Home Football Oregon State @ Michigan Preview

Oregon State @ Michigan Preview

204

I think Gary Andersen summed this game up best, when he said the Beavers will leave Michigan knowing exactly how physical a team they are, and each player will know how physical they are, too. He said something like, “put your pants on or get run out of the stadium.” lol. Michigan is an old, mature team and they’re at home. This is some David and Goliath shit right here.

The defensive side of the ball looked physical last week, so I expect them to be fine, provided the Beav’s offense doesn’t put them in a bind. The offensive line needs to get more push. Period. Isaac’s mulligan card has been played. He has to go all out or sit. Josh Mitchell has a lot of Riley left in him, and he needs an exorcism, statim. The wide receivers need to do a better job blocking on the edge, too. Left some big plays out there last week on sweeps and wide plays because of soft blocking. Again, remnants of Riley. If the Beavs leave plays on the field this week they will lose.

The offense had a one step forward, two steps back rhythm last week. That’s an easy way to put your QB in a bind, which won’t end well on the road. Beavs can’t kill themselves with sloppy play and procedural and holding penalties. It’s probably the #1 factor in winning this game. #2 would be, as GA said, being extremely physical.

From the Beavs perspective, I think they need to put their corners on an island and use the other parts to cause as much disruption as possible. Based on what we saw of the MI QB last week, if he beats OSU’s corners 1 on 1, so be it, tip your hat, but he was a weakness, and the Beavs have to force him to win the game. Andersen beat this QB twice while at Wisconsin (last year he threw for 300 yards and 2TDs).

Andersen said he expects Michigan to try trick plays, double moves, and a physical run game. He seems to know this QB and knows what Harbaugh wants to do.

Keys to the game:

  • Can the Beavs get a ground game going between the tackles?
  • Force MI QB to win the game.
  • Eliminate the ghost of Riley (procedural penalties, holding calls, soft play).
  • Hit the big plays when they are there (this will be a test for Collins).
  • Baldwin needs to call a better game — can’t call a screen in your endzone. The play calling was rough, but I think that was to (a) give MI nothing and (b) baby Collins/MM. I expect a wide open playbook and more exciting offense this week, with more big play opportunity and more TE involvement.
  • When adversity strikes, which will probably  happen early in this game, they  have to be mentally tough and overcome it.

Regarding Collins and MM, I don’t want to get into that each week. For now it’s Collins, and that’s just the way it is. If he can throw the ball to the WRs at an acceptable clip, I’ll gladly back the guy and hope he leads OSU to victory. He definitely has the confidence (ignorance is bliss?) to win a game like this. I’d label him a wildcard in this game. I’m expecting a bad game passing, several INTs, but hoping for the best. But, Collins can go nuts for all I know and put up 400-500 total yards. Just don’t know enough at this point. Incomplete data set.

In summary, Michigan isn’t vintage, but they’re experienced, physical, and have Harbaugh. It’s going to be a battle, possibly a blood bath. My gut tells me: the Beavs have a shot if all goes perfectly and they hit every big play, have no penalties, mentally and physically are “up” for the game, etc, but realistically Michigan has everything in their favor.

27-13, Michigan

204 COMMENTS

  1. It took me too long to relocate the post on 247 Nebraska site but it cracked me up. Very close was this:

    “I have concerns about the offensive run/pass ratio we saw today. Considering all the 3rd and short situations and stable of backs at Riley’s disposal I was sure we would see a much more balanced attack and especially in the 4th quarter when playing with the lead. It seemed Langsdorf was picking plays at random and the couple runs we got late were fly sweeps instead of straight ahead to seal the win that one more first down would have guaranteed.”

    -those poor bastards

    As far as OSU vs Michigan expect OSU to hang close. I’ll go 24-20 Michigan as a prediction but OSU can swap that if Bolden holds onto a deep ball and it leads to an OSU touchdown at a critical stretch in the game. Regardless, the team will reap benefits from playing Michigan close. This is the kind of game that can lead to a couple close contests during the Pac-12 season falling in the Beavers’ Win column.

  2. I say 16-13. I’ll go with Mich to win but only due to homefield. Nothing I saw from the Wolverines other than Peppers and doin da Jake Butt impressed me. They did seem to stop anything did Utah tried to run up the middle. Hopefully some read option changes that. I expect this to be a low scoring defensive game. However, if the Beavs offense cannot move the chains, put up some points and is consistently going three and out? Well, duh. It could get ugly and quick

  3. Looking like weather will not be a factor Saturday morning. Chance of thunderstorms in the Ann Arnor area Friday afternoon. Forecast low Friday night of 50degrees and partly cloudy and high of 66 Saturday. Outside the occasional errant t-storm, no real significant weather in forecast.

