Like the 2010 season, the 2011 season begins with two Beaver staples: hope and unknowns. Injuries have become the new norm as well. There are plenty of reasons to be pessimistic, some reasons to be optimistic, and as always, all the reasons in the world to be realistic.

I'm not going to lie to you and say, "Things are never as bad as they seem. The truth lies somewhere in between." Try telling that to Washington State. Things can definitely be as bad, and worse, than they seem.

The problem I'm having with the overly pessimistic viewpoint (e.g. Ted Miller) is that it favors known quantities, even if they aren't good players, over potential or the unknown. What I am saying is that Ted Miller feels that having a senior Keith Pankey is better than a sophomore Michael Doctor, for the lone reason that the latter is "unknown".

Legendary basketball John Calipari had this to say about talent vs. experience:

If the choice is talent or experience, I’m taking talent. Then you can blame me for us not winning. But I’m taking talent.

When I look at the roster, I see players who have improved since last season, or I see addition via attrition. The lone exceptions being Center (Alex Linnenkohl > Grant Johnson), DT (Stephen Paea), and RB (Jacquizz Rodgers). I also see many of the players I was calling for last season now in the lineup. How can I not love that?!

The offensive line? All a year "better". Let's be honest, they should at least be average at this point.

The secondary? All a year better.

The linebackers? A huge upgrade.

The QB? He should be better…at some point.

etc etc.

Okay, so there's a downgrade at defensive tackle. Every D1 program is weak at DT. The guys who line up should be serviceable. The only obvious drop off is Paea to Castro. The rest of the guys are either the same (Henry/Wynn, Frahm) or better (Crighton > Miller). Heck, Frahm and Henry are a year older and thus should be a year better. That makes 3/4 of the line improved. Again, I don't see the reason for pessimism here.

And I'll give you that there's an unknown at RB. I'm not scared because the heir looks legit. Would people be worried if Yve Bernard were the RB? No. Well, Angew is better than Bernard. He is faster, hits the hole quickly, and can break longer runs. The offensive line is his limiting factor, and as mentioned they should improve from bad to at least average. Plus, they like blocking for this guy (translation: major chemistry issues with Quizz).

So, in my mind, last year's team was much worse, and they could have easily won 7 games if they had any heart or team chemistry. Speaking of the latter, chemistry is much higher this year. That falls into "intangibles", a category that shouldn't be overlooked.

Some people have brought up the fact that Quizz never fumbled, and therefore we're in for more turnovers this season. That is probably true. But these same people fail to mention the improved LBs and secondary, so the Beavers should get more turnovers, too. You can't acknowledge only one side of that coin. If the defense portended to be crap, I'd echo the turnover concerns.

Personally, I see potential weaknesses being rushing defense (no Paea) and the offense taking 3 or 4 games to "click"…specifically, Ryan Katz. That guy needs to convert 3rd downs and generally just be more efficient. His inefficiency was a killer last season, and it doesn't sound like he's improved in camp. So, those are my two concerns.

Now, as far as a prediction…I think last year's team had a horrible defense and yet they could have easily won 7 games versus the most difficult schedule in the nation. This year's team is better, so 7 wins seems like a logical assumption with a variance of 4, or +/-2. In other words, the lower limit is 5-7 and the upper is 9-3. My feeling is 7-4 into the final week, and then a 4th straight Civil War defeat. My prediction comes with an assumption that key starters will be healthy by game 3. Now, let's hear your guesses.

KICKER
Trevor Romaine
Max Johnson

Analysis: Romaine sounds like Kahut only with a stronger leg. If he can harness accuracy and consistency, OSU will have the second coming of Alex Serna. This guy is the biggest question mark on special teams. He has to deliver, and there's no contingency plan. Max Johnson is atrocious. He isn't even a legit D1 option, so he'll only see the field if Tony Soprano breaks Romaine's kneecaps.

