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Conference Opener: Arizona State @ Oregon State

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At this moment, 4pm, I am completely jacked about tonight's home opener. Over the past two games, Craig Robinson has found his lineup (having Roberto Nelson helps) and substitutions. The past game, Lathan Wallace and Calvin Haynes played around 10-15 minutes each, which is still too much, but a big step in the right direct.

What I also loved to see was that Robinson is learning the value of Collier. He's great at zone and man defense, has a good mid-range shot, and is the only player on the roster with an ACC or Big East body. The guy is, in my opinion, the best of the young crop. That can change as time goes on, but what I see is a player who makes all the right decisions. I have yet to see Collier botch (see Joe Burton for the antithesis) any facet of the game. Brandt is another player coming on strong. What I love about these two is the solid fundamentals that a more athletic player like Jared Cunningham seems to lack.

One more thing I'd like to mention: what I saw last game was a team playing with confidence. It makes all the difference in the world. Now, can Arizona State break that confidence with a few early baskets? Most definitely, and my hunch is that will happen. But my overall point is that I have kept saying I believe this team will have a watershed moment at some point this season; while we are not sure that happened last week, we did see what things will look like when it does.

Below is the scouting report on Arizona State:

SCOUTING ARIZONA STATE: Arizona State enters the game on a four-game winning streak and a 7-4 overall record. The Sun Devils are led by 2009-10 Pac-10 Coach of the Year Herb Sendek and are the only Pac-10 team to win 20 games in each of the past three seasons. ASU returns three senior starters and five lettermen from last year's second-place Pac-10 team that finished 22-11 overall and 12-6 in Pac-10 play. Sophomore guard Trent Lockett leads the team in scoring at 14.7 points per game and is shooting 57 percent from the field. Seniors Ty Abbott and Rihards Kuksiks average double-figures in scoring at 12.8 and 11.5 points per game, respectively.

Arizona State plays a tough zone defense. Expect a ton of passing around the perimeter from the Beavers and many frustrating offensive possessions. To win this game, OSU will need to play intense defense, as they will not score more than 60 points. My key players to watch are Jared Cunningham and Devon Collier. Why? Because I think slashing to the basket is the way the Beavers win this game, and these are the two guys who can do it. If they can succeed, also watch for Nelson and Starks on kickout passes. That's how you'll see a semblance of offense tonight. If play in the paint falters, or they settle for long jump shots, expect a long night for the Beavers.

TV/Radio: FSN Northwest, KPAM (860 am)

Beaver Athletics & Cognitive Dissonance

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Cognitive dissonance as defined by psychology.org:

According to cognitive dissonance theory, there is a tendency for individuals to seek consistency among their cognitions (i.e., beliefs, opinions). When there is an inconsistency between attitudes or behaviors (dissonance), something must change to eliminate the dissonance. In the case of a discrepancy between attitudes and behavior, it is most likely that the attitude will change to accommodate the behavior.

Two factors affect the strength of the dissonance: the number of dissonant beliefs, and the importance attached to each belief. There are three ways to eliminate dissonance: (1) reduce the importance of the dissonant beliefs, (2) add more consonant beliefs that outweigh the dissonant beliefs, or (3) change the dissonant beliefs so that they are no longer inconsistent.

Dissonance occurs most often in situations where an individual must choose between two incompatible beliefs or actions. The greatest dissonance is created when the two alternatives are equally attractive. Furthermore, attitude change is more likely in the direction of less incentive since this results in lower dissonance. In this respect, dissonance theory is contradictory to most behavioral theories which would predict greater attitude change with increased incentive (i.e., reinforcement).

It's my opinion Oregon State suffers from this phenomena more than any major university. It starts with the administration, trickles to the athletic department, and finally ends with the fans.

Everybody knows Aesop's fable called the Fox and the Grapes. In the tale, a fox cannot reach the high hanging grapes, and so he tells himself, "I did not want those grapes anyway as they are probably not ripe." By doing so, the fox reduces the cognitive dissonance in his mind, making him better able to cope with his own short comings.

You might say, "okay Angry, but we are not foxes and we do not care to eat grapes." Fine, how about eating unhealthy food, or drinking alcohol. These things kill human, yet most humans want to live a long and healthy life. These contradicting thoughts create tension, and people resolve and justify this tension (i.e. their destructive actions) by claiming one or many of the following:

  • citing sources that say unhealthy foods may actually be healthy
  • rationalizing that drinking in moderation is okay
  • rationalizing that if food or drink doesn't kill them, something else will
  • convincing themselves that since others engage in the behavior it can't be all that bad.
  • stating that many people eat unhealthy food or drink heavily, but only a select few gain enough weight to die from it.

So how does this relate to Oregon State?

