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Grading the Offense

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Yesterday, I got some backlash for "over grading" the defense. What can I say, I think the defense is the strength of this year's team. I understand it's counter-intuitive given all the WRs and big-arm QB. I get it, but I just don't know if said WRs and QB will have time to connect. This offense has the potential to put up 40 points a game, and I'd write that they'd do just that had I seen the QB make strides this fall. Putting up big points requires converting 3rd downs and doing the little things to give the QB extra shots at making the big play. It doesn't require chucking the ball around the yard and hoping for the big play.

My grades below are a combination of what I've seen with my own eyes, and what I've gathered from camp. To be fair, the offensive line does sound improved, and they appear mentally refreshed as well (I don't think they liked blocking for Jacquizz Rodgers).

SPLIT END
Markus Wheaton
Obum Gwacham/Geno Munoz

Analysis: Wheaton is the best player on the team, and one of the best in the conference. Munoz is a player I admire. The guy has sure hands and runs good routes, but he never gets to play. That hasn't stopped him from working. Gwacham is raw material, a block of marble slowly being chiseled into something that looks like a work of art. Wheaton is the lone A+ on the Beav's roster, but the backups bring this particular unit down a hair.

Grade: B+

SLOT

Jordan Bishop
Kevin Cummings

Analysis: Bishop is inconsistent. You'll see him make a circus catch in the clutch (e.g. UNLV), but then drop an easy catch or break off a route. Cummings flies under the radar because he's not a dynamic WR, but his strength is in his steadiness. Look for Mitch Singler as a dark horse later in the year.

Grade: B

LEFT TACKLE

Mike Remmers
Grant Enger

Analysis: I believe this is Remmers 4th year starting (correct?). He should be an exclamation point, not a question mark. Enger will be great by next year, and he might even be better than Remmers. Enger's plight reminds me of Alex Linnenkohl's. Back to Remmers: there are fans out there who actually believe he is an NFL talent. This after 3 years of mediocrity. Am I missing something?

Grade: C-

LEFT GUARD

Josh Andrews
Michael Lamb

Analysis: I'm comfortable with Andrews starting, but Lamb is a weak backup.

Grade: C

CENTER

Grant Johnson
Geoff Garner

Analysis: Believe it or not, I've warmed up to Johnson at center. It's the position on the line that masks his weaknesses best. Garner is a quintessential backup. He can play any position on the line about as well as the starter.

Grade: C+

RIGHT GUARD
Burke Ellis
Michael Lamb

Analysis: The weakest position on the line. A bad walk-on backed up by a bad walk-on. This is a disaster.

Grade: D-

RIGHT TACKLE

Colin Kelly
Michael Philipp

Analysis: Philipp has come on of late, but it looks like Kelly will start. It's hard to find any good coverage of Kelly. All the writers just mention he's overtaken Philipp because of the latter's nagging knee injury. That's not a ringing endorsement of Kelly. What I've seen of him, on film, is a thin and gangly player with poor balance. But, that was several years ago. I really don't know what we have here. My gut tells me it's below average.

Grade: C- (upside potential)

TIGHT END
Colby Prince
Connor Hamlett

Analysis: Prince is just like Brady Camp. I was very down on Hamlett when he signed, but people are saying he's been one of the best players in camp. That is shocking. On film, he looked slower than whale shit. I'll be sold if I see production in games. Until then, I consider this combination weak.

Grade: C-

H-BACK

Joe Halahuni
Tyler Perry

Analysis: Halahuni is a B+, Perry is a B-, but both are injured. I assume Hamlett will play this position until they return.

Grade: N/A (B when healthy)

QUARTERBACK

Ryan Katz
Cody Vaz/Sean Mannion

Analysis: Katz is serviceable, but I was expecting massive growth this fall. He's still missing receivers consistently. Maybe he has a Matt Moore moment and things click by game 3. Huge upside potential, but didn't show progress in camp so I'm knocking him down a peg. Vaz is savvy and could be good, but he needs game time to build confidence. He plays with (overwhelming) nerves right now. Mannion came out of HS with a long, slow delivery, but word is he's more compact now. That's good news. All of these guys are about the same talent wise. The only thing separating Katz from the backups is game experience.

