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General, Analytics, and What’s Up with Rueck?

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Last thread nearing 800 comments, y’all ready for a fresh one?

Talk Tinkle if you must, but lets kick this analytics stuff around too. Appears Mitch may have a different approach than Jonathan; the Bahns piece from the last thread indicates that Mitch uses analytics to get to know his players and to coach ’em up (even to coach up his staff). OTOH we have assumed Jonathan is focused primarily on in game decisions. As angry said prior to the Cal game, “The problem with analytics is they don’t specifically analyze your team.”  Has Mitch avoided that pitfall?

Here’s the link:
https://247sports.com/college/oregon-state/Article/Oregon-State-Beavers-baseball-2023-analytics-coach-efficiency-player-performance-203947860/

Notice, “New this year is the recording of every second of practice, from a multitude of angles, which Canham has used to both measure efficiency and evaluate the areas of the field that he can’t see in the moment.”

Think Mitch is a micromanager or just keeping up with the technology of the times?

Till angry shows up, go as general as you wish: NIL/The Portal and potential locker room problems, QB outlook, Baseball news. And, yeah, what’s up with WBB?

Grading Jonathan Smith (and General Thread)

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I don’t have a ton of time today, but I wanted to get out some ideas on how Smith has progressed, and see if people see this the way I do. I’m going to give some key areas and then grade them. We should probably do this every year to hold coaches accountable.

Recruiting: somewhere between a B to B+ (up from C+). I’ve always said you can win with legit 3-star talent, and Smith has been the best at getting high 3-star talent and even some legit 4-star talent. The level of athlete has improved each year. Failure to recruit a good kicker in 5 years is disturbing, and QB recruiting failures were a concern until very recently.

Preparation: B+ (stable). There’s nothing glaring here. His teams have always been well prepared, and that trend seems stable.

In game coaching: C (Up from D-). There were minor improvements here. This past season, there were times I thought he’d be a degenerate and go for it, but he punted. So that’s some progress. Overall still way too much miscalculated risk. I’m convinced he doesn’t understand statistics very well at all. Until coaches realize the “stat sheet” is an aggregate of all teams, many of which are better than yours who go for it more and skew that sheet, they’re going to continue to make these miscalculations.

Player Development: B+ (stable). Only a few guys in each class wind up not contributing, and that could be for their own reasons. But he seems to mostly put players where they should be, and finds a roll for all players. I said Martinez should have been the starting back from game 1 this past year, so I think he still doesn’t always have the right personnel on the field. Identifying the best player from day 1 is an area that needs improvement.

Staff hires and management: B+ (stable). Holds staff accountable. Hires good fits. Even willing to hire an unproven guy like Brey who had obvious talent yet no real experience. The Lingren hire keeps this from being an A for me. Lingren is okay, but he’s a weak link in many ways.

Character/Loyalty: A+ (stable). No character problems with Smith, his staff, or his players. Players seem loyal to him and the program and “buy in”…staff hasn’t left. All good signs that he’s doing things the right way.

Motivation: A+ (up from A). Seems a real strength that nobody talks about. Inspires his players. And it seems this is improving as players buy in and see results.

Let me know your grades below. Feel free to go off topic.

2023: The year of the Beaver? – General Thread

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Angry’s still out hosting the in-laws, but figured it would be a good time for a fresh thread.  Prior one was getting stale and starting to load slowly.

Making this a general thread, so talk about whatever.

In recruiting, the dead period for JUCO and Transfers is over and visits can start happening again.  Expect a few visitors this week that fit that description.

I’m expecting 1 known commitment to happen within the next week.  No spoilers, but fills an immediate need.

Is this coming season the year of the Beaver?(at least in football)

Seems like the football schedule and roster are shaping up to be our best shot to reach a NY6 bowl game in quite some time.