  4. Beavs should cover the spread at least. The 15pt spread seems high.

    I don’t think they need to play a perfect game or the game of their lives, just a solid game. Michigan was picked to be 4th in their division. AND it’s probably not a stretch for Michigan to be overlooking OSU. I’m sure their opinion of OSU is low and the spread is confirming it. Andersen is right about the physicality. If OSU can hit Michigan in the mouth early, they’ve got a good shot.

    Wilson had some good runs and Collins appears to be a better runner. So there may be some opportunity there.

  5. From what i saw last week it appeared MMM never got a fair shake. It appears all the talk about two QBs was only to keep SC focused. If you ask me the kid is a total Primadonna. The kid wears huge diamond earrings under his helmet.

    I know this has nothing to do with the Michigan analysis, sorry for being off topic. I just wanted to get my thoughts out.

    I agree with Angry’s assessment though, if EVERYTHING goes perfect the Beavs sneak out with a win. I don’t think that will happen, as it’s going to take 2-3 years to clean the Riley from the locker room. 35-13 UM. Our defense only gives up 17 on sustained drives, but our O fucks them over classic Riley style with poor line play (looking at you #50) and gives up short fields turning into easy points.

  6. Re uniform choices: has anyone ever been to a game at the big house? When i went to the Penn State game, I couldn’t believe how poor of a choice the all white was. The typical happy valley white out made deciphering our players from the sidelines and field of vision extremely difficult. And I had great seats. I’m really hoping more insightful thought goes into choices this week.

  7. Watching the press conference from today, GA was asked if he had reached out to any of his colleagues on the Utah coaching staff about Michigan. Only thing he stated is he talks to at least one member of the Utah coaching staff at least once a week no matter what time of the year it is. Also there is some familiarity with Michigan players as GA coached against them twice the last two years. Different coaching staff, yes. Same players, yes. Is Michigan the veteran team? Yes. It is certainly an intriguing match up in my book

    • my bad. I had not watched the entire press conference all the way through before posting. GA did not play Michigan in either of his two years in Madison.

  8. Hm…I’m going 14-10 Beavers. It’ll be a defensive slugfest that leaves everyone exhausted, but breakout games by Woods and Brown will be the difference.

  9. 31-17 Beavs. We are better than last years team already. Last years team 2OT loss to Utah who has beaten Michigan two years in a row. Michigan is overrated and we are hungry

  10. I was thinking about this mantra we’ve all heard spewed for the last 9 months.

    Players make plays
    Players win games

    I’ve heard some folks are not ok with that statement. But after thinking about it, I am totally fine and actually agree with it. It’s the coaching staff’s job to put the players into position to make plays and win games. It’s up to the players actually do it if the coaching staff does their job. Disagree if you wish, but I actually like it after thinking about it. It makes everyone accountable. Coaches do their job to put players into a position to be successful. After that, it’s up to the players.

    • it’s not the same as Riley and Co. blaming the players for some ambiguous difficult scheme that the coaches think they just can’t understand… or just generally not executing… for years on end. It’s a statement that when they succeed it will be about the players. It’s not as if Pollyanna wrote it to deflect from the coaches before some trying game tests our patience.

      Everyone knows the coaches aren’t out on the field. That has to be one of the most tired excuses in the history of sport. You can see Huskerfan start to make that excuse now, planting the seeds of future Riley statements parroting their lowered expectations. You can see how a Banker secondary reverts to losing the ball and being out of position now that Rod Perry is gone. You’ll soon see teams running stop routes against them, gathering in three or four (or more) PI calls per game. You’ll see some of their fans realize that the pass/run balance isn’t really 55/45… that four sacks, taking three knees with a minute left in the first half, going three and out on three or four successive drives to end a game you should have won by 20 but only won by four… and the fly sweep… that dear old fly sweep… all of those make a 70/30 pass/run ratio look more like 55/45.

      They’ll understand that their “better players” can’t possibly be as bad as they look. They’ll wonder why pass-pro is decent but the run blocking looks like a three-foot seawall in a five foot tide. That can’t simply be a matter of players not executing, they will realize. There will come a time when many of them realize the system itself is flawed beyond correction. And then they will realize that it’s not just flawed. It’s stuck there and not going anywhere because that’s the way, uh huh, uh huh, Mike likes it, uh huh, uh huh.

      And then Huskerfan will see another schism where the friends of the nicest guy in football say those who took the blue pill are just crazy weirdos who don’t like NU… and that taking anything but the red pill proves it.

