as I noted in the last thread, Trump’s pathetic need for praise is his Achilles heel. Has anyone done a psychological profile on this syndrome, generically, as opposed to Trump specifically, which would, inevitably, take on a tendentious tone.
TDS truly exists, and we see a little bit of it on this site. As I said on the previous thread, aspects of Trump’s behavior are truly problematic, but he’s not always wrong. What is equally problematic is the stilted coverage of him in the news. For example, just this morning NPR took after Fauci and Birks, suggesting that they are compromised simply because they appear on a stage with the guy. As if we’d be better off if the press drove them off? As Biden would say, “c’mon man!” So let me conclude with this: I try to apply the foundational premise of this site–critical thinking. I’m not a Trump cheerleader, or an opponent. I merely try to help explain how he got to be president and what he’s trying to do, even if, as is so often the case, he can’t verbalize it himself because of self-evident personal limitations.
I get it. To me him dropping these nuggets are terrifying. He literally said that he directed the guy in charge of response to not.csll governor’s who don’t appreciate him. Then he jokes that Pence will do it anyways. Then he spends ten minutes equivocating that not appreciating him is the same as not appreciating the efforts of healthcare workers, armed forces, army corp, first responders or people risking their lives keeping the essentials going.
So what if Pence follows orders and stops talking to governor’s who aren’t helpful? What I’d they prioritize supplies and aid to states that are the most appreciative.
I watched all 1 hr and 37 minutes and it was like a horror movie. For people who want to defend his response please explain why we are doing so badly? Is the deep state doing it? I’m confused how him literally saying this stuff means I’m derranged. Sounds like supporters are normalized to his words and actions.
The amount of “terrifying” stuff he’s said that has actually come to fruition is FAR outweighed by the stuff that hasn’t. He’s an elderly narcissist with no filter under a tremendous amount of pressure and holding the loudest microphone in the world. He has a hard time articulating what he means so he speaks in very plain language (a blessing on the campaign trail, a curse at the podium). “Appreciate” can mean any number of things with someone like this. It’s anyone’s guess what he actually means.
I’m not a Trump supporter, but those who oppose him probably have healthier ways to spend their time than agonizing over every little thing he says when his words mean so little. The fruit of all this worrying has been…what, Joe Biden?
Worry about what you can control, not what you can’t.
Has anyone seen the series “Survivors?” The few episodes I saw were pretty good and even had some humor. A flu epidemic wipes out most of the world, and a cast of characters carries on. Lasted 2 seasons I think…the second series was atually delayed a season by a flu epidemic. Anyhoo, you might check it out for fun…
Seem Mohave settled into a new routine;
Read newspapers on line
Check stock market
Check AngryBeavs
Walk outside
Read… so far…. finished Grant, American Dirt, working on Washington
lunch
nap
check stock market
check AngryBeavs
In house weight work out
walk outside with wife
watch Netflix… Tiger King, McBillions (so far)
tv news
check AngryBeavs
watch Netflix with wife…. Narcos Mexico just started Ozark season 3
read… lights out
Repeat…
As a retired person with the exception of not being able to go the gym, restaurants, movies or friends homes, it’s not all that much different.
We, luckily, had just returned from a month in Mexico, so travel urge is under control for awhile. Will probably be canceling an up coming trip in early May.
Hang in there… buds. We’ll get through it and back to bitching about important stuff, like football, pretty soon.
That fits my instinct of mid May to June seeing a leveling in rate of growth. Was just basing it off quick math in my head. From now til early May is going to be bad.
Great interview with Kiril Sokoloff on Real Vision this morning.
Raoul Pal: He said, so that leaves a economic situation where it’s not eight weeks. It could be eight months. It could be longer. Andhe said, the problem is the government, all the businesses, and all of the people run out of money in about three months. And he said, they don’t have the ability to print money. He’s like, I don’t know what happens. And I thought that was a very honest thing to say, because that’s a true fact, is when you shut down supply, demand, and consumption all at the same time, the government can’t just print enough money to cover the entire GDP, because you destroy–and this has been one of your core points for a long time–is you destroy the monetary system that you built it on.
SOKOLOFF:Yeah, that’s exactly right. I have a theory about it all. And I’ve felt for years that the rate of change was unbearable. There are few people, Ray Kurzweil, Singularity, it’s people who can deal with this change and allow this degree of change. But for 99.9999% of the world, it was just unbearable. And what happened is that essentially, the human species just had a nervous breakdown, that’s what happened. I’m looking at it from a different standpoint. And there’s a wonderful quote by Pascal that, “The hardest thing in the world and the cause of all the problems is that man can’t sit quietly in a room by himself.” Well, hello. Here we are, and we’re going to be thinking and pondering, why did this happen? Why weren’t we prepared? Why were we rushing in this direction? Why were we so mindless? And I think it will start to hit a lot of people. And I think there’s a spiritual component to it as well, which is, it’s going to be very hopeful and good. But out of the worst tragedies come some of the best changes, but the pain is going to be agonizing.
Real Vision had a 3 month trial for $1, so if that’s still available jump on it. Very good content. Good way to spend down time.
When he said “I have a theory about it all. And I’ve felt for years that the rate of change was unbearable. ” did he have more context about WHAT change? Was he referring to supply/demand/consumption?
Have you ever read Panarchy? You should give that a try: Panarchy, Lance Gunderson & C.S. Holing
One of my favorite quotes in it: “the ultimate pathology of such…resource exploitation and management examples is to create less resilient ecosystems and more rigid institutions, and deeper social dependencies. “
If he’s talking about Ray Kurzweil, probably just the general rate of human change. RK is considered “The” Futurist.
Think about how much smart phones changed humanity over the course of 5-6 years (the exponential period) and even since then. That’s just one technology.
So many other foundational institutions of American society have changed in a generation: college, housing affordability, etc.
Too much debt bringing too much of the future into the present all at once. Unfortunately, now the pendulum is reversing direction with the same inertia and the impact of that debt/spending will hit us with a similar magnitude, but in different ways.
“NEW: CDC guidance on masks expected to change in next 10 days. Americans will be advised to wear masks in everyday life. Current recommendation is for high-risk groups only.”
Local kid was trying to import 12 cases of masks to send friends around the US and US customs confiscated them. Maybe that’s the new US strategy for supplying masks?
stupid comment: but is that better, worse, or equal to the NYC public health official who, at the same time, was telling people that here’s nothing to worry about and go out and enjoy the lunar new year?
My RN wife has 4 from an old job and 2 a customer donated to her, she’s locked and loaded. ;^/
I agree, get them to health care workers first. That’s why my concern for any recommendation stating everyone should wear them…there are not enough already.
They come from the SEIU who was secretly hording 39 million mask and just miraculously found them. That SEIU is the one representing heath care workers on the west coast. The union found a distributer to sell them for $5 a piece. That’s a 600% mark up if you were wondering.
It’s being played off now, the SEIU is stating they only found a distributer that had the stock not them. So now who do we believe? And who is the scumbag that was keeping these from the health care workers? Either the SEIU had them and is trying to make them selves look good, but why put out a press release like this? Or a distributer was sitting on the stock while hospitals were crying out for help. Seems the hording law the DOJ put out should be used for this, especially since they’re marking them up so much.
And, who the hell forgets about 39 million masks? It’s not like they found that in a coat closet somewhere.
I know the guy is under alot of pressure, but what does this even mean?
Trump seems to think if we didn’t have his specific staff in place and we need to appreciate the “helluva job” they’re doing, because without them, we “wouldn’t even have a country left”?
Wow, didn’t realize things we were this close to not existing anymore. Now I’m thankful and will certainly kiss the ring. Nobody else could do the job they’re doing.
Unpopular opinion but will age well just not today
The government may end up doing a great job but this board often fires a coach 5 minutes into the first quarter. I know some people here are very gifted in statistics , angry for sure. Listened to Coumo today in his press conference and you will see the real data that the media hides or if it comes from the white house is not believed.
US has tested more people than the rest of the world. They have tested more people in 8 days then SK did in 8 weeks. 86% who have symptoms are negative. 95% who have it and are mild to less. 3% who catch it will die , extremely rare for someone without underlying issues to die.
The time line is based off China telling the truth. China had 21 million cell phone cancellations last month. Are we believing it did not start in November still?
Trump called racist and blasted in the media when starting to lock things down, flights from China. Dude cares way too much about what people say about him to continue and do the right thing. His Achilles heel is reading the press clippings. Has they worked togther instead of play politics would have worked well. Public is stupid and will re elect every congress person. My wife works for the local hospital in Oregon the flood was to start today and they are now claiming model was too fast it is next week now.
Oregon has more vents and ICU beds available today then yesterday.
If the projected numbers are correct it will be devastating but the data in is almost opposite. But they are never going to come and the week lock down will be extended twice until public pressure is too much.
Cuomo’s press conferences are great. Trump would be well advised to model his after New York’s, clicking though slides, etc. Trump would be averse to that, but some combination of Pence, Fauci, and Birks could. And I agree with your main point: Cuomo actually paints an encouraging picture, but when Trump tries to do it, he gets blasted. Today Cuomo reiterated that the rate of hospitalization is falling but that the public (because of the media) only tracks the cumulative outbreak. The press corps is too stupid to realize that the policy nexus is the rate of increase, not the total number of cases, hospitalizations, deaths, etc.
Angry, I’m intrested in buying some stock with a chunk of stimulus money coming. I have a pretty good nest egg saved up, and a good broker that I trust, but I’d like to mess around with about $1500 on my own just to amuse myself for awhile.
What are your thoughts about what we might see in the near future with the market. I’m thinking about getting a Robinhood account and investing in as couple of things in the short term just to see what I can do.
Mind you this is for fun and absolutley not serious. I really don’t want to do penny stocks or none sense like that. Just buy into 1 or 2 companies and see what happens. What do you think?
Hey buddy. My biggest and most confident positions are AMZN, GOOG, ISRG, SQ, and V.
Some value stocks. IBM, DFS, XLNX, GPC, BBBY (Target CFO hired/turnaround story if they survive this…great balance sheet), ABBV, SO (wait for 40s).
Some speculative stocks with a bright future: TWTR, TWLO, NVDA, NSTG, CRSP, SSYS, ROKU, JNK (FED has to buy all junk bonds, so I’m front running it). I also think NFLX is a winner, but I don’t have a big stake in it or know where it fits. Telsa becomes interesting in the mid 300s. I bought some there but sold it in the 500s. A lot of this will depend on your age. If you’re older go for beaten down value; I could make a full list of those.
Average into all positions slowly with like .25 shares per purchase. Never go all in at once. Also only buy on down days. IMO the overall indexes have to drop at least another 20% to mean revert to fair value, and that is being generous, so I’d average into any position VERY slowly because even stuff that is cheap/awesome will get pulled down further with the overall market. Stocks, on average, are actually more expensive now than a month ago because they only dropped 20% yet their earnings might drop as much as 40-80%. Keep that in mind because it seems to be fooling everyone — price means nothing with no earnings. As investors we don’t know the “e” in the P/E ratio, so everything is a guess, but we can assume at least a 40% drop in earnings. Thus they are pricier now on a P/E basis than in February, hence more downside. Good luck.
For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice of course.
Thanks for the list, Im also looking at aerospace and defense stock. I have a line on one that feeds SpaceX material and with them dumping a few rockets in the ocean recently I’m speculating contracts for new materials are going to be signed soon with Elons starlink hanging in the balance.
Do you think we have seen the bottom yet or are we do for another drop soon? I’m pretty much looking for a jump off point.
I hate Aerospace, having worked in the industry (I actually was at the first Space X launches) and worked for a contractor with them. It’s all govt contracts and teat sucking, which is an awful business model. I tried to warn NiceBeaver about Boeing when it dropped from 350 to 310 on the Maxx news, and he was looking at it. I hope he didn’t buy it. But I said, “That’s a $50 stock”. I stand by that. Teat sucking is not a business model. Those companies should and all will be nationalized. IMO way better opportunity in legit growth patches, which are mostly in up and coming tech and some old guard tech. Take IBM — they’re shitty, old guard, but they have hired the most blockchain engineers of any company over the past five years. I’d much rather put money into the future than an old, dying, government teat sucking industry. But I look for organic growth over crony capitalism. It really depends on your preferences and beliefs.
Which SpaceX related company are you talking about? I can look at the balance sheet.
No, I don’t think we’ve seen the bottom. As I said, but let me reiterate: stocks are a function of price to earnings (and many other things like the balance sheet, but in a basic sense). The P/E ratio. Let’s say for any given stock the price is $100, and earnings per share is $10. P/E ratio is 10. Let’s assume that was any given stock in February before corona. Now let’s say the same stock is down 20% and costs $80. Yet earnings dropped 40% to $6 per share. The P/E is now 13.3. So the stock is actually more expensive despite the stock dropping 20% (i.e. a 13.3 P/E > a 10 P/E). Hedge fund managers and professional money understands this, but a lot of retail investors don’t, so they’re thinking, “20% drop things are cheap!”…only if the “e” remains the same, and the odds of that after corona are near 0. We can see earnings decline for some companies by as much as 80%, so that would make their P/E 27 in the example above. Way more expensive. For this phenomenon alone, I don’t think we’ve seen a bottom. Now, the FED is in markets trying to stop this by printing 6 trillion and the Treasury is handing people checks. If you think that will work, and to the degree you think it will work, then you get closer to your “e”…only if there is zero drop in earnings are stocks cheap, and that just seems so implausible to me. But if you believe that then things are actually cheap. April earnings and the forward guidance on those calls will clarify things. For these reasons, I’m only nibbling at companies I love right now, and it’s what I’d recommend to anyone I care about. Pick things you love and go in slowly with partial share purchases/dollar cost averaging.
Not advice, just opinion/for educational purposes.
On P/E, is there a sweet spot to buy at? Or are you better off with a lower number as opposed to high?
This is all new to me btw, if you ever get around to doing a podcast, reading the market in layman’s terms should be it. I look at the daily market numbers page for individual stocks from marketwatch. I would love to know what it all meant.
In general, lower P/E is better. In general. Way more too it. I was just trying to explain why the stock market is more expensive now despite the drop. Did that math make sense?
Anyone who has been able to keep their job and income through this should be giving the $1200 to local businesses. Seriously, that’s who the stimulus is for and that’s who should get it.
Well most will be used to pay bills and purchase goods mostly food I would imagine. That’s why the stimulus bill gave small businesses 370 billion so they can keep the doors open and cover payroll. It even turns into a grant so long as the business doesn’t layoff workers after receiving the loan.
Anyone who has been able to keep their job and income through this should be giving the $1200 to local businesses. Seriously, that’s who the stimulus is for and that’s who should get it.
Given Amazon’s employee record, I have trouble investing there. Doesn’t make a bit of difference. Amazon will the world, especially now.Just makes me feel better.
I went to there SEA campus and bio-domes where they have I think 40K employees. They have a crazy culture and encourage the old mining-town-script mentality. The day is broken into 30 minute increments; most meetings “should not take more than 30.” If you get done in 25 minutes, they “give you back 5,” so you can use it to run to their store with facial recognition software, and no tellers, buy your groceries, and just charge it to the employees account.
Dogs are welcome one at work if can get a majority of your “cube mates” to vote their approval, so 3 out if 4. There are a total of about 3K dogs brought to SEA campus. Cats and any other pets are unwelcome.
The domes have diverse plant species with appurtenant, diverse requirements for temperature and humidity. It’s novel, and creates attention, but seems like a bizarre, unnecessary expense.
Their main expenses is power to run their data centers, which constantly crunch data on demand, supply, delivery, and consumer habits to guide (direct) the user on their website.
I think they’ll have a long future, but at some point will need to pare back on some of the novel expenses and practices.
Most of those companies are building solar energy farms to run their data centers. Smart.
Those who speculated in useless desert land probably getting good prices.
I am grateful for many things but after reading the description of the “SEA campus with biodomes” – grateful most of all that I have escaped (and will probably never be imprisoned in that workplace.
Just an alternate perspective/reality: your best use of that money might be food. Very few investments will outperform food over the next few years. I know it’s boring. But it’s not a bad idea until the stock market bottoms (probably six months to a year or so, barring a vaccine). Housing might have a rough patch. Other investments like gold aren’t even a sure thing given the demand for dollars. Food has everything working for it.
Oil stocks/energy commodities are interesting for brass ballz types who can wait a year, too.
I’m ready for the Big One here. We could stop buying food today, and I’d still be eating good well into july. I have a hand crank well pump for my well( I have water at 10 feet) along with filters. And between myself and neighbor (training partner) can arm and supply at least a platoon size group.
Fresh eggs at damn good and very different from store bought. I’m lucky to have a neighbor that offers them for 3.50/doz, though he hasn’t sold since lockdown. keeping them fir himself and I don’t blame him.
I haven’t done chickens yet, maybe someday, I need to get the kids on board with it. They want some, but don’t understand they won’t stay baby chicks forever.
And I have an alternative anyway, Bassett Hound burritos as and Chesapeake bay retriever fajitas. This is a running joke with my wife ever since I got laid off 3 years ago (I’m working now and much happier). I told her if things got real bad there’s always the dogs. She asked about the cat and I told her they’re to stringy.
I highly recommend chickens. We just restocked our thinned out flock with 20 chicks. They are pretty easy to keep and the eggs are fantastic. And it is something easy to do with your kids though I understand the young ones just wanting the chicks.
That’s where I’m at with chickens. My boys are big enough to help out and understand how it goes. I have the space, my only concern is making sure the dogs stay away, and I need another job like I need a hole in my head.
We have three chickens, definitely not enough to keep up with a family of four, especially so during the winter.
We supplement with eggs from local farm Winn Farms, highly recommend them if you’re local to Corvallis and can’t have chickens, or like us, need more occasionally
I’ve had thoughts of fencing off the back end of my property behind my shop where my garden beds are. Could put a coop back there and let them do their thing. I hear they’re hell on snails. Do they peck at garden vegetables?
Crap, I was hoping I could just let em patrol the beds. My garden beds are already raised but only about knee high, so I’m sure they’d be able to get in and out.
I also have a raspberry patch and about 10 blueberry plants around the back of my house and shop. When I first bought my house I had a lot of flowers and other nice plants. As time went on I started to get a bit annoyed at putting in time/money/effort and getting only flowers in return. So I started pulling out the pretty stuff and replacing it with plants that give back for my effort. I still have a massive butterfly tree and an old growth wisteria back there that keep the bees happy.
My neighbor apparently thinks he’s going to do a full frame off restoration of a 1984 Cutlass Supreme in his front yard in the rain starting now. Going over to punch him in the face now. If his giant swamp donkey wife has anything to say about it she can get some too! Wish me luck God speed and go beavs
Get your city involved. My neighbor tried that with a burned out Mercedes to restore for his grandson, supposedly. He was cited for: non-running vehicle, illegal parking and expired plates. Given forty eight hours to remove before it wad towed and he incurred fines and towing expenses. He never knew I ratted him out.
Just checking in to let everyone know that wiping with carrot greens is not very effective and invariably you get some on your hands and your bum doesn’t get very clean either. Time to start hoarding tp!
I suppose you could chop the greens off with a little of the carrot attached. Gently insert and viola you can grow your own carrot and not need to take a dump until the carrot has reached a good eating size. Pro tip :sunbathing nude with the booty up with make them grow faster
Today, after 3 hours of pressure washing, I was able to convince my wife that I had earned some nap time. My strategy for tomorrow is that one shouldn’t work on the sabbath.
I see the Ducks MBB has advanced to the Elite Eight in the mock NCAA Tourney being “played out” by the fish hack in Portland. I’m sure they’ll have the Ducks winning it all because they’re that damned good. LOL!
It must truly be the end times apocalypse.
You can pump your own gas in Oregon!!!! OMG.
So they are throwing the “safety” issues under the bus, LOL.
Question for the locals, if you have an electric car, does someone have to plug it in for you?
That gas pump handle has to be one of the worst surfaces to touch. Everybody in the community touches it. Many likely don’t wear a glove or clean their hands. Then you get back in your car and touch every surface with the same hand, eventually wiping your nose with the same hand.
That and the self checkout stations at grocery stores have to be some of the biggest culprits in spreading this virus.
This whole thing is making me consider the idea of installing copper doorknobs and other hardware in my home. That’s one surface that has been proven to significantly reduce the chance for survival of microbes. It’s interesting to read about the history of copper and past pandemics, how people who worked in trades that involved frequent contact with copper surfaces had a pretty good history of being unaffected by community spread.
My understanding was they were supposed to stay staffed unless/until staffing ran out and then the new order was meant as a stop gap so stations dont have to close entirely.
If you have a diesel vehicle you could always pump your own fuel in Oregon. The rules for no self service only apply to class 2 fuels (gasoline) but not class 3 (diesel, kerosene).
Same goes with silver. Rich folk back in the day carried their own silver spoon(s) as class symbol and as antibacterial (doesn’t kill viruses though). Didn’t realize copper kills viruses too….?
when Oregon was still the only state to allow physician assisted suicide my son quipped–“Isn’t Oregon great, you can kill yourself but you can’t pump your own gas.”
Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson have been released from their Australian quarantine and are back in LA.
Their experience with the illness wasn’t too bad. But what I found interesting is reading their list of symptoms they experienced, it reads exactly how I felt the past 15-16 days. First symptoms arriving late Saturday, 2 weeks ago. Off and on symptoms persisting for 2 weeks. Mine was also accompanied by some of the “crud” type of coughing during the last week. Nothing severe, just this lingering illness.
I read this as a good sign that some of the early rounds if people who got this illness are now recovered and those numbers will continue to grow. Unfortunately, some people do experience a much more severe illness, but I’m hopeful this illness is going through the motions and leaving a mostly healthy population behind.
Both parents started out pretty similarly but the bronchial symptoms progressed much more rapidly and turned into a lingering case of pneumonia that lasted for weeks.
My mom got it pretty early on, like Feb 21st. She still coughs a little, but is otherwise back to normal. She never was offered a test. I dont think Oregon even had testing available that early. Doctor’s saw her twice. First time diagnosed it as bronchitis, but a few days later diagnosed it as pneumonia.
My dad’s started in early March and he’s quite a bit better now but still coughing also. He got tested on about day 2 of his pneumonia symptoms and tested negative.
The skeptic in me thinks he may have already been past the Covid19 virus by the time he got tested, and it had already turned into pneumonia. As I understand it, the test only is testing to see if you currently have it, not if you HAD it.
Neither parent has ever had a severe illness like this before, which makes the whole thing even more suspicious.
But the good news is, everybody is on the mend of nearly back to normal now. The worst part is the being stuck at home and my brother getting furloughed because his business isnt operating at normal capacity.
I’ve heard a lot of cases get misdiagnosed as pneumonia because covid fills the lungs with water. They very well might have had it. I wonder if they can get tested down the road to see if they had it (anyone know if they can test for the virus being dormant in the system?) or see scarring on the lungs. It would be interesting to know if that was what they had. Good sign that they’re old and survived it okay. I’m very concerned about my parents, so it gives me some hope.
The best way to test if you had it would be to look for the antibodies… at least how I understand it, Once they can test the antibodies the could do random sampling and determine how widespread it was and also calculate a way more accurate death rate.
My family had real similar mild colds that persisted for like 10-14 days. Kind of hoping it was COVID because my wife works around COVID patients and that’d mean she/we have some immunity or at least we can make antibodies quicker if we get it again.
I was reading the account of the Sherwood lady that got quarantined in Japan after the cruise ship. Her test results we from positive to negative and back several times before she got 2 consecutive negatives. Kind of makes you wonder how accurate the test is, seeing as it is brand new too and never been through a clinical trial.
I hope everyone is doing well. I spent the past week furloughing about 70% of my workforce. I work in healthcare, but much of it is considered “non-essential”, so we are pared down to just emergencies and our patient flow has dropped 90%. My allergies have been acting up also, so the few times I was out was sometimes met with suspicion. At least that forces my hot Mormon wife out to do the grocery shopping!
I’d have to find a link, but know I read somewhere about a currently in development blood test to check for existing antibodies, which would be a good indicator if you already have had it pass through you.
Was listening to Dr Fauci interviewed on Trevor Noah a few days ago. He couldnt say with 100% certainty, but thinks if this virus behaves like pretty much every other bronchial virus, the antibodies will give people immunity for the rest of the season.
(I’m paraphrasing, but he sounded pretty confident in that message)
Here’s the link if anybody is interested(Ean might find it informative)
Link to a story about the town of Telluride, CO, where a bio chemical company has developed antibody testing and is testing all 8000 residents in that small community, to see if this strategy could be used more wide spread as a way to give recovered patients a sortof “hall pass” to re enter the workforce and economy after developing immunity to the virus. Makes sense to me. Hope this technology becomes more wide spread quickly so we can have some hope of getting the economy kick started again.
Greetings from locked-down Western WA! Just like all of you, I miss it all; March Madness, Beaver Baseball, spring football and the hope for fall. This will pass at some point and we can all try and get on with our lives and livelihoods. I know a lot of what is being talked about concerns the financial markets and trying to get back what was ‘lost’. Before I add my 2 cents worth into this conversation, I will just say, I’m just a guy, trying to raise my family the best I can and hoping to have a little left over so that I don’t have to work my *** off the until they plant me six feet under.
