Unlike Louisville, I've actually seen Boise State play, so my opinion on this game should be more educated. What follows are observations from games I've seen.

a. Boise State plays their offensive game in a 12 x 53 (width) yard box. That is, the quarterback will rarely throw the ball deeper than 12 yards. Their pass plays rely on yards after the catch, throws to the first-down markers but not beyond, etc. Slants, hitches, and improvised pass routes make for a lot of their yards. When they work the field horizontally, it's usually short passes in the flat or screens, not deep outs, etc. Precision is their best weapon.

The Beavers should encourage Moore the beat them with the deep pass by stacking the box.  It's Moore's lone weakness, so if he beats them in that manner, tip your cap.

b. Peterson likes to loosen the defense by pounding Doug Martin. Then, when the opponent has had enough contact, he hits them with the faster backs. Sometimes they do it the other way around, but either way, Martin is the key to the running game, as he is the player who seems to convert key downs and break the opponent's will.

Two things are needed in order to slow down Doug Martin.

(1) Physical mass

(2) Gang tackling

The benefit of playing man coverage with corners is it frees up a safety. The Beavers should use this safety to roam freely and swarm to the ball–gang tackling. The Beavers also need mass (i.e. Castro and his 320lbs at DT rather than Olander). They should have separate defensive packages for when Martin is in the game versus Avery. When Avery is in there, put speed on the field.

c. Boise State encourages cut backs lanes, broken plays, etc.

They'll purposely load one side of the formation, only to have Avery cut back to the weak side and rip off a big run. When they play straight up, they're much less effective. It's almost a variant of the spread in that they're getting their fastest player in space with a one on one assignment.

It's vital that Miller and Henry maintain inside contain. They can't blow past Moore and let him out on the edge where he can buy time and improvise. That's how Boise hit their big plays with the wideouts. In the run game, have the 8th man in the box cheat toward the cut back lane, and hope Wilson and Roberson are good enough to defend the strong side. The defense needs to think in terms of making the 12 x 53 box in which Boise plays even smaller. If you give these guys an inch, they'll take a yard.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Broncos like to mix things up depending on down and distance. They'll use everything from six defensive backs to the standard 4-3. I'm nervous about Ryan Katz in this game. Does he continue to show poise and avoid mistakes? If ever there's an opponent that can scheme a young QB into a dreadful game it's this one. That being said, the one advantage the Beavers have is in the skill that cannot be taught: speed. James Rodgers and Markus Wheaton can do severe damage in this game, as they are faster than any Bronco. I don't see Quiz finding running room–figure on 65 yards, max. That's a shame, too, since it would behoove the Beavs to control the clock and keep the defense off the field. However, OSU's offensive line has been man-handled when run blocking, and Boise State takes tremendous pride in stopping the run. It's a bad formula.

Prediction: This is going to sound strange, and perhaps flat out contrarian, but I don't see a blowout. Let me outline some reasons why.

• By painting the practice field blue, the Beavers' athletic department has shown how seriously they're taking this game. Additionally, in Riley's press conferences he has astutely noted and articulated Boise's strengths, suggesting to me that he's cognizant of the opponent's tendencies, and therefore at the least will be able to slow them.
• The entire state of Oregon will be rooting for the Beavers. I don't think you can underestimate the fact that Beavers and Ducks are on the same page for this one. You'll likely even see Duck fans at this game cheering the Beavs. In solidarity there is strength.
• The entire nation, for the most part, will be rooting for the Beavers. Outside of Idaho, I'd wager 90% of the nation has disrespect for the Bronco's schedule. I can't imagine anyone believes they deserve a shot in the title game, and a loss on Saturday will ensure they lose that opportunity.
• The Beavers usually come alive week 3 or 4, and last week when I expected the defense to be worn out from being on the field all game, they stepped up and sealed the victory. Am I ready to declare they're good? No, but I have to believe the stand last week will boost confidence on Saturday. A key point is how Tony Wilson came on late in that game. Has the light turned on for this young linebacker? It was flickering.
• Boise State is a short pass, power run team. No matchup is great for the Beavers' defense right now, but is one the better options.

Those are the reasons I think the game will be relatively close. Do I think the Beavers win? Well, let me put it this way: it would surprise me, but it wouldn't shock me. Since I believe in writing the truth, it's time to admit the aura, preparation, and mindset of the team feels better this week. But, at the end of the day, Kellen Moore will be too efficient, Doug Martin too strong, Jeremy Avery and Austin Pettis too hungry, and the Bronco defense too stout. Boise wins, but not in blowout fashion.

35-24, Broncos

During the off-season, I mentioned how I loved the TCU and Boise State games because they'll both have a BCS feel to them. Since the Beavers haven't been able to play their way into such games, I thought it was a great way to give a deserving fanbase that type of excitement.

However, the loss, or gamble, is obviously in weakening national perception. Everyone is going to be watching this game, which brings up some good questions and points of discussion:

1. Does national perception matter at all to a team from Corvallis with no realistic shot at a BCS game? Before you say "Rose Bowl", realize it's been 45 years, so the "realistic shot" comment is not off the mark.

2. How much does a blowout loss hurt recruiting?

3. If the Beavers are blown out, what will it do to national perception (i.e. what will voters and pundits say)?

4. Conversely, if they win, will recruiting and national perception get any bump at all? The answer to that question may determine if the risk is worth taking in the first place.

