey, I roll the dice with a Nygren vs an A-LR, and make the Saturday night game the most important game of the weekend.

    • I received confirmation it will be Gaviglio.

      I heard the Nygren situation mentioned, too. I’m glad Casey is going with Gaviglio…if the team weren’t on a 5 game losing streak I could see gambling on Nygren.

      • I’m okay with Gaviglio starting. But if the Beavs jump out to a big lead in the first inning or two, I would pull Gaviglio immediately and save him for the weekend. Sure, there is some risk with this strategy. But the Beavs — staked to a big lead at home — should have no trouble beating A-LR without Gaviglio.

        • When has Gaviglio ever pitched on short rest? These starting pitchers have a lot of mental prep to do and usually aren’t good at getting bounced around (Nickerson was an exception). My ideal is for Sam G. to pitch a complete game and save the bullpen for Sat. and Sun.

          This game should be as much about getting back on track for the Beavers. Get settled in the field. Start hitting the ball, especially at the top of the order. Get aggressive.

          Don’t assume too much. OSU has, in the opinion of most, over-achieved this season. Don’t get complacent.

          • I was okay with Gaviglio starting today, so long as he was pulled quickly if the Beavs got a big lead. But I definitely prefer this new strategy — saving Gaviglio to pitch tomorrow. The opponent tomorrow will most likely be Creighton. If we win that game, it is highly likely that we win the regional.

            Is there a risk throwing Nygren today? Yes, of course. But — honestly — if the Beavs can’t beat A-LR without Gaviglio, the Beavs simply aren’t a good enough team to make any noise in this year’s playoffs.

            A-LR is a weak team — one of the weakest in the whole tournament. If you believe in the Beavs as a team, you plan to win tonight vs A-LR with Nygren and the bullpen. You save your ace — Gaviglio — for the crucial game tomorrow against Creighton.

            Go Beavers!

  2. Well, James Nygren does get the nod after all.

    http://kohd.com/sports/214086

    This is strange, because I double-checked this morning with someone very close to OSU who confirmed it would be Gaviglio.

    Thoughts?

    I think you have to throw your ace and stop the 5 game losing streak. Nygren should do that since ALR is so bad, but the odds are less. The positive I’ll say about Nygren is he works fast, keeps the defense on their toes (great point by JackBeav about this in the last post), and has pitched at about the same level as Osich, so it’s not that big a drop. But, Casey is really gambling here…and it’s not necessary given the relatively weak regional. If we had some national powers in this regional I’d be all for this move.

    • This isn’t the first time Casey has thrown Nygren to start a series/weekend. But is it the first for anyone but Sam to go on Friday? I’m torn on this one. I can argue both ways. It does feel right to just stop the bleeding by going with your ace. But I also think second season strategy has to be what it would be if we were on a tear.

      Nygren works the ball around the horn better than Gaviglio does at this time, and he should be fresh with potentially great stuff. A-LR should be unprepared for quality pitching, patient hitting and the home crowd.

      But what if a Nygren without control shows up? What if patient hitting translates to a scouting report which puts a fast ball on a rail for the first pitch of every at bat? What’s our line-up going to be?

      I think the last question is the interesting one. I’ve not really liked the line-up too much in the last couple weeks. As much as I love Tyler Smith, I love Jake that much more. They’re not even close at the plate, and I think Jake plays better in the field with all the intangibles he brings. He seems to have a calming influence on the defense and the pitcher when needed. Berberet, Dunn and Bell should close the IF with Susac at C and Keyes at DH. Stamps is obvious in CF because he is by far the best fielder, but I think Nash should be in the mix for defense as well. And Norris should be RF for his hitting as much as his arm.

      What I don’t like is how the line-up has been set. Stamps just doesn’t get the lead-off work done. He’s a great base-runner, but I don’t get the feeling he can get on base in any way if he wanted. My totally unjustified senses tell me Nash is the lead-off waiting to happen. I just wish his average would justify those senses. Still, he has enough patience to take a BB, enough control to lay down a bunt and he’s also a great base-runner. He also has the ability to turn the bottom of the order into runs from the 1 spot. Stamps seems to be an adrenaline hitter who does better when the pitcher is in the stretch.

      I would move Susac into the 3 spot to put pressure on their P. He’s the one guy who can be patient and aggressive at the same time. Follow him up with Keyes, Bell, Jake, Dunn, Norris and Berberet.