Grade: C- (with upside potential)

PUNTER
Johnny Hekker
Keith Kostol

Analysis: Year four of the Johnny Hekker experiment. Apparently Mike Riley isn't a big scientific method guy, because this hypothesis was proven wrong 3 years ago. Nonetheless, here we stand with arguably the worst punter in the Pac-12. Only Arizona, at 39.2 had a worst punting average last season. Kostol doesn't seem like a solution, either.

Grade: D

HOLDER
Johnny Hekker
Keith Kostol

Analysis: If there's one thing Hekker does well, it's holding. No issues here.

Grade: B+

SNAPPER
Marcus Perry
Michael Morovick

Analysis: Marcus Perry is the man. He's had a flawless career, and his scholarship was well earned. Since long snappers are rarely injured, I'm not going to dock this unit due to a green backup. Besides, Morovick sounds like an adequate replacement.

Grade: A+

PUNT/KICK RETURNERS
Markus Wheaton
Jordan Poyer

Analysis: The Beavers have at least five guys who would be great on punt returns. They're absolutely stacked. Wheaton, Poyer, and James Rodgers are the best. The kick returning position grades out the same. Add names like Ward, Reynolds, and Parker to that list. The Beavs are loaded with dynamic options.

Grade: A+

Yesterday, I got some backlash for "over grading" the defense. What can I say, I think the defense is the strength of this year's team. I understand it's counter-intuitive given all the WRs and big-arm QB. I get it, but I just don't know if said WRs and QB will have time to connect. This offense has the potential to put up 40 points a game, and I'd write that they'd do just that had I seen the QB make strides this fall. Putting up big points requires converting 3rd downs and doing the little things to give the QB extra shots at making the big play. It doesn't require chucking the ball around the yard and hoping for the big play.

My grades below are a combination of what I've seen with my own eyes, and what I've gathered from camp. To be fair, the offensive line does sound improved, and they appear mentally refreshed as well (I don't think they liked blocking for Jacquizz Rodgers).

SPLIT END
Markus Wheaton
Obum Gwacham/Geno Munoz

Analysis: Wheaton is the best player on the team, and one of the best in the conference. Munoz is a player I admire. The guy has sure hands and runs good routes, but he never gets to play. That hasn't stopped him from working. Gwacham is raw material, a block of marble slowly being chiseled into something that looks like a work of art. Wheaton is the lone A+ on the Beav's roster, but the backups bring this particular unit down a hair.

Grade: B+

SLOT
Jordan Bishop
Kevin Cummings

Analysis: Bishop is inconsistent. You'll see him make a circus catch in the clutch (e.g. UNLV), but then drop an easy catch or break off a route. Cummings flies under the radar because he's not a dynamic WR, but his strength is in his steadiness. Look for Mitch Singler as a dark horse later in the year.

Grade: B

LEFT TACKLE
Mike Remmers
Grant Enger

Analysis: I believe this is Remmers 4th year starting (correct?). He should be an exclamation point, not a question mark. Enger will be great by next year, and he might even be better than Remmers. Enger's plight reminds me of Alex Linnenkohl's. Back to Remmers: there are fans out there who actually believe he is an NFL talent. This after 3 years of mediocrity. Am I missing something?

Grade: C-

LEFT GUARD
Josh Andrews
Michael Lamb

Analysis: I'm comfortable with Andrews starting, but Lamb is a weak backup.

Grade: C

CENTER
Grant Johnson
Geoff Garner

Analysis: Believe it or not, I've warmed up to Johnson at center. It's the position on the line that masks his weaknesses best. Garner is a quintessential backup. He can play any position on the line about as well as the starter.

Grade: C+

RIGHT GUARD
Burke Ellis
Michael Lamb

Analysis: The weakest position on the line. A bad walk-on backed up by a bad walk-on. This is a disaster.

Grade: D-

RIGHT TACKLE
Colin Kelly
Michael Philipp

Analysis: Philipp has come on of late, but it looks like Kelly will start. It's hard to find any good coverage of Kelly. All the writers just mention he's overtaken Philipp because of the latter's nagging knee injury. That's not a ringing endorsement of Kelly. What I've seen of him, on film, is a thin and gangly player with poor balance. But, that was several years ago. I really don't know what we have here. My gut tells me it's below average.