Non-Con vs UC Davis, San Diego State and @ San Jose.   We skip USC (and ASU).  Toughest games will likely be in the NW division with Oregon on the road and UW at home.  Hopefully a bye week will be favorable and land before one of those games.  Schedule is apparently delayed as the league tries to figure out a way to screw over the Beavs chances.  But will it matter?

I haven’t paid much attention to MBB or WBB.  WBB did recently top #10 UCLA, which is nice to see.  But both teams appear to be middle of the Pac this year.

Baseball is still several weeks away, so we’re hitting the dead period as far as I’m concerned.  Will try to keep bringing any football recruiting rumors/tidbits to this thread if I come across anything.

GoBeavs!

 

 

 

 

Ranking the 2023 Recruiting Class

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Okay, as always, my ratings work like this: I break it down by star rating, and then within that group, I’ll rank them in order. So the second listed 3 star is my second favorite 3 star. Etc.

When I began going through this class, I thought Smith might have taken a quantum leap because every guy seemed to be ranked one star too low, but that changed around the Saez/Taylor range, and the class began to fade. But it’s still a really nice top heavy group who are probably ranked too low by the services.

Give me your thoughts on these guys. Put it in writing. Also let me know where you think I went wrong and why.

*****

Aidan Chiles – Smith did a great job addressing the QB problems in this class. Chiles is ranked as a 4-star, but that’s only because he signed with Oregon State. He’s a legit 5-star talent. Why? Well amazingly quick decision making, correct decision making, very good to excellent arm, viable runner, and great accuracy. Chiles had an amazing 73.4% completion percentage in high school, and a 38 to 5 TD to INT ratio his senior year. I’m the guy obsessed with QB efficiency, so of course I’m going to rank him a 5-star with those numbers. The guy is flat out legit.

Kelze Howard – Again, why only a 4-star? The OSU down bump. USC, Michigan, Oregon et al offers. Even better, on film he’s a complete monster. He looks like Lawrence Taylor just completely destroying the backfield. Sure, they are highlights, but you can see on film he has intensity and thrives off making those negative plays. Even the way he lines up. He is fidgeting just waiting to get to the QB. Total monster. Great in the run game on film, too. Complete player. Should play next year barring any setbacks or problems learning the defense, but physically, he is ready.

****

DJU – I only have him as a 4-star due to his performance vs some of the better defenses he’s faced, and maybe the mental aspect of his game isn’t completely refined yet. I think he might be a bit underrated as a runner. Really good runner and cutting ability for his size. Top 5 arm nationally. The Beavers should be able to have their QB throw the long ball and run on any given play, which is obviously huge. One yellow flag was his taunting on film, but given his comments on how he reached out to the staff, it quelled some of that. Shows maturity to be thinking about his future and best fit for his pro career. For me he’s a very high 4-star and possible dark horse Heisman candidate next year given that Smith is going to make him become mature (if he’s not already), and that Smith’s going to design the offense around his skill set rather than try to force the issue like Clemson seemed to do.

Montrel Hatten – Why is Hatten at 3-star at the recruiting sites? He’s at worst a 4-star, and maybe a 5-star. This is a clear NFL caliber player. He can get open with ease and make every catch, good speed, love how he cradles the ball into his body using hands. Looks like a taller Branden Cooks and even looks a bit like Jerry Rice. Come on. 3-star!?

***

Leonard Ah You – Mission guy who we might never see, but boy does he look very good. Fast, aggressive, finishes plays. I just can’t get excited because this guy playing at OSU is a long way’s off, if ever.

Tastean Reddicks – Solid all around player. He seems to make the plays he should and nothing more. I’d say he doesn’t stand out as excelling at any one skill but also doesn’t stand out as having any flaws in his game. I question the 6’1 height…he doesn’t look or play that tall (unless all the DBs he’s facing are tall).

Isaiah Chisom – To me he’s in between a linebacker and safety, but that opens some options to get creative. Could be used as a hybrid player. I like him most as a hard hitting safety (who clearly excels at the delayed blitz on film) if Smith is willing to make that conversion.