Grade: B (with tremendous upside potential)

TAILBACK

Malcolm Agnew
Ryan McCants/Terron Ward/Jordan Jenkins

Analysis: Top heavy position. As I wrote in the comment area yesterday, Agnew runs like a poor man's Marshall Faulk. McCants, Ward, and Jenkins aren't an answer, though all could find roles. McCants should get a look at short yardage and goal line, at least until he fumbles once. Ward is a prototypical scat back. Jenkins could be a Kevin McShane type player who carries the ball once per game to fire up the troops.

Grade: C

FLANKER
Brandin Cooks
James Rodgers

Analysis: Finally, a position well above mediocre! What can you say about Cooks and Rodgers? Not much, other than they're two fantastic players.

Grade: A

FULLBACK

Clayton York
Tyler Anderson

Analysis: Analyzing fullbacks. Now that sounds fun. "That Clayton York, he sure throws some evil blocks." I mean, sure. I like Anderson better because he could be an offensive weapon. He has a little Larry Centers in him. 

Grade: C

Honestly before I graded out each position I was high on the offense. It surprised me a bit to realize they're not as good as I thought. I think all the dynamic WRs skew perception. This team will probably score 30+ vs Sac State, but then struggle to find points the next two games. At some point it will click ala '06, it's just a matter of when that happens.

Grading the Defense

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Below are my grades for the defense. My methodology is simple: consider the starter and backup and then give the unit a score. Given the number of injuries the Beavers have had this season, I feel grading only the starters would be an inaccurate measure of the defense. Also, even without injuries, the Beavs want to get back to substitutions so the guys behind the starters will play.

LEFT END
Taylor Henry
Rudolf Fifita/Dylan Wynn

Analysis: Henry is a 3rd down specialist, plain and simple. He's below average versus the run. Fifita is…well…nobody knows. If you like Fifita, raise the grade. To me he's a wildcard, and considering his offer sheet and how late he signed it's hard for me to be optimistic. If Wynn jumps to #2 on the final depth chart, upgrade this unit to a B. He has maximum upside potential and could end the season as the starter.

Grade: C- (B if Wynn makes a move)

LEFT DEFENSIVE TACKLE

Castro Masaniai
Ben Motter

Analysis: Masaniai does one thing exceptionally well: he takes up space. The Beavs desperately need it since Frahm and Glover are undersized for their position. Still, the depth here is weak, and the starter is a serviceable player, but one with limitations. Mana Tuivailala is a wildcard. I'd think he'd see action before Ben Motter, but right now Riley has Motter as the two. 

Grade: C

RIGHT DEFENSIVE TACKLE

Andrew Seumalo/Kevin Frahm
Dominic Glover

Analysis: Patchwork of an ex-defensive end and a former walk-on/coach's son. Only at OSU, right? This is probably the weakest position on the entire defense. The loss of Fred Thompson was huge…when we look back on it next year, we'll probably recognize it was a season changing injury. Those are the breaks. Once Frahm returns, upgrade this unit to a C.

Grade: D+

RIGHT END

Scott Crichton
Rusty Fernando

Analysis: Crichton will be a force. Fernando is a serviceable backup, though probably more of a third down specialist. Overall the combo is a good one.

Grade: B+

SAM LINEBACKER
Cameron Collins
Rueben Robinson

Analysis: Potential NFL talent in Cameron Collins, and then a drop off to a Pac-12 tweener in Robinson makes this group "top heavy".
Jabral Johnson is a wildcard, but all signs point to a red-shirt.

Grade: B+


MIDDLE LINEBACKER

Feti Unga
Tony Wilson

Analysis: Unga came on strong at the halfway point last season. Many people didn't notice, but some of us did. He's had a heck of a fall camp. Tony Wilson is at full speed and has also had a great camp. If one of these guys gets hurt there should be no drop in production. MLB was a glaring weakness last season. Not this year.

Grade: B


WILL LINEBACKER

Michael Doctor
D.J. Welch/Shiloah Te’o

Analysis: Will is probably the deepest LB position. Any of these three could start and do well. In my opinion, Welch is the most talented of the group, but Doctor is more refined at this point. Te'o is a tad small, but plays like you'd expect from a (former) Cougar. My two concerns with Doctor are his size and coverage skills. I've seen him have trouble bringing down and covering running backs. The depth here makes this the strongest LB corp.

Grade: A-

LEFT CORNERBACK

Jordan Poyer
Keynan Parker

Analysis: Again, a top heavy position. Poyer will be an all-conference player, but Parker hasn't developed at all. So, we have an A corner and a C corner, making the two-deep their average.

