Many times in the history of human thought a belief once heretical has become a universally accepted truth…the history of science is partly the history of paradoxes becoming commonplace and heresies becoming orthodoxies

–Encyclopedia Britannica, 1959 edition, on "Heresy"

We've had a week to digest the fact that the Beavers are not a National Championship caliber team. How's that going down for you guys? Over here it's fine.

As time passes and reflection sets in, I start to see reasons for optimism. For starters, the coaches (specifically Banker) are saying the right things. "Need more speed on the edge", "middle linebacker is a weak link", etc. Last year, it took Banker three games to admit #28 shouldn't be on the field. Banker seems more open to scheming for opponents as well. What a wild and crazy guy. What's next? He tells cornerbacks to turn their head and make a play?

The only bad news I've heard so far is that the coaches have given the players three days off. To me, this should be interpreted as rewarding the players a loss. I know it's not, but that's the message a player will (subconsciously) receive. At the very least, it's mismanagement of time and a lost opportunity to improve execution through repetition. If I were the coach, and I saw how much work lay ahead, I'd reschedule that recruiting trip. Three days off when Cameron Collins needs to be worked in at a new position in order to salvage the defense/season? Yeah, with that I have an issue.

What should be done:

1. Move Collins to linebacker permanently, this year, now, today, this minute.

2. Have a nickle package where Poyer plays CB, #28 and Mitchell play safety, Hardin moves to rover, and Collins/Doctor are both on the field.

Such a package would afford the team speed, pass coverage, and run support necessary to defend spread offenses. Against standard pro offenses in the Pac-10, a lineup of Roberson (MLB), Doctor, and Pankey would be an upgrade. If Pankey could be replaced with Unga, things would be looking even better.

Without shifting the defense as described, I don't see any possibility of the Beavers shocking the world later this month. In fact, it's hard to be confident about the Louisville game with the status quo. Hopefully we see creativity and change once the coaches return from their…vacations.

This post isn't very well thought out or anything. Just some leftover thoughts, musing, rambling, and points for discussion…

The Score

Beaver fans should be thankful the final margin was only 9. There were two 14 point swings that Dalton flat out handed the Beavers, and then TCU let off the throttle on their last drive. Katz left two interceptions of his own on the field, the kicked safety could have easily been a TD, and the early fumble…well, yeah. On the final drive, Riley decided not to call a timeout, which prevented the subsequent TCU field goal, showing Riley was most concerned about keeping the score respectable on the national stage. I don't blame him. Bottom line is this game had the feeling of a 30 point loss, even if the ledger read 9.

The Defense

Maybe now we can stop arguing about the LB corp?

1. Roberson was too slow to the edge, and when he did get outside, he over-pursued, the back cut inside, and he did the old OSU flailing arm tackle. Saw him get jersey and air a lot. I still feel this is the best LB we have, but he should be moved to MLB starting next practice.

2. I don't think Pankey had a single tackle, nor do I think he was close to making one. When he was injured and I wrote that the team was better off, hardcore Beaver optimist went nuts on me. Now?

3. I didn't even notice the MLB. Honestly, it's probably because most runs were off tackle or options to the outside. Dalton ran up the gut with ease, but I didn't pay close enough attention to name the culprit.

To put it succinctly, the LB corp is slow, weak, and have bad technique. During the bye week, the idea has to be to get Roberson in the middle and Collins/Doctor outside. There's no time to waste on the current experiment.

The verdict is still out on the secondary. I thought they played okay, but they weren't tested much. The bad plays were too few and far between to say if there's a legitimate pattern. My "cause for concern" radar went a bit haywire, but it's not all doom and gloom yet.

Coaching

The game plan was correct on offense. With the safeties in the box, you want to go over the top. Problem is Katz didn't convert enough opportunities to loosen the D. I think if he hit one more deep ball TCU would have backed off, and Quizz would have been able to run.

Banker is a dinosaur who still can't scheme any version of the spread. No need to beat that dead horse or try to convince since it's now a well-known fact.

The main problem with the coaching staff is the lack of intensity they project onto players. Think about the TCU sideline compared to the OSU sideline. TCU played with a sense of urgency, meaning they knew the importance of every play. OSU seems to think, "as long as we make most plays and hang in the game, that's good enough." They seem to be content with a post game interview where players talk about how close they were, and if one break went their way they would have won the game. But they never do win the big game. At some point you have to ask: why is that? The answer is confidence and intensity. You have to want it more, and further, you have to be trained to want it more and (mentally) overcome the animal's natural inclination to conserve energy. We are not a hunter/gatherer society anymore, Beavers. There is plenty of food waiting at the hotel and there are beds, too, so burn your energy.

This problem goes back years, though…it's nothing new. It's a reflection of the head man's personality.

And before blaming this on a talent deficiency, look at TCU's recruiting classes. The RB, Wesley, who ran for 8.0 per carry, was a 2-star recruit, as was Tank Carder in the middle. TCU recruits worse than us, believe it or not.

Loose ends

Just a few more random thoughts…

Hekker once again made his worst kick when the team needed him most.

Katz played a great first game. The criticism I'm reading about his performance isn't fair.

Quizz looked shot last night. Physically and emotionally.

Riley looked depressed/shot. His last two games were the fiasco last night and the Civil War. I wouldn't be surprised if Riley retires earlier than we all expect. He's capped with the talent he's personally able to recruit, and part of his dejection is that he's beginning to realize it.

