This isn’t based on Saturday. It’s based off his entire career. He’s Derek Anderson.
But for those who like numbers, he doesn’t have any signature wins in 4 years (unless you give him 10-7 over Wisconsin in 2012) and wilts in the spotlight (4INTs vs Washington in 2012 when the Beavs were looking to go to 7-0, 4INTs in Civil War. He is now 0-7 vs Oregon, USC, and Stanford, which are the most meaningful games the Beavs play in any given year. Another big game vs Texas was a loss. So he is 0-8 in “big games”. If you want to call Wisconsin a big game, then he is 1-9 (because you have to include Wisconsin 2011, which he lost 35-0).
Yet because he sets passing records, which has a lot to do with him starting as a freshman and Riley becoming pass happy(e.g. over 600 pass attempts last year), people believe he’s a great QB. Stats mean little from a QB, and the ones that do matter are things like 3rd down conversions and wins. Mannion beats up on inferior opponents, but he cannot perform once the competition falls between good to elite. He is the prototypical “tweener” who will get drafted high due to height, pedigree, and other measurables. There are always dumb, bottom-feeding owners like Al Davis who eats up a guy’s look and his passing records, but he will be out of the NFL within 2 years.
What is worse, Mike Riley has decided to make Sean Mannion the team’s identity. Usually he says “the team has to find their identity”…well what we have had under Mannion is Riley forcing what he thinks the identity should be—as passing team. This is a big problem since Mannion is just average.
But that is the topic of another thread. The big picture here is that Sean Mannion, much like Mike Riley, is not clutch. He’s a tweener, a deer-in-headlights wannabe gunslinger who can only sling it versus mid-tier and lower opponents. A great quarterback single-handedly wins games, and they also make the players around them better. Forget the passing yards and how he looks.
I’d say 2012 on the road vs UCLA was his “signature” win or possibly vs Arizona (cant remember the year)
Still, not a good track record by any stretch.
That was 2012, too.
Please don’t say useless verbiage about how “clutch” a player is (let alone a coach, who is never called clutch, no matter the sport). People using that term usually just use it to insult players when they don’t have any empirical data to back it up. This isn’t to say that’s what you’re doing, but Mannion defenders will attack it as such.
It’s also hilarious, because Mannion plays exactly how many would describe a “clutch” quarterback. If his receiver catches that second interception, people would be claiming he’s a clutch quarterback that has the guts to take risks, despite that his throwing into double coverage was an idiotic idea.
The very idea of clutchness is terrible anyway, the idea that doing stupid things like throwing into double coverage or to a receiver that’s pretty much smothered isn’t a bad idea so long as the result is good.
Mannion’s problem is not a lack of “clutchness”. He’s just simply an idiot who thinks he can pass to anyone, no matter how bad an idea the throw is.
Now, that being said, it would be interesting to see statistics on how Mannion performed in, say, the final two minutes of games where the score differential is a touchdown or less.
Chad Ochocinco is still a man of the people
http://www.oregonlive.com/sports/index.ssf/2014/09/chad_johnson_former_oregon_sta.html#incart_m-rpt-2
I was never a big fan of D.A. and Sean has always reminded me of him. Rattles easy and makes poor decisions. Brandon bailed him out several times early last season against weaker teams catching balls that should’ve never been thrown. Did’nt work as the season progressed and the competition got better.
While Mannion is a dough, DA still gets paid to play… Starts from the top, Riley’s gotta go
da was better than sean. da had no help and no redshirt year.
Found the problem for Saturday night…Mannion wasn’t holding his tongue right:
http://www.si.com/nfl/2014/09/24/2015-nfl-draft-prospects-sean-mannion-doran-grant
When Mannion beats the quacks then I’ll put him up there with Derek Anderson. Until that happens, he is Sean Canfield.
Mannion’s wins vs Bowl teams, ranked:
1. @ #19 UCLA in 2012 (the south division champ)
2. #13 Wisconsin in 2012 (Big 12 champ)
3. @ Arizona in 2012 (a come from behind win)
4. Boise State in Hawaii Bowl in 2013
5. Washington in 2011 (Washington was beat up but was a bowl team)
6. @ SDSU in 2013 (Aztecs went to Idaho Potato Bowl)
The OT win @ Utah in 2013 should also qualify as a quality win although Utah lost their QB and fizzled after the loss.
impressive list
Now let’s see the losses.
