Usually I like to wait until Wednesday to do an analysis. It gives me time to read about the teams, players, etc and watch film. Lucky for me, when I came home for lunch today the Arizona/Cal game was on replay, and I pretty much saw all I need to know.

What surprised me is how much trouble Nick Foles has throwing deep passes. For some reason, I thought he could sling it, but most of his passes go to wide receivers in the flat. Arizona loves the yards after catch. Their formula seems to be throw a pass in the flat on 1st down and hope for at least 5 yards. It seems like they did that every play. And thinking back to last year when Foles torched the Beavs, I seem to remember a lot of horizontal passing. They have a lot of "2nd and short" because of it. I'm not sure how I feel about the Beavs defending that type of pass. One thing I know: Foles doesn't take many seven step drops, and that's going to negate the Beavs' new-found pass rush.

The game will be decided by the Beavers defense, and it will come down to making sound, fundamental, one on one tackles in open space, in the flat. Now that Collins is manning half that area, I can feel comfortable if Arizona decides to go there. Starting Doctor as the other OLB would be a wise move. Paea & Co are going to have to do their damage in defending the run game. There won't be any sacks to be had with Arizona's 3 step drops. What you want to see from the front four is penetration and tackles for a loss on run plays. Grigsby is a solid runner, but injuries seemed to have left him less explosive.

On the offensive side of the ball, I'm concerned. Arizona's stats are inflated due to their first two opponents, but watching them versus Cal they can get after a DI offensive line, and Golden is a good corner. It's a precarious combination–Katz probably throws his first career interception this weekend.

Some key points:

• The Wildcats aren't an offensive juggernaut; the Beavers have a leaky defense.

Advantage: Wildcats

• The Beavers can score; Arizona can play defense.

Advantage: None/Stalemate.

• The Beavs return game (i.e. special teams) is playing out of their minds' right now.

Advantage: Beavers

So, to me this game comes down to (a) the Beavers' defense, specifically in the flat and (b) whether or not the return men can create good field position for the offense. The offense needs a short field.

Oregon State's confidence is riding high right now, which can tilt the scale. However, the Wildcats can match that confidence, and have other intangibles in their favor, such as two weeks preparation and a 4pm kickoff, the hottest part of the day.

I see this contest coming down to the wire. Do not be surprised to see the game go to overtime, or won/lost on a last second field goal or missed extra point. It's a pick 'em game, in my opinion, and I'm begrudgingly giving the edge to the home team.

24-23, Arizona

It's somewhat amazing how 3 measly points is the difference between further fan outrage and the tamed hope for a successful season.

There was a lot of redemption yesterday. Stephen Paea finally shut his mouth, and let his play do the talking. Keith Pankey made his first memorable play as a Beaver. The defense pressured the QB. And, both coordinators schemed solid games. It was especially refreshing to see Mark Banker utilize his personnel. The speed of Doctor and Collins on the field at the same time made a difference, even though Doctor had a hard go of it.

Without James Rodgers in the game, the offense had to get everyone involved, and you saw the results of that. Do the coordinators see the light and become more diverse? We'll have to wait to see. It's unfortunate that injury (Roberson and James Rodgers) had to occur before the staff were willing to entrust these skilled backups, but it should not come as a surprise. The coaches tendency to hone on one player per position, whether it be Quizz getting every carry, James receiving every pass, etc, is perhaps my biggest frustration. 

Moving on.

For four weeks now there's been a lot of criticism that Katz doesn't check down to Quizz enough. I saw two check downs yesterday that would have resulted in meaningful yards. Two. Let's not forget how frustrating it was to watch Lyle and Sean throw two yard passes 90% of the time back in 2007. My point being, it's not just about checking down for the sake of it, it's checking down when there is opportunity for good yardage. And I agree, he needs to improve at the latter. But let's not criticize the guy so much that he develops a complex and begins checking down when big plays are available down field. Learning how to check down is an organic process–let it take its course.

Moving on.

The biggest problem I saw yesterday, and this has been this program's Achilles heel under Riley, is the inability of his teams to finish off games. Over the last five years, the Beavers have been a great first quarter team, but then slowly fade as the game goes on, only to pick it up again in the fourth quarter, many times to secure the victory. The second and third quarter lulls need to be addressed. Why does the team continually lose focus once they get a lead? In my opinion, many times it's predictable, conservative play calling that is the culprit, and that falls squarely on the coaches. Young people have less and less attention span, so it's imperative to keep them interested and involved in the game. QuizZ dive left, Quizz dive right does the opposite.

Another point to address is the notion that the defense has arrived. That is simply false. What made them look good was the pressure they were able to get on Threet, which forced him into mistakes, but many of the same problems continued to plague the unit. For example, allowing close to 50% third down conversions (7/16), 100% 4th down conversions (2/2), 161 rushing yards for a 5.1 average, and let's not forget the continued lack of fundamentals (e.g. the tackling "effort" on Arizona State's first touch down). In short, there was a lot of good (6 sacks, 3 turnovers), but also much of the same old. Improvement does not equate to "arrival."

