My “star” system works like this:
- I’m using + instead of stars this year because it’s easier than uploading the image.
- Recruits are listed in order, so if two guys have three + marks, the one higher on my list is the better prospect.
- I give +’s on my belief the player will be all-conference before graduation. Five +’s means definite all-conference player, four +’s means 80% chance of being all conference, 3-stars = 60% chance, etc. The % would decrease as you go down the list. E.g. The top 3-star has a 60% chance, the next guy a bit less, etc. For example, I think Weinreich has a 60% chance to be all-conference, Josh Mitchell less, at 55%, Gilmore less at 50%, etc.
- This is just one man’s opinion. I think over time these rankings will be more accurate than Rivals or Scout, but we’ll see.
Isaac Seumalo +++++
Gavin Andrews +++++
Caleb Smith ++++
Grant Bays ++++
Chris Brown ++++
Garrett Weinreich +++
Josh Mitchell +++
Malik Gilmore +++
Chase Eldredge +++
Dustin Stanton +++
Brent VanderVeen +++
Kendell Hill +++
Tyler Hasty +++
Stanley Hasiak +++
Zack Robinson +++
Chris Miller +++
Garrett Owens +++
Joel Skotte ++
Cyril Noland ++
Dyllon Mafi ++
Caleb Saulo ++
Rommel Mageo +
Cade Cowdin +
Noke Tago +
Angry….have you gone back and ranked any past classes in this way, to see how it compares with the Scout or Rivals ranking at that time?
Obviously you have to factor character in, and a flake like Cliff Harris would do less in your ranking than in one based on pure athleticism and ability.
I did last year’s class. Look under “rankings”
It’s too early too tell how well I did.
i was watching a little of the late afternoon sports show on 1080 the fan today and Jason Scukanec was talking about how he spent a some time watching tape of some of the Oregon State guys. Scukanec, a former BYU and NFL O-lineman came away particularly impressed with Garrett Weinreich’s tape saying he looks like a D1 level player now, and looks like he’s ready to compete with the big boys. Looking forward to seeing if his assessment is correct.
Yeah… while I agree that Andrews should be where he is, I think Weinreich should be right there with him.
I would also raise Hasty and Noland +1.
And I would remove the ratings on the Samoans altogether, making a category which reserves the right to evaluate them once someone gets some eyes on them.
I personally think Skotte and Saulo will be good players (say, better than Roberson at the very least but with more upside). But there always seems to be two-deeps enough to keep all but great LB’s off the All Pac teams. So, in this context I would agree.
And I would give Mitchell a +1 as a DL. Knowing our coaches, he will stay on the OL… until he’s wasted two years not working on DL technique, rather, working on OL stuff.
After all, DT is not a position of concern.
I like Weinreich a lot. Thought long and hard about his ranking. Just didn’t look as dominant as Andrews (who pancaked everyone, every play). This line class is awesome. Gotta say.
Agree on the O-line class. Hopefully they add a few every year so we don’t have the boom/bust cycle.
Brilliant!
Super Bowl
Right on, see the link:
http://www.networkworld.com/community/node/79724
I keep watching Skotte’s film trying to figure out why I don’t see what many do.
I do like his intensity…it shows even on film. Lateral movement looks so herky jerky, though, and he looks susceptible to over pursuing. He’s more north/south and that also really limits his upside imo.
I think it’s his vision and feel for the game. He runs to the point of attack rather than slide in and out of holes. So yes, he’s stiff as a board. But he also hits like a 4X4. Because he runs to the point of attack, he blows up blocks before they’re set, closing holes before they’re open. He’s a point A to point B type of player. And he just has a knack for knowing where point B will be.
This type of player has one drawback. He is probably going to be susceptible to injury.
I’m super curious to see how he pans out, because he’s polarizing.
See, more than injury, I think he’ll be susceptible to misdirection (read: the Ducks/spread) because he is so stiff and north/south and seems to commit to a spot so quickly.
He may be. But what I was saying is that he doesn’t simply commit to a spot. He seems to always commit to THE spot.
I think that has to do with him having more between the ears than the average bear. I’m willing to bet he’s a gym rat as well as a book worm.
