1. Our offensive line cost us this game. Specifically, Mike Remmers:

a. Holding penalty on #50 on OSU’s second FG drive. Play would have resulted in a first down inside the 20. Instead, we backed it up 15 and settled for FG instead of TD.

b. Pass to James Rodgers before halftime. Would have been a 30 yard gain. Instead, backed up 15. Drive stalls. Cincy gets the ball back and scores 7.  Potential 10 to 14 point swing.

2. Out coached by Cincinnati. For example, our safety, #28, got burned for two TDs due to 5 WR sets and mismatches. Cincy’s play was an interesting juxtaposition, making our offense look archaic in modern college football. We’re one notch above the wishbone. OSU fans will say that we run a pro offense that prepares athletes for the NFL. The reality is that 99% of these players aren’t going to the NFL and we’re a college program.

3. We should have gone for a TD at 21-15. The way Cincy was moving, that FG was meaningless both at the time and in retrospect.

4. To put it nicely, the crowd was absolutely pathetic. It looks like the game didn’t sell out (equally pathetic), but the noise level was just not there. Simple 8 yard passes in the flat were back-breakers for this crowd. Sometimes they’re good, but today we were dealt a bad/quiet assembly of human beings. So much for a 12th defender.

5. I wish we had a coach like Kelly. The dude was full throttle the entire game. Even challenging Catchings’ [clear] fumble with 50 seconds left. Is it me or does Catchings fumble an awful lot?

6. Defense played well in the first quarter. James Dockery showed me something. Tim Clark even had a good game. The safeties killed us in coverage, but it’s not completely their fault since the front four only pressured Pike 3 times the entire game. People kept saying, “Angry, we didn’t even blitz against PSU, we can get to the QB.”  No.  What did we learn? The bottom line: don’t fuck with Angry. What I say is real talk.

7. Didn’t like Cincinnati’s hubris. I’m going to route against these guys the rest of the year due to the way they handled themselves. Gilyard shoving his helmet in the camera coupled with his post game comments. That dude is a clear douche. The Cincy fans were cool and respectful leading up to the game…the fan base seems like decent people…but their school’s players proved to be classless gamins.

8. Canfield holds on to the ball too long. Riley is in a predicament since Canfield has a pro frame, yet Lyle is clearly better for this team (i.e. quicker decisions, better leader, etc). We win this game if Lyle started it.

9. On a positive note, the FSN announcers were fantastic. Not sure how or why that happened, but those guys knew their shit and were spot on. On an extremely negative note: we had a bunch of national recruits at this game. Ruh roh.

10. Congrats to Cincy fans. Beaver fans, we’re in for a frustrating season. It’s clear at this point the Beavs will win a few to raise our spirits, only to crush them, making the fall harder. Better load up on the gin.

The more I hear talking heads clamoring about the massive beat-down Cincy is going to lay on the Beavs, the more skeptical I become. If there’s one thing I’ve learned from sports betting, it’s that when picking teams that are similar in talent, the majority is usually wrong. Vegas seems to agree with me here, favoring the Beavers slightly.

This game is fascinating because despite being 2-0, neither of these teams have beaten anyone significant. Having grown up in New Jersey, I know for a fact that Rutgers is tantamount to UNLV, and the two FCS teams Cincy and the Beavs beat up on are also, for all intents and purposes, equal in ability. So the question becomes: what do we really know about either of these teams? I contend we know little. But there are two things I do know, and they are going to be the key to this Saturday’s game:

1. Cincinnati has more experienced players than we do.

2. Cincinnati has confidence right now because of *how* they played against their opponents.

Let’s face it, the Beavers should have won both their games in more convincing fashion. The fact that they didn’t has to be weighing on their confidence. Cincy is coming into this game believing they can score on anyone at any time. That kind of confidence, bordering on hubris, is scary. And I think it’s the reason why, in the final analysis, Beaver fans fear this opponent.

The key to winning this particular game is 100% mental–reduce Cincinnati’s confidence. Make them question their talent, make them question the opponents they beat up on, make them fear a long, somber trip home. How to do this?  Hit Tony Pike early, jam Gilyard at the line, and play a “downhill”, aggressive style of defense. I don’t think we win this game reacting rather than acting. On offense, ball control and tempo will be key. This game should feature at least a few play action passes deep down the field. This is the time to open the playbook, get creative, and build off all those Quiz carries.

Some other keys to winning:

1. Crowd must be the 12th defender–put down the joint and get to the game.

2. Beavers must wear their orange jerseys–if you look good, you feel good, and if you feel good, you play well.

3. Trick play–look for Hekker to finally throw a pass in this game if the Beavers are punting anywhere near the 50 yard line…

In the end, I think Vegas knows more than the casual fan. They’re favoring the Beavers -3.5. Personally, I’d call this a “pick ‘em” game, and I believe it’ll be decided by a field goal and go down to the wire. So, while a betting man should take Cincy…

31-28, Oregon State.