      I feel solid with those guys at the plate, and I know they can rock the field. But I can guess we’re going to see Gordon, Miller and Smith at LF, RF and 2B. I don’t think that line-up hurts us this weekend, but I think they’re stoned at the SR, and look shaky in the field as a result.

      Or maybe those three do what they haven’t done in the past?

      I can’t help but wonder where Poyer would be if he stuck with baseball this spring.

  3. Anyone miss Tyler Smith?

    While he isn’t a masher, he set the tone with tough, grind-it-out at bats and great defense. I feel like the team chemistry was fantastic whenever he was in the game, and decreased as he lost playing time.

    • I’m missing something. Smith is out?

      I miss him as an option, but I think Jake is the better 2B for all the same reasons. Though Smith may have a better rapport with the older pitchers, Jake seems to have a better sense for reading each hitter and getting the P on board. And Jake plays 2B downhill while Smith has seemed to be on his heels lately. I (accidentally out loud) called that E he had against Nikegon on Friday before the ball took its last two bounces. You could just see he was waiting for trouble to happen to him rather than just taking it to the play.

      And who makes the call for a DP starting from the 3B? I thought Bell made a mistake trying to take two while off-balance and the bases loaded. It was a great attempt, but home made more sense to me at that time. Was that the SS’s call?

  4. I saw Casey tinkering with the line-up over the last two games, and I think he has the same sense. But without results, it’s just pissing in the wind.

    I think he put people in the wrong spots to produce. Susac to the 3, Keyes to the clean-up and Barnes to lead off were the only consistent spots. Maybe Nash in the 2 spot would work?

    The reason I keep going back to Nash is that he always seems to be on the bases. He can go O-fer and still have three runs and be LOB twice. Protecting his bat with Susac and putting him in a position to advance runners or just get on base is where he seems to work best.

    I think our greatest weakness this year has been the poor defensive play at SS. We have nobody to lock it down on the left side. Maybe Casey should just throw Keyes back out there and let the position be what it is.

  5. I have to say that I really like ESPN3’s options for viewing. I have my laptop set up with mosaic viewing so I can see all three games they’re offering at the moment. It gets a little choppy when the commercials come on. I guess the live stream eats less bandwidth.

    It looked like OU solved DB’s pitching and was going to break it open in the 6th, but DB shut them down. Still 1-1.

  6. I’ve only been to one Beav baseball game before and that was that Pac-10 attendance record setting game against Oregon a couple years ago at PGE park.
    So, I am heading down to today’s game with much anticipation and excitement. Very curious as to the atmosphere I will encounter. The sun is out and I’m off work in a couple hours so all is good!

  7. I went to the ATT.NET site to try to set up an ATT.NET e-mail, and it basicall takes me to the Yahoo account I used to use all the time. ATT and Yahoo? I don’t know, it’s a friggin pain, I guess I’ll just follow the game on the Game Tracker tonight if I can (8pm in my neck of the woods).

    • OU batter to start the bottom of the 8th sticks his arm over the plate to try to get a HBP and gets called out for his effort. I’m not sure why OU’s coach thought it was worth stalling the game for a discussion.

      Does anyone know the HBP rule? OU had one earlier where the batter just stood stone-still on a slow breaker that went wild. A sloth could have dodged it. I thought the batter had to make some effort to get out of the way.

  8. Mightily concerned. Hope he makes me look foolish but Nygren has sucked as often as not his whole career. There’s a reason he’s still here as a senior. I’m sure I’ll be sitting at Goss with my eyes covered often. The drive down to Corvallis will be frought with worry. Should I get a ticket I’ll just say I was too worried about our starting pitcher and not my speedometer.

    • Our 3-5 starters seem to have alternating good and bad starts throughout the season. Nygren was weak last Sunday, so maybe the short week and alternating to a good week does the trick.

    • That was a quick game. you were 33% correct.

      DB puts one across in the top of the 10th to win. The same batter who leaned over the plate for the automatic out in the 8th for OU watches the same curve ball go over the plate in the same place to end the game with a runner on 2nd.

      • I watched the last three innings via the ESPN 3 feed. I agree that Creighton didn’t look intimidating at the plate. Creighton batters appeared to swing and miss at a lot of average curve balls (and also swung at a lot of balls out of the strike zone). I think Gaviglio would do well against the Creighton lineup. Hope he gets the chance….