I think that I may have something useful to add to this conversation as I have the benefit of time; I’ve seen a lot. My first auto loan for an ’84 Nissan p/u was at 16%! I remember the ’87 event as I had a roommate who was playing the market on margin and got the ‘call’ and had to borrow the money from my cousin to pay it. ’99-’00 – it was the ‘QQQ’ (dotcom bust)with every company in at a high valuation, producing no revenue, with a business model nobody could explain – people just wanted ‘in’. In ’08, lenders started lending money to the gas station attendant so he could buy a $350,000 house.
So when people talk about getting back into this market, I’m a little concerned.
People need to know what has driven the meteoric of the market since ’17 until just 3 weeks ago. Well. when Trump lowered the corporate tax rate in order to repatriate money that was being held overseas, it was meant to be used for R & D and capital investment in order to bring more manufacturing and employment back to the US. What happened is that it sparked a $4.5 TRILLION tsunami of corporate stock-buybacks which shot the market to these ATH’s. Boeing was probably the most egregious abuser of this as they spent $100 Billion to enrich their investors and execs. I bet they wish they had that money back, but maybe not. Now they can go the taxpayer and get $60 billion after exhausting their revolver from their current lender.
At any rate, the problems started back in September of ’19 when the fed initiated their repo operations with the banks. They explained it was a short term operation in order to help entities to get through the quarterly tax season. The thing is, it continued throughout the rest of the fall and was scheduled to end sometime in April. By the time it was all said an done $TRILLIONS would have been spent by the fed in these operations.
Now we come to 3 weeks ago when all hell broke loose with the ‘virus’. Remembering ’08 and what a crisis that was, and all the bailouts and shenanigans pulled by the fed, this looks to be 10 times as bad if you go by just the amount of money that has been thrown at it. “08 look pretty tame in comparison.
The fed has promised to buy it all: treasuries, muni bonds, corporate debt, and yes, even equities. They have promised QE to infinity! My questions is, that if you have an entity that has committed to purchasing everything not nailed down, when does a ‘market’ cease to be a ‘market’? Where is the price discovery? Where is the revenue to justify the valuations? Many of these companies who take the bailout will not be able to pay dividends for up to 2 years.
Again, I don’t know anymore than anyone else and I wish everybody luck. Some of this I have tried to talk to my own sons about; maybe some of it sticks maybe some of it doesn’t. Just be careful out there – return of your capitol maybe more important than return on your capitol in the coming weeks and months…
Depends on how much money you’re investing. Robin Hood is a platform that allows fractional share purchases (so you don’t need as much money to get started), but they’ve had some technical issues lately.
Traditional brokers like Charles Schwab have commission free trading now, so you can open something like an IRA and start investing. As referenced above, now is probably not the time to start. Hold a decent amount of cash until the economic fallout of COVID takes a greater toll on the market.
Before you start buying individual stocks max out any sort of company 401K offer in a long term target fund like a 2050. You will get the advantage of pre-tax contribution plus, maybe, a company match. Don’t try and be a stock picker or a market timer.. Very few can do it successfully.
Roth’s take after tax dollars. If you are working at a company that offers a 401k with a match that is your best first move as a young person. Again a target fund with a long horizon like 2055. After that start to educate yourself. Vanguard and Fidelity offer lots of information on their websites.
401k match is a no-brained. The market would have to fall 50% for it to not be worth it. If you need to, you can withdraw early and the penalties are less than 50%.
We bank with Chase, she suggested watching their website for updates and said she would call when they had something definitive.
I think this is one that will require keeping an eye on and not waiting for that call. I watched Mnuchin this morning on the news he doesn’t exactly make me feel like he’s looking out for me.
Oh no shit on that one. None of those fuckers care about us at all, but if they dangle a fat bag of government cash in front of us we’re stupid not to take it. It’s gonna go somewhere. Why not here?
Someone emailed me this morning, they are in the same business I am in…”The Paycheck Protection Program is a great program for businesses like ours that are staying open.” I’m not sure that this is different as he seems to think but the verbiage is something I’ll keep my eye out for.
thanks for the reminder, OOBie, so in that spirit, here’s a remembrance for my friend Ted, best buddy in grad school, best man at my wedding, drafted into the 1st Cav where he became a UH-1 crew chief in Vietnam. Rest well, Ted. See you on the other side.
Just a slow old RockChucker. Certainly not the best for high volume, but has served me well.
Spent a lot of time developing loads for .243 and .270; I think that’s it’s best use. Still, putting together 50 or 100 rounds of .38 or .357 isn’t bad and gets me out of my wife’s way!
How about you?….Dillon?
My brother has a Dillon, I have been running the old Lee Classic turret. Works really nice for low volume load development and I can pick up the pace a bit if I need to crank some out. I don’t do much volume so it’s probably about the same as your Rockchucker. Hard to beat the industry standards.
Angry, I’m seeing crude below $20 bbl. And have been reading about the 70s crude crash, and how long it took to recover globally. Seems like a long haul stock but one that could pay off. Thoughts?
If you can stand, in a worse case scenario, 1 to 2 years of dead money it will pay off.
Better sign of a bottom in oil would be consolidation/bankruptcies. I’ve been watching it closely and picked up peanuts in ConocoPhillips so far ($23 per share I think). A better play might be buying the commodity directly instead of oil stocks, which don’t have great management.
Anyway, the short: worth watching. Doubt this is the bottom, but maybe it is. Really your call. Not a bad time to nibble small.
It could be if Opec/Russia change on a dime. It depends on how much pain they’re willing to take. And of course depends on the length of the depression we’re entering. For these reasons, to me it’s a crapshoot. I think smart money is probably accumulating here and will accumulate more on any drop, then wait two years and sell it to the masses who didn’t have the balls. That’s the likely outcome. I’ve nibbled just a tiny bit. I have some balls but not brass balls.
I also prefer renewables. The kwh numbers are incredible these days and will decrease rapidly over the next five years. Been investing more in those…
They replayed the Minnesota vs Penn State game last night. Had a virtual tailgate with our tailgating crew. Texts and pictures of drinks, eats, and Sandusky jokes. That was a great day last fall and it was fun to sort of relive it. Perhaps we should do an angrybeavs watch of a Beaver event?
In college, I used to put off preparation for presentations and always figured I could get by just by winging it, mostly because I hated presentations. My teachers would bitch at me about reading my note cards and no eye contact.
This guy doesn’t even appear to read his transcript before he steps up to the podium.
Also, I love the moving of the goal posts, where now we’re saying if we keep the death toll between 100k and 200k nationally, we will have done a very good job, because it could have been as bad as…. 2.2M.
A few weeks ago we had 15 confirmed cases nationally and they were all going to go away in a matter of days.
At least we have a few honest people and/or real leaders like Fauci, Coumo, even Bill Gates…
He claims it would be dangerous to claim victory before the war is won. You mean like you did, sir, when you said 15 cases would magically disappear? So much for his self-proclaimed, tremendous instincts.
Anyway, I’m sure we have nothing to worry about now that Jared Kushner is on the case.
I’ll give him this. He never actually said zero. Just “close to zero”
It could be argued the total number of cases is relatively close to zero. It just wouldn’t be a good argument.
thanks, NB. This is instructive. Trump fundamentalists read his statements like some Evangelicals read scripture. One of the best contemporary political observers is Salena Zito. read her stuff. As she pointed out, the problem a lot of the media have (as evidenced by the questions that come up in press conferences) is the tendency to take Trump literally, with no appreciation for nuance or context. Trump statements are like any other text; they have peculiar idiosyncrasies and overused tropes. One of his favorites is “bigger than anything you have ever seen before,” which, is, of course, not true. When he describes things thus, like the pre-virus economy as the best ever, is that a lie, or hyperbole? There’s a difference. Most of his problems are a function of his limited vocabulary. You have to learn how to read what he says. In this case, it was wishful thinking. His remarks today were, to be sure, deadly serious.
When has Trump ever said his problems are a function of his limited vocabulary, that we have to learn how to figure out what he actually means, etc? This is your interpretation of his flaws. My interpretation is that people generally mean what they say, and if they don’t, they apologize and explain what they actually meant, admit error, etc. I see none of that. Instead he doubles down and/or blames the media/others.
Why did you even bother asking for a verbatim quote if you were already going to say everything he says is made up bullshit and nobody should give it any credence?
(I already knew that, and I dont, so I’m safe there)
What is the social cue I should look for to let me know when he is being deadly serious vs spouting off meaningless bullshit?
and middle east peace, opiod epidemic, criminal justice reform, diplomacy with mexico and china, liason to the muslim community and a few other things.
Here’s the 2.2M claim. Says 2.2M dying wouldn’t have been acceptable.
Which makes it sounds like 100k to 200k is an acceptable number. Fucked up logic.
Did you catch the context, and how the media is telling everyone 100-200 thousand will die. But that’s the high end a fuchi who is an authority on these things has never seen happen ever. It’s all doomer bullshit pumped by the media.
Sure people will die, it’s what happens in a pandemic. Absolutley nothing could have been done once the first person who was infected left Wuhan, short of a complete and total shutdown of this country. But if that happened trump would be a racist xenophobe. No matter what would have happened its trump’s fault according to the media. He cannot win.
He mentions models, high end and low end, and says the high end is usually wrong, low end wrong, and middle is usually right…then he says 100k to 200k deaths at the 1:00 mark, but he doesn’t want to be held to that. What’s the issue? He clearly says 100k to 200k deaths is his prediction, though he doesn’t want to be held to it because it’s a moving picture. So you’re upset the media is reporting exactly what he said?
No, he said 1 to 2 million is the high end model and certainly wrong. He says his projection is 100k to 200k. I mean it’s right there on the video. If you were criticizing the media for saying 1 to 2 million deaths then yeah you’d be right. But they’re referencing his figures verbatim.
Great, now I don’t know if Fauci is speaking a nuanced language where I should believe what he says, or just understand he’s making numbers up. He’s even talking about banging models now.
But in reality, he has the figure in the millions as his high end, unrealistic, worst case, never gonna happen scenario.
And in his more accurate projections, he is saying we’ll land around 100k bit less than 200k.
It’s what he said. Nobody is editing his words or twisting them around to say 100k is the doom and gloom number. He has said it on multiple occasions.
it was stupid of Trump to say that. I knew it wasn’t going to be true, and any sensible observer the same. It was his usual freelancing nonsense where he’s thinking out loud, or perhaps better, wishing out loud.
I didn’t have a reply button to use above, but I’d like to reply to NB and Angry re: the “filter” one needs to understand Trump. There’s really no mystery to this, once you see the pattern. The question you have to ask is: since he’s going to be president at least 7+ months how to cope with his pronouncements? Are we just going to complain or, to use our critical thinking skills that are the foundation for this site, work through stuff.
And then this: was the old political double speak, talking point nonsense that went for political dialogue for the last few decades any better, any less misleading? Sure, it was more polished, but was it any more accurate? As I said before, if everything was so great before, how does a guy with such limited abilities as Trump get elected in the first place? Seriously, someone answer that.
Are you talking about “read my lips, no new taxes” or “mission accomplished”?
Neither one seemed like bad humans,
And I do agree, Trump is a symptom of what was/is wrong and got him elected in the first place. I’m sure y’all are tired of hearing about Yang but it was one of the things he pointed to in his campaign, eg. we need to fix the things that got the current guy elected.
On the bright side, his daily press briefings get alot of viewers. Ratings in line with Monday Night Football and the Bachelor Finale.
That makes me feel better. Some tremendous numbers.
so NB’s post is what I’m driving at. Trump can’t win. Tries to boost spirits by expressing hope that things might pass–blasted. Takes a more realistic tone–blasted. you Cassandras out there need to figure out what scenario you want and then YOU live with it.
Imagine if the head coach of your favorite football team took credit for every victory, but threw his players and assistant coaches under the bus after every loss. And the losses continued to pile up.
Like Gary Andersen.
Would you consider it a job well done?
Was it wrong to question Gary Andersen and be critical of his results?
He didnt throw his inner circle under the bus, but he also accused hospitals of hoarding medical supplies (without evidence)and accused governors of increasing the number of supplies they need in an effort to make Trump look bad(without evidence)
I guess it doesn’t make sense that we can go from 15 total cases to over 100,000 total cases in a few weeks and the number of supplies requested increases too? He is the self proclaimed numbers guy, isn’t he?
He accused the media of misquoting him and purposefully cutting his quotes short to leave out context, but then as the reporter re-reads his quote, verbatim, he cuts the reporter off short. No sense of irony?
Wanna watch our for that. He likes to equivocate efforts of others as his own so if you criticise him you hate heros. He does it constantly with first responders, millitary, healthcare workers, teachers.
I’m glad he points to the people who deserve praise but I doubt his actual intentions.
Well I don’t know about “big boy pants”, but he does have a big gut (always wears a coat to hide it) and wears ties that hang down to his dick — not sure any of that would work for a nickname.
NB I have come to the conclusion that if people are not horrified by that idiot by now they never will be. He can do anything and people will continue to say its all good and were just blah blah blah blah blah. All hes good at is making people dance to his tune but if you can’t hear the music its beyond sureal.
TDS used to be funny. Now it’s just sad and pathetic.
Imagine being outraged. All the time. Nitpicking every little thing one man says. Just looking for something to get upset about. Then go cry on social media and get your followers/sheep to agree with you. Telling you how right and smart you are.
It must really suck to be that angry all the time.
So having unjustified and irrational fears over everything orange bad man says is somehow smart?
What’s absolutely turrifying is you’re supposed to be an adult.
Turn off your television. Ignore the media. Get off of social media. Stop worrying about things out of your control. Be a leader instead of looking for someone to lead you. You’ll be happier and healthier.
Did you miss the part where the fuckstick in the red hat is supposed to be the leader of the free world and at the very least he is actually making decisions about what happens in our country?
So yes, we should be worried about him driving over the cliff if we’re all forced to be passengers.
Nuke: have you always accepted what Presidents have said at face value? C’mon man. I remember LBJ: “I’m not sending American boys to fight the war Vietnamese boys should be fighting.” Nixon: “I’m not a crook.” Ford: get a WIN button. Reagan: the problem is government! Clinton: I did not have sex with that woman! W: mission accomplished. Obama: you can keep your doctor.
Wanna: No my delusions of presidential honesty died with mission accomplished as a kid. I think you know that Trump’s allergy to truth and lack of clarity is unprecedented.
Orange Bad Man: I don’t watch TV so miss there I have one social media account and I just post dumb jokes but thanks for the advice. Yes staying informed is smart, founding fathers said it first. I don’t nitpick, he says some truly crazy shit and ignoring it is ridiculous. You do realize the president’s directs the activities of the government which creates the bounds of my existence. I’m not just going to happily watch as he does stuff that is antithetical to what I want in life. I am a leader and as a leader I worry about the people who look up to me. It’s the responsibility of a leader to protect everyone he leads, what exactly do you think being a leader is?
Biden apparently, but hes to busy feeling up children and playing Monday morning QB.
Someone should ask him about the swine flu response from 09. I’d love to here how he and Obama waited to address the nation until 6 months after the first case here and 10,000 deaths from it.
Sanders is pretty busy being honest and raising money for healthcare. Guy has been saying the same stuff and backing it with action for longer than many people have been alive. People can hate his policy but his integrity is pretty legit.
Biden strongly defended segregation so he can just fuck off.
Edit: BB be careful with being overly bianary. Not liking Trump’s approach doesn’t mean someone is a lover of the opposite. You are a very smart guy that does research and are way better than that kind of basic arguement. That said it’s super tempting and I’m def guilty of it when riled up.
Biden is a safe pick who will appeal to moderates who are sick of the circus and to blacks due to Obama connection. He’ll be a lame duck anyway because (R) will control the Senate. Trump will be a lame duck, too, but he has the courts (ugh) and will abuse the shit out of the Constitution to gain more power (main reason everyone should be voting him out).
Biden can’t really be the pick from the Dems. I mean, I would love that. Trump will mop the floor with him. I just never take my opponent that lightly…that I would believe he makes it to election day. However, RCP has Biden up 10+ to Trump in the “polls”. Guess they didn’t learn anything in 2016. Save this post, if Biden is the candidate, prepare for Reagan vs. Mondale.
Angry, you mentioned above that you could provide a list of beaten-down stocks to possibly invest in. I’d be interested in that list.
And I’ve got a question about easing into positions. Do you really mean buying only a quarter of a share at a time, during down days? So, for a $40 stock, you only invest $10 at a time? Could take forever to get a position that could make money on the upswing that way. (If this sounds like a naive question, well, that’s an accurate reflection of the source.)
Also, what do you think about solar/wind energy stocks? I’ve been looking at ENPH and am kicking myself for not buying a week ago. On the other hand, it’s a stock you can’t turn your back on if you own it; very volatile.
Anyway, I’m impressed with your market opinions. Mostly goes over my head, but I love it when you talk that way.
(a) The trails were packed. I feel like I got Corona just biking by all these zombies.
(b) Our city has like 200,000 people…there must have been 100 cars on the road all day. Concluded we’re going to have a depression not a recession, barring a vaccine or some other deus ex machina. Only question is how long. I’ve never seen anything like it.
a) sigh
b) Economists keep saying it depends on how much of the down turn is covid related and how much is economic. I don’t really understand the distinction.
I guess economic would be related to the business cycle, debt, etc., versus COVID just being the temporary demand shock. So what you think happens depends on how resilient you think the economy was before February.
Unfortunately, all the signs have been pointing to the former. Low savings and record debt for households and corporations. The only way we survived the GFC was the Fed’s printing press and money-printing has diminishing returns.
We won’t go into a depression. The president will be pressured into opening the economy. There were already calls for him to open the economy this past week. Those will only get louder and louder. Especially as we go into April and the market tanks even more. Unemployment will hit 20 to 30 percent. The Texas Lt gov said he’d be ok dying for the economy. More politicians, radio hosts and companies will join that cause. President will cave.
He could be bailed out a bit if he can get all the medical equipment needed produced by May and then keep it up the rest of the year. That way hospitals don’t get overwhelmed as much.
Of course it will cause a Covid surge. There is a line to draw, economic collapse or COVID suppression. Somebody will have to call it. I for one am happy it’s somebody with a business background not some rotten lifetime politician.
Two cars on the road. Normal is about 30 in this area on a walk that long. Damn. It is dead out there. I guess the only thing that will prevent a depression is if all those people are buying a ton of shit online. That is possible. Depends how secure they feel in their jobs.
I expect to have a depression of 2-3 years at least. I went fishing a few weeks ago in eastern Oregon before the “lockdown”, staying in a hotel, was the only person to get a room, they probably had at least 40 rooms. The owner said everyone had canceled, and that I otherwise would not have been able to get a room that weekend. When I returned from dinner, there was one other car in the lot.
The recent bailout is only good for a few months, what then? The Government can’t keep spending that much money every quarter. People are going to be seriously hurting to pay bills. How many institutions will hold off on debt collection or debt forgiveness, and how long can they do it? How does that hotel owner survive something like this if it lasts for months or longer?
We don’t have a president we can trust to take us through this – he disdains science, has relied strategically on mis-information (propaganda) for too long, and has by design an unstable staff. Now we’re supposed to trust him and his administration? And we’re heading into an election whose results will be contested no matter what, and that will be a huge distraction and opportunity cost.
And then AFTER the virus issue diminishes in intensity, we’re stuck with massive debt for years, which diminishes the government’s ability to fund functions they otherwise might have funded.
I fear (a) cyber strike(s) on financial institutions or power grids in the near future. Hell, even moderately effective ones would push many people over the edge in the current environment, diminish confidence, and further hurt the economy.
If we have jobs, we need to appreciate it very much, hold on to them, and think about how we can not just remain civil, but help each other out.
I hope I’m wrong. Either way, there’s a lot to learn from this, including what things are valuable, and a genuine chance to pull together.
I don’t see a 2-3 year depression. I see a bounce back in a few months, likely less. We have two monster trade deals and a new mandate from the Feds that a whole lot of medical pills and equipment will me made in the USA this point forward. Nobody here wants to talk about the numerous examples of Hydroxychloroquine working. Read the article about the VA care center in Lebanon. Only one death in an extremely high risk group and 24-48 hour improvement. Trump is cutting the red tape, watch a vaccine come out in record time (many months, but not two years).
He has deferred to the medical experts every press conference. He runs the show just like a great leader should even down to the smallest projects. Put together a crack team and manage them. Don’t be fooled by the upvotes, the Trump hate on this blog has driven most of the conservative beaver fans away, so you are becoming an echo chamber. Jack was at the forefront of this.
Get ready for Trump to lay down an ass whooping if Biden is the candidate. Then sit there and wonder where it went all wrong when the answer is right in front of you. (just like 2016)
It’s coming up behind a paywall off this site. I’ll see if I can find another source.
Can’t get it to work from around the paywall. Google it. Hydroxycloroquine treatment covid19.
Highlights include an additional 80 patients tested in france 93% had negative test after 8 days. New york is in the middle of the study but has no data yet.
Honestly I am not sure. The FDA has a history of placing political/greater good over science/proof. I think there is plenty of merit to the use of hydeoclorquine paired with other drugs.
The FDA can request advanced screening of results of any federally sponsored (paid for) research. So they could have gotten some good news or it could be politicians wanting something to be done.
Specially for protecting first responders adn triage/ER workers. If they can get results back that quickly and do so on site it makes a big difference in how we do PPE and isolation.
You guys see Trump suspended tariffs for three months?
I thought tariffs (translation: import tax) were great for Americans? Why would you suspend something great when we need greatness now more than ever?!!? Oh yeah, because tariffs fucking blow. It’s interesting how every policy is being exposed. Karma…
How does it help the US if we allow others to ship items here for free and they charge us to ship to them? I thought we hated china and their state sponsored undercutting of us products?
Tariffs really are not paid by the host country. They only protect your country is you have an industry that is being undercut.
Let’s say America has a big tire industry. If China starts selling tires in the US for 40% less it undercuts the industry and hurts us. So we apply a tariff of 40% so the price of the goods of the Chinese tires has to increase or their tire makers have to eat the tarrif. Problem is the US doesn’t produce all that many things at a competitive price point over the last 30 years so the industries have moved elsewhere or collapsed. If you apply a tarrif to a good that America doesn’t really produce then they just raise the price and the consumer gets hurt. We import more than we produce so tarrifs are not a good idea unless they are highly targeted.
Then why did he remove the tariffs? They destroy Americans because it’s a tax. That’s why.
The US consumer pays the tariff after the costs are passed on from the corp. This was just another way for Trump to collect revenue from us to give to his buddies. Tariff = tax. China isn’t paying the tax, man. They get no hit. We get the worst of both worlds: higher prices on imports, government getting bigger via the tariff tax, middle class paying it, China no ding (plus they were circumventing the ports by going through Australia first). If you want to get off China, you bring production back to the US, take the painful medicine of that transition, and then have a vibrant domestic economy that actually produces goods, self sufficient, and doesn’t have to rely on China. Trump is right we have to get off China. I never said he went about it correctly. Just another reason he disappointed me.
I agree with almost all of that. I think bringing production to the US is a pipe dream easily sold but impossible to achieve in large scale. We should focus on innovation and advanced production which matches our education and skillset as opposed to easily copied 100 year old industries.
For the old school industries we should focus on a diverse supply chain so one country can’t hold us over.the barrel and in times like these we don’t have to relie on them. There is cheap basic labor all over the world that will be happy to take some of China’s industrial burden to make a robust supply chain.
Every president from Washington to Lincoln supported tariffs. There’s some pretty good presidential talent in that subset. Tariffs help DEVELOPING economies from the economic predation of stronger powers, principally Great Britain in the early history of this country.. Trump’s true insight, perhaps his only one, is that the out-migration of industry after the end of the Cold War and the imposition of WTO hegemony was that a big portion of this country had reverted to developing country status. What do you suppose the moniker RUST BELT suggests about a region? The conceit of Wall Street is that by the financialization of that out-migration we were as well off as before. We now know that was a delusion.
They have not been lifted as of this minute. Trump and Mnuchin have said multiple times over the last 4 weeks that they would not. ‘sources’ in the white house and/or treasury have said they would. My guess is that China will withhold supplies for some tariff relief.
ABs opinion is all based on the false assumption that no tarrifs benefits the consumer. Your socks and t shirts from China might be cheaper, but wage rates stagnate. Look at skill saw, traeger, and nike shoe pricing. If the libs really cared about the environment, they wouldn’t allow anything to be built in China because it is a communist shithole that doesn’t give a shit about workers or pollution.
Isn’t it weird that the CDC, the WHO and now the New England Journal of medicine can’t agree on anything when talking about this virus. Yet it still DTJs fault for not knowing what all those smart dudes don’t even have a grasp on?
Japan put it correctly when they called it the Chinese Health Organization. WHO “no human to human spread of COVID 19”. Why would they say that if they did their homework at the source?
Stated in article
MOUNT VERNON, Wash. — With the coronavirus quickly spreading in Washington state in early March, leaders of the Skagit Valley Chorale debated whether to go ahead with weekly rehearsal.
Nearly three weeks later, 45 have been diagnosed with COVID-19 or ill with the symptoms, at least three have been hospitalized, and two are dead.
Linsey Marr, an environmental engineer at Virginia Tech and an expert on airborne transmission of viruses, said some people happen to be especially good at exhaling fine material, producing 1,000 times more than others.
