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Is Jacquizz Rodgers Overused?

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Jacquizz Rodgers has 141 of the Beavers' 142 carries by a running back. That is 99.3%. Some might argue, “But Angry, the fly sweep is a run, so Wheaton and James Rodgers act as the 2nd back.” Okay, in that case, Quizz has “only” received 89% of total carries. Another argument might be, “Angry, Quizz is the best back in football—any coach in his right mind would give him 99% of carries!”

Really? Have you heard of a coach by the name of Nick Saban? He won a National Championship last year with a Heisman Trophy running back. Take a guess the percentage of the team’s carries Mark Ingram received.

Okay, I will tell you: 52% (271 out of 520 total carries), and he won a Heisman Trophy in the SEC.

Interesting, no?

Then there is the law of diminishing returns to consider, which states:

Diminishing returns (also called diminishing marginal returns) refers to how the marginal production of a factor of production starts to progressively decrease as the factor is increased, in contrast to the increase that would otherwise be normally expected. According to this relationship, in a production system with fixed and variable inputs (say factory size and labor), each additional unit of the variable input (i.e., man-hours) yields smaller and smaller increases in outputs, also reducing each worker's mean productivity.

Is this phenomenon taking place before our eyes? I do not know, but the numbers say that as Quizz has progressed in his career, he has become less effective. His rushing average is listed below:

2008: 4.8

2009: 5.3

2010: 4.4

While his can be attributed to tougher competition, it could also be physical wear and tear on his 5’7 frame. Riley has never used his backups, so some will indubitably argue for the former, but they are missing the larger point: using multiple backs benefits everyone. There is no need for Quizz to absorb the impact of every hit—think of all the 1 yard runs.

If Ryan McCants, Jordan Jenkins, et al are not good enough to receive a single carry per game, then you must concede Riley whiffed on his entire stable of running backs, further solidifying his reputation as a poor recruiter.  

“Angry, it’s simple: Riley just trusts Quizz more than the others so he gets all the carries!!.”

Okay, tell yourself what you must, but I’m always going to put more merit in how a National Championship coach manages his roster over a 3rd place finisher in the Pac-10. And I dare you to find another head coach who uses the same back 99% of the time. That is my challenge to any dissenter.

While Quizz is a great player, there’s no reason to believe he wouldn’t be better with an occasional breather, and further, nothing brings a team together more than defined, niche roles where all are allowed to excel. That is what family is about. Right?

I’m Beaved Out

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Games like last night's make me wonder if it's worth the mental and physical tole of following the Beavs passionately.

During the entire 4th quarter, and especially during the overtime, my body felt physically ill, stressed, even shaking at times. Even the half dozen cocktails in my system couldn't keep me calm. After the liquor passed through my system, it still took a couple Xanax to sooth the nerves enough to fall asleep around 2am.

I feel like today is not the time to criticize, but instead it's a day to question the perils of being a fan.

So, for you, reader, I have three questions:

1. Do you think it's worth risking one's health to watch this team? After all, it's well known stress is a silent killer.

2. Does anyone else have this type of physiological and emotional response to loses?

3. Why the hell do we put ourselves through this?

Reading the comments, it seemed many fans were feeling Beaved out last night.

I'm wondering if it's not wiser to simply tune out "the process" of working towards a Rose Bowl. Maybe it's better to turn on the TV once a year, January 1st, and see who's playing in the Granddaddy. If it's the Beavers, great. Maybe that's better for my health, for our health?

Anyway, I feel shot this afternoon. There's a lot of criticism to dish out, but I don't have the will or energy to talk about the specifics or beat dead horses right now. For those who do, by all means discuss it in the comment area.

The reality is I'll get a few nights of good sleep, stay away from the bottle and pills, not watch any NCAA next weekend, and after the bye I'll come back more passionate than ever. What we should all do is turn off the TV and computer all together until January 1st.

OSU @ Washington: in-game comments

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As always, this thread is for venting, cheering, discussing food and libations, etc on gameday.

What will you be looking to see today?