Mannion is probably overrated but I think he is still a decent pro prospect. In the past he has seemed to move around better in the pocket, it seemed to me like he gave up the sack quicker against USC like he was tired of getting destroyed delivering the throw.
Really though I don’t think the USC loss falls on him. The receivers were getting no separation. I was watching a stream so I didn’t have a good view but the fact there were 3 or 4 defensive holdings on USC makes me think that they held at least twice that many times. We don’t have a deep threat with Bolden out and even with Bolden in we don’t have a physical receiver capable of creating space like Cooks could do at the college level. It would be interesting to see the coaches tape on the game and if Mannion really missed many open guys, because from what I saw on the broadcast feed there weren’t many open guys.
I feel kind of bad for Mannion coming back. He is still a 3rd rounder or so IMO. I suppose if he gets the P12 career record it might still be worth it… I imagine he would be a serviceable TV analyst similar to Joey Harrington and something like career passing leader would be big on a resume for a job like that. Mannion is going to take some big hits before the season is over.
This is on the coaches.
We don’t have a creative route tree. Slants beat press coverage all day. We don’t have a simple slant pass in our entire playbook. No pick plays no staggered delay routes.. No using the tight ends who were thought to be a strength, It was just a pathetic display by everyone involved.. Even we the fans in the OSU visiting section didn’t bring our A game. I personally was way to drunk to cheer loud..
Setup the tailgate at 10 AM.. Way too much drinking on my part to be effective.
Mostly agree, but pick-6 was definitely on him
From Connor’s piece on the numbers: “13-5: Sean Mannion’s interception-to-touchdown ratio in Pac-12 play since last November’s loss to USC. Saturday night, the senior paired two picks with no touchdowns.”
Connor has mentioned this several times lately, highlighting the “in Pac-12” aspect. Quality shows best against quality opposition.
What would more likely lead to a Riley exit, a CW win or loss? With a win would he go out feeling good, happy with his Medicore Bowl trophy? Or would a 7th straight loss, and a bowl-free season more likely exhaust him and drive him out?
He’s about .550 winning percentage, trending towards .500, and the next three years are likely to be tough with a new qb (INTs in bunches), young lbs, and younger corners….
After Saturday’s debacle, the only other games on the slate that look interesting are Stanford and UO. Stanford because they still tackle well, and if they defend well, want to see how Mannion does or doesn’t do….UO because if Mariotta is still healthy, curious to see if this D can win the game.
I think OSU should dust off the wildcat plays and run them with Jarmon (who can throw a baseball and should be able to throw at least as good a pass as Quizz) and even Vanderveen.
Brent Brennan is dressing up in the Benny the Beaver mascot outfit when he goes to watch the recruits play. Oh boy.
Oregon State using ‘Benny the Beaver’ on the road for recruiting http://247sports.com/Article/Oregon-State-using-Benny-the-Beaver-on-the-road-for-recruiting-31578436 … via @247Sports
A single man, on the road, wearing his furry costume around high school campuses. I don’t like where this is going….
I thought he is married with kids.
Or did you mean single as in alone… not with other coaches?
Either way, it sounds like the start of a movie of the week story that doesnt end well
Coach Furry?
Wonder if there’s some bonus clause in his contract for doing that….
I think Riley stays till he announces that he has some type of illness. Something is up I saw him pop a pill after Wynn’s offsides penalty on the opening drive vs SDSU. Pharmacist friend thinks he has cancer and pointed out how frail and exhausted he looks plus his hair is really thinning up quick. I really hope not, I think he is a terrible coach but a GREAT person.
He does seem to phase in and out of looking healthy and younger than his age, and then later, usually during the season, he looks ill with something. One of his eyes gets droopy and it looks like he hasn’t slept in three days.
Del Rio to me doesn’t look the role. Looks confused a lot and I’m thinking daddy’s “name” is getting him more hype than he deserves. IMO the real future is McMaryion, kid can throw and run but we all know how Riley feels about duel threat QB’s even though lyle led some of the better Beav teams sans 2000.