If you tried gauging American politics by the squawking echo chamber known as Twitter, you’d be convinced Congress is 50% democrats, 50% communists, and Bernie Sanders is Supreme Leader.
Trump is the biggest socialist in history after these latest bailouts. Why are you calling Scotty comrade? Trump supporters are now the comrades. That’s the irony.
Stated in article
MOUNT VERNON, Wash. — With the coronavirus quickly spreading in Washington state in early March, leaders of the Skagit Valley Chorale debated whether to go ahead with weekly rehearsal.
Nearly three weeks later, 45 have been diagnosed with COVID-19 or ill with the symptoms, at least three have been hospitalized, and two are dead.
Linsey Marr, an environmental engineer at Virginia Tech and an expert on airborne transmission of viruses, said some people happen to be especially good at exhaling fine material, producing 1,000 times more than others.
I would think that with their incredibly poor air quality, many are compromised from the start when it comes to dealing with a respiratory health issue.
They’ve reported 1,000 new cases in the last 3 weeks. Lol. Come on!
I can’t believe people are eating that up. If ever there was a time for everyone to unite over “fake news” it’s that.
Worth watching with the down time. Noam Chomsky’s lectures and writings of how there really is no Left media is also interesting. If you define Left as “for the people” it’s pretty much true. Even NPR and the likes are very sympathetic toward drops in stock prices, etc, despite the majority of people not owning any.
I’ve seen that. The bad news in the story was the effect watching and buying into the Fox propaganda had on her dad’s personality. He transformed from a sweet easy-going guy to angry and aggressive. Got to put Limbaugh’s followers in the same boat.
My late father in law did the same thing when he retired. Every time we saw him, we had to put up with the latest b.s. he heard that week listening to Rush.
Smash China. Buy USA. Not just USA, buy local. Somebody here mentioned local eggs. Find a local butcher, but the good stuff. Buy half a steer or pig local and get a freezer for times like this in the future. Go Beavs.
I mentioned Winn Farms in Corvallis for eggs, they also sell chicken, pork and turkey (at least during the holidays). Another local egg vendor in Corvallis area, that sell’s at the Co-op, is Green Oaks.
Also for pastured beef, available at the Co-op, for delivery, or through Gathering Together is communitycow.net. He also just joined with a local lamb producer in the valley. The lamb guy lost a ton of business in Portland so they’re working together.
I work with (unbiased) people in China. The story from the streets of two major cities: public transportation is basically dead. There’s more traffic on the roads because no one wants to be in public. Restaurants are in business again, but only at about 20% capacity. The government announced last week that people didn’t need to wear masks anymore, but 99% of people are still wearing them. The average person doesn’t trust the government because they all know the numbers were a lie. There is growing concern about the reports of “foreigners bringing COVID back into the country.” In general, economic demand has been very slow to come back. Lots of people lost their jobs and even though the economy is “open” again, the majority are either hesitant to be in public, or unemployed now.
I would expect the “re-opening” of the US economy to look similar.
The Party’s gameplan has been ENTIRELY about narrative control. If they can announce “the threat is gone, we handled it internally,” then start blaming new cases on foreigners, it’s suddenly an “us aginst the world” story instead of “we dug our own grave.”
Yeah, exactly, sounds right.
Even if/when we open up in May, the likelihood of us going out to dinner or any other public event are near 0. Might be a year or two before we do that. We’re not fearful people so I imagine a lot of people will behave the same. We have been ordering a lot more things online, and doing social gatherings online via all those programs, so there’s that. I’m not sure how far that carries the economy. Today we spent $50 online at a local business. Hope it helps. We can’t support every one, though…definitely going to see some favorites go under, and that sucks.
Sounds like the game plan we will follow. Though fudging the numbers in the US will be tough, I imagine guidelines can be updated to weed the numbers down a bit but lung infection with a positive covid19 test will be near impossible not to report as a death caused by covid19 in the US.
Germany is being deceptive with their death numbers. Anyone who has an underlying and tests positive for Covid has a cause of death as the underlying condition. If they’re doing it, why won’t we? We seem motivated to get the numbers down more than anyone but China.
Crazy, I suppose we could go that route too. I think from federal, state and local governments there will be pressure to keep numbers low here. Bipartisanship at its finest! Working across the aisle to sell a pile of bull.
Germanys model is covering “died with virus and died from virus”. Its not completely deceptive. A gal in eugene (3rd death in oregon) died from a heart attack then was tested and had the virus. She is counted as a virus casualty but she wouldn’t in germany. She had no symptoms as far as what was being reported. I pointed this out in the first general thread, but I’m thinking anyone who dies and has the virus is being counted on the virus death list. No matter the situation. That doesn’t mean hundreds of people are getting in car accidents who have the virus and end up dying are counted.
It’s nuts that OSU is now getting five stars from other parts of the country. When Rueck first started, they’d dig and find players in hidden parts of BC (Hamblin) and international players – now they’re beating the other top programs from recruits. It’s why I’ve never bought the argument you can’t get top recruits to Corvallis. The school has developed NFL, NBA, WNBA, MLB and even MLS players.
Should have some interesting work coming up in the next few weeks, I’ll be working closely with alot of our organization’s national Covid19 utilization data for some ad-hoc analytics projects they need me to step in on. Will be interesting to see some actual, un-filtered data to get a gauge for how trends are changing week to week and to also see which types of utilization is being flagged specifically as Covid19 related.(diagnosis codes and procedure codes)
We have facilities throughout the country too, so it should give a pretty good cross regional view for comparison. Of course everything is considered PHI, so I have to be careful about which information I can even talk about publicly, but hopefully these weekly reports will help build a nice trend analysis over time so we can track when things start to calm down.
I’ll know more about the project later this week.
Pivoting off Blackbandits mention above about car accident fatalities and counting of Covid19 fatalities.
I wonder if regular day to day fatalities will significantly decrease over the coming months, simply because more people are staying home vs heading out on the freeway every day?
Is it possible that even with an estimated death count of around 100k resulting from Covid19, will the country’s population actually experience a net gain simply due to people not being in as risky of activities on a daily basis?
Traffic fatalities annually end up at around 32k-37k each year in the US. I would expect to see an extreme dip in that total this year. Of course traffic fatalities are just one example. And we don’t know yet if our health systems when operating at or beyond capacity will allow more non Covid19 related fatalities to occur simply due to lack of resources to treat critically injured or ill patients.
What other areas could we see a significant change in mortality rates?
Sorry, I know it’s a morbid thought, but all data worth factoring when measuring the impact of this disease. On our country.
Not to hijack this but did you see what the Wuhan shutdown did to the pollution in that area. Everyone stopped working and the factories shut down, I think it was about a week and it cleared up.
I think this sort of impact would be a little different in the US where we have less of an industrial base. Fewer cars on the road will certainly make a difference, but chemical plants, for example, are still operating.
I’d still like to see the same info used here just for a comparison. Even though our shutdown is lower impact then theirs it would interesting just the difference in impact it has on pollution.
I saw an article about this the other day, but I’m not sure where. They also mentioned lower flu death rate due to social distancing.
Another question I have: are people being more or less active under quarantine? Will we see health benefits from increased exercise, or negative consequences of more sitting around and not going out?
The lower flu death rate Is good. Look at the amount of people who are testing negative for covid19 though. I think they are still only test symptomatic people, and the negative tests in oregon is over 10000 with close to 12000 tested. So something else is going around that has similar symptoms.
One thing to note anecdotally, with reduced traffic some people are driving like bats out of hell. I do about 5-8 miles over the speed limit and I’m getting passed by like I’m standing still. There will be fewer traffic fatalities, but some are going to be gruesome high-speed crashes.
Weird, I thought the NCAA had already cancelled the entire Spring sport season, which was why they were looking to grant an extra year of eligibility for Spring athletes?
Is this just a case of the Pac12 playing catch up with the rest of the country again?
Big thanks to S.C. who made a recurring monthly donation today. All donations are great, but the monthly, recurring ones are especially nice because they’re reliable for budgeting. Even $1 per month helps on all fronts from the site to my time/effort. Thanks.
Relevant to the “old people and their Fox News” thread above: I think something that gets overlooked is the fact that the retired population has way more incentive to support corporations and the financial complex because that is the source of their income. The Left likes to complain (and rightfully so) that printing endless money to prop up asset prices only helps a small percentage of Americans, but it’s not JUST “Evil Corporations” that benefit. Any retiree living off anything more than Social Security depends on asset prices staying elevated.
I think this is one of the reasons Trump focuses on the stock market so much. Boomers are the second largest voting bloc in terms of total population and they vote in larger numbers than any others. The market isn’t just a proxy (albeit poor) for how the economy is doing, it also represents income and quality of life for a large group of voters.
Quite true, but the most recent round of asset price inflation has blown a bubble in everything pretty indiscriminately. Cross-asset correlation has never been higher.
Bullshit headline. A republican will never win again if Democrats are allowed to continue using dead peoples votes, importing illegals in to vote for them, and ballot harvesting (filling out ballots for all registered Dems and stuffing them into ballot boxes).
Dems have always been the part of power and destruction
How many Democrats are on Mount Rushmore?
Which party had the most votes for Womens suffrage
Which party had the most votes for the civil rights act
Which party created the EPA, OSHA
Which party created our National Parks
Heres all the convictions for voter fraud. https://www.heritage.org/voterfraud/search . I tihnk you will find both parties have instances of cheating but neither has mass voter fruad that would actually affect a national election outside of some representative races.
Rushmoore has Washington (no party), Lincoln (Republican), Thomas Jefferson (founding Republican) and Ted Roosevelt (Republican). Thats cause Washington and Lincoln were a shoe in and Coolidge insisted on republicans for the other two. Its not like there was a quorum of historians that decided they were the best picks. I don’t really have any problem with them but your just celebrating mild corruption not actual awesome achievement.
The achievements of those presidents and the other achievements you listed are all really great but also have almost no reflection in todays party. Reagan, Bush, Bush 2 and Trump have all hurt the EPA, OSHA, National Parks, Civil Rights. They have all actively gone against womens reproductive rights but that doesn’t have much to do with womens sufferage.
Lincoln’s most famous speech is the Gettysburg address which ends with, “and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth”. Trump said, “The things they had in there were crazy. They had things, levels of voting that if you’d ever agreed to it, you’d never have a Republican elected in this country again.”
Discussing which political party is represented on Mt. Rushmore is stupid for a host of reasons. But a main one being Democrats and Republicans were much different parties back then, even opposite of what they stand for now, if you research the facts on that.
Kendall Rogers
@KendallRogers
·
1h
Here’s the official release from the NCAA.
Everyone comes back for a year if they want to.
Schools will decide if you get money or not (seniors). And the baseball roster limit has been increased.
Quote Tweet
NCAA
@NCAA
· 1h
DI Council grants waiver to allow additional eligibility for spring sport athletes whose seasons were impacted by COVID-19: http://on.ncaa.com/2l3qv
that’s good news, but of far more import is the fact that MLB and the MLBPA have agreed to cut the amateur draft waaaaay back. like 5 rounds or such. This is MLB’s strategy to cut expenses. Take it out of the hide of the most needy, rather than the millionaires on MLB squads. That means, among other things, unless you are premium, no-miss pick, this year’s juniors will find a vastly shrunken market. That might mean, for example, that Kevin Abel comes back to Corvallis because, with his injury, it’s unlikely he’ll get drafted. sucks for Kevin, but could be great news for next year’s pitching staff. I’ll need to rely on you, BeeG, or maybe OOBie, but who are our best junior eligible players that are likely to roll into their senior year out of necessity?
Perhaps even of greater importance, the limited amateur draft will force most high school prospects into the college ranks.
I didn’t know the guy, but I know my bro’s best friend pretty well. Thanks.
Just a reality check for everyone. Definitely not just the sick, elderly, preexisting people who can die. Now have on the ground proof, unfortunately. I know that can happen with the flu, too, so we don’t need to go there. Just a reality check for all.
His wife got it too, and she recovered. It does seem to be hitting men worse for whatever reason.
Yeah, males get it worse, and it attacks our balls and lungs. I can’t imagine not being able to breath or use my balls. Might be staying inside for a few years. Lots of lawn work to do. Spent much of today thatching. That is a bitch to do manually…quite a work out.
Sorry to hear that.
Fyi there’s a study on now on the men/women death rates. Initial numbers show its ovarian related, women who have had theirs removed are dying at the same rate as men.
Yup thats the part that really fucks with the heart strings. We all die alone philosophically but its much worse to literally do so in a hospital. In places that have it together they are getting video conversations together for goodbyes but that can’t be much better.
Brings home the idea of making sure people you love know it every day.
Agree, it’s definitely a reality check. There’s still a certain level of risk for everybody, even if it isn’t high.
I’m sorry for his family. Their lives changed so quickly.
What do you guys think the down stream effects of the various methods for job loss will be? So far I have seen three methods in the developed countries.
1) Let job loss happen and subsidize with direct payments and unemployment.
2) Protect wages and jobs by making direct payments to affected companies for full wage or a percentage.
3) Paying companies directly for profit loss without wage protection requirements.
This IMF link has an exhaustive list of policies by country. My list above is just a summary of common policies.
Not sure how OSU is going to be able to pay for that. I can see OSU encouraging athletes to move on. But if I were an athlete, it could be a free year of grad school.
Angry, the sports comments are great, and are why I read the blog. However, you sound like a shill for CNN the way you’ve turned into a hateful Trump basher. Maybe you could tone it down some, it seems out of character for you, and people on this blog follow your lead and feel free to pile on. This virus thing is hard on all of us, Uber work has vanished, and my wife was laid off from her dental office. I’m reduced to DoorDashing with my 14 year old son to make ends meet. So yeah, it sucks, but damn, talk about soap, or maybe sports, anything but politics.
I’ve been fair to Trump. I do hate him. He’s put my families life at risk — they are Fox News watchers and Republicans…they believe what he says. He told them it was nothing and would disappear. So, fuck him. And for other reasons, like he’s a FED lover now when he rightfully blamed them for the pre ’16 problems, he’s become a Socialist after criticizing Socialism, and he’s built a more disgusting, nepotistic swamp with Kushner and Goldman assholes. He’s a lying piece of shit. I voted for him, but I realized my errors. I loved Gary Andersen. I realized my errors. I liked Tinkle. I’ve realized my errors. I’m human. I sometimes vote wrong. Oh well? I was reading a paper by Stanley Drunkenmiller, and he said the #1 reason he’s a great investor is he can change his opinion on a dime as new data and facts come in. So, while I liked Trump over Clinton in ’16, new facts and data have emerged. Now I can’t stand the guy. I hate to wish away time, but November can’t get here fast enough.
Anyway, the virus is the news now, and the virus has been politicized, so it’s going to happen here and everywhere else on the internet. If you don’t like it then take a break. Come back when things clear up.
Agree talking politics is stupid. Nobody is changing anyone’s mind. It’s the organic direction things have taken lately because it’s relevant and what else is there to discuss? People can start their own topics here in the comments and see if anyone wants to talk about it…
My favorite deranged Trump people. I voted for him so my hatred is more meaningful. No your site has good recruiting news is there not Reddit places like world politics to discuss how he has ruined the world? I am going to have to rejoin beaverblitz!
I am going to take the advise given and return back after the news has passed. This is a really great Beaver site I believe.
I guess I should have clarified that I did understand the vote in ’16. I cast it. I got it.
Sure, I don’t understand it now that the guy has lied about every promise, other than to think there is manipulation on his part and radio personalities getting into peoples’ heads. But back in ’16 it made a lot of sense with the shaming and radical left telling people how to think, and how Trump was a backlash. Even the emails, stealing a Reagan slogan of “MAGA”, etc. That all made sense. Now it makes zero sense. Seems the biggest appeal now is perceived “winning” against Democratic voters. To me that’s not how you lead a Country, as voters. But dig in harder, guy. You do you, as the great Seth Collins once said. Or was it Seth the Great?
Talking politics is not stupid. Some of the best political discussion I find occurs here because it typically goes beyond the rhetoric, gets to depth on economics, statistics, with people willing to admit they are wrong, or what they’ve learned, or gasp, that they just don’t go party lines.
I agree OC. The past few weeks have been this site’s finest hour EXCEPTING only the counter-narrative about Heimlich we were able to engender. I’m proud to have played a part in that.
Is ScriptDrop a thing in Corvallis? I have a relative who does those deliveries up in Olympia and business seems to be better than usual since people arent leaving the house but still need their meds delivered.
WHAT fucking sports should we be talking about right NOW?!?!? There is nothing on TV, no spring football practice, and baseball is cancelled. Let’s celebrate our new wrestling coach, and blue basketball recruit??? Have at it then. I don’t mind the politics. Didn’t vote for Hillary or Trump….we need real leaders in this country, way too much narcissism as it is.
There are no sports and I’ve always considered AB to be a landing spot for lots of different discussions. Sort of a virtual pub, where everybody knows your name, so to speak.
It was the great discussions in the past couple of weeks that actually got me off my ass to make my donation recurring vs occasional.
Rueck just signed 5*, 6′ Guard from suburb of Chicago, Greta Kampshroeder, rated 12th best prospect and 4th best guard in the class of 2021. She has some videos on YouTube that I reviewed and this young lady has a very technically sound perimeter shot with a quick release, can drive to the hole, has good passing skills too. She’s got Sabrina Egonescu type shooting range as well. I think she’s going to be one of the best shooters that Rueck has seen in his program as she really has a nice looking jumper.
That’s a humorous read because it’s an example (in my opinion) of over analysis and over use of “statistics.” Plus throw in the “strong armed qb” narrative. The conclusion is about right on:
“His lack of elusiveness, injury history and penchant for losing poise when rushed are concerns, but that’s why he’s graded as a Day 3 project and not a blue chip first rounder. He reminds me of a less experienced Landry Jones and is a worthy developmental flyer for teams that can afford to bring him along for a year or two before giving him a shot.”
And I didn’t dislike Luton. I was good with him being on the roster and always for acknowledging he’d never had coaching consistency in terms of scheme or mechanics. His last two years at OSU were the first time he’d had the same O-coordinator for two seasons in a row. Good luck, I hope he stays healthy. With the back injury he suffered, and the ridiculous size/speed of DTs, DEs at the next level, and blitzing LBs, I think he should move on from football and protect his back.
These might work…
Poise Maximum Long Pads
1 Review Add Your Review
Poise Maximum Pads deliver added reassurance for persistent wetness, with greater absorbency than moderate or regular pads.
Has anyone else been drinking more? I noticed the lady and I have gone from once or twice on the weekends to three or so times now…usually at least one weekday. Not good. Anyone else? I feel with this Corona thing there’s a “let’s live!…because we might die!” …that is subconscious.
Trying to maintain my schedule and only drink Fridays and Saturdays.
Me too, and failing. Need my discipline back!
When it’s end times it’s more fun to just say fuck it. I need to get out of that mindset. Else I’ll become Jack.
Brewers report keg sales flat as a pancake but can sales are through the roof.
Which is fine by me since Ninkasi has a Brite full of a special run Whitaker #13 aka “Fuckin it up, Bud”. Got a crowler of it the other day and I’m bringing a Corney with me next time.
Bought my wife a guitar last year and she tried online lessons through you tube for awhile then quit. That’s ok. I have always wanted to try because it just seems to be something that would be mentally therapeutic in a crazy world. Especially now. Does anyone have a good suggestion for online lessons? I have no idea where to start beyond you tube. Someone you, Angry, or anyone would suggest. Thanks
Personally I saw learn a few easier songs first because it will be a bit more rewarding, then learn open cords and some G, E and C chord progressions along with different strum patterns, that should keep you busy for a while. Mix in some bar chords too.
It really depends on your goals and style.
Ean gave solid advice for most players. YouTube should have all you need for free. But if you expand on your goals and style I might be able to point you to specific guys on there.
The beginning won’t be fun. Your fingers are going to have to get used to doing things that are foreign to them.
Once you power through that not so fun/this is work phase you’ll be able to concentrate more on the rhythm/timing/making it actually sound like a song part and that’s when it starts to get good.
A more positive spin: I’ve actually been exercising a lot more. I was in decent shape before, but I realized I needed to do something to mitigate the background stress of everything going on outside our quarantine.
no, just one a day at cocktail hour, as before, but I’m getting a lot more done on my projects (even allowing for an extra hour a day debating with you all here on AB).
guy…thanks for that donation, bud.
Sometimes I wake in the middle of the night, like tonight…just caught it. Big thanks. I don’t recognize the name. Email me and let me know your username.
since we’re getting confessional around here, I didn’t vote for President in 2016. I felt Hillary was a crook and Trump wasn’t acceptable. During primary season I voted for Bernie in 2016 and Tulsi Gabbard earlier this year. My only conceit in this debate is that I think I can explain Trump, what’s he’s trying to do once you get past the narcissism (which isn’t unique to him as a President, only more tangible) and why some people find him appealing. I challenged the readers up above (and only one reader has responded) so let me repose it here: if everything was so great before Trump how does a guy with his obvious limitations get elected in the first place? or, in the more immediate sense, if the US was uniquely unprepared because of Trump’s blandishments, how do you explain the problems countries in the EU or Canada are having with the outbreak?
There is more than a few thesis in how he got elected. Personally I think he’s good at making bianary choices where he frames it as being with him or being wrong. He has no problem lieing, exaggerating and making things up to make this division and create loyalty. For example the wall. Mexico had not paid but he did take money from the millitary and FEMA.
Can you elaborate on other countries problems? We have the highest reported infection count, highest daily infections, medical supply shortages and we will likely have the highest daily and highest total deaths count before long. Not sure where we look good compared to other countries.
If you look at per capita cases and deaths, most EU countries are still well ahead of us by 2x or more. Now, we have a lower population density, so this sort of makes sense, but I think there’s some immediacy bias at play in the feeling that we’re so much worse off than European countries. I do think we would have been worse off without the early China ban, but there was plenty more we could have done to prepare. Unfortunately, past instances where there was news of disease outbursts in China, but it never came to the West seems to have conditioned us all.
How much of that is just being earlier in the curve though? I think it’s safe to say places like Spain and Italy are atleast a week ahead of us just based in total infection/death. I know some countries will roll higher or lower on mortality but the US is at 2% of confirmed cases. Italy and Spain are closer to 10%.
Idk if per capital basis is a great way to measure this kind of thing. Is it acceptable to lose 100,000 people or 0.5%? To me 100k is really not good. Half a percent sounds small but that’s 1.65m people. I get the point but it’s hard to rationalize the potential for that much semi-preventable death.
Nuc- regarding the per capita basis….100K does sound scary. But isn’t that what the media does…broker in panic, fear and then profit off of sensationalism? I’d agree 100K does not look good yet that’s why some people have compared the death rate to the flu. Mostly because when the news starts talking about how many people will X…others want to put it into perspective of how “bad” it is or isn’t. And I’m not convinced we have the real story on Covid19 one way or the other to know how “BAD” it is.
Eugene. Woman has a heart attack, goes to hospital and dies. They tested her a couple days later and she had Covid 19. She was reported as the first Covid19 death in Lane County. So did she die of Covid19? Did she die of a Heart Attack? Did she have a heart attack because of Covid19? I don’t know but I do know she was reported as the first Covid19 death in lane county. The cynic in me says if someone died in a car wreck and they tested for Covid 19 they’d record that as a Covid19 death not auto accident. It’s these type of things that breed the critical questioning of what is being reported and what the truth is?
California has shown a decrease in weekly total deaths since January, could this be because less people are driving and therefore less driving deaths? Another interesting thing is the decline in Flu/Pneumonia deaths that seem to correlate to increase in Covid19 deaths. Others on this site have speculated that this virus may have been circulating long before the first reported case. We had multiple family members with a similar sickness in Dec and Jan. Went to dr and got a flu test. All were negative for the flu. What was it? We were told a unknown virus and told to go home and do self care etc. could it have been Covid19?
And in all of this we have family who would fall in the at risk category. So we’re taking this seriously. Yet at the same time the questions arise about the accuracy of the information and the decisions being based on those decisions. Or the justification for all the extraordinary measures.
I think you’re proving the point that, within a certain window of outcomes, it’s sort of silly to try to make a numerical argument for who did a better or worse job of prevention. That being the case, claiming that the Trump administration handled this thing so much worse than an alternative administration would have is pretty hollow.
Politicians are reviled all around the world. If you asked someone in another country about how their country has handled this, they would probably almost all tell you they were disappointed. This is certainly the case with the sample size I have of colleagues on five different continents.
Maybe once we’re done with this wave we can look back on it and try to put together the National COVID-19 Response Tournament Bracket.
All good points DE. I totally agree that it’s difficult to claim one country is doing well and another is doing poorly. It’s also very obvious that community transmission was prevelant before the US took the threat seriously at any level.
To me the biggest failure was lack of tests and lack of testing at ports of entry. We should have been testing at ports of entry in February but until the travel bans piled up there was pretty much nothing. If we were going to contain and case trace then we needed to stop any additional cases coming in.
Hopefully we learn stuff and pay attention to lessons learned. I don’t think many countries are doing a good job. Czech Republic seems to have success but not a lot of great jobs out there.
and yet, yesterday, when Trump said the US had conducted more tests than any other country, a reporter, checking her phone for a message someone back at the office sent her, asked if tests per capita were a better measurement of improvement on the testing front. There, of course, the American number wasn’t as good, thus the snarky redirection. Trust me on this folks, people in the middle, such as myself, see through this double standard journalism.
