What’s the logic on the latest 4th and 1 call?

If they kick the FG, they’re tied in the 4th quarter vs a team playing equally poor as they were. The Washington QB was awful. I’d take our chances with kicking the FG to tie, having Washington use the run game and scoring a TD, and then the Beavs probably getting one drive to tie the game (and go for two then, if you want to go for the win. That’s the time to do something aggressive).

If you don’t get it, or the refs screw you, you’re pretty much done. People think going for it on 4th is “aggressive” and “going for the win!”, but it’s also going for the loss. The Beavs are now 1-4 on these calls. Yet, it is “going for the win”? Seems delusional to me. I can play an aggressive move in chess, like e4, Bc4, Qf3, Qf7 to attempt mate in four moves, but it only works versus poor players. Smith is like an amateur chess player randomly swapping pieces with no real plan.

Smith is confirming to me what I have suspected since the Nevada loss: that he’s an impatient, degenerate gambler. I was bullish on the hire, and he’s pretty good at most things, but he’s too much of an in-game liability to continue this experiment. I’m one step from saying fire the guy, but I feel that’s coming soon. Smith needs to look in the mirror starting 2 years ago, and he has to admit his gambles aren’t working and learn from the mistakes. This is how anyone in any field progresses.

The real problem with being aggressive that early in the game is there are too many “choose your own adventures” – too many variables and permutations. Late in the game, if you play it straight until then, the variables reduce to just a few, and you know the real probabilities of the move. This again is a lot like chess.

Regarding Gebbia: I think he will be a good player at some point (he showed this vs Oregon and WSU), but he’s clearly got something wrong right now, and it appears mental. He has happy feet and is generally way too fidgety in the pocket. Maybe he got blindsided in Fall camp or something, and now he’s got PTSD. I’m not sure. But I’m totally fine moving on from him for now, let him work that out in practice, and let’s see what Nolan can do. Nolan’s film was good and he can run a bit better, so it might fit with this poor offensive line more than Gebbia.

Go Beavs

I’m going 42-28, Beavs, as they learn from their mistakes and work toward a Pac North championship. :D

The 9pm start time is good for nobody. And if last week’s start time was any indicator, the Beavs are not collective night owls. Could explain the slow start.

Is it worth writing thoughts for this game? It would go something like “they need better line play” yada yada, and all these coach-talk cliches are getting old. Yeah, the lines have to play better. Great insight by me. I notice on Twitter there’s hardly any activity around the Beavs. Yikes.

The reason I’ll be watching is to see what errors Smith makes. It’s morbid curiosity, but it’s all I’ve got in terms of intrigue. The other reason would be to see if guys like Flemings and Colletto are removed, and if they are, how much better the team performs without them.

On the topic of entertainment with your free time, if you haven’t seen it, Queen’s Gambit on Netflix is worth watching (instead of the Beavs, even).

My takeaways from the prior thread, with a little more meat added to the bones.

1. Gebbia is legit. The slow start was concerning, but he looked like himself onward. People seem to think he played poorly. Definitely started slow, but it’s the start of a new season – these things happen. He was on fire 2nd half and looked like himself. I see the cause for concern, though. He was lobbing the ball too much. Also was throwing too much on the run without the ability to get his shoulders turned. Wound up with great numbers, and this with a weak receiving corp who couldn’t break away and also added a handful of drops.

2. Smith is a huge in-game liability. He has no concept of basic probabilities, order of operations, or personnel. Excuse he gave in his presser was they decided before the game they were going for 2 in this game, so they did it then. That is literally an insane way to coach. Beyond reckless. Just nuts. He’s officially a mad man who will continue to cost us games. We’re getting far into this regime, and the reality is starting to show itself. Smith might be better off as an assistant. He has ability recruiting and scheming, but he has no idea how to manage a game. If it weren’t for this major flaw, I’d be very bullish on Smith, but I’ve gone from bullish to neutral given this major flaw.

3. Nice to see some old names back on AB. NVBeav stood out. He was laying down some nice beats.

4. Do we know yet why ~half the roster didn’t play? Why was Colleto in ahead of beasts like Hughes-Murray, et al? Smith’s personnel decisions also very questionable. My theory, unless there was a Covid outbreak or some health issue to a majority of the team, is Smith will play short guys and walk-ons because he was a short walk-on. Bias. I hope it was something explainable and not that.

5. Penalties. Showed a lack of focus and discipline. Killed drives that likely would have made this a different game. Again on the coaches.

That’s all I’ve got for now.

I can’t believe I’m writing this, but….game thread!

Almost one year. Good job getting through the drought, guys. Let’s hope we can last a few more hours and get this game in. We all need a fix.

With regard to the game, I’m saying Jefferson has a big game with 150 yards, 2TDs. Gebbia 3TDs (I’m saying 2 in the air and 1 rushing). Defense gets a few turnovers.

35-28 Beavs.