Meh… I’d stay away from this kind of analysis, even if true. Exhausted, beat and in over his head sometimes? Sure. But to apply some kind of illness is just speculation and weird.
oops… wrong post response
Just going off what we can physically observe sorry if you don’t like it
It’s not that I don’t like it per se. It’s that it’s irrational.
How is that irrational in 100 words or less?
No proof other than visual observation and guesswork.
So what, it’s irrational to make an observation? Come on
Nope. It’s irrational to parlay that observation into anything other than an observation.
Sorry Jack, you are wrong about what’s irrational or not. Homeboy has some kind of health issue going on, and yes that is relevant! If Riley is ill, it trickles down, hence the lack of enthusiasm, trouble managing the game and stubbornness to delegate duties. Most likely caused by something out of his control, which would make it hard for him to let go, explaining his head scratching behavior. As an alumni and fan I do feel that this is important and I will not be shocked to find out he is sick in the next year or so. Pat Summit knew to walk away as to not be detrimental towards her team something IMO Riley has not come to terms with yet.
You need to show the proof (blood work, medical records… an actual diagnosis from a competent medical professional) which connects your observation to your conclusion. There is no reason to your conclusion, which makes it illogic.
I don’t know why you’re trying to argue otherwise.
Del Rio threw (3) awful passes, so it’s a bit early to throw in the towel.
The loss is on the whole team. The only thing that looked decent out of that game was the defense held their own for quite a while. With the offense continuing to sputter and not resting the defense properly, it caused the defense to wear down and they began falling apart. I still think that the defense is solid this year. I still don’t think that the D will be worth a damn against the spread offense, so I am not sure how far it gets us. That being said I think that it is 50/50 that OSU goes bowling this year.
Personally, I don’t get why Riley is still our coach after losing to two FBS teams the two previous years in a row. Any school that was determined to win and recruit well would not have stood for those losses. College football has a mentality where you are moving up (in rankings) or moving on (in looking for the coach to get you to move up). It is a business. OSU has not caught on to the mentality until recently with the basketball program and that happenstance is still too early to call it a trend, but I am hopeful.
I am ready for OSU to be a competitor every week instead of the team that excels at getting penalties, is pretty predictable in its play calling, can’t manage a clock or timeouts to save its life, and has the enthusiasm and drive of an earthworm.
Hoops officially begins on Wednesday. I’m ready for this.
Roeper calls OSU his top choice. Need some scholarship spots to open
http://www.oregonlive.com/recruiting/index.ssf/2014/09/javier_roper_3-star_small_forw.html
I feel Mannion with a competent Offensive Coordinator (who’s actually allowed to be an Offensive Coordinator instead of Riley’s clipboard holder) would be a good-great quarterback. Riley’s hard on for Mannion’s potential has become an extreme detriment to the team, and long term is ruining Mannion’s first (and maybe even second) round potential. Riley’s whole fucking offense (his life’s work if you will) revolves around a solid run game that leads to play action, which leads to a mixing of plays that keeps the defense off balance. It’s a thing of beauty when it’s working. He seems to draw up a good game plan, executes it during the first quarter or so, and then like an anxious 18 year old getting ready to get laid for the first time (ohhhhh Mannion’s Arm) blows his load and brain turns to mush and falls asleep. (timeout, who needs them PassPassPassPassPassRunPass.) It’s more then just coincidence at this point it’s a pattern.
If some shlub like me who’s never played a down of football sees this, then you know the $500,00 + making DC’s we’re going up against do. If you put Tom Brady out there against a team dropping 8 into coverage all day against receivers that aren’t getting separation (because there really isn’t room anyways) then he will lose/throw ints or take sacks. Riley’s setting Mannion and this team up for failure. You want to point to Mannion being a bad decision maker. What would you do as a QB who’s asked to do the same damn thing over and over again, against a defense that knows what’s coming and you have no recourse to keep them honest as your coach calls the plays.
