Has anyone been able to pull the complete Washington injury list? That might help in picking the game. Right now I’m thinking Washington should be +15 favorites. But if key guys will be out that can change.
I watched a lot of the Utah game. Washington looked physical, but not as physical as Utah, and Utah really banged up their team. Eason had a terrible habit of rolling opposite the pocket and then throwing against his body. I’m not sure if he always does this, but it made me view him more negatively. Also, Peterson was making some coaching errors. I’m not sure what’s going on there, but they didn’t look like the team I saw earlier this year.
Still, the Beavs lack depth, and if Washington plays physical that’s what I see as the big difference here. I’ll still go +15 for now, but we’ll see what the injury report says. I get that everyone is high on the Beavs due to some nice road wins, and I like what I’m seeing, but there’s a difference between beating backup QBs and bottom half teams and beating Washington. Until I see them take that step, I can’t expect or predict it. I’m thinking more realistic is we see a 2 step forward (Cal, AZ), one step back (WA) situation play out.
Washington 35, OSU 20
Without Fuller, UW’s only receiving threat with any significant production is their TE, who’s the top receiving TE in the conference. Off the top of my head, I can’t think of anyone we have that could cover that position effectively, and Stanford’s TE has burned us the last two years so that’s not a matchup I feel good about.
If we keep the safties conservative it should keep a TE from having huge plays. That said we’re probably wide open for 7-12 yard slants and hooks without a great cover backer. I would give Morris TE duty all night, big body that hits hard, history of breaking up passes and ints. TE cuts are easier in his foot than wideouts.
Agree on a healthy Morris being able to cover TE duty. Doesn’t sound like he’s ever going to be actually healthy:
“We’ve kind of gotten to a point where my foot’s going to be like forever messed up and I’m going to have pain no matter what,” Morris said last Wednesday, a few days after getting the start in a 21-17 win at California.
“It’s definitely manageable,” he added. “I had adrenaline, too, so I wasn’t really too focused on it. After we won and I settled down that’s when I was like OK I feel it.”
That doesn’t sound good.
Yeah, front that description he has tendon damage or needs his foot broken again to heal correctly.
Ronnie Lott would just cut it off.
TE doesn’t necessarily need huge plays. If they can pick up 10-12 yard chunks down the field and run on us…well, that’s the Stanford formula.
Shhhhhh. I’m hoping they can’t run the ball at will.
He kind of had a shitty game against Zona.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/washington/2019.html
Sports reference keeps really good injury reports, just scroll down a bit. With the injuries I think the Dawgs best move is to run it down our throats and use play action effectively to open up TE and WR. Id lobe to see us keep using the bend but don’t break but let the rush backers really pin their ears back. Would be a great game for Whittley to consistently disrupt the pocket.
It looks like an easier game than it did week 1 but if we play good we’re in trouble. Need a great game for a win. Smith knows Peterson well and knows that system, might be able to take advantage of that with the better talent this year. 31-24 UW. Hayes makes a fg!
Daschel picked us to win for what that’s worth.
Is this current for the Beavs? Found on the same sports-reference site. Kyrei I know had been playing. I’m wondering how current this is. I thought Eldridge was healthy again.
Murray Out Foot Hughes-Murray is expected to miss and extended period due to a foot injury.
Nathan Eldridge Out Ankle Eldridge has been sidelined due to an ankle ailment, and it is unknown when he will next be available to play.
Kyrei Fisher Out Eligibility Fisher is dealing with an eligibility matter and will not be available for the 2019 season.
Jeromy Reichner Out Knee Reichner tore the ACL in his knee and has been ruled out of the entire 2019 season.
Shemar Smith Questionable Ankle Smith missed the last game with an ankle injury, and it is unknown if he will play in Friday’s clash against Washington.
Kolby Taylor Questionable Undisclosed Taylor is battling an undefined injury, and it is undetermined if he will be in Friday’s lineup against Washington.
Jesiah Irish Questionable Leg Irish is dealing with a leg injury, and it is uncertain if he will be available Friday versus Washington.
Trevon Bradford Questionable Foot Bradford is bothered by a foot injury, bringing his status for Friday’s tilt against Washington into question.
Jermar Jefferson Questionable Ankle Jefferson has an ankle injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against Washington on Friday.
Most of those guys were questionable, but played against UA, so I’m assuming they’re good for Friday.
It’s not 100%. Gumbs isn’t on it for the beavs either. It’s usually available on Sunday though. Official lists from the school don’t come out until right before the game usually.
So, after my lofty prediction for Arizona becoming the halftime score, I’m going to go ahead and do a lofty prediction for OSU vs. Washington, and I’m sure it will be completely wrong.
This is the game. Coach Smith has to know this is one that could be a signature win against his old program, and I believe he is enough of a nerd to have a pretty good on the offensive X’s, O’s and personnel of Washington, since he worked with them. I believe the intelligence and Tibesar’s continued improvement on coaching the D will make enough stops to keep things interesting.
To me, it seems the offense is utilizing more of the other players, and I have a feeling this is the game that Smith tells Lindgren to hit them with everything including the kitchen sink, and with the Huskies top wideout potentially out, I think they have luck containing the TE, and hopefully our guys slow the run game down more.
I think OSU wins it close 28-24.
What this comes down to is that our team is built in the image of U-Dub and they have a four year head start. Overall talent is superior, but with a lot of injuries. Prior to the season, this seemed to be a sure fire blow out loss. Strange stuff has happened. Beavs have to feel good about themselves and the Dogs have to be severely disappointed. They were potential CFB picks pre season. Hopefully the teacher vs pupil does not cause JS to go stupid aggressive like he did early in last years CW. If we can control the clock with the running game and limit the amount of time our D is on the field, I think we might have a shot at the upset.
A lot does need to go right to win.
Run JJ and AP early and often to get into short 3rd downs and opportunities to convert 4th downs too. 35-40 carries between the both of them will be a good sign. JJ looked explosive in his runs sat.
@Bill I agree with the run idea. Use the offense as a defense to keep husky’s off the field and break any rhythm. The husky’s have scored points against the “good” defenses in the conferences. Their defense is much better than ours so a shootout isn’t a good sign in my opinion.
Any injury update on Pierce or Hodgins? Maybe that information comes out today.
Looking at stats from UW’s season, I’m having a hard time finding a specific weakness. There’s possibly a correlation between their OL allowing more pressure and Eason making more mistakes derailing the offense a bit, but they’ve won games where the running game stepped up and bailed him out.
They seem to just be inconsistent. Maybe they’re not pyschologically tough? They’ve had a really favorable schedule and lost their only semi-tough road game (Stanford). That should give us a small boost in a Friday night game at Reser with UW’s hopes and dreams now officially flushed down the toilet.
Is there a Husky blogger we can do an exchange program with?
Look at easons splits by quarter.
I think that reinforces the psychological toughness theory.
With the improvement we’re seeing on defense, it would be nice to see us punch the ball out of the Husky’s hands on more than one occasion this week. We’re getting batter at getting to the ball carrier before huge gains, but the opposition has still been able to sustain long drives. If we could create a turnover or 2, I like our chances. But without the turnovers, we’ll need to be pretty efficient offensively to make it a game.
The Beavs also need to limit their defensive penalties, but at the same time, the refs need to watch for opponents holding, hands to the face, etc. I saw at least 1 hands to the face no call on Arizona, 1 clear holding no call by Arizona where an OSU defender was being laid on by an Arizona lineman, and plenty of flops by Arizona players. Pac-12 officiating is so lopsided and inconsistent.
Angry, it seems to be a new issue with the subscription process every time a new thread is started.
I’ve been getting this auto-reply after tring to confirm my subscription of the last few posts.
Contact / Donate
I think he is trying to send you a hint :)
I’m wondering if I’m the only one here who ever uses this function?
To me, it’s the easiest way to keep up on the posts from others throughout the day. Otherwise people’s earlier replies get buried and I rarely go back through the full thread to read them.
I just scroll through quickly. I don’t like getting loads of emails haha
Can you try now?
Test
Looks like it’s working again. Thanks!
That’s what she said.
Luton getting draft buzz!
https://t.co/xk70DqXbAb
Apparently he’s one of the top QB’s in the country at “clean-pocket passing,” which correlates strongly with NFL success (on par with Herbert and Eason).
Oh boy…
Side note, I was reading how Mariota is solid under pressure but has atrocious clean pocket numbers. I mean it makes sense clean pocket numbers are more important considering the vast majority of the time that is what a QB throws from. Still doubt Luton does much in the NFL but another backup in the league from Backup QB-U would be cool.
Oh boy indeed. Someone is in for a big disappointment.
This is hilarious “In Luton’s case, we don’t believe it’s an issue whatsoever. He’s quite athletic for his size, clearly moves around the pocket with ease and is not just a strong-armed gunner who checks off the physical boxes.”
Moves around in the pocket with ease? Ha ha. “Strong armed gunner”? Ha ha. His worst two traits probably. His best trait is the 10 yard route. And do they realize he can’t throw a spiral? The two best college D’s he played he was atrocious, too. Yikes for some franchise.
LOL was in the middle of writing about the spiral below when you must’ve wrote this….too funny. Is the non-spiral ball on purpose to help receivers catch the ball side-ways? Worble ball baby!!
I watched him throwing on the sideline. I can throw a better spiral.
I’ve been hearing from sources close to a source the Jets will move Darnold in the off season to make room for Luton.
Funny. That might actually be an upgrade.
I don’t know why people keep falling for USC QBs…
I believe the exact quote was “he’s not just a strong-armed gunner.” No, he’s certainly not.
Still, I’m rooting for the guy. It can only help the program to have our guys get some buzz. Could he be worse than Mitch Trubisky?
I was glad to see Saturday that Luton could finally hit a wide open receiver in stride on a shallow crossing route. He used to throw behind them.
Draft buzz is hilarious. NFL GMs are not immune to height, stats, or buzz.
It is good for the program, so buzz away, as long as it isn’t a distraction for Luton.
Should read: “one of the top QB’s in the country when facing a caliber of defenders the NFL does not employ…”
Just scanned it. They identify Luton AND Hodgins as “sleepers,” which seems absurd given Hodgins’ notoriety. Apparently NFL scouts “flocking to Corvallis” to check them both out…
Hodgins is a sleeper because no scout has watched a Beaver game. If Hodgins played East of the Rockies he wouldn’t be a fucking sleeper.
Luton’s motion creates a worble ball, he threw a real bad one to Togiai on a ~12 yarder — the worble is like a lame duck pass but with a lot more zip. Usually you only see them on long-bombs, but Luton has created his own type of ball on the mid-range passes. At least he was accurate with it. Hell it could’ve been on purpose, to “help” Togiai, sometimes if the spiral is too tight it might squirt threw his hands? Luton might be more purposeful than we think ;)
Wtf? Really? Sounds like ur the one who created ur own pass.
I see we’ve offered a JUCO quarterback.
https://247sports.com/Player/Chance-Nolan-46040283/
Depth offer
Next year is the year Smith needs to land a big time QB recruit. Would be in line to start after Gebbia graduates.
Gulbranson? Or are we thinking he isn’t “it”
The Riley philosophy was to bring in a QB every year so you always have competition, hopefully an experienced backup, and cover if someone transfers. I think we’re off the pace right now. Next year we’ll have:
Senior
None
Junior
Gebbia, Willard
Sophomore
None
Freshman
Gulbranson
So Nolan makes four, and you have to think Willard’s status is a bit iffy.
>So Nolan makes four, and you have to think Willard’s status is a bit iffy.
Yeah, I’d guess he may be encouraged to have a look elsewhere.
We’ve also got the two walkons for extra depth (Jackson Chryst and Nick Moore). One more serviceable guy does seem necessary. Olive says we’re either looking JUCO or graduate transfer.
Moore is Matt’s younger brother that’s supposed to be impressing an well as chryst is Paul’s son and former Stanford QB that I forgot the name.