Bed time.
No coach rumors yet. I’ve been scratching my head over this one, and I just don’t know who it could be. Long time NFL player and coach? Someone mentioned Johnnie Lynn the other day. He fits. The only other guy I can think of is Herm Edwards.
Maybe “longtime” means two or three years… or a long playing career and a short coaching career like a Rod Woodson or a Cris Dishman.
Tomorrow I guess.
Not sure how the delay is positive. Either 1) no one wants the job and Riley is creeping down his alluded- to list or 2) it’s someone that wasn’t willing to bail prior to signing day, or 3) a coach who needs persuading. It’s such a characteristic thumb-twiddle. Having said that, wouldn’t it be wonderful if it’s somone who knocks our socks off?
That’s a good post…………for a girl! Haha. I think your socks are safe.
Get ready for another 3 years of overall mediocrity. Granted, there will be some offensive fireworks (if the play calling becomes less predictable), but no Alamo or Rose Bowls in the near future…
I am huge on Andrew’s but I think he should be 4 stars. I think his ceiling is higher than even Seumalo but I don’t think he is a lock for All Pac-12. If reports are true that he is up to 340 he could be not so great in pass protection with those speed rushers on the edges. I guess at that point you could move him to OG but that seems like a waste of such a long tackle body.
He’s a champion wrestler. He knows how to drop weight and get fit. But he didn’t have the benefit of nutritionists, trainers and a training table to put the weight back on. He’ll settle in around 310-315 and look much more svelte than he does now. Think Steve Hutchinson.
That would be awesome if he is 1/2 the player. BTW Steve has a hot wife. Appears in some local mags in the twin cities.
Off subject, but I am giddy. Our AD at U of M is “retiring.” New Prez did not renew his contract.
He makes Bobby D seem like Steve Jobs in comparison. Made one of the worst hires in CFB history in Tim, I’m full of crap, Brewster. “Coach Brew” to you Fox sports watchers. Hip, hip !
What… was Mike Lynn your AD?
Even worse. He was a Manchurian candidate plant from U of Wisconsin.” Badger Joel” Maturi is how he is not so lovingly referred to here. Some interesting parallels with the Beavs. Women’s b-ball.
I didn’t get the considerable extension for Brewster after a poor year either. Brewster has his health issues which are tough enough but to make him out like he is some fantastic coach when the evidence shows he produces below average results seems foolhardy and just like BDC. Personally, I think Brewster is trying to use the Riley formula and realizes he needs to just be tight with the AD and talk about how he sees progress on the horizon. When the decisions are that poor though it can and should cost ADs their job just like has happened. BDC isn’t immune from his extension of the millenium for Riley either.
listening to Riley the other day he seemed really disappointed in the Wallace situation. It seemed to me like he was holding back some dirt.
Heyward screwed his alma mater!
Not sure if anyone mentioned this but here’s the quote from Wallace about why he switched:
“It was important that I knew who my coach was going to be at Washington,” Wallace said at a lunchtime ceremony for himself and San Jose State signee Eugene Taylor. “I talked to both (Oregon State and Washington) last night, but it was hard not knowing who my (position) coach would be at Oregon State.”
nice find. I’m wondering if this situation was a bit of a catch 22?
On the one hand, you have a DB who wants to know who his coach is before he decides to commit, but on the other hand (and this is purely speculation on my part) you have a coach who doesn’t want to agree to the job until he knows which players will be playing for him. It sounds like Riley was stuck waiting for one of these two to make the first move so the other could fall into place. But since neither made the move, the team gets screwed and Washington reaps the benefits. Sarkasian may be the most hated man in college football right now.
Yeah… but it had nothing to do with why he flipped.
Right?
Btw… I know CB is a position of need now, and moreso next year. But I wouldn’t mind if Riley just gave us straight talk like Kirk Ferentz does with his lack of a coaching hire for two positions on the defensive side (DC being one).
Ferentz just comes out and says that making the right choice is paramount for his team. When asked if he will lose recruits because of a lack of coaches at whatever position, he flatly says that short term gain would be a long term loss because he simply rushed to fill a position. He pretty much says he doesn’t care if a kid chooses somewhere else for that reason, he doesn’t respect that reason.