  11. The only advantage I see OSU’s offense having over Utah’s is a faster QB. Not sure if that can be leveraged, although I would be very spooked about injury to Collins. OSU might have better receivers, but it sounds like the QBs have trouble getting it to them, and I think Michigan will successfully bring pressure. I don’t think OSU is going to run the ball on Michigan.

    Meanwhile, I’m guessing OSU’s D will be stout for about the first 2.5 quarters, but then start to wear down after the offense keeps putting them back on the field. The big X factor is whether UM’s QB will improve in week 2, at home, and hit the broad side of a barn. If so, no chance for OSU.

    Michigan is going to jacked for their first home game under Harbaugh, and OSU is going to the big house starting a freshman QB. Also, the damn 12 pm Eastern start times are unfairly early for west coast teams. There is almost no bright spot to this game for OSU.

    30-6 Michigan; hopefully no injuries

  12. Red zone woes continue against a stout MI defense. 4 FGs from possible Lou Groza winner Garret Owens helps get the Beavs to 19. Big plays for MI at home give them 31. Beavs cover but the inability to score TDs in the red zone does them in. Teaching moment. MI 31 – 19.

    • I’m glad you brought up the redzone offense being the key. I hadn’t seen it come up yet, and that was a focus in fall camp. That’s what this game will come down to. Field goals won’t cut it.

    • I’ll take 4 or 5 FGs per game this year. That means we’re moving it between the 20s or the D is doing good stuff… or both. It’s not going to win many games, but it will keep us in some with one or two additional plays being the difference in the end. Slow and steady without mistakes works for me right now.

  13. I think it’s easy to predict what Harbaugh is going to try to do this Saturday on offense. Harbaugh is going to challenge his guys to bulldoze the Beavers with MIchigan’s power running game (up the middle & off-tackle), and to ram the ball down OSU’s throat, over and over. I think Peko et al. can hold their ground against Michigan’s O-line. If not, the game will be over early. But if we can stand up to Michigan’s power running game, and tackle solidly against Michigan’s big backs, we can make things interesting.

    On defense, Michigan is big and strong, but they don’t look super fast up front. They do have a big play defender in safety/nickel Jabrill Peppers (who was all over the field against Utah, esp. in the second half). Harbaugh’s strategy on defense will likely be the obvious one — shut down the run, contain Collins in the pocket, and test Collins’ ability to read defenses and make downfield throws. If OSU can’t run the ball at all against Michigan, the game — again — will be over early. But I think OSU’s O-line will play better than last week, and that we will be able to run the ball a little, to keep Michigan’s defense honest. Nonetheless, OSU is not going to grind out long drives against Michigan. Our best chance to move the ball downfield and to score will be on big plays (hitch-and-go passes to WRs, circle routes down the sidelines, quick slants to our speed guys, broken plays where Collins takes off downfield, bubble screens where a defender misses a tackle, even the occasional trick play). Of course, the WRs have to hang on to the ball, but I think they’ll do better this week in that area. I also expect we’ll see OSU try more passes over the middle this week, to take advantage of Michigan’s lack of speed at linebacker.

    As others have said, the deck is stacked against the Beavs this Saturday in multiple ways. But there are a few things working in OSU’s favor. The biggest one, I think, is that Michigan’s confidence is still a bit fragile after the past few years (and after the opening loss to Utah). And while Michigan is not going to overlook the Beavers, I do think Michigan is underestimating OSU (partly because we showed so little last week against Weber State — which I suspect was by design, to keep Michigan in the dark about some of our capabilities).

    Jake Rudock, Michigan’s QB, looked particularly shaky last week. If the Beavs can stop Michigan’s power running game early (before getting worn down), and confuse and pressure Rudock with blitzes, maybe Rudock throws another pick early. If that happens, Rudock could hang his head (and who knows how long Harbaugh sticks with him then). Gary Andersen knows quite a bit about Rudock’s strengths and weaknesses (Rudock lost to Wisconsin in 2013 and 2014), and is in a good position to help design schemes that will confuse and pressure Rudock this Saturday.

    On the other side of the ball, the Beavs do have a number of guys with big-play potential. A few big plays early in the game by Collins/Villamin/Bolden/Lucas could provide a boost for the confidence of OSU’s young team, while shaking the confidence of Michigan. This could also help quiet down Michigan’s huge home crowd (which is expecting Michigan to steamroll OSU in Harbaugh’s home opener; if OSU opens up an early lead, the crowd may get uncomfortable quickly).

    If OSU can stand up to Michigan in the trenches in the first half, and deliver a few big plays early, I think OSU has a puncher’s chance this Saturday. Yes, it’s a longshot, but I think there is a legitimate basis for hope.