In terms of a travel ban, that’s fallacy. https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/the-facts-on-trumps-travel-restrictions/. Clearly it wasn’t effective on its own and/or too late. In terms of epidemiology, it was clear weeks ago, to many americans that given the absent/mild symptoms in a large subset of Covid infections, testing was key to containment. It SHOULD have been clear weeks before that to some influential national public health expert that testing was key and there should have been an action plan in place. America fell on its face there, feds AND public sector. The buck stops at the top. That MERS, SARS and Ebola never established in the US should NEVER condition public health experts or stifle their power to enact effective response.
concur. Trump should have imposed a travel ban sooner than he did, and it likely would be worse now if he had imposed it later than he did.
What no one in the media wants to focus on is that, as Trump wants to say with his limited skills of expression, the professionals charged with scoping the response, and that includes Fauci, dropped the ball back in mid to late January with their archaic system requiring all test data to be sent to Atlanta.
Let’s talk about teachers for a moment. I know several. They’ve been silently crossing their fingers that Summer break actually started a week before Spring break. Now, it’s sounding like they’re getting their wishes, as school(at least in Oregon) are prepared to have the remainder of the school year taught by parents at home. In many cases, we’re talking about households with working parents who don’t have the time or flexibility in their schedule to teach their kids from home simultaneously.
Yet when “school” started up again yesterday, teachers are nowhere to be found for instructions, lesson plans, etc. There have been a few people from the district who have reached out with web links, etc, but the response in general has been very underwhelming.
So is the plan for teachers to be allowed to continue to collect a full salary as if they worked a full year, but be let off the hook from actually doing much of anything until next September?
Even better are the teachers I see on facebook making snarky comments about how parents now get to find out how hard their jobs are. Give me a f*#$*g break. These guys complain more about their job than anybody I know, and they’re getting paid full time salaries to work 1/2 of the time most other people work this year(plus we’re doing you’re job now)
I got mixed feelings. I don’t like the general tone of the teacher haters out there. The classic “those that can do, those that can’t teach” saying drives me crazy. And while pay varies wildly by district 60-80k a year with a pension, decent healthcare and summer break is solid. The thing that sucks though is they all get paid the same, the guy mailing it in teaching straight from the book and not working a minute over the contract hours makes the same as the teacher that spends extra hours coming up with creative lesson plans and trying to reach every student. But the complaining about pay grows a bit old, like you knew what you signed up for.
My parents were both teachers, so I’ve been hearing it pretty consistently most of my life.
Thing is, they’re retired, drawing from PERS and pulling in pretty good pay days. Definitely not hurting.
It’s probably me just being jealous of a career that only requires you to be on the clock September/October/(half of)November(half of)December/January/February and 1 week of March. That’s about 5 months of work and now they’re laughing a the parents who are working full time while also teaching their kids. Know your audience teachers.
Yeah, though tier 2 and 3 aren’t as generous as tier 1 it is still a guaranteed pension, rare these days. Some teachers are raking it in though. My old weight lifting teacher (literally chillest job ever) did the money match and gets close to 10k a month in retirement. I mean I don’t wish the guy ill will and think he deserves a decent retirement but one example of how out of whack the system is.
Yeah tier 1 PERS is an absolutely ridiculous golden parachute money pit. Looks like about $30 billion unfunded at the moment? With “more taxes” being their only plan for funding it.
Maybe Covid19 will reduce the tier 1 liability… I kid, I kid. Not sure what you can do besides more taxes though, seems like a lot of proposed solutions will just end up with costly litigation and eight back to where you were. Inflation could end up helping though.
This isn’t PC, but I’m sick of teachers demanding more salary. Like…you have 1/4 of the year off, and the job isn’t that hard other than dealing with whining kids. But isn’t that why you got into it? If you wanted a huge salary with no kids around go be an investment banker…
You pick a career knowing what it entails, then complain about every aspect of it? Maybe they need to go back to school themselves and start a career change.
Every year on the property tax vote there’s “increase property tax to pay teachers”…no. I don’t even have kids! How about they change jobs, and people who know what they’re getting into with the “difficulty of the job” and the salary take those jobs? That’s a better solution. Free market/capitalism!
I don’t think “you knew what you signed up for” really gets the point here for two reasons:
A) We have an economic system that basically forces the vast majority of adults to work out of necessity (thanks, inflation!). This means they have few options for what they can do with their kids, and teachers/schools are taking on more of the burden of raising kids. This is a multi-decade trend that’s well-documented. Schools are hiriing more non-teacher employees to staff these extra services, which takes away from what they can pay teachers.
B) Teachers have a very high-touch role in society. We should be valuing them more and valuing high performance in that role more. Free market principles tell us you can only attract the best talent into that profession with higher pay. Investment bankers have crappy jobs, too. Most work ridiculous hours and rarely get to see their families. But the smartest/highest achieving people are drawn to that industry because it pays so well.
I think one of the big problems is that compensation for teachers is structured to attract people that are just interested in a steady paycheck and a safe, conservative retirement. There’s no opportunity to stand out in your field and there’s not a way to be rewarded for it if you did. So we’ve created a system that doesn’t pay well AND attracts only the “play it safe” types within the subset of people who would work a job that doesn’t pay well.
Also, most teachers have to spend their “1/4 of the year off” working a part-time job to pay the bills or pursuing district-mandated continuing education on their own dime. Plus, most work 10-11 hour days during the week between the time spent at school and prep/grading/continuing education time.
There’s a good book on this topic called “Teachers Have it Easy.”
Relevant to a previous topic, this is part of how I departed from Libertarian thinking. We educate our kids at home (in addition to sending them to school, which they get little out of other than social interaction), and I strongly believe in parents’ roles in teaching their kids, both academic and non-academic subjects. But I also recognize most people don’t see things the same, and I’d rather live in a society where more kids got a quality education from someone, even if it isn’t their parents.
My girls teachers have been in constant contact with my kids. At least once a week they send emails or letters with small lesson plans or a link to some project to do. I was on the same line of thinking as you, until my wife reminded me it was spring break. Right after that the letters started. If fact in about an hour the teachers are going to do a driving parade to come wave at all the kids from their cars.
I agree that teachers have it really good. Oregon teachers are some of the highest paid in the nation. They use their union to extract more and more benefits often at the expense of the kids. Look at some of the European countries to see what excessive benefits do their economies. This is what happens when entitlements exceed reason.
To be fair the teachers I know personally complain about things like kids not listening (typically these kids parents don’t come to parent teacher night). Administrators not backing them up or understanding their needs. Tons of mandated BS that distracts from actual teaching. I don’t know any that bitch about pay.
I talked to my son’s 4th grade teacher on the phone yesterday and supposedly the middle school is going to call today. Looks like they’re putting together some from home school plans. They already use a digital platform that they access with Chromebooks at school, so they’ll be doing the same from home. This is South Lane school district and they’re pretty good, much better than 4J from my experience.
Their company, their rules. How many companies do you know that allow workers to bad mouth the company they work for to the media? It’s a shitty thing to do I agree.
Its their rules, what do you want me to tell you? I’m union, if I bad mouthed my company I’d be out too. I’m not saying it’s a good thing or that I agree, I’m just saying it’s the rules that company has put in place. Either you follow them or you go somewhere else, I’m sure those doctors won’t be out of work for long anyway.
I get where you are coming from but the admin needs to listen to experts. At my wife’s hospital they arent allowing doctors to wear masks for non Covid19 patients. Some of the doctors want to wear masks all day because they are aware of asymptomatic spread and want to slow the rate if spread and prevent wide scale transmission to their coworkers. Management is afraid that if people are wearing masks in the halls that will scare patients. At a certain point the bean counters need to get the hell out of the way and let people do their jobs.
Actually I’m not clear that there ARE ‘rules’ about such things. Again, saying there is a lack of supplies isn’t badmouthing.
“Hey BB, how is the supply chain getting to you?
Well we’re short on some things.
You’re fired.”
??
BTW Peace sucks so I’m all for their workers moving on and they can try and go it alone with healthcare and poor management, and no healthcare workers. Good luck to them.
About wearing masks all day. The reason they don’t allow it in most cases is the chance of cross contamination. Say a doctor sees 15 patients in a day with the same mask on, say the first patient happens to have covid with no symptoms. They are breathing in the aerosols into that mask, then blowing it out with the remaining 14 patients. Maybe the chances are low of spreading that way, but there is a chance nonetheless. The WHO and CDC cant agree on how prevalent the spreading is as of right now, their not sure if the aerosols stay in the air for long or not. Nor do they know what is making spread the fastest, direct contact or aerosol. If you look back in early February the CDC was recommending people not wear masks because they didn’t know how to use them properly, now they are recommending them for people who are out in public.
The mask isn’t going to make much difference for the cross contamination. The doctors aren’t changing between patients so it will be all over clothes and everything else. At least the nurses though are either treating Covid19 or non Covid19 patients all shift.
I’m not sure speaking the truth (we lack gear) is “badmouthing”…that’s the issue.
Plus, we have whistle blower laws in place to protect people should a company be doing something wrong. These medical companies are private, but they get government money, so I’m not sure if those laws apply or not, or if an equivalent applies to private companies. But I’m not sure why you’d support hushing truth, either way.
I’m not supporting it. I’m saying that company has rules if you want to work there, follow them. Is it a surprise to you that hospitals are critically low on PPE? It’s been in the news cycle for 6 weeks, its hardly a whistle blower situation. What the companies are doing is trying to lessen the panicking and get people who may have symptoms actually come in and get tested rather then freaking them out to the fact they are low on supplies.
So now you have someone who may have a slight temperature and a scratchy throat (mild symptoms) who see reports non stop about PPE being low. They take that as the hospitals have no PPE and would rather take their chances at home or ignore their symptoms altogether. Then they go into public and infect more people.
Yes and no, right this moment we are short on testing, by the end of the week we should be pumping those number up with the 5 minute tests being delivered. mind you they are still testing and producing the 45 minute and longer tests at the same time effectively doubling or tripling available tests and testing.
by the way, remember the previous thread of dialogue about the bending curve in Washington? the King County (Seattle) health department director admitted as much yesterday.
I think Oregon is doing a good job. They’ve taken measures early enough to flatten the curve. Also helps population density is lower than most states. Only one large metro area. If they can keep Portland under control, the state shouldn’t get overwhelmed.
The University of Washington closing down the first week of March, with hundreds of international students circulating around campus having just come back from Christmas vacation and the like, was THE key step.
I mentioned yesterday the pollution reduction in China and how I’d like to see a comparison done here just to see what it would look like. Wish answered. https://electrek.co/2020/03/30/coronavirus-clean-air-electric-cars-adoption/amp/
Although this guy apparently thinks batteries that run these electric vehicles just magically appear with zero environmental impact.
Another public figure, Chris Cuomo, saying he has tested positive after having mild initial symptoms, and is going into a stay at home quarantine now.
Another example of a person getting tested as positive, despite no need hospitalization. I feel like these types of cases are severely under-reported at this time since most who get tested are getting tested only after they present severe symptoms.
And again, the symptoms read very similar to what I(and my wife to a lesser extent) experienced a couple of Saturday’s ago. Pretty sure my kids also had the same, but they’re young enough that they wouldn’t know how to verbalize exactly what they were feeling. But I do remember one evening my daughter complaining about a weird sensation in her legs and she was shivering/trembling for about an hour, right around bed time just a few days after my initial symptoms.
The good news, none of us experienced much worse than this. The symptoms just progressed/changed day to day for about 2 weeks and mostly disappeared. Still coughing up stuff on occasion, but it hasn’t really affected my breathing at all. And yes, we’ve been home nearly 100% of the time since then, other than an occasional trip to get groceries or a solo walk for exercise in the neighborhood.
Same boat here. Whole friend group got sick 8 days after one of.the husband’s had most of the symptoms. We’re 12 symptom free now so if it was covid it was early.
Family is starting to go nuts. We started isolation Feb 24th haha
All of you, call your docs and see if you can get tested to see if you had the virus. Could help medical people map treatments or a vaccine. Of course this only matters if you can’t catch the virus twice…
I guess I’m not surprised a doctor may be a little brighter than the average reporter when it comes to talking about medical stuff?
Nothing against reporters. Just kindof what I would expect.
My wife’s knowledge of the law is way above my head, but she’s also an attorney.
You know I don’t agree with quiet a few people on here politically. So what, I won’t argue with them.i avoid those posts like the (wait for it) plague. We all have a wealth of knowledge aquired through our lives and the sharing of that is way more important to me than politics. Obviously sports come 1st but we’re kinda in a pickle for sports right now.
listening to Fauci explain modeling to the press is like watching Einstein give a lecture to first graders. the media’s lack of cognitive capability is truly distressing.
Those who were pleased a month or so ago to learn that Mikayla Pivec was added to the list of candidates for the Senior CLASS Award may be interested to learn that the results are in.
The award, which claims to recognize excellence in the areas of: Classroom, Community, Character, and Competition, is said to be determined equally by three constituencies; fans, coaches, and media.
Despite garnering over 60% of all fans votes, Mikayla did not win the award. Her degree in Biohealth Sciences (3.93 gpa) and progress toward a Masters in BioChemistry and BioPhysics weren’t enough to move her ahead of the winner. Neither was the fact that she co-started the Beavs CARE program, did an honors thesis on efficient ways of getting access to resources for the homeless and, among other things, contributed some 257 hours to community service through Athletic Department sponsored events.
Did she lose out to the senior from Belmont who, while also working as a Registered Nurse, led the country in five statistical categories and garnered around 13% of the fans votes for the award? No.
The winner, a very very good player, received less than 5% of the fans votes. She graduated in General Social Sciences and is working on a “Master of Advertising and Brand Responsibility”. Her character and community service is highlighted by the fact that, “she takes time after games to sign autographs”. Seriously!
First!
Weird. I’ve never even heard of you, and here you are being first.
Long time lurker, saw no one posted yet so thought I would be first.
Gotcha. Welcome.
Is that the beer?
Starting off with a bang. Looks like my fears of him not supporting Governors who don’t flatter him are real. From his own mouth too.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/27/coronavirus-trump-told-pence-not-to-call-washington-michigan-governors.html
as I noted in the last thread, Trump’s pathetic need for praise is his Achilles heel. Has anyone done a psychological profile on this syndrome, generically, as opposed to Trump specifically, which would, inevitably, take on a tendentious tone.
Narcissism?
Trump Derangement Syndrome
TDS truly exists, and we see a little bit of it on this site. As I said on the previous thread, aspects of Trump’s behavior are truly problematic, but he’s not always wrong. What is equally problematic is the stilted coverage of him in the news. For example, just this morning NPR took after Fauci and Birks, suggesting that they are compromised simply because they appear on a stage with the guy. As if we’d be better off if the press drove them off? As Biden would say, “c’mon man!” So let me conclude with this: I try to apply the foundational premise of this site–critical thinking. I’m not a Trump cheerleader, or an opponent. I merely try to help explain how he got to be president and what he’s trying to do, even if, as is so often the case, he can’t verbalize it himself because of self-evident personal limitations.
WB, yep. Trump is right on a few issues, like getting off China…
But a broken clock is right twice a day, too. Doesn’t mean it’s a good clock.
Narcistic.personality disorder or anti social personality disorder are common guesses from psych types.
I get it. To me him dropping these nuggets are terrifying. He literally said that he directed the guy in charge of response to not.csll governor’s who don’t appreciate him. Then he jokes that Pence will do it anyways. Then he spends ten minutes equivocating that not appreciating him is the same as not appreciating the efforts of healthcare workers, armed forces, army corp, first responders or people risking their lives keeping the essentials going.
So what if Pence follows orders and stops talking to governor’s who aren’t helpful? What I’d they prioritize supplies and aid to states that are the most appreciative.
I watched all 1 hr and 37 minutes and it was like a horror movie. For people who want to defend his response please explain why we are doing so badly? Is the deep state doing it? I’m confused how him literally saying this stuff means I’m derranged. Sounds like supporters are normalized to his words and actions.
The amount of “terrifying” stuff he’s said that has actually come to fruition is FAR outweighed by the stuff that hasn’t. He’s an elderly narcissist with no filter under a tremendous amount of pressure and holding the loudest microphone in the world. He has a hard time articulating what he means so he speaks in very plain language (a blessing on the campaign trail, a curse at the podium). “Appreciate” can mean any number of things with someone like this. It’s anyone’s guess what he actually means.
I’m not a Trump supporter, but those who oppose him probably have healthier ways to spend their time than agonizing over every little thing he says when his words mean so little. The fruit of all this worrying has been…what, Joe Biden?
Worry about what you can control, not what you can’t.
That is good advice. It’s a bit hard to not get sucked into the show right now for some reason haha.
Thank you for the cool headed response, it did make me feel considerably better.
Biden…good lord
Dude is a sociopath?
Idk, his public persona certainly fits symptoms of both in current DSM. Only a licensed psychiatrist who sees him privately could make that diagnosis.
Has anyone seen the series “Survivors?” The few episodes I saw were pretty good and even had some humor. A flu epidemic wipes out most of the world, and a cast of characters carries on. Lasted 2 seasons I think…the second series was atually delayed a season by a flu epidemic. Anyhoo, you might check it out for fun…
Beer. Gummies. Instagram work-out videos. Pacing. Loud music. Let’s hear your coping techniques.
Seem Mohave settled into a new routine;
Read newspapers on line
Check stock market
Check AngryBeavs
Walk outside
Read… so far…. finished Grant, American Dirt, working on Washington
lunch
nap
check stock market
check AngryBeavs
In house weight work out
walk outside with wife
watch Netflix… Tiger King, McBillions (so far)
tv news
check AngryBeavs
watch Netflix with wife…. Narcos Mexico just started Ozark season 3
read… lights out
Repeat…
As a retired person with the exception of not being able to go the gym, restaurants, movies or friends homes, it’s not all that much different.
We, luckily, had just returned from a month in Mexico, so travel urge is under control for awhile. Will probably be canceling an up coming trip in early May.
Hang in there… buds. We’ll get through it and back to bitching about important stuff, like football, pretty soon.
classic, bone.
You need to stop checking the stock market, it’s not healthy.
Scouring the internet for the most outrageous virus doomsday claims, then trying to convince myself they aren’t real.
I read this as “beer gummies” and was instantly intrigued.
Going through the movie collection…watched Shooter, Rio Bravo & X-men Days of Future Past yesterday/last night.
I think I can make it most of 2 months before I have to re-watch any.
Thanks for the new thread, Angry. We’ll probably need at least one new one a week; maybe more if things spiral out of control. Welcome to Red Hook.
45,000 urns distributed in Wuhan alone.
http://www.asianews.it/news-en/Wuhan,-endless-queues-for-ashes-of-coronavirus-dead-cast-doubts-on-numbers-49673.html
It’s shocking anyone believed their numbers to begin with.
Projections wanna was mentioning.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
That fits my instinct of mid May to June seeing a leveling in rate of growth. Was just basing it off quick math in my head. From now til early May is going to be bad.
Thanks to the reader who made a donation last night. Sent you an email personally, but I don’t know if that’s a legit email and you got it.
Great interview with Kiril Sokoloff on Real Vision this morning.
Raoul Pal: He said, so that leaves a economic situation where it’s not eight weeks. It could be eight months. It could be longer. Andhe said, the problem is the government, all the businesses, and all of the people run out of money in about three months. And he said, they don’t have the ability to print money. He’s like, I don’t know what happens. And I thought that was a very honest thing to say, because that’s a true fact, is when you shut down supply, demand, and consumption all at the same time, the government can’t just print enough money to cover the entire GDP, because you destroy–and this has been one of your core points for a long time–is you destroy the monetary system that you built it on.
SOKOLOFF:Yeah, that’s exactly right. I have a theory about it all. And I’ve felt for years that the rate of change was unbearable. There are few people, Ray Kurzweil, Singularity, it’s people who can deal with this change and allow this degree of change. But for 99.9999% of the world, it was just unbearable. And what happened is that essentially, the human species just had a nervous breakdown, that’s what happened. I’m looking at it from a different standpoint. And there’s a wonderful quote by Pascal that, “The hardest thing in the world and the cause of all the problems is that man can’t sit quietly in a room by himself.” Well, hello. Here we are, and we’re going to be thinking and pondering, why did this happen? Why weren’t we prepared? Why were we rushing in this direction? Why were we so mindless? And I think it will start to hit a lot of people. And I think there’s a spiritual component to it as well, which is, it’s going to be very hopeful and good. But out of the worst tragedies come some of the best changes, but the pain is going to be agonizing.
Real Vision had a 3 month trial for $1, so if that’s still available jump on it. Very good content. Good way to spend down time.
When he said “I have a theory about it all. And I’ve felt for years that the rate of change was unbearable. ” did he have more context about WHAT change? Was he referring to supply/demand/consumption?
Have you ever read Panarchy? You should give that a try: Panarchy, Lance Gunderson & C.S. Holing
https://www.amazon.com/Panarchy-Understanding-Transformations-Natural-Systems/dp/1559638575
One of my favorite quotes in it: “the ultimate pathology of such…resource exploitation and management examples is to create less resilient ecosystems and more rigid institutions, and deeper social dependencies. “
Here’s the transcript: https://www.realvision.com/rv/media/Video/73f5acc12c5a4a8cb98a4881a4e4ee72/transcript
Can you read that without a membership/login? If not email me, and I can send you the transcript.
I’ve never read that book, no. Thanks for it. Will put it on my watchlist.
PS. I love the Pascal quote above. So true. Kind of along the “idle hands” thesis.
I can’t, I get a “404” error, site not found, creepy looking mannequin.
technical question: what does a 404 error actually signify (beyond the obvious that the link won’t work)?
If he’s talking about Ray Kurzweil, probably just the general rate of human change. RK is considered “The” Futurist.
Think about how much smart phones changed humanity over the course of 5-6 years (the exponential period) and even since then. That’s just one technology.
So many other foundational institutions of American society have changed in a generation: college, housing affordability, etc.
Too much debt bringing too much of the future into the present all at once. Unfortunately, now the pendulum is reversing direction with the same inertia and the impact of that debt/spending will hit us with a similar magnitude, but in different ways.
“NEW: CDC guidance on masks expected to change in next 10 days. Americans will be advised to wear masks in everyday life. Current recommendation is for high-risk groups only.”
https://twitter.com/DrMattMcCarthy/status/1243891663162019841
Where are all of those masks going to come from?
Local kid was trying to import 12 cases of masks to send friends around the US and US customs confiscated them. Maybe that’s the new US strategy for supplying masks?
But I thought our 15 cases would disappear one day like a miracle?
Just hit the 12k new case today, and it’s not even noon.
stupid comment: but is that better, worse, or equal to the NYC public health official who, at the same time, was telling people that here’s nothing to worry about and go out and enjoy the lunar new year?
The CDC’s immediate response was “we don’t have updated guidance scheduled to come out on this.”
Let’s worry about medical personnel having enough masks first.
My RN wife has 4 from an old job and 2 a customer donated to her, she’s locked and loaded. ;^/
I agree, get them to health care workers first. That’s why my concern for any recommendation stating everyone should wear them…there are not enough already.
They come from the SEIU who was secretly hording 39 million mask and just miraculously found them. That SEIU is the one representing heath care workers on the west coast. The union found a distributer to sell them for $5 a piece. That’s a 600% mark up if you were wondering.
Wow. That’s some scummy shit.
Shitty and shitty. Thats only 10% of what we need for everyone to have 1. Wild.
It’s being played off now, the SEIU is stating they only found a distributer that had the stock not them. So now who do we believe? And who is the scumbag that was keeping these from the health care workers? Either the SEIU had them and is trying to make them selves look good, but why put out a press release like this? Or a distributer was sitting on the stock while hospitals were crying out for help. Seems the hording law the DOJ put out should be used for this, especially since they’re marking them up so much.
And, who the hell forgets about 39 million masks? It’s not like they found that in a coat closet somewhere.
They are small but not THAT small.
Idk if the DOJ will bother honestly. Whoever has them should just get them seized.
Source for your SEIU claim?
https://www.businessinsider.in/policy/economy/news/a-massive-stockpile-of-39-million-n95-masks-is-being-sold-to-american-hospitals-around-27-million-more-than-the-us-governments-emergency-stockpile/articleshow/74838092.cms
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-39-million-n95-medical-masks-stockpile-us-hospitals-union-2020-3
I know the guy is under alot of pressure, but what does this even mean?
Trump seems to think if we didn’t have his specific staff in place and we need to appreciate the “helluva job” they’re doing, because without them, we “wouldn’t even have a country left”?
Wow, didn’t realize things we were this close to not existing anymore. Now I’m thankful and will certainly kiss the ring. Nobody else could do the job they’re doing.
https://youtu.be/GUYLQgE3eyc
His “specific” staff that are in constant turnover? “Acting” appointments that don’t require senate confirmation?
Unpopular opinion but will age well just not today
The government may end up doing a great job but this board often fires a coach 5 minutes into the first quarter. I know some people here are very gifted in statistics , angry for sure. Listened to Coumo today in his press conference and you will see the real data that the media hides or if it comes from the white house is not believed.
US has tested more people than the rest of the world. They have tested more people in 8 days then SK did in 8 weeks. 86% who have symptoms are negative. 95% who have it and are mild to less. 3% who catch it will die , extremely rare for someone without underlying issues to die.
