Home Football Washington State @ Oregon State (Game Week)

Washington State @ Oregon State (Game Week)

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From what I’ve seen of WSU, they’re very similar to OSU. Ward vs Gulbranson is the matchup of the game. The jury is out on Gulbranson (we need 4 games to fairly gauge), but I thought he looked really good in both games outside of a few mistakes. He throws a lot like Matthew Stafford. I’m not saying he is Stafford, but it’s the QB whose game he most resembles to me just looking at their athleticism and throwing motion.

Every time I watch WSU I am impressed, but Ward has been prone to INTs vs good secondaries, and OSU qualifies as a good secondary. The trend is your friend, as they say, so I’m going to say he throws 2INTs and OSU gets a fumble as well to win the turnover battle and the game. I had this as a loss, but I had USC as a win, so I’m just changing those around.

We need to see more of Bolden in the passing game (and fly sweeps), we need to see Lindgren turn off Madden ’99, kicking game to firm up, etc. A lot could go wrong. But I think the Beavs are slightly better right now and riding that momentum at home.

30-24

251 COMMENTS

  1. 2
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    Per PFF, Beavs are better at every position except LB and DE (including QB where both our QB’s are rated higher than Ward).

    Unless our pass blocking just absolutely collapses, Beavs should win this one at home. It will be important for BG to improve his pocket awareness, though. WSU gets a lot of sacks and I expect them to blitz a lot to make BG uncomfortable.

    The path to the Riley line (6 wins) looks easy at this point. I suspect the team’s goal is still to make the PAC championship (though we’ll need help). This team is capable of grinding out wins with defense and the run game as long as BG can take care of the football.

    • 2
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      If they blitz a lot, then quick slants, TE Dumps(Velling), Draw runs, and limited PA/Deep balls should get their defense to back off a little bit. The inside Flanker Screen that was called back due to a BS holding penalty should be a decent play. Need to limit batted balls in this weeks game if Wazzu does blitz. So watch the throwing lanes.

      • 2
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        42 implies a normal kicking game. You gotta adjust all Beav scores for the kicking problems and Smith shennanigans. Vegas could have a field day with their lines if they realized this.

        • a week worth of practice for the backup long snapper and stitches usually come out after 5-10 days. So I’m not too worried about it this game. Atticus rebounded on the bail out 5 yard penalty and nailed it down the middle after missing wide left. If that were Hayes, he would have missed it wide left, but barely. I have more faith in Atticus than I did in Hayes.

        • 4
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          Colletto in the goal line package for 2 is almost as secure as a PAT. And over the course of hopefully many red zone visits and TDs, the Beavs should at least make up for a lack of kicking, and maybe even come out ahead. But, then there’s Lindgren calling passes and moving backwards…

          Atticus has a great name…sounds like he’d be reading Julus Caeser or Homer’s the Iliad or Odyssey to relax between FG attempts…

  2. Yeah, didn’t see anything to dislike about BG. Looked a lot more comfortable than his midgame relief appearance the week before. Still needs to do a better job of recognizing blitz. How many sacks did Stanford have?? Ugh. Also, other teams will learn to spot his tendencies and keep blitzing until he proves he can beat them. But you can’t deny he throws a better pass than Nolan… His arm is better, his head has to catch up. Hopefully more 1st team reps and the d holds up during games so he has time to catch up.

    Beavs are on a series of breaking records, eight in a row is enough of a streak, this will be the next to fall

    • His biggest problem has been staring down primary receivers. But he seemed a little better at that in game 2. I think I saw him go to the secondary guy a few times at least.

      • 1
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        Half way through the season and feels like we’re starting over again from the beginning, at least as far as the offense goes, and the ST I suppose with the kicking game.

        No identity with the offense, trying to decide who fills in for Musgrave, no bell caw typr RB and not even a makes sense rotation, hair pulling level of inconstancies with the WRs and a fresh faced QB.

        Add in kicking woes, maybe Attiticus is the answer?

        Thankfully the defense has been steadfast. I was leery of Bray but he has more than earned his money. The D will have to be the rock against which the rest of the team dep[ends until they get their footing. Until then it seems like every game will be a nail biter

        • 3
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          I’m not concerned either. I’m not concerned with the sacks either. it’s part of learning. Smith and Lindgren said in media that sometimes a sack is better than an Interception. So he held the ball longer, but was slow to making the decision to scramble/run until the pocket truly collapsed. That’s lack of experience and not knowing the internal clock of when to scramble. Too early and you miss an open receiver, too late and you get sacked. He had run lanes, but he kept his eyes downfield the whole time.

          His first pass in the game was a check down to Fenwick. Right then and there I knew we had a QB and not a gun slinger/Home Run ball QB. Gulbranson has the highest ceiling and it was a matter of time before the coaches made the decision to put in the Freshman in the game and the only way they felt comfortable not throwing him to the wolves was in a blowout like Montana State or if Nolan gets hurt. Nolan getting hurt is unfortunate for Nolan, but 68.9% completion rate is not that bad for a first start. Give BG the start this weekend and ride his progress going into the BYE week. If colorado is as bad as everyone says they are, then we need Gulbranson to start that game and have command of the offense to give him 3 out of the 4 starts that Angry has stated.

          • Yup, the gunslinger mentality was Nolan’s undoing. He should have just leaned into the identity he was establishing as a strong game manager.

