So, this is a good time for everyone to put their predictions in writing. I don’t want to hear any criticism from anyone who doesn’t put their own predictions here in writing.
Mine: I do think Luton is better than Collins or DG. His completion % at the JC level concerns me. His 15 INTs at the JC level and self-proclaimed “Gun Slinger” mentality do concern me. I don’t see how that style is a good fit. I foresee a lot of interceptions. If he plays the full season, maybe 20INTs. I see Derek Andersen 2003-2004 type numbers in a best case scenario. Click that link. Do you see more upside? If so, what’s your argument?
Again, if you don’t write your exact thoughts on Luton and McM here, you have no base to criticize later. Because I’m sure if Luton turns out to be efficient (seems so unlikely) and productive (possible) I’ll never hear the end of it. Yet, when Seth tanked, Jake Thompson tanked in huge games, et al (hundreds of players I nailed now) not a single person acknowledged it. It’s super lame and cowardly by the butt hurt brigade. Man up and put what you think in writing.
I’m going with something like DA circa 2003-2004. Good yardage and TDs but tons of INTs and highly inefficient.
If he goes DA circa 2003 and we go 8-5, I’ll take it!
I honestly have no idea how Luton will perform. I will say that he’s been through spring, going through fall, and now been named the #1 starter so he gets all the #1 reps. If he doesn’t succeed, then it’s not because he wasn’t put in the best possible position to. Let’s hope the playcalling isn’t centered around him having to carry the offense.
DA benefitted quite a bit from SJ as RB that year. Had Newson and Hass that year go over 1000 yards.
Luton could benefit the same way. If Nall can stay healthy for the entire year, Luton won’t have to be much more than a game manager.
DA was barely above 50% comp rate. Made up for it with his arm by stretching the field.
Nailed hundreds of players lmao.
Butt hurt brigade strikes!
Make your prediction.
Butt hurt? I just found it comical. I think luton will be fine and can match mcm’s 2 tds to 1 int ratio. It’s hard to gauge what the exact numbers will be without knowing much about the offense this year. I would have been fine with mcm but im trusting the coaches (i dont know why) because they are the only ones who can see right now. Hopefully it works out. GO BEAVS!
Ill say 2700 yds 25 tds 12 ints 1 rush td 150 rush yds
Posting from other thread per Angry. My take from seeing Luton live in his last two games last year.
Will be interesting to see how Luton has improved his decision making. To me that is all that’s holding him back from being a legit Pac 12 starter. I posted a while back but for context after we signed Luton I went to watch him play locally here in so cal.
They played in my hometown against Cerritos college and then again in the Playoffs against Fullerton. These were the last two games of the year and therefore the last two real games he has played.
Against Cerritos (and Nick Mitchell) Luton looked really good but this was a down year for the Falcons. They usually have a few d1 dudes on both sides of the ball but this year there wasn’t nearly as much talent. He threw for like 470 yards and 5 td’s hitting a lot of slants, and post routes while extending plays and showing nice touch on some deep balls. I left the game pretty pumped about the Luton and still puzzled at how we ever recruited Nick Mitchell to play QB.
Luton only had a few questionable throws and those were the kind where he was just betting on his guy to win and separate. The type of throws where a good DB either breaks up or picks a few of those passes BUT A good WR makes the play. His guys made those contested catches all night but it was because the ball was in the right place.
In the Fullerton game which was the playoffs I saw much of the same for the first 3.5 quarters. Big arm and the ability to get the ball in tight windows mixed with some nice touch when needed against a much better opponent. There were a couple of quick hitters off audibles where he lofted balls over the backers to hit his slot or TE up the seam that were really impressive. Togiai could be his favorite target. The 4th quarter started good with Luton leading some big drives to get his team back in the game, but then quickly turned for the worse. Luton made two terrible throws for picks on back to back possessions with the game on the line and then got a little gun shy after that taking 2 or 3 drive killing sacks for holding onto the ball. They ended up losing the game to the eventual state champs and I’m sure there are some throws Jake would like back. Still had a solid line with like 400 yards and i think 5-6 td’s and brought his team back to get in the game but ultimately cost them with two bad picks.
All in all I see why GA and crew are high on the kid. He has some serious arm talent. The most we’ve had here since probably DA in my opinion. He has a stronger arm than both Moore or Mannion and mixes touch passes with zip balls well based on the route and coverage already. He’s also pretty mobile in pocket traffic from what I saw. He can elude the rush and then pick up right where he was in his progression and then make the right type of throw (with touch) to the open man. In both games I would say 30-40% of his completions were based on this type of play. He also will kill the blitz with the right route combinations. His zip on short throws/ slants and ability to see over the line could make for some big plays against blitz or press coverage.