Cooper Jenson – Hard to find good film on him, and I don’t know where Smith will play him. TE would be best, but in his film he looks pretty good as a RB, too. Maybe he’ll be used as a Christian McCaffrey type player from the TE slot? Could be unique. His diverse skills make creativity an option here.

Jermod McCoy – This guy is underrated. He’s intense as a WR and has ball skills, and as a DB he’s a ball hawk with great awareness. I think his best chance to see the field is as a DB. Promising player. I think he’s equal to the guy below, Zack Card. Similar players, and that’s a good thing.

Zack Card – I really like this guy. Not the flashiest recruit, but I see a guy with a lot of heart. Someone who will make the tough catch or tackle (depending where he ultimately lands) and fire up the team. He plays with a chip on his shoulder, and it somehow shows on film. I love guys like this. They eventually become team captains and great leaders. He’s fairly rated as a mid-upper 3-star, but guys who play intense like this are always better than the sum of their parts and could outperform. The same goes for McCoy. Card reminds me of a faster Wayne Chrebet.

Zakaih Saez – Underrated. Really nice looking pass rusher. Pushes the defender into the backfield and collapses the pocket while maintaining an obsessive focus on the target – the QB. Great foundation to build on, and by his Sophomore or Junior year he should be in the rotation.

Nikko Taylor – I don’t know Smith’s plans for Taylor. Sticking at DE? Call me crazy, but I think Taylor would make a better safety than edge rusher. He doesn’t finish some of his plays, and he doesn’t seem to show the fire or intensity you want to see out of pass rushers. Meanwhile, he has a great frame and body type to be a physical safety. I see only productive depth here if he sticks at DE, not a starter or a game changer. Not bad to have productive depth, though, so he’ll be a useful player.

Andre Piper-Jordan Jr. – Looks like a depth player. I’m not saying he looks bad, but I’m not seeing anything elite that stands out. He does appear to like playing physical, so that’s a plus. I like him more as a CB than WR. That physicality could be nice in the secondary. At this point I see a guy who will provide depth most of his career and maybe start or play more key roles as an upperclassman. Solid depth, though. There’s nothing bad in his game just nothing special.

David Wells – There’s really nothing wrong with his game. All around solid looking player with good hands. Should be a very good special teams player at worst, but possibly work into the WR rotation. A guy like this is tough. Nothing stands out either way other than his solid hands, so maybe put him on punt returns/ST and let him work his way up.

Jacob Anderson – Needs to get a bit lower on blocks and use leverage. Seems like a good frame but a project.

Thomas Collins – Really hard to analyze Swedish football, but his frame, intensity, and form all look good. But when I see him dominating the line, it looks like the opponents are really small (and terrible) for O-linemen. Low 3-star but there’s a lot of variance with this guy.

**

Abraham Johnson – Seems a step slow, but I think he’s my favorite of the two stars guys. Might be able to beef up and be a slow, run stuffing DT who is in the rotation for depth.

Zander Esty – Not a huge fan of this guy. I hope I’m wrong. But he looks slow, un-athletic, and plays upright. He does serve a lot of pancakes, so there’s that…maybe he can grow into something, but right now I see a practice squad player.

Harlem Howard – Again, not seeing much here other than a practice squad player. Looks small and slings guys to the ground rather than tackles them. Poor form. Not a great frame to build upon. My hunch is he has a Champ Flemings type trajectory and wins up at a smaller, lower level school eventually.

Grant Starck – I’m not sure what the staff sees here. I don’t see it. I hope I’m wrong. I don’t even think this is a good depth/backup pick. There has to be a better use of this scholarship. But, if anyone can turn this guy into a player it’s coach M. My only hope is on that.

Oregon State NLI Signing Day

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NiceBeaver said no surprises expected, but you never know. Let’s hope the momentum continues into the recruiting cycle, and we can pull something off.

Once we get the signings, I’ll do previews and give my rankings over the coming days.

Go Beavs!