Home Baseball Baseball Lays an Egg — Sign of Bigger Problems?

Baseball Lays an Egg — Sign of Bigger Problems?

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Mean reversion is an inevitable part of baseball, but you'd expect it would come against an ASU, Stanford, et al, not Washington. Washington has now fucked up the Beavs football and baseball seasons.

Beavs are fielding .970, which is ~40th percentile. Ideally you want .975 or better. For reference, Oregon leads the NCAA at .987. You know the old saying "strong up the middle"? Well the Beavs have Max Gordon (.960 with 0 assists), Tyler Smith (.955) and Andy Peterson (.960). Beavs are 93rd in runs scored and 92nd in batting average. They're getting by on pitching (#2 ERA heading into the weekend), but that pitching has been betrayed by the .970 fielders behind them. You could make the point that a lot of these errors were committed over a few games. Fair enough, but elite teams don't have multiple games like that.

Something else to keep in mind: there are many ways to hit .300. For example, a player might go 3 for 10 every series with a hit in all 3 games. Or, they might get 3 hits in one game and go 0-7 the next two games. Ideally you want players who contribute each game, rather than have big games then disappear. I feel like the Beavers who do hit for average do so in clusters. A 3-4 type game followed by two 0-4 (Danny Hayes?). I'm not going to look through each box score to see if that's true, but it feels that way.

Are these issues the pitching can overcome, or will the Beavs fade down the stretch and into the post-season?

129 COMMENTS

  1. Great pitching, great defense, and timely hitting will win a team a lot of games and are those were attributes of the national title teams.  The defense is what brings up the most red flags for me.  This is still a very good team that can do some damage come post season because of the pitching.

  2. I thought the same thing re: vs. Washington football and baseball this year, when I read Saturday's scores and writeups. You know where you are with Oregon; PK, $, cheats, in-state, but Washington is bloody sneaky and I feel more vengeful toward their teams than Oregon's and am disappointed more often than not.

  3. I didn't realize Gordon was suffering with the glove this year. I'd expect it from a SS, but not an OF. And looking at Conforto's .955 isn't exactly heart-warming either.

    Barnes, Matthews, Jansen and Hendrix, otoh, have yet to flub a ball. And it's not as if Barnes is untested this year or even in previous years.

    • Im not sure Gordon is, as he's 32-33, but that 1 error gives him a .970 fielding %. The middle infielders % is for real, though. Do these guys have better range than average? That would be the only positive spin. We'd probably have to calculate their total chances vs the league average total changes to see if they're getting to more balls and thus making more errors. Since Smith missed a lot of time that probably isn’t the case.

      • Like I said, I expect it from all but the very very best SS. Smith's E's are forgiveable in that context. And Peterson got most of his at SS as well while Smith was out. What positions were Keyes and Casper playing when they committed their errors? Were they up the middle too?

          • That's what I thought. That's 15 of 29 errors when added to the 14 of Smith and Peterson. Given that Gordon's numbers are out of whack for one E and Conforto's suffers from 3, I would say it's not so much an "up the middle" weakness. It appears to be more of an IF problem.

            Are we missing Lees more than we thoguht we would?

          •  It appears to be more of an IF problem.

            Yeah, it is primarely IF.

            Outfield assists seem low, too. I really wish I had the time to calculate range factor. I used to do this for dlfans (if anyone remembers that site haha) back in the day when I had more time.

            At DLfans we calcualted ideals for each position:

            1B .997+ with high assists

            2B .980+ with high range.

            SS. .970+ with high range.

            3B .965

            C .990 + high assists/caught stealing

            LF .975 + assists

            CF .980 + above average range

            RF .975 + assists + range

            Teams with those fielding baromters won more (simulated) games. 3B (and SS to a lesser degree) always makes more errors because no recovery time (like at 1B) and the hard hit balls.