Also, I’m not thrilled by Gulbranson after re-watching his film. Accuracy is questionable. I see a lot of passes that should be intercepted, but somehow aren’t. His skill set is not on the same level as Gebbia’s.
Current year stats:
55% completion
29 TD
12 INT
Fun fact: same completion percentage as Willard’s (injury-shortened) senior season.
@Cake. I’m sorry did you just reference the fishwrap?
Why would Gulbranson look elsewhere? He has been commenting anytime we land a commit. Did fishwrap write about that too?
He was talking about Willard.
Yeah, sorry if that wasn’t clear, I did mean Willard.
Willard is a legacy. He won’t be going anywhere.
Hey @Nicebeaver, I’m looking to buy tickets for the game this saturday. I think you mentioned an alternative site to StubHub to buy tickets that doesn’t tack-on all those ridiculous fees. Could you post that?
If I’m remembering wrong, please disregard. :D
Not sure if you made a typo or forgot but the game is Friday
Yep my error. I meant Friday. :)
That’s why the Saturday tickets were so cheap.
Hey Mexi, try the link in this tweet.
Tickpick is the site. I think they still give a small discount for new signups too, so you might be able to save $5. Check your email after creating an account and there should be a promo code
https://twitter.com/BeavRecruiting/status/1171986558011920384?s=19
Appreciate it, NB! Thanks!
Nice beav. Got my two tickets for my daughter. Thanks again. 20% cheaper than other sites.
Seeing alot of FSU coaching related rumors. One that would be great for the Beavs would be Mike Leach. Imagine if he jumped ship mid-season, before OSU played them. Might help make the prospects of bowl eligibility even more realistic.
UW depth chart this week, if anybody is still looking for injury status.
Only helpful if you already know the usual starters.
https://twitter.com/LarsHanson/status/1191518476050976768?s=19
Fuller, their top WR, is back. So much for the injury narrative.
Not sure why some people are picking the upset. Beavs are winless against FBS competition at home. Washington nearly beat two top 10 teams. Back down to earth time for the Beavs this week.
Reading the Seattle times
Two stories today and neither has one iota regarding the Beavs. No mention whatsoever. We are the last thing on their mind. And they need to probably get on a bus in less than 72 hours. I think this is a good sign.
There’s a Q&A in the Seattle Times with Petersen now. It comes off as a cranky bitch for parts of the interview. I’m sure he’s shell-shocked, I doubt he imagined the Huskies at 5-4 after nine games. He did have some positive comments about JS.
OT, again.
WBB Beavs trail Team USA by 5 at the half. Game is on PAC12.
If you tune in, watch Pivec’s eyes. A leader, a competitor, easy to love.
Everybody stop and take a few minutes to love on your fur babies. Lost my retrieving challenged(like she would never do it) black lab to a stroke today. Just remember what’s only a couple minutes to you means the world to them. I had to take her in to have her put down. The vet was great, let me be with her until she passed, with plenty of tissues for everyone. Hunting dog she was not but that didn’t make her any less of a great family dog. Now go love on your pets !
Sorry for your loss bud. It’s never easy losing a friend or family.
Sorry, Carrots.
Lost my Chesapeake to the same thing. Completely unexpected, and gut wrenching. Sorry for your loss.
Dude lame. I’m super sorry.
I could only wish my 14 year old yellow lab would go so quickly — cleaning up diarrhea in the middle of the night is not my thing!
I’m sorry man. I lost my 11 year old Rott to bone cancer last year. I wasn’t really over that yet and we had a beautiful female Rott puppy basically fall in our lap. We had her for a couple of months, just long enough for everyone to be hopelessly attached to her(especially my German Shepherd) and she caught Parvo and didn’t last a week. Just absolutely gutted our household.
Tough topic. Sorry to hear it. We just went through that in August with our sweet fourteen year old lab. There’s a big hole in my afternoon when she was waiting for me, by the front door, to come home from the gym, for her walk.
If I may offer something for those in or approaching senior dog syndrome. Our vet is very competent but “old-fashioned.” As she developed suspicious symptoms we felt more diagnosis was necessary. We took her to the Carlson Clinic, which is a part of the OSU School of Veterinary Medicine. We were more than impressed. She spent an entire day there undergoing a complete exam by faculty and students.
Sadly the diagnosis was inoperable lung cancer, but we left with a clear understanding of the situation. The people there were kind and compassionate as they delivered the sad news.
For those of you in this situation, with aging pets, this is a great resource. It’s not inexpensive, as they do charge and it does take some time to get an appointment, but we felt it was well worth the time and expense.
It is located right next to Reser. Good luck.
I don’t like this matchup. Huskies will focus on run and pass when needed. Think they’ll be able to put pressure on Luton and create TO’s. We’ll move the ball some but struggle to get TDs. UW makes a statement here… 52-21 dawgs with Gebbia leading us to couple late garbage time TDs
If Washington is healthy that ^ happens.
Baseball gets another commit. Catcher, Wilson Weber, out of Barlow HS(Gresham, OR).
https://twitter.com/BaldicusDadicus/status/1182419280941305856?s=19
Looks like he was the first team All-state catcher last year as a sophomore. Power hitter
https://twitter.com/Wilson__Weber/status/1191590071444525057?s=19
Let the Adley comparisons begin.
Was thinking the same. An in-state catcher who can hit home runs? Future #1 draft pick, obviously
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaaol/2019
For all the hype about Crystal Mario building around the offensive line and how good they are, our O line is actually rated better in almost every run-based stat.
Washington’s unit and ours are ranked pretty similarly and are the two best lines in the conference so far. The stats suggest our weakness has been pass protection, where we’ve been roughly average.
On defense, we have the highest sack % in the conference and all our wins are against teams in the bottom third of the country in pass protection , while the teams we’ve lost to are all in the top half (except OK State.) Aside from ASU, our remaining opponents are all in the top third in pass protection, which suggests our greatest strength on D will be offset.
Looking at this week’s UW depth chart, Fuller, their top WR, is back. So they’re basically at full strength. Let’s stop with the injury narrative.
But maybe his gf is mad at him?!? I revise my prediction to 42-24 Dawgs. Hayes still drills a 30 yd field goal.
Bow Down.
To your reflective glory?
No one ever does except your own weird fans. Don’t you guys get tired of issuing commands no one heeds?
I’ll stick to celebrating every first down like it might be the last thank you very much.
Yup. That’s exactly what your mom does.
Woof…woof
OT:
Men’s hoops season opener tonight vs Cal-State Northridge. Not sure what time (8pm?) but it’s on P12 network.
Saw the women’s team last night. It was a great event.
The two new bigs are legit. Both can run, rebound and shoot decently.
Hopefully the girls can take some lessons from team USA. What really separated the teams was that team USA was relentlessness. Just pressure, pressure pressure. Looked like a few beav players were gassed in the first half due to the effort they needed to expend each possession
Beavs turned the ball over a lot because team USA trapped them in corners. Gave no outlets. That’s something Beavs can take and run with the rest of the year.
Women’s team has a great outlook. Depth everywhere and Tudor returning at some point gives basically Rueck the option to run the opponents out of the building. Getting to the final four is a legit expectation.
Great analysis! Hoping the women’s team does make it to the Final Four this year. I’m amazed at how much success, fandom support, and recognition in general they are getting compared to the men’s team. The women’s team is very much like the women’s volleyball team here in Nebraska. A lot of support and followers. Which I honestly think is refreshing and great for the University. I have 2 daughters and a son, so I’m hoping that someday I will be able to take them to their first women’s sports event once they are around age 7 or 8 respectively.
Take them now so you get to watch Lexi Sun:)
I live in Nebraska.
i know.
OT: on another note, I may have to go to the U of Portland @ Creighton here in Omaha, NE in March.
https://gocreighton.com/schedule.aspx?schedule=978
Fun to take them to college sports events, but they might enjoy watching local youth-league games even when they are 5 or 6 – more relatable. I watched a neighbor’s daughter in a 5th-grade gbb game the other day – not sure about the league but it was fun. The neighbor’s daughter enjoyed the social aspect and made a couple of baskets, so she was happy. One player from Townsend, Montana, (you might find it on the map) was outstanding. I thought of Scott Rueck saying he could pick out players who had older brothers (not being sexist, I think that was the quote). Sure enough, after the game, there she was, with her family, including two older brothers.
So they did what ASU and UCLA does to us every year? How did the Aussie look.
She nailed a three that looked fantastic; other than that, she didn’t get any opportunities – hell, few did, the US defense was tight knit. But when she nailed her three you could see her light up. All of our women were clearly thrilled to be on the same court as their childhood idols. I think it may have gotten in their collective head a little bit; shooting less than 50% from the line – c’mon, get your head in the game! But it was fun to watch, even though our ladies were clear.y outmatched, because they played hard, and clearly learned a lot about what they need to do to take it to the next level.
The good news is that we won’t see any competition at that level for the rest of the year. They hung in there. They allowed fewer points than Stanford did (though they scored less than the tree, too…). Who’da thunk that after being called in to salvage LW’s train wreck that SR could get the program so well on track so fast. A decade ago this kind of matchup would have been unimaginable.
I just looked up 3 very important stats: 1st stat, When Luton throws for more than 26-28 passes a game, we lose.(CAL being the exception) If Modster had played as well as Stanfords Davis Mills, CAL would have easily have won. Since both offenses were equal in every way, we ended up with the win.
Stat # 2: With 1 missed field goal against Hawaii, (Hawaii went 1/4 on field goal attempts) and 2 missed field goals against Stanford(Stanford went 1/2) If our defense holds our opponents to at least their passing or rushing allowed and one of our running backs goes for 100+ yards, we have a shot at beating our opponent.
Stat 3: Eason is exactly like Luton; if he throws 30+ passes a game, those have all been losses this season. So is the Oregon State defense going to sell out to stop the run and force Eason to beat them with the pass, or are they going to try and strike fast and early to force Eason to catch up in the air?
The game plan HAS to be to try and score as early as we can just like we did against UCLA. This will put pressure on the offense, but if the offense can outscore Washington in the first half, the game will be ours for the taking. So the question is, how good is Washington’s defense compared to Utah, CAL, and Stanford and possibly Hawaii’s too? I could see a game like CAL or Stanford looming this Friday.
This is another way stats are misleading. We don’t lose because Luton throws 30 times. Luton throws 30 times because we’re losing or we had a bad game plan.
These stats, and most stats, are not very important at all. I got a 100 in college stats and still hate stats…for the most part all they do is confuse people.
Ok, going off of your theory of “stats are misleading”; here are all of Luton’s passes broken down by passes each quarter in the 4 losses:
OK State: Luton went 23/42
1st Quarter: 10 passes
2nd Quarter: 16 passes(we were down 17-10 with 9:35 to go in the 2nd Quarter from our own 9 yard line and there were 3 passes for a
total of 2 yard gain. This started the tailspin on Offense)
3rd Quarter: 8 passes
4th Quarter: 8 passes(Then Gebbia took over after Luton’s last drive)
Hawaii: Luton went 15/32
1st Quarter: 4 passes
2nd Quarter: 9 passes
3rd Quarter: 7 passes
4th Quarter: 12 passes
Stanford: Luton went 27/39
1st Quarter: 3 passes
2nd Quarter: 12 passes (down 14-0 at this point and multiple sacks and completely abandoned the run game in this quarter)
3rd Quarter: 9 passes
4th Quarter: 15 passes(this quarter was mixed with more passes with big chunk yards by AP. why they didn’t try to run the ball more, I
have no idea)
Utah: Luton went 17/34
1st Quarter: 11 passes
2nd Quarter: 16 passes (2 missed field goals, tons of penalties, 1 INT returned for a TD by Utah)
3rd Quarter: 7 passes (again abandoned the run and a bunch of 3 and outs with no 1st downs).
4th Quarter: Luton got benched and Gebbia went in.