Fair enough in my mind.
I would rather have that explanation than one of denial like, “I don’t think [KH] leaving will have much affect on our DB class.” Just come out and tell us the kids can go where they want to go. There are more kids out there.
Ferentz should hire a ex parole officer. Then his players wouldn’t have to leave campus.
Also btw…
Wallace’s reason is just bullshit. He could have waited for months before he signed anything, let alone a day.
Either Wallace is being condescending, or he is just highly confused about the reality of signing somehwere due to what a couple used car salesman put in his ear.
I vote for the latter since I think he’s probably a good kid. But he was used (as much as OSU was played) by UW recruiters.
I’m voting the latter too. I could totally see recruiters getting in his ear telling him if he doesn’t commit today, there wouldn’t be an option for him at Washington. Really too bad kids lives are jerked around with so much because a coach is scared to lose his job.
either that they put some cash in his families pockets.
I doubt that. The timeline suggests that he was a lock for OSU until Jordan Payton ditched UW for UCLA, opening one more spot.
Which means he wanted to go UW, but they didn’t have the slots at the beginning of the day.
Angry – have you ranked other Pac-12 classes and put OSU in context there?
What do people think of these Pac-12 recruiting rankings:
“The Pac-12 rankings had it 1. Stanford.. 2. USC ..3. UCLA.. 4. Oregon.. 5. Washington .. 6. California.. 7. Utah … 8. Colorado … 9. Arizona State … 10. Oregon State .. 11. Arizona State. .. 12. Washington State.”
Did Utah and Colorado really out-recruit OSU? OSU only beat out a team with a coaching transition and Washington State?
OSU Facebook just said major announcement at 4:15. COACH?
Has to be.
A day late and a dollar short. I have this in common with RiIey. The Wallace situation also bugs me. We really needed another capable DB. It is kinda shocking to me how much UW could load up there while OSU got the bare minimum. I don’t get Wallace’s decision besides him not fully being in sync with Riley’s plans for the new coach and not having the complete trust he wanted. After this long in the business Riley should have been better at communicating his plans and stressed how quickly Wallace could start for the Beavers whereas at UW there is a near logjam at DB forming and any player will have to be looking over his shoulder.
Well put.
Riley can’t communicate a timeout from the sidelines in time….
I heard from someone that OSU is signing on with another flagship radio station…KEX i think? Should have better signal strength than KPAM
KPAM blows, at least up in the Portland area. Talk about limiting your exposure in your biggest market. Why they ever decided to put their radio broadcasts on a station with a constant high pitched noise in the background I’ll never understand. KEX isn’t great, but at least they have better signal strength. It’s too bad they couldn’t get picked up by 1080 the fan. The Ducks are on the other prominent sports radio station of the area, so why not have a battle of the sports radio stations?
Oh yeah, I forgot, 1080 already has Mariner’s Baseb……….zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz………….sorry, I fell asleep…..what were we talking about?
Yippee?
What’s a radio? Is that what my computer turns into when I stream broadcasts?
I guess it’s ok that we’re not associated with KPAM anymore. Other than Bob Miller, that station is one steaming heap of crap content.
I’m in Boise today and the paper says that even with all the coaches leaving (3) they only lost one recruit. Interesting quote from the OL coach, “We always say as soon as the kid commits to us, that’s when the recruiting really starts. Because as soon as a guy goes out online and says, ‘I’m committed to Boise State’, everyone else is going to start swinging. We know that is when we have to turn the heat on. Build those relationships, and really try to build it up to the point where a kid says, ‘I don’t care what happens, I’m not leaving.” I wonder if it’s the same with Riley & Co. You can say they recruit different kids but they’ve been pretty successful.
Riley said so much in the press conference yesterday. Paraphrasing, but he said along the same lines that once a recruit commits, the hardest part of recruiting starts. One thing he should do if he isn’t already, is get the committed kids to recruit the other recruits. Gilmore tried recruited Darius Powe, and while it didn’t work out, it sure did solidfy Gilmore’s commitment. Might help keep the early commitments since those are the most likely to change their minds.