The sad parts is this team, with great game day coaching is Riley’s chance at a Pac 12 championship. Every team in the Pac 12 looks tough but beatable to me. Riley is ruining these seniors chance to be great. This would have been ( if Riley wakes the fuck up still can be) his year. Hopefully the realization comes this week instead of waiting until the Civil War like last year. Hopefully USC was enough of a wake up call for simple Jack. GET OUT OF YOUR OWN WAY COACH!!!
I like your analysis, but I dont think Riley is asleep, and so, cant wake up.
I think, like others have said, that Riley is a defeated person. And as such, he just isnt capable of putting his ability into what he does. I think he now feels what we see — that he never has got to a top tier bowl. He knows he never will. So now he is just going thru the motions.
The fans, boosters, alums, and the AD might eventually realize this and ease him out. But I expect more misery ahead for us.
Hahahaha, Simple Jack. Never go full retard.
Coming soon to a gridiron near you: Simple Jack vs. Aunt Patti, in the battle of the passing records.
Mannion will dominate this weekend…because the expectations will that much lower.
Never really thought that losing Boldin would impact the team as much as it did. Awful game all around.
Colorado will be tough at home. First time visiting there. The elevation will make a difference. There’s not much you can do to train for the change. I once went to a cabin in the mountains with friends and decided to take a morning jog. I was huffing and puffing in a very short while. Guys will need to sub a little more than usual to catch their breath at times.
Oregon State Rushing
CAR YDS AVG
Storm Woods 9 61 6.8
Terron Ward 7 29 4.1
Sums up what you said.. Damm near 7 yards a pop for Storm yet a whopping 9 carries??!!!!
Are they smart enough to see this??
Most of that was in the first half when the game was still in doubt.
I don’t get your point Bill? The Run is actually even more effective when the team is expecting pass every play. There was never an excuse to abandon the run in that game.. If SC sold out and stacked the box ok. But they didn’t we were picking up big chunks of yardage on the ground and yet for some inexplicable reason went away from it
Mike Riley doesn’t and will never get it. Him and Banker will both see something is working and then stop doing it. Then with the media they’ll talk about how they should have stuck to what was working. Rinse and repeat. The team should run the ball more than they throw it. O-Line is better at run blocking than pass blocking and lack weapons on the outside. Ward and Woods should have at least 15-17 carries a game each. That won’t happen though.
If you think Riley is having a tough go with fans, you should see the blogs on Michigan’s Brady Hoke, who incidentally was an Oregon State D-line coach 89-94. Michigan fans ain’t happy, and Hoke is on the hot seat big time. For a storied program like that to fall to these depths is a sight to see. True, he got a little help from Rich Rod, but this Michigan team is a shadow of what it once was. Hopefully, they won’t get any better by the time we play them on 9/12/15 in Ann Arbor…..
Don’t worry….Riley will find a way to lose to the train-wreck that is Michigan…and play to their level.
or if OSU does manage to beat them it will be, eh Meechicken wasn’t very good. Shit, Utah beat them. Saturday I stated the Utes looked for real up 21-0 on Wazzu. Then Wazzu came back and beat them. I’m guessing there’s more parity in the Pac this year. The Colorado’s, Utah’s, Wazzu’s and Cal are catching up to the rest. I don’t see the Beavs trending upwards.
I’m giving Hoke 2 weeks, although with Rutgers and Penn State he might be able to buy himself some time.
I think Riley lays another egg this weekend. Buffs are still bad but better than last year and we have lost all confidence on offense. 28-14 buffs
I disagree CO is the type of team Mannion dominates.
Not worried about Mannion just lack of using the run game properly, penalties and our D sounds pretty beat up per oregonlive, and CO is putting up #’s
exactly. Colorado’s D is awful, run the fucking ball, eat clock and keep their offense OFF the field. Use the run to setup the pass not the other way around
I admit I haven’t watched one CO snap all year so I have no idea if they’re numbers are legit. But based on last year I feel they stink and are the type of team Mannion lights up, run game or not. But we’ll see soon enough.
they can move the ball and score points against an awful defense (Cal?), but their defense is terrible. A good defense shuts them down
The only regret expressed by coach was that he did not call time out when SC came to the line with one second left. Ok, then what coach? OSU had just come out of a time out. USC had a 90% chance of calling a Hail Mary. Due to distance from goal line, over 50 yards, they had a 70% chance of rolling the right handed qb to the right to get him a running start to throw to the right. They had maybe a 15% chance to go deep middle (longer throw), a 5% chance to go deep to the left (longer throw across field) and a 10% chance to throw short and then try to run it in. With that timeout at one second left coach, how would you have changed or adjusted the defense? Why can’t you tell us?
