Let me first say that I’m psyched for this game for two reasons:

1. I’m going to it.

2. An outside shot at the Rose Bowl is on the line every week from this point forward.

Assuming the Beavs handle both Washington schools, fans need to root for:

a. 2 Arizona losses

b. 1 USC loss

c. Win out and beat Oregon

The fewer of those things that happen, the less likely the Beavers earn a top tier bowl (if they don’t land in at least the Holiday Bowl, they likely drop to the Las Vegas Bowl since the Sun took them last year).

As far as this weeks’ game and opponent, I like the Beavers in this game, but the -11 line is too much. We’re likely looking at a 28-24 type affair. The defense is much improved since transitioning to the lineup we all craved (i.e. LaGrone, Miller), but personally I’m not ready to anoint their arrival as a group we can count on down in and down out. Their susceptibility to blowing assignments and giving up the big play is still omnipresent.

The Beavers have the best pass offense in the conference, and Washington is 9th in defending the pass. This screams a big day for Canfield, but weather looks to be a mitigating factor. Right now the forecast is Wed-Friday rain, tapering off Saturday (30% chance of rain). High temperature for gameday is 48 degress. Those are not ideal passing conditions, so expect Quiz to get the rock often and turn this into a ball control, time of possession game rather than an aerial assault.

Jake Locker is 2nd in the league in passing behind only Canfield and we’ve seen his running ability for years now, so expect the guy to make some plays and keep his team in the game. In the end, I think the Beavers ride their wave of new-found confidence and build upon it by winning a close one. And building upon confidence and refining execution are the most important tasks at this point in the season with a deadly Oregon squad looming.

As noted, Beavers 28 Washingon 24

Bring the rain gear and load a fresh battery in the pacemaker.

Happily, I am going on vacation tomorrow. Sadly, I’ll be on the road Saturday and likely miss the game. Anyone know if the game will be broadcast in Vegas?

As far as who will win this game, I’ve got nothing. Not the slightest inclination.

I see a scenario with Cal jumping out early, Best gets some gashing runs, but then Cal will go into a lull and the Beavs offense comes to life. Also see a scenario where Best goes over 200, Canfield regresses, and Cal’s speed dominates the Beavers. It’s a coin toss. I do think the Beavs have an advantage in the return game this week, so maybe look for a TD from special teams or at least a 50 yard return or two. A top 25 ranking is on the line for the 3rd time this season. Three strikes and you’re out, Beavs.

On a side note, I’ll be up at the Washington game if anyone wants to get together. Also, you guys should make some good comments and predictions to make up for my lackluster effort this week.

The spread offense is the scheme of the present and future. What most people don’t realize is that it’s also an offense of the past, dating back to TCU’s Dutch Meyer’s book entitled “Spread Formation Football” written in 1954. If you want to include option offenses into the definition of spread, and my belief is that you should, as Georgia Tech runs this version of the spread to this day, it dates back even further. Many fans call the spread a gimmick, believing it a sexy trend concocted by Urban Meyer in his days with Utah. But the fact of the matter is that the spread has been around at least half a century. What is new is that coaches of the past ten years are understanding the mismatches they can create using the spread, and so it is quickly replacing the pro-style offense as the preferred formation of (modern) college football. Looking at the AP top 25, twelve of those teams run the spread and thirteen run a pro-style offense. Teams like Ohio State have a hybrid, mainly due to personnel (i.e. Pryor), so really it’s split down the middle right now. Also, TCU isn’t officially listed as a spread offense, but from what I’ve seen they run a “spread pass” much like Texas.

Interestingly, there’s only one team running a pro-style offense in the top 5 and that’s Alabama. The other four run some version of a spread offense. If you expand the analysis to the top 10, six of those teams run a spread, but don’t be surprised if that number is seven after the BCS rankings are released tomorrow, as Penn State is #11 in the AP but could easily be in the top 10 BCS rankings. Georgia Tech runs the most unique version, with the triple option. They are the only BCS team running that offense, and it is highly effective. 48 of 120 DI schools run the spread at least 75% of the time. Just glancing at the top 25, it seems the coaches with NFL experience have been most resistant to implementing the spread. Nick Saban (Miami Dolphins), Mike Riley (Chargers), Dave Wannstedt (Dolphins et al), Pete Carroll (Jets, Patriots), Charlie Weiss (Patriots), Les Miles (Cowboys), etc. It’s interesting. Coincidence?

Anyway, I looked into this because the Duck’s spread option impresses me. It seems unstoppable so long as the QB has good speed. Beaver fans deal with the Duck’s prolific offense by throwing pejoratives to the wind, calling it a one-trick pony, a gimmick, a fluke etc. I don’t see it that way. I see it as a great way to create mismatches, and mismatches lead to touchdowns. As far as the spread not preparing athletes for the pros: I don’t think it’s Oregon’s or Oregon State’s job to be an NFL factory. Their job is to field the best teams they can at their level of competition. I’d love to see the Beavers implement the spread into their offense. With Sean Canfield behind center you can’t do that, but with Ryan Katz…maybe. We’ve seen the Wildcat, so the old, conservative Riley is opening his mind to some modern possibilities. I mean come on, if Joe Paterno can embrace the spread anyone can. The idea here is to bridge the gap. If a staff doesn’t have an uber-recruiter who can land elite athletes in Corvallis, then that talent deficit has to be made up for somehow. Bringing your “lunch pail” and hiring excellent position coaches (sans Keith Heywood) only goes so far; out-scheming (aka out-thinking) the opponent is a much better way to approach this particular problem.