So the way I see it, on all the losses, the offense went really pass heavy for 1 quarter then backed off or abandoned the run and the defense was tired out quickly because of it. So what I see in the Hawaii game, Hawaii made adjustments and Oregon State didn’t account for those adjustments nor counted on Choukair to miss his 2 field goal attempts. So where do you see these “misleading”? Yes, Luton throws 30 times when we’re losing or behind; agree with you on that one.
What I am saying with these stats is this: If we don’t rely on Luton’s arm and the passes he makes are completed and effective/efficient yards gained by throwing and catching the ball, then this team has a better chance to win. When Luton becomes a gun slinger and starts throwing incomplete pass after incomplete pass, we’re going to lose. This is my point. So we can tell if this team will win or lose early on Friday night. If Luton cannot connect with his receivers early and the run game is ineffective, we will lose the game.
Another way of putting it: Luton is a game manager, not a dominant QB. Our offense needs a successful run game to work.
If I recall correctly, didn’t Angry want a QB that was a game manager over athletic at one point with GA as the HC? Now he wants an unproven athletic “moxie” player to start? Not trying to take Angry_@_Angry, but I’m just wondering if Luton is finally figuring out how to make his throws catch-able. I’d rather him have wobbly passes that are slower than rifling it so his players can catch it over throwing a tight spiral and having it fly out of the WR/TE’s hands and into a defenders hands. JS didn’t throw a tight spiral in his career, but he threw it where his guys could catch it and in a way they were able to catch the ball in the air.
Beav4life, I want the best QB on the roster to play. When I see one who’s special I mention it and want him to start. People then get mad and want the guy starting to start even more. It’s really that simple. I never said I want only a game manager, never said I’m for or against athletic QBs, etc.
I don’t think Luton is a game manager; he’s the benefactor of a well-managed game (balanced offensive play calling). I don’t get the sense he drives the offense. Rather, if things go well, he looks good. And even if it goes well (e.g. receivers are open, he has time to pass) he has cold spells and the offense stalls (Hawaii). A “game manager” doesn’t stall an offense that would otherewise work if he could complete an open pass when protected. A game manager doesn’t get “deer in headlights” look. Just my perspective.
What I am saying with these stats is this: If we don’t rely on Luton’s arm and the passes he makes are completed and effective/efficient yards gained by throwing and catching the ball, then this team has a better chance to win.
That’s obvious, though. I don’t need any stats to know that.
When Luton becomes a gun slinger and starts throwing incomplete pass after incomplete pass, we’re going to lose.
Probably. But again that’s obvious. Insert “any QB” for “Luton” and “any team” for “we”.
This is my point. So we can tell if this team will win or lose early on Friday night. If Luton cannot connect with his receivers early and the run game is ineffective, we will lose the game.
Probably. Incomplete passes don’t win games. But what if he completes 20 in a row to end the game? Not sure why the completions early have more value to you.
If your point is we need a run game, yeah. If your point is we need Luton to be efficient, yeah. If your point is we need good play calling that doesn’t become lopsided, yeah. But those stats really don’t tell us much at all. You’re making assumptions, and you can’t really deduct anything from those numbers. Usually play calling and numbers go awry when the team is behind, panicking OC, OC in love with feeding the ball to one player, etc. The stats just reflect and document these coaching (and/or player) errors, but the stats don’t make an outcome come true. Luton can go 0-10 and then complete 30 straight passes. He can also go 0-5 and on the 6th pass hit a 99 yarder. There are infinite other outcomes. Not every stat and outcome has the same value.
I’m not saying Stats predict future outcomes. What stats tell us is a story of how a single game played out and helps pinpoint where the game officially was lost. There’s a reason you get behind in a game. It’s not over the course of 4 quarters, but over the course of a single series.
Case in point, Arizona game completions to results on each possession. Just because Luton goes .500+ does not guarantee the drive will result in a TD, but the probability is high. Sacks and penalties really are drive killers as the data shows below. Incompletions hurt, but aren’t inherently drive killers.
1st possession: 3-4 (TD) first pass incomplete
2nd possession: 0-2 (Punt) incomplete pass, AP +3 yards, incomplete pass
3rd possession: 2-4 (TD) first pass complete
4th possession: 2-4 (TD) first pass complete
5th possession: 2-2 (TD) (1 pass play was incomplete and defensive holding called on Arizona)
6th possession: 2-2 (TD) (1 sack on the drive)
7th possession: 1-1 (TD)
8th possession: 1-1 (Punt) AP no gain, then 6 yard pass to Champ, next play was a sack
9th possession: 2-2 (Punt) a sack and holding penalty on the drive, but Luton had +13 yards in his 2 completions
10th possession: 3-3 (TD) Roughing passer penalty, Lavaka false start, and 2 runs for no gain
11th possession: 0-0 all run plays, (TD)
I think stats are useful as reference points over large percentages of attempts. Football is only a single event per trend so the probabilities are pretty useless. If you played the same game 10 times a season then the trends would assert themselves. Applying stats to sports only works well as the amount of games increases. Football is a terrible place to apply statistics for game predictions.
Where it is useful is it can show trends on the other teams strategies. HOw much they run, how much they pass, how often they run play action, what formations they do these things out of, do they give up lots of yards but not many touchdowns. So you can get an idea of what your opponent is comfortable doing but predicting a single even is very problematic.
Edit: Its the very lack of predictability that makes football interesting to watch. The most boring phases of OSU football for me was the end of Riley’s second era. I had seen the same plays and trends for so long I could predict if a play was run/pass/PA about 80% of the time. I even called sacks and interceptions at a higher trend than i should be able to.
oh, the predictability of Riley’s offense lingered over to Nebraska too. I went to the Ohio State game 2 years back, and Husker fans were pissed at me when I would call out the play about 4-5 seconds pre-snap about 80-90% of the time correctly. They kept asking me, “Would you stop predicting the play! I’m trying to somewhat enjoy this atrocity!” I said back to him, “I’m a lifelong Oregon State fan; I’ve seen so many Riley games that I know his offense like the back of my hand by just looking at the formation.” I called screens, I called short passes, I called draws, I called fly/jet sweeps, etc. A lot of the ones I got wrong was actually who the ball was going to on a pass or which side of the field the ball was being ran to, but I was able to predict pass and run plays very easily. Not so much with the offense we have today at Oregon State. It’s entertaining again.
Haha.I did that same shit with my brother. Thought I was a savant.
Not just strategies, but relative competence of particular units. It’s such a team game, that outside of QB, I don’t find individual stats to be very helpful, but team stats can give you a fair idea of how successful an offense or defense has been (also considering the strength of the opponent). This time of season is really the only time you have a large enough sample size for the data to be helpful.
Before making arguments with statistics, everyone needs to read Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb (or at least a few specific chapters). Far too often people conflate quality of results with quality of input (decision-making, preparation, etc.) This is one of the reasons so many “great” football coaching hires fail. Unless a coach has an established record of building successful teams with multiple groups of players (2+ recruiting classes/4+ years), there’s no way of determining whether the team’s success was a result of good coaching or a lucky convergence of talented/motivated players.
I’d also add that lack of predictability is what makes college football better than NFL, college basketball better than NBA, etc.
Anyone who was looking for a coach should have followed that idea of an established record when looking at Taggard. Dude kept ducking and running until it caught up with him. I wonder how puckered his you know what were when he realized FSU really did give him all that money and that he really had no idea how he was going to make it work.
The only meaningful stat is turnovers. Win that one and you come out with a victory 78% of the time.
That and refs will find a way to f up the game 100% of the time if the conference has a shot at sending a team to the playoffs.
I see no way they’ll allow Utah or Oregon lose another game until they meet in the conf championship game
Not exactly a bold prediction. Look at who they play. Out of Utah and Oregon’s six remaining games, I don’t see any that have even a remote chance of ending in an upset. If you’re wearing a certain shade of glasses, you could say the Civil War is the game with the highest chance of being one.
4 loss UW and WSU both took Oregon down to the final play of the game. Not saying oregon or utah will be a dog in any remaining games, but they’re not infallible.
“if the conference has a shot at sending a team to the playoffs.
I see no way they’ll allow Utah or Oregon lose another game until they meet in the conf championship game”
Exactly.
As mentioned in the last thread, to win the CW Beavs must keep the game out of the hands of the zebras. Gonna have to leave no doubt. Makes chances of a Beavs upset pretty darn slim.
I’m not even sure turnovers is an accurate stat. For example, if the QB throws a 50 yard pass that gets intercepted inside the opponent’s 10, it’s essentially a punt, yet it goes down as a turnover. If the team goes for it on 4th around the 50 and doesn’t get it, it’s essentially a turnover. Neither shows up in the stats nor is the 50 yard INT as bad as the other one. Just another example of stats not telling the story. They rarely do.
Angry, I think your point really is not that stats are bad, its how they’re used. Too often oversimplified, not contextual. Very often the effective argument is “correlation implies cause.” That’s just intellectual laziness on the part of journalists.
Just off the top of your head you’ve reeled off some good examples regarding the importance of context.
Obj, I’m not saying they’re bad no, but they’re constantly misunderstood or misinterpreted. It’s very easy to massage stats or make them fuzzy and people use it as a weapon.
Huge data pools that actually are able to confirm something are important, as are probabilities, etc.
Does anybody know what Kat Tudor’s status for this season is? Will she be playing, and when is she expected back?
I’d imagine it will take awhile to get back to full speed if she isn’t playing at this point.
Seems to be up in the air.
It has been reported that Kat will play this season as soon as she is physically ready, Rueck strongly hinted that she would likely begin play about the time conference games start (Jan 3). You probably already are aware that the NCAA refused to grant her a red shirt for last year, she is a senior and this season is it for her
BTW did y’all notice Andrea Aquino was in uniform last night, just as she was last season? She is unlikely to be medically cleared this year, but WE ARE FAMILY.
anybody here watch any of the men’s exhibition games yet?
Do they look any better/worse than last season?
I’d imagine they’re in line to be a bubble NCAA team again, but will fall short.
But maybe they’ll benefit from being forced to spread the ball around a little more now that STJ is gone?
Also, who is playing PG this year? Does Vernon finally get to fill that role? or do we force Ethan Thompson to play out of position?
Seems like a disjointed roster this season. Some decent upper classman talent in Tinkle, Thompson and Kelly, but also seems like they’ll need several freshman to fill key roles. If Reichle starts, we have problems.
This year’s team doesn’t get me very pumped up for the hoops season to start.
Is that game on TV or streaming online anywhere?
I haven’t seen any TV info. Not sure why you have a game start at 8PM if it isn’t going to fit a tv timeslot. Why else would you start so late?
Beav are favored over Cal State Northridge by 13 or so, but I’ve also seen alot of people saying CSUN is being overlooked, considering they return alot of talent including 4 of 5 starters.
Some new rules this year, sounds like the 3pt line has been moved out a little further(about an extra 17 inches)
and flopping will be more closely scrutinized by officials
Men’s team should be decent. They are thought of as just outside the bubble type team.
New guards will be the deciding factor. If they can take some of the burden off tres, they are tourney bound.
Three point line has been extended.
Dastrup is a real wildcard. He was a top 100 recruit but then when on a 2 year mission. I think he’s like 23 now.
Looking forward to seeing what Dastrup looks like finally. Been too long since he last played ball.
Julian Franklin looks intriguing as a 6’7″ guard. But, I’ve never seen him play.
Don’t forget: Jerod Lucas is potentially an offensive talent like we haven’t seen in decades. Third highest scorer in California High School history.
Hopefully he can make the transition to college ball quickly.
Lucas played for his dad in highschool, and was used to having his number called repeatedly throughout the game. I’m curious how he’ll adjust to being on the other side of that coin, where the coaches with kids on the team won’t he his dad anymore.
I heard from a buddy that went to the exhibition game last week that Dastrup looked slow and lost….not a good sign for a guy we are really counting on. I really wish Washington would have stuck around.