  3. 3
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    We’re at the halfway point of the season, so stats are starting to actually mean something (albeit, probably not a lot).

    To everyone wanting to fire Lindgren (lol): Beavs are #21 in the country in offensive yards per play, #4 in the conference behind Nike, UCLA and USC (not taking strength of schedule into account). If you look at the last three games, we’ve actually been better than USC in this regard, even with BG at the helm for half that stretch.

    In terms of points per game, we’re only #81. I’d chalk this up to poor RZ offense and poor kicking. But the takeaway is that the offense hasn’t struggled to move the ball, but they’ve struggled to score.

    For those on the Bray train: defense is making steady improvement at #73 in opponent yards per play (up from #87 last year). Opponent yards per game is up to #54 (and trending better over the last 3 games), though this is likely due to our run game helping control the play clock and limit opponent possessions. We finished #76 in that category last year. Takeaways per game: we’ve dropped to #80 compared to our #53 finish last season.

    Conclusions: so far the D has been middle of the road in the national context, but better than last year. Offense has moved the ball like a top 25 team, but hasn’t finished like one.

    • 6
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      That’s making the faulty assumption another OC couldn’t have the team moving the ball equally well and then finishing drives. You’re implying they’re moving the ball because of the OC and not because of skill players, which is also faulty logic. Anyone who watched the games could easily see the play calling has been terrible. If the stats still say we’re good on offense, it just means we could have been a lot better.

      • It’s not a question of whether someone else could do a better job, but if the chances of finding a better performer are higher than the chances of ending up with someone worse. This isn’t exactly a plumb OC job for someone with other P5 opportunities. Just think about how weak the HC candidate pool was when we hired JS. Most P5 teams recruit better than us on offense, but perform worse. Who gets the credit for that and what does that tell you about your chances of finding a better OC?

        For the record, this has been our worst RZ performance year since the first year of JS and co. During that time, we also finished top 25 in the country in RZ scoring twice, so clearly this isn’t some intrinsic flaw of Lindgren’s.

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      I don’t think offensive yards per play is a good metric…Lindgren’s playcalling definitely results in some big plays but we come up short too often with bad calls in key situations (3rd down, 4th down, etc). We’re overly aggressive a lot when sometimes we just need to move the sticks and not stall out. We need consistency, not a mashup of big plays and failures.

      I think Angry’s “15 year old playing Madden” is a pretty good comp, and also explains that metric pretty well.

      • 4
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        Lindgren has something going and then abandons it. It’s like he assumes the D is just going to stop it because he called it a few times and it worked. So he goes a different direction before they even stop it. Or if the Beavs are running for 5 or 6 yards per play, then get 2 or 3 on the next carry, he stops running because he views that as the D stopping the run. It’s really bizarre. Then he goes for HR plays at the most bizarre times. It’s like he’s trying to catch the defense off guard, but that’s exactly when defenses are on guard. Defenses truly get off guard on things like play action, which has to be set up over time and via consistency. This is the big problem. It’s why the Maddon comp works. We’d all play that game and run once and think we set up play-action and then call a bomb. It might work in Madden, but in real life it doesn’t work beyond the school yard.

        • Except for the fact it has worked but poor passes, drops, penalties, or just not seeing a receiver wide open for the TD. There’s been around 8 blown TDs that were great calls. Those would’ve won the USC game, beat Fresno by more, and kept it closer against Utah. Also the Stanford game wouldn’t be as close.

          • 2
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            ” it has worked but poor passes, drops, penalties, or just not seeing a receiver wide open for the TD.”

            So….it hasn’t worked.
            that’s a big part of why those are risky play calls. Too easy for something to go wrong and make zero progress.

      • I think you’re right. Averages are not often not very useful. Two running backs, one goes {1, 1, 1, 1, 91, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 } and the other { 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 7 10, 9, 11 }. Both have the same average. But, I know which one I would probably trust more. You also need to consider the distribution because the answer to the questions “what is the expected number of yards I’ll get” and “what are the odds I get at least 4 yards” are different.

        • With a small sample size, yes. But over six games, you have enough plays in your sample that you won’t get distortion from one or two big plays like that.

          From a play calling standpoint, you’d be okay with a few 1 yard runs every now and then if they set up a big play.

    • 1
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      ” In terms of points per game, we’re only #81. I’d chalk this up to poor RZ offense and poor kicking. But the takeaway is that the offense hasn’t struggled to move the ball, but they’ve struggled to score.”

      I’ll take “throwing interceptions in the red zone” for $500, Alex.

      • The Redzone problems are because of Musgrave. We didn’t have Red Zone problems before he went down. At least I don’t think so…don’t remember them being a huge deal and in fact I thought we were good in the RZ before that injury. That injury really F’d up the season. Velling disappeared last game. Overman should be getting more time until Velling develops.

        Anyway, Lindgren should be calling more Colletto and runs in the RZ after that injury, and instead he just calls a haphazard mess of plays that make no sense and don’t seem to setup the next play call.

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          Beavs were 14/14 in the Red Zone after the Fresno State game. The RZ issues really have been an issue because we don’t run the ball that much in the RZ. Lindgren wants to pass in the RZ, but we don’t have a big target to throw it to in that situation. So it really becomes 1 dimensional either way. We’re either 1 dimensional passing to get a FG or we’re 1 dimensional running the ball, but we have a better chance with running than passing I feel. Pass on second or obvious 3rd and long instead of passing 3 straight incomplete passes or 2 incomplete passes with a short passing gain. The flanker screen pass worked, but the refs called the holding penalty on Kipper on the backside of the play.