One final note I'd like to mention: the coaches need to understand when to use the red flag. After Saturday, my tally is 5 calls this season alone that had an above-average to excellent chance of being overturned. In the Boise State game, one of them resulted in 7 for the Broncos. Yesterday, they lucked out and ASU kicked the FG they would have gotten anyway, but not before first driving to the 1 yard line, and almost scoring a touchdown. That would have resulted in 4 additional points–enough to win the game. The lack of decisiveness and aggressiveness has become old. Do you remember the failed challenges (notably on the WR, D.J. Woods' fumble) last year versus Cincinnati? Not recognizing or seizing these opportunities makes the coaches look at best passive and at worst incompetent, and that is not being nit-picky or harshly critical–the broadcasters always mention it, too. Pac-10 officials are bad, and at some point a game is going to be lost over one of these (missed) challenges, if it already hasn't.

Use this post for your in-game comments, frustrations, ecstasy, etc.

Five key points I'll be looking at early on:

1. Do the Beavs come out of the tunnel fired up? They looked anemic before the Boise kickoff. Attitude is what's going to allow them to prevail in this game, because ASU has more talent. Further, will our geriatric fanbase be quiet and more concerned about people standing up in front of them, or are they going to get up and make some noise? Now that classes have begun, I expect a more electric atmosphere.

2. Ryan Katz–this game is set up perfectly for him to have success. Keep in mind Katz enrolled early and essentially has the experience of a Junior. If he doesn't click today, we can legitimately begin the Vaz discussion.

3. As with the last two games, 3rd downs on both sides of the ball will decide the game.

4. Watch the pass rush early on. If they aren't getting near Threet you can expect Hardin et al to look terrible again. You can also expect a blowout loss. Specifically keep an eye on Paea and watch if he's truly being doubled or if that is an excuse for his poor play–I'll bite my tongue and let you decide.

5. James Rodgers. First, does he play. Second, the Beavers' offense is very predictable with him in there–the ball is going one of two places 90% of the time. With Rodgers out, maybe that opens up. Don't get me wrong, I definitely want to see James out there, but there needs to be more diversity.

Have the booze ready, Beavlettes. I'm going with Gin, unsweetened iced tea, a slice of lemon, and a splash of 100% cranberry juice. It's low calorie and delectable. I call it the Angry Beaver. My lady Beav is making us a veggie pizza from scratch. Can't beat Saturday's in the fall, am I right?

From Wisconsin's rivals network:

Oak Ridge (N.C.) Military wide receiver Kenzel Doe is committed to Oregon State but he could end up at Wisconsin according to sources so keep an eye on that.

He also took a trip to Wisconsin without informing anyone.

He's a favorite of many fans on this site, so I thought this was big news.

Some more big news is that Tyrequek Zimmerman is being swayed by his good friend Jabral Johnson to decommit from Oregon State and commit to Arizona. While I don't believe this rumor–mainly because Arizona doesn't have a known offer to Zimmerman–they are known to be a package deal. Eggers is a good source, and he said both to OSU, so feel moderately confident in that for now. If Arizona officially offers, all bets are off. Actually, if that happens, look for Zimmerman to bolt.

You have to wonder how much of this is due to on the field performance. There are two schools' of thought on this: those who say a recruit will see that OSU needs help (i.e. immediate playing time), and those who believe a recruit with many options will go to the most prestigious, winning program. I fall into the latter camp. I think a lot of recruits are souring because of the team's performance. Do you think Johnson isn't in Zimmerman's ear talking about how embarrassing OSU looked on national TV? Meanwhile, Arizona is on the rise and quickly becoming a destination. Remember the days delusional Beaver fans called him Mike Stoopid? Yeah.

If you flip a coin 3 times with the results being 1 heads and 2 tails, you'd probably expect the 4th flip would be heads, correct? However, since the 4th flip is independent of prior events, the probability is, like all other coin flips, 50/50.

"Angry, why bring up esoteric crap like math? This is football!"

Good question.

Basically, to point out a fact that we fans sometimes forget: football games are independent events.

It would be easy to reason that since Arizona State has put up 500 yards a game in hanging with the big boys, and Oregon State has looked abysmal even in victory against a rebuilding little guy, that the Sun Devils will win the game. 

Well, for me this game comes down to psychology (what else is new?). On one hand we have the Beavers, who are absolutely desperate for a win. On the other, Arizona State, who are feeling like world beaters after playing well enough to beat two top 25 teams.

Here's an analogy: the Beavers are the bum who hasn't eaten (or had a "drink") in two weeks and sees you strolling down the street, whistling Dixie, and carrying a sack of leftovers from the Peacock. Arizona State, in this analogy, would be "you". Fat…satiated…not exactly looking for a meal. Who do you think wins a battle over them scraps?

The home crowd will be booing the Beavers' every failure, which should stoke the fire.

So I'm picking the Beavers, right?

Meh.

I guess?

I saw ASU, and their mobile QB, stalemate Wisconsin and have their way with Oregon (until the 7 turnovers were too much to overcome). Could the Beavs compete with either of those teams? No, I don't believe so, but football unlike mathematics is not transitive. Independent events, my friends, just like the coins.

Sure, ASU is bigger, stronger, and faster. The eyeball test tells me the game's ledger will read "L", but until the "psychological edge" argument fails me, I'm sticking with it. Now chant with me, Beavlettes: PSYCHOLOGICAL EDGE AND INDEPENDENT EVENTS, PSYCHOLOGICAL EDGE AND INDEPENDENT EVENTS! You can probably sense how much confidence I have in this one.

Beavs by the skin of their teeth.

27-24