Pac-12 network
i see it’s now listed on the Pac12 network website as part of the Pac12 “Oregon” channel’s schedule. The team hasn’t officially announced any TV info, as far as I know.
But for most, that means you still won’t be able to see it unless you have a special sports package that includes all of the Pac12 network’s regional channels. The main Pac12 station will have the USC game instead.
Pac-12 OREGON
I agree with most that the game this weekend will probably be a UW win somewhere between 15-25 points.
With that being said I could also see UW coming out flat as all of their preseason goals have gone out the window and along with a short week / stuck in Corvallis for a Friday night game. This combined with the Beavers feeling good about themselves and now knowing how to win games makes this a situation where there could be an upset. The only way this happens is if the Beavs keep is close into the third quarter and they start to believe they can put the game away (as they have done the past 2 W’s). UW has played exactly the opposite letting W’s slip away in the second half. Momentum and state of mind is a funny thing (especially in 18-22yo).
Peterson is a very good coach so this is probably more wishful thinking than anything but I could see the scenario above possibly playing out Friday night.
With hoops starting tonight, does Jack come back finally?
From the dead? I hope not, that’s scary stuff.
https://mobile.twitter.com/KirkHerbstreit/status/1191515210076622850
Thanks everyone, my oldest daughter is taking it pretty hard. After a long talk and more tissues, it looks like she’s getting a puppy for Christmas. What can I say? I’m a softy when it comes to my girls and puppies. I know a couple local breeders of some breeds other than labs, it’s going to be her puppy so she’s going to pick it out and she doesn’t want another lab.
Hang in there, dad. Your girls will always remember how you were there for them during this time, the walk sounds like a good idea.
Get a golden doodle. You won’t regret it.
The guy who “invented” them disagrees.
That’s so hard. My boys are 9 and 12 and it was rough.
I got a Chiwhippit from Safe Haven, we love her. Stay away from puppy mills, inbred and messed up.
That’s true. The German Shepherd lines are getting kinda funky with these sloped back “show stance” dogs. We found a breeder with new fresh eastern European blood and they’re good looking doggies.
Get a rottweiler. They don’t call them the king of dogs for nothing.
I’ll have another one, guaranteed. This valley is such a parvo infected shithole that we’ve talked about having an out of state breeder hold our next puppy until she can have all of her immunizations. Rotts are very susceptible to Parvo.
Yes we were very careful with ours when he was a pup. I’ve never heard of it being a problem out here in maui but there are hardly any Rottweilers out here.
I’m in the Willamette valley and it basically looks like one continuous homeless camp these days. It’s a cesspool and I can’t wait to leave.
That’s too bad. I grew up there. I’m trying to find a dame to breed with my dog but they’re next to nonexistent out here.
Not gonna link the article but super Mario says the Pac-12’s best is on par with the SEC…….
“Cristobal said he believes the best teams in the Pac-12 are on par with the SEC, where he coached as an assistant.”
Only problem with that statement is the Pac’s best team (allegedly) couldn’t even beat the SEC’s 4th or 5th best team at a neutral site.
Details….
I really hope the University of Arrogance makes it to the playoffs and has to play Ohio State in the first round. They will be an embarrassment.
Wow. Nebby getting waxed on their own floor by UC Riverside.
For those of us with dish we’re stuck streaming the game. USC/Florida directional U something is on at 8
Waxed? Women’s team? And this is televised?!? NCAA really is all about $$$. Shameless.
Yes, they have a lot of players from Brazil.
Per Daschel, CSU Northridge won’t have their best player tonight.
Beavs have no excuses tonight. Need to get a W
LUKE
Tonight Luke proves he is human, goes 2+ innings giving up 6 hits and 6ER.
ERA jumps to 2.84
https://www.mlb.com/gameday/jalisco-vs-los-mochis/2019/11/05/610699#game_state=live,game_tab=,game=610699
Hamilcar leads the nation in TFLs (17.5) second in sacks (12). Pretty damn cool w/4 games to go.
Anyone got a decent stream? I see nothing’s changed with the Pac-12 websites shitty, choppy streams.
Anyone know why Vernon isn’t starting or playing so far?
Was able to get a decent stream using the Pac12 now app.
Try Super Beta Prostate.
Or male Kegels.
Cock push ups.
1st half was pretty meh. We’re more athletic and have more depth it’s starting to show as the game wears on. But we don’t look like the better coached team.
Either Ethan Thompson is suffering for being played out of position(he shouldn’t be playing PG) or he’s just not very good. I just don’t see how he was supposed to be a top 50 player out of highschool. What does he do well?
Was hoping to see some improvement from him after 2 years of playing significant minutes, but so far he’s starting the season looking like pretty much the same guy.
Where’s Vernon too? This team again needs a point guard to set up the offense. I see too much 1 on 1 play and not enough team ball. We have no discipline on offense.
And enough with the deep 3’s guys. You’re not Steph Curry or Damian Lillard
What does Reichle do well?
Just an FYI but Lillard is not a good 3 point shooter. Myers Leonard has a better career 3 point shooting percentage.
Lillard’s shooting over 40% so far this season. I’ll take it.
And Leonards’s actually a pretty good shooter himself, so I wouldn’t say that’s bad company.
Career average isn’t even 37%
Some of the threes he takes have a pretty high degree if difficulty. He’s a pretty confident dude.
Speaking of threes, the one Lucas just drained was pure. Quick release, too.
Taking poor shots has zero to do with confidence.
Look, I’m not gonna get in a pissing match with homers. The stats back up the fact that Lillard is not a good 3 point shooter. Curry is over 43% for his career. Lillard below 37%. Lumping those two together as good 3 point shooters is like calling duck fans knowledgeable.
It wasn’t even the point. I said “enough with the deep 3s” because we had 2 guys take unnecessarily deep 3 pt shots in the first half, well beyond the 3 pt line and both shots were mussed badly. And i referenced 2 other guys who are also known for taking unnecessarily deep 3s(Curry and Lillard)
I get it, Lillard isn’t as good of a shooter as Curry. But both have a reputation for taking deep 3s when a higher percentage shot would make more sense.
That would be smart not too because there is literally no one else who would say Lillard is not a good 3 point shooter.
Career 3 pt FG percentage of 36.8%
Find someone who thinks that shooting below 38%-40% on 3 point FG’s makes one a “good” 3 point threat and you’ll have a legitimate argument.
Maybe he’s good at shooting 3’s. Anyone can be. He’s average at making them.
“ball don’t lie” – Rasheed Wallace
Reichle excels at missing open 3’s.
Damn. What’d you do to embed the major league clip?
You click the “embed” link under the movie. There is code there (I edited yours).
Who the hell are these players? Never heard of 90% of them.
That’s because Tinkle has a rule where if you aren’t related to a coach, you’re only allowed on the team for one year.
Is that Whirled Peas’ kid playing for Northridge?
anyone had better luck with a different browser other than chrome for streaming from the Pac-12 website? This is ridiculous. Constantly freezes up
Isn’t Chrome a Google product? Could be the problem…spends all its time tracking you.
I use Firefox and watched the game on the Pac-12 web site with no issues.
Jack was f’ing with you.
Beavs win by 87-67, although it was closer for most of the game and they pulled away late. Margin could have been quite a bit wider if they had a more efficient game from Thompson, who finishes with 14 pts, on 4 for 17 shooting.
Workmanlike win. This is one they would have lost in the past.
Why do they have ET playing PG? And no phone home jokes.
Next two games will be good tests. Both ISU and OU are considered bubble quality teams.
Sounds like same old same old, though.
Seattle Times on Eason:
“In nine games this season, Eason has completed 65.3% of his passes, throwing for 2,297 yards with 20 touchdowns and five interceptions. There have been a whole lot of highlights … and some learning opportunities, too.
Here’s one, for example: when pressured, Eason has a tendency to spin backwards out of the pocket, simultaneously digging a more damning hole.
“We don’t get much of that in practice,” Petersen said of Eason’s spinning pocket escapes. “We’re trying to emphasize him staying in the pocket. That’s your game — step up, not out. So we’ll keep working on that.”
DE Riley Sharp seems pretty disciplined at staying home, maybe he’ll benefit if Eason steps up and Hamilcar is being his relentless self.
Also, in the article, they’ve a big hole at MLB for various reasons, sounds like something to test with Jefferson/Pierce.
And, they admit to not finishing teams well in the fourth quarter. Hope that’s not Luton’s “cold quarter.”
https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/uw-husky-football/chris-petersen-on-uws-inside-linebacker-depth-jacob-easons-learning-opportunities-and-more/
“Eason has a tendency to spin backwards out of the pocket, simultaneously digging a more damning hole.”
Sounds familiar.
Recruiting tidbit. Via 247, we are on pace to finally be out of the gutter of pac-12 recruiting rankings for 2020. Right now we are 9th with fewer commits than some other schools rated higher (15 so far). If you look back the last 4 or so years Beavs are typtically 11th or 12th. What makes it worse is when you look at the players signed many of them are not contributing or left the program for various reasons. Smith is slowly building up the depth in all areas. You can see he is targeting position groups and recruiting higher ranked players. It’s great to see the results on the field showing up as they should do even better in the near future with reinforcements coming from a recruiting standpoint.
Oddly enough, USC is ranked 10th and Utah 12th (competing for the pac-12 championship but with only 6 commits so far).
The USC guys are waiting for Urban.
USC basically offer an guy the AD job this week but he turned it down because USC told him that Urban Meyer is not an option.
What’s that saying about Sherlock?
Focus on the part about the BEAVERS!!!!
Last i checked the average rating was up half a percent too. Doesn’t sound like a big deal but that means the medium talent is improving a good deal and we are taking on less projects.
I don’t think Smith really cares much about the stars though. YOu can see that the guys he are picking on defense have a lot of length, OLine have pretty big bodies and lots of height (no 250 lbers) and the skill positions are FAST. So he basically goes after guys that fit the system he is making instead of the stars. I’m sure he would be happy to get a bunch of 5 stars but the strategy of getting the kinds of players that fit what you are building is really sound.
First impression of the men’s team. Not bad. Always in control. Small run by other team was quickly put down.
Tres – looked more efficient. His effort level looked like he got some good feedback from the NBA on what to work on. He’d be a glue guy up there so he looks like he’s showing he can be the guy who plays with energy and effort all the time. Not taking plays off.
Ethan – a poor shooting night. But he didn’t let that really affect his effort level. Still fought for rebounds. If lasts night shooting was just a poor night, they would have won by 30ish. Missed a lot of close jumpers.
Reichle – played like a man who’s job it was to no longer to stand in the corner. Made some nice hustle plays and showed what kind of player he was in high school, a scorer.
Kelley – just needs to stay out of foul trouble. Ideally he’d be a double double every game. Draws a lot of fouls which is nice if they can get to the bonus early in games.
Dastrup – did look kind of heavy.
Lucas – looks like he could develop into a solid 6th man.
Bench guys were 6-9 shooting.
Real test is next two games. Luckily at home.
Did you notice any offensive sets for Ethan to take his guy one on one? I saw a few minutes of the game. He had a nice hanging turnaround in the key area. I’d like to see him take his guy off the dribble and make a play. He didn’t look like he was in the flow of the offense, much like his previous 3 years.
Silva wears number 12 and it was messing with my head. I thought I was seeing Eubanks again. Served his role as a backup center.
Regarding Vernon not playing, there is an article in the Corvallis paper with some quotes from WT, he says that Vernon didn’t play because some of the younger players were given the minutes and Vernon understands. I find that sort of a bizarre rationale. Tinkle doesn’t seem to understand that he has a true point guard right under his nose. He’s going to lose him if he’s not careful. At the end of the broadcast there was a shot of Vernon, he didn’t look enthused.
https://www.gazettetimes.com/sports/beavers-sports/basketball/osu-men-s-basketball-beavers-second-half-rallies-lead-to/article_513d3fc2-e70f-5bba-adfc-b0ff0789580a.html
It doesn’t make much sense. Maybe Tinkle doesn’t like that Vernon’s dad isn’t a basketball coach?