          • Going by those numbers (and keeping whole numbers in mind) Hayes and Gordon are one error off (with two overall for Hayes and one for Gordon). Jake/Nate are pretty much dead on, and Davis is the only fielder who is better than the measure.

          • Hayes and Gordon are one error off

            Yeah. But we calculated putouts and assists per 9 innings, too. I forget what the ideals were for those…I believe .70 for 1B, and I can't remember CF, but it was pretty low. And then from there derived a variable called 'range factor'.

            The idea was to quantify that range is the most important variable (can't get an assist or putout if you don't get to the ball). Fielding % was sometimes misleading, because a player like Ozzie Smith who got to x% more balls than say, Jeter, would be expect to make more errors.

            see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Range_factor

            This played out in the simulations, but I never saw the guts of the engine, so I don't know if there was programming bias. Logically, it makes sense, though.

            I'm sure you know about that statistic, but for those who don't…

  4. 3-3 after 11 innings. Schultz ia pitching his ass off, offense needs to step up and get him a couple runs and get a win for him

    • Absolutely. If this was a Wednesday, the Beavers probably don't have their closer for Friday and Saturday at least and I don't really trust any other pitcher in the pen aside from Engelbrekt.

  5. Man, the clutch hitting we had early in the season has gone down the toilet…..gotta find a way to get that back.     Shaking up the lineup?     or what…

  6. Too bad he didn't pitch like that on Saturday but nice to see him bounce back and put zeros on the board. It really doesn't give me much confidence going into the weekend though. 

  7. Seems to me there are no excuses for anything less than full, focused and unrelenting effort this weekend.  No reason for overconfidence, playing at home, end of season in sight.

    Beavs shoud be able to rip the condoms, three straight.  All starts with a statement win on Friday.  Go Beavs, take what they give ya….it'll be enough!

  8. I think we forget that these guys are students too with a lot of additional responsibilities besides just baseball to handle at a young age. Hopefully they get refreshed with some nice weather in the valley this week and are ready to go this weekend.

    • I disagree, all our quarterbacks did was throw for 4,000 yards, 27 touchdowns, and completed 62% of the passes.  With coverages getting more and more complex, quarterbacks are now throwing more to a spot instead of at a player.

      • I too thought the overall completion percentage was good (and it was), and some of that is probably the lateral throws; the outs and screens.  But in re-watchingthese plays (and the 2012 WR highlight video OSU made before the Alamo Bowl) I think YAC could have gone up signficantly, and there'd probably have been several more TDs.  Many times, Wheaton/Cooks have to adjust significantly or slow their routes to wait for the ball. Hitting those guys in stride could have made a difference in terms of yards, points, and entertainment.

        I have to think that in film review, the QBs, coaches, and WRs seem missed opportunties laying on the field too.

         

         

         

        • If you watch a highlight film of any position they are going to try and showcase the talent.  Watch the quarterback highlight tape and you see just percectly thrown balls, but it doesn't highlight receivers, when a bad ball is thrown it a wide receiver and he comes up with the catch it's a great play for him.  And every single team at all levels when they go and look at the film there are going to find TONS of missed oppurtunites left on the field.

          • Bone, Critic is right on this. Post BYU, QB play was very poor last year. Our WRs did a great job of adjusting to many, many bad throws. Without that effort and the talent there, those QB numbers absolutely don’t stand. I mean geez, did you watch Stanford or Texas? Or Washington?

            Tons of instances where an inaccurate throw turned a good play into a mediocre one, or a mediocre play into a bad one. Many of these wouldn’t have been caught at all if it weren’t for the Wheaton/Cooks combo.

            WR is one of those positions that often gets more credit than they deserve, as QB is the far more demanding position. But last year they deserved all the credit they got.

          • completely agree. But I wouldn’t call either of them inaccurate passers, needs improvement? yes, but not inaccurate passers. There is a reason all receivers at all schools practice bad ball drills, because all quarterbacks are going to throw a bad ball every once in a while. I am not trying to take anything away from Markus or Brandin, they clearly had awesome seasons.