          Once the team gets a penalty inside the RZ, it’s a guaranteed TO or FG at that point.

          • Exactly exactly exactly! Get’s all throw happy in red zone. Pound it in… we have the team for that. Last comment on the the Stanford game is we won the game but we didn’t BEAT Stanford and we should have BEAT them. And again, this is on the coaches not our players even though we have some main positions with back-ups right now. Our core strengths are still in tact and Lindgren abandons them in RZ.

          • Like @ WSU, where the Beavers were 1st and 10 at the 12 yard line, Jefferson and Fenwick(?) were each averaging 6+ YPC, and Lindgren starts throwing the ball. The Beavers move backwards, than on 4th come up one yard short on a passing play.

        • I think Velling and Overman have to step it up. It may not be fair to expect that much of them, but the opportunities should be there for them and they might even be overlooked by opposing defenses. And if the D takes them away, someone else should be open.

          Also, didn’t OSU have an Olineman check in at TE in a game earlier this year, and he was a key blocker on the run play? Maybe give him some reps to give the D something to think about.

        • Velling had an epic clutch catch. Overman has been playing a lot but hes more of a blocking TE velling is the better receiver. I thought Velling looked like a 4 star out of highschool.

  4. 1
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    So I went a little deeper in my 14 Pt stat line.

    Since 2017 to present, Beavs are 18-17 when they score 14 or more points by halftime.
    Since 2017 to Present, Beavs are 3-25 when they score less than 14 points by halftime.
    All losses from 2021 to present have come when Beavs don’t score 14 points or more by halftime.

    2018 – OT win vs Colorado halftime score was 24-3
    2020 – Win over Oregon halftime score was 24-13
    2022 – Win over Stanford halftime score was 17-7

  5. 4
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    Still chuckling over Hank’s answer to our kicking/snappiing issue and possibilities with The Hammer:
    ” He could probably snap it to himself and then kick the field goal.”

  6. This could be an entertaining game and a 6:00 pm start time isn’t terrible. Too bad they couldn’t get a 3 or 4 pm time slot. Its almost tempting to travel to the game. I wonder if they are doing the “standing room” tix again?

    WSU has won 8(!) in a row over the Beavers? Time for another streak to end.

    • I haven’t watched WSU at all this season, records are similar, I feel like beavs are better than last year, even if they haven’t put it all together yet.

      8 win streak for wsu will end this week.

      Book it!

      • WSU started off promising but blowing it against the Ducks and then getting beaten down by USC has taken all the wind out of their sails. I like the Beavs to cover the 3 points.

    • The WSU defense is actually kind of overrated. They had a good performance against a Wisconsin team that turned out to be so bad that their coach was fired. They were shredded by the Ducks though and although they had some moments against USC it was clear that USC was never really worried. The Beavs offense has an opportunity to move the ball on them and could definitely put up 30+ points.

      • Their run D sounds too good to be true at 3.3 YPC or YPA. Its not the NFL in the 70’s…i figured it has to be contextual in that teams preferred to pass or some other reasons.

        Also they go from LA > Pullman > Corvallis, so have a lot of transition time within a 7-day period.

        • Yeah their secondary is pretty bad from what I’ve seen. Wisconsin had no passing game so of course that was a good matchup for them. Nix had his way with them as did Williams last week. BG has an opportunity to shine.

    • Has he been hurt? Maybe that means he won’t be back until ’23?

      Or maybe it means time to turn of the scholarship funds so he can pursue an NFL dream?

    • Carter Bahns on Twitter:

      “Oregon State defensive back Alton Julian will miss the entire 2022 season as he recovers from his ACL injury, @BeaverBlitz confirmed.”

        • Doesn’t mean he won’t be limited in practices this year though right? I mean, he was practicing with the team with a chance to come back. Sounds like he needs more time to heal and get his mental state in the place where he won’t be playing timid.

          • Seems like they’re confident in the secondary and there’s no reason to rush him back. Seems like a good opportunity for him to get fully healthy and be a centerpiece next year. Perhaps there’s been a slight setback too? He’s dressed and traveled so if he truly wasn’t ready to go would you dress and travel? We potentially lose quite a few in the secondary after this year so he won’t be playing backseat to anybody.

      • Just that he was too conservative in taking a knee on the extra point. In the moment, things were not going well, missed kicks and the backup snapper in. The quick math at the end was to take a knee but Smith said he should have called for a high % two point play instead. Likely meaning a Colletto run.

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        He said it’s on him(Smith) for not at at least trying to run a play in that situation and instead opting to be too conservative. (paraphrasing)

  7. OT: With starters out due to injury, Isaiah Hodgins got to play for the Bills as the #4 WR and had 4 catches for 41 yards, with a long of 26, as the Bills boat raced the Steelers 38-3. Nice to see him get some PT.

    Poyer was out due to injury.

  8. Going for it on 4th down is picking up steam in the pro ranks,

    Chargers go for it on 4th and 1 on their own 46, with a 2 point lead. Bailed out by a missed FG.
    Raiders go for it on 4th and 1 from their own 42 yard line. Throw a 58 yard TD.
    Jaguars went for it three times on 4th down and converted none.