The time line is based off China telling the truth. China had 21 million cell phone cancellations last month. Are we believing it did not start in November still?
Trump called racist and blasted in the media when starting to lock things down, flights from China. Dude cares way too much about what people say about him to continue and do the right thing. His Achilles heel is reading the press clippings. Has they worked togther instead of play politics would have worked well. Public is stupid and will re elect every congress person. My wife works for the local hospital in Oregon the flood was to start today and they are now claiming model was too fast it is next week now.
Oregon has more vents and ICU beds available today then yesterday.
If the projected numbers are correct it will be devastating but the data in is almost opposite. But they are never going to come and the week lock down will be extended twice until public pressure is too much.
Cuomo’s press conferences are great. Trump would be well advised to model his after New York’s, clicking though slides, etc. Trump would be averse to that, but some combination of Pence, Fauci, and Birks could. And I agree with your main point: Cuomo actually paints an encouraging picture, but when Trump tries to do it, he gets blasted. Today Cuomo reiterated that the rate of hospitalization is falling but that the public (because of the media) only tracks the cumulative outbreak. The press corps is too stupid to realize that the policy nexus is the rate of increase, not the total number of cases, hospitalizations, deaths, etc.
Some free education resources if you are bored. Classes are typically free and self paced and you pay for the cert.
https://www.edx.org/school/harvardx
https://www.coursera.org/
https://www.khanacademy.org/
https://www.udemy.com/ (I don’t think this one offers free but they do have trial periods)
Angry, I’m intrested in buying some stock with a chunk of stimulus money coming. I have a pretty good nest egg saved up, and a good broker that I trust, but I’d like to mess around with about $1500 on my own just to amuse myself for awhile.
What are your thoughts about what we might see in the near future with the market. I’m thinking about getting a Robinhood account and investing in as couple of things in the short term just to see what I can do.
Mind you this is for fun and absolutley not serious. I really don’t want to do penny stocks or none sense like that. Just buy into 1 or 2 companies and see what happens. What do you think?
Hey buddy. My biggest and most confident positions are AMZN, GOOG, ISRG, SQ, and V.
Some value stocks. IBM, DFS, XLNX, GPC, BBBY (Target CFO hired/turnaround story if they survive this…great balance sheet), ABBV, SO (wait for 40s).
Some speculative stocks with a bright future: TWTR, TWLO, NVDA, NSTG, CRSP, SSYS, ROKU, JNK (FED has to buy all junk bonds, so I’m front running it). I also think NFLX is a winner, but I don’t have a big stake in it or know where it fits. Telsa becomes interesting in the mid 300s. I bought some there but sold it in the 500s. A lot of this will depend on your age. If you’re older go for beaten down value; I could make a full list of those.
Average into all positions slowly with like .25 shares per purchase. Never go all in at once. Also only buy on down days. IMO the overall indexes have to drop at least another 20% to mean revert to fair value, and that is being generous, so I’d average into any position VERY slowly because even stuff that is cheap/awesome will get pulled down further with the overall market. Stocks, on average, are actually more expensive now than a month ago because they only dropped 20% yet their earnings might drop as much as 40-80%. Keep that in mind because it seems to be fooling everyone — price means nothing with no earnings. As investors we don’t know the “e” in the P/E ratio, so everything is a guess, but we can assume at least a 40% drop in earnings. Thus they are pricier now on a P/E basis than in February, hence more downside. Good luck.
For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice of course.
Thanks for the list, Im also looking at aerospace and defense stock. I have a line on one that feeds SpaceX material and with them dumping a few rockets in the ocean recently I’m speculating contracts for new materials are going to be signed soon with Elons starlink hanging in the balance.
Do you think we have seen the bottom yet or are we do for another drop soon? I’m pretty much looking for a jump off point.
I hate Aerospace, having worked in the industry (I actually was at the first Space X launches) and worked for a contractor with them. It’s all govt contracts and teat sucking, which is an awful business model. I tried to warn NiceBeaver about Boeing when it dropped from 350 to 310 on the Maxx news, and he was looking at it. I hope he didn’t buy it. But I said, “That’s a $50 stock”. I stand by that. Teat sucking is not a business model. Those companies should and all will be nationalized. IMO way better opportunity in legit growth patches, which are mostly in up and coming tech and some old guard tech. Take IBM — they’re shitty, old guard, but they have hired the most blockchain engineers of any company over the past five years. I’d much rather put money into the future than an old, dying, government teat sucking industry. But I look for organic growth over crony capitalism. It really depends on your preferences and beliefs.
Which SpaceX related company are you talking about? I can look at the balance sheet.
No, I don’t think we’ve seen the bottom. As I said, but let me reiterate: stocks are a function of price to earnings (and many other things like the balance sheet, but in a basic sense). The P/E ratio. Let’s say for any given stock the price is $100, and earnings per share is $10. P/E ratio is 10. Let’s assume that was any given stock in February before corona. Now let’s say the same stock is down 20% and costs $80. Yet earnings dropped 40% to $6 per share. The P/E is now 13.3. So the stock is actually more expensive despite the stock dropping 20% (i.e. a 13.3 P/E > a 10 P/E). Hedge fund managers and professional money understands this, but a lot of retail investors don’t, so they’re thinking, “20% drop things are cheap!”…only if the “e” remains the same, and the odds of that after corona are near 0. We can see earnings decline for some companies by as much as 80%, so that would make their P/E 27 in the example above. Way more expensive. For this phenomenon alone, I don’t think we’ve seen a bottom. Now, the FED is in markets trying to stop this by printing 6 trillion and the Treasury is handing people checks. If you think that will work, and to the degree you think it will work, then you get closer to your “e”…only if there is zero drop in earnings are stocks cheap, and that just seems so implausible to me. But if you believe that then things are actually cheap. April earnings and the forward guidance on those calls will clarify things. For these reasons, I’m only nibbling at companies I love right now, and it’s what I’d recommend to anyone I care about. Pick things you love and go in slowly with partial share purchases/dollar cost averaging.
Not advice, just opinion/for educational purposes.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/atiIf you ever decide to do a pod cast, reading and understand this would be a great one.
On P/E, is there a sweet spot to buy at? Or are you better off with a lower number as opposed to high?
This is all new to me btw, if you ever get around to doing a podcast, reading the market in layman’s terms should be it. I look at the daily market numbers page for individual stocks from marketwatch. I would love to know what it all meant.
In general, lower P/E is better. In general. Way more too it. I was just trying to explain why the stock market is more expensive now despite the drop. Did that math make sense?
Absolutley thanks man.
Anyone who has been able to keep their job and income through this should be giving the $1200 to local businesses. Seriously, that’s who the stimulus is for and that’s who should get it.
Well most will be used to pay bills and purchase goods mostly food I would imagine. That’s why the stimulus bill gave small businesses 370 billion so they can keep the doors open and cover payroll. It even turns into a grant so long as the business doesn’t layoff workers after receiving the loan.
Anyone who has been able to keep their job and income through this should be giving the $1200 to local businesses. Seriously, that’s who the stimulus is for and that’s who should get it.
Remember, AB is a small business. Very small.
This seems to bode well for starlink maybe, no competition now.
https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/03/oneweb-goes-bankrupt-wont-challenge-spacex-in-satellite-broadband-race/?amp=1
Given Amazon’s employee record, I have trouble investing there. Doesn’t make a bit of difference. Amazon will the world, especially now.Just makes me feel better.
I went to there SEA campus and bio-domes where they have I think 40K employees. They have a crazy culture and encourage the old mining-town-script mentality. The day is broken into 30 minute increments; most meetings “should not take more than 30.” If you get done in 25 minutes, they “give you back 5,” so you can use it to run to their store with facial recognition software, and no tellers, buy your groceries, and just charge it to the employees account.
Dogs are welcome one at work if can get a majority of your “cube mates” to vote their approval, so 3 out if 4. There are a total of about 3K dogs brought to SEA campus. Cats and any other pets are unwelcome.
The domes have diverse plant species with appurtenant, diverse requirements for temperature and humidity. It’s novel, and creates attention, but seems like a bizarre, unnecessary expense.
Their main expenses is power to run their data centers, which constantly crunch data on demand, supply, delivery, and consumer habits to guide (direct) the user on their website.
I think they’ll have a long future, but at some point will need to pare back on some of the novel expenses and practices.
Most of those companies are building solar energy farms to run their data centers. Smart.
Those who speculated in useless desert land probably getting good prices.
I am grateful for many things but after reading the description of the “SEA campus with biodomes” – grateful most of all that I have escaped (and will probably never be imprisoned in that workplace.
Just an alternate perspective/reality: your best use of that money might be food. Very few investments will outperform food over the next few years. I know it’s boring. But it’s not a bad idea until the stock market bottoms (probably six months to a year or so, barring a vaccine). Housing might have a rough patch. Other investments like gold aren’t even a sure thing given the demand for dollars. Food has everything working for it.
Oil stocks/energy commodities are interesting for brass ballz types who can wait a year, too.
I’m ready for the Big One here. We could stop buying food today, and I’d still be eating good well into july. I have a hand crank well pump for my well( I have water at 10 feet) along with filters. And between myself and neighbor (training partner) can arm and supply at least a platoon size group.
Nice.
We have a huge garden from the prior owner I’m trying to figure out; then it’s on to considering chickens, etc.
Fresh eggs at damn good and very different from store bought. I’m lucky to have a neighbor that offers them for 3.50/doz, though he hasn’t sold since lockdown. keeping them fir himself and I don’t blame him.
I haven’t done chickens yet, maybe someday, I need to get the kids on board with it. They want some, but don’t understand they won’t stay baby chicks forever.
And I have an alternative anyway, Bassett Hound burritos as and Chesapeake bay retriever fajitas. This is a running joke with my wife ever since I got laid off 3 years ago (I’m working now and much happier). I told her if things got real bad there’s always the dogs. She asked about the cat and I told her they’re to stringy.
I highly recommend chickens. We just restocked our thinned out flock with 20 chicks. They are pretty easy to keep and the eggs are fantastic. And it is something easy to do with your kids though I understand the young ones just wanting the chicks.
That’s where I’m at with chickens. My boys are big enough to help out and understand how it goes. I have the space, my only concern is making sure the dogs stay away, and I need another job like I need a hole in my head.
We were down to 4 hens due to predators. Added 5 new chicks for egg laying and 6 meat birds this week.
Chickens are super easy to raise. If you like fresh eggs and chicken that you knowwhats been fed? Do it! You wont regret it.
We have three chickens, definitely not enough to keep up with a family of four, especially so during the winter.
We supplement with eggs from local farm Winn Farms, highly recommend them if you’re local to Corvallis and can’t have chickens, or like us, need more occasionally
I’ve had thoughts of fencing off the back end of my property behind my shop where my garden beds are. Could put a coop back there and let them do their thing. I hear they’re hell on snails. Do they peck at garden vegetables?
WSN, I’d only get egg layers, we get out in the fall a lot and get in to grouse and quail. That’s enough plucking and shit for me haha.
Yes, they’re great on garden bugs and also yes, you’ll need to fence off any garden beds.
Crap, I was hoping I could just let em patrol the beds. My garden beds are already raised but only about knee high, so I’m sure they’d be able to get in and out.
I also have a raspberry patch and about 10 blueberry plants around the back of my house and shop. When I first bought my house I had a lot of flowers and other nice plants. As time went on I started to get a bit annoyed at putting in time/money/effort and getting only flowers in return. So I started pulling out the pretty stuff and replacing it with plants that give back for my effort. I still have a massive butterfly tree and an old growth wisteria back there that keep the bees happy.
They love blueberries, I have several videos of them picking berries, jumping straight up they can get up a good three feet, easily
https://imgur.com/a/UYyMaw8
My neighbor apparently thinks he’s going to do a full frame off restoration of a 1984 Cutlass Supreme in his front yard in the rain starting now. Going over to punch him in the face now. If his giant swamp donkey wife has anything to say about it she can get some too! Wish me luck God speed and go beavs
The nerve…now if it were a ’78 monte carlo…
Check back in if you make it back. Curious to hear how it goes…
Swampass Beav?
I’m interested in how it turns out myself.
She’s rolling in the swamp with Putin!!
Get your city involved. My neighbor tried that with a burned out Mercedes to restore for his grandson, supposedly. He was cited for: non-running vehicle, illegal parking and expired plates. Given forty eight hours to remove before it wad towed and he incurred fines and towing expenses. He never knew I ratted him out.
I don’t really care….. but sort of curious about the down votes? Not macho enough?
Maybe your neighbor reads AB. On 3 separate devices
Not him…. died in 2015.
Snitches get stitches.
They’re locating many data centers in the Columbus river corridor to tap into cheap hydro and existing grid infra structure.
Data centers in Redmond and prineville too. It’s the terminus if one of the main west to east fiber runs.
Just checking in to let everyone know that wiping with carrot greens is not very effective and invariably you get some on your hands and your bum doesn’t get very clean either. Time to start hoarding tp!
‘You were supposed to use a corn cob’
-Mike Huckabee
Does it work better with the orange part?
I suppose you could chop the greens off with a little of the carrot attached. Gently insert and viola you can grow your own carrot and not need to take a dump until the carrot has reached a good eating size. Pro tip :sunbathing nude with the booty up with make them grow faster
Organic and as locally sourced as you can get.
I like carrots, that’s a timely and profound post.
Today, after 3 hours of pressure washing, I was able to convince my wife that I had earned some nap time. My strategy for tomorrow is that one shouldn’t work on the sabbath.
https://youtu.be/GPo9OBrIOi4
You’re out of your element Donny!!
You are taking things to the extreme if you pressure washed your wife for three hours.
Don’t give WSN any ideas.
But she is clean and shiny now!
I see the Ducks MBB has advanced to the Elite Eight in the mock NCAA Tourney being “played out” by the fish hack in Portland. I’m sure they’ll have the Ducks winning it all because they’re that damned good. LOL!
It must truly be the end times apocalypse.
You can pump your own gas in Oregon!!!! OMG.
So they are throwing the “safety” issues under the bus, LOL.
Question for the locals, if you have an electric car, does someone have to plug it in for you?
If it’s not the end times yet, this will surely usher it in. There are going to be some people who really struggle with this.
Realistically most people don’t need gas right now if they are obeying the guidance. Chasing TP rumors can eat up the miles though
My teen daughter was having ‘a moment’ yesterday when confronted with the horror of having to pump her own gas.
She’d be ok if someone showed her but she was freaking out at the thought of having to do it solo.
That gas pump handle has to be one of the worst surfaces to touch. Everybody in the community touches it. Many likely don’t wear a glove or clean their hands. Then you get back in your car and touch every surface with the same hand, eventually wiping your nose with the same hand.
That and the self checkout stations at grocery stores have to be some of the biggest culprits in spreading this virus.
This whole thing is making me consider the idea of installing copper doorknobs and other hardware in my home. That’s one surface that has been proven to significantly reduce the chance for survival of microbes. It’s interesting to read about the history of copper and past pandemics, how people who worked in trades that involved frequent contact with copper surfaces had a pretty good history of being unaffected by community spread.
My thought exactly. All I could think is the stations don’t have enough people coming in to run them.
Copper is hell on bacteria I know that much. Not sure how it works on a virus, ill look into it.
Edit: Copper can definitely destroy viruses. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antimicrobial_properties_of_copper
My understanding was they were supposed to stay staffed unless/until staffing ran out and then the new order was meant as a stop gap so stations dont have to close entirely.
the folks at OSU are experimenting with copper as a treatment for ALS
Wear gloves.
If you have a diesel vehicle you could always pump your own fuel in Oregon. The rules for no self service only apply to class 2 fuels (gasoline) but not class 3 (diesel, kerosene).
Same goes with silver. Rich folk back in the day carried their own silver spoon(s) as class symbol and as antibacterial (doesn’t kill viruses though). Didn’t realize copper kills viruses too….?
Take a look at what bentonite clay does to MRSA and Buruli ulcer too.
Also it is odd that silver sulfadiazine is the most amazing burn cream and is prescription only…
when Oregon was still the only state to allow physician assisted suicide my son quipped–“Isn’t Oregon great, you can kill yourself but you can’t pump your own gas.”
Rules out self immolation I guess.
Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson have been released from their Australian quarantine and are back in LA.
Their experience with the illness wasn’t too bad. But what I found interesting is reading their list of symptoms they experienced, it reads exactly how I felt the past 15-16 days. First symptoms arriving late Saturday, 2 weeks ago. Off and on symptoms persisting for 2 weeks. Mine was also accompanied by some of the “crud” type of coughing during the last week. Nothing severe, just this lingering illness.
I read this as a good sign that some of the early rounds if people who got this illness are now recovered and those numbers will continue to grow. Unfortunately, some people do experience a much more severe illness, but I’m hopeful this illness is going through the motions and leaving a mostly healthy population behind.
https://www.tmz.com/2020/03/27/tom-hanks-rita-wilson-return-los-angeles-all-smiles-australia-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR3fczP8UYpLOz4f52utaW4FK785DQQNHRJmhB9_Typi6zChcvk-DTqSsr0
Do you think it’s what your parents had? I forget if they got tested…
Both parents started out pretty similarly but the bronchial symptoms progressed much more rapidly and turned into a lingering case of pneumonia that lasted for weeks.
My mom got it pretty early on, like Feb 21st. She still coughs a little, but is otherwise back to normal. She never was offered a test. I dont think Oregon even had testing available that early. Doctor’s saw her twice. First time diagnosed it as bronchitis, but a few days later diagnosed it as pneumonia.
My dad’s started in early March and he’s quite a bit better now but still coughing also. He got tested on about day 2 of his pneumonia symptoms and tested negative.
The skeptic in me thinks he may have already been past the Covid19 virus by the time he got tested, and it had already turned into pneumonia. As I understand it, the test only is testing to see if you currently have it, not if you HAD it.
Neither parent has ever had a severe illness like this before, which makes the whole thing even more suspicious.
But the good news is, everybody is on the mend of nearly back to normal now. The worst part is the being stuck at home and my brother getting furloughed because his business isnt operating at normal capacity.
I’ve heard a lot of cases get misdiagnosed as pneumonia because covid fills the lungs with water. They very well might have had it. I wonder if they can get tested down the road to see if they had it (anyone know if they can test for the virus being dormant in the system?) or see scarring on the lungs. It would be interesting to know if that was what they had. Good sign that they’re old and survived it okay. I’m very concerned about my parents, so it gives me some hope.
The best way to test if you had it would be to look for the antibodies… at least how I understand it, Once they can test the antibodies the could do random sampling and determine how widespread it was and also calculate a way more accurate death rate.
Once this shit is over, see if there GP will get them an antibody test. It will give you piece of mind I suppose.
My family had real similar mild colds that persisted for like 10-14 days. Kind of hoping it was COVID because my wife works around COVID patients and that’d mean she/we have some immunity or at least we can make antibodies quicker if we get it again.
I was reading the account of the Sherwood lady that got quarantined in Japan after the cruise ship. Her test results we from positive to negative and back several times before she got 2 consecutive negatives. Kind of makes you wonder how accurate the test is, seeing as it is brand new too and never been through a clinical trial.
I hope everyone is doing well. I spent the past week furloughing about 70% of my workforce. I work in healthcare, but much of it is considered “non-essential”, so we are pared down to just emergencies and our patient flow has dropped 90%. My allergies have been acting up also, so the few times I was out was sometimes met with suspicion. At least that forces my hot Mormon wife out to do the grocery shopping!
I’d have to find a link, but know I read somewhere about a currently in development blood test to check for existing antibodies, which would be a good indicator if you already have had it pass through you.
Was listening to Dr Fauci interviewed on Trevor Noah a few days ago. He couldnt say with 100% certainty, but thinks if this virus behaves like pretty much every other bronchial virus, the antibodies will give people immunity for the rest of the season.
(I’m paraphrasing, but he sounded pretty confident in that message)
Here’s the link if anybody is interested(Ean might find it informative)
https://youtu.be/8A3jiM2FNR8
^^Meant as a reply to angry above^^
Link to a story about the town of Telluride, CO, where a bio chemical company has developed antibody testing and is testing all 8000 residents in that small community, to see if this strategy could be used more wide spread as a way to give recovered patients a sortof “hall pass” to re enter the workforce and economy after developing immunity to the virus. Makes sense to me. Hope this technology becomes more wide spread quickly so we can have some hope of getting the economy kick started again.
https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Health/antibody-testing-colorado-town-provide-forward/story?id=69856623&__twitter_impression=true
Who is going to the concert tonight?
Greetings from locked-down Western WA! Just like all of you, I miss it all; March Madness, Beaver Baseball, spring football and the hope for fall. This will pass at some point and we can all try and get on with our lives and livelihoods. I know a lot of what is being talked about concerns the financial markets and trying to get back what was ‘lost’. Before I add my 2 cents worth into this conversation, I will just say, I’m just a guy, trying to raise my family the best I can and hoping to have a little left over so that I don’t have to work my *** off the until they plant me six feet under.
I think that I may have something useful to add to this conversation as I have the benefit of time; I’ve seen a lot. My first auto loan for an ’84 Nissan p/u was at 16%! I remember the ’87 event as I had a roommate who was playing the market on margin and got the ‘call’ and had to borrow the money from my cousin to pay it. ’99-’00 – it was the ‘QQQ’ (dotcom bust)with every company in at a high valuation, producing no revenue, with a business model nobody could explain – people just wanted ‘in’. In ’08, lenders started lending money to the gas station attendant so he could buy a $350,000 house.
So when people talk about getting back into this market, I’m a little concerned.
People need to know what has driven the meteoric of the market since ’17 until just 3 weeks ago. Well. when Trump lowered the corporate tax rate in order to repatriate money that was being held overseas, it was meant to be used for R & D and capital investment in order to bring more manufacturing and employment back to the US. What happened is that it sparked a $4.5 TRILLION tsunami of corporate stock-buybacks which shot the market to these ATH’s. Boeing was probably the most egregious abuser of this as they spent $100 Billion to enrich their investors and execs. I bet they wish they had that money back, but maybe not. Now they can go the taxpayer and get $60 billion after exhausting their revolver from their current lender.
At any rate, the problems started back in September of ’19 when the fed initiated their repo operations with the banks. They explained it was a short term operation in order to help entities to get through the quarterly tax season. The thing is, it continued throughout the rest of the fall and was scheduled to end sometime in April. By the time it was all said an done $TRILLIONS would have been spent by the fed in these operations.
Now we come to 3 weeks ago when all hell broke loose with the ‘virus’. Remembering ’08 and what a crisis that was, and all the bailouts and shenanigans pulled by the fed, this looks to be 10 times as bad if you go by just the amount of money that has been thrown at it. “08 look pretty tame in comparison.
The fed has promised to buy it all: treasuries, muni bonds, corporate debt, and yes, even equities. They have promised QE to infinity! My questions is, that if you have an entity that has committed to purchasing everything not nailed down, when does a ‘market’ cease to be a ‘market’? Where is the price discovery? Where is the revenue to justify the valuations? Many of these companies who take the bailout will not be able to pay dividends for up to 2 years.
Again, I don’t know anymore than anyone else and I wish everybody luck. Some of this I have tried to talk to my own sons about; maybe some of it sticks maybe some of it doesn’t. Just be careful out there – return of your capitol maybe more important than return on your capitol in the coming weeks and months…
Yep!
So I’m still fairly young and don’t really have any investments but would like to start. How does one go about doing so?
Depends on how much money you’re investing. Robin Hood is a platform that allows fractional share purchases (so you don’t need as much money to get started), but they’ve had some technical issues lately.
Traditional brokers like Charles Schwab have commission free trading now, so you can open something like an IRA and start investing. As referenced above, now is probably not the time to start. Hold a decent amount of cash until the economic fallout of COVID takes a greater toll on the market.
Before you start buying individual stocks max out any sort of company 401K offer in a long term target fund like a 2050. You will get the advantage of pre-tax contribution plus, maybe, a company match. Don’t try and be a stock picker or a market timer.. Very few can do it successfully.
I was thinking about a Roth IRA.
Roth’s take after tax dollars. If you are working at a company that offers a 401k with a match that is your best first move as a young person. Again a target fund with a long horizon like 2055. After that start to educate yourself. Vanguard and Fidelity offer lots of information on their websites.
401k match is a no-brained. The market would have to fall 50% for it to not be worth it. If you need to, you can withdraw early and the penalties are less than 50%.
I never bought Enron I did buy Lucent though
Start by not asking a part-time soap maker (?) and sports “blogger” for investment advice, like some others here have been. ?????
Check out r/personal finance on Reddit. They have a very in depth guide in the side panel.
Weren’t they telling people to buy 60/40 up until the crash? I’ve never seen anyone on there stray from that model.
They have a bunch of different models based on your age and risk tolerance. Overall their advice is good basic finance.
Well put.
For any small business owners, part of the stimulus bill was $350 billion for loans/grants to small businesses.
https://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/ac3081f6-14ae-4e6f-9197-172ede28badd/71AB6CB05A08E369E0D488A80B3874A5.faqs—paycheck-protection-program-faqs-for-small-businesses.pdf
I’ve already talked to my banker, she said they still dont have all the details at the local level.
Update if you hear anything solid, I’m going to make a few calls tomorrow also.
We bank with Chase, she suggested watching their website for updates and said she would call when they had something definitive.