    Go Beavs!

    • We keep hearing OSU kept the playbook vanilla so Harbaugh can’t watch film, etc. All he has to do is watch Baldwin film or Utah State film, though, and I’m sure he has. Maybe OSU has some different wrinkles, but it will be similar to all that.

      Rudock was missing wide open guys, so if we assume he hits them this week, that’s another wildcard. It’s not like Utah was shutting them down — he was just missing, and sometimes not even under pressure. But if we look at his stats from last year, he was efficient/good, so was the Utah game the norm or a fluke?

      • I see it as a fluke. College players tend to play better at home when they are in a comfortable environment.

        Looking at Rudock’s splits from 2014. He was significantly better at home than the road.
        http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/splits/_/id/518380/year/2014/jake-rudock

        However it didn’t make a whole lot of difference in terms of wins/losses.
        4-3 at home, 3-2 at home.

        At a quick glance of 2014 game results, it looks he benefits greatly when he has a strong running game. When it’s poor and he’s forced to pass, his team loses. He’s not mobile so it appears on paper that stuffing the run might be a significant indicator of the outcome of the game.

        • It sounds like both Ds will be loading the box, and the QB who can make some big plays here or there with the least mistakes will win the game?

      • The game’s I have watched from Baldwin at CSU he ran a lot of pistol and actually ran some Power and other plays I have not seen since he has been here (from Spring till now). When Baldwin first got here he actually said, our “O” would look most like UCLA’s in terms of formations/plays/etc.

        Rudock never found rhythm last week and if Sitake can create enough pressure to keep him out of a comfort zone, we have that same possibility (overthrows, picks, etc). If guys do their job on defense and our DBs don’t bite on run fakes/screen-goes, when they’re covering deep third or halves or quarters, Michigan should not get any big passing plays on us. They do have one receiver that should get our DBs out of their back pedals really quick but just stay deeper than the deepest and we’ll be ok. Michigan likes to throw that one step hitch/one step jab screen a lot (it’s very ineffective when they actually throw to that receiver) but to me, it’s just trying to bait an overzealous DB to blow their assignment to come up and try to make a play and then they’ll come back with hitch and go or the slot runs a wheel route. One guy in our secondary I’m a little worried about here is C N Lewis. He gets aggressive for one but he was also sloppy last game (whiffed on two possible sacks-completely missed the QB). If our secondary keeps everything in front of them and just bend but don’t break on D, we’ll have an opportunity to win this game. I do think our offense is gonna get bitched around a bit though (hate to say it).

        Go Beavs!

  14. Is GA (excuse me, I should have said DB) going to start off with SC in shotgun or under center?

    Better chance of getting off plays in shotgun, i.e. more time to read the D, etc?

    • i think there’s more and more social media, which makes this stuff easier to find, and may also entice people to do bad things just to get noticed.

      • It’s probably both of those things. I also read the latest generation of kids has the most psychologist disorders/depression ever. The article (psychology today) claimed it wasn’t due to over diagnosing.

        I think social media has exposed the massive latent narcissism in everyone, and when they don’t get that narcissistic fix, all bets are off, and the behavior becomes more extreme.

        In the case of this band, you’d assume the person in charge of the band is an adult, so it’s probably just emotional rage we always see in sports.

        • If you visit the KSU sbnation blog there was a good post with more info about the incident and why it wasn’t intentional. I wish it was intentional. I want it to be intentional!

    • I’m thinking the kids hitting the ref is an outlier. I’ve certainly seen nothing like it before. And the only “rationalization” for their actions is that a couple of their friends were ejected in the play prior? You just have to wonder what was going through their heads.

      The band formation? I call one big whatever on that one. Boo hoo! Some people project their own take and make an issue out of the straw man. Whatever. It’s not as bad as a visiting band pumping out tunes as soon as the home band starts one of their own, drowning them out. We now give these kids a reason to whine when someone makes even the slightest edgy comment about them. While there was intention to prod a rival, there was no intention to be obscene, making the context innocent and the whiners the antagonists. It’s appropriate for the band leader to apologize for putting his band in that position no matter how innocent. But he doesn’t need to apologize for trying to do what people are taking away from it in their own minds.

      • Sticking a dick in the opponent’s mascot’s mouth is bad sportsmanship, no matter how you want to spin it. I’m in the 1% of least prude dudes and even think it’s hilarious, but it’s awful sportsmanship.

        I’d also put this in the bad sportsmanship category, if a fan can have bad sportsmanship. But at least it’s bad behavior…and why? To release teenage girl emotions and get on twitter?