  9. 3
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    During his Monday press conference, Jonathan Smith admitted he blew it when calling for a 2-point conversion attempt with @BeaverFootball trailed Stanford 24-16 Saturday. “All of us coaches are trying to learn and grow each week,” he said. “Learning lesson for me.”

    How does he need to learn to kick an extra point? That is scary.

  10. This is going to be lower scoring than people might think. Beavs haven’t proved they can be consistent on offense and this is a pretty good WSU defense. Some key injuries for WSU missing their starting RB, most experienced WR and starting RG is out for first half. Ward isn’t exactly a duel threat guy, but can scramble effectively when need be. It’s the same old game plan with this WSU offense. They’re going to try and dink and dunk, nickel and dime you to death and then try and go deep when they lull you to sleep. I don’t anticipate much of a pass rush because of the style of play WSU throws at you with all the quick hitters. Bray will possibly elect to drop more into coverage, similar to the Fresno State game plan.

    Both of these teams have struggled with turnovers and we could see plenty of them. Beavs will need touchdowns in the redzone, not field goals.

    28-24 Beavs and another game won on the back of this defense.

    • To me it should be low scoring for WSU for the reasons you mention. Their dink and dunk game isn’t at all spectacular against an above average defense. It’s why they always predictably lost to UW during the Leach years. With the injuries and overall negative trajectory, I don’t see them scoring more than 20. The question is, what is the OSU offense capable of? IMO, they should be able to put up 30+.

  11. 1
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    I wanna pick the Beavs….

    Too tough of a call to make right now. Due to Injuries.

    Right now? I’ll say 20-14 Cougs. Reserve the right to change my mind later in the week as we learn who is and isn’t playing.

    There isn’t anyone ledt.on the schedule the Beavs can’t beat if they play (and coach) like they are capable. But for whatever reason, don’t.

    They could also lose most of them. I’m still confident they’ll beat the Buffs and Cal at home.

  12. Regarding Lindgren fucking up the the red zone. Don’t forget that three of the touchdowns against Stanford were outside of the red zone. That Martinez run TD was huge and did a lot more psychological scheme damage than we give credit for. I like Lindgren, don’t necessarily love him. Until he gets out of this team’s way, the scoring will be average. I would like to see him run the ball three and out to prove to me these guys can’t get a TD deep into territory. And he’ll you even have Jack for 4th down if it’s close. No excuses for not “run the damn ball” in the red zone.

  13. 10
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    The biggest concern I have about Beavs putting up 25+ points is whether Lindgren gets bored of running between the tackles. WSU is quick to the flat, quick to the backfield, quick to the sideline but not stout enough between the tackles to slow down a direct running attack. I hope there is a plan to get a heavy dose of smash mouth running, then play action off of it.
    My expectation is that won’t happen because Lindgren is like the scene in Princess Bride with the iocane powder. He will sit all day reasoning “Perhaps you expect me to run the ball, and I know you expect me to run the ball but if I don’t run the ball…you may expect me not to run the ball, to wit I WILL run the ball, but perhaps you expect me to know you know I won’t run the ball, thus you expect me not to run the ball but know I won’t run the ball after all…LOOK over there!

    Beavs win in a grind it out battle and another streak ends in the JS era.
    Beavs 30-WSU 27

  14. Don’t expect to have too much success on the edges in this game. WSU front 7 are very athletic and fast. But then again maybe use their speed against them with some misdirection. They tend to like to stunt and slant to try and get Tfls. Hopefully oline can build off of a good running performance but terrible pass pro. If they get consistent pressure that scares me a little bit with Ben back there.

    • My PC had an issue last night and needed a repair install, and now I can’t remember my password. I signed up with my old email, so I can’t even get a new one. I guess I’m out!

      If you can see my email as the admin can you write me and let me know which I used?

  15. 3
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    Cougs 37-18. Beavs QBs throw INTs, kicking game is a disaster, D line fails to get pressure thus D fails to cause TOs, and wide outs continue to drop passes. Nothing out of the ordinary but unlike Stanford, WSU will make Beavs pay for their shortcomings similar to Utah. I’ll be at the game which gives us a chance since the Beavs have won the last 5 games I’ve attended… taking son down to tour the campus. He’s considering UW, OSU, WSU, and SDSU. He’s looking for big time college experience with an opportunity to walk on basketball team. Beavs might give him the best chance to play D1.

  16. 10

    You guys are overrating WSU’s offense based on their historical production. This is a different scheme and a completely different coaching staff. They are 10th in the conference in yards per game, ahead of only Colorado and ASU. They have a porous OL and not much of a running game. Plus, it’s been 15 years, so Max Borghi is finally gone.

  17. Phil Steele went 2-3 in his straight up Pac-12 picks this last weekend, but went 3-2 against the spread. Overall he is 37-8 Straight up and 18-26 against the spread.

  18. 1
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    So the network viewer ratings came out today. 1.25M viewers for the BSU @ Oregon State Home opener and the game against Stanford was 1.08M. Averaging just over 1M viewers with both games in the late time slot. USC vs. Wazzu was 1.84M on FOX. Would have had more if they chose the Oregon State game I’m sure. But thanks to 5 games on Pac-12 Networks and 1 on CBS Sports where neither networks disclose their viewer ratings we will have one of the worst tv ratings in the league.