    • That CAL game was a joke.  CAL players had already mailed it in and played their worst game of the season which was the final nail in Tedford's coffin.  One think I noticed watching those highlights was the number of times Mannion should have been picked off, but CAL defenders couldn't hang onto the ball.  Some of those passes were right into their hands.

      • If you were there, you would have realized that it was extremely cold and wet, especially for Californians. I am not a great Mannion fan but he was pumped up and throwing really too hard at the beginning for anyone to catch and then was lights out good. I believe that he played well against Cal and that the “so called” Cal drops were wishful thinking/attacks without merit. The most memorable statistic of the game was the number of times Cal players got knocked to the ground and were unable to get up after the play ended. There was a near record for players needing assistance to get off the field. The weather was mostly the cause of this. But with that said, Wheaton was nearly unguardable, Cooks was electric, Ward was a beast and most importantly, the Beavers successfully threw multiple times to the tight end dragging deep across the field which made all of the previous things I mentioned possible. Thank God that the inept Bears D coach is now the coordinator at USC. Danny boy made him look like a fool. The Bears destroyed Beaver linebackers and safeties but simply could not keep up.

        • I was at the game, and yes, it was a little chilly, but the rain really didn’t start until the 3rd quarter. I know because I was sitting in an uncovered area of the stadium in the upper deck, and my wife and I got poured on in that quarter. The wind was blowing the rain sideways for awhile.

          Regardless, the drops are right there in the video ObjCritic linked to above. I’m not making this shit up.

          http://draftbreakdown.com/markus-wheaton-vs-cal-2012

          At the 0:45 second mark, Mannion throws into double coverage, hits the CAL defender in the hands, but fortunately Wheaton comes through to break up the easy INT. (No rain in sight)

          At the 3:50 mark, Mannion again throws into double coverage, this time right into the hands of the CAL defender who just drops the ball. Even the commentator says “that SHOULD have been an interception.” (again no rain)

          Mannion also threw an INT on the first drive of the game. There should have been 3 first half INT’s.

          These plays were both in the 1st half, before any rain was falling. Check out how many under-thrown balls are in that video too.

          Is there a stat for players needing assistance to get off the field? I’d like to see how close CAL was to breaking that record if you know the number.

          CAL players quit on their coach in that game, and Tedford pretty much quit coaching by the end of the game.

          See the comment about Ward’s “magnificent” game. The big run he had is mentioned in the the article below. Those CAL arm tackles weren’t going to bring him down. If they had actually tried to tackle him, he wouldn’t have broken that run off.
          http://www.californiagoldenblogs.com/2012/11/18/3660830/an-inglorious-end-oregon-state-pummels-uninspired-cal-62-14

          • I think it’s relative. This isn’t the NFL. Arm tackles knock down RB’s most of the time in college, especially when four or five are applied at the same time.

            Ward was playing with a chip on his shoulder, and he just wasn’t going to be denied against a hometown Cal team who only offered him a walk-on spot. I love Ward as a football player (and his high school buddy Anderson also). I thought it was a crime that the best RB in Cali football was never offered a ship because of his size… until a week after signing day. And I am so happy that he’s on our team. Yes, he’s a developmental type player. But look how productive he’s been as just a developmental type. He works and works and works. And it shows. He may never be more than a back-up, but he’s a very valuable back-up. You know that anyone who beats him out has to work just as hard as he does. If you don’t do so, he will beat you by wearing you down.

          • And Ward’s work ethic and continuing to push will only be beneficial for Woods, who is someone I don’t think needs to be pushed because he is motivated to be great. Nice little interview on him from espn.

            http://espn.go.com/blog/pac12/post/_/id/55994/qa-oregon-states-storm-woods

            And if we are going to say Mannion should of had 3 interceptions that first half, he should of had 2. The one that was intercepted went right through Colby Prince’s hands. I think Mannion had like 3-4 of those types of interceptions this last season.