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyjO1ZDPg6c

        • Agreed, everyone learned in elementary school to shake hands and say “good game” not pantomime rude shit to the opposing team. it doesn’t matter whether its sexual in nature or not, its bad sportsmanship for sure.

        • Yes. If that was the intention, it is poor lots of stuff. It would deserve much more scrutiny than it is getting if it was intentional.

          But that wasn’t the intention. That’s what people see for themselves due to the original idea being a bad one itself because the guy never thought of it himself. He needed to apologize for not thinking of all that could go wrong, a lack of vision. But what people saw was in their own heads, not his. That’s a straw man.

          Now, if it comes out that the issue was brought up beforehand, and he went ahead and did it anyway, then I think we can derive intent.

          I would be more upset that our band put our rival’s logo on our field in any context. Can you imagine the photo edits that can (and probably will in this case) be made and distributed? Captions about how the KSU band just wants to go to KU? Captions about jealousy? Any number of captions will be created. I would go bonkers if our band made an O in the shape of the track at Hayward Field on the inside and in the shape of not Autzen Stadium on the outside.

        • As a former teenage girl, and a parent to teenage boys, I’m gonna have to say that behavior is more teenage boy than teenage girl. But I suppose the sentiment remains.

          • Haha. Well, when I see grown men whining about sports (I still have the 247 Nebraska board stuck in my head) I think of teenage girls getting overly emotional and whining about boys. But touche — that video is the student section and a mix of both genders.

    • I don’t care what anyone says, that looks nothing like a penis, and the band director shouldn’t have been suspended.

      And if that was somehow supposed to be a penis made by the band director, you would think he would’ve made it bigger than that.

  15. anybody else here not receiving new comments in their inbox anymore? stopped getting them sometime over the weekend. Now I just see new posts

  16. It’s definitely irrational, but I think we shed our years of ineptitude on national TV against big opponents, and we go in there and kick Michigan in the fucking teeth. Shades of UO/Mich in 2007. There just seems to be a different sense of confidence amongst the players; I don’t think they’re scared of the Big House.

    • Including all 7 of the SEC West teams. With 5 power conferences, you would think there’d be around 5 per conference and maybe Boise State sticking their head in there, with maybe 2 more for a strong conference taking away from a weaker conference. But 10 is insane.

      I’m sure this will all peter out as the season wears out though. Not too much to worry about.

      • No… at the end of the season a 7-5 ASU (who loses the Territorial Cup) will be ranked #15 in the country with a 10-2 Arizona unranked. Then SEC honks will tout the SEC because that’s another ranked opponent they beat in non-con.

        Wiscy, Louisville, UNC and probably Southern Miss will aso enjoy artificially high rankings in order to “strengthen” SEC schedules.

    • Who would you have replace them? I’d argue that 16-25 are interchangeable and that is where a majority of the SEC are ranked. I don’t like it either but I looked at the other receiving votes and I’m note sure who I’d replace them with. 5 out of the 7 pac12 teams that won week one are ranked. If asu and Stanford won the pac12 would have 7 teams ranked and the SEC have 9, which is why rankings this early in the year are a joke.

  17. I can’t recall OSU going into one of these big games/stages with a player in a leadership position who simply loves the big stage. Derek Anderson played pretty well at LSU, ‘Quizz ran well at Penn State but was used too late and wasn’t in a leadership position, and Riley should have played him earlier and he could have been sparking the team. Mannion last year looked like the LA Coliseum was the LAST place he wanted to be.

    I think Seth’s attitude is an asset in this game; he will LOVE, rather than be intimidated by the big stage. Watching highlights of last weekend’s game, I noticed after he hurdled that defender last Saturday he ran and posed conveniently in front of a cameraman; typical Seth. If he can get into the flow like he did in the second half last week, where his throwing improves (likely over-thinking it early), he will be having a blast and his teammates will feed off of him. His passing numbers and lack of INTs would have been impressive for a true FR but for a few key drops. Where normally, some of his antics irritate me, this game, his attitude is a plus and the polar opposite of say, Mannion @ USC 2014.

    Add in Andersen’s charge that the team needs to be aggressive in all phases, and I don’t expect the big game flatness that usually characterized Riley-coached teams. All of this energy helps offset the early start time.

    Conversely, regarding Ruddock, there’s on opportunity for OSU to capitalize on his frustration from last Saturday. Some interesting notes from Michigan media:

    He only threw 5 picks all of last year. His 3-INT game last week appears to be an anomaly;
    Ruddock was very upset after the game. Does he turn frustration into a positive in preparation this week, or can OSU capoitalize and force him into a poor mental/emotional condition with some early, quick turnovers next Saturday, because;

    He goes to the line with several play calls, has to read the D, then has to make the call. Can Sitake’s disguises, likely similar to Utah’s, fool him again? I suspect Sitake will look at what Utah did, play some similar-looking sets, but do different things out of them.