ET doesn’t look comfortable running the team. He has the physical tools, but it’s not a role that fits him very naturally. Maybe the coaches are trying to groom ET to make him more draftable in a couple years by getting him PG experience, at the expense of team improvement? (Nepotism?)
I’ve never watched Vernon in the past and thought “this guy is a liability” In fact, the team often played it’s best last year when he was running the offense.
One thing the team seems to have this year is a little more depth. The young guys came in and held their own. Should help the team in the long run so we don’t have to play Tres/Kelly as many minutes to the point where they’re gassed in the last five minutes or overtime. Lucas looks to have the nicest shooting stroke on the team already.
Totally agree on ET and potential nepotism. He is a natural SG/wing, not a PG. Also agree on Vernon. Just a strange to stupid decision by Tinkle. I wonder if Lucas has the quickness to hang against P5 players long term when they get tape on him.
Vernon must be thinking WTF! He started the exhibition game against Warner Pacific. Every time I saw him play last season, he was pass first, but took good shots when available. Nice foul shooter also. Tinkle is the guy who thought Ronnie Stacy and Keondre Dew were D-1 talents, I’m skeptical of any “judge of talent” decisions he makes. Also, Hollins is a mess, 0-4, no stats worth mentioning, he continues to be in serious regression mode.
I feel like Tinkle’s a good recruiter and he’s a decent in-game coach, but his roster talent evaluation sucks.
Reichle is not a Pac 12 caliber player. He should get no more then 12 minutes off the bench in spot relief, as overall he’s meh. Not quick enough to stay in front of most SG’s or SF’s, misses too many wide open shots. Now he has confidence from being given so much PT so he tries to drive and throws up bad shots. Watched closely and he requires a lot of defensive help. No clue why he’s such a Tinkle favorite, and I guarantee decisions like this (and the coaches sons getting advantages) are why we’ve had so many players transfer out the last couple seasons. At best Reichle was serviceable last night against a lower division team (the kind of team he should be playing for.) He will kill us again against power 5 teams. Must be a practice Allstar or be dating one of the Tinkle ladies, as there’s no other reason I can think of that makes him a starter.
And the youth over Vernon reason sounds like bullshit to me. If that was really the case then why would injury prone Tres play to the final whistle in a 20 point blow out against a lower division team? Ethan too? Seems like those would be the players who get pulled out in favor of youth instead of stuffing the stat sheets.
Starting to worry that subconsiously this season is going to turn into objective #1 Tres NBA audition instead of a quest to make the tourney.
Reichle isn’t a pac-12 player but Tinkle is a good recruiter? I don’t understand those statements.
Tinkle isn’t that good of a recruiter to me. Other than the coaches kids, he is getting players that are graded lower than what we should be getting as a pac-12 team. 2018 10th best class in the conference. 3 of the 4 players are no longer with the program. 2019 9th ranked class. When he has had higher ranked classes he doesn’t do as much as he should with them. He is now recruiter lower ranked players than he did when he arrived. I don’t understand why they extended his contract without seeing results from this season first. They must be worried he would leave once Tres is done.
I haven’t seen players getting noticeably better while player for him. I’d give him more credit if it seemed he was getting pieces that fit certain needs but I don’t see that either.
More explanation on what I mean on Reichle: fits more in the local kid you take as a 12th man/Roster Filler/Practice player. Not a starter or even second unit guy. You need some players like that on the team that help keep local connections in tact, etc… But should never see the kind of minutes he gets accept in garbage time.
The Tinkle extension is 100% OSU model: If you have a good season we over-reward because we’re scared you’ll move on to greater things.
I don’t think you see improvement because anyone with talent has walked after a year or 2 and I think it’s due to nepotism and loyalty to players like Reichle. He brings in players who would potentially fill needs, but they don’t get an opportuinty because he continues to play the Thompsons out of position at a detriment to the team. Not happy with Tinkle as a coach.
It is a small sample-size, but Lucas looked like a guy who can help us right away. Does he defend?
I am also intrigued by Miller-Moore. He looks the part, maybe an alternative to Hollins.
I thought Antoine Vernon must have had minor injury or something, but I guess not. Really surprised that he did not get off the bench.
I think front court depth is going to be an issue. I like Kelly alot, but he racks up fouls.
“Not happy with Tinkle as a coach.” (dwill03)
He’s never seemed to be a critical thinker – decisions are cast in stone. The sideline bluster seems overdone and ineffective – sortof like Banker.
Hmm, test failed…that embed thingy no worky for me neither
Did I read that Tinkle gets 2 million a year?
Ignorance is bliss as far as I am concerned.
Doesn’t work for me either.
I’ll preface this by saying I’m only mentioning Trump in the context of college football. Don’t worry, this isn’t a commentary on my feelings for or against the president because I know people are sensitive to that topic.
Was reading the president will be attending the Bama/LSU game this weekend. The Bama student government has issued a warning to fans “Any organizations that engage in disruptive behavior during the game will be removed from block seating instantly for the remainder of the season,”
The warning didn’t go over to well, so now they’ve edited to remove any context surrounding the president.
Should be interesting to see how they police “disruptive behavior” at a college football game.
lol
That should be fun.
This was big on the CFB reddit. So many keyboard warriors. Nothing will happen it is freaking SEC country. Dude isn’t going to a Duck game.
Tickets. Guys I am looking for two tickets for my daughter and her friend for Friday. anyone selling anything cheap? They will move and sit wherever
jtdufour@gmail.com
There are $22 seats if you follow this link, with no additional fees.
They’re in the visitor section(corner of endzone near video screen)
But if they’re going to move around, the location shouldn’t matter.
https://twitter.com/BeavRecruiting/status/1171986558011920384?s=19
Nice beaver! Thanks brother
$19.00 each with instant download to your phone on Vividseats. I’ve used them for game and concerts.
Completely OT: My step-son Collin one year later…that was a crazy phone call we got in Bend in the middle of the night.
https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/Veterans-Remember-Surviving-Borderline-Shooting_Los-Angeles-564584922.html
https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/Survivors-of-Borderline-Share-Stories-One-Year-Later_Los-Angeles-564587952.html
Thx – things move so fast anymore – and often not in the best of ways and we tend to forget the craziness. Glad your step-son has the story to tell a year later.
The betting line has moved slightly toward the Beavs. Started as 11 point underdogs now 10
SP+ projects a 40-26 game, Beavs with a 21% chance to win.
The Tacoma News Tribune has an article about the game where they actually discuss the Beavers
https://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/college/university-of-washington/article237039884.html
Betting odds have been great all season for the beavs. That mostly cause the beavs don’t have many fans still betting week to week so they have to make favorable odds to balance the bets.
Interesting quote from the Petersen PC:
On the impact of Smith knowing Petersen and vise versa on the sideline:
“Yeah. I thought it was interesting if you really knew what was going on in the game last year, in terms of the things that were called that hadn’t been called all season. And then there is comes with all this different stuff. There were some interesting things going on last year I thought.”
We might be seeing some things we haven’t seen yet this year on offense.
Jimmy Lake on Luton:
“They got an NFL quarterback that nobody is talking about. This guy will be playing on Sundays. He can make all the throws.”
“Pocket movement and then making smart decision,” Bowman said of Luton’s strengths. “He’s pretty fast when he gets going. He’s been effective this year. We’re just going to have to shut him down.”
This is exactly what the draft buzz article said about Luton. Lake doesn’t have to be so effusive, but he goes out of his way to say Luton can “make all the throws.” He doesn’t have to call him a future NFL QB, but he does.
The buzz will die down once Washington kills us. Luton hasn’t beat a decent defense.
Maybe. The buzz seems to be centered on his “clean pocket passing” ability. If he’s just under pressure a lot and doesn’t produce because of that, I could see the narrative continuing. If he has good protection, but can’t produce because he doesn’t have open receivers as often, then the narrative starts to break down.
Part of the “makes good decisions” observation has to be that Hodgins is really good and gets open often.
Another part of the “good decisions” is the lack of interceptions. If you focus on stats, as the reporter likely does and as Lake may have done, that single int can lead to that conclusion.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see JS pushing Luton to throw into tighter windows rather than into the 5th row now. Smith’s aggressive side could come out as he gets more experience with Luton.
I think Luton has so few INT because he throws a wobbly ball. Just a theory, but he got away with a ton of INTs last year and has done so again this year. He must have at least 5 dropped INTs this year. Last year he had about the same but in less time. Our WRs are used to catching it but DBs aren’t. He seems to have unusually good luck in that department; I can’t think what else it would be.
So it’s based on a stupid, misleading stat…some team will feel max pain.
I would assume UW’s DC has watched game film and isn’t just relying on the INT stat.
Same with NFL scouts. I could see the stat being a first-level filter, but surely no one is going to a game in-person without having seen him on film beforehand.
I’m starting to think there could be a cognitive bias at play here based on AB’s seeing what we expect to see and/or scouts seeing what they expect to see.
Here’s the problem with any of this:
Dude broke his back. Any scouts/franchise that wants to gamble with that fact deserves to lose their job the following year.
Exactly, he can’t even light up good college Ds. Unless he’s Johnny Hekker 2.0 and somehow NFL coaches figure something out no way.
Jets release him in 2022 and NE picks him up for pennies. He learns from Brady in his last year and wins 5 Superbowls before retiring in 2028. Same year beavs win Nattie’s in WBB, Baseball, softball, wrestling and football.
Whatever you’re smoking…I want some!
That sweet sweet sarcasm mixed with optimistic nastyness! I mostly just do edibles for sleep though haha
You know, Dennis Erickson liked OSU”s signing of Luton, but Erickson’s son also coached him at Lutons’ brief stop in Idaho somewhere.
The notion that Luton is an NFL QB seems absurd, but people start buying into a narrative, parroting it, and don’t question it. Even in the NFL. That’s why they end up losing jobs.
Let’s see how he does against the toughest part of the schedule. I hope he’s successful, but I am skeptical that he can put the team on his shoulders and carry them.
Bow Down!
Still no weirdo
So awkward when they come here wanting to sniff asses in public, isn’t it?
Bow wow
Which is worse, licking your own asshole clean or sniffing someone elses?
Haha canzano writing that OSU needs to protect Smith from other programs. That’s not happening.
1. He hasn’t actually done anything yet.
2. He has to get to the rose bowl for a big time program to even show interest.
Coach that might be worth protecting a little bit would be the o coordinator. Lindgren could be sought after for any big program that needs an offensive spark.
Lol. From #19 on the hot seat a month ago to we have to protect him…
Rose Bowl? Shucks! All you have to do to get a big program interested is put up .500 records for a decade!
While I think it’s severely premature that we need to start worrying about another program poaching Smith, it’s ludicrous to say he would need to get to a Rose Bowl before bigger programs would start showing interest.
Canzano fell for Taggart’s traveling salesman approach without any constructive criticism. He has poor judgement.
Has he opined on Taggart’s firing, suggested a Oregon should go after him when Super Mario leaves?!? LOL…
Canzano is stuck in the past, probably remembering that the Chargers went for Riley after a 5-6 season and then Nebraska went after Riley because they were insane. Smith’s got some proven to do. I still believe Anderpants ran the program into the ground. If Riley had stayed he would have delivered 4-7 wins a year. Smith’s job is to take the program beyond mediocrity, that’s a big task.
4 wins sounds right. He was like a rotten fish that needed to be chucked in the trash.
Huge transfer get for the Beavs, 4 star top 100 DE Charles Moore comes In from Auburn, has 4 years to play
Wait, what?
Already enrolled at OSU, but it looks like grades could have been the reason he didn’t stick at Auburn. He signed at both Auburn AND the JC out of high school and left Auburn in early September.