  9. Zona shut out 0-4 vs Seton Hall… Cal with four late runs to lose to Baylor 4-6… Coastal Carolina smokes UCONN 13-1… Troy pounces on OkSt 9-2… Irvine’s all over Fresno 6-2 in the 4th… Charlotte is up on Arky 3-0 in the 2nd… Fla/Manhattan is as boring late as it was in the 1st.

  10. BCU and FSU is a wild one. FSU rallies for 4 in the bottom of the 5th to go up 5-3. Then BCU hits two solo shots to tie it up in the 6th, and they’re still trying to rally with two outs.

  11. I get it on ESPN3.com So I’ll be watching it their thanks to Comcast for providing it as part of the sports package we have! :)

  12. What do you guys think of tonight’s lineup? Barnes-RF, Norris-1B, Keyes-DH, Susac-C, Dunn-SS, Gordon-LF, Bell-3B, Rodriguez-2B, Stamps-CF, Nygren-P.

    Gordon is a head scratcher but at least he’s hitting sixth and not first. I’m not sure Keyes should be third but he hasn’t been as productive lately either. If he returns to form, he should he moved back to cleanup. I like the bottom of the order a lot. Stamps, if he gets on, will give us a lot of opportunities going back to the top. I would maybe have switched Rodriguez and Stamps.

  13. The broadcast volume on the espn3.com feed really low for you guys too? Have my speakers at max volume and it’s still quiet.

  14. Sweet, can’t get ESPN3 and the gametracker is apparently down. Sounds like it might be better this waye. My poor 92 yr old is going to be bumbed if they tank.

    • No kidding. Obviously the ESPN announcers can’t hear the coaches’ arguments, but they say ALR’s coach would argue that Hencke’s motion starts with the other foot on the rubber. Nothing in the balk rules says that it matters which foot you start with on the rubber. The pitcher made an illegal move, period.

  15. This is all on Casey. He disrespected ALR by pitching Nygren, and he also gave his team no room for error by throwing a guy who gives up runs. Not exactly smart when you have a 5 game losing streak and a tight team. This lineup would be fine if the Beavs were playing at mid-season form…

    Still a lot of time, though. But, I hated this decision before the game and hate it more now.

    • Angry — I agree, this is all on Casey. But I still think Casey has made the right move. Yes, Casey is disrespecting A-LR. But A-LR deserves to be disrespected. No way A-LR should be able to hang with OSU.

      Yes, the Beavs are down 2-0 after three innings. The big problem at the moment is the offense. But if the Beavs can’t score at least seven runs against A-LR, the Beavs are going nowhere this postseason anyway. Be patient. I think the Beavs’ offense will come around…..

      • I don’t think any team deserves to be disrespected, and look at the list of teams they beat in the Sun Belt Tourny. It’s not bad. I think I put it best in that they should be respected but not feared.

        I think they’ll come around, too. ALR has one of the worst ERAs in the NCAA…it’s a matter of time (I think???)

  16. I hate giving up outs,but that is Casey. You have a damn aluminum bat in your hard, hit that damn ball in the game 5 hitter.

  17. Uh oh. Very bad inning for the Beavs. Susac passed ball. Then a misplayed fly ball in right field. Then a single. Nygren pitched ok, but had some bad luck. Beavs down 4-0.

    Still expecting Beavs to start scoring, but it’s getting late early…..

  18. It’s funny that Beaver fans clapped when Nygren left…that’s the most noise they’ve made all day, and it’s to do the faux-classy routine. Cheering a bad outing…leave it to Beavers…

  19. This regional is all but over. No signs that we can get a timely hit, and we don’t really have the pitching to last more than three games in three days.

    EDIT: To be fair, I have to eat my hat. Scrappy play by the Beavs gets the game, 7-4.

  20. I never bought into Angry’s criticism of the “old” fan base at OSU until this game. From looking at the stands, it looks like they are playing in a damn retirement village.

    • Corvallis is not a young town. When I was growing up there several schools were closing because of demographic shifts and declining enrollment. And the cost of living is high, limiting the ability of the younger peoples’ and families’ ability to buy things such as baseball tickets.

    • That was my thought, I like aggression at the plate, but the pitcher had just walked a guy and thrown two wild pitches. Find something you can get up in the air to right and be a hero!

  21. I don’t like how often OSU takes first-pitch strikes, but that pitch was a little inside for Keyes to be swinging at. Still, it’s hard to complain about a three-run inning.

    • Bats are coming alive, that’s for damn sure. Not a moment too soon. Still haven’t come up with a couple of hits with runners in scoring position, but today was a GIANT step in the right direction. Good to get some hits against a hot team.