    Some interesting info:
    https://www.michigandaily.com/section/football/sportstuesday-column-rudock-michigan-wolverines-quarterback

    https://www.michigandaily.com/section/football/five-things-we-learned-utah

    https://www.michigandaily.com/section/football/good-bad-and-ugly-utah-24-michigan-17

    Seth thrives, Ruddock cries.

    Other factors:

    While Harbaugh has seen enough of OSU while at Stanford to know they were capable of (unpredictably) competitive play under Riley, I think the UM players will underestimate OSU’s D-line and LBs. As Utah did against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl when Andersen was D coordinator, OSU needs to go in, play fast, hit first, and keep hitting. Both first and second string OSU D players will prove effective and get at least one TO.

    OSU’s O-Line has to its potential otherwise a lot of opportunity is going to be left on the table. The most disappointing unit last week has to improve. Booker didn’t have great great YPC last week, Woods unlikely to do much better.

    Andersen hints at “challenging” players in a recent meeting; he’s appropriately asking for more this week in term so of physicality and execution:

    http://registerguard.com/rg/sports/33483190-81/oregon-state-shifts-focus-to-wolverines.html.csp

    I suggest f Woods isn’t breaking arm tackles or is running like he’s waiting to be caught, this is the time and place to get more carries to Brown and let his quickness be the complimentary threat to Collin’s running; get all the speed out there you can. It will surprise UM.

    TEs get used this week. Smith, watch the false starts in all of that noise. You’re a senior. Play like it.

    Bolden needs to see some pine. This is the second staff enamored with him, and like many, I don’t see why. Catching the ball in his body, dropping TD throws…this from a junior? There are other threats on the team with greater ability and about whom Michigan will know nothing – Jarmon, Guyton, Lucas. Collins/Brown/Guyton/Lucas is quite a bit of speed to have to deal with. Yes, they’re young, but if Andersen wants them to have a “great experience” in the big house, do it the best way possible; give them opportunity. Note in the R-G article above Andersen identifies the need to get the ball to the wideouts more this weekend.

    What happens? Collins loves the environment, Ruddock gets down on himself, OSU is quick to the punch and holds on with 3 TDs and 3 FGs providing a 30-24 victory.

    Later, UO loses by who cares how much, and some balance is restored to the Force.

    Why I could be so wrong:

    As a former QB, Harbaugh can get Ruddock back into his more typical, INT-free mode and work on the UM run game, re-establishing Ruddock’s confidence at home. Also, Harbaugh loves all the attention HE is going to get (first UM home game as HC, Sports Center in town, etc.), and takes the media burden off of Ruddock and the team; and

    UM capitalizes on Seth’s “vanity,” confusing him, spying him, teeing off on him, getting TO’s from him, and all of this is wrong leading to a decisive, grinding UM victory….

  18. What’s kinda funny about this game is both of these teams have some similarities. New QB (though there’s is a 5th year Sr.), New coaching staff, coming off of a disappointing season, they’re both young but do have some guys that have experience, both HCs are fiery and want to win badly. That being said, (and I mentioned this earlier) this is going to be a fist fight of a game. It will be very physical, not a lot of points (and I am not sure that we will score over 35 in any game this season), a lot of hard hitting, not a lot of flash. Whoever wins the LOS and the turnover battle will definitely be the victor. Some people call these games “ugly” or “defensive battles”. I prefer defensive battles. Defenses usually aren’t just stopping offenses with luck (usually- except for Cal, OMG two balls basically bounce off the receiver for INTs- gimme a break) anyway, this is usually preparation and guys using their good coaching to be in place to stop plays. In the end though, as I’ve said before, Michigan will walk out of that fight the victor but they will know who the Oregon State Beavers are and probably will respect them after that game. This is where I think this team will take a positive from this. That they went toe to toe with one of the most historic programs (win or lose) and held their own in their stadium. This will hopefully allow some of these younger guys to gain confidence. ‘Cuz when it comes down to it guys, this game (or any) is mostly mental, it’s a mindset (attitude). And once the Beavs establish the “I’m gonna fight every down, every play” mantra, I really think they will shock some teams. Who knows, maybe it will start this Saturday. I still say 21-10 Michigan (late) but still think it’ s possible the Beavs win. I’ve mentioned this before but BYU has something that have as well and that’s a couple 6’5″+ (tall) WRs. Keep the game close and you always have a chance.

    Go Beavs!