          • Meh… Mannion got the INTs he deserved last year when all of it washed out. The DBs dropped some. Colin Kelly let the DE knock passes into the air for a couple picks. Receivers handed the ball to defenders. It was like watching Joey Harrington. When he was good, he couldn’t be stopped. When he was unlucky he was the unluckiest QB on earth.

            What was amazing was that Vaz didn’t have double digit picks. He had many of the same DB dropped the ball scenarios as well as tipped balls which just fell… or scored a TD. I remember the one he threw to a Texas DB which was just dropped. There was the DB… and two other Texas players within ten yards on that pass.

          • There’s also a leadership contribution that guys like him make when they’re busting their butt. That’s one of those hard to measure things, but hugely valuable to a team.

          • Has there been any word on Anderson’s health this year? I know he had a season ending injury last year (achilles? knee?) I haven’t heard anything about his rehab and if he’ll be on the depth chart in fall.

          • I haven’t heard word about Anderson’s rehab. He blew his ACL. I’d say he’ll be ready to go in August based on the typical recovery time.

          • There are poor decisions (throwing into double coverage) and inaccuracy. They are problems for both QB’s. What looks like a good completion percentage I think is somewhat obscured by play calls (lateral passes and screens) and WR’s adjusting to poorly thrown, inaccurate balls. I don’t watch those highlights and often think “Mannion/Vaz did a great job of throwing to a spot/area,” I think “Wow, the WR really had to adjust,” or “if that balls hits him in the hands or leads him there are more yards and tds.” The WRs made the QBs look better than they were. Mannion needs to make major strides in decisions AND accuracy this season.

            Really like Ward and think he’s going to produce impact plays this season.

            Hoping Brown makes the most of Woods’ absence this Friday and has a good showing in the spring game.

            Was hoping a young QB (Harrington/Vanderveen) would be showing more ability and growth than they’ve reportedly done so far this spring. If Mannion keeps up his current pace of INTs, and Vaz is gone next year, somebody needs to compete with Vaz next season.

          • Even the commentator said….great original thought process quoting media and Kim K. The first interception was on Mannion. It was thrown so hard and high that the te had no chance. I guess that Cal really did not try to tackle Ward. It was a conspiracy. If the Bear hadn’t stopped to take a poop, (don’t have to swear to be macho), he would have caught the Beaver. If, if if. The Bears quit on their coach, they quit on their school, they quit the game but the refs would not let them go home and since they are quitters they have been permanently banned from PAC 12. Look, no one is saying that Mannion will lead the Beavers to the promised land. But Mannion did lead them to a victory over a Cal team that was timid, cold and lacking bravura. For all the poop he takes, he should also be granted a modicum of credit.

    • More on Wheaton, makes Yahoo sports top 50 prospects for draft:

      “50. Markus Wheaton, Oregon State WR

      We begin this year’s group with Oregon State receiver Markus Wheaton. In Mike Reilly’s high-falutin’ offense (and without a top-tier quarterback throwing him passes), Wheaton made his name as one of the most productive college receivers at any level in the last two seasons. After a 2011 campaign in which he caught 73 balls for 986 yards and only one touchdown (shades of Keyshawn Johnson!), Wheaton blew it up in 2012, getting a little closer to the goal line and grabbing 91 balls for 1,244 yards and 11 scores.

      [More Shutdown 50: Georgia’s John Jenkins is a rare — and huge — athlete]

      After a very impressive week at the Senior Bowl (ask Desmond Trufant about that), Wheaton started to establish himself as the kind of player who could possibly find his way to “1A” status on an NFL team. The question is, in what systems can a route-savvy, 5-foot-11, 190-pound player with a good sense of the game take it over the top?”

      http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/shutdown-50-50-markus-wheaton-wr-oregon-state-151630315–nfl.html

  9. Anybody else having trouble viewing these posts as they come through your e-mail?  Pretty much any character that isn't a letter becomes code that isn't readable by my email program (gmail)  It seems to have gotten worse with the new editing features that have recently been added.