Points that have my interest:

  • Whether Quizz can find running room versus this porous defense. I'm highly frustrated with the walk-ons on the offensive line. On seemingly every play at least one of them botches a block. Progress and confidence needs to be made today versus a weak opponent, as the back half of the schedule is loaded.
  • The referees. Enough said.
  • Do the Beavers' nagging injuries synergize to the point of weakening the whole?
  • Can a MLB please step forward? A few weeks ago, it looked like Tony Wilson's light turned on, but then, inexplicably, Reuben Robinson started seeing more playing time. It's not unusual to have no idea what the defensive minds are thinking, but it is unusual that their patience ever pans out. Play Wilson.
  • Will Collins get more playing time at OLB than Pankey? He's been slowly seeing the field more.
  • Will Brandin Hardin thump his chest and do the "incomplete pass" signal if Locker overthrows his man? Note to Brandin: this is not cool. In fact, it's embarrassing and needs to stop.
  • Finally, Jake Locker–looking forward to more pratfalls in a Buster Keaton-esque performance from this clown, while imagining Mel Kiper's face and reputation dropping even further.

These aren't "keys to the game", just a combination of random things I find interesting, humorous (e.g. Hardin), frustrating etc and will therefore be watching closely.

Speaking of interesting, did you guys see how quickly the MWC enacted a rule change and suspensions? http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=5690191

Yeah.

Put the gin down, boys; you'll need it two weeks from now.

Analysis: Oregon State @ Washington

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It feels good to be back to discussing football. This week it's the Washington Huskies. 

I like to glance the Vegas' opening line and how it moves throughout the week. This week, the Beavers opened as 2.5 favorites, and it's now down to a pick 'em game. I understand the common gambler's reasoning for picking Washington:

1. James Rodgers is out.

2. Washington beat USC.

But what the average college football fan doesn't realize is that Markus Wheaton is just as good, if not better (gasp!) than James Rodgers. Okay, so he is probably not better, but only because James had some leadership skills and four years in the offense, allowing him to master details. Wheaton is getting there fast, though.

As far as Washington beating USC–I have a feeling a lot of average to good teams are going to beat USC. The Trojans have nothing to play for, and they have a head coach whom nobody respects.

So a 2.5 line, and now a pick 'em game. Really?

I love the Beavers in this game. There are few teams with a worse defense than the Beavs, but Washington is one of them. OSU also has a superior running back, quarterback, and wide receivers. Their return game is second to none in the country, and should continue churning with Poyer and Wheaton taking over duties. Where does Washington have an advantage? Even their coaching staff is inferior. Figure Vegas gives Washington +3 for the home field. That is still way too low.

Notice above I said the Beavs have the advantage at QB. Mel Kiper wouldn't agree, but if we're being honest who would you rather have right now? Locker is an erratic mental case. He'll overthrow a receiver wide open down the middle (right into the arms of Lance Mitchell) at least once in this game. Katz has been in 3 huge games this year versus top 10 teams. How many has Locker been involved in his entire career? Truth be told: Locker is a gamer, leader of men, and a player who demands respect due to the passion with which he plays the game, but his football intelligence and throwing ability do not match his heart.

The wild cards that might keep this game close:

1. Noise–We all know the reputation of Husky Stadium. However, the Beavers have quietly become road warriors.

2. ESPN broadcast — The Beavers are notoriously horrible in the prime time. However, they do tend to play better in this time slot versus familiar Pac-10 opponents.

3. Mobile QB–Sure, Locker can't throw, but he can scoot. Luckily Washington does not run much option.

Last week's game felt like a pick 'em. This one doesn't.

Beavers by at least 7, but I'm thinking more like 13+.

38-24, good guys.

Petition: Response from the Pac-10

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Thank you for your email and for sharing your concerns.  

Please know that the Pac-10 takes all issues related to the safety of our student-athletes very seriously. In enforcing the playing rules, all dangerous, late, defenseless, and targeting hits to the head during Pac-10 games are reviewed by our senior staff (including our Officiating Coordinator) each week, and discipline is handed down by the Commissioner if warranted.

We are continuously reviewing, grading and looking to improve all aspects of our games. We have a thorough weekly review process of every game to evaluate all aspects of officiating, including on field and replay. Aside from hearing from each of the schools about specific plays or game situations, we also hear from fans, like you, who also share their concerns. The situations you have raised will be addressed during the review process. 

Thanks again for your comments. 

Sincerely,

Kirk Reynolds