Season Wrap Up
Just some quick thoughts as I’m heading out on freezing cold bike ride in a few, but I really want to focus on a few things here, mostly Smith and the QB situation.
Smith:
– He made progress. He punted a few times where I thought he’d be a lunatic and go for it. He did make some really poor calls on 4th down, but overall there was some progress. Hopefully he continues to figure out the math and realize that those stats are skewed by (a) good teams going for it more (b) entirely different sets of players than what you have and (c) entirely different game scenarios. Just because the probabilities of generic 4th and 1 are X, doesn’t mean the probability of your 4th and 1 are X. In fact, it’s not, and never will be, completely equal. So figuring out the true odds and having a good gut or feel for the game is important. He still sucks in this regard, but I saw small improvement. There are definitely 4th downs to go for, and I don’t want to him to lose the ability to see those, just to gain the ability to see the ones not to go for. He needs more refining still. Also needs to spot superior talent earlier in the year. I had Martinez and a few other guys pegged as the obvious best players, and it took Smith like 3 games to spot them all.
– Completely non-football related, but I think Smith needs to lose some weight. He’s clearly eating well after this contract increases, and I’m concerned about his long-term health and ability to remain on the sidelines unless he begins to watch his weight. Look at Smith when he started at OSU 5 years ago, and look at him today…not good.
– Ben Gulbranson. This is pasted from the prior thread: Something I’m seeing a lot in the thread and mentioned a lot on ESPN, is BG is 7-1 as a starter. Great. But it’s like baseball: sabermetrics, thankfully, has finally proven that a pitcher’s wins are worth nearly 0 (unless he pitches a shutout maybe). If people want to talk about BG in a positive light, look to his very good 62.2 career completion %, a respectable 9 to 5 TD to INT ratio, etc. Just like pitchers are now rightfully judged off k/9, b/9, era, etc, QBs have to be judged on the things in their control, not team stats. Wins are almost always team stats. They’re also arbitrary. What if Gebbia started yesterdays’ game as a token gesture, played 1 snap, and then BG replaced him? Gebbia would get the win as a starter. So we need to ditch that completely. What is important with BG is he played with the most confidence every yesterday after a long break, which makes me think over those weeks waiting for the bowl something clicked. This happens. E.g. many times I’ll practice guitar every day, and make little progress, but then put it down for a week, pick it up, and suddenly there’s a leap. It’s just the way brains work. They need down time to rewire. I’m thinking something like this happened with BG the way he played yesterday. Unfortunately we can’t test it until next season, but the positive is there’s a lot of both practice and down time between now and then for this to happen again and again. He could come back really good.
– Just want to comment briefly on the other coaches. Coach M, clearly a great job. Bray…I was a big fan of that hire and he was the guy I wanted to see get that job. That was mostly due to the game plan, player attitudes, the loose vibe, and aggressive yet calculated style that I saw in the few games he did as the interim DC. More specifically, I love the safety and corner blitzes. It’s a completely underutilized play in college football. Love that we finished more plays as the season went on. Just a great job by both line coaches.
– Back to the QB situation: is Chiles willing to red shirt and wait a few years if BG does continue his progression?
– As mentioned in the prior thread, I was the only media to call for a special season and 9-3 as the most likely outcome. I saw all this building over the past few years, and how they were so close in prior games. Just needed more seasoning and Smith to get out of the way a bit. Both happened. Yes, I’m patting myself on the back because nobody else does. People criticized me for the Riley stuff, but I wanted higher highs and new we could do it. Nobody came back to say I was right or apologize. So, I have to pat myself on the back. It’s fine, I’m flexible.
– We need a new Colletto. When Kord Shaw was drafted, I thought he had a really similar skill set and would eventually fill that roll. Let’s see. That’s my guess. Someone has to step up and do it. It’s an important roll that got us a few wins.
– I’d like to see Colletto come back and coach after his stint in the NFL ends. I’d like to see Gebbia on the sideline next year as a GA. My hunch is Smith loves him and will offer that. The fact Smith put him in the game yesterday demonstrates that. He was a great captain, great leader, and sucked up his badly dealt hand beautifully. Gebbia could even be groomed to one day take over for Smith. They have similar mindsets and career trajectories as QBs, outside of their recruiting rankings. But both undersized guys with big hearts, leadership, and bright football minds. In 15 years when Smith is ready to stop reliving his youth over and over (and that’s what he’s doing by coaching in Corvallis), Gebbia would be a good guy to look at, if he wants and pursues that career path.
Alright, off to ride. Feel free to discuss all of this and anything else.
Go Beavs!