Where are all the Seth Collins Backers?

I think the economy is weak and what we have is a situation where the govt releases good jobs numbers yet doesn’t talk about the quality of the jobs. Bad jobs, part-time jobs, and seasonal jobs carry the same weight as a job that pays 500k in silicon valley. A job is a job, according to the statistics, and the media eats it up and reports that all is well. Treating all jobs the same skews job reports and gives a false picture of health. Money velocity is a better sign of health, and it’s at very low levels.

So what happens?

We have asset bubbles everywhere that want to pop, yet governments won’t let them. Eventually they will pop, but the question is when, and I don’t know b/c it depends (a) what govts do next and (b) if investors buy those “solutions”. My gut says not for a while because people continually fall for it, but it’s a confidence game, so who knows.

My best guess is we’ll see more of the same. “The trend is your friend” is the Wall St axiom, and the large trend is Central Banks take turns printing money and it drives up assets around the globe. Dow is down like 10% and people are freaking, but that’s barely correction territory. Any good investor knows 10% corrections are healthy and normal.

My guess is stocks might drop a little, and if they do, QE4/infinity will happen this year and assets will continue to rise once that happens. Thus, I’d hold, which is what I’m doing. Until all that, we’ll probably see down days followed by violent short squeezes upward and just increased volatility…rinse repeat until QE4. If we get a good correction, like 30-50%, which is what we need, buying would be wise [because p/e and future returns would be more in line with fundamentals], but not at 10% or even 20%. Regarding whether to sell, personal call and really is a matter of how much pain you can take. You want to sleep well at night first and foremost.

And on cue, my fiancee got laid off this morning, in this booming economy.