I’m sticking with my 38-27 prediction, even with Ward and Robinson starting. I should probably add 3 for Robinson and subtract 10 for Ward (i.e. 41-17), but eh…I feel like they’re both symbolic starts who will be replaced by the second series.

Plus, it’s October, Riley wakes from his slumber. If it were September 30th I’d predict the blowout. Beavs are a weird team, too, in that when you completely expect them to fail and the “fire Riley!” chants to ensue they come up with a win to stave off that negative momentum.

All of this makes me want to get crazy and predict a win, but then I realize the Sun Devils are just flat out better, so I’ll take the safe route and call for a closer than expected loss.

When you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose. –Bob Dylan

An argument for Oregon State sound something like this:

• They can only go up from here.
• They've beaten ASU three times in a row.
• They'll be playing loose with nothing to lose.
• Beavs play best when nothing is expected of them.
• They're hungry for a win.
• Beavs get healthier this week.

That's a lot of secondary, circumstantial reasons to like the Beavers. As much as I'd like to ignore them and instead rely on individual matchups (that clearly favor ASU), it is hard to do so entirely. There is an element of truth that a loose team with everything to gain is dangerous. It's not abnormal for a young team to (subconsciously) destroy all expectations before pleasantly surprising.

I also think that given all the criticism around the program, it might be best for them to get out of Corvallis and deal with unfamiliar boos rather than familiar negativity and criticism. What I am saying, and this is counter-intuitive, is that I believe the Beavers are better off on the road this weekend. Their home town fans might be more of a drag on morale than opponents' fans.

For these reasons, I like the Beavers to keep this game fairly close. I can't in good faith predict a victory, but I think the game will be near even at the half. Some of that will be due to the Beavs playing well, and some will be due to the Sun Devils handing out yardage via personal fouls. Arizona State will use speed, break some big runs, and pull away around the midpoint in the third quarter, ultimately winning by 11. Beavs play well for the first half but can't sustain it. Fans feel disappointed in the loss, but apathy makes defeat easier to swallow. Coaches and players focus on the positives. Riley talks about growth and finding an identity in post-game interviews.

38-27, Sun Devils

Didn't the (85) scholarship limit begin in 1995? And didn't Oregon State's administration begin putting a concerted effort into a much neglected football program around that same time?

If all this is correct, it means Pettibone was reaping recruiting rewards, via the rule change, from 1995-1997. This is significant since it was right before Riley took over. In other words, with more dispersed recruits, Riley would have inherited better talent than past coaches. And those players would be juniors unless they red-shirted. So, they were filled out and ready to go. Riley won 3 games with them; Pettibone won 2 games the year prior. The next year, Riley won 5 games.

The Beavers didn't snap the 28 year losing streak until Erickson took over.

For some reason, Beaver fans want to credit Riley with Erickson's success. Most think Riley broke the streak. Most barely acknowledge Erickson went 31-17 and took the Beavers to their lone BCS game. And when they do, there is always the "yeah, but did it with Riley's recruits" quantifier (which isn't even true).

Also, by that logic, when Riley returned shouldn't he have been able to take the Beavers to a BCS game? I mean, if all that is needed is Riley's recruits then a BCS games should be an annual event.

Maybe I am wrong. I didn't follow Beaver football closely until 2003. Some of you guys go back to the 40's. Maybe you'll ream me out for this post, but digging through the record book, I see facts that point to Erickson being the better coach. The guy has two National Championships and 7 BCS games on his resume. Riley has 0 and 0. But, Oregon State fans believe Riley is the better coach. Erickson just road Riley's coattails. It's hard to imagine if the story were reverse and Erickson was the coach and Riley had left, that Beaver fans wouldn't be praising Erickson and dissing Riley. 

I'm not anti-Riley or pro-Riley. He is what he is. An average coach with a laid back attitude. He's not a perfectionist so he doesn't pay attention to detail. That's it. He'll never take OSU to a BCS game, or likely even an Alamo Bowl.

I don't think today is the day to fire Riley. He should be given until mid-season to assume play calling, and he should be given the off-season to fire coordinators. It's also important that big donors and fans alike see just how average he is, because they need to become better educated fans so we can avoid this problem with future coaches. For the old, dying guard, this is a learning experience in objectivity and reality. These problems began long ago. I think it's important to understand the recruiting/rule changes, NCAA dynamics, OSU admins, etc all played a role in transforming the program. It wasn't a Riley thing. I'm sick of hearing the uneducated/under-analyzed argument (recently made by Ted Miller) that OSU's renaissance was due to Riley. He was a small part. I'm convinced any average coach could have done the same. The fact that Erickson, a far superior coach, did better with Riley's recruits only strengthens that argument. It's why I don't fear taking a risk on a new coach.

Anyway, these two guys will be on display this weekend. I have a feeling I'm going to enjoy watching Erickson's squad more than Riley's.

Thanks for biting your tongue and not bombarding the petition with random, off-topic comments. Feel free to let it all out now.

Some thoughts I've been having:

• It's difficult to remain interested in NCAA football. (Specifically the Beavers (duh)).
• Feel like the Beavers are Microsoft, and the Ducks are Apple. Maybe not completely accurate since Microsoft had a good run. Beavs are Linux, Ducks are Apple? That's probably more accurate.
• Every time I try to be positive and think about improved recruiting, etc, it's tempered by this qualifier: the same staff will be coaching them.
• Mike Riley had a really bad press conference. He basically blamed Sean Mannion. He also looked completely befuddled and shot. He should retire.
• People keep mentioning Riley as the next AD. Do we really want his mindset at the top?
• ASU has looked damn good this year. 0-4 is a given.
• It's hard to look at the schedule and find a win, but you know the Beavers will improve as the season progresses and someone will overlook them. I'm now thinking 2 to 3 wins. Adjusted down from 7 (what the hell was I thinking???).
• I watched a lot of college football this weekend, and it just seems like everyone else makes the game look effortless. Beavs, even when they were "good", always looked on their heels and different than other teams. Something is just off.
• Cliff Kirkpatrick is blowing Riley. That's the only explanation for his delusion.
• Beaver fans aren't afraid to lose Riley; they're afraid we'll get a worse coach. I don't fear that. Should I? Can't the new coach be fired if he sucks? Isn't a shot at greatness worth the risk?

That's about it. If I can muster up a care in the world I'll do a writeup for the ASU game later in the week. Other hobbies are sounding better, though.

We, __________ (the undersigned), believe Danny Langsdorf must be relieved of his duties (as offensive coordinator) in order for the Oregon State Football program to move forward.

Further, we believe Mark Banker should be fired. Banker teaches corner backs to play off the line of scrimmage, and encourages them to face guard and play the man rather than turn their heads to play the ball when it's in the air. This has directly lead to dozens of pass interference calls that resulted in Beaver losses. Additionally, Mark Banker does not understand how to defend spread offenses.

Finally, we believe you, Bob Decarolis, made a grave error by essentially giving Mike Riley a lifetime contract. We do not believe any coach should be locked into long contracts where complacency is allowed to set in. Thus, this petition will be sent to President Ray so he can review your performance relative to our complaints.

Each signee will have the opportunity to expound upon this petition (in the comment area below) and explain what he or she plans to do if changes are not made. I ask that you read their words carefully. Personally, I will not be donating any monies to any Beaver related cause until change is enacted, and I will continue to encourage others to do the same.

Sincerely,

Angry (and the undersigned)