Grade: C- (upside potential)

TIGHT END
Colby Prince
Connor Hamlett

Analysis: Prince is just like Brady Camp. I was very down on Hamlett when he signed, but people are saying he's been one of the best players in camp. That is shocking. On film, he looked slower than whale shit. I'll be sold if I see production in games. Until then, I consider this combination weak.

Grade: C-

H-BACK
Joe Halahuni
Tyler Perry

Analysis: Halahuni is a B+, Perry is a B-, but both are injured. I assume Hamlett will play this position until they return.

Grade: N/A (B when healthy)

QUARTERBACK
Ryan Katz
Cody Vaz/Sean Mannion

Analysis: Katz is serviceable, but I was expecting massive growth this fall. He's still missing receivers consistently. Maybe he has a Matt Moore moment and things click by game 3. Huge upside potential, but didn't show progress in camp so I'm knocking him down a peg. Vaz is savvy and could be good, but he needs game time to build confidence. He plays with (overwhelming) nerves right now. Mannion came out of HS with a long, slow delivery, but word is he's more compact now. That's good news. All of these guys are about the same talent wise. The only thing separating Katz from the backups is game experience.

Grade: B (with tremendous upside potential)

TAILBACK
Malcolm Agnew
Ryan McCants/Terron Ward/Jordan Jenkins

Analysis: Top heavy position. As I wrote in the comment area yesterday, Agnew runs like a poor man's Marshall Faulk. McCants, Ward, and Jenkins aren't an answer, though all could find roles. McCants should get a look at short yardage and goal line, at least until he fumbles once. Ward is a prototypical scat back. Jenkins could be a Kevin McShane type player who carries the ball once per game to fire up the troops.

Grade: C

FLANKER
Brandin Cooks
James Rodgers

Analysis: Finally, a position well above mediocre! What can you say about Cooks and Rodgers? Not much, other than they're two fantastic players.

Grade: A

FULLBACK
Clayton York
Tyler Anderson

Analysis: Analyzing fullbacks. Now that sounds fun. "That Clayton York, he sure throws some evil blocks." I mean, sure. I like Anderson better because he could be an offensive weapon. He has a little Larry Centers in him. 

Grade: C

Honestly before I graded out each position I was high on the offense. It surprised me a bit to realize they're not as good as I thought. I think all the dynamic WRs skew perception. This team will probably score 30+ vs Sac State, but then struggle to find points the next two games. At some point it will click ala '06, it's just a matter of when that happens.

Below are my grades for the defense. My methodology is simple: consider the starter and backup and then give the unit a score. Given the number of injuries the Beavers have had this season, I feel grading only the starters would be an inaccurate measure of the defense. Also, even without injuries, the Beavs want to get back to substitutions so the guys behind the starters will play.

LEFT END
Taylor Henry
Rudolf Fifita/Dylan Wynn

Analysis: Henry is a 3rd down specialist, plain and simple. He's below average versus the run. Fifita is…well…nobody knows. If you like Fifita, raise the grade. To me he's a wildcard, and considering his offer sheet and how late he signed it's hard for me to be optimistic. If Wynn jumps to #2 on the final depth chart, upgrade this unit to a B. He has maximum upside potential and could end the season as the starter.

Grade: C- (B if Wynn makes a move)

LEFT DEFENSIVE TACKLE
Castro Masaniai
Ben Motter

Analysis: Masaniai does one thing exceptionally well: he takes up space. The Beavs desperately need it since Frahm and Glover are undersized for their position. Still, the depth here is weak, and the starter is a serviceable player, but one with limitations. Mana Tuivailala is a wildcard. I'd think he'd see action before Ben Motter, but right now Riley has Motter as the two. 