    • I don’t know. He has the measurables to be a great 3-4 5 tech. But he often played to the inside, which crunched his numbers somewhat. If I’m a 3-4 team, I would look at him for that. I don’t think he’s as good as Anthony Barr as far as the same position and his upside. But I do think he’ll be productive. There’s no way I take him in the top ten if I’m a 4-3 team looking to project him at OLB. But I think he can put on weight and play like a Tedi Bruschi if someone takes that chance.

      I also don’t think he deserved 1st team Pac 12 over Datone Jones or even Gardner or Breslin. I would take Jones in a heartbeat if I’m looking for a 4-3 DE.

      • Didn’t realize he played inside that much at UO. Definitely has the measurables. Still, seei.g so many top 5 pick projections seems generous.

        • I wouldn’t say “that much,” but he flexed inside quite a bit when the backers pushed up.

          I would take a longer look at Michael Clay btw. He reminded me a lot of Bubba in terms of size and effectiveness. He just doesn’t have the measurables to take him early. But I think he’s good enough to go on the second day without calling it a reach.

  10. Thayer Evans ?@ThayerEvansSI 1h

    Oregon appeared last Friday in Dallas before the NCAA’s infractions committee regarding Will Lyles per a source.

    …Former Ducks coach Chip Kelly attended hearing & maintained Lyles’ scouting service was used “the same way other schools do” per the source….

    …The infractions committee is expected to issue its decision on sanctions in the next 60 to 90 days….

  11. Hillary Clinton is known for making provocative statements, but few have generated such a firestorm as her comment that the president of Syria, Bashar al-Assad, may be a reformer. She made her remarks after “Face the Nation” host Bob Schieffer noted that Assad’s late father had killed 25,000 people during an uprising against his regime. Clinton responded by noting that the son was now in power and he was a “different leader.”

  12. Biden announced his candidacy in June 1987, and was considered one of the potentially strongest candidates in the field. However, in September 1987, newspaper stories stated he had plagiarized a speech by British politician Neil Kinnock. Other allegations of past law school plagiarism and exaggerating his academic record soon followed. Biden withdrew from the race later that month.

  13. Joe Biden aint no stinkin Washington insider. He takes the train home. Have you heard Joe Biden takes the Amtrak train home every night from Washington, D.C., to Wilmington?

    He is a member of the Democratic Party and was a United States Senator from Delaware from January 3, 1973, until his resignation on January 15, 2009, following his election to the Vice Presidency. That’s 33 years in the US Senate, but he aint an insider.

    If not, you will soon — over and over again. With his long experience on foreign policy issues, Biden helps fill one of the holes in Barack Obama’s resume. But Obama has cast his candidacy as about changing Washington, and Biden has been in the Senate for decades.

    Enter the train.

    “He’s not a creature of Washington,” declared Linda Douglass, an Obama spokesman, in advance of the pair’s Springfield speeches. It was a talking point she and spokesman Robert Gibbs repeatedly reiterated on talk shows this morning as they touted Biden. “He’s goes home on the train, eats dinner with his family, he’s the epitome of a regular guy,” she said.

    A few hours later, on stage, Obama called Biden a “rare mix,” who “for decades … has brought change to Washington, but Washington hasn’t changed him.”

    “He never moved to Washington,” Obama told a crowd of several thousand here, in one of several references to the train. “Instead, night after night, week after week, year after year, he returned home to Wilmington on a lonely Amtrak train.”

  14. File this under: Did Harry Reid just say that?

    In the middle of his tirade against House Republicans’ “mean-spirited” budget bill on the Senate floor Tuesday, the Senate Majority Leader lamented that the GOP’s proposed budget cuts would eliminate the annual “cowboy poetry festival” in his home state of Nevada. (See also: Reid’s prostitution lecture bombs.)