The biggest weakness I saw was decision making. Some zone press coverage seemed to confuse him. Where he read man and completely ignored the help underneath for some dangerous throws (both picks were off that look) If coaching, experience at this level and film work can break that trend we should have a nice QB on our hands.
Can you give insight or rank his competition in JUCO (if you know a lot about JUCO teams)? From living in CA for a decade and glancing at that schedule, to me it looks very weak.
Tough to call as There’s this new thing happening where dudes are pooling up ( Aau/ camp
Team style) and going to play together making schools that haven’t been good good.Cerritos for instance was so weak last year when normally every year they are a top team. Historically though the Confrence Ventura is in is one of the best in the state. Which would put it a few steps above the best high school leagues down here as far a talent level goes. ThAt Fullerton team looked legit though and several of guys on that d are or will be at D1 schools (which is rare for them) and for the most part Luton carved them up.
25 TD’s, 15 INT’s, 3100 yards and a 61% completion rate. Not bad.
I have a different view than you, as long as the coaches make this a run first offense 60/40 split I think a gunslinger is exactly what you need because most of the passing game will be vertical (at least it should be) and gunslingers excel in vertical passing games. Yeah, he might throw more interceptions than MM would but I’m betting most will be on 3rd and long plays or deep jump balls. Those type of interceptions can be mitigated by the big plays that those risks will also lead too.
That said, the real problem with your logic here is that it will be impossible for us to win any argument because no one will know what MM would’ve done in the same role.
That said, the real problem with your logic here is that it will be impossible for us to win any argument because no one will know what MM would’ve done in the same role.
I’m not asking you to compare them. Just what you think Luton will do.
I think you enjoy being contrarian. You just predicted a first round baseball loss after the Luke thing, you liked Seth, etc. So, if you like Luton, put what you think his numbers will be here in writing.
If you’re 60/40 run there will be a lot of 3rds and short. Don’t see how a gun slinger is the appropriate QB for that. Honestly, I think Phillips and other coaches got in GA’s ear and want to run a certain style of offense that I’m not sure we’re suited to run.
I liked the process behind the choice of Seth, I am not a coach on this team. I don’t have the info they have. Sorry but that is reality. I still support that process. Year 1 was the year to gamble on a guy like Seth.
I did predict a 1st round loss and am glad I was wrong, the baseball team was stronger mentally than I figured they’d be.
I feel I made my prediction on Luton. 3rd and short means you run the ball (or take an unexpected shot downfield) in a 60/40 offense. Luton fits that well.
I don’t know about that process. We could have been told, “Look, we have three frosh in a new system who just don’t fit that system. We’re going to go with the guy who can hurdle for now because he looks athletic enough to not get too seriously hurt.
20/20 hindsight says they knew how bad that first year was going to be, but they kept up appearances for the sake of morale.
The purging should be complete. I would say this is the first year I have real expectations from GA’s team. I thought the QBs could have been handled better last year by platooning them. I also wanted that the first year, but it wouldn’t have been a spit in a lake. Last year would have been the opportunity to play them situationally.
We have yet to see a year where the starter or the #2 finish the season. It should be apparent why there are questions about the staff’s abilities to put this one little random player on the field. The story about wanting a “dual” QB but finding out you really want a pocket QB who can improvise sounds plausible because it’s the story of football. The best players have the best spacial awareness. It doesn’t matter where they come from or who they play against. They stand out as doing something near the ball more than anyone else.
I got to enjoy four games with Vince Young leading Madison to wins. He was all the talk, and those tickets weren’t easy to get. Thankfully, I was a guest. That kid could make the D look like the keystone cops without breaking the LOS. He would just run from one space to the next, and when the D finally caught up he would just run to the next space. And if they ever broke contain, he would just lop off 20 yards and run out of bounds… if you were lucky. I think GA thought SC would be the same type of player and did weigh that more heavily. But again, he knew what was going to happen.
I think Luton is very mobile with some of that spacial awareness. From what I can see on tapes I can find, he knows how to misdirect and scrape. He’s not a flier. But he will get a positive three and fall down before anyone knows what happened.
And then you add the arm. Dude throws BBs. Yes, there will be more freak plays. But that’s what makes football fun.
Bottom line: We’re bigger than the D. We will take three yards per play by sheer will. It’s our opponent’s problem to keep that average that low. Some will do it. More won’t.
I’m just glad they’ve made a decision this early. It should help build the team chemistry and allow the receivers to focus on one QB. This is already an improvement by GA and staff.
Agree on that one.
Luton is a relatively inexperienced passer and looks like last year was his first season really throwing the ball. I didn’t see the steady season progression I thought he had in terms of completion percentage and INTs:
http://www.cccaasports.org/sports/fball/2016-17/Conference/National_Northern/players/jakeluton5l20?view=gamelog&pos=qb
Calibeavs summary above was much appreciated.