I think this is one that will require keeping an eye on and not waiting for that call. I watched Mnuchin this morning on the news he doesn’t exactly make me feel like he’s looking out for me.
Oh no shit on that one. None of those fuckers care about us at all, but if they dangle a fat bag of government cash in front of us we’re stupid not to take it. It’s gonna go somewhere. Why not here?
They’re finalizing everything with the treasury, info on loans should be out by midweek.
Someone emailed me this morning, they are in the same business I am in…”The Paycheck Protection Program is a great program for businesses like ours that are staying open.” I’m not sure that this is different as he seems to think but the verbiage is something I’ll keep my eye out for.
anyone heard from oob? havent seen any posts lately
He posted a few days ago in the last thread.
I just sent him a text.
Edit: he’s fine. just taking a break from all things digital. probably good advice.
That’s ironic
Still vertical, thanks.
Outside projects, reloading some .357’s, and still trying to become a fingerpicker on the six string.
I did notice that today is actually National Vietnam War Veterans Day. News to me.
Anyway, welcome home my brothers!
https://www.blogs.va.gov/VAntage/72941/veterans-can-attend-virtual-events-national-vietnam-war-veterans-day/
thanks for the reminder, OOBie, so in that spirit, here’s a remembrance for my friend Ted, best buddy in grad school, best man at my wedding, drafted into the 1st Cav where he became a UH-1 crew chief in Vietnam. Rest well, Ted. See you on the other side.
“Outside projects, reloading some .357’s, and still trying to become a fingerpicker on the six string.”
You weren’t just busy, you were productive!
Hey OOB, what kind of reloading press do you use?
Just a slow old RockChucker. Certainly not the best for high volume, but has served me well.
Spent a lot of time developing loads for .243 and .270; I think that’s it’s best use. Still, putting together 50 or 100 rounds of .38 or .357 isn’t bad and gets me out of my wife’s way!
How about you?….Dillon?
My brother has a Dillon, I have been running the old Lee Classic turret. Works really nice for low volume load development and I can pick up the pace a bit if I need to crank some out. I don’t do much volume so it’s probably about the same as your Rockchucker. Hard to beat the industry standards.
thx for update…agreed that is good advice, I definitely need to put my phone down, and leave it
Angry, I’m seeing crude below $20 bbl. And have been reading about the 70s crude crash, and how long it took to recover globally. Seems like a long haul stock but one that could pay off. Thoughts?
If you can stand, in a worse case scenario, 1 to 2 years of dead money it will pay off.
Better sign of a bottom in oil would be consolidation/bankruptcies. I’ve been watching it closely and picked up peanuts in ConocoPhillips so far ($23 per share I think). A better play might be buying the commodity directly instead of oil stocks, which don’t have great management.
Anyway, the short: worth watching. Doubt this is the bottom, but maybe it is. Really your call. Not a bad time to nibble small.
Yeah I don’t think it’s the bottom either. Especially since Trump’s new announcement.
It could be if Opec/Russia change on a dime. It depends on how much pain they’re willing to take. And of course depends on the length of the depression we’re entering. For these reasons, to me it’s a crapshoot. I think smart money is probably accumulating here and will accumulate more on any drop, then wait two years and sell it to the masses who didn’t have the balls. That’s the likely outcome. I’ve nibbled just a tiny bit. I have some balls but not brass balls.
I also prefer renewables. The kwh numbers are incredible these days and will decrease rapidly over the next five years. Been investing more in those…
crude from Alberta’s tar sands is going for $5 a barrel, CANADIAN
They replayed the Minnesota vs Penn State game last night. Had a virtual tailgate with our tailgating crew. Texts and pictures of drinks, eats, and Sandusky jokes. That was a great day last fall and it was fun to sort of relive it. Perhaps we should do an angrybeavs watch of a Beaver event?
better yet, BeeG, how about an epic Riley-led disaster at Nebraska; so much to choose from.
In college, I used to put off preparation for presentations and always figured I could get by just by winging it, mostly because I hated presentations. My teachers would bitch at me about reading my note cards and no eye contact.
This guy doesn’t even appear to read his transcript before he steps up to the podium.
Also, I love the moving of the goal posts, where now we’re saying if we keep the death toll between 100k and 200k nationally, we will have done a very good job, because it could have been as bad as…. 2.2M.
A few weeks ago we had 15 confirmed cases nationally and they were all going to go away in a matter of days.
Smells like victory!
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1244409785681883137?s=09
At least we have a few honest people and/or real leaders like Fauci, Coumo, even Bill Gates…
He claims it would be dangerous to claim victory before the war is won. You mean like you did, sir, when you said 15 cases would magically disappear? So much for his self-proclaimed, tremendous instincts.
Anyway, I’m sure we have nothing to worry about now that Jared Kushner is on the case.
show me the transcript, verbatim, when he said it would disappear. not the hope it would disappear, but the forecast it would disappear.
“And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.”
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-conference/
I’ll give him this. He never actually said zero. Just “close to zero”
It could be argued the total number of cases is relatively close to zero. It just wouldn’t be a good argument.
And this gem: “It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.” [when everyone dies]
He’s a full list of his stable genius’s quotes.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/13/21176535/trumps-worst-statements-coronavirus
Boy those didn’t age well. *Cringes*
thanks, NB. This is instructive. Trump fundamentalists read his statements like some Evangelicals read scripture. One of the best contemporary political observers is Salena Zito. read her stuff. As she pointed out, the problem a lot of the media have (as evidenced by the questions that come up in press conferences) is the tendency to take Trump literally, with no appreciation for nuance or context. Trump statements are like any other text; they have peculiar idiosyncrasies and overused tropes. One of his favorites is “bigger than anything you have ever seen before,” which, is, of course, not true. When he describes things thus, like the pre-virus economy as the best ever, is that a lie, or hyperbole? There’s a difference. Most of his problems are a function of his limited vocabulary. You have to learn how to read what he says. In this case, it was wishful thinking. His remarks today were, to be sure, deadly serious.
When has Trump ever said his problems are a function of his limited vocabulary, that we have to learn how to figure out what he actually means, etc? This is your interpretation of his flaws. My interpretation is that people generally mean what they say, and if they don’t, they apologize and explain what they actually meant, admit error, etc. I see none of that. Instead he doubles down and/or blames the media/others.
Why did you even bother asking for a verbatim quote if you were already going to say everything he says is made up bullshit and nobody should give it any credence?
(I already knew that, and I dont, so I’m safe there)
What is the social cue I should look for to let me know when he is being deadly serious vs spouting off meaningless bullshit?
We all need that filter
If the media criticizes what he says, that’s the cue he was spouting off meaningless bullshit.
Have you watched the Netflix series dirty money, the episode with Kushner shows what a pos that dude is.
Yeah he’s trash.
Isn’t he in charge of Corona? Sad state of affairs.
Yes, did he move ahead of Pence in the covid response hierarchy?
Did you see where supposedly Kushner was asking doctors, on facebook, for advice on what they would do to mitigate covid? Eghads, Facebook?
You’d think he’d at least solicit WebMD!
and middle east peace, opiod epidemic, criminal justice reform, diplomacy with mexico and china, liason to the muslim community and a few other things.
https://time.com/5766186/jared-kushner-interview/
Link for OJ’s facebook mention: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/13/jared-kushner-combat-coronavirus-facebook-127941
Edit: Angry we need to investigate WebMD’s liberal ties to the deep state.
Here’s the 2.2M claim. Says 2.2M dying wouldn’t have been acceptable.
Which makes it sounds like 100k to 200k is an acceptable number. Fucked up logic.
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1244400385269391363?s=09
How about taking it from the guy who’s running this instead of the doom and gloom.
https://mobile.twitter.com/CNNSotu/status/1244275909944885248?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet%C2%AD
That’s a lot of dead people compared to 15 cases that will miraculously go away…
Did you catch the context, and how the media is telling everyone 100-200 thousand will die. But that’s the high end a fuchi who is an authority on these things has never seen happen ever. It’s all doomer bullshit pumped by the media.
Sure people will die, it’s what happens in a pandemic. Absolutley nothing could have been done once the first person who was infected left Wuhan, short of a complete and total shutdown of this country. But if that happened trump would be a racist xenophobe. No matter what would have happened its trump’s fault according to the media. He cannot win.
He mentions models, high end and low end, and says the high end is usually wrong, low end wrong, and middle is usually right…then he says 100k to 200k deaths at the 1:00 mark, but he doesn’t want to be held to that. What’s the issue? He clearly says 100k to 200k deaths is his prediction, though he doesn’t want to be held to it because it’s a moving picture. So you’re upset the media is reporting exactly what he said?
100-200 are the high end is what he said.
No, he said 1 to 2 million is the high end model and certainly wrong. He says his projection is 100k to 200k. I mean it’s right there on the video. If you were criticizing the media for saying 1 to 2 million deaths then yeah you’d be right. But they’re referencing his figures verbatim.
Great, now I don’t know if Fauci is speaking a nuanced language where I should believe what he says, or just understand he’s making numbers up. He’s even talking about banging models now.
But in reality, he has the figure in the millions as his high end, unrealistic, worst case, never gonna happen scenario.
And in his more accurate projections, he is saying we’ll land around 100k bit less than 200k.
It’s what he said. Nobody is editing his words or twisting them around to say 100k is the doom and gloom number. He has said it on multiple occasions.
it was stupid of Trump to say that. I knew it wasn’t going to be true, and any sensible observer the same. It was his usual freelancing nonsense where he’s thinking out loud, or perhaps better, wishing out loud.
I didn’t have a reply button to use above, but I’d like to reply to NB and Angry re: the “filter” one needs to understand Trump. There’s really no mystery to this, once you see the pattern. The question you have to ask is: since he’s going to be president at least 7+ months how to cope with his pronouncements? Are we just going to complain or, to use our critical thinking skills that are the foundation for this site, work through stuff.
And then this: was the old political double speak, talking point nonsense that went for political dialogue for the last few decades any better, any less misleading? Sure, it was more polished, but was it any more accurate? As I said before, if everything was so great before, how does a guy with such limited abilities as Trump get elected in the first place? Seriously, someone answer that.
Are you talking about “read my lips, no new taxes” or “mission accomplished”?
Neither one seemed like bad humans,
And I do agree, Trump is a symptom of what was/is wrong and got him elected in the first place. I’m sure y’all are tired of hearing about Yang but it was one of the things he pointed to in his campaign, eg. we need to fix the things that got the current guy elected.
On the bright side, his daily press briefings get alot of viewers. Ratings in line with Monday Night Football and the Bachelor Finale.
That makes me feel better. Some tremendous numbers.
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1244399817960361985?s=09
So West Virginians must all own 4 TVs. Got it.
he was quoting the New York Times that the press conference got high ratings. Looks like you were watching.
Of course people are watching. It’s an unprecedented moment in time for the world where entire economies are shutting down. Yay for ratings!
so NB’s post is what I’m driving at. Trump can’t win. Tries to boost spirits by expressing hope that things might pass–blasted. Takes a more realistic tone–blasted. you Cassandras out there need to figure out what scenario you want and then YOU live with it.
Imagine if the head coach of your favorite football team took credit for every victory, but threw his players and assistant coaches under the bus after every loss. And the losses continued to pile up.
Like Gary Andersen.
Would you consider it a job well done?
Was it wrong to question Gary Andersen and be critical of his results?
how many times today did Trump praise Fauci, Birks, the Admirals, the corps of engineers? I didn’t see anyone thrown under the bus.
He didnt throw his inner circle under the bus, but he also accused hospitals of hoarding medical supplies (without evidence)and accused governors of increasing the number of supplies they need in an effort to make Trump look bad(without evidence)
I guess it doesn’t make sense that we can go from 15 total cases to over 100,000 total cases in a few weeks and the number of supplies requested increases too? He is the self proclaimed numbers guy, isn’t he?
He accused the media of misquoting him and purposefully cutting his quotes short to leave out context, but then as the reporter re-reads his quote, verbatim, he cuts the reporter off short. No sense of irony?
Everybody else fucks up, but he never does.
He really is Gary Andersen.
Wanna watch our for that. He likes to equivocate efforts of others as his own so if you criticise him you hate heros. He does it constantly with first responders, millitary, healthcare workers, teachers.
I’m glad he points to the people who deserve praise but I doubt his actual intentions.
He really is Gary Andersen…need to think of some kind of nickname.
I loved the Gary Andersen hire. I liked the Trump upset. Boy was I wrong! And people say I can’t admit it…
He just hired the wrong f*cking people
OJ that made me chortle, thank you haha
Well I don’t know about “big boy pants”, but he does have a big gut (always wears a coat to hide it) and wears ties that hang down to his dick — not sure any of that would work for a nickname.
NB I have come to the conclusion that if people are not horrified by that idiot by now they never will be. He can do anything and people will continue to say its all good and were just blah blah blah blah blah. All hes good at is making people dance to his tune but if you can’t hear the music its beyond sureal.
TDS used to be funny. Now it’s just sad and pathetic.
Imagine being outraged. All the time. Nitpicking every little thing one man says. Just looking for something to get upset about. Then go cry on social media and get your followers/sheep to agree with you. Telling you how right and smart you are.
It must really suck to be that angry all the time.
Get over yourselves. Get a hobby. Or a life.
Sounds a lot like Obama/Clinton syndrome.
So…what and how the most powerful person on earth says doesn’t matter and we should all just ignore it.
That sounds smart.
So having unjustified and irrational fears over everything orange bad man says is somehow smart?
What’s absolutely turrifying is you’re supposed to be an adult.
Turn off your television. Ignore the media. Get off of social media. Stop worrying about things out of your control. Be a leader instead of looking for someone to lead you. You’ll be happier and healthier.
Did you miss the part where the fuckstick in the red hat is supposed to be the leader of the free world and at the very least he is actually making decisions about what happens in our country?
So yes, we should be worried about him driving over the cliff if we’re all forced to be passengers.
Nuke: have you always accepted what Presidents have said at face value? C’mon man. I remember LBJ: “I’m not sending American boys to fight the war Vietnamese boys should be fighting.” Nixon: “I’m not a crook.” Ford: get a WIN button. Reagan: the problem is government! Clinton: I did not have sex with that woman! W: mission accomplished. Obama: you can keep your doctor.
Wanna: No my delusions of presidential honesty died with mission accomplished as a kid. I think you know that Trump’s allergy to truth and lack of clarity is unprecedented.
Orange Bad Man: I don’t watch TV so miss there I have one social media account and I just post dumb jokes but thanks for the advice. Yes staying informed is smart, founding fathers said it first. I don’t nitpick, he says some truly crazy shit and ignoring it is ridiculous. You do realize the president’s directs the activities of the government which creates the bounds of my existence. I’m not just going to happily watch as he does stuff that is antithetical to what I want in life. I am a leader and as a leader I worry about the people who look up to me. It’s the responsibility of a leader to protect everyone he leads, what exactly do you think being a leader is?
I’d like truth and leadership instead of a guy who is only concerned with the stock market for his own reelection.
Who would give us that?
Biden apparently, but hes to busy feeling up children and playing Monday morning QB.
Someone should ask him about the swine flu response from 09. I’d love to here how he and Obama waited to address the nation until 6 months after the first case here and 10,000 deaths from it.
Sanders is pretty busy being honest and raising money for healthcare. Guy has been saying the same stuff and backing it with action for longer than many people have been alive. People can hate his policy but his integrity is pretty legit.
Biden strongly defended segregation so he can just fuck off.
Edit: BB be careful with being overly bianary. Not liking Trump’s approach doesn’t mean someone is a lover of the opposite. You are a very smart guy that does research and are way better than that kind of basic arguement. That said it’s super tempting and I’m def guilty of it when riled up.
Biden is a safe pick who will appeal to moderates who are sick of the circus and to blacks due to Obama connection. He’ll be a lame duck anyway because (R) will control the Senate. Trump will be a lame duck, too, but he has the courts (ugh) and will abuse the shit out of the Constitution to gain more power (main reason everyone should be voting him out).
Biden can’t really be the pick from the Dems. I mean, I would love that. Trump will mop the floor with him. I just never take my opponent that lightly…that I would believe he makes it to election day. However, RCP has Biden up 10+ to Trump in the “polls”. Guess they didn’t learn anything in 2016. Save this post, if Biden is the candidate, prepare for Reagan vs. Mondale.
Angry, you mentioned above that you could provide a list of beaten-down stocks to possibly invest in. I’d be interested in that list.
And I’ve got a question about easing into positions. Do you really mean buying only a quarter of a share at a time, during down days? So, for a $40 stock, you only invest $10 at a time? Could take forever to get a position that could make money on the upswing that way. (If this sounds like a naive question, well, that’s an accurate reflection of the source.)
Also, what do you think about solar/wind energy stocks? I’ve been looking at ENPH and am kicking myself for not buying a week ago. On the other hand, it’s a stock you can’t turn your back on if you own it; very volatile.
Anyway, I’m impressed with your market opinions. Mostly goes over my head, but I love it when you talk that way.
Toilet paper futures are the way to go, investment wise.
Anything else is flushing your money down the drain, so to speak.
Hey buddy, I emailed you.
So I took a long bike ride today.
(a) The trails were packed. I feel like I got Corona just biking by all these zombies.
(b) Our city has like 200,000 people…there must have been 100 cars on the road all day. Concluded we’re going to have a depression not a recession, barring a vaccine or some other deus ex machina. Only question is how long. I’ve never seen anything like it.
a) sigh
b) Economists keep saying it depends on how much of the down turn is covid related and how much is economic. I don’t really understand the distinction.
I guess economic would be related to the business cycle, debt, etc., versus COVID just being the temporary demand shock. So what you think happens depends on how resilient you think the economy was before February.
Unfortunately, all the signs have been pointing to the former. Low savings and record debt for households and corporations. The only way we survived the GFC was the Fed’s printing press and money-printing has diminishing returns.
Good explanation of what I was struggling to put into words DE. This is a resilency test and I fear we have the resiliency of a Ford Pinto.
We won’t go into a depression. The president will be pressured into opening the economy. There were already calls for him to open the economy this past week. Those will only get louder and louder. Especially as we go into April and the market tanks even more. Unemployment will hit 20 to 30 percent. The Texas Lt gov said he’d be ok dying for the economy. More politicians, radio hosts and companies will join that cause. President will cave.
He could be bailed out a bit if he can get all the medical equipment needed produced by May and then keep it up the rest of the year. That way hospitals don’t get overwhelmed as much.
He extended the distancing til the end of April. I would assume that means no open economy.
He can open the economy. I still ain’t going anywhere.
Depends on whether opening the economy causes a COVID surge. If it does, everyone will be social distancing regardless of what the government says.
Of course it will cause a Covid surge. There is a line to draw, economic collapse or COVID suppression. Somebody will have to call it. I for one am happy it’s somebody with a business background not some rotten lifetime politician.
Lol riding a bike equals data proving of the coming depression.
No, zero cars on the road. Not riding a bike. Read the sentence.
So I just took a 20 minute walk.
Two cars on the road. Normal is about 30 in this area on a walk that long. Damn. It is dead out there. I guess the only thing that will prevent a depression is if all those people are buying a ton of shit online. That is possible. Depends how secure they feel in their jobs.
They are. Delivery services are bananas atm. Instacart, Uber eats and Amazon are busy.
You do realize that the entire country is basically on lockdown right? That would explain the lack of cars, citizens being responsible.
I expect to have a depression of 2-3 years at least. I went fishing a few weeks ago in eastern Oregon before the “lockdown”, staying in a hotel, was the only person to get a room, they probably had at least 40 rooms. The owner said everyone had canceled, and that I otherwise would not have been able to get a room that weekend. When I returned from dinner, there was one other car in the lot.
The recent bailout is only good for a few months, what then? The Government can’t keep spending that much money every quarter. People are going to be seriously hurting to pay bills. How many institutions will hold off on debt collection or debt forgiveness, and how long can they do it? How does that hotel owner survive something like this if it lasts for months or longer?
We don’t have a president we can trust to take us through this – he disdains science, has relied strategically on mis-information (propaganda) for too long, and has by design an unstable staff. Now we’re supposed to trust him and his administration? And we’re heading into an election whose results will be contested no matter what, and that will be a huge distraction and opportunity cost.
And then AFTER the virus issue diminishes in intensity, we’re stuck with massive debt for years, which diminishes the government’s ability to fund functions they otherwise might have funded.
I fear (a) cyber strike(s) on financial institutions or power grids in the near future. Hell, even moderately effective ones would push many people over the edge in the current environment, diminish confidence, and further hurt the economy.
If we have jobs, we need to appreciate it very much, hold on to them, and think about how we can not just remain civil, but help each other out.
I hope I’m wrong. Either way, there’s a lot to learn from this, including what things are valuable, and a genuine chance to pull together.
Just a minute – everything is going to be “beautiful” on June 1st!
“disdains science,” 4 hours after he went on national television, reversed his previous position by touting the authority of two medical scientists.
We all know what happens to flip-floppers.
Flip flops? I love my Reefs, although I hear OluKais are the bee’s knees.
I don’t see a 2-3 year depression. I see a bounce back in a few months, likely less. We have two monster trade deals and a new mandate from the Feds that a whole lot of medical pills and equipment will me made in the USA this point forward. Nobody here wants to talk about the numerous examples of Hydroxychloroquine working. Read the article about the VA care center in Lebanon. Only one death in an extremely high risk group and 24-48 hour improvement. Trump is cutting the red tape, watch a vaccine come out in record time (many months, but not two years).
He has deferred to the medical experts every press conference. He runs the show just like a great leader should even down to the smallest projects. Put together a crack team and manage them. Don’t be fooled by the upvotes, the Trump hate on this blog has driven most of the conservative beaver fans away, so you are becoming an echo chamber. Jack was at the forefront of this.
Get ready for Trump to lay down an ass whooping if Biden is the candidate. Then sit there and wonder where it went all wrong when the answer is right in front of you. (just like 2016)
Update on virus treatments.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/an-update-on-the-coronavirus-treatment-11585509827
It’s coming up behind a paywall off this site. I’ll see if I can find another source.
Can’t get it to work from around the paywall. Google it. Hydroxycloroquine treatment covid19.
Highlights include an additional 80 patients tested in france 93% had negative test after 8 days. New york is in the middle of the study but has no data yet.
Not exactly the same but the amount of papers is exploding. Heres the google scholar results for a simple search, you may enjoy reading a few.
https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=treatment+covid&hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C38&as_ylo=2020&as_yhi=
Thanks nuke, looks like I’ll be up late.
Search by high citation to save some time haha. Usually the results of cited papers are discussed and wrapped into newer papers.
Nuke, did you see this? The fda must have some info from the studies being done to just release it wide open like this.
https://mobile.twitter.com/MichaelCoudrey/status/1244457859191992320
Honestly I am not sure. The FDA has a history of placing political/greater good over science/proof. I think there is plenty of merit to the use of hydeoclorquine paired with other drugs.
The FDA can request advanced screening of results of any federally sponsored (paid for) research. So they could have gotten some good news or it could be politicians wanting something to be done.
I heard something on the radio on the way to work about a newly approved by the FDA test, takes 15 minutes. THAT would certainly help .
Specially for protecting first responders adn triage/ER workers. If they can get results back that quickly and do so on site it makes a big difference in how we do PPE and isolation.
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-03-29/abbott-labs-launches-5-minute-coronavirus-test
Uses the same Abbott equipment currently used for strep and flu so should be readily available.
Trump announced yesterday there is a five minute test developed by our amazing private sector. Where have you been?
Sorry, State, missed your post yesterday.
You guys see Trump suspended tariffs for three months?
I thought tariffs (translation: import tax) were great for Americans? Why would you suspend something great when we need greatness now more than ever?!!? Oh yeah, because tariffs fucking blow. It’s interesting how every policy is being exposed. Karma…
How does it help the US if we allow others to ship items here for free and they charge us to ship to them? I thought we hated china and their state sponsored undercutting of us products?
Tariffs really are not paid by the host country. They only protect your country is you have an industry that is being undercut.
Let’s say America has a big tire industry. If China starts selling tires in the US for 40% less it undercuts the industry and hurts us. So we apply a tariff of 40% so the price of the goods of the Chinese tires has to increase or their tire makers have to eat the tarrif. Problem is the US doesn’t produce all that many things at a competitive price point over the last 30 years so the industries have moved elsewhere or collapsed. If you apply a tarrif to a good that America doesn’t really produce then they just raise the price and the consumer gets hurt. We import more than we produce so tarrifs are not a good idea unless they are highly targeted.
Then why did he remove the tariffs? They destroy Americans because it’s a tax. That’s why.
The US consumer pays the tariff after the costs are passed on from the corp. This was just another way for Trump to collect revenue from us to give to his buddies. Tariff = tax. China isn’t paying the tax, man. They get no hit. We get the worst of both worlds: higher prices on imports, government getting bigger via the tariff tax, middle class paying it, China no ding (plus they were circumventing the ports by going through Australia first). If you want to get off China, you bring production back to the US, take the painful medicine of that transition, and then have a vibrant domestic economy that actually produces goods, self sufficient, and doesn’t have to rely on China. Trump is right we have to get off China. I never said he went about it correctly. Just another reason he disappointed me.
I agree with almost all of that. I think bringing production to the US is a pipe dream easily sold but impossible to achieve in large scale. We should focus on innovation and advanced production which matches our education and skillset as opposed to easily copied 100 year old industries.