    • Tell me you saw the reply to that post by, none other than, D.B. Cooper apologizing for leaving his parachute. I about died.

  19. 3
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    Game thread scheduled for Saturday at 2pm. I’m headed out for a 300 mile, week long bike trip in the AM. Hold the fort, admins! Need to find a stream…going to try that free trial on FUBO, but if anyone finds one that works on a phone please post it.

  20. 4
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    I don’t usually chime in on the pridicto threads, but for some reason I feel the need to on this one. I think the Cougs are a better team, and they never seem hindered when playing on the road. Beavs just seem too rough and don’t have things dialed in, whether it’s play calling or just basic mistakes, I don’t know. Cougs can execute and Beavs can struggle to do just that. Good guys lose by 14.

  21. I’ve noticed sin e Bray has taken over the Lbs tackles have gone down especially the ILBs. Against Stanford 4 of the top 5 tackles were DBs. Plenty of things can cause this but in general you want your LBs making the tackles. If the secondary is making them it usually means theyre getting to the 2nd level and competing lots of passes. Obviously things can affect this like blitzing, loading the box, substitutions etc. I think we’re really missing someone in the front 7 that can make plays in the backfield somewhat regularly.

    • There’s lots of DB tackles because teams don’t pound the ball against us. They throw in the flats, run outside to where the DB’s are or you’re right, they complete a pass down field and our DB’s make the tackle. The better stat to know is what is the average burst or longest run and pass play against the beavs. knowing the number of explosive plays and the average explosive play yardage would give you a better indication if they are getting to the second level or not.

    • There is a lack of TFLs, sacks, and pressure. No doubt about that. I don’t know if Ward is as elusive as Caleb Williams, I hope not. If WSU is doing a quick passing game, the sacks may be very rare again.

      The improved tackling in general is still a joy to watch. Guys don’t give up, guys making open field tackles.

  22. USA Today on QB Rankings, on Caleb Williams:

    “5. Caleb Williams, Southern California (4) – After two spotty games in three weeks to open Pac-12 play, Williams and No. 6 Southern California need to rally before Saturday’s trip to No. 19 Utah. Though more productive than in September’s 17-14 win against Oregon State, when he completed just 44.4% of his attempts, Williams was held to 188 yards and 6.5 yards per throw in the Trojans’ 30-14 win against Washington State.”

    Nice mention of OSU, but I’m also curious about WSU’s apparent ability to limit him @ USC and what that means for Gulbranson.

    • WSU has a defensive coach and a good defense. USC isn’t going to shy away from aggressive play calling with a QB they think is a Heisman contender (but let’s be honest: he really isn’t). I’d expect Lindgren to give Gulbranson less leeway and BG will play to limit mistakes like he did against Stanford.

      WSU’s game plan will probably be to load the box and make Gulbranson beat them by finding the right matchups. His biggest weakness is clearly locking onto his primary target, so the more they can confuse him with different blitz looks and zone coverages, the more successful they should be (similar to how Bray shut down USC).

      USC still put up 30 points on WSU, so moving the ball should be doable for us.

          • Jam Griffin is 5′ 9″…Jacquizz is 5′ 6″ I don’t think Jam Griffin is “Too Small” lol He’s making a comeback from an injury he sustained at GT and I think he came to Oregon State because he was told he would be able to play, but have limited carries to ease him back into a starting role eventually. Pure speculation based on interviews he’s had in fall camp and questions about being in a rotation(which he’s been quoted saying we haven’t seen him go 100% yet and he likes the rotation he’s in to limit the amount of hits he gets week in and week out.

            Is it possible we don’t have an every down back because the guys we do have can’t take that many hits week in and week out? 20-30 carries for 1 back is a load.

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            None of the three guys have distinguished themselves enough to warrant being the lead back. All have had their moments and their not so good moments.

            One skill that all three are lacking is catching passes. This is something that would benefit Gulbranson immensely. Having a checkdown back is needed for a first year starter. If Lowe comes back, he’ll be the primary third down back.

          • Who says they don’t have pass catching skills? Ive seen nothing to support this just lack of opportunities. Pretty much any decent D1 back can catch a check down pass and run. Pretty much the easiest thing ever. Nolan hardly ever threw it to the backs until late last season. He would always throw the deep ball instead of to the guy that was open. Also a large part of the reason the TEs weren’t catching many passes.

  23. 14

    Aidan Chiles looking good so far in his senior year. 76% completion percentage, 13 ypa, and 14/2 TD/INT ratio with another 300 yards rushing.

    • Also, saw his mom responded to a post the other day saying he is getting a lot of offers but doesn’t talk about or promote them due to his strong commitment to the Beavs. Glad to hear that but just like any job offer I’ve had, until the ink’s dry on the signed offer, I proceed with caution! Glad he’s been healthy and able to showcase himself this year!

    • The staff is putting together a very good class. If they can hold on to Chiles, it could be a difference maker.

      Hope springs eternal, even with the Beavers dropping chances live v. USC and facing a potential future of being in a left-behind conference….

  24. 1
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    Just listened to Joe Beaver podcast from today. Spokesman Review beat writer interview left me believing there’s no way the Brave can win Saturday’s game.

