The first game day of 2010 is finally here, and I think we can all agree on one thing: this is an exciting opener.

Sure, the easy win vs Eastern Washington or whomever was on the schedule prior to TCU would have been a great tune up given the uncertainty surrounding key positions, but this game will challenge the team, harden them for Pac-10 play, and have the added bonus of a nice pay day on the national stage. It's win-win for the Beavers, even if it is clear they are going to lose.

The problem with this game, for the Beavers, is their weaknesses play to TCU's strengths.

For example, TCU is not a great offensive team, but they are efficient. What they do well is run the ball and throw the short pass, specifically screens. Can Paea help there? Certainly. But do you believe TCU isn't aware of him? Therefore, Paea will be relegated to nothing more than a cog. I foresee sweeps and pitches, rather than plunges or dives, aimed to avoid Paea and spring the (TCU) RB into the weak linebacking corp of the Beavers' defense. On 3rd and long, expect screens and draws to counter attack the Beavers tendency to arm-tackle and over pursue. TCU also has solid wide receivers who will move the chains at key times. And finally, Dalton, while not a great QB, is a heady player who will not be phased by pressure, and he'll break the Beavers' back at least once on a 3rd down scramble. The Horned Frogs poise at QB is the glaring advantage.

As for the Beavers, on paper, they should be able to move the ball, but does it translate to the game? That's the million dollar question. We know James Rodgers will get a lot of all purpose yards, but does he get them at the right time? A 50 yard punt return in the 4th quarter when the Beavers are down 20 doesn't do much. Therefore, the Beavers need to execute critical downs. Watch  early in the game for:

1. Yards gained on first down, specifically runs by Quizz.

2. 3rd down conversions near the 50 yard line (i.e the different between converting this play and punting is a win versus a loss).

3. Turnovers inside the 50.

4. Settling for FGs early in the game.

These four things are good indicators of how the game will play out, and you'll know in the first quarter.

For the Beavers, the weakness on offense is clearly the quarterback, so expect TCU to blitz and confuse Katz, who has likely never seen a 4-2-5 defense. I expect at least three interceptions from the Beaver QB. Also consider the 4-2-5 defense substitutes a CB for a LB, adding more speed to the edge, which could nullify James Rodgers running fly sweeps. The weakness of this defense is that the safeties and corners are active in the box, so it's possible to get behind them (i.e. play action), but for those things to work the offense has to establish the run. Quiz may have a hard time doing that with Tank Carder manning the middle. From all accounts, the guy is a beast. Advantage: TCU.

So as I said, for me this game is a matchup mismatch. Beaver fans who are optimistic yap that OSU has an all world running back and defensive tackle, both of whom are better talents than anyone TCU puts on the field. True enough, but scheme, matchups, and confidence win or lose games, and TCU has both the coaching advantage and the psychological advantage.

Prediction: My stance is this: I'm not going to emotionally invest in an early season Beaver game versus a DI opponent until they prove they can win this type of game. Right now, this stage is too big for the Beavers. They have tried and tried, with the list of failures growing large: LSU, Fresno State, Louisville, Boise State, Cincinnati, Penn State, Cincinnati, and likely add TCU and Boise State to that list. Since Riley's return, his best early-season OOC road win versus a DI opponent was against UNLV last season. Also noteworthy is that the Beavers are 1-8 all time versus Texas schools when playing in Texas. The one win, versus Baylor, came in 1996. And now I am supposed to believe Mike has suddenly figured it all out? I might be cynical, but I am not dumb.

TCU 45, OSU 17

The Beavers have moved Cameron Collins to linebacker, as I wrote they should do on August 15th. He could have been learning the position; that's two weeks wasted.

Moving the oversized-for-his-position Cameron Collins to MLB would have been the proper strategy this off-season. Collins is too bulky to be chasing down and/or covering WRs and TEs…[…]… Tuimaunei is making a push this fall.

-angry

My guess is that Roberson moves to MLB, while Pankey and Collins are outside. Poyer backs up #28, who has come on strong.

This is a smart move.

The Beavers defense just got a huge upgrade with Roberson at MLB. The criticism due is in questioning why it took this long to make the change.

This article simply cracks me up, mainly because it's exactly what I've been writing for three weeks.

Most of this blog's readership agreed with me, but a bunch of dissenters showed up vehemently denying there were problems with the defense, stating that the scrimmages only showcased the potency of the offense.

"Angry, you know nothing about football, I think the coaches know more than you and they aren't complaining about the defense!"

"Angry, you are an idiot, scrimmages mean nothing. You can't deduct anything from them!"

