Read this article.

Some key points:

Since 2004, 18 FCS, Division II or high school head coaches have been hired as the head coach of an FBS program. At their previous stop, those coaches compiled a combined record of 744-347, with a winning percentage of .682.

Promising resumes, however, have not always yielded continued success at a higher plateau. At their first — and sometimes only — FBS head coaching stop, that combined record dipped to 225-375 (.375).

So how are some of these coaches so successful at the FCS level?

“We had a lot of FBS-type players on an FCS football field. That’s why we were able to do some of the things we were able to do”

They landed more  “men amongst boys” than the opponent and dominated.  This explains why when they get to the D1 level most collapse.

Regarding Baldwin, I wrote this in the last thread:

I get it, they were caught off guard.

But the coaching carousel is moving, recruits are anxious, and not a peep yet from OSU about where they are in the process?

Mamma Machado reporting she can’t get a peep from anyone and gag order in place. Typical OSU.

He knew his contract was an albatross.  One thing we know is the guy genuinely loved OSU (due to his father, him painting the stadium growing up, etc). Starting to think he realized the contract had become a burden, he still wanted to get paid a few more years, and there was no way for OSU to buy him out. Is it possible he consciously yet cryptically handed OSU a gift? I.e instead of saddling OSU with his buyout; he went to someplace he cares nothing about, and is having them pay it? Just an idea.

I’m sure a lot of the other stuff we speculated is true, but I think this maybe factored in.

Then again, maybe not. This from Eggers:

On Monday, before he left to recruit in California, Riley had a
meeting with De Carolis. One source said it was just the two of them. A
second source said President Ed Ray was also on hand.

“Something happened in that meeting,” the first OSU staffer says. “That’s when it changed.”

Athird source — who had not talked directly to Riley, but had spoken
with someone who had — says while De Carolis had no intention of firing
Riley, the athletic director pulled back on his support in some way. It
may have been that De Carolis wanted more control and influence on what
Riley felt should be his decisions. It may have been De Carolis wanted
Riley to give back some of the seven years left on his contract. It may
have been De Carolis didn’t want to extend the contracts of assistant
coaches beyond next year.

So Riley left for California with mixed emotions about his future at Oregon State.

{and then skipping a few quotes and such to get to the “time line” type stuff…}

Riley was to have headed to Hawaii for another recruiting trip on
Thursday. Instead, he returned to Corvallis Wednesday night. On Thursday
morning, he was no longer the Beavers’ coach.

1. Jack Del Rio — classic value trap. NFL success and a big name make him alluring, but you do not want to get involved with a father-son relationship when we don’t know if the son can play. Luke Del Rio has looked awful in limited time. With Jack there, he likely wins the job. We don’t want another incestuous relationship.

2. Brady Hoke — Basically the guy is Riley reincarnated. Look at his record and temperament. He just finished ruining a prestigious Michigan program. Also, would anyone be excited?

3. Ed Orgeron — 3-21 conference record. Horrible coach. I don’t care if he can recruit.

4. June Jones — this can’t even be serious…?

5. Dennis Erickson — ^ see above.

We need an exciting hire. This doesn’t necessarily mean a young guy. Bronco Mendenhall, for example, is older and would bring excitement. But these guys would not. Avoid. Avoid. Avoid. Avoid. Avoid.

If people don’t believe me, was I right on Riley? Yes I was. I would be right on these guys, too.  Very disappointed with some of the names gaining steam.

We’ve had this debate nearly a decade. Whether the coach or the town was holding the program from taking the next step.

Now we get the opportunity to find out. Of course, part of that relies on BDC hiring a coach we think is equal to, or greater than, Riley. If he hires a dud the comparison falls apart.

But let’s say he hires someone we like.

a. How long does the new coach get to beat Riley’s achievements? To me next year’s roster looks rough. If the new coach wins a few games, do the Pollys say “told you so” and Riley suddenly looks good?

b. What if Riley fails in Nebraska? Does this prove he’s bad? And failure for Nebraska is 9 or fewer wins.

c. What if the new coach lands 4-star recruits, but the Beavs level of success stays the same? Do we then conclude Riley was in fact coaching up the 3-stars? Maybe rating services are just very wrong (most agree they are flawed, if not outright inaccurate).

Very complex stuff, but we’re going to have to think how to fairly analyze this to know where the true problems lie. No matter what happens, I think taking the risk in this case is worth whatever outcome.