    • 3
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      I’ve watched almost every snap of the cougs this year and agree. Based on what I’ve seen, they are the better team… QB advantage WSU, Defense advantage WSU, ST advantage WSU. At least we’re playing at home

    • I live in Spokane. They are such WSU homers it’s ridiculous. EVERY season when they do their preview, they always pick WSU as the surprise team that’s going to win 8-9 games. Even after season where they are coming off 2-3 wins. It’s funny

      • 2
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        Was up in Spokane recently. Enjoyed Cochintio taqueria and Wiley’s bistro in the downtown area.

        In fairness, WSU is better at those 8-9+ seasons than OSU….history of better bowl games.

  25. 6
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    OSU going orange/orange with a black helmet with an orange Benny on it. But the new beaver logo on the mitts…

    https://twitter.com/beaverfootball

    I don’t care for it, think I’d rather see white pants black jerseys white helmet w/a Benny w/brown fur, colored cap.

    Glad to see Benny back, unis won’t matter if they win!

  26. Angry, I just noticed i can edit your picks for the week if you know which teams youre going with. I’ll email the games to you if you want

  27. I’ve noticed Ben likes pat the ball a time or 2 before he throws. I think he’s trying to be careful after the Utah game but if he’s not careful that will allow a guy to jump a route for a pick. Hopefully he can get more comfortable and stop doing it.

  28. WEEK 7 PHIL STEELE REPORT

    Washington State has won 8 in a row SU (6-2 ATS), the longest streak since ’93, winning by 12 ppg. Last time here (‘18) Washington State (+2) allowed two 4Q TD making it 31-28 but recovered the onside kick with 2:38 left and scored a TD to ice the game. Last year Oregon State took a 10-3 lead to halftime but threw 2 interceptions and were outscored 28-14 in 2nd half in a loss as a 4-point AF. Oregon State opened 3-0 then moved to 4-0 ATS in a 3 point home loss to USC. They were bounced by Utah and then in a flat spot and on the road a 2nd straight week, I used Stanford +7 on the Phil Steele Plus tour and Stanford had gone 7 games without leading but scored a TD on their opening drive and Stanford led 17-7 at halftime and 24-10 in the 4Q. Early 4Q, Oregon State on 4&8 got a 21 yd TD pass but the two point conversion failed. They punted then went 66/3 for a TD but 2 pt try was no good. Stanford drove 49/11 for a 46 yd FG with :58 left and led 27-22. Oregon State had a 1st and 10 pass caught by Harrison between two defenders at the 35 and he raced 56 for the unlikely TD and win 28-27 with :13 left. Washington State was out-FD 22-10 by Wisconsin, but won 17-14. Oregon settled for FG’s and gave up a 95 yd IR TD (14 pt swing) but had a 624-350 yd edge vs Washington State before the Cougars drove for a TD with :02 left. Last week I used a Key Selection on USC -12’ and USC drove 82/8 for a TD and 46/7 for a FG and led 10-0, but Washington State drove 92/8 for a TD and 75/5 for another TD and led 14-10 with 11:48 left in the half. USC drove 65/11 for a TD and led 17-14 at halftime. USC punted twice then drove 62/5 for a TD, drove 70/13 and settled for a 27 yd FG and drove 51/11 for a 31 yd FG with 2:08 left, and Washington St did not score on their last 8 drives, a 30-14 USC win. My Average Game Grades have Oregon State by 8.7 as they have taken on the tougher schedule (#11 vs #27) and they are +72 ypg and State is -3 ypg. My projected yards have Oregon State with a 424-292 yd edge. Jonathan Smith is 8-1 ATS as a HF and the clincher is that Oregon State is +129 ypg at home while Washington State is -101 ypg on the road and -9 FD per game on the road.

    BEST BET: OREGON STATE 31 WASHINGTON STATE 20 (ORST -3.5)

    POSITION BY POSITION EDGES:

    WHEN WASHINGTON STATE HAS THE BALL:
    Washington State QB/WR’s vs Oregon State DB’s: ORST +0.48
    Washington State RB’s vs Oregon State LB’s: ORST +1.51
    Washington State OL vs Oregon State DL: ORST +2.27

    WHEN OREGON STATE HAS THE BALL:
    Oregon State QB/WR’s vs Washington State DB’s: ORST +1.03
    Oregon State RB’s vs Washington State LB’s: ORST +0.10
    Oregon State OL vs Washington State DL: WAST +1.06

    MISCELLANEOUS
    Special Teams: ORST +1.48
    Kicking: ORST +1.00
    Coaching Staff: ORST +1.00

    POSITIONAL EDGE AWARDED TO: ORST +7.80

    PROJECTED BOX SCORE (WAST-ORST):
    Projected Rushing: 70-138
    Projected Passing: 220-286
    Projected Yardage Total: 290-424
    Projected Final Score: 21-30
    Experience Rankings: 125-22
    Team Schedule Strength: 27-11

    Las Vegas Line: Oregon State by 3.5
    Las Vegas Total: 52.5 Points
    +/- Ratings: Oregon State by 2.8
    Game Grade: Oregon State by 8.8
    Computer Yards: Oregon State 424-290
    Computer Points: Oregon State 30-21
    Spreadsheet Prediction: Oregon State by 8.5

    OTHER PAC-12 SCORE PREDICTIONS
    California 30 Colorado 20
    Utah 34 USC 27
    Washington 47 Arizona 26
    Notre Dame 34 Stanford 13

    • 1
      1

      Nah. The Beavs play thinking like that; they’ll see that the league has a favorite in the state of Oregon, but needs to prop up the two Washington teams for now. Beavs lead the league in passes defended but expect to get hit with ticky-tack PIs to disrupt their flow then get run all over; on offense inequitable holds on critical downs and lots of Lindgren lip-reading camera shots if the offense heats up. Figure 27-20 Beavs loss.