Some of the factors I’m thinking about –
Luton’s receivers should be much better at this level and Phillips should improve the unit so maybe that helps his completion %.
He’ll obviously be throwing against much better defenders in the PAC. The first and last four games of the schedule don’t appear so daunting, but the middle third of UW/USC/CO/Stanford will be very challenging for him and it will be interesting to see how he responds mentally. This is also the time of year where fatigue and nagging injuries can start to set in a bit.
I’d feel better about his prospects for in-season improvement if OSU had a proven QB coah or “guru.” I’m not really sure about McGiven as OC/QB coach at this point. This season brings another change in offensive coordinator coaching assignment (now down to just McGiven) and I don’t see QB Quality Control coach Keaton best meeting Luton’s developmental needs as a passer. McGiven/Keaton were together at Utah State so I don’t see Keaton diversifying McGiven’s perspective but rather reinforcing it. This is where the coaching staff could use some non-Utah diversity and stability.
So:
Feed the stable of Nall/Pierce/Tyner, who will also catch the ball well too, throw to Togiai;
Hope Phillips can make Villamin productive and Collins consistent and more productive;
Hope the talented and fast FR WRs contribute at least by the back third of the season;
Keep in mind Andersen wants “explosive” downfield plays, and I expect something like:
55% completion rate and 2:1 INT ratio.
If a good portion of his INTs are essentially like punts from appropriate field position, maybe they don’t hurt so much.
Even with these numbers, if they run the ball well and produce TOs on defense I think the Beavers could win 8 games on the high end, 7 most likely.
Steady progression? I guess not, but progression as the season went on and he got more experience, definitely.
From the numbers your link supplied:
First 5 games:
15 TD
8 INT
49.92% completion percentage
Last 6 games:
25 TD
7 INT
62.55% completion percentage.
That’s a nice improvement, I have no idea as far as strength of opponents as the season went on so that could always be a factor.
Not gonna make a prediction on a player I’ve never seen play before but I’ll trust that the coaches made the right decision. If he’s not good then McM is at the very least a capable game manager
What are the odds that McM transfers? I believe he has graduated and there is still a month left before the season starts. I would assume there is a D2 or lower level D1 school that would love to have a QB with PAC12 experience and has 2 years of eligibility left. I would HATE to see him leave but under the circumstances it would not be surprising.
He graduated with a BS in Public Health.
http://www.osubeavers.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=4011
I’m not sure why he’d transfer to a lower division at this point. Perhaps more playing time, but at a lower level and starting over? It’s not like he’s working on getting to the NFL.
Even if #2 at OSU he has a good chance to get significant minutes, maybe play in a bowl game. He’ll have fun with his teammates he’s known for awhile.
Would suck if we went to lower division and got a serious knee injury or something like that.
He should transfer, but I don’t think he will because (a) he loves Corvallis and (b) probably knows he will get a shot to play at some point this year. Next year he will transfer if he doesn’t become the starter at some point this year.
Though, I hope he transfers this year. GA and crew have dicked him around long enough. For his own future he should transfer today.
Maybe this is why they named Luton the starter so early in the process? Maybe McM has told them he intends on transferring? If this is the case we will know sooner rather than later.
I don’t get why we have to project MM running away every time he doesn’t step up and earn the starting job. If he runs away, then he isn’t the competitor I think he is.
That being said, I think he stays here to further his education on the football team’s dime. I don’t know why it always has to be about getting beat up every week in order to get a free ride. He will likely stay and complete his MPH. And he might put a pretty good dent in the PhD program… on the football team’s dime.
Why does he have to run away?
You sure he’s graduated? He’s a junior, so that would mean he’d have graduated in 3 years as an athlete…
Very impressive if true. But I’m pretty skeptical.
Looks like you’re right. Very impressive.
3800 yards, 33 TDs, 16 INT – Barely get 7 wins and we go on to destroy Nebraska in a bowl game with 400 rushing yards between all of our RBs. ESPN highlight of the week is gum falling out of MR’s mouth on the sideline as he watches the clock count down to zero with his mouth agape and quivering.
This satisfies many wonts.
Will future generations make fu of us for picking low hanging fruit?
Will we care?
Post practice video (and occasional audio) interview with GA on the QB decision amd several other topics. Sounds like trevorris johnson is practicing now. No updates on Evans, as far as I could hear.
https://youtu.be/bZN9j1C8xVE
Seth Collins starting at inside WR. Interesting. Could be a matchup nightmare.
Isaiah Hodgins starting, as predicted.
David Morris already standing out. No surprise again.
Haha, Luton liked my tweet. Gotta hand it to