Mannion is a good QB that isn’t able to raise the level of the players around him. He has benefited from having Markus Wheaton and Brandin Cooks to throw too. These guys are starting in the NFL and Mannion was able to find them.
He’s been hampered during most of his career with a lack of running game. O-line has been inconsistent. Mannion will probably be similar to Canfield…late round pick, possible back-up QB.
Mannion may not be Derek Anderson. Lets wait and see if he makes it in the pros. Derek did.
Wow and I thought the Beavs offensive line was bad. Watching MNF and the Pats O line is worse than awful. I just watched two offensive lineman attempt to block one of Kansas Shitty’s defensive ends. Epic fail. Brady looks rather pedestrian when he’s pressured or on his back.
Yeah, Brady not too clutch tonight.
Anyone know how to get a hold of OSUProf or track down his study on OSU odds of winning in games based off % of runs? Have seen that mentioned and recall seeing the study myself 2 or 3 years ago but don’t know how to track it down to see it again and reveal to others in Beaver Nation so it is clear we are much more likely to win games when running consistently at a healthy amount. Thx!
Media keeps spinning Bolden being out, or Mannion, or this or that, as being reason for the loss. Has absolutely nothing to do with it!
Football is a game of adjustments that are made based on who you are playing. And when your running backs are knocking down yards against a team that was soundly beat by the ground game last week and you go away from it you are an idiot if you try to say Bolden or anything other player had an affect on the games outcome.
A coach who refuses to game plan or refuses to adjust to whom he is playing is the reason we lost… no players fault… these are just friggin kids. It was not the offensive line, not Mannion, not our inexperienced receivers, not nobody but the coach.
BOOOOOOOOOO! BOOOOOOOOO! Riley needs to go before we eternally have no chance to be anything but a get lucky once in a while football team.
Anyone watch the Dallas – Saints game last night? Announcer talked all night long how a pro style team cannot be a pass team without the run game. You would think of all the coaches in the pac-12 Riley the pro-style coach would know this.
The most absurd is that Bolden missing the game mattered at all. It is hilarious how they just penciled him in as Brandin Cooks replacement and therefore hugely important.
I am not anti-Bolden. He is okay. Just not a game-changer and not the reason they lost at all.
Mannion’s arm strength and accuracy are way above average. Mannion’s throwing motion, speed of delivery, and footwork in the pocket have also improved. It wasn’t pure luck that Mannion won the summer 2014 passing competitions at both the Nike and Manning football camps against other top college QBs. Mannion does have some important skills that NFL teams covet in a pocket passer. Mannion has even developed the capability to run for a few yards — in a pinch — when the pocket breaks down, which is an improvement over past years (although Mannion remains barely adequate — at best — in this area).
However, Mannion has too often played poorly under pressure against top-level competition. Saturday’s game against USC was a prime example. It wasn’t just that Mannion made some bad throws and some bad decisions. When the cameras focused on Mannion’s face, one could see the tension, the concern, the lack of confidence. No doubt Mannion’s teammates saw and felt this, too. That’s not the type of leadership that great QB’s provide to their teams in big games.
In short, Mannion came up small against USC — on national TV — and everyone saw it (including Mannion himself — which I’m sure was — and is — very painful to him).
The good news for Mannion is that he can still redeem himself (since OSU still has a number of games against top-level competition to play between now and the end of this season). I hope Mannion gets his act together and rises to the challenge (for Mannion’s own sake, and for OSU’s). But at this point one has to admit that it’s hope rather than experience that’s driving the bus….
I won’t say that Mannion didn’t have a bad game. He did. My question is did Riley help create that?