I didn’t see a listing for the game. Is CU doing something on their network?
CU is streaming, but its paid network as well. Might have to go old school and just listen to the radio.
ObjCritic
As far as conference rankings go, the top 5 seem to be consistent across websites.
But as Herbstreet mentioned yesterday, only the 4 and 5 star kids are the ones who are most likely to contribute soon to success.
So if you look at the schools who have the most of those, the schools ranked ahead of us might have a higher probability.
On Rivals we are ranked#38 but when you sort by average stars, we drop to #49.
On Scout we rank #46, but when using stars we drop to #53.
So I may tend to agree with Herbstreet on how soon one might predict success. But I also think that once you drop below the top 5 rated teams that everyone else is a crap shoot to who is next best. Player development, coaching, academics, and team chemistry are all factors that can push one team ahead of another.
When I looked at the Ducks, they remained in the same 15-18 range for both types of rankings and I think that all it means is that the Oregon class probably is more likely to be successful on average than ours. But we will know for sure in 2-4 years.
Here is a list of the top-ranked JUCO DTs available for signing this year: http://247sports.com/Recruit/Position-Ranking/2012/Football/DT/Junior-College
If MR and his staff tried to do so, they could have gotten at least one of these guys to come to OSU with the promise of immediate playing time in the PAC-12. Banker and Riley might ponder this next season, while they watch OSU’s overmatched DT’s being pushed around again like cows on ice….
am i getting him confused with somebody else, or was chris miller a zero star when he committed? seems like a nice find all things considered.
I don’t think they rank anyone as 0 stars. May NR for no rating, but that is generally because there is no or little information on the guy. Looks like a guy who flew way under the radar.
yeah 0 stars just means they haven’t been given a rating yet. It is pretty rare for a guy to get 1 star too… So really 2 stars is as bad as you can practically get.
interesting, thanks. i try to stay away from being knowledgeable about the recruiting stuff because it just seems like every LOI day it just leads to disappointment but its damn addicting.
Back to the coaching question…
I mentioned yesterday who I thought might fit the criteria as posted, and I forgot there was another coach who was recently released and has not been even mentioned as a possible re-hire anywhere as of yet. Kevin Ross is available.
There’s no MR connection that I can find. But he does have several connections up and down the West Coast. So there could be a recommendation in there somewhere. He was also a teammate of James Hasty for one year, if that means anything.
Since we got over the road hump in the Civil War, I think OSU can beat Colorado tonight in a close game. We need to maintain defensive intensity and mix in our defenses strategically. Jared again needs to be a leader and the entire team, including coach, needs to communicate and be engaged from start to finish.
Oregon State @ Colorado:
http://beaverbyte.com
I’ll be there! Hoping for a good game.
LOL…”Big” announcement is the KEX radio station becoming the home of Beaver Nation.
Are you serious?
Wow.
The first person to leave a comment on facebook just wrote “I’m underwhelmed”
funny stuff
Heh heh…
Oh, what the hell… that one gets an extra heh heh.
I figured it was nothing since it came from the overall athletic dept page. If it came from the football page, then for sure it would be a coach.
Serious letdown…. wow..
there are no words
Classic beavs
I mean…it was just an announcement on a FB page…but how about some situational awareness for shit sake?! You say somehting “BIG” is coming the day after NLI signing day, AND when we’re all waiting for coaching news. This could only be “BIG” sometime between spring and fall camps.
I am blown away by this level of obliviousness.
Maybe not the news we were expecting to hear, but I’m glad to see Beaver Sports will be on the FM dial now. I’m often listening to games on the road, and the AM reception was pretty spotty on the old station.
I first heard that news was coming around 6am Thursday while listening to KEX am (KPAM seldom comes in when it is dark). As soon as they said the big announcement would be carried “only on KEX” I knew what it would be. Good move since KEX (am only) has a much stronger signal.
Good luck with the FM broadcasts, I have never gotten a good signal from KEX FM.
Hahahahahaha seriously?? Big f’ing deal who is the dam DB coach already??
Riley’s “I should know something from one guy in the next 48 hours or so” has long come and gone…
What A Joke
Greg Biggins just now on 1080 the FAN was asked what coach in the Pac-12 should be the most disappointed today about the recruiting results.