Still, if he can qualify, he looks like he could be a nice addition and give us depth at a major position of need.
I mean…hip hip hooray! Such a neat deal! We’re all really excited about Charles. He reminds us a bit of Simi Kuli.
Except he’s already enrolled.
Wilikers
Haha!
So if he’s qualified, does this mean that he can play next season?
Don’t you need one full year from your transfer date to be able to play the next season? Does he need to sit out next year too?
If Oregon State would’ve landed former USC transfer and current Oregon Ducks wide receiver Devon Williams the program would’ve been at its max number of spots (25).
Moore, therefore, would not have been an option for the Beavers when he became available.
That’s per the Oregonian.
LA, I thought it was start of school year to school year. This is where quarters really help us as a guy can transfer to OSU before fall enrollment ends and not miss another year.
I’d much rather have a DE than a WR. Williams seemed a bit nuts, too. Hopefully Moore is sane.
I thought you wanted Psycho’s on defense?
How do we know he’s not a psycho?
Hmmmm.
@BG, Auburn is actually very competitive academically. Their average enrollee is 3.8 I believe. OSU is uh…much lower. It’s a reason we are a great destination for JC guys.
Yep, Auburn has way better academics. They’re ranked 104th, and we’re 134th. I know the rankings suck and all that and some schools pay to get higher, but they do create perception. Does OSU even have an SAT yet?
Our defense is ranked higher than our academics?!?!!!!! What measurement of academics is that?
What rankings are you referencing?
No longer, basically you are immediately eligible. The rules are a bit wordy though, lots or requirements and exceptions
Man, i go offline for a couple hours and we announce one of the programs all time highest rated recruits. I should take breaks more often.
This was completely out of left field for me. Hadnt heard anything about him before today, other than that our coaches follow him on twitter.
Go Beavs, hope this isnt another one of those Jordan Whitley signings where the guy sticks for multiple years but never sees the field
Do you mean Craig Evans??
Probably meant Evans; Whittley has played in every game except Cal Poly. And he is only gonna be around for a max of 2 seasons (this one and next)
You’re right, meant Craig Evans.
Been a helluva day.
The reason i was offline earlier when the news broke was to help out a coworker and let a dog out to pee while the owner is out of town. The owner is another coworker. Basically i was the 3rd party trying to help out in a pinch.
Well, the f*cking dog wanted nothing to do with me and ran out through a small hole in the fence and was running for it’s life all over the Hawthorne area in Southeast PDX. Any time i would get within 20 yards, the dog would jet. She ran across 4 lanes of busy traffic on Cesar Chavez multiple times. This went on for a good 90 minutes until my coworker arrived to help coax the dog into her car.
It’s a miracle this dog didnt get flattened by a car today and that i dont have to break the bad news to a friend that i killed their pet.
If you live in the area and saw a guy running around today in a panic with an OSU hat on, that was me.
Or possibly just another tweaker with an OSU hat.
But the new commit was welcomed news when i read it!
Sounds like the dog is a good judge of character:)
I grew up in that neighborhood. My mom still lives there in the same house. It has changed a lot in (almost) 60 years. (Mom is 96.)
Is this Hamilcar’s last year? I think so but hope not.
If these JC D lineman see the field, Hamilcar and Sharp would have a blast…
He’s a junior. With his numbers he could consider going early.
That’s a really fast way to move our average rating up .6 for 2020. Film is bananas, are we sure he’s not 30?
Here’s Moore’s film. His offer sheet is insane. From what I can see in the video the rating looks warranted.
Damn, those poor kids looking like ragdolls
Reminds me a little of a DeLawrence Grant or DaJarius Jackson type DE. Very quick to the ball and powerful looking guy.
Damn, I think that guy played at Ridgemont High.
Looks like this is the future of lower p5 program recruiting. Pick up scraps from bigger programs. Hopefully they aren’t too damaged.
Our scraps have been panning out this year, that’s for sure. Curious what approach JS takes to get these kids to Corvallis.
Helluva scrap!!! A lump of apple-wood smoked bacon just rolled off the table….
https://www.carltonfarms.com/product/applewood-smoked-bacon/
It’s perfect for OSU. We can offer strong players immediate playing time instead of 2 years on the bench at a top 10 school
Here is an article stating he signed with the JC college 9 months before the season starts. So he most likely did not qualify to get into Auburn, went to JUCO and took a class passed it and is now eligible to play. How he ended up at Oregon State is a surprise, but a pleasant one:
https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/auburn-football/charles-moore-auburn-tigers-jones-county-community-college/
https://directory.oregonstate.edu/?type=showfull&osuuid=66090840738
https://osubeavers.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=7752
Here is the non-subscriber portion of an article about the Beavs-Huskies on ESPN
Washington Huskies (-10) at Oregon State Beavers
Kezirian: This is all about the letdown spot for a Washington team that put everything it had into last week’s home game against Utah. The Huskies lost a heartbreaker at home, and now they must hit the road to face an Oregon State team that provides minimal excitement. Meanwhile, the Beavers have won back-to-back games in the underdog role, and I think they’re a live ‘dog here, as well.
The Beavers are two wins away from bowl eligibility, and their best chances are the next two games at home, before closing out the season on the road at Washington State and Oregon. I think it is a great spot to back Oregon State — with a raucous home crowd on national television — catching a flat Huskies team. Now, the Beavers’ defense is pretty weak, so I have much more confidence in their ability to score points. In my eyes, a high-scoring non-cover is more likely than a low-scoring cover, so I am opting for the team total.
Pick: Oregon State team total over 27.5 points (FanDuel)
I’m all about the letdown angle for uw. From the stories about them, they are mentally exhausted and they are trying to force themselves to get excited about this week’s game. And it’s on a short week.
Smith is making a major personnel error if he doesn’t start Jefferson this week and give him the majority of the carries. Pierce gains all his yards vs bad defenses. The one good D he’s faced held him to 21 yards rushing. He can’t put the team on his back and carry them to victory. He’ll probably get a shot at the NFL but that’s because the NFL stat monkey scouts only look at his 6.1 yards per carry but he sucks and will eventually get cut. I can’t wait to be proven right this week but if not, I’ll keep banging this drum because eventually he’ll have a bad game again and I can gloat about how I told you so.
“I’ll keep banging this drum because eventually he’ll have a bad game again and I can gloat about how I told you so.”
You spilled the beans on your completely baseless claim right here.
Ohio State was a “bad defense?”
Their D was 53rd in the country last year so it wasn’t good. The point of the post though was to apply the same logic in an evaluation of Pierce that many continue to apply to Luton. Funny how the stupidity is seen when applied to Pierce but not Luton.
I picked up what u were playing down.
Haha, yeah, NFL scouts only look at stats. Riiiiiight.
Is this a joke? Too funny! Need confessional there Rev?
I am confused… AP has looked like the better back all year imo… JJ isn’t 100% healthy from what I’ve seen… he looked better last week but not as dynamic as he was last year
It’s satire Chuck. Showing how stupid the Luton critics continue to look digging their heels in each week. He’ll have a bad game again, then get cut from a NFL team in the future and that will be their evidence that they were right all along while never acknowledging he’s a top 7 QB in OSU history. Just wait…
Lol… well i misread you there sir… everyone knows I have supported the decision to start Luton this year… I thought you were making the opposite point, that Luton hasn’t performed well… no wonder they are mad at you, lots of egos on here that can’t admit when they are wrong… JS isn’t a dummy playing favorites, but they all will deny it… I think it’s the trauma they have experienced over the years with Riley and Anderson… I’ve heard survivors never get over it.. Brenda Tracy can relate to them
Top 7 in school history just says how bad our history is. When did we first throw a forward pass like 1996?
So the top 6 are, guessing here:
Baker;
Mannion (# yards, TDs);
Anderson;
Smith (wins, final ranking);
Moore (wins in a season, but extra game);
Canfield (or Wilhelm?);
Seriously, if Luton is “Top 7” after playing so few games, it suggests that OSU has had a lot of mediocre to poor QBs.
Game thread is scheduled to go up at 7:15 tomorrow night. Smith statement game? Big opportunity possible though not probable. I still think Washington by 15 but goooo Beavs.
I’m expecting the bad Luton, FWIW. This is yet another possible opinion changing game for him! ..(he’s like 0-8 career in these games).
Real talk, is your last name Gebbia? Or are you related in some way? Is your first name Tristian and not Jake? I am trying to figure this out… Your a patient man, you realize it’s been 8 games don’t you?
Hope this doesn’t result in Gebbia transferring if this guy signs.
https://twitter.com/TomLoy247/status/1192631190311882752
He’s the same year as Gebbia. I’d be really interested to hear how they’re pitching Sears on OSU.
I don’t get what’s the big deal… wouldn’t Gebbia out compete him? Gebbia’s got the moxie and he’s the more talented QB. Unless he’s a quitter and doesn’t want to compete why is this a bad deal?
This^^^^
What We Learned: Why did Jack Sears leave the USC football …
https://www.si.com › USC Trojans
Aug 27, 2019 – Jack Sears had positioned himself to transfer from USC after the 2019 season for more than a year. But he never intended to leave the team …
Sounds like Sears got a pretty shitty deal from Helton, he fell to 4th on the depth chart? That numbnut Helton is going to be gone soon anyway. Just my opinion, but I’m starting to think JS isn’t quite seeing what he wants in Gebbia for whatever reason.
wow…that’s really messed up on Helton’s part. Good on Jack Sears to focus on graduating early so he can get out of there with a degree and play immediately the following year with 2 years of eligibility left. Coach Smith recruited him back in 2016. So there is a relationship and history with him. This looks promising on a lot of levels. It’s quite possible that coach Smith and coach Lindgren want 2 solid depth QB’s on the roster to add competition and to have options during the season. I hope we get Jack because he sounds like he is aware of things in life well before they happen. In the article it stated he attended the 2019 Spring Graduation Ceremony because he knew it was unlikely he would stick around after the fall when he officially graduates.
This should put fire under the QBs collective butts!!! I’m all for it. If a QB leaves after getting more competition, then he’s made-up everyone’s mind. Smith recognizes the importance of having depth at the position, look at what he’s done with Luton and most of these guys are light years ahead of Luton without 6 years of being in the program….bring em in!!!!
Has Smith not watched the 5 minutes of HUDL clips that Angry used to determine he should be the starter? Is Smith really basing this on practice? Somewhere Allen Iverson is disgusted by this.
Haha! Moxie?! We talking about moxie?!
If this guy transfers here, I don’t think Gebbia would transfer out, may lose another year again.
I’m good with Sears if he decides to come. Found what I could on Sears. Looks like a legit QB. Plenty of talent. Has one pac12 start where he did fine. And he’s graduating in three years? He’d make the competition for QB better. The guy who wins will be pretty good. That’s good for the program. And the backup would be pretty good too.
Pretty nice to go from having to start a walk on QB to having a couple 4 stars battle it out.
Gebbia ain’t going anywhere. He has already sat for two years for his chance. If he is not absolutely positive that he can beat out a guy coming in that is new to the system, then he doesn’t have the confidence to be the guy in the first place.
USC seems like a mess. They’re hung up on their glory days with unrealistic expectations, like Texas, Tennessee, Nebraska, etc.
As a result they can’t hire a good AD (who needs to be able to push back when necessary), and who would hire a good coach, and you can’t blame players for wanting to transfer given the instability.
If he’s interested in OSU I just hope the kid is talented and has a good head on his shoulders.
If so, let the competition begin.
Quality QB depth is crucial, just ask USC. Or UCLA. Or Cal. Or Stanford.
He was being recruited by Coach Smith in 2016 when Smith was in Seattle. So this makes sense that Coach Smith would give him a hard look and invite him up to Oregon State this weekend. If there’s a spot for him to land, look to see him come to Corvallis next year.