  19. Something I forgot to mention in my writeup: I expect a lot of uptempo in an attempt to wear out MI.
    MI struggled most with Utah when they went up tempo. Could make things interesting if the Beavs have ironed out their tempo issues.

  20. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1l2T3pgiHk1WKiNvQZUzWzWYR3Oo5HoBxrxcCbnl2LcY/edit#gid=27

    My power ratings sheet has been updated from the Week 1 Results.

    How to read:
    Scroll cursor all the way to the right. The W1-W14 etc columns indicate each team’s “line” for that week. So this week you should be looking at the numbers under the “W2” column, as it is, (duh) Week 2. A negative number indicates the team is an underdog and a positive number indicates the team is a favorite. The number posted is the computer’s predicted point spread (meaning it expects the favorite to at least tie that amount).

    Current Power is the basis for the power rankings, it shows the exact gap between each team.
    HF is Home Field Advantage and how much it adds to a team’s performance expectation.
    Sch STR is the average Current Power rating of the team’s entire scheduled opposition. (Schedule Strength).
    S R is the rank of said Schedule Strength

    Side Note:
    For those of you who would rather read an alphabetized version, google does something screwy when you try to sort it if you try to do it all at once. Sort every team except for the team at #1 and you can avoid this problem.

    Have fun perusing.
    This is updated weekly.

  21. I thiught you had Stanford too high after the lousy performance at NW. But then you have the Beavs 25 spots below Colorado. So obviously a work in progress? Good ratings really need at least 4 weeks to start to become more connected

    • I have four rankings right now:

      1. Teams that have beaten an FBS team.
      2. Teams that have not lost to any team but have not beaten an FBS team.
      3. Teams that have lost to an FBS team.
      4. Teams that have lost to an FCS team.

      There is zero objective data which separates any team within any of these groupings.

    • Stanford WAS in the top ten last week, as you can see they fell quite a ways. The computer reacts to the data from each week, and adjusts accordingly, it doesn’t overreact.

      Preseason data is an estimate no matter who you are, and yes, you’ll probably see more fluid rankings the further we get into the season. But as of right now, all we have is one game to adjust to. In the case of Stanford, the computer acknowledged they lost to an inferior team but also that the game was on the road, so they were not penalized as much as they would have been had they lost at home. Also, who knows? Northwestern may actually turn out to be decent this year. The ratings respond to hard data and nothing else, which is why I like to use them.

      In the case of Colorado: they dropped about twenty spots for losing at Hawaii, but they still played an FBS team. Oregon State hasn’t proven to the computer enough yet as they “struggled” against a FCS opponent that was 2-10 last year. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves yet. I am sure you will see OSU climb with a good performance this week, definitely if they find a way to win.

  22. I love the headline for the AP’s write up of our game:
    “Next Hurdle for Beavers QB Seth Collins? The Big House”

    Hurdlemania is spreading.

    • I’m bullish on the over 4 line for the season but no idea about this game…Before the season began I penciled Michigan as a loss, now, who knows??

      The optimist in me thinks the game will be closer than 16 and possibly a win, the Riley effect/black cloud says this thing gets out of control.

    • The Las Vegas line never reflects actual game predictions. People are always confusing this. The line reflects the bias of the degenerate gamblers, of which apparently more bias Michigan. Las Vegas makes money when bets are placed evenly on both sides. The line moves to tempt the degenerates to change their stubborn bias views.

  23. There seems to be an assumption that Michigan has a significant size and strength advantage in the trenches. From a quick analysis of the rosters, it looks like Michigan’s starting linemen are slightly taller and heavier, but not by much (e.g., for the O-line, on average, maybe an inch or two on height, and five to ten pounds on weight). If Michigan has an advantage here, it’s only a small one. The war in the trenches on Saturday will probably not be determined by size and strength, but more by conditioning, effort, attitude, and technique. “Who wants it more” — and who competes harder and longer — are going to count for a lot.

    Under Riley and Banker, I have little doubt that we would give up first, and that Harbaugh and Michigan would end up imposing their will on us. Under Andersen and Sitake, I think we have a new and more competitive mindset, and therefore have a chance to stand up to Michigan in the trenches, and even perhaps to win the smash-mouth battle this Saturday. It’s an important test, and it is going to tell all of us (including Gary Andersen and his staff) a lot. Go Beavs!

    • I searched the thread for the words size and strength and nothing came up. Do you mean other websites?

      Probably because MI is much older, so there’s an assumption those older guys are stronger. GA alluded to this as true, too.