Answer: Mike Riley
Reason, Let too many players get away.
National disappointment
Answer Auburn did not cash in on NCS momentum.
Also said Stanford had the most impressive OL class of anyone in the nation.
Yeah… Biggins is in love with Peat. I’m not. I’ll put our boys up against SU’s… well… for the next four years.
And we’ll win!
Actually he did not let them get away. They left in part because OSU only had fool’s gold to offer. Let’s do some math. Two days before signing day, 27 verbals and 13 slots available. Let’s give OSU 4 more potential spots for attrition over the next few months and allow them 17total slots.. That leaves 10 guys without a chair. So you promise a few of them next year’s spots, thereby screwing up the pool of slots for next year’s recruiting. Then you hope like hell that you can invent a way to get a few more aboard in the future. In the mean time, many of those 10, stuck without a chair, get legitimate offers for schollies from other places. Of course some of the guys will bolt for solid offers. Riley had nothing really to offer many of those kids because he had too few slots to begin with. He spent his wad on previous shopping trips. He had a small graduating class and he had burned up future spots in previous years with his many greyshirt projects. He can’t seem to live within his means, which has affected the product on the field. The practice of over recruiting and burning up future slots is not sustainable in football or life..
Good points, and another aspect of the riley regime that is not objectively called out by regular media.
The Beavs had 17 seniors so they would have had that many slots plus one from Thompson and then some academic casualties and transfers. So they had around 22-24 available.
And you keep holding up USC as some paragon of virtue for this topic. Yet as of this morning, after all known attrition had been accounted for, USC had 81 ships out there with all their signings.
That’s an over sign by six.
I’d like to see how many kids have transferred out of USC in the last decade.
Yeah dude, the Beavs have way more than 13 ships. 17 seniors + Thompson + katz + Taylor Henry + a few I know I’m forgetting…but 20 minimum
Well the schedule minus Wisconsin is very favorable early. The back end is loaded, but it is usually when we play our best ball. It makes me feel a bit better. I am really hoping spring ball is just epic and some red shirted DL and freshmen OL make large impacts. I am much happier with this team then last years. The OL will make a huge difference and the talent level on both sides of the ball will be better.
I mean realistically there were only 4 games last year that got out of hand.. the rest with better offense could have been won. Even the stanford game was very competitive for the first half.
Just when it seems OSU has recruited prototypical guards and tackles, with experience and demonstrated effectiveness at their positions, the talk of position switches begins:
http://www.portlandtribune.com/sports/story.php?story_id=132817441579951200
Seumalo to tackle? I don’t have a lot of confidence in the “Cavanaugh Shuffle” these days. I’m hoping Daryl Jackson has had a good offseason and his 6’&7″ frame is out there. A firm decision needs to be made on Phillip, tackle or guard (I think guard is more natural), but they’ve invested some time with him at tackle.
I imagine something like Hasiak and Jackson at the tackles, with Seumalo and Phillip at guards…with some of the true FR tackles getting a legitimate shot at the two deep. I’m not surprised that Cav would say “Seumalo could end up at tackle,” just perplexed after such a balanced haul on offensive line recruits.
I agree 100%. How many NFL tackles are under 6′ 5″. Not many. Remember this the same group that says we are set at DT. They will f-up this o-line class somehow.
I wouldn’t worry too much about Seumalo. Yes, he will be a prototypical guard at the next level. But if he’s the best lineman we have come fall, then he gets put in the most important position. Besides, until he gets up to a natural playing weight at which he can play guard he is more suited to tackle at this level.
It might force Philipp to finally move to the interior as well, which is probably more imprtant than having Seumalo inside. If Hasiak comes in and plays at a high level, he should be the RT. With Philipp and Andrews at OG, that leaves only C to be worked out.
I’ve heard that Sapolu has been in the weight room all winter break putting on size. And I’ve heard that he is technically very sound. If he takes that position with skill, we could be looking at a pretty amazing line for next year.
LT – Seumalo – technically excellent, great footwork and hands
LG – Andrews – mean streak, moves the line forward
C – Sapolu – technically sound, heard he’s nasty, undersized?