Question is, he would have to sit out next year though right? He can use this year as his redshirt year, but since he didn’t enroll for Fall term, he would have to then sit out a year, right? https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/bio/_/id/4243216/jack-sears
HC JS gets a mention from Last Chance U coach. He wants Taggarts old job, and has doubts about JS.
https://247sports.com/Article/Florida-State-Seminoles-coaching-search-Jason-Brown-Last-Chance-U-Willie-Taggart-138080042/Amp/?
That dude sounds like a walking, talking recruiting violation.
From his quotes, he talks kind of like Trump.
Also says no Pac-12 player, presumably that would include Isaiah Hodgins, would not have made his Juco team.
Yeah, he’s a genius. He could actually be the next Fortune Cookie salesman.
I don’t think it’ll be the end of the world if Gebbia transfers. Dude wasn’t good enough to earn job at Nebraska or OSU. Sheesh… Luton beat him out. My gut tells me Smith knows Gebbia has limitations and know he needs qb depth and a big time talent if he’s ever going to win big and sustain something. Keep looking until you find it… and be happy if Gebbia develops
The pro Luton guys picked a bad week to crawl out of the woodwork. He’s not playing a HS defense.
The anti Luton guys picked another week to doubt him… oh wait, that’s every week… again, the Beavs haven’t lost due to offense, it has been our defense… I figured an intelligent outspoken individual would realize that by week 8… but old habits die hard… All these Riley haters sure act a lot like him
The anti Luton guys picked another week to doubt him…
Quote from last week’s pregame writeup:
We’re about due for the “good Luton” to show up, too (i.e. bad D).
Quote from the pre-season.
Luton will have some great throws and a few good games that seemingly validate Smith’s decision, just like Seth and every other bad QB we have had recently. These types of games just confuse the big picture. So yeah, I fully expect Luton to throw for 300 yards here and there and even some 3TD games. I even concede he’d make a good backup.
Pretty much is what he is, a guy who beats up on bad D, and that’s what he always has been and always will be. Friday night is the time to prove me wrong. He’s like 0-8 as a starter versus good defenses; he’s running out of chances to pull it off once in his career unless he gets a 28th year. So I don’t think predicting we get the bad Luton is doubting him or being anti-Luton. It is reality. Live in it.
Edit: Is Washington a good D? I see them 39th on some lists, which is pretty decent, but they’re 57th on other lists. Oregon and ASU are higher and might be the last shots Luton gets a shot at beating a good D.
Angry, where’s your quote on Luton’s stats for a successful season? That was your opinion and I don’t see you quoting it all the sudden… why are you leaving it out?
Edit: Basically what you are saying now is Luton isn’t terrible… he’s only terrible against good defenses? This is quite a change from what you were saying in preseason… what’s interesting is don’t all QB’s struggle against better defenses? That’s why they are better defenses right?
This is quite a change from what you were saying in preseason
No it’s not. Which is why I posted the quote from the pre-season. Luton is exactly what I thought he’d be other than the lack of INTs.
you make a very valid point. A good defense is supposed to limit the opponents offense.
Okay angry lol?
Edit: Now your telling me turnovers don’t matter?
Their YPG is basically the same as Cal’s. They’re top half in the conference, for sure, but not elite like Utah. We should score at least 20.
@chuck I’d say the Beavs lost to Hawaii due to offense. If you score 28 in a half and can’t score a point the second half that is on the offense. (Oh wait Stanford too??) Yes the defense gave up 31 points but you should be able score four or more points on Hawaii.
It’s obvious Luton will perform worse against a good defense. I just worry how much worse. I mean Utah is was like doubted himself before the game even started. The defense didn’t help there but he had the chance to show he could make the same throws against a good team and he didn’t.
I’m hoping he has the game of his life tonight. Go Beavs!
Smith not running the ball in Hawaii cost that game.
Not playing Pierce in the second half. I think that Jefferson’s carries were mismanaged to a degree.
You’re right that Luton is not likely to put up good numbers this week but you ignore that there are 10 other players on offense. If our O line is outmatched and we have no run game, is that the QBs fault? If there’s constant pressure in the pocket, is that the QBs fault? If receivers can’t separate, is that the QBs fault? At some point you have to expand your knowledge of the game to understand that the QB is not playing against air.
Absolutely true, and the wins come when the running game is priority, the passing game is what it is, it is to compliment the running game, not the other way around. This offense has struggled mightily when we Lindgren doesn’t run on first down, or when he goes pass heavy — Hawaii and Stanford are perfect examples of that. Beavs won at Cal due to the mix of plays and great running by Baylor and Pierce, not because of Luton — in other words, an average QB should be able to do the same things he did in that game — the lack of turnovers is impressive, and I give credit to Luton for that, but again Hodgins has saved his bacon a number of times batting down would be INTs. I really don’t mind Luton, he’s proven he’s at least average in the league, which is way better than where the Beavs have been recently — he’s serviceable — but he’s not going to be a world beater. Maybe I have low expectations for this year.
Did you see Utah and Cal where his body language was so terrible many accused him of quitting on the field? Stop blaming others.
Minor thing and still four games to play, but I find it interesting that Luton’s completion percentage is lower than his previous seasons. Not by much, but in general that stat tends to improve as a college QB matures. He may be throwing the ball away more often?
That’s exactly what it is, and I’ve seen quotes from Lindgren about how he “maybe throws the ball away too quickly sometimes”.
Smith gets an A+ for working the transfer portal.
Yeah he’s good at it.
OT: Craig Robinson is on NBA TNT
Your point is……?
PHIL STEELE REPORT (WEEK 7):
#26 Washington at #44 Oregon State
The Beavers have lost 7 straight to Washington by 28 ppg (2-5 ATS). Last year’s trip to Seattle saw the Huskies jump out to a 28-3 lead in the 1Q in the eventual 42-23 win (UW 503-363 yd edge). UW is off their big home game vs Utah and traveling on a short week, but Jonathan Smith is 0-7-1 ATS as a HD. OSU has been a much-improved team this year with road upsets of UCLA, California AND Arizona. Jake Luton is hitting 61% with a 19-1 ratio and RB Artavis Pierce has rushed for 697 (6.2). Last year the Beavers’ defense was #128 allowing foes 124 ypg above their season avg but this year have cut it to 34 ypg above and are allowing 439 ypg. Oreg St was #7 on my Experience chart and I called them at least two TD’s better than last years’ squad in my magazine. UW is just #109 on my Exp Chart and it has showed as they have gone from allowing 305 ypg to Pac 12 foes to 392 this year and have four Pac-12 losses already. UW has taken on most of the Pac-12 powers and has faced the #17 schedule and OSU #46. While UW lost at Stanford, they did beat BYU by 26 and Arizona by 24 in road games this year. QB Jacob Eason is hitting 65% with a 20-5 ratio. My Average Game Grades only have UW by 6.84. Normally Washington would overlook the Beavers, but UW is 2-4 in the Pac-12 and OSU is 3-2. Versus 5 mutual opponents UW is +8 ppg and -6 ypg and OSU is -6 ppg and -30 ypg.
FORECAST: WASHINGTON 37 OREGON STATE 27
POSITION BY POSITION EDGES:
WHEN WASHINGTON HAS THE BALL:
Washington QB/WR vs Oregon State DB’s: WASH +2.17
Washington RB’s vs Oregon State LB’s: WASH +0.46
Washington OL vs Oregon State DL: WASH +0.89
WHEN OREGON STATE HAS THE BALL
Oregon State QB/WR vs Washington DB’s: WASH +0.96
Oregon State RB’s vs Washington LB’s: ORST +0.17
Oregon State OL vs Washington DL: WASH +0.39
MISCELLANEOUS:
Special Teams: WASH +2.17
Kicking: WASH +2.76
Coaching: WASH +2.65
POSITIONAL EDGE AWARDED TO: WASH +12.28
Team Stats (WASH-ORST)
Projected Rushing: 161-164
Projected Passing: 284-241
Projected Yardage Total: 445-405
Projected Final Score: 39-27
Experience Rankings: 109-7
Team Schedule Strength: 17-45
Las Vegas Line: Washington by 10
Las Vegas Total: 65 Points
+/- Ratings: Washington by 8.0
Game Grade: Washington by 6.8
Computer Yards: Washington 445-405
Computer Points: Washington 39-27
Pistol whipping a blind guy
Wasn’t that one of the headlines after the Utah game?
I’m expecting a good size crowd. Parents weekend, all hotels in town plus Albany, and Lebanon sold out. Good game keeps the crowd after half. That’ll be a first in a long while.
I hope so. Went to the Utah game, and my lord it was awe full in the first half, down by 21 in the first quarter. Although, once it was 35-0, people began to lighten up and even laugh a little as the pressure of winning the game wore off.
Looks like 247 is counting Moore against the 2019 class. That means last year’s recruiting class is revised to #10 in the PAC 12! Thats the best we have done since hodgins class
It would be interesting to know why Moore left Auburn (I know those things tend to never come out in any detail). Did he expect playing time as a freshman and wasn’t going to get it. Seems like he has a bright future no matter the university.
From the OLive story he never qualified with grades and switch to his safety route of JC
It would be interesting to hear the back story. Seems like there’s usually some connection, relative/high school teammate/coach relationship/whatever. From his offer sheet it doesn’t look like he even talked to any schools outside of the south. How the hell did he end up out here?
No clue but I’m guessing it will be a good one. Maybe JC connect?
I heard a connection with Trent Bray.
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Click the “embed” link on a given page, then copy that code.
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Really? Not “share” but “embed”…it’s right of the image, four lines down. You click that and it has a line of code that starts with “iframe”…anything short of that you’re just sharing a link.
I’m looking at the code you guys are posting and it’s a href code which is just a link. Not sure why nobody is clicking “embed”.
On youtube the “embed” is right next to the facebook icon. You guys are obviously just copy and pasting their share link not the embed code. It has to say EMBED and start with IFRAME in the code. If not you are just posting links.
That embed tab isn’t there on my Android phone.
Literally, I clicked embed, a window posps up with code on the right and video on the left, select the button in that frame that says copy, then paste here. ::Shrug::
UCLA transfer WR Theo Howard and ASU transfer kicker Brandon Ruiz are on campus for the game tonight
Wow. Howard was a top 100 recruit and Ruiz was on the Groza watchlist before getting hurt this year.
Good golly. Those kinds of guys would never come to Corvallis. Don’t even bother trying.
But I do have an old friend whose son is Honorable Mention All-Conference in Class F 7-on-7 ball in Wyoming. I’m flying out to see his game this weekend.
Imposter! The “real” Mike Riley would be riding his bike out to Philomath to watch a youth flag football game.
I want whatever is best for the Beavs, but I’d love to see Angry’s reaction if Sears comes and beats out Gebbia
Only posted here a couple times years ago but look at this sight for all my OSU news….I guess I’m surprised that no one has addressed the elephant in the room that starting Luton and bringing in Qb recruits is just a signal that this staff just doesn’t think Genoa is any good. I don’t believe we have seen much of a real game sample to know but maybe they are right? I sure hope he is good not just a wasted scholarship.
Gebbia damn auto correct
Genoa makes a mean salami. The staff is wrong.
I don’t think having a guy who was “basically even” with the starting QB in fall camp as your backup is ever a wasted scholarship. Remember 2016?
“Even” with a 6th year Senior when you’re a Sophomore = you’re better than him. This is my main issue with the situation, and that Gebbia just looked more like a natural leader and natural overall. Also has better wheels.
Smith went with experience. His call. And his season results were and will be limited and tied to that decision. I’m pissed because it sets the program back, but in the grand scheme of things none of it matters. I accepted Luton would be the starter all year like week 2 or 3. His stats were there to justify starting even if his leadership and other things didn’t justify it.
You keep the narrative that he lacks leadership. I don’t see it. He was selected by his teammates to be a captain prior to being announced. Unless you are in the huddle or the locker room, how can you just keep spouting this opinion? Is it all body language? Are you maybe just expecting to find it since you’ve been saying it? You have stated this opinion that he is a bad leader as a fact but it is an opinion.
