I’ve seen The Tree a lot. Everyone knows about their RB, but they’re pretty formidable on the offensive line as well. An area they excel every game is special teams, specifically kick returns. So, how do the Beavs match up?

1. QB–Luck is as good as Canfield and 3 years his junior. Scary. But experience gives us a slight edge here. Advantage, Beavs.

2. RB–Gerhart is great, our DL and LBs are average. Quiz is very good, but our o-line is below average. Advantage, Tree.

3. WR–Unlike in the past, Stanford has skill here. But, in terms of route-running, blocking, etc. Advantage, Beavs.

4. OL–This one’s as clear as a limpid pond: Advantage, Tree.

5. DL–Tree has the advantage here, too, from what I’ve seen. They were getting after Skinner in the Wake game. They have 11 sacks, which is 23rd in the nation. We have 3, which is 8th worst. Advantage, Tree.

6. LBs–Roberson and Kristick are better than anything Stanford has. Advantage, Beavs.

7. CBs–Mitchell is better than anyone in Stanford’s secondary. With Hardin coming on strong I actually like our unit slightly better. Advantage, Beavs.

8. Special Teams–Stanford excels here, average 41.1 yards per kick return. The WR who returns kicks for them is a very good all around playmaker, both receiving and returning (3td). Much like James Rodgers. Stanford’s kicker is 5-7 and Kahut is 7-9. That’s a wash. Both punters are shaky, that’s a wash as well. I think our kick coverage is better than Stanford’s, but overall we’re just shaky on special teams (missed extra points, not fielding punts, shanking punts at inopportune times, etc). Advantage, Tree.

9. Home field–This should be a no-brainer, but with the lame crowds of late who knows. Still: Advantage, Beavs.

The key to this game is the Beaver offensive line. Stanford’s weakness is at LB…if the road graders can pave the way, Quiz will scamper past the LBs and into the secondary early and often, controlling the clock, sustaining drives, and keeping the ball from Gerhart. Will that happen? No. While the OL took a step forward last week, it’s more likely that we’ll continue to have key false starts and other frustrating penalties. Further, I don’t see us touching Luck–his offensive line is just too good. I’d like to believe the defensive pressure in Tempe wasn’t just a byproduct of ASU’s line, but I just can’t convince myself that is true. Stanford converts 3rd downs at a 48% rate against teams with a pass rush…if this week’s fans are anything like those at the Cincy game, a couple conversations and their backs will be broken and their butts in their seats.

27-20, Stanford.

First of all, I predicted a loss because I’ve been wrong the past few weeks, noticed the streak,  and prayed that streak would continue. Luckily, it did. In short, I’m predicting loses the rest of the season.

The good: some diversity in the play calling. Sweeps, vertical passing, etc. The offensive line blocked better. I still see Grant Johnson and Mike Remmers missing blocks left and right, but at least none of them killed us in this game.  On defense, I liked what I saw–in limited time, granted–from Taylor Henry. Good edge rush, good speed, got the lone sack of the game. Also, Hardin looks excellent in coverage. Not just the interception but all around coverage. Another player who stood out at times was Lagrone. There were plays where he was completely over-matched, but at other times he was very disruptive.  I think a DL of Henry, Terry, Paea and DT2 (whoever it may be, they’re all equally ineffective) would be the best combination moving forward. A CB lineup of Clark and Hardin with Dockery as a nickle back would be ideal as well. Collins was definitely better than #28 in coverage tonight, but like most of you saw, he isn’t a great player at this point. Lance Mitchell again showed that he is the best player on this defense.