RG – Philipp – road grader who needs to be more consistent but can do it
RT – Hasiak – mean streak, good feet and great hands
Reserve OT – Kelly, Enger, Jackson, Weinreich, Eldredge
Kelly and Enger have the most experience, but Enger has been bounced around inside for need. If he can concentrate on being a back-up at OT, I think he can do well. Weinreich and Eldredge are naturals here. They need experience, but Weinreich has the size going in. Eldredge will redshirt for sure due to his size and him getting over a leg injury. Jackson is a wild card. He has the size, but we haven’t seen his feet. He may be moved inside.
Reserve OG – Addie, Beaton, GAndrews, Bays, Garner, Welch, Nielson
I know Garner was in at C when Johnson went out. But he impressed me less than Johnson did, which in not much impression. I’ve heard good things about Welch at C, but that’s on the scout team. I think Bays and Sapolu will be looked at for the C with Welch being third there. GAndrews can make an impact immediately, but if the interior is solid with the starters and decent back-ups in Addie and Beaton (and Enger and maybe Jackson), then he can actually redshirt. I half expect the same of Bays if he doesn’t take the start at C.
Mitchell and Vieru are wild cards here. If they move to the DT, they can get time on the field with who we have now. Well, on an egalitarian team they would get it. As we all know, experience trumps talent unless talent can’t be denied. If these kids are only 25% better than all who would play there, then the experience gets the call… for whatever reason.
I think Mitchell moves to DT, but not sure about Vieru. If Vieru has a wrestling background and decent size, which it sounds like he does, moving him to DT makes a lot of sense given the need there and the balanced talent coming in at the Oline. However, given he’s been a Oline project and “feel good story,” he gets to stay regardless of incoming talent would be my guess based on past performance of the coaching staff.
Another contextual point is that even if Cav is going to play with recipe, he has much better ingredients and the outcome can’t help but be better than the last two years. I just think the strategy and decision-basis could be more consistent and clear.
Vieru has great size. If you take a look at pictures of him, he has very wide hips and shoulders.
great upper body and lower body strength too. He certainly won’t be Paea, but he will probably take to it very quickly. His body structure says he has a high ceiling.
With this recruiting class, plus the return of a healthy Michael Philipp and 6’7″ Darryl Jackson, the O-line has quickly morphed from an area of glaring weakness to one of strength and depth for the Beavers. Suddenly, there is size and talent, and the basis for real, open competition.
Let’s hope that Cav and MR let all these guys compete hard, and reward the winners of that competition with starting positions and playing time. Guys who get beaten out for O-line playing time can then volunteer to switch to D-line and compete for playing time there, if they have the desire to do so.
If MR and the other coaches make clear to everyone that it’s an open competition for spots on the O-line (and D-line), with no guarantees based on seniority, good things could happen, now that OSU — finally — has a stable of studs to work with.
UMMMM…Coach Riley…Your DE’s are fine…it’s your DT’s that are low in depth and in SIZE! So how is 7 offensive lineman going to help when we can only potentially START 5 of the 7 OL that signed in this recruiting class?! If there are top DT’s that are interested in you…GO FOR THEM! If they are average at best, then it’s wise to wait, but don’t wait until your “comfortable with the depth” to “Oh shit! We only have 2 guys for our DT’s in mid season! Why didn’t we recruit at least 2 more DT’s Buker!!!!”
“It was not a priority as far as numbers,” Riley said about recruiting defensive linemen. “It became an offensive linemen year in recruiting. We recruited some defensive linemen, but not many and we were very selective.”
Read more: http://www.gazettetimes.com/sports/beavers-sports/football/osu-football-recruiting-class-missed-some-but-still-turned-out/article_03533ee2-4cf9-11e1-9b69-001871e3ce6c.html#ixzz1lMv0BV2r
Off topic: Cal continues to sign players post signing day.
They get a 3 star DT and then pick up a CB today.
Guess we could not go after these guys because we are already over the 85 limit and must find 6-9 guys to greyshirt or leave.
Remember that every greyshirt is one less spot available next year. Hope we are not wasting these on 2 star guys.