Beavs lost in Seattle 95-80. Beavs lost in Corvallis 75-72.

So, figure on a neutral court the Huskies should have a 9 point advantage or so. Not an exact science, obviously, but a starting point. It basically shows the Beavers will have to play a relatively flawless game to win. Confidence and other factors are at play. The Beavers were feeling great after dismantling Utah and Colorado, but the Cougars brought them back down to earth a little. Not sure they learned anything from today's game or were battle tested. They played apprehensive down the stretch and looked relieved (almost shocked) to have won it. The Beavs don't usually respond well when they're humbled.

If the Beavers dismantled the Cougs and were firing on all cylinders I'd love their chances versus Washington. That didn't happen, though. Now they have to wake up early tomorrow and face a well-rested #1 seed. I foresee a sluggish start that only gets worse. It really depends how much they want it. Today I saw a team get by on confidence, but they were humbled, and now that confidence is on fumes. It'll take leadership, determination, heart, etc. I haven't see these traits all year, and Washington isn't a team they can out-athlete.

Washington 79, Beavers 68

Late night here, so I might not be up before tipoff.

Strong feeling this game ends up something like Beavs 79, WSU 66. Gutsy call, but it's so strong I have to go with it.

Call me crazy, but I'm feeling pretty good about game 1 on Wednesday.

Not sure why other than a gut feeling, but here are some possible reasons:

• It's hard to beat a decent team three times in a row. Washington State would have to do that on a neutral court.
• OSU played solid man defense the past two games. Maybe a light's been turned on? You never know with these guys, but they showed promising intensity.
• At this point, Craig Robinson should have a plan to slow Brock Motum (I'd play man-to-man and put Collier on him).
• Beavs have their best shot at the NCAA tourney in some time. Should provide motivation and excitement in that locker room. A win or two probably gets them in the NIT, so there's that subplot, too.

The Beavs have gotten 9 of the 17 wins versus 200+ RPI teams. That's bad. They're 2-3 versus 100-200 RPI teams, 3-6 versus 51-100, and 2-3 versus 1-50. So, this is an average to bad squad. We know that. They're just playing their best ball right now (granted, against week opponents), so I'm thinking they have a good shot. It all boils down to defense. If they play intense man to man and give effort for the full 40 minutes, then they should win this game. After that, who knows–there's no clear favorite in this tournament. Anyone else feeling strangely confident?