The Bad: Yes, more diverse play calling, but the sweeps and deep balls still went to the Rodgers brothers. There were times where it was clear as a limpid pond that the ball was going to be a handoff to Quiz, a bubble screen to James, or a fly sweep. I sat here, drinking wine out of the bottle, dribbling down my shirt-less chest, saying to myself, “here comes play xyz”…sure enough…even the Canfield int was predictable. The Beavs lose focus for a quarter each game. Tonight it was the 3rd quarter. Usually they come out strong, and it’s the 2nd and 3rd quarters where they suddenly get worse ADD than a young Japanese boy playing Super Famicon. But, they fought through it. A minor peeve of mine was hanging off twice to Quiz before halftime. The guy does not need to take the brunt of those meaningless caries–it’s why we have backups. Riley’s choice to go for the 53 yard FG was also terrible coaching. Otherwise, solid if not glamorous game.

On deck: Stanford.

First series: More of the same old…few good plays, then the Quiz run for a loss and a sack and a deep ball out of desperation. Followed by another Hekker shank. Can we recruit special teams players? Mike, they do make up 1/3 of the game.

Second series: Again, nice play calling, good job of taking advantage of the ASU muff and getting 7 instead of settling for 3. Glad to see the offensive line able to gel for 3 plays and allow us the relatively easy score (i.e. given great field position). Also, was that a Beaver in the backfield on ASU’s 3rd down pass???!  ASU has major line problems…that early pressure is a good sign.

Series three: Nice play call on the pitch to Quiz. Why not do that more often and put him in space? He’s a small guy with great cutting ability…would do better on those sweeps than in-between the tackles. Less abuse with the ability to run out of bounds if needed. Hey, bottom line is that this is better play calling. Better late than never…? Beavs usually start well, so it’s maintain focus time…

Fourth Series: more predictability…fly sweep to James, screen pass to Quiz. Yawn.  If the coaches want to gain yards on these plays they probably shouldn’t call them 80% of the time. I see these plays in my dreams.  Surely they are no surprise to the defense–last year we were gaining chunks on those plays…this year 5 yards max. Nice quick release and pass from Canfield to Adeniji. Great pass from Canny to James…nice concentration on the catch.  Seems the Beavs are getting the best results from plays they rarely call. Sign to Landsdorf and Riley: MIX IT UP.

5. Maybe Harden hasn’t been in the system long enough to know he shouldn’t turn his head and make a play on the ball? Nice Int. Doesn’t amount to much. Hekker redeems himself. Beavs playing well in all facets so far, but we all remember this same scenario in 2007.

6. Love that 42 yarder to Adeniji. Pretty ball. Overall impression is that the offensive line is playing better than last week. It’s allowing those routes to develop. Lagrone is our best DE right now, so he should start or at least see the field more. He had the safety against Cincy and now a few big plays in this game.  Maintain focus, Beavs. That is the key right now. Bad call by Riley going for a FG before the half. Even if that kick was good the decision is stupid. The announcers had the right analysis–ASU can’t move the ball, don’t give them decent field position. What a bone-head move. I’d rather see them go for the conversion than kick that FG. The odds are better of converting than Kahut converting from that distance.  Didn’t come back to burn us, but man, Mike, if you’re going to be aggressive go for the higher percentage play. Also, why hand the ball off to Quiz and have him pounded 2 times before the half on a meaningless drive? Isn’t  that why we have a backup?

7. Anyone else sensing the typical lack of focus after half time?  Sometimes it’s the 2nd quarter, sometimes the 3rd, but it’s very typical of OSU to be flat for at least 1/4 of the game, in which time they either (a) let the other team back in the game, like tonight, or (b) lose the game. As I type this, TD Arizona State. Here we go. My guess: a few predictable runs to Quiz on our next drive, maybe a Canfield INT.

8. “Maybe a Canfield INT” !!! What did I tell you?  God this team is predictable. Oh, and the play before it, the ever predictable “bubble screen” to James for a 5 yard loss–it’s no wonder…if a blogger can predict plays surely a college defensive coordinator can. This game is a loss.

9. Cool, TD Adeniji–this should ice the game. I love when my Beav loss predictions are wrong.

10. Overall, a lot of things wrong with this game…post game analysis to follow.