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Beaver Baseball: UCLA @ Oregon State

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This is a big weekend for the baseball team. They can declare themselves contenders, or fold like pretenders. The game’s first pitch is about 30 minutes away as I write this, and I have to say, this is about as psyched as I get for a regular season series.

First let’s look at how the teams compare in the vital statistics:

Team batting| .347 vs .271. Advantage: UCLA

Team slugging| .510 vs .408. Advantage: UCLA

Team OBP| .429 vs .380. Advantage: UCLA

Runs per game (offense)| 8 vs 7.2 Advantage: UCLA (if there’s a reason for Beaver fans to hope, it’s that this number is relatively equal).

Team ERA| 2.43 vs 2.94 Advantage: UCLA. A statistic you’d think would be won by the Beavers is not.

Opponents BA (pitching)| .192 vs .228. Advantage: UCLA

Fielding %| 9.72 vs 9.70 Advantage: UCLA

UCLA has the edge in every statistic that matters, but to me, the most glaring mismatch is that of slugging percentage. In college baseball, extra-base hits win games, while peppering the outfield with the occasional single does not.

Just like the football and basketball programs, the Beavers baseball team is not ready to win this kind of series. Though to be fair, they are more capable than the other two programs. Earlier this season I said the Beavers would win three-games series (i.e. 3-0 or 2-1) versus weak or equal competition and lose series (i.e. 0-3 or 1-2) versus elite competition. I’m holding steady with that prognostication, and thinking that at home, the Beavers find a way to eke out one victory (think something close, like a 4-3 score). After all, what statistics do not show is that the Beav’s baseball team has the best coach at Oregon State, and Oregon State has the best  coach in college baseball. That’s worth at least one win, right?

Projected Starting Lineup

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Last year after the Cincy game I nailed down what the starting lineup should be, and a few weeks later it came to fruition and the season improved greatly. This year, I’m going to put it in writing even earlier. You guys can judge my ability to see (or not see) talent; I’ll lay it on the line for the sake of good discussion.

QB–Ryan Katz

RB–Quiz

FB–Darkins

WRs– (1) Rodgers, (2) Wheaton, (3) Nichols (slot), (4) Catchings/Bishop

TE–(1) Joe H. (2) Camp

OL–Phillip, Pohl, Alex L., J. Andrews, Remmers/Enger

DE–(1) Miller (2) Taylor Henry

DT–(1) Paea (2) Oldander

MLB–Tony Wilson

OLB–Dwight Roberson

OLB–Doctor

LB (backup)–Akuna

CB–Hardin

CB–Poyer

CB (nickle)–Dockery

SS–Collins

FS–Mitchell

KR–Keynan Parker and Jordan Poyer (save James’ legs/reduce injury; these guys can do an equal job).

PR–James Rodgers

P–I guess it’s Hekker since we forced our best punter to transfer.

Barring injury, this should be the starting lineup come kickoff. Will it be?  I doubt it. I have a feeling we’re going to see an Unga or two thrown in, Dockery in the starting lineup, Grant Johnson on the line, maybe even Burke. I’m of the opinion you (almost) always take talent over experience and “coach up” the greenhorns, but we’re going to see a less talented lineup on opening day because Mike Riley prefers experience. Plain and simple. Let’s just see how long it takes him to make the corrections and put the right players on the field.

Some Random Notes

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Even with spring ball beginning it’s a slow time of year. There isn’t much to write about right now, so I’ll share the notes and observations I’ve collected over the past few days while thumbing through all things OSU.

1. Michael Phillip will have his knee scoped. Rumor is he might need minor surgery. Clearly this is the most disconcerting news from the past few days. You hear one report from source x and another from source y, so who knows? The fact that most agree he won’t return until the fall is a bad sign. It means the injury, whatever it is, is worse than originally thought. The worst part about this is that it’s another position with no depth–Wilder McAndrews now steps in, and he is, simply put, not a good player. I once calculated how much money (in scholarships) OSU has paid McAndrews per down played, and it was close to 10k…that was last year. Probably close to 15k now. Scary-bad investment. I’m sure it will be a day or two before he breaks his arm, and then we’re on to another elite talent in Timi O.

2. The baseball team is treading water. Yes, they took 2 of 3 in the Pac-10 opening series, and it was on the road…bravo. But USC is one of the weaker teams in the conference. My observation early on that the pitching is just good, but not great, is holding true. Good pitching, average-to-good defense, and weak hitting–I’m not sure this is the recipe for success in this conference. I expect a frustrating string of series loses vs the upper echelon with said loses averaging out [with wins] against weaker foes.