  29. Kerry Eggers has a lengthy read up on NIL.
    There’s mention of 2 separate OSU “collectives” starting up. One run by Scott Sanders called Giant Killers NIL, and another rumored to be starting soon but unnamed at this point.
    Some quotes in there I’m a little surprised went into the story, like Sanders saying he was approached by JT Daniels dad who wanted a set amount of money for JT to go to OSU, but Sanders doesnt have his NIL set up as a pay to play cash funnel. Instead he is set up more to spread compensation around more evenly to help keep the current SAs comfortable with staying at OSU and not tempted to transfer(in other words, 400k is not in the budget)

    https://twitter.com/kerryeggers/status/1580926078738366464?t=4BnkEj1GBT1Z-7yxHfE5Mg&s=19

      • Seriously. One the one hand, it’s good to hear OSU is finally doung what other schools do, with starting a collective(or 2)
        But on the other hand, it just reinforces more reasons to be turned off by college sports.
        My family has started going to local high school games this fall actually. It scratches the itch at least and i’m more free to spend my time on Saturdays doing non college football stuff

        • Nice call on hs games.

          If the ncaa isn’t interested in enforcement, what happens if coaches/players refused to play games against teams with athletes making 6-7 figure deals? I mean, where are they without the ~11,000 scholarship players on ~130 teams in d1?

      • Based on this season, they probably realized JT can’t bank on making huge money in the draft so they needed to take what they can get.

    • “Sanders heard from one source that OSU tight end Luke Musgrave was offered $100,000 to transfer to Alabama after last season. ”

      “NIL totally not pay for play.”

      • Makes you wonder what the pitch was to keep him at OSU (and what the really story of his disappearance is when he’s still being listed on the depth chart).

    • 10

      This is all exactly what the top tier schools wanted: open and legal buying of players. NCAA won’t regulate it because that’s too much work. So now it’s an all out financial war with no salary cap. I’m astounded that people are willing to spend huge amounts of money just so they can say “my team is better than your team”. Man, the priorities of the human race are f’d up.

        • Likely. But all those people who can afford to spend the money are successful, at least financially. Are they not able to bask in their own glory, or is that just not enough for them? Maybe they’re just so competitive in life that they need to be the best at everything, including at being a college football fan.

          • Think of all the issues that could be helped with this money instead of increasing an already out of control industry.

            It’s going to take fans speaking out or tuning out to change anything. So these programs that are spending this money and bringing in top classes is it really something to brag about?

          • You just made me think of a way to identify what is happening in this world. People are willing to spend more money on their own pleasures than to help humanity. The people who play the game of financial gain to create happiness is what has been shifted long ago. I know for myself, I want to live in a world where money isn’t needed to live comfortably. I’m not talking about utopian society per se, but more in a world where money doesn’t stop people from enjoying something. Would the world really be short on construction jobs or would people who enjoy working with their hands who are in a white collar job because they can earn more money to provide for their family?

          • Been wondering if this is short-sighted. The SoCal teams suggest that media revenues are more important than full stadiums. Suppose that’s true for national brands, but college football seems to hold value still in regional or simply local/alumni brands. Maybe with NIL the top ~40 teams get slightly better and the bottom 90 significantly worse when they lose a star or two, but they’re only fielding 11 players at a time. Sounds like a junior-pro league. How much revenue do the top media outlets lose when regional fans tune out to watch highschool games or turn to the “left-outs” D1b invitational CFP on amazon or…? I guess you keep playing body-bag games against the top 40 for revenue, but maybe they won’t need to. Plus, it’s got to be weird playing on a team where one guy is making 10-100x anyone else.

          • Even Nick Saban is concerned…
            ““The biggest concern is how does this impact and affect recruiting?” Saban told reporters. “There are a lot of people using this as inducements to go to their school by making promises they may or may not be able to keep in terms of what players are doing. This creates a competitive balance issue between the haves and the have-nots — and we are one of the haves.””

            and we are one of the haves
            That’s a hell of a statement

          • Hm. Dude may actually have an ounce of integrity.

            Or, he’s pissy because everyone else can now do out in the open what he’s been doing behind closed doors forever.

  30. No news this week is good news for the Beavs. Nolan status is unknown and Smith won’t say until game time as he’s done in the past. Lots of eyes will be on Nolan in pregame.

    I wonder if Nolan is healthy, he is used for some gadget plays. WSU would not be prepped for that.

    WSU is missing some key players this week but they aren’t super important to their system. The one impact missing player is their starting RG, Stephens. The play after he was ejected, they gave up a sack.

    WSU’s offense runs through their QB. I know he’s been marked as elusive but he’s no running QB. He’s got negative rushing yards on the year due to sacks. I’d say he can escape the pocket when given a wide lane but he’s not making something out of nothing or converting a 3rd and 10 on his own.

    WSU is down their starting RB but have a capable backup. They also lost a WR but they play a lot of guys so it’s not much of a net loss.