Well, the most obvious relationship is with Mike Riley's recruiting philosophy. As Steve Sanner astutely noted, Riley goes for the "low hanging fruit"…this is not at all different than Aesop's "The Fox and the Grape." Instead of building a proverbial ladder to reach the fruit he desires, Riley instead rationalizes his decision, saying things like "I want them to be 4 or 5 stars when they leave" and claiming to pay no attention to the recruiting services. The former is rationalization from making bad decisions, and the latter is a result of cognitive dissonance known as an ego defense mechanism. If Riley has an "A List" and fails to sign players from it, what he should do–to use the Aesop analogy once again–is build a ladder to reach the high, ripe fruit.

Does any of this sound familiar when you consider the average Beaver fan's perception of recruiting? Even to this day, most fans will welcome with open arms the unheralded 0-star recruit with no DI offers. They will firmly believe, like a dirt farmer with his lottery ticket, that player X is the next Mike Hass and Johnathan Smith, but there is never a peep about Joel Cohen, Ricky Herod, Rory Ross, and the much greater percentage of low-ranked recruits who never made it. Why do you think that it? The answer is because admitting or acknowledging failure lowers serotonin, creates a need for ego-defense mechanisms, and makes the individual accept their average existence.

With regard to the University as a whole, they are also guilty as charged. Selling the "Family Atmosphere" because they cannot sell things like tradition, prestige, academics, etc. The problem at such a large scale is that the University cannot speak the truth due to public perception. If OSU were to admit they are average across the board, enrollment would drop. Individual coaches and fans can admit flaws and relieve themselves of cognitive dissonance because the audience is specialized, smaller, and wants to hear the truth and how it will be improved upon.

People sometimes ask me why I put so much effort into running such a "negative" site. This is the reason why: cognitive dissonance. There is too much of it around this program. I want to admit what we are and why we are what we are, and until every last fan does so, I will continue to do it. This is somewhat of a plea, but I have pride and will not stoop to outright beg. But Beaver fan, by rationalizing the signing of Kellen Clute, Blake Harrah, et al., even if they turn out to be Shanon Sharpe and Dick Butkus, you have just done yourself and university an injustice because you have accepted the low hanging fruit. Demand the building of a ladder, find the materials to do so, pick the high fruit, and if it turns out to be sour there is no cognitive dissonance to rationalize as you can take solace in knowing you have tried your best. The bottom line is this: adjusting your attitude to accept the problem is not a solution. Changing your behavior, or demanding others change their behavior that is causing the problem is a solution. Demand more.

The Heralded January 14th Visit List

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There's been a lot of talk that January 14th will be the biggest recruiting weekend in program history.

Let's get some things straight.

First, there are only two 4-star athletes visiting (Todd Peat Jr and Viliami Moala). Of those two, one might be off the board and cancel his visit, as Peat is on the record saying he will announce a school before January 14th. So unless it's Oregon State, a school he will not have officially visited before then, you can forget about him. That leaves one 4-star athlete, Moala, who is now has OSU and Cal 50/50.

The rest of the list is okay, but the highest remaining players are 3-stars Byron Moore and Ryan Nowicki. Moore recently crossed Ohio State off his list. Nowikici has not raved about the Beavs as he has Penn State and others, but they're in the mix.

After that we're into the normal C-list guys. Marcus Peters, Walton Taumoepeua (grade issues), Vivii Teofilo (underrated prospect who should be at least 3-stars), Michael Thomas (another WR??), and Akeem Gonzales. While the C-listers are solid players, and I'd be happy with any one of them, they're the norm for OSU. What the team needs is the level of talent above these guys, and the odds of landing those blue chips looks low.

Two other blue chips in player are Stefan McClure and Torian White. White has soured big time on the UCLA turmoil, so I believe he commits to OSU following his official visit (January 21st). McClure has always loved UCLA, so he's going to have to find a reason not to sign with them. The turmoil might be enough to make that happen, but will he see through Rick's sales pitch?

The idea that all four Grant preps will sign at OSU now seems like a long shot. Sample isn't visiting with Moala, and he's looking to be a Washington lean with Cal in the mix. OSU is third right now. That ship sailed when their high school team advanced in the playoffs. Had they all visited for the Civil War, the odds of them all signing would have been high.

I guess my point is that while the weekend has a couple 4-star DTs, something the team desperately needs, there's also a lot of the standard talent. Biggest recruiting weekend ever? Maybe, but that says more about recruiting standards of the past than the current visitor list.

Basketball: Illinois-Chicago @ Oregon State

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Doh. I was on the road all day, and completely forgot there was a game tonight. Does anyone really care? Meh. Win some games Beavs, then we'll pay attention. For the die-hards who want to complain about the team, by all means go ahead. One thing worth noting is tonight is the last game before conference play. Might be worth checking out for that reason alone.

Here's the scouting report on tonight's opponent.