3. We’re 3 days into camp, and I’m tired of reading about the “QB controversy”…we just finished going through this with the last batch. Can we please settle on a QB and go with him? Anyone else feel exhausted by the yin/yang of our QB situation the past 4 years?

4. We signed a guy named Ryan Handford. He’s another “under the radar” recruit who I’m told is a late bloomer. After watching his film, he does show some promise. When running he looks like ex-safety Bryan Payton, and when hitting he reminds me of Coy Francies. The curious thing is that the Beavers need help at other positions (i.e. DE, LB) much more than CB. Another funny note about this signing was reported by Cliff Kirkpatrick, who wrote that the Beavers offered Handford because they “liked his Youtube video.”

5. That’s about it, anything else you’d like to discuss go about it in the comments. This Angry Beaver is off to celebrate his birthday.

Spring Practice

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As the Fresh Prince astutely noted in 1987, girls ain’t nothing but trouble.

Am I right, Matt LaGrone and David Pa’aluhi?

Pa’aluhi, a star linebacker, and the one LB of the current corp who could make an NFL impact, quit football to go home and pursue a military career in order to support his girlfriend and child. Matt LaGrone followed suit and left for Reno to be with his wife and daughters.

The problem I have with these decisions aren’t football related. The team will recover. Tony Wilson looks like a very good player; Taylor Henry, equally adroit.

My issue is with these women. Why are they not willing to stand by their men and support them as they pursue a dream? Granted, I have no idea of the details, but I do know LaGrone’s wife said she did not want to move to Corvallis. If I were pursuing a dream, and the woman who mothered my children said that, I’d probably be done with her. No, I know I would. Not only is she dictating this man’s life, but she’s being short-sighted in passing up (potentially) thousands of dollars in an NFL career. Now she has a man in Reno with no college degree, no possible NFL career, and presumably no prospects. And Matt Lagrone agreed to this. Shame on him.

Pa’aluhi is a tougher case. Fewer details, military “dreams”…(did he always dream of his or did he simply wake up and decide he needed the money?). Tough call, a more sensitive situation, and with fewer details. I’m not going to grill this guy as much. Being from Hawaii, at least Pa’aluhi girl would have had a culture to leave behind…it’s more understandable if she doesn’t want to move, and on top of that Pa’aluhi has some options.

But boy are these men whipped. Unless football wasn’t a dream of theirs they’ll wind up regretting this long after these girls are out of their lives–let’s face it boys, the divorce rate is astronomical and these don’t exactly sound like healthy, supportive relationships. Unless they’re trying to play the “good guy”/”real man” card, which is nothing more than a euphemism for guilt/pressure to support their kids. But the best support for those kids would be a loving, understanding wife and an NFL career.

As far as spring ball, this is the only real news worth discussing so far. I don’t think the QB battle is much of one unless Katz goes down. Lalich simply looks out of place and uninspired. Katz has the “it” factor the position has lacked since Jonathan Smith, or maybe Matt Moore’s senior year.

Beavs Sign Home & Home w/BYU

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What do you do if you’re a smoker dying of lung cancer?

Ask the Oregon State Beavers and they’ll likely tell you to light one up and take a drag.

A team that, since 2006, has gotten drubbed in OOC games by Penn State, Boise State, and Cincinnati (twice), is now looking to add to that momentum by inking deals with TCU, Boise State, Wisconsin, and BYU over the next two years.

Good or bad?

I have to say, I like the devil-may-care scheduling. To be fearless and believe you can play with the big boys is the first step in that self-fulfilling prophecy ringing true.

My question is this: do the Beavers actually believe they can win these games or are they just intriguing money grabs? Using history as an indicator, it’s hard to believe Riley & friends believe they’re going to come out of these games looking good, especially if they’re on ESPN/prime time (a slot they only thrive in versus familiar PAC-10 foes).

I know fans will be jacked up for these games, at least until they kickoff (and the drubbing begins!). That’s when we’ll hear the complaints that Bob D should have scheduled Montana, Idaho, Portland State, or a directional vocational school…just like the SEC does. It’s a valid argument, but if you believe it then make it now. Personally I think it’s interesting that the Beavers are taking this uber-aggressive approach. They haven’t been able to deliver the fanbase a BCS game for some time, and some of these games (see TCU) will have that feel. Even if it doesn’t make college football sense as defined by the SEC, it’s exciting, right?