  22. Pat Casey took a risk, as he should have. And it’s turned out fine (although it got a bit scary for a while). We win this game, and then have our #1, Gaviglio, going tomorrow against Creighton’s #2. Go Beavers!!

  23. Do the Super Regionals start on Friday or Saturday? I think they start on Saturday, which might give another reason why Casey wasn’t afraid to have Gaviglio pitch on Saturday.

    • You’re getting way too far ahead of yourself looking at Super regional. If I remember from other seasons, teams don’t find out until after all the regionals are done. Half start Friday, the rest on Saturday.

      • Yeah, can’t look too far ahead in the postseason but yes, half start on Friday an half on Saturday. I think OSU may start on Saturday due to the amount of travel. Either way, the games will be on ESPN, ESPNU or ESPN2 for sure. This is the last weekend of the year I don’t get to watch the games, thankfully.

  24. It was nice that the Beavers were able to bounce back and win this one, really helps with their confidence. The last few innings the Beavers seemed to get back to what made them successful. Baseball is a funny sport, one minute you look awful and then you get one thing to go your way and you can get on a roll.

    • This could have been a “trap” game for the Beavs, they needed the win to get their heads right just as much as to advance in the winners bracket. Earlier stories about Bell calling a players only meeting and the mohawk haircuts had me optimistic but those first innings were gut wrenching for sure.

      Love those “killer bees”!

  25. Who do you guys like tomorrow?
    Creighton’s #2 has numbers similar to their ace. Wondering how many runs the Beavs will score off them. I think it’ll be low scoring/close. Something like 3-2…I like the Beavs.

      • Yeah, I would say it will be a 3-2/4-2 ball game. I think the Beavers win and sit in the drivers seat and advance on Sunday.

        Surprised UCLA lost at home to San Francisco. They face a good Fresno State team tomorrow in an elimination game. Will be tough for the Bruins to win. Pac-10 went just 3-3 today. OSU, ASU and Stanford all won, but ASU needed a walk-off home run to beat a New Mexico who at one point was about 23 games under .500.

    • Creighton’s #2 is Ty Blach. Here’s an interview with him, where he discusses his attitude going into tomorrow’s game: http://www.omaha.com/article/20110603/BLUEJAYS/706039783

      According to the interview article, Blach pitched as Creighton’s #1 for much of the season, and is considered a “co-ace”. But looking at Blach’s stats, he is not as dominant as Jonas Dufek, the guy who pitched today for Creighton. Blach’s ERA is higher (2.72 vs 2.08). He has significantly fewer strikeouts (92 vs 128). And, most importantly, opposing hitters get a lot more hits off him (avg against is .240 for Blach vs .198 for Dufek).

      The stats strongly suggest that Blach is more hittable than Dufek, and that Blach’s stuff is not overpowering. Blach describes himself, in the interview, as the kind of pitcher who tries to throw the ball over the plate and then lets his defense make plays behind him. His stats confirm this.

      I think the Beavs score at least four runs tomorrow, and maybe quite a few more. If Gaviglio brings his “A” game, and the relievers do their jobs again, that should be enough to win. I, too, like the Beavs tomorrow against Creighton….

  26. Yeah… I was never worried.

    If Danny Hayes is back, I’d love to see him play. He’s one of my favorite players when he’s on. And Nash did some nice damage with the bat as well. Norris and Gordon will likely be shelved.

    And if Jake doesn’t do more with the bat, then we might as well see Smith in the game. I don’t really like Jake in the 8 hole. But he got plenty of opportunity, so there can’t be any complaints about that.

    I’d expect the same line-up with Nash in LF, Hayes at 1B and maybe Smith at 2B and Berberet at C with Susac at DH. I’d still like to probably see Keyes just take the SS role. Dunn can’t boot everything.

    And over the past couple weeks Bell has been grinding out some long at bats. He hadn’t been connecting on them until last night. I think his called meeting might have affected him more than anyone. He looked fired up, and I think he’s on the verge of a hot streak.

    • I like Hayes and Smith in the lineup because they’re the two guys who consistently and expertly work counts. Not sure what their OBP is, but I know they’ve both had a lot of 3 ball counts. Smith also had a handful of clutch hits…might have a low average, but he gets hits when they matter. The team chemistry seems improved when both are on the field, too. I’m not sure why Casey stopped using those guys…injury? I don’t remember any…

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