For the old school industries we should focus on a diverse supply chain so one country can’t hold us over.the barrel and in times like these we don’t have to relie on them. There is cheap basic labor all over the world that will be happy to take some of China’s industrial burden to make a robust supply chain.
You make a persuasive argument, NB
Every president from Washington to Lincoln supported tariffs. There’s some pretty good presidential talent in that subset. Tariffs help DEVELOPING economies from the economic predation of stronger powers, principally Great Britain in the early history of this country.. Trump’s true insight, perhaps his only one, is that the out-migration of industry after the end of the Cold War and the imposition of WTO hegemony was that a big portion of this country had reverted to developing country status. What do you suppose the moniker RUST BELT suggests about a region? The conceit of Wall Street is that by the financialization of that out-migration we were as well off as before. We now know that was a delusion.
did he remove tariffs? he was asked that question over the weekend and denied doing so.
They have not been lifted as of this minute. Trump and Mnuchin have said multiple times over the last 4 weeks that they would not. ‘sources’ in the white house and/or treasury have said they would. My guess is that China will withhold supplies for some tariff relief.
ABs opinion is all based on the false assumption that no tarrifs benefits the consumer. Your socks and t shirts from China might be cheaper, but wage rates stagnate. Look at skill saw, traeger, and nike shoe pricing. If the libs really cared about the environment, they wouldn’t allow anything to be built in China because it is a communist shithole that doesn’t give a shit about workers or pollution.
Sunday Night Trump hysteria is not a good look for the site guys. We can do better.
Mr whiskey napkin please stop sending me continuous emails I have unsubscribed long ago. Found you here on google. Thank you for understanding.
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak
Isn’t it weird that the CDC, the WHO and now the New England Journal of medicine can’t agree on anything when talking about this virus. Yet it still DTJs fault for not knowing what all those smart dudes don’t even have a grasp on?
Japan put it correctly when they called it the Chinese Health Organization. WHO “no human to human spread of COVID 19”. Why would they say that if they did their homework at the source?
Stated in article
MOUNT VERNON, Wash. — With the coronavirus quickly spreading in Washington state in early March, leaders of the Skagit Valley Chorale debated whether to go ahead with weekly rehearsal.
Nearly three weeks later, 45 have been diagnosed with COVID-19 or ill with the symptoms, at least three have been hospitalized, and two are dead.
Linsey Marr, an environmental engineer at Virginia Tech and an expert on airborne transmission of viruses, said some people happen to be especially good at exhaling fine material, producing 1,000 times more than others.
If you tried gauging American politics by the squawking echo chamber known as Twitter, you’d be convinced Congress is 50% democrats, 50% communists, and Bernie Sanders is Supreme Leader.
Off to the gulag with you comrade!
ABC poll says 15% of Sanders voters will vote for Trump, not Biden.
“Some people just want to watch the world burn.”
Trump is the biggest socialist in history after these latest bailouts. Why are you calling Scotty comrade? Trump supporters are now the comrades. That’s the irony.
I’m practicing for the future. The terrible, terrible future.
But that future is the present. Trump is a Socialist.
It’ll be pronounced “patriot” here, not “comrade.”
I know trump is now a socialist.
Trump is a socialist in the same sense FDR was.
Stated in article
MOUNT VERNON, Wash. — With the coronavirus quickly spreading in Washington state in early March, leaders of the Skagit Valley Chorale debated whether to go ahead with weekly rehearsal.
Nearly three weeks later, 45 have been diagnosed with COVID-19 or ill with the symptoms, at least three have been hospitalized, and two are dead.
Linsey Marr, an environmental engineer at Virginia Tech and an expert on airborne transmission of viruses, said some people happen to be especially good at exhaling fine material, producing 1,000 times more than others.
Duh! I think 40x is being conservative given their density.
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-boris-johnsons-government-reportedly-furious-with-china-2020-3
I would think that with their incredibly poor air quality, many are compromised from the start when it comes to dealing with a respiratory health issue.
Yeah. But how stupid do you have to be to believe China? Did Boris Johnson actually think, at one point, that the numbers weren’t 40x? Lol…
Very stupid. Why would you trust a nation that relies on propaganda for control?
They’ve reported 1,000 new cases in the last 3 weeks. Lol. Come on!
I can’t believe people are eating that up. If ever there was a time for everyone to unite over “fake news” it’s that.
It’s awful dangerous to withold the truth. Without accurate data the rest of the world can have bad models and poor policy.
One positive that can come of this is the entire world bands together to ban China.
Yea… Like Fox News. Disgusting
Pettibone,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Brainwashing_of_My_Dad
Worth watching with the down time. Noam Chomsky’s lectures and writings of how there really is no Left media is also interesting. If you define Left as “for the people” it’s pretty much true. Even NPR and the likes are very sympathetic toward drops in stock prices, etc, despite the majority of people not owning any.
I’ve seen that. The bad news in the story was the effect watching and buying into the Fox propaganda had on her dad’s personality. He transformed from a sweet easy-going guy to angry and aggressive. Got to put Limbaugh’s followers in the same boat.
My late father in law did the same thing when he retired. Every time we saw him, we had to put up with the latest b.s. he heard that week listening to Rush.
Smash China. Buy USA. Not just USA, buy local. Somebody here mentioned local eggs. Find a local butcher, but the good stuff. Buy half a steer or pig local and get a freezer for times like this in the future. Go Beavs.
I mentioned Winn Farms in Corvallis for eggs, they also sell chicken, pork and turkey (at least during the holidays). Another local egg vendor in Corvallis area, that sell’s at the Co-op, is Green Oaks.
Also for pastured beef, available at the Co-op, for delivery, or through Gathering Together is communitycow.net. He also just joined with a local lamb producer in the valley. The lamb guy lost a ton of business in Portland so they’re working together.
Not to mention heavy smoking.
I work with (unbiased) people in China. The story from the streets of two major cities: public transportation is basically dead. There’s more traffic on the roads because no one wants to be in public. Restaurants are in business again, but only at about 20% capacity. The government announced last week that people didn’t need to wear masks anymore, but 99% of people are still wearing them. The average person doesn’t trust the government because they all know the numbers were a lie. There is growing concern about the reports of “foreigners bringing COVID back into the country.” In general, economic demand has been very slow to come back. Lots of people lost their jobs and even though the economy is “open” again, the majority are either hesitant to be in public, or unemployed now.
I would expect the “re-opening” of the US economy to look similar.
The Party’s gameplan has been ENTIRELY about narrative control. If they can announce “the threat is gone, we handled it internally,” then start blaming new cases on foreigners, it’s suddenly an “us aginst the world” story instead of “we dug our own grave.”
Yeah, exactly, sounds right.
Even if/when we open up in May, the likelihood of us going out to dinner or any other public event are near 0. Might be a year or two before we do that. We’re not fearful people so I imagine a lot of people will behave the same. We have been ordering a lot more things online, and doing social gatherings online via all those programs, so there’s that. I’m not sure how far that carries the economy. Today we spent $50 online at a local business. Hope it helps. We can’t support every one, though…definitely going to see some favorites go under, and that sucks.
Sounds like the game plan we will follow. Though fudging the numbers in the US will be tough, I imagine guidelines can be updated to weed the numbers down a bit but lung infection with a positive covid19 test will be near impossible not to report as a death caused by covid19 in the US.
Germany is being deceptive with their death numbers. Anyone who has an underlying and tests positive for Covid has a cause of death as the underlying condition. If they’re doing it, why won’t we? We seem motivated to get the numbers down more than anyone but China.
Crazy, I suppose we could go that route too. I think from federal, state and local governments there will be pressure to keep numbers low here. Bipartisanship at its finest! Working across the aisle to sell a pile of bull.
Germanys model is covering “died with virus and died from virus”. Its not completely deceptive. A gal in eugene (3rd death in oregon) died from a heart attack then was tested and had the virus. She is counted as a virus casualty but she wouldn’t in germany. She had no symptoms as far as what was being reported. I pointed this out in the first general thread, but I’m thinking anyone who dies and has the virus is being counted on the virus death list. No matter the situation. That doesn’t mean hundreds of people are getting in car accidents who have the virus and end up dying are counted.
Some recruiting news today. Wbb picks up a commitment from 5* guard Greta Kampschroeder.
Ranked 12th best prospect nationally by ESPN.
http://www.espn.com/high-school/girls-basketball/recruiting/player/_/id/231054
Some good news we can all agree on. AB needs a unifying moment. Thanks, Rueck.
She’s good friends with some of the other top targets for WBB too. Should bode well for a very good recruiting class.
Let us hope.
It’s nuts that OSU is now getting five stars from other parts of the country. When Rueck first started, they’d dig and find players in hidden parts of BC (Hamblin) and international players – now they’re beating the other top programs from recruits. It’s why I’ve never bought the argument you can’t get top recruits to Corvallis. The school has developed NFL, NBA, WNBA, MLB and even MLS players.
it’s amazing what you can do when you don’t use the lack of an airport for an excuse. Say, where is Lindsay these days?
Should have some interesting work coming up in the next few weeks, I’ll be working closely with alot of our organization’s national Covid19 utilization data for some ad-hoc analytics projects they need me to step in on. Will be interesting to see some actual, un-filtered data to get a gauge for how trends are changing week to week and to also see which types of utilization is being flagged specifically as Covid19 related.(diagnosis codes and procedure codes)
We have facilities throughout the country too, so it should give a pretty good cross regional view for comparison. Of course everything is considered PHI, so I have to be careful about which information I can even talk about publicly, but hopefully these weekly reports will help build a nice trend analysis over time so we can track when things start to calm down.
I’ll know more about the project later this week.
How many NDAs?
New wrestling coach was hired https://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/2020/03/oregon-state-hires-two-time-ncaa-champion-chris-pendleton-as-head-wrestling-coach.html.
Looks like a good hire.
Pivoting off Blackbandits mention above about car accident fatalities and counting of Covid19 fatalities.
I wonder if regular day to day fatalities will significantly decrease over the coming months, simply because more people are staying home vs heading out on the freeway every day?
Is it possible that even with an estimated death count of around 100k resulting from Covid19, will the country’s population actually experience a net gain simply due to people not being in as risky of activities on a daily basis?
Traffic fatalities annually end up at around 32k-37k each year in the US. I would expect to see an extreme dip in that total this year. Of course traffic fatalities are just one example. And we don’t know yet if our health systems when operating at or beyond capacity will allow more non Covid19 related fatalities to occur simply due to lack of resources to treat critically injured or ill patients.
What other areas could we see a significant change in mortality rates?
Sorry, I know it’s a morbid thought, but all data worth factoring when measuring the impact of this disease. On our country.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year
Not to hijack this but did you see what the Wuhan shutdown did to the pollution in that area. Everyone stopped working and the factories shut down, I think it was about a week and it cleared up.
I think this sort of impact would be a little different in the US where we have less of an industrial base. Fewer cars on the road will certainly make a difference, but chemical plants, for example, are still operating.
I’d still like to see the same info used here just for a comparison. Even though our shutdown is lower impact then theirs it would interesting just the difference in impact it has on pollution.
I saw an article about this the other day, but I’m not sure where. They also mentioned lower flu death rate due to social distancing.
Another question I have: are people being more or less active under quarantine? Will we see health benefits from increased exercise, or negative consequences of more sitting around and not going out?
The lower flu death rate Is good. Look at the amount of people who are testing negative for covid19 though. I think they are still only test symptomatic people, and the negative tests in oregon is over 10000 with close to 12000 tested. So something else is going around that has similar symptoms.
Also, as someone pointed out in a previous thread. will there be a spike in births about 9 moths from now? I’m guessing so.
Or divorces…
Or carpal tunnel surgery….
One thing to note anecdotally, with reduced traffic some people are driving like bats out of hell. I do about 5-8 miles over the speed limit and I’m getting passed by like I’m standing still. There will be fewer traffic fatalities, but some are going to be gruesome high-speed crashes.
I noticed that too. A lot of people have taken this shelter-in-place order to mean normal laws are put on hold.
PAC-12 extends spring sports delay to May 31.
Weird, I thought the NCAA had already cancelled the entire Spring sport season, which was why they were looking to grant an extra year of eligibility for Spring athletes?
Is this just a case of the Pac12 playing catch up with the rest of the country again?
Extension on prohibition of “team activities” work outs etc.
Big thanks to S.C. who made a recurring monthly donation today. All donations are great, but the monthly, recurring ones are especially nice because they’re reliable for budgeting. Even $1 per month helps on all fronts from the site to my time/effort. Thanks.
It was overdue.
Recent discussions made me realize I get more out of this site than just a virtual beav support group.
Party on.
Relevant to the “old people and their Fox News” thread above: I think something that gets overlooked is the fact that the retired population has way more incentive to support corporations and the financial complex because that is the source of their income. The Left likes to complain (and rightfully so) that printing endless money to prop up asset prices only helps a small percentage of Americans, but it’s not JUST “Evil Corporations” that benefit. Any retiree living off anything more than Social Security depends on asset prices staying elevated.
I think this is one of the reasons Trump focuses on the stock market so much. Boomers are the second largest voting bloc in terms of total population and they vote in larger numbers than any others. The market isn’t just a proxy (albeit poor) for how the economy is doing, it also represents income and quality of life for a large group of voters.
People in retirement should really not be in stocks very heavily. I am not a big fan of annuities but would seriously consider on as I age.
Quite true, but the most recent round of asset price inflation has blown a bubble in everything pretty indiscriminately. Cross-asset correlation has never been higher.
Getting kind of far from Lincoln.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/30/trump-republican-party-voting-reform-coronavirus
Bullshit headline. A republican will never win again if Democrats are allowed to continue using dead peoples votes, importing illegals in to vote for them, and ballot harvesting (filling out ballots for all registered Dems and stuffing them into ballot boxes).
Dems have always been the part of power and destruction
How many Democrats are on Mount Rushmore?
Which party had the most votes for Womens suffrage
Which party had the most votes for the civil rights act
Which party created the EPA, OSHA
Which party created our National Parks
There was no party switch.
Oh gawd!!! He’s back.
So the thing he said is bullshit?
Heres all the convictions for voter fraud. https://www.heritage.org/voterfraud/search . I tihnk you will find both parties have instances of cheating but neither has mass voter fruad that would actually affect a national election outside of some representative races.
Rushmoore has Washington (no party), Lincoln (Republican), Thomas Jefferson (founding Republican) and Ted Roosevelt (Republican). Thats cause Washington and Lincoln were a shoe in and Coolidge insisted on republicans for the other two. Its not like there was a quorum of historians that decided they were the best picks. I don’t really have any problem with them but your just celebrating mild corruption not actual awesome achievement.
The achievements of those presidents and the other achievements you listed are all really great but also have almost no reflection in todays party. Reagan, Bush, Bush 2 and Trump have all hurt the EPA, OSHA, National Parks, Civil Rights. They have all actively gone against womens reproductive rights but that doesn’t have much to do with womens sufferage.
Lincoln’s most famous speech is the Gettysburg address which ends with, “and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth”. Trump said, “The things they had in there were crazy. They had things, levels of voting that if you’d ever agreed to it, you’d never have a Republican elected in this country again.”
Kinda different concepts there.
Discussing which political party is represented on Mt. Rushmore is stupid for a host of reasons. But a main one being Democrats and Republicans were much different parties back then, even opposite of what they stand for now, if you research the facts on that.
Down with the Whigs! Democratic-Republican party forever!
Get off your high horse. It’s bullshit and you know it.
don’t forget Title IX for women’s sports or defense of Indian Treaty rights to counter the depredations of several states
Shoot, the dead people votes are stacking up in freezers in New York, sounds like it could be a landslide.
I thought that was funny to see Trump even in the same sentence as Washington and Lincoln. Probably a first.
Breaking news sounds””””””
Kendall Rogers
@KendallRogers
·
1h
Here’s the official release from the NCAA.
Everyone comes back for a year if they want to.
Schools will decide if you get money or not (seniors). And the baseball roster limit has been increased.
Quote Tweet
NCAA
@NCAA
· 1h
DI Council grants waiver to allow additional eligibility for spring sport athletes whose seasons were impacted by COVID-19: http://on.ncaa.com/2l3qv
that’s good news, but of far more import is the fact that MLB and the MLBPA have agreed to cut the amateur draft waaaaay back. like 5 rounds or such. This is MLB’s strategy to cut expenses. Take it out of the hide of the most needy, rather than the millionaires on MLB squads. That means, among other things, unless you are premium, no-miss pick, this year’s juniors will find a vastly shrunken market. That might mean, for example, that Kevin Abel comes back to Corvallis because, with his injury, it’s unlikely he’ll get drafted. sucks for Kevin, but could be great news for next year’s pitching staff. I’ll need to rely on you, BeeG, or maybe OOBie, but who are our best junior eligible players that are likely to roll into their senior year out of necessity?
Perhaps even of greater importance, the limited amateur draft will force most high school prospects into the college ranks.
My brother’s best friend’s cousin died of Corna tonight.
47, perfect health prior.
Awful. Sorry to hear that.
I didn’t know the guy, but I know my bro’s best friend pretty well. Thanks.
Just a reality check for everyone. Definitely not just the sick, elderly, preexisting people who can die. Now have on the ground proof, unfortunately. I know that can happen with the flu, too, so we don’t need to go there. Just a reality check for all.
His wife got it too, and she recovered. It does seem to be hitting men worse for whatever reason.
e.g.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/science/coronavirus-may-cause-damage-mens-21681342
Heres a fancy blog post on it. Male mortality is higher in every country thats publishing the data.
https://blogs.bmj.com/bmjgh/2020/03/24/sex-gender-and-covid-19-disaggregated-data-and-health-disparities/
6 people in my support group (about 800 members) now directly know someone who has died (grandparents and teachers).
Yeah, males get it worse, and it attacks our balls and lungs. I can’t imagine not being able to breath or use my balls. Might be staying inside for a few years. Lots of lawn work to do. Spent much of today thatching. That is a bitch to do manually…quite a work out.
Sorry to hear that.
Fyi there’s a study on now on the men/women death rates. Initial numbers show its ovarian related, women who have had theirs removed are dying at the same rate as men.
Couldn’t find the study but heres an ABC write up. Thanks BB
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/age-risk-severe-coronavirus-disease-69860317
I’ll dig around and see if I can find it, I’m pretty sure it’s out of the EU.
Something else to note: they sequestered him from his entire family, so he died completely alone. Family wasn’t allowed in/near him.
Yup thats the part that really fucks with the heart strings. We all die alone philosophically but its much worse to literally do so in a hospital. In places that have it together they are getting video conversations together for goodbyes but that can’t be much better.
Brings home the idea of making sure people you love know it every day.
Agree, it’s definitely a reality check. There’s still a certain level of risk for everybody, even if it isn’t high.
I’m sorry for his family. Their lives changed so quickly.
What do you guys think the down stream effects of the various methods for job loss will be? So far I have seen three methods in the developed countries.
1) Let job loss happen and subsidize with direct payments and unemployment.
2) Protect wages and jobs by making direct payments to affected companies for full wage or a percentage.
3) Paying companies directly for profit loss without wage protection requirements.
This IMF link has an exhaustive list of policies by country. My list above is just a summary of common policies.
https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/Policy-Responses-to-COVID-19
NCAA Grant’s waivers for spring athletes.
Eta:Beat like a mule by BG
Not sure how OSU is going to be able to pay for that. I can see OSU encouraging athletes to move on. But if I were an athlete, it could be a free year of grad school.
Aren’t more spring sport athletes on partial scholarships?
Angry, the sports comments are great, and are why I read the blog. However, you sound like a shill for CNN the way you’ve turned into a hateful Trump basher. Maybe you could tone it down some, it seems out of character for you, and people on this blog follow your lead and feel free to pile on. This virus thing is hard on all of us, Uber work has vanished, and my wife was laid off from her dental office. I’m reduced to DoorDashing with my 14 year old son to make ends meet. So yeah, it sucks, but damn, talk about soap, or maybe sports, anything but politics.
I’ve been fair to Trump. I do hate him. He’s put my families life at risk — they are Fox News watchers and Republicans…they believe what he says. He told them it was nothing and would disappear. So, fuck him. And for other reasons, like he’s a FED lover now when he rightfully blamed them for the pre ’16 problems, he’s become a Socialist after criticizing Socialism, and he’s built a more disgusting, nepotistic swamp with Kushner and Goldman assholes. He’s a lying piece of shit. I voted for him, but I realized my errors. I loved Gary Andersen. I realized my errors. I liked Tinkle. I’ve realized my errors. I’m human. I sometimes vote wrong. Oh well? I was reading a paper by Stanley Drunkenmiller, and he said the #1 reason he’s a great investor is he can change his opinion on a dime as new data and facts come in. So, while I liked Trump over Clinton in ’16, new facts and data have emerged. Now I can’t stand the guy. I hate to wish away time, but November can’t get here fast enough.
Anyway, the virus is the news now, and the virus has been politicized, so it’s going to happen here and everywhere else on the internet. If you don’t like it then take a break. Come back when things clear up.
Agree talking politics is stupid. Nobody is changing anyone’s mind. It’s the organic direction things have taken lately because it’s relevant and what else is there to discuss? People can start their own topics here in the comments and see if anyone wants to talk about it…
My favorite deranged Trump people. I voted for him so my hatred is more meaningful. No your site has good recruiting news is there not Reddit places like world politics to discuss how he has ruined the world? I am going to have to rejoin beaverblitz!
I am going to take the advise given and return back after the news has passed. This is a really great Beaver site I believe.
I never said it was more meaningful. All I said is I liked him at one point, and I changed my mind.
If anything I get the Trumpers. What I don’t get is how they haven’t changed their mind yet.
You don’t get Trumpers, or you would get why we haven’t changed our minds.
I’ll take your advice and take a break. I’ll be back when it’s about the Beavers again. I do enjoy the site in normal times.
I guess I should have clarified that I did understand the vote in ’16. I cast it. I got it.
Sure, I don’t understand it now that the guy has lied about every promise, other than to think there is manipulation on his part and radio personalities getting into peoples’ heads. But back in ’16 it made a lot of sense with the shaming and radical left telling people how to think, and how Trump was a backlash. Even the emails, stealing a Reagan slogan of “MAGA”, etc. That all made sense. Now it makes zero sense. Seems the biggest appeal now is perceived “winning” against Democratic voters. To me that’s not how you lead a Country, as voters. But dig in harder, guy. You do you, as the great Seth Collins once said. Or was it Seth the Great?
Oh, the irony of “stick to sports” coming to AB…
https://youtu.be/HbvYeLxMKN8
Talking politics is not stupid. Some of the best political discussion I find occurs here because it typically goes beyond the rhetoric, gets to depth on economics, statistics, with people willing to admit they are wrong, or what they’ve learned, or gasp, that they just don’t go party lines.
Keep it up.
I agree OC. The past few weeks have been this site’s finest hour EXCEPTING only the counter-narrative about Heimlich we were able to engender. I’m proud to have played a part in that.
Is ScriptDrop a thing in Corvallis? I have a relative who does those deliveries up in Olympia and business seems to be better than usual since people arent leaving the house but still need their meds delivered.
WHAT fucking sports should we be talking about right NOW?!?!? There is nothing on TV, no spring football practice, and baseball is cancelled. Let’s celebrate our new wrestling coach, and blue basketball recruit??? Have at it then. I don’t mind the politics. Didn’t vote for Hillary or Trump….we need real leaders in this country, way too much narcissism as it is.
I’m down with jockitch. Ha!
There are no sports and I’ve always considered AB to be a landing spot for lots of different discussions. Sort of a virtual pub, where everybody knows your name, so to speak.
It was the great discussions in the past couple of weeks that actually got me off my ass to make my donation recurring vs occasional.
Jack was Cliff Clavin, so that analogy works.
Rueck just signed 5*, 6′ Guard from suburb of Chicago, Greta Kampshroeder, rated 12th best prospect and 4th best guard in the class of 2021. She has some videos on YouTube that I reviewed and this young lady has a very technically sound perimeter shot with a quick release, can drive to the hole, has good passing skills too. She’s got Sabrina Egonescu type shooting range as well. I think she’s going to be one of the best shooters that Rueck has seen in his program as she really has a nice looking jumper.
Discussed above. AB unifying moment!
Profiles of Day 3 WB Prospects. Interesting that Luton is the first guy they write about.
https://www.rotoworld.com/article/nfl-draft-preview/closer-look-day-3-quarterback-prospects
That’s a humorous read because it’s an example (in my opinion) of over analysis and over use of “statistics.” Plus throw in the “strong armed qb” narrative. The conclusion is about right on:
“His lack of elusiveness, injury history and penchant for losing poise when rushed are concerns, but that’s why he’s graded as a Day 3 project and not a blue chip first rounder. He reminds me of a less experienced Landry Jones and is a worthy developmental flyer for teams that can afford to bring him along for a year or two before giving him a shot.”
And I didn’t dislike Luton. I was good with him being on the roster and always for acknowledging he’d never had coaching consistency in terms of scheme or mechanics. His last two years at OSU were the first time he’d had the same O-coordinator for two seasons in a row. Good luck, I hope he stays healthy. With the back injury he suffered, and the ridiculous size/speed of DTs, DEs at the next level, and blitzing LBs, I think he should move on from football and protect his back.
“penchant for losing poise”
Not sure how you ‘fix’ that.