Personally, I love it, and I do not think they're going to get blown out of this game. Tomorrow, I'll break down the game and explain why I believe that, but for now let's hear what you guys think about this opportunity. Do you like your team being in the spotlight? Do you think this game is going to hurt the program long term? Do you believe they win and it creates a boon? Etc. There's a lot to discuss. We're likely on the precipice of a program defining moment.

We're about 15% through the season, and it's usually around this point that an unexpected players or two emerges. These are the guys who have made me do a double take:

Castro Masaniai: it looks like the line will be in good hands once Paea leaves. I'd like to see them play next to each other more often with Castro spelling Oldander.

Tony Wilson:  He had a sack last week, and was in on a lot more plays than week 1. I'm not sure what Wilson is yet, but he did take a noticeable leap.

Dominic Glover: I'm putting my reputation on the line by giving him the seal of approval as he's been hit and miss and could wind up being a disaster, but I saw enough positives to be impressed.

Anthony Watkins: He was flying around versus Louisville and actually looked like one of the faster players on defense. I never expected much from this guy, but he looked better than advertised this past Saturday.

______________________________________________________________________________________________-

Conversely, these players have been disappointing so far:

Mike Remmers: 3rd year as a starter, and he still can't run block.

Brandin Hardin: I'm still a believer, but he's losing my confidence weekly. Those who said he should be a safety were probably right. I wasn't in that camp until recently.

Suaesi Tuimaunei: I realize he saved a touchdown, but he's constantly out of position and a step late. I was expecting a lot since he beat out Collins, but he hasn't lived up to the fall camp hype.

Gabe Miller: He has the size and speed to be good, but he has no inside move and winds up running right past the QB. Huge bust so far.

Burke Ellis: It's easy to blend in and hide at guard. Keep an eye on this guy; he's one of the culprits to Quizz's slow start.

The rest of the guys are performing how you'd expect (e.g. While Pankey is a performing bad, that was expected, so he's not on the "disappointment list" for this season).

Do you guys agree/disagree? Who has impressed/disappointed you so far?

"There will be those who accept it with joy because they knew it was true all along, and there will be those for whom it will bring pain, for it exposes the inadequacy of their world view."  –Leon Festinger

The media put in our collective minds the notion that all the Beavers had to do was show up, and Louisville would bow to our superior talent, resulting in a three touchdown victory for simply taking the field. What that idea was founded on, it's hard to fathom, since Louisville actually had better athletes than the Beavers. It seems that the media was lazy in analyzing this game; nobody knew much about Louisville, and nobody cared enough to investigate. Vegas said the Beavers win big, so that's what went to print.

Fans were told to expect a drubbing; instead, they were given a one score victory. The aftermath of the dupe is interesting. Fans, being irrational, were more disappointed after the win versus Louisville than after the loss to TCU. All this does is showcase the absurd, and somewhat schizophrenic, nature of emotion, or "fandom."

Let me inject "Beaver Nation" (hackneyed phrase alert) with a dose of reality:

1. We all expected the Beavers to be 1-2 after their first three games.

2. We expected that win to come against Louisville.

3. The defense is not good. It has been in decline for three years, and performed badly during fall camp.

So why is today's outcome a surprise? If you've observed the team objectively–that is, without emotion–since camp began, then today's outcome should be exactly what one would expect. It's hard to understand fans who are (figuratively) jumping off cliffs today; those who are, only after this game, willing to admit "hey there may be problems with the defense"; and, those who truly expected a convincing victory.

I'd like to propose this paradigm to the fanbase: curb your emotion.

The optimistic, emotional fan, while believing he is good, helpful, loyal, and doing his duty, is in reality a cancer to the program. To approve of a flaw or hindrance [toward a goal] is a disservice to yourself, fellow fans, the recipient of the accolade.

Next week the Beavers head to Boise State. The team, taking their cue from the head man, will show up even-keel, and hence will be down three scores shortly after stepping off the bus. It gives me great displeasure to document such probabilities.

This season has great importance. Not because of Rose Bowl aspirations, but because of the underlying agita and mounting frustration within the fanbase. What you're seeing after the Louisville win, is that even the optimistic, disillusioned fan is asking that the bar be raised. 2010 could go down in Beaver history as the season of mutiny, where the most loyal finally turn on their beloved coaching staff and demand excellence rather than hope for it. The fact that we today witnessed disappointment after a victory is a sign that these forces are indeed in motion.

I'm not going to pretend to know a lot about the Louisville Cardinals since I haven't watched them play since 2005, but these are my points of concern:

1. They have a senior QB, which is always dangerous.

2. Mike Sanford is their offensive coordinator. As some might know, he was head coach at UNLV last season when they almost pulled the upset. It also means they probably incorporate some spread/option components.

3. They rushed for 200 yards on an SEC defense. Granted, Kentucky, but an SEC defense nonetheless.

4. 8 sacks. Inferior opponents, but still, 8 sacks. It's not as if the Beavers had those kind of numbers after playing Portland State last year, so there is something to it.

5. A lot of recruits on that roster are from Florida and SEC country. In other words, at the very least, they look the part.

6. They're coming off a victory. Confidence will be high.

That's what Louisville have going for them. Fortunately, however, there's a lot more bad news, including the 500 yards of offense they yielded to Kentucky.

There's no need to expound on this game. The Cardinal play into the Beavers hands on both offense and defense. Quiz will gain a buck fifty, Katz will notch his first win en route to throwing for 230, the defense will look better, and the Beavs will put up points. The last I saw the spread was +/- 19.5, which is too high. Bring on Boise.

31-17, Beavers.