What I saw was Mannion constantly looking over to the sidelines waiting and waiting and waiting for the call, which when it came in was yet, in Mannion’s mind, oh shit another pass play when all my receivers have 20 people covering them. Maybe Mannion had the pressure thrown upon his shoulders because Riley stopped running the ball. Maybe, just maybe, if Riley would have continued running the ball he would have had time to settle down and get into a rhythm.
Riley’s fault they lost 100%. If your quarter back is having a bad night you run the ball or pull the QB. And if you are running the ball you cause more of the defense to play the run opening your pass game. Simple as that. But Riley has been and always will be one dimensional.
Maybe the problem was Del Rio was signaling the plays to Mannion, and they were all being signaled about 30 yards off target, making them hard for Mannion to receive.
Now that was funny!
Mannion didn’t start against Texas and only played one drive (which we scored a TD). Doesn’t disprove your point but I thought I’d point that out.
I’m not sure lack of big wins makes someone a bad QB just like a bunch of big wins doesn’t make someone a great QB. You say a great QB single handedly wins game (which Sean has done)… I’m curious who you’d point to as an example of that?
You say a great QB single handedly wins game (which Sean has done)… I’m curious who you’d point to as an example of that?
There are many pros who do it, but on the college level guys I’ve watched do it: Kellen Moore, Matt Leinart, Andrew Luck, etc. These are guys who never made decisions that lost games, and with the ball in their hands at the end of the game always seemed to win it. I realize Moore and Leinart are not good pros, but at the NCAA level that isn’t the objective. I also realize you can scrutinize numbers to make claims either way, so I’ll just say this: when the guy is a winner it stands out and even casual fans can recognize it. Mannion doesn’t have that, and I am not saying he should because it’s hard to find. What I am saying is that the media and coaches treat him like he does have it.
Fair enough… Mannion definitely looks really bad more than any of those guys (Luck is a transcendent talent) but all three of them had great supporting casts and coaches around them. I can get on board with saying Mannion isn’t a “great” QB but only because there aren’t that many great ones. I’d argue Mannion is better than Kellen Moore (he picked on weak teams also like you say Mannion does) but in the end it doesn’t matter. I think Sean is a very good but flawed QB who we’ll miss a lot when he’s gone.
I’ll also add: it’s these passing records that are clouding everyone’s judgement. Much of that is due to Mannion playing four years and Riley getting pass happy. I believe Matt Barkley had the record before that…was Matt Barkley a great QB? Hell no. But the media fell in love with him because he looked the part.
Supporting cast does matter. Brandin Cooks made Mannion look better than he is, for example. At the start of the season I wrote that I expected regression from Mannion for that very reason. We’re in agreement on that. Mannion’s only hope in the NFL is a great coaching staff and great WRs.
Yeah there’s so many factors to what makes a good QB. I think Sean has improved every season (obviously his numbers are down this year but his footwork and awareness seems improved) and if he keeps doing that he’ll get a chance. If Mike Glennon can be a semi-effective NFL QB, I think Sean can.
Appreciate the response. I don’t agree with all your opinions but I like your idea behind the site. There’s a lot that can be improved but I think all Beaver fans recognize it could be worse and there are pieces in place that we can work with. I’ll keep checking in here and there — thanks!
Barkley didn’t get the passing record until the ASU game his final year. Remember that shootout with Nikegon where he came within something like ten yards of Palmer’s record. Then he played ASU… and got hurt against UCLA in the next game and missed the last two games of his career.
Leinart was better than Mannion in three years in both yards and TDs. But it’s hard to say what he would have been without all the NFL WRs, NFL D, NFL championship coach and a couple Heisman contending (one winning… then not winning) and eventual NFL RBs.
Riley: Yeah, I think the No. 1 thing is to just to get back to coaching, teaching, trying to get the details ironed out. We’ve got to kind of balance our offense up a little bit and run the ball and throw the ball, obviously, better than we did in the last game. And it’s not just throwing it, it’s the whole passing game we’ve got to kind of detail out and do better with. So it’s just a matter of getting back to business. Sean is a great leader in a situation like this. He does a great job of just working. He has always been that guy. So, with that, we hope we get better and can execute better and have a better week.
Riley is addicted to the pass like a junkie to crack. Does this statement bother anyone else?