      • Yes, Michigan’s linemen are also somewhat more experienced (and older) than their Beaver counterparts. But the Beavers have a number of big, strong, mature linemen, too. Again, the experience/age differences — overall — are probably not great enough to determine who wins the battle of the trenches this Saturday. In past years, OSU has sometimes been overmatched and overwhelmed up front against bigger, stronger teams. Contrary to what Las Vegas and some posters seem to think, I don’t believe that’s the case against Michigan this Saturday. Instead, it’s going to be more about who competes harder and longer, assuming more or less equivalent physical capabilities. I am hopeful that Andersen and his staff are going to have the Beavers more ready to compete than many people expect. We’ll find out soon….

        • People are basing it on MI’s lines looking pretty good vs a physical Utah team, and OSU’s O-line looked iffy vs Weber State, too. Which is fair. But line play changes game to game and football doesn’t have a transitive property. This is a mistake many people make. (e.g. Think OSU 2008 vs USC where Remmers was suddenly dominating).

          • You probably need to watch that game again if you think it was him who did that on the right side. Levitre, Speer, Linnenkohl and Peat? Sure. I remember James running a lot of fly sweep fakes right into Griffen’s chest as well as a slew of TEs platooning on that side.

          • In Remmers-World it was great. But it wasn’t more than serviceable. I remember re-watching that game a couple years back, and he was called out after an actual great block by the announcers in the first half. So I went back and watched our play on O to see if he was playing a helluva game or whatever they said. He wasn’t. He had help on almost every block, and those he didn’t have help on he either got beat or the play had nothing to do with his assignment (and there really wasn’t a block to be made). Often he would just help Speer on Moala, or he would double with the TE to the outside. A lot of the outside plays were just him meandering around looking for someone to block.

            The sweet irony is that he got called out for playing great, and Speer got called for a false start on one of the next plays.

      • Yes, Michigan also has more and better depth, especially on the O-line. Having already lost Gavin Andrews for the season, if the Beavers lose another O-line starter, OSU will probably be in trouble this Saturday. RS Fr Kammy Delp is probably the best of the OSU second stringers (and the only one who might be able to hold his own this Saturday). The remainder of the second-string O-line would likely be overmatched against Michigan (Robert Olson, Sosaia Tauaho, Mason Johnson, Will Hopkins). Fingers crossed that these guys don’t get thrust into key roles this Saturday.

          • I’m still not convinced that Isaac is 100%.

            The theory that big guys have better luck against other big guys than against smaller (quicker?) opponents makes sense. Has anyone looked at the difference between Weber and MI to know if this may bode well for Isaac and the rest of the OL this Saturday?

    • I think you agree with the original post you are just confusing what was meant by “physical”.

      Example my 6 year old is 4’8″ and weights 85 pounds, he has “significant size and strength advantage” over any other 1st grader I’ve ever seen, but is he is a teddy bear and isn’t as “physical” as some of his friends and get over powered when wrestling because he doesn’t have the “effort, attitude, and technique”

  24. Anyone know the story on Will Hopkins? I wouldn’t mind seeing him get a shot if the line can’t get a push. The guy is big and strong, and ex Air Force academy you have to think he is tough minded and disciplined, too. Looks like he is currently behind Stanton, who looked mediocre last week.

    Anyone at the scrimmages or practices have word on this guy and where he is at?

    • Further blasting Riley’s regime into the ground. These guys want to be inolved in the program, but nobody thought before to make that effort.

      • “CORE VALUES
        I’m so glad the lines of communication with the program and the school are more open for me now. One of the best things about that has been coming to realize that a lot of the things I value fall in line with the beliefs of the people at the forefront of the program now.”

        Yeah, Riles is sooo well respected.

    • I love reading “we have to do away with that underdog mindset, and approach everything we do as members of the Oregon State football program from a more confident place.”
      Exactly this. No more “giant killers”, just build a good football program.

    • Suzy Hotrod??? Uhhhh Not only the name but the tooos :-)

      Sorry Steven, I’m a big fan of yours but I just couldn’t help but comment.

      • Yeah, what is it with Harbaugh lately? Is he off of some of his meds? He was the same way with the Cowherd interview. I look at the way he talks and acts sometimes and I wonder how he could coach anybody. Is it part of his “schtick” with the media?

        • I tried listening to that Cowherd interview, but I just got steamed at the questions and turned it off. He started off in his whiny voice, “I want know something… if you’re cotton candy and a bear is attacking Goldilocks, what do you say to gran’ma?” … or something equally inane. It was like he wanted to play Madlibs instead of talk football. I’m pretty sure Cowherd knows Harbaugh doesn’t talk anything outside of football except for Bo, his dad and khakis.

          While I’m sure it went on to be the train wreck I heard it was, some responsibility has to be taken by the guy who took him out of the interview.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here