    Reid clearly has a soft spot for the Baxter Blacks of the poetry world and thinks Republicans don’t.

    “The mean-spirited bill, H.R. 1 … eliminates the National Endowment of the Humanities, National Endowment of the Arts,” said Reid. “These programs create jobs. The National Endowment of the Humanities is the reason we have in northern Nevada every January a cowboy poetry festival. Had that program not been around, the tens of thousands of people who come there every year would not exist.”

    Reid was attempting, of course, to criticize the spending proposal crafted by House Republicans that would cut $61 billion from the budget before he began praising the annual festival in his home state. The Senate majority leader also insisted Tuesday that he would do everything he could to schedule an up-or-down vote on H.R. 1 in order to force his GOP colleagues to take a position on the budget bill that Democrats argue includes “draconian” cuts.

    For the record, the National Cowboy Poetry Gathering is in Elko, Nev., next January. The 28th annual festival, a “week-long celebration of life in the rural West, featuring the contemporary and traditional arts of western ranching culture,” is expected to draw thousands of people, according to the festival’s website.

    • I’m not even remotely a Reid fan, but what exactly is wrong with this?

      I can cut a $200b from the budget without cutting anything substantial. Cut the F-35 program now, and cut the estimated $150b in defense spending which the GAO simply calls “waste.” That waste is just overspending identified by audits. It’s not even related to efficiency reviews, which the GAO thinks could cut as much as another $75b from just defense spending.

      I know it’s not as serious a cut as the $.3b of the NEA and NEH combined. But it’s a start.

  15. Who said this gem? “But we have to pass the [health care] bill so that you can find out what’s in it….”

    If you said Nancy Peeeelosie you’re correct.

  16. Gotta love Vine. DJ Alexander just tweeted out a video of Scott Crichton talking about a girl in their study hall who was nipping out. I’m sure Scott loves that this is on the internet now.

    vine.co/v/bPjQVqVxvEa

  17. Sounds like Pac12 networks will be broadcasting the spring game tomorrow at 7. Does anyone know if they’re also streaming it online?

  18. 60 Minutes are right wing fucktards?

    In November 2011, 60 Minutes alleged that Pelosi and several other member of Congress had used information they gleaned from closed sessions to make money on the stock market. The program cited Pelosi’s purchases of Visa stock while a bill that would limit credit card fees was in the House. Pelosi denied the allegations and called the report “a right-wing smear.

  19. Years from now, when we look back on Bill Clinton's presidency, its defining moment may well be Clinton's rationalization to the grand jury about why he wasn't lying when he said to his top aides that with respect to Monica Lewinsky, "there's nothing going on between us." How can this be? Here's what Clinton told the grand jury:

    "It depends on what the meaning of the word 'is' is. If the–if he–if 'is' means is and never has been, that is not–that is one thing. If it means there is none, that was a completely true statement….Now, if someone had asked me on that day, are you having any kind of sexual relations with Ms. Lewinsky, that is, asked me a question in the present tense, I would have said no. And it would have been completely true."

    The distinction between "is" and "was" was seized on by the commentariat when Clinton told Jim Lehrer of PBS right after the Lewinsky story broke, "There is no improper relationship." Chatterbox confesses that at the time he thought all these beltway domes were hyperanalyzing, and in need of a little fresh air. But it turns out they were right: Bill Clinton really is a guy who's willing to think carefully about "what the meaning of the word 'is' is." This is way beyond slick. Perhaps we should start calling him, "Existential Willie."

     

     

    • I couldn't care less about Lewinski. But I'll never forgive Clinton for signing Gramm-Leach-Bliley. As bad as idiot boy was, I can't blame him too much for building a crappy house when all he had was a crappy foundation.

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