Illinois-Chicago enters the game with a 5-7 record after upsetting No. 12 Illinois, 57-54, at the United Center on Dec. 18. Senior guard Robo Kreps had 15 points as the Flames built an early lead then erased a late-game deficit for the upset. Illinois-Chicago has wins over Roosevelt, Rhode Island and two against Toledo. First-year head coach Howard Moore runs a version of the Wisconsin "swing" offense and an aggressive man-to-man defense. Kreps leads the team with 15.4 points per game and has 43 assists in his first full season running the point. Senior forward Paul Carter is averaging 14.3 points and a team-high 7.9 rebounds per game. Junior guard Zavion Neely (9.8 ppg), junior forward Paris Carter (4.6 ppg) and junior center Darrin Williams (6.3 ppg) are the other projected starters.

Here is the video feed: http://www.channelsurfing.net/

Discussion: Offensive Line

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Earlier this week I said what is most disconcerting about 2011 is that Riley seems intent on handing the starting job to the same group of offensive linemen.

From Cliff Kirkpatrick: as of today, this is the starting lineup and depth chart for next year:

  • Left tackle: Michael Philipp, Colin Lyons/Grant Enger
  • Left guard: Grant Johnson, Geoff Garner
  • Center: Josh Andrews, Aaron Magnuson, Roman Sapolu
  • Right guard: Burke Ellis, Michael Lamb
  • Right tackle: Mike Remmers, Colin Kelly

Let's look at each of these on by one.

While Michael Phillipp enrolled as a highly-touted, 4-star prospect, he's probably played a grade below that. Rumor is he was hurt much of this past season, which could explain why he looked more impressive as a freshman. Phillipp seems more suited to guard, so I'd rather see him replace Burke or Ellis.

Left guard Grant Johnson seemed to have the worst season of this group. I do not have the stats in front of me, so this is purely empirical, but there were an alarming number of penalties, missed blocks, and pushes into the backfield before the play could develop. To me Johnson and Burke are the two weakest links.

Center: Alex L was solid much of the year. His only flaw was that he could not execute shotgun snaps. This possibly cost the Beavers the game at TCU. Either way, he is gone, and Joshua Andrews is next in line. Personally, I felt Andrews should have been starting at guard in 2010. He was ready. But, okay, he's slated for center next year. He should do well there, but if Riley slides him out to guard and puts Sapolu at center the line suddenly has a lot more potential. Is Sapolu physically ready for that role? He came in undersized, but I hear he has a great motor and things clicked for him quickly. One more thing: who the heck is Aaron Magnuson and why is he on this list? Another walk-on as a backup??!

Right guard Burke Ellis didn't receive much heat this past season, other than being lumped in with the pejorative "one of 3 walk-ons". This is probably because his name was called out less than Johnson and Remmers. I don't know what to think of Ellis. He's not good in the sense he gets no push in the run game, but he wasn't horrible for a walk-on. If Michal Lamb is his backup, I say stick with Ellis, but the wildcard here is Mau Nomai. He was a high 3-star road grading recruit coming out of HS. He's had two years to physically mature, and with proper training over the next six months he should be able to get into playing shape. Nomani could possibly play guard as well.

Right tackle Mike Remmers is not a very good football player. That he'll have 3 years starting experience is his one perk. Maybe things finally click for him? He plays with a cavalier attitude, and always misses blocks or gets charged with a hold at the most inopportune times (e.g. Canfield driving for the winning score versus Cincy ring a bell?).

These eyes believe this is the best lineup:

  • Tackle: Grant Enger
  • Guard: Michael Phillipp
  • Center: Joshua Andrews
  • Guard: Mau Nomani
  • Tackle: Mike Remmers (lack of a better option)

Another acceptable variation would be this:

  • Tackle: Michael Phillip
  • Guard: Joshua Andrews
  • Center: Roman Sapolu
  • Guard: Mau Nomani
  • Tackle: Grant Enger

A final option:

  • Tackle: Michael Phillip
  • Guard: Geoff Garner
  • Center: Joshua Andrews
  • Guard: Mau Nomai
  • Tackle: Grant Enger

This is probably the strongest unit on paper, but it has the most assumptions in that Garner and Nomani regain playing weight and strength by summer. Also, a lot of people see Garner as a tackle rather than guard. I think he's better off at guard.

I'll say it again: the most disconcerting thing about this off-season has been Riley's reaffirmation that he's going with last year's line. This makes no sense. It is not as if that line didn't get a chance. They  had 12 games to show what they could do, and did just that. Riley's stubbornness and inability to mold and prepare the better talent on the roster should be THE major point of criticism if we see last years line starting versus Sacramento State. I am not here to blindly criticize without reason or without solution. I offered three valid lineups that would improve the team.

Thoughts? Other lineup suggestions?