    Beavs defense matches up decently with WSU. WSU will have to dink and dunk down the field to move the ball. The pass rush will need to stay in their lanes and collapse the pocket. Coverage will need to make Ward throw into tight windows. Soft coverage isn’t going to work.

    On offense, the beavs matchup fairly well. WSU defense’s rep is being pumped up but it has its weaknesses and they matchup with the Beavs strength. Beavs should be able to run on WSU and with three running backs, they’ll all be fresh throughout the game. They will have to mix it up with power runs and sweeps by the WRs. Can probably get them to bite hard on play action.

    I would expect Gulbranson to have a hiccup or two here. He’s still raw. Hopefully the coaches put him a position where he doesn’t have to win the game with his arm. There won’t be any magic provided this week.

    Beavs path to victory is to go up early and keep WSU’s offense off the field with the running game. If the Beavs face a kick of over 40 yards, might expect them to go for it.

    • Ward’s pocket presence is really good and he is elite at moving around and dodging sacks to setup throws but is not very fast.

      WSU is one of the top teams in the nation in sacks and TFLs. Need to minimize the negative plays. The like to guess with slants and run blitzes to get their opponents behind the sticks. The sacks are concerning with Gulbranson since he already got sacked a ton against stanford who sucks at getting them.

      Need to really work the run and wear out WSU undersized front 7. Their front 7 are really fast so IDK how effective fly sweeps and outside runs will be but still have to try some. I would like to see lots of WR screens as an extension of the run game especially to Harrison.

      Glad Smith isn’t coming out and saying who’s starting at QB for once. Hopefully they’re having to prepare for both.

      Should be a really good game and go back and forth. By the fourth quarter the consistent run game and home field advantage should allow the Beavs to pull away.

      28-24 Beavs!

    • Beavs should win this one just based on the momentum differential and the fact that its home. Although these teams are basically identical talent wise. X-Factor this week will be the coaches, Smith vs Dickert. Dickert is a pretty good coach IMO and will probably be a candidate for the Wisconsin job.

  31. 1
    2

    I guess the flip side of this is that a lot of the guys getting big money are not from top 10% socioeconomically and they’re bringing in the kind of money that can significantly change their family history. It’s not like NIL money is being thrown into a vacuum (like money that goes to building nice locker rooms).

    If the rich donors just gave that money to a lower income family (unrelated to football) wouldn’t people cheer them on for being generous?

    I’m not saying every NIL instance is this way (far from it), but there’s definitely some good coming out of this whole thing.

  32. 1
    11

    Beavs think they got it in the bag playing at home. Too many mistakes and gambling lead to a big loss (Exhibit A: 2021, Exhibit B: 2020, Exhibit C: 2019)

    WSU 37 – Beavs 21

    • 11
      2

      A few seasons back, I think Max Borghi, WSU running back, said [paraphrasing] “we WILL become bowl eligible” in reference to playing the Beavers. And they did.

      Do the Beavers have the guts to win tomorrow when it could have a huge affect on their bowl eligibility?

      Its not about being well intentioned, or “family.” Do you want to win bad enough to make it happen?

      Competitive game looms. As OSU football growss in athlete quality, their competitiveness grows. They SHOULD be able to win this game at home. If not, bowl aspirations are meaningless.

  33. 11

    Retro Benny flag flying in the tailgating lot outside Memorial Stadium at the U of Illinois in Champaign, Il.
    Go Beavs! Behold the power of the rodent!

  34. Not much going on at the fair grounds this morning when I passed by, and downtown wasn’t really buzzing, especially for a homecoming weekend. Where’s all the people from out of town? Seems unusual. Maybe all the alum were on campus, we did meet Luke Loecher dad and aunt at Squirrel’s though. He’s thinking he may go pro next year. Who is next in line?

    • Here’s an event Friday night, did you catch it?

      https://www.fororegonstate.org/stay-informed/impact-stories/detail/oregon-state-university-announces-second-campaign-with-1-billion-already-given-toward-1.75-billion-goal

      Corvallis, Ore. – Oregon State University and the OSU Foundation on Friday launched Oregon State’s second university-wide fundraising campaign, Believe It: The Campaign for Oregon State University.

      Donors have already committed more than $1 billion to the campaign that seeks to raise $1.75 billion to support OSU priority initiatives, including student access and success, faculty positions, academic programs, research, statewide community engagement programs, OSU Athletics and facilities on OSU’s Corvallis campus and OSU-Cascades campus in Bend.

      The OSU Foundation hosted a campaign celebration Friday night. More than 500 donors, alumni, students, faculty and other stakeholders gathered on the university’s Corvallis campus Memorial Union Quad during Homecoming Weekend to formally mark the beginning of the public phase of the Believe it campaign and hear stories about what philanthropy and involvement with OSU can make possible.

      Anyone in here donate to OSU with any regularity? I sometimes donate to the Dept. of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Sciences, but not annually. Looks like that school is having a BBQ tailgater today for Homecoming…

  35. Well my dream of a Rose Bowl before the dirt nap died on my Gopher side today. Come on Beavs! Keep hope alive so you can crush me at the end of the season!
    Wazzu……Coug it!!!

  36. This asshole on the pac network that’s doing the games with Yogi is hod awful. He desperately needs to be replaced. He doesn’t even know what he’s talking about or understand the rules.

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