Because when he’s had chances to win games at the end he folded and looked like a deer in headlights.
Regardless of what they think of Gebbia, they have to do something to address QB depth for next year. Even if Gebbia is an All-American, the guys behind him are Willard (who’s never been mentioned as anywhere close to sniffing QB1), Gulbranson (true freshman), and walk-ons.
Adding Nolan, the JC guy, makes sense for depth. If you have the chance to add a guy like Sears who was a top 100 recruit and offered by pretty much everyone in the country, you take it.
I don’t believe it’s a lack of trust in Gebbia’s abilities, it is the steep drop-off AFTER Gebbia.
Exactly
If Sears is better I’ll be happy. I’m not married to Gebbia I just know he’s better than Luton.
Nowadays you could be.
I identify as a football and want Gebbia’s meaty paws all over me.
That cleverness is like a layered cake, well done you creep
HELP WANTED!!! HELP WANTED!!
Are you an FBS football player that is being disrespected/overlooked at your current school? Do any of the following apply:
Not getting enough/any playing time despite being way better than the “coaches pet” playing ahead of you.
Position coach just doesn’t like me.
Roomate snores.
Ex-girlfriend keeps ringing the door bell.
Don’t like the weather.
Don’t like the food.
Coaches always bugging you about going to class.
Well OSU just could be the place your’e looking for. Despite our lack of an airport we are the self-appointed best college town in America.
We are attempting to recreate the magical 2000 season when Dennis Erickson took a band of cast-offs, jucos and misc. odds and ends and fashioned us into a national power, for one year.
So hurry now, take action. Contact JSmith via the transfer portal.
PS: With the exception of discussion on blogs and publication in the Oregonina your application will be held in strict confidence.
PPS: We only have 85 spots available.
PPPS: We can offer that degree in Sociology that is your life’s dream.
PPPPS: Preference will be given to players from Hawaii and Nebraska.
PPPPPS: Swing by Saturday to watch us in action we take on the Huskies, your last chance to see our stadium before 2020. (Ignore the south side.)
Corvallis, OR. The Isle of Misfit Boys
(That didn’t sound right)
Smith has to get over the initial lack of talent. I think it is a brilliant strategy to bridge the gap until he can get his own developmental guys in the system for a couple years. The late start for our academic year should be exploited for all it’s worth.
What’s funny is now people hate Gebbia. Just because I like him. This happened with McM, too. Pretty sad. Gebbia looks awesome. And yet people hate him just because I see he’s got more talent. Pretty stupid.
I don’t even dislike Luton. Said all along seems like a nice guy and will have some big games, and was happy with he got the 20th year because he’s a good backup. I am more angry wit Smith for starting the lesser talent.
Nobody hates Gebbia. They hate you for your tired song. How does starting Luton “set the program back”? What if Gebbias team this year isn’t 4-4 at this point? Maybe recruits don’t look at us the same…
And people are starting to take notice that Smith is doing a damn good job so far… except you.
Gebbias team would be 6-2 and recruits would be taking notice. ;)
Well I forgot he’s drew brees reincarnated, so probably 7-1 at worst
Recruits would take notice regardless because the coaches have put it out there if players are looking for a place to land, come look at Oregon State regardless of where you are in the country. I would be curious to see how other teams are doing in regards to the transfer portal. I have a former FCS college football player as a co-worker and he feels that any player that transfers out and is buried on the depth chart is garbage and you don’t want that player. Which I think is pretty presumptuous if you ask me. Players transfer for different reasons. Some it’s because of academic issues, others its playing time issues, others it’s not being able to relate to the coaching staff because they have their recruiting persona and then their actual team coaching persona.
With that being said, Gebbia has 2 more years of eligibility after this season. Maybe just maybe Coach Smith and Coach Lindgren want to add another Red shirt Jr. QB to the mix next season to not force Gulbranson into having to play as a true freshman? Just maybe the coaches want Gebbia to learn the offense more with an additional year as the backup QB and not the scout QB? Is it possible that the coaches want their QB’s to actually KNOW the offensive playbook, assignments, and not rely on their talent alone to win games?
Except I’ve been bullish on Smith except for the two games he blew. He deserved all the criticism in the world for those and got little because Oregon has weak media that’s afraid to rock the boat. Nice false narrative, though.
People certainly hate Gebbia. Saying he can’t beat out Sears, will quit again, yada yada.
Lol such an Angry response. I’ve been bullish in smith but I dog him too. In other words you can’t be wrong no matter what happens. Just like Luton, he’ll have big games and nice stats, but Gebbia is better. Please retire.
Yeah, Luton is a backup level talent, but he’ll have some good games. Been bullish on Smith all along except when he cost us two wins. These are seriously hard for you to understand? Maybe look up a Venn diagram, and if that doesn’t work consider a 4th grade logic tutor.
Will this Venn diagram show us who hates Gebbia?
You continue to perpetuate an argument that was put to rest by the end of September. Luton outplayed Gebbia in the spring, in fall camp, and Luton further established himself as the starter since the season began. No one hates Gebbia. You must be quite the narcissist to think you have that impact.
Stick to the Bible because you sure don’t know football. #GebbiaAngry2020
It’s great to have all these recruits coming in, but …this still feels like a two-score loss to me. Hope I’m wrong.
Why did Jerry Sandusky run off to JC Penny……
He heard boys pants were half off.
Crikey, thats bad.
Angrybeavs needs to go on a Luton free diet and enjoy a possible program changing upset.
Can’t we all just get along?
It’s a Beaver eat beaver world!
Washington rolls 48-17. Beaver fans on here will be calling for Luton to be benched and for Tibs to be fired.
The hate on Angry who is by definition meeting the standard of the blog (critical view on OSU sports) is unwarranted. If you stop being critical then you are not finding ways to improve. It has been this way since day one with Riley et al; and I would say this blog helped in some form has helped changed that culture.
If you’ve found yourself becoming a Pollyanna and no longer a critic after our first “up” year.. the exit is that way. Take off your orange colored glasses: Luton is a serviceable QB and not anything special. Also, Epstein didn’t hang himself.
Being critical is completely fine.. claiming that you know better than someone who’s proven to be a very good coach is just stupid, not critical. He claims to know better than Casey, Riley, Smith, I’m sure he’ll know more than Canham too. If anyone remembers playing college sports, you most likely know that these guys coaching pac-12 are very good at what they do. And here’s angry, a damn troll who knows more than every coach OSU employs. Be critical all day long. But when you go about it in such jackassery ways, you lose most all credibility
You’re just mad because, in your mind, you know Casey, and he stood you up for dinner and a bubble bath.
Is it trolling? Nobody said you have to come to his blog and read his thoughts. But you keep coming back for more. Easy fix would be to close your browser.
Well for the millionth time, I come here for good info. And as JustJay pointed out, none of it is provided by Angry.
And nobody’s mad, angry, just like nobody hates Gebbia.
Yeah you seem real happy.
Hey a bubble bath alone is still nice.
See that little “x” up by Angry’s name? Click it, and he disappears. Poof
And you can still read. Win/win!
He’s a masochist and loves it. I fill the void in his empty life. The one imaginary Pat Casey used to fill until he stood him up for his bubble bath.
It’s a little creepy how Angry resorts to pedophiliac and homoerotic accusations when his ego is threatened. I wonder what a psychologist would have to say about that.
My ego is impervious.
A great blogger must have this trait.
Deflecting is a you issue.
Nicebeaver, you seem like a normal, reasonable guy. But you look like a fool being Angry’s little white knight.
I was trying to be A@A’s white knight, to save him from the evil Angry.
If I turn on the radio and don’t like what the talk show host is talking about, I turn off the radio. I don’t call into the show repeatedly to tell them they’re stupid. What a waste of time.
Reasonable thing to do for a@a would be to stop reading angry’s site, if he’s bothered by what he reads. It’s good advice. Feel free to use it too.
Wait, what? So Angry is above any criticism? Come on, you can’t believe that.
Criticize me all you want. But at least have the right argument. I was (a) happy when Luton got a 6th year and said he’d make a great backup (b) like Smith except when he blew two games…not being critical of that is not doing your job as a fan. My issue with these bozos is they’re putting words in my mouth and purposely distorting the argument in an effort to discredit the blog. For the record, I said all along I thought Luton would have big games, I like him as a person, and for the record I like Smith, liked the hire from day 1, and was critical of him when he was not learning from past mistakes and blowing games for us. All of that will continue, and if a reader can’t understand the nuance of that Venn diagram they should stop reading for their own sanity. A@A claims it’s some out to always be right, but in reality he is just stupid and can’t understand overlap.
For the 100th time: Luton is a good Pac backup. As a starter his stats are being inflated by Hodgins and weak defenses. Good QBing involves throwing a spiral, working through progressions, winning games at the end, etc. Only impressive thing is his lack of INTs. The rest is all as expected.
McM won’t play for the CFL because they would then have his rights over the NFL. But I’m the stupid one lol
Correct, you are stupid because the NCAA is not the CFL or the NFL. And various other reasons.
You keep saying that. As if they are different games. Do you really think NFL, CFL, XFL, look at him and think man he was really good in college but that’s just a different game… no, he was average at best and had no skill set that would translate to next level.
I really don’t care about the next level I care about this level. So should everyone.
I’ll go 35-28 tonight.
Tulsa?
Nop…. Huskies-Beavs.
Go Beavs!
Responding to a post which seems to have disappeared and which linked to: https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/uw-husky-football/uw-coach-chris-petersens-challenge-in-playing-former-protege-jonathan-smith-you-start-defending-ghosts/
Thanks for posting. From the piece:
Per DC Lake:“They’re doing a great job,” Lake said of the Oregon State offense. “They’re the No. 1 third down offense in the Pac-12. They run the ball extremely well with two good running backs. They’ve got an NFL quarterback that nobody is talking about. This guy will be playing on Sundays. He can make all the throws, and they have the leading wide receiver in yards, catches and touchdowns. So this offense is scoring a bunch of points.”
The author of the piece picks UW to win by 11 and says in another article:
If UW can create consistent pressure on Luton, perhaps the Huskies can force the redshirt senior quarterback into some uncharacteristic mistakes. And if recent history is any guide, they’ll need to snag an interception or force a fumble (or two, or three) to walk away with a win.
https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/uw-husky-football/what-to-watch-for-when-washington-plays-oregon-state-plus-mike-vorels-prediction/
We have a poll up!
https://twitter.com/angrybeavs/status/1192981432114614272
Anyone else surprised by the one sided result of the poll?
71% of voters say Luton will, “put the team on his back and lead the Beav’s to victory tonight”
Haha. Never happened yet, but maybe we’re due for the blind squirrel finding an acorn.
For all the back and forth, the bottom line is that this is an opportunity for Luton to make a statement. I would like him to play out of this mind because I would like the Beavs to beat a good team. Get a true upset. It hasn’t happened in years.
Good post. I’d add that the Beavs D will have a big impact on the outcome.
We continually hear that the D is weak vs the run; never a better time to change that perception than tonight! Between forcing UW to pass and continuing to get into the backfield, the D could actually be the story when this game is over.
The other bottom line is that we should all be a little happy that for the first time in a few years the Beavers have a meaningful game in November. Win this one and the next one is more meaningful. Let’s go Beavers!
Line moved half point. -10.5. not a lot of beaver believers in Vegas.
Got to spread the field sideline to sideline to open up holes in the middle of WA defense. Get the ball out of Luton’s hands quickly with two step drop and slants, bubble screens, move he pocket, drag routes, misdirection with some fly sweeps, traps and draw plays. Beavers have a good shot tonight but can’t try to play WA straight up like they did Utah although WA defense not nearly as tough as Ute’s. If Beavers win, it will be something like 35-32, if they lose it’ll be something like 42-27.
Angry’s game post is now up