Grade: B

SAFETY

Anthony Watkins
Ryan Murphy

Analysis: Tremendous combo. Watkins is flat out solid, and Murphy is an up and coming ball hawk.

Grade: A-


SAFETY

Lance Mitchell
Tyrequek Zimmerman

Analysis: Interesting that we have two former WRs at this position. Similar players, too. Zimmerman is promising but unproven, and Mitchell has nagging abdominal issues. I have a minor concerns (i.e. health), but the talent is top notch.

Grade: B+

RIGHT CORNERBACK

Rashaad Reynolds
Sean Martin

Analysis: Rashaad Reynolds is an upgrade over Brandin Hardin. Hardin was solid in run support and brought a lot of experience, but his flexing, posturing, and flat out blown coverages were old. Reynolds has better coverage skills. We'll probably be frustrated with him as he gets burned and grows into the position, but by week 6 we'll have completely forgotten about Brandin Hardin.

Grade: B-

Overall, I expect the defense to be much improved over last season. My overall grade, at least for the starters, would be a B+. Depth knocks that down a bit, but barring injuries they'll be good.

Fall Camp Week 3 (Part2/weekend)

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The last post was getting crowded. Let's use this one for the weekend. Next week, around Tuesday, I'll draft coverage of the first game.

Some points of discussion:

Oregon and Cal up to no good. We all knew this already, so it's funny to see the media late to the party. SBB has more clout than angrybeavs, though, so now bigger outlets might run with it and investigate (what we've been saying for years!).

http://www.sportsbybrooks.com/ducks-cal-troubling-ties-to-mentor-of-recruits-29826

Also, depth chart update.

http://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/index.ssf/2011/08/oregon_state_football_latest_d.html

What jumps out to me is how thin the left CB position is. Jordan Poyer is probably the one defender the Beavs can't lose. Also, Andrew Seumalo listed as a starting DT. I mentioned last week this might happen. The depth at those two positions borders on terrifying.

One more note: I am trying to incorporate a function that will allow users to search comments rather than just the main posts. Look for that improvement soon.

Fall Camp (week 3)

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In order to feel optimistic about the season, I need to start seeing our best players/starters getting reps. I understand we can beat Sacramento State with our reserves, but we can't beat Wisconsin with rusty starters. Sac State is an important tune-up game. We don't want guys taking the field for their first time this season at Camp Randall.

The injury bug is leading to a mindset, in both the media and fan forums, that the real season begins September 24th against UCLA. I understand why people are thinking this way, but it is disheartening to see people adjusting expectations before the season even starts.

Anyway, there's not a lot to complain about right now. Some things irking me:

  • Sean Mannion's move up the depth chart. (Not a Mannion fan, sorry).
  • Reuben Robinson being talked up. (It only exacerbates the problem).
  • Media only highlights players' (e.g. Gwachum) positives and ignores their negatives (e.g. drops).
  • Sac St. game still isn't on TV.
  • Andrew Seumalo listed as a possible starting DT.
  • Darrell Catchings is still in the picture.
  • Sean Martin at nickle (he is too slow, groom someone better).
  • Our never-ending bad luck (injuries), and Oregon's omnipresent good fortune (LSU incident).

Injuries & Ryan Katz’s Progress

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I don't know about you guys, but the injuries are really starting to get on my nerves. I understand they are "part of the game", but they're not supposed to be the entire game, and that's the point we're at with the Beavers.

Injured starters:

  • Brandin Cooks
  • Kevin Frahm
  • Cam Collins
  • James Rodgers
  • Michael Philipp
  • Joe Halahuni
  • Castro Masaniai
  • Brandon Hardin

Injured reserves:

  • Storm Woods
  • Cody Vaz
  • Shaydon Akuna
  • Jordan Jenkins

Out for the season:

  • Brandon Hardin
  • Fred Thompson
  • Micah Hatfield

So, almost half of our starters are injured. That's just ridiculous. Any theories on this? It seems beyond random since it's happened for several years and to a greater degree than any other Pac-12 program.

Also, regarding Ryan Katz…I am reading the same reports as last season. He's inconsistent, he's overthrowing receivers, he can't throw on the run, he's busy showing off his arm, etc. In short, he's still acting like Dirk Diggler. Can we just get a heady QB who converts third downs and knows how to check down? ARGH. Stupidity is so frustrating.

-End rant