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Baseball: Oregon State @ LSU

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A 2-1 pitcher's dual is nice and all, but let's be honest, yesterday's lack of offense cannot make us feel good about today's chances. Nice to see Tony Bryant pitch some quality ball. The guy is a master at changing speeds and hitting location. I think his troubles this year are overstated, and the stats the result of a few bad outings. I'd be giving him the ball in the 9th.

Hopefully Danny Hayes is back in the lineup today. They'll need his bat. LSU pitcher Kevin Gausman is a projected top 5 pick.

Regarding the rotation, Child will go today versus a heavy RH LSU lineup. Wetzler will go Sunday, but that's not a great matchup for OSU (I would have preferred Wetzler in Game 1 and either Fry or Child in game 2).

If you're jonesing for some pregame drama, check out this LSU forum where the ever-classy-toothless-cousin-fuckers "tiger bait" OSU players and then fans. I recommend playing Dueling Banjos while reading to help set the mood. Someone (Michael Conforto, is that really you?) mentions angrybeavs on there!

Baseball: Oregon State vs Belmont

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Game time: Friday at 12pm Pacific.

I've heard some rumblings that Belmont is a dangerous team. I'm simply not buying it. Full disclosure: I've never seen them play.

But the numbers just don't back up the claim that they're a threat. With an RPI of 63 and a SOS of 131, they probably shouldn't even be in the tournament, and definitely would not have made it in as an at-large. Belmont's pitching staff has put up good numbers, when you consider the RPI and SOS I just mentioned it's clear why. They have above average arms in a poor conference. Meanwhile, the Beavers have above average arms (and Fry is an elite arm) in a power conference, and they've only give up .40 more runs per game.Given that Belmont hits .266 as a team with a .378 slugging %… Advantage: Beavers.

Obviously baseball is a tricky game with bad bounces, bad umpires, etc. But assuming those things remain within the norm, I think the Beavs win this game 9 out of 10 times. The one worry is that the offense has been inconsistent, and they might press/struggle in a big spot. The weather (heat and humidity) could be a neutralizing factor, too. Still, I love the Beavs in this game.

Prediction: 8-2, Beavs.

What do Oregon State, Indiana, and Iowa State Have in Common?

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They're the only three major conference schools without a verbal commitment.

It's refreshing to see the sense of urgency on the recruiting trail.

/sarc

Baseball: Oregon @ Oregon State

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Something tells me more Beaver fans will be interested in this weekend's games. ;)

Projected match ups:

  • Friday: Wetzler (6-2, 3.30) vs Keudell (10-3, 1.80) 5:35 pm
  • Saturday: Fry (5-3, 2.47) vs. Reed (6-3, 3.06) 1:05 pm
  • Sunday: Child (6-3, 2.80) vs. Gold (8-3, 3.26) 1:05 pm

Saturday's game will be on Root.

The Ducks have won 9 straight, and their pitching has dominated during that stretch. Their team ERA is 2.89 (3.00 in Pac-12 play). That's about 3/4 of a run better than the Beavers. However, the Beavers score about a run more than the Ducks per game. Ducks have a stronger SOS, but since the Ducks resurrected baseball, the Beavers are 6-1 versus them at home. The adage says pitching beats hitting, so Oregon has a small advantage. I don't see either team sweeping, and I expect close games. Because the Beavers still have the better national reputation and the pride that comes with that, I think they'll play their best baseball this weekend and gut out 2 of 3.

Players Leaving the Program

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Rivals is confirming a rumor that's been floating around that "several" 3 deep players will be leaving the football program next week. Apparently nobody from the 2 deep, though that isn't confirmed. The reasons for the partings vary from mutual breakups to the coaches' leveling with these guys. A few might be academic casualties as well.

The good:

  • Riley finally acknowledges he lays ostrich sized eggs in recruiting.
  • This frees up scholarships for more talented players.

The bad:

  • The staff wasted time and effort–they should have recognized P-12 talent earlier.
  • The program and university invested resources (money, food, equipment, etc) with no return.
  • Roster just got younger and less experienced, which could provide excuses down the line.

I'm a big believer in trimming fat, but I'd like to see an official list of names before deciding. Some young guys on the three deep were solid prospects who I wouldn't want to see leave (e.g. Trosin, who I fear is one of them).