These might work…
Poise Maximum Long Pads
1 Review Add Your Review
Poise Maximum Pads deliver added reassurance for persistent wetness, with greater absorbency than moderate or regular pads.
Has anyone else been drinking more? I noticed the lady and I have gone from once or twice on the weekends to three or so times now…usually at least one weekday. Not good. Anyone else? I feel with this Corona thing there’s a “let’s live!…because we might die!” …that is subconscious.
Almost lost all interest while I was sick the last couple of weeks. Occasional drink here or there, but much less than usual.
Trying to maintain my schedule and only drink Fridays and Saturdays.
My real question is – okay we’re all getting money, and we’re stuck living in a house – when do we get to start voting people out of the house?
Trying to maintain my schedule and only drink Fridays and Saturdays.
Me too, and failing. Need my discipline back!
When it’s end times it’s more fun to just say fuck it. I need to get out of that mindset. Else I’ll become Jack.
Forget about being Jack, just being angry is enough……….
I’m using it as a time to cleanse. I drink more usually cuz everyday is the weekend out here.
Three times a week? Amateur
Brewers report keg sales flat as a pancake but can sales are through the roof.
Which is fine by me since Ninkasi has a Brite full of a special run Whitaker #13 aka “Fuckin it up, Bud”. Got a crowler of it the other day and I’m bringing a Corney with me next time.
On topic, I’m drinking about the same as I ever did, more than some but less than others.
I’m playing way more guitar though. My 12 year old has jumped in with both feet and he’s starting to pick it up. 9 year old isn’t so sure yet.
Nice.
Bought my wife a guitar last year and she tried online lessons through you tube for awhile then quit. That’s ok. I have always wanted to try because it just seems to be something that would be mentally therapeutic in a crazy world. Especially now. Does anyone have a good suggestion for online lessons? I have no idea where to start beyond you tube. Someone you, Angry, or anyone would suggest. Thanks
Personally I saw learn a few easier songs first because it will be a bit more rewarding, then learn open cords and some G, E and C chord progressions along with different strum patterns, that should keep you busy for a while. Mix in some bar chords too.
It really depends on your goals and style.
Ean gave solid advice for most players. YouTube should have all you need for free. But if you expand on your goals and style I might be able to point you to specific guys on there.
Much thanks to you both! Lots to learn.
Definitely learn what you like first.
The beginning won’t be fun. Your fingers are going to have to get used to doing things that are foreign to them.
Once you power through that not so fun/this is work phase you’ll be able to concentrate more on the rhythm/timing/making it actually sound like a song part and that’s when it starts to get good.
Do you have an acoustic or an electric?
I’d also add practice everything VERY SLOWLY at first. Need to build muscle memory, and slow, deliberate movement is key.
Acoustic. And thanks for all of the advise. Going slow shouldn’t be a problem!
A more positive spin: I’ve actually been exercising a lot more. I was in decent shape before, but I realized I needed to do something to mitigate the background stress of everything going on outside our quarantine.
no, just one a day at cocktail hour, as before, but I’m getting a lot more done on my projects (even allowing for an extra hour a day debating with you all here on AB).
I haven’t drank in a while. I have been enjoying edibles on the weekends though.
Sunday it was I’ll have a couple beers, then realized I was 4 or five in…Block 15 better not go out of business.
guy…thanks for that donation, bud.
Sometimes I wake in the middle of the night, like tonight…just caught it. Big thanks. I don’t recognize the name. Email me and let me know your username.
since we’re getting confessional around here, I didn’t vote for President in 2016. I felt Hillary was a crook and Trump wasn’t acceptable. During primary season I voted for Bernie in 2016 and Tulsi Gabbard earlier this year. My only conceit in this debate is that I think I can explain Trump, what’s he’s trying to do once you get past the narcissism (which isn’t unique to him as a President, only more tangible) and why some people find him appealing. I challenged the readers up above (and only one reader has responded) so let me repose it here: if everything was so great before Trump how does a guy with his obvious limitations get elected in the first place? or, in the more immediate sense, if the US was uniquely unprepared because of Trump’s blandishments, how do you explain the problems countries in the EU or Canada are having with the outbreak?
There is more than a few thesis in how he got elected. Personally I think he’s good at making bianary choices where he frames it as being with him or being wrong. He has no problem lieing, exaggerating and making things up to make this division and create loyalty. For example the wall. Mexico had not paid but he did take money from the millitary and FEMA.
Can you elaborate on other countries problems? We have the highest reported infection count, highest daily infections, medical supply shortages and we will likely have the highest daily and highest total deaths count before long. Not sure where we look good compared to other countries.
If you look at per capita cases and deaths, most EU countries are still well ahead of us by 2x or more. Now, we have a lower population density, so this sort of makes sense, but I think there’s some immediacy bias at play in the feeling that we’re so much worse off than European countries. I do think we would have been worse off without the early China ban, but there was plenty more we could have done to prepare. Unfortunately, past instances where there was news of disease outbursts in China, but it never came to the West seems to have conditioned us all.
How much of that is just being earlier in the curve though? I think it’s safe to say places like Spain and Italy are atleast a week ahead of us just based in total infection/death. I know some countries will roll higher or lower on mortality but the US is at 2% of confirmed cases. Italy and Spain are closer to 10%.
Idk if per capital basis is a great way to measure this kind of thing. Is it acceptable to lose 100,000 people or 0.5%? To me 100k is really not good. Half a percent sounds small but that’s 1.65m people. I get the point but it’s hard to rationalize the potential for that much semi-preventable death.
Nuc- regarding the per capita basis….100K does sound scary. But isn’t that what the media does…broker in panic, fear and then profit off of sensationalism? I’d agree 100K does not look good yet that’s why some people have compared the death rate to the flu. Mostly because when the news starts talking about how many people will X…others want to put it into perspective of how “bad” it is or isn’t. And I’m not convinced we have the real story on Covid19 one way or the other to know how “BAD” it is.
Eugene. Woman has a heart attack, goes to hospital and dies. They tested her a couple days later and she had Covid 19. She was reported as the first Covid19 death in Lane County. So did she die of Covid19? Did she die of a Heart Attack? Did she have a heart attack because of Covid19? I don’t know but I do know she was reported as the first Covid19 death in lane county. The cynic in me says if someone died in a car wreck and they tested for Covid 19 they’d record that as a Covid19 death not auto accident. It’s these type of things that breed the critical questioning of what is being reported and what the truth is?
This is a interesting link. https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html
California has shown a decrease in weekly total deaths since January, could this be because less people are driving and therefore less driving deaths? Another interesting thing is the decline in Flu/Pneumonia deaths that seem to correlate to increase in Covid19 deaths. Others on this site have speculated that this virus may have been circulating long before the first reported case. We had multiple family members with a similar sickness in Dec and Jan. Went to dr and got a flu test. All were negative for the flu. What was it? We were told a unknown virus and told to go home and do self care etc. could it have been Covid19?
And in all of this we have family who would fall in the at risk category. So we’re taking this seriously. Yet at the same time the questions arise about the accuracy of the information and the decisions being based on those decisions. Or the justification for all the extraordinary measures.
I found this editorial interesting from two Standford Medical folks
https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464
I think you’re proving the point that, within a certain window of outcomes, it’s sort of silly to try to make a numerical argument for who did a better or worse job of prevention. That being the case, claiming that the Trump administration handled this thing so much worse than an alternative administration would have is pretty hollow.
Politicians are reviled all around the world. If you asked someone in another country about how their country has handled this, they would probably almost all tell you they were disappointed. This is certainly the case with the sample size I have of colleagues on five different continents.
Maybe once we’re done with this wave we can look back on it and try to put together the National COVID-19 Response Tournament Bracket.
All good points DE. I totally agree that it’s difficult to claim one country is doing well and another is doing poorly. It’s also very obvious that community transmission was prevelant before the US took the threat seriously at any level.
To me the biggest failure was lack of tests and lack of testing at ports of entry. We should have been testing at ports of entry in February but until the travel bans piled up there was pretty much nothing. If we were going to contain and case trace then we needed to stop any additional cases coming in.
Hopefully we learn stuff and pay attention to lessons learned. I don’t think many countries are doing a good job. Czech Republic seems to have success but not a lot of great jobs out there.
and yet, yesterday, when Trump said the US had conducted more tests than any other country, a reporter, checking her phone for a message someone back at the office sent her, asked if tests per capita were a better measurement of improvement on the testing front. There, of course, the American number wasn’t as good, thus the snarky redirection. Trust me on this folks, people in the middle, such as myself, see through this double standard journalism.
In terms of a travel ban, that’s fallacy. https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/the-facts-on-trumps-travel-restrictions/. Clearly it wasn’t effective on its own and/or too late. In terms of epidemiology, it was clear weeks ago, to many americans that given the absent/mild symptoms in a large subset of Covid infections, testing was key to containment. It SHOULD have been clear weeks before that to some influential national public health expert that testing was key and there should have been an action plan in place. America fell on its face there, feds AND public sector. The buck stops at the top. That MERS, SARS and Ebola never established in the US should NEVER condition public health experts or stifle their power to enact effective response.
concur. Trump should have imposed a travel ban sooner than he did, and it likely would be worse now if he had imposed it later than he did.
What no one in the media wants to focus on is that, as Trump wants to say with his limited skills of expression, the professionals charged with scoping the response, and that includes Fauci, dropped the ball back in mid to late January with their archaic system requiring all test data to be sent to Atlanta.
Let’s talk about teachers for a moment. I know several. They’ve been silently crossing their fingers that Summer break actually started a week before Spring break. Now, it’s sounding like they’re getting their wishes, as school(at least in Oregon) are prepared to have the remainder of the school year taught by parents at home. In many cases, we’re talking about households with working parents who don’t have the time or flexibility in their schedule to teach their kids from home simultaneously.
Yet when “school” started up again yesterday, teachers are nowhere to be found for instructions, lesson plans, etc. There have been a few people from the district who have reached out with web links, etc, but the response in general has been very underwhelming.
So is the plan for teachers to be allowed to continue to collect a full salary as if they worked a full year, but be let off the hook from actually doing much of anything until next September?
Even better are the teachers I see on facebook making snarky comments about how parents now get to find out how hard their jobs are. Give me a f*#$*g break. These guys complain more about their job than anybody I know, and they’re getting paid full time salaries to work 1/2 of the time most other people work this year(plus we’re doing you’re job now)
Is the plan to
I got mixed feelings. I don’t like the general tone of the teacher haters out there. The classic “those that can do, those that can’t teach” saying drives me crazy. And while pay varies wildly by district 60-80k a year with a pension, decent healthcare and summer break is solid. The thing that sucks though is they all get paid the same, the guy mailing it in teaching straight from the book and not working a minute over the contract hours makes the same as the teacher that spends extra hours coming up with creative lesson plans and trying to reach every student. But the complaining about pay grows a bit old, like you knew what you signed up for.
My parents were both teachers, so I’ve been hearing it pretty consistently most of my life.
Thing is, they’re retired, drawing from PERS and pulling in pretty good pay days. Definitely not hurting.
It’s probably me just being jealous of a career that only requires you to be on the clock September/October/(half of)November(half of)December/January/February and 1 week of March. That’s about 5 months of work and now they’re laughing a the parents who are working full time while also teaching their kids. Know your audience teachers.
Yeah, though tier 2 and 3 aren’t as generous as tier 1 it is still a guaranteed pension, rare these days. Some teachers are raking it in though. My old weight lifting teacher (literally chillest job ever) did the money match and gets close to 10k a month in retirement. I mean I don’t wish the guy ill will and think he deserves a decent retirement but one example of how out of whack the system is.
Yeah tier 1 PERS is an absolutely ridiculous golden parachute money pit. Looks like about $30 billion unfunded at the moment? With “more taxes” being their only plan for funding it.
Maybe Covid19 will reduce the tier 1 liability… I kid, I kid. Not sure what you can do besides more taxes though, seems like a lot of proposed solutions will just end up with costly litigation and eight back to where you were. Inflation could end up helping though.
This isn’t PC, but I’m sick of teachers demanding more salary. Like…you have 1/4 of the year off, and the job isn’t that hard other than dealing with whining kids. But isn’t that why you got into it? If you wanted a huge salary with no kids around go be an investment banker…
You pick a career knowing what it entails, then complain about every aspect of it? Maybe they need to go back to school themselves and start a career change.
Every year on the property tax vote there’s “increase property tax to pay teachers”…no. I don’t even have kids! How about they change jobs, and people who know what they’re getting into with the “difficulty of the job” and the salary take those jobs? That’s a better solution. Free market/capitalism!
I don’t think “you knew what you signed up for” really gets the point here for two reasons:
A) We have an economic system that basically forces the vast majority of adults to work out of necessity (thanks, inflation!). This means they have few options for what they can do with their kids, and teachers/schools are taking on more of the burden of raising kids. This is a multi-decade trend that’s well-documented. Schools are hiriing more non-teacher employees to staff these extra services, which takes away from what they can pay teachers.
B) Teachers have a very high-touch role in society. We should be valuing them more and valuing high performance in that role more. Free market principles tell us you can only attract the best talent into that profession with higher pay. Investment bankers have crappy jobs, too. Most work ridiculous hours and rarely get to see their families. But the smartest/highest achieving people are drawn to that industry because it pays so well.
I think one of the big problems is that compensation for teachers is structured to attract people that are just interested in a steady paycheck and a safe, conservative retirement. There’s no opportunity to stand out in your field and there’s not a way to be rewarded for it if you did. So we’ve created a system that doesn’t pay well AND attracts only the “play it safe” types within the subset of people who would work a job that doesn’t pay well.
Also, most teachers have to spend their “1/4 of the year off” working a part-time job to pay the bills or pursuing district-mandated continuing education on their own dime. Plus, most work 10-11 hour days during the week between the time spent at school and prep/grading/continuing education time.
There’s a good book on this topic called “Teachers Have it Easy.”
Relevant to a previous topic, this is part of how I departed from Libertarian thinking. We educate our kids at home (in addition to sending them to school, which they get little out of other than social interaction), and I strongly believe in parents’ roles in teaching their kids, both academic and non-academic subjects. But I also recognize most people don’t see things the same, and I’d rather live in a society where more kids got a quality education from someone, even if it isn’t their parents.
My girls teachers have been in constant contact with my kids. At least once a week they send emails or letters with small lesson plans or a link to some project to do. I was on the same line of thinking as you, until my wife reminded me it was spring break. Right after that the letters started. If fact in about an hour the teachers are going to do a driving parade to come wave at all the kids from their cars.
A driving parade to flaunt they aren’t working?
Some balls on those teachers.
Im sure they’ll be flipping the kids off as they pass by.
Update, there were about 50 teachers or so who did the parade. It was fun for the kids. No birds were flipped.
I agree that teachers have it really good. Oregon teachers are some of the highest paid in the nation. They use their union to extract more and more benefits often at the expense of the kids. Look at some of the European countries to see what excessive benefits do their economies. This is what happens when entitlements exceed reason.
To be fair the teachers I know personally complain about things like kids not listening (typically these kids parents don’t come to parent teacher night). Administrators not backing them up or understanding their needs. Tons of mandated BS that distracts from actual teaching. I don’t know any that bitch about pay.
I talked to my son’s 4th grade teacher on the phone yesterday and supposedly the middle school is going to call today. Looks like they’re putting together some from home school plans. They already use a digital platform that they access with Chromebooks at school, so they’ll be doing the same from home. This is South Lane school district and they’re pretty good, much better than 4J from my experience.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-31/hospitals-tell-doctors-they-ll-be-fired-if-they-talk-to-press
Welcome to Fascism. Never let a good crisis go to waste, right?
The firings have already started, allegedly
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/er-doctor-who-criticized-bellingham-hospitals-coronavirus-protections-has-been-fired/
Their company, their rules. How many companies do you know that allow workers to bad mouth the company they work for to the media? It’s a shitty thing to do I agree.
So speaking out about a lack of ppe and other necessities is badmouthing their company?
*edit
BTW I’ve seen many stories including Amazon employees, instacart employees, healthcare workers where employees are speaking up.
Its their rules, what do you want me to tell you? I’m union, if I bad mouthed my company I’d be out too. I’m not saying it’s a good thing or that I agree, I’m just saying it’s the rules that company has put in place. Either you follow them or you go somewhere else, I’m sure those doctors won’t be out of work for long anyway.
I get where you are coming from but the admin needs to listen to experts. At my wife’s hospital they arent allowing doctors to wear masks for non Covid19 patients. Some of the doctors want to wear masks all day because they are aware of asymptomatic spread and want to slow the rate if spread and prevent wide scale transmission to their coworkers. Management is afraid that if people are wearing masks in the halls that will scare patients. At a certain point the bean counters need to get the hell out of the way and let people do their jobs.
Actually I’m not clear that there ARE ‘rules’ about such things. Again, saying there is a lack of supplies isn’t badmouthing.
“Hey BB, how is the supply chain getting to you?
Well we’re short on some things.
You’re fired.”
??
BTW Peace sucks so I’m all for their workers moving on and they can try and go it alone with healthcare and poor management, and no healthcare workers. Good luck to them.
About wearing masks all day. The reason they don’t allow it in most cases is the chance of cross contamination. Say a doctor sees 15 patients in a day with the same mask on, say the first patient happens to have covid with no symptoms. They are breathing in the aerosols into that mask, then blowing it out with the remaining 14 patients. Maybe the chances are low of spreading that way, but there is a chance nonetheless. The WHO and CDC cant agree on how prevalent the spreading is as of right now, their not sure if the aerosols stay in the air for long or not. Nor do they know what is making spread the fastest, direct contact or aerosol. If you look back in early February the CDC was recommending people not wear masks because they didn’t know how to use them properly, now they are recommending them for people who are out in public.
I’ll say this, some hospitals are autoclaving masks in between patients.
The mask isn’t going to make much difference for the cross contamination. The doctors aren’t changing between patients so it will be all over clothes and everything else. At least the nurses though are either treating Covid19 or non Covid19 patients all shift.
I’m not sure speaking the truth (we lack gear) is “badmouthing”…that’s the issue.
Plus, we have whistle blower laws in place to protect people should a company be doing something wrong. These medical companies are private, but they get government money, so I’m not sure if those laws apply or not, or if an equivalent applies to private companies. But I’m not sure why you’d support hushing truth, either way.
I’m not supporting it. I’m saying that company has rules if you want to work there, follow them. Is it a surprise to you that hospitals are critically low on PPE? It’s been in the news cycle for 6 weeks, its hardly a whistle blower situation. What the companies are doing is trying to lessen the panicking and get people who may have symptoms actually come in and get tested rather then freaking them out to the fact they are low on supplies.
So now you have someone who may have a slight temperature and a scratchy throat (mild symptoms) who see reports non stop about PPE being low. They take that as the hospitals have no PPE and would rather take their chances at home or ignore their symptoms altogether. Then they go into public and infect more people.
If you have mild symptoms you SHOULD stay home. There is not enough testing at the moment for non critical people to get tested.
Yes and no, right this moment we are short on testing, by the end of the week we should be pumping those number up with the 5 minute tests being delivered. mind you they are still testing and producing the 45 minute and longer tests at the same time effectively doubling or tripling available tests and testing.
From the WSJ:” China’s Coronavirus Count Excluded Infected People With No Symptoms”
Shocking!
who’d have thunk that?
by the way, remember the previous thread of dialogue about the bending curve in Washington? the King County (Seattle) health department director admitted as much yesterday.
Washington seemed to do a good job locking it down, much better then New York, cali,and a few others so far. But they did have a head start.
I think Oregon is doing a good job. They’ve taken measures early enough to flatten the curve. Also helps population density is lower than most states. Only one large metro area. If they can keep Portland under control, the state shouldn’t get overwhelmed.
even Birx touted the Washington trend line today. Heck, that’s old news. I read it on AB last week!
The University of Washington closing down the first week of March, with hundreds of international students circulating around campus having just come back from Christmas vacation and the like, was THE key step.
Testing is key:
https://news.yahoo.com/seattle-lab-uncovered-washingtons-coronavirus-053628224.html
Bet widespread testing of symptomatic people around the country at the same time would have turned up a bunch more hotspots.
Btw: when do we get our covid “passports“ for positive antibodies?
Interesting article by Mamma Machado.
https://247sports.com/college/oregon-state/LongFormArticle/Oregon-State-football-top-recruits-who-never-made-it-145512551/
I mentioned yesterday the pollution reduction in China and how I’d like to see a comparison done here just to see what it would look like. Wish answered.
https://electrek.co/2020/03/30/coronavirus-clean-air-electric-cars-adoption/amp/
Although this guy apparently thinks batteries that run these electric vehicles just magically appear with zero environmental impact.
The Energizer Bunny brings em just like his older brother the Easter Bunny does Easter Eggs.
Another public figure, Chris Cuomo, saying he has tested positive after having mild initial symptoms, and is going into a stay at home quarantine now.
Another example of a person getting tested as positive, despite no need hospitalization. I feel like these types of cases are severely under-reported at this time since most who get tested are getting tested only after they present severe symptoms.
And again, the symptoms read very similar to what I(and my wife to a lesser extent) experienced a couple of Saturday’s ago. Pretty sure my kids also had the same, but they’re young enough that they wouldn’t know how to verbalize exactly what they were feeling. But I do remember one evening my daughter complaining about a weird sensation in her legs and she was shivering/trembling for about an hour, right around bed time just a few days after my initial symptoms.
The good news, none of us experienced much worse than this. The symptoms just progressed/changed day to day for about 2 weeks and mostly disappeared. Still coughing up stuff on occasion, but it hasn’t really affected my breathing at all. And yes, we’ve been home nearly 100% of the time since then, other than an occasional trip to get groceries or a solo walk for exercise in the neighborhood.
https://twitter.com/ChrisCuomo/status/1245011007711465478?s=09
My little kiddos just had diarrhea for a day or two and my wife and I had colds that lingered for 10 or so days.
Same boat here. Whole friend group got sick 8 days after one of.the husband’s had most of the symptoms. We’re 12 symptom free now so if it was covid it was early.
Family is starting to go nuts. We started isolation Feb 24th haha
All of you, call your docs and see if you can get tested to see if you had the virus. Could help medical people map treatments or a vaccine. Of course this only matters if you can’t catch the virus twice…
Already have. Antibody tests are not available. I’m in a call list
soon.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.axios.com/fda-coronavirus-two-minute-testing-kit-bodysphere-a665429d-488d-4edf-bd36-9180e2a06e4c.html
Any idea what the Manufacturing is like? Are we talking 100,000,000 a month or 100k?
I’ll have proof if my wife doesn’t catch the Rona at work, if I didn’t already have it I will eventually.
Unknown, just saw it earlier today thought I’d pass it along.
Thanks for the info. That’s gotta be one of the fastest antibody tests in the history of medicine. If you hear more please post!
Nuke: I’m hearing 30-45 days out for FDA approved antibody tests.
I love old people.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/31/oregon-veteran-95-beats-coronavirus-i-survived-guam-i-can-get-through-this-bulls-t/amp/
Birx is so much smarter than the press asking her questions that the gap is astonishing to behold.
is there anything more amusing that watching Birx try to explain to Jim Acosta what a confidence interval is?
Who is Birx?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deborah_Birx
Oh, that’s Deb. Didn’t realize she was a doctor.
I guess I’m not surprised a doctor may be a little brighter than the average reporter when it comes to talking about medical stuff?
Nothing against reporters. Just kindof what I would expect.
My wife’s knowledge of the law is way above my head, but she’s also an attorney.
who is Birx? You’re kidding right? She’s only the most influential decision maker in this country at the moment.
I’m joking. People are ribbing the bad orange man because he called upon “Dr. Fauci and Deb” to answer questions today.
Don’t worry, I didn’t actually watch it. Didn’t want to boost his ratings.
You know I don’t agree with quiet a few people on here politically. So what, I won’t argue with them.i avoid those posts like the (wait for it) plague. We all have a wealth of knowledge aquired through our lives and the sharing of that is way more important to me than politics. Obviously sports come 1st but we’re kinda in a pickle for sports right now.
listening to Fauci explain modeling to the press is like watching Einstein give a lecture to first graders. the media’s lack of cognitive capability is truly distressing.
Those who were pleased a month or so ago to learn that Mikayla Pivec was added to the list of candidates for the Senior CLASS Award may be interested to learn that the results are in.
The award, which claims to recognize excellence in the areas of: Classroom, Community, Character, and Competition, is said to be determined equally by three constituencies; fans, coaches, and media.
Despite garnering over 60% of all fans votes, Mikayla did not win the award. Her degree in Biohealth Sciences (3.93 gpa) and progress toward a Masters in BioChemistry and BioPhysics weren’t enough to move her ahead of the winner. Neither was the fact that she co-started the Beavs CARE program, did an honors thesis on efficient ways of getting access to resources for the homeless and, among other things, contributed some 257 hours to community service through Athletic Department sponsored events.
Did she lose out to the senior from Belmont who, while also working as a Registered Nurse, led the country in five statistical categories and garnered around 13% of the fans votes for the award? No.
The winner, a very very good player, received less than 5% of the fans votes. She graduated in General Social Sciences and is working on a “Master of Advertising and Brand Responsibility”. Her character and community service is highlighted by the fact that, “she takes time after games to sign autographs”. Seriously!
Oh, and the winner has the backing of Uncle Phil.