Why didn't a coach call a timeout during the Katz audible? WRs were shrugging shoulders on the field, meaning they didn't know what play was called.

Beating Louisville is no longer an given.

Boise State is going to dismantle this defense is nothing changes.

The Beavers are built better for the Pac-10 than any of these three OOC games.

The McAndrews experiment should end; the guy cannot run block. Get Phillipp on the field.

They'll be a point during this season (in Pac-10 play) where the new LB configuration is in there and things suddenly "click", and we'll wish we had played TCU that Saturday instead of yesterday.

Gary Patterson is extremely lame for opening the roof 12 minutes before game time; but if that's my school's coach I'm loving it. So, good move. Bad foresight by the Beavers–should have had it written in the contract that the roof must remain closed.

I'd like to see the Beavs use a read-option offense. It's an equalizer against opponents with superior talent. The pro offense and 4-3 defense are somewhat antiquated in college ball. Creativity is king right now.

If TCU is in the championship game I might be done with college football.

The Ducks would have drubbed TCU.

Oh…and fire Mark Banker.

I'm standing by my 45-17 prediction. Simply put, the Beavers are not playing physical enough to win this game.

Katz is clearly the one bright spot.

On defense, they're playing both passive and slow. Roberson missed some key tackles. Haven't noticed the MLB too much, which is probably a good thing.

The offense isn't playing well, either. Sure, they are pass blocking, but they aren't opening any lanes for Quizz.

This game has all the makings of the 2006 game versus Boise State, including the early lead and subsequent relinquishing of said lead. What I see happening in the second half is TCU receives the kickoff, goes up 28-14, Beavs abandon the run completely, and Katz begins to throw interceptions. Watch out.

Also, where are the Johnny Hekker advocates today? I dare one to show up and talk about post-season awards. I dare one.

The first game day of 2010 is finally here, and I think we can all agree on one thing: this is an exciting opener.

Sure, the easy win vs Eastern Washington or whomever was on the schedule prior to TCU would have been a great tune up given the uncertainty surrounding key positions, but this game will challenge the team, harden them for Pac-10 play, and have the added bonus of a nice pay day on the national stage. It's win-win for the Beavers, even if it is clear they are going to lose.

The problem with this game, for the Beavers, is their weaknesses play to TCU's strengths.

For example, TCU is not a great offensive team, but they are efficient. What they do well is run the ball and throw the short pass, specifically screens. Can Paea help there? Certainly. But do you believe TCU isn't aware of him? Therefore, Paea will be relegated to nothing more than a cog. I foresee sweeps and pitches, rather than plunges or dives, aimed to avoid Paea and spring the (TCU) RB into the weak linebacking corp of the Beavers' defense. On 3rd and long, expect screens and draws to counter attack the Beavers tendency to arm-tackle and over pursue. TCU also has solid wide receivers who will move the chains at key times. And finally, Dalton, while not a great QB, is a heady player who will not be phased by pressure, and he'll break the Beavers' back at least once on a 3rd down scramble. The Horned Frogs poise at QB is the glaring advantage.

As for the Beavers, on paper, they should be able to move the ball, but does it translate to the game? That's the million dollar question. We know James Rodgers will get a lot of all purpose yards, but does he get them at the right time? A 50 yard punt return in the 4th quarter when the Beavers are down 20 doesn't do much. Therefore, the Beavers need to execute critical downs. Watch  early in the game for:

1. Yards gained on first down, specifically runs by Quizz.

2. 3rd down conversions near the 50 yard line (i.e the different between converting this play and punting is a win versus a loss).

3. Turnovers inside the 50.

4. Settling for FGs early in the game.

These four things are good indicators of how the game will play out, and you'll know in the first quarter.

For the Beavers, the weakness on offense is clearly the quarterback, so expect TCU to blitz and confuse Katz, who has likely never seen a 4-2-5 defense. I expect at least three interceptions from the Beaver QB. Also consider the 4-2-5 defense substitutes a CB for a LB, adding more speed to the edge, which could nullify James Rodgers running fly sweeps. The weakness of this defense is that the safeties and corners are active in the box, so it's possible to get behind them (i.e. play action), but for those things to work the offense has to establish the run. Quiz may have a hard time doing that with Tank Carder manning the middle. From all accounts, the guy is a beast. Advantage: TCU.

So as I said, for me this game is a matchup mismatch. Beaver fans who are optimistic yap that OSU has an all world running back and defensive tackle, both of whom are better talents than anyone TCU puts on the field. True enough, but scheme, matchups, and confidence win or lose games, and TCU has both the coaching advantage and the psychological advantage.

Prediction: My stance is this: I'm not going to emotionally invest in an early season Beaver game versus a DI opponent until they prove they can win this type of game. Right now, this stage is too big for the Beavers. They have tried and tried, with the list of failures growing large: LSU, Fresno State, Louisville, Boise State, Cincinnati, Penn State, Cincinnati, and likely add TCU and Boise State to that list. Since Riley's return, his best early-season OOC road win versus a DI opponent was against UNLV last season. Also noteworthy is that the Beavers are 1-8 all time versus Texas schools when playing in Texas. The one win, versus Baylor, came in 1996. And now I am supposed to believe Mike has suddenly figured it all out? I might be cynical, but I am not dumb.

TCU 45, OSU 17