All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second, it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident.
That’s a five-star quote if I’ve ever read one.
There’s a revolt brewing, angry beavlings. A Civil War; a fractured fan base. Fight the good fight.
File this one under “academics.”
I’ve been meaning to dispel the notion in Beaverland that Mike Riley is a great talent evaluator for some time. In this edition, I’ll look at all the 1, 2, 3, and 4-star busts Riley has evaluated and signed dating back to the 2006 and 2007 classes. Any later (i.e. 2008) and the player has not had adequate time to develop. I define a “bust” as a player who (a) is more than two years into his Beaver career who has not yet contributed nor shows signs of contributing in the near future or (b) has played but at a sub-par level. Players who left for missions and non-qualifiers are left off the list and not included in final percentages.
2006
****
None.
***
Tom Hansen
Ryan Pohl
**
Keo Camat
Kaulin Krebs
Timi Oshinowo
Suaesi Tuimaunei
Michael Hunt
Keith Robertson
* and fewer
Chris Johnson
Totals:
Failure Rate: 9/26 or 35%
Success Rate: 17/26 or 65%
Comments: As noted above, LDS players like the Unga brothers, Mau Nomani, and Geoff Garner were left off the list completely and not included in the 26 (i.e. class total would have been in the 30s with all these players).
Final grade: 63% is a “D” on any exam.
2007
****
David Ross
***
Ryan McCants
Will Darkins
Latu Moala
Ahmed Mokhtar
Sioeli Nau
Keith Pankey
Kevin Frahm
**
Kevin Pankey
Carl Sommer
Anthony Watkins
Kyle Bell
Michael Cole
Jesse Fifita
Danzel Issac
Leaualofa Liilii
Tonu Tuimalealiifano
Rory Ross
Colby Prince
Totals:
Failure Rate: 19/29 or 66%
Success Rate: 10/29 or 34%
Comments: Non-qualifiers such as Jon Ione, Jake Gelakoska, Reggie Dunn etc were left off the list. I tried to do this with the 2006 list as well, but frankly I can’t remember the plight of every player (e.g. Danzel Issac), so if I missed one let me know and I’ll adjust the percentage as necessary.
Final Grade: 34% is a low F.
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What is interesting to note is that over the two year period examined Riley Failed (51%) more often than he succeeded (49%). That percentage essentially equates to a coin toss–a low, failing grade by all standards. As you can see, many of the “turned stones” have nothing underneath them. Please, let’s dispel this myth that Riley is a better talent evaluator than myself, yourself, the scouting sites, or other head coaches. All of our opinions, analysis, and judgments of these athletes have just as much merit as those of a head coach who is wrong half the time. Let’s drop the slogan “in Riley we trust” from the Beaver lexicon.
Perusing the net, I’m once again embarrassed to be a Beaver fan.
That my brethren are cheering the suspension of Masoli only shows that they tremble and quake at the mere presence of the man who shredded consecutive Rose Bowl bids. Hey, I’m scared of Masoli as well–he is dangerous, borderline unstoppable in the spread offense. That being said, when the Ducks come to Corn Valley next season I’d like a crack at them with their best players. To be the best you must beat the best, and for that reason I’d like to see the Ducks at full strength. You can’t have a changing of the guard if one of said guards isn’t there to change out.
Now, let’s not confuse what I am saying here with legal matters. Masoli is guilty and should be kicked off the team permanently. Same with James–Kelly was both inconsistent and lenient, and this favoritism will lead to deeper problems for him down the road. But as a Beaver fan I should not want players kicked off the team. If I do, it only shows that I’m deathly afraid of this opponent. What the reaction should be is this: “What they did is illegal, and therefore they should not be afforded the privilege of playing football under scholarships paid for by Oregon residents, but this really sucks because I’d love to beat these guys at full strength next December.” Instead, Beaver fans are ecstatic that they now have a chance at winning the Civil War while also taking the low road and reveling in the current Duck misery. It screams (classless) little brother, and frankly, I’m tired of playing that role, which is present in every athletic and academic endeavor the university pursues.
If the Beavers do win the Civil War this coming season, the feat will be tarnished in these eyes. Until the Beavers beat the best they’ll play second fiddle, and that’s a chair the old, tattered Beaver fan who lived through “28 years” is content sitting in, but the new generation of fan is coming on and we have higher expectations of what Corvallis can and should be. This is not your mom and dad’s generation you old, dying farts. Stop cheering on felonies because it’s beneficial to your inferior football team and instead criticize your own team so it’s better based on merit and mettle rather than an opponent’s attrition.
You might ask: what’s the big deal about a backup punter transferring, Angry?
Well, I will tell you.
I saw Allen punt in person a handful of times, and he was light-years better than Johnny Hekker. We’re talking punts that went above the stadium, ala an NFL leg. His only downside was consistency.
It begs the question: why would Riley spend so much time developing an equally inconsistent punter with a worse leg in Johnny Hekker? Anyone who watched pregame kicking could see Allen was the man.
I’ll be curious to follow Allen’s career at Louisiana Tech. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t make the NFL, where as Johnny Hekker has no shot. To me this is as egotistical as Mike Riley gets. He wants to have a “great story” and “uncover a gem”…a high school QB turned punter. If Riley can get him to be all-conference by senior year it will continue his reputation as a talent evaluator. The problem with that logic is that any coach could turn an average athlete into an all-conference punter if given four years. Most don’t do it because it’s a large investment with little payoff. Hekker was a liability last year. Do not mention the Sun Bowl or any false positive statistics–he was a liability and has been a liability since he joined the team. Riley has not once used the one interesting facet of Hekker: his ability to throw on a fake punt.
The bottom line is that Ryan Allen was the man for this job and because of egotistical stubbornness Mike Riley let him walk. Another questionable decision. These are really beginning to add up. Little roster tweaks like this are a big deal. Riley puts practically zero emphasis on special teams and other than lucking into Alexis Serna it’s come back to bite him (e.g. Civil War, Stanford 2008, etc). The program is worse off today.
In other news, Moevao was denied an additional year. I don’t think any of us can make a good argument against that decision and it’s what we all expected. Personally, I’m glad to see the reigns handed over to a player with more upside.
I have no confidence in the Beavers winning this type of game. That is, a game that matters; a game that takes the respective sport to the next level.
On Friday we watched the baseball team lose this exact type of game. Yes, the baseball team was once elite, but start accepting that the CWS teams were five years ago now.
The past two Decembers we saw the football team lose this exact type of game, twice.
Now I’m supposed to believe the basketball team is ready to win a game that takes the program over the hump? No. The Beavs always fail in these “take the next step” type of games. Never mind a sporadic solid performance; until the Beavers consistently perform when the pressure is truly on I’ll continue to bet against them. There’s no reason they can’t or shouldn’t win this game, but because of all the psychological issues that come with attending Oregon State and playing athletics for Oregon State, they won’t.
71-59, Dawgs