Grade: C

RIGHT DEFENSIVE TACKLE
Andrew Seumalo/Kevin Frahm
Dominic Glover

Analysis: Patchwork of an ex-defensive end and a former walk-on/coach's son. Only at OSU, right? This is probably the weakest position on the entire defense. The loss of Fred Thompson was huge…when we look back on it next year, we'll probably recognize it was a season changing injury. Those are the breaks. Once Frahm returns, upgrade this unit to a C.

Grade: D+

RIGHT END
Scott Crichton
Rusty Fernando

Analysis: Crichton will be a force. Fernando is a serviceable backup, though probably more of a third down specialist. Overall the combo is a good one.

Grade: B+

SAM LINEBACKER
Cameron Collins
Rueben Robinson

Analysis: Potential NFL talent in Cameron Collins, and then a drop off to a Pac-12 tweener in Robinson makes this group "top heavy".
Jabral Johnson is a wildcard, but all signs point to a red-shirt.

Grade: B+

MIDDLE LINEBACKER
Feti Unga
Tony Wilson

Analysis: Unga came on strong at the halfway point last season. Many people didn't notice, but some of us did. He's had a heck of a fall camp. Tony Wilson is at full speed and has also had a great camp. If one of these guys gets hurt there should be no drop in production. MLB was a glaring weakness last season. Not this year.

Grade: B

WILL LINEBACKER
Michael Doctor
D.J. Welch/Shiloah Te’o

Analysis: Will is probably the deepest LB position. Any of these three could start and do well. In my opinion, Welch is the most talented of the group, but Doctor is more refined at this point. Te'o is a tad small, but plays like you'd expect from a (former) Cougar. My two concerns with Doctor are his size and coverage skills. I've seen him have trouble bringing down and covering running backs. The depth here makes this the strongest LB corp.

Grade: A-

LEFT CORNERBACK
Jordan Poyer
Keynan Parker

Analysis: Again, a top heavy position. Poyer will be an all-conference player, but Parker hasn't developed at all. So, we have an A corner and a C corner, making the two-deep their average.

Grade: B

SAFETY
Anthony Watkins
Ryan Murphy

Analysis: Tremendous combo. Watkins is flat out solid, and Murphy is an up and coming ball hawk.

Grade: A-

SAFETY
Lance Mitchell
Tyrequek Zimmerman

Analysis: Interesting that we have two former WRs at this position. Similar players, too. Zimmerman is promising but unproven, and Mitchell has nagging abdominal issues. I have a minor concerns (i.e. health), but the talent is top notch.

Grade: B+

RIGHT CORNERBACK
Rashaad Reynolds
Sean Martin

Analysis: Rashaad Reynolds is an upgrade over Brandin Hardin. Hardin was solid in run support and brought a lot of experience, but his flexing, posturing, and flat out blown coverages were old. Reynolds has better coverage skills. We'll probably be frustrated with him as he gets burned and grows into the position, but by week 6 we'll have completely forgotten about Brandin Hardin.

Grade: B-

Overall, I expect the defense to be much improved over last season. My overall grade, at least for the starters, would be a B+. Depth knocks that down a bit, but barring injuries they'll be good.

The last post was getting crowded. Let's use this one for the weekend. Next week, around Tuesday, I'll draft coverage of the first game.

Some points of discussion:

Oregon and Cal up to no good. We all knew this already, so it's funny to see the media late to the party. SBB has more clout than angrybeavs, though, so now bigger outlets might run with it and investigate (what we've been saying for years!).

http://www.sportsbybrooks.com/ducks-cal-troubling-ties-to-mentor-of-recruits-29826

Also, depth chart update.

http://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/index.ssf/2011/08/oregon_state_football_latest_d.html

What jumps out to me is how thin the left CB position is. Jordan Poyer is probably the one defender the Beavs can't lose. Also, Andrew Seumalo listed as a starting DT. I mentioned last week this might happen. The depth at those two positions borders on terrifying.

One more note: I am trying to incorporate a function that will allow users to search comments rather than just the main posts. Look for that improvement soon.