What I can deduct from that train of thought is that Mark Banker, too, must be an insane idiot who knows nothing about football. Right?

Looks like Angry is once again proven to be a Cassandra, as now the defensive coach has come out and essentially admitted that his defense (specifically the run defense) stinks, validating the past three weeks of my work. It makes me wonder what excuse the Pollyannas are going to come up with next. For those who are unfamiliar with the terms, here you go.

To be honest, I can't wait to hear the orange-colored optimists' new delusions (ironic, aren't the Cassandras supposed to be the delusional ones?). The mental disease that is fandom has become somewhat of a subplot on this blog. Isn't it interesting how more people are going to be concerned about the defense now that a person of authority said the defense is poor? Can you say The Milgram Experiments?

If I had to guess, I'd say that instead of admitting my assessment was correct, or of admitting that one need not be a coach to have a correct assessment, the new delusion will go something like this:

"Angry, Paea makes all the difference! He wasn't in the scrimmages!"

Or

"Angry, the players are going to read that article and step up their game! You just watch!"

Or they'll stick to the notion that the offense, breaking in a new, sophomore QB, is just that good.

Can't wait.

Oh, and no need to say it: apology accepted.

"I don't know, typical coaching paranoia sets in,'' said Riley when he was asked how good he feels about this first game.

 "We kind of go back and forth with that.'' 

As Riley said, the million dollar question is "what are they going to try to do to us in this game?''

TCU coach Gary Patterson knows, but he isn't telling.

Correct answer: "I feel confident in my team."

If you're the verbose type and need expounding: "Our offense gives them a lot to think about."

Riley's fear is palpable, and thus, it once again becomes clear he isn't the guy to lead us to the promised land. Riley hopes to win instead of demanding it or expecting it. Hate to have to write that since he's a great guy, but every time he opens his mouth he proves me right. Needless to say, it's disheartening to hear such deflating comments from the head coach just days before the most anticipated kickoff in recent history.

1. Oregon-Opportunistic defense, team intensity, and uber confidence trickling down from the top. The QB issue isn't an issue. Remember: Justin Roper put up numbers in this offense, proving anyone can. Oh, and look at the Ducks first six games and tell me how they're not 6-0 and being hyped as a darkhorse National Title contender. Beaver fans: when you think you have enough barf bags buy one more.

2. Arizona-Other than the game @ Oregon, the schedule lines up aces. This league is still all about QB play, and Foles is the best in the conference. Arizona also sports an intriguing defense; it's loaded with high caliber JCs. Can all seven of those guys gel fast enough? Not sure, but I imagine they do to some degree. Legit contender in conference.

3. Oregon State-The Beavers have too much to overcome to win the conference. A green, sophomore QB, shaky run defense, and a remorseless schedule (forget the out of conference games, they also play 75% road games between October 9th and November 6th). The (poor) punting game, which could theoretically help mask shaky defense, isn't going to help the cause. The conference is down this year, a fact that will negate some of these problems, and the Rose Bowl motivation is omnipresent and cannot be discounted. But in the end, this is a flawed team. The Rodgers bros will their comrades to a 3rd place finish.

4. UCLA-I think I am one of the few who likes this squad. Prince improved in every game last year. The RB (Franklin) is good, and the defense has great potential with Datone Jones, Akeem Ayers, and Rahim Moore. Their special teams are rock solid. Dark horse team, and if Prince makes a quantum leap they're a conference contender.

5. USC-There are a lot of predictions that these guys are going to win the Pac-10. That is ludicrous. Coupled with the off the field turmoil, they severely downgraded at head coach and have an overrated QB. Fifth is generous and based solely on talent and reputation. The other 9 teams who were pushed around for a decade? Oh, they're going to be out for blood alright.

6. Washington-Jake Locker this, Jake Locker that. Jake Locker, sixth place.

7. Stanford-The loss of Toby Gerhart is huge. This team is not even average without him. A slow defense, an overrated QB with few weapons, and a head coach who is going to compound expectations (i.e. pressure) on his talent-starved squad by running his mouth.

8. California-The Pac-10 has become more defense oriented over the past five years, and that's been bad news for the Bears. A mediocre QB plus a new defensive coordinator should spell a down year in Berkeley.

9. Arizona State-Does anyone know what to make of this team? I sure don't. I do know that most of the players I see on paper either stink or are unknowns, and that's enough to warrant a 9th place finish in my blog.

10. Washington State-They are improving, slowly. Expect a lot of fight, improved D, and a solid ground game. The Cougs loathe being a mockery, and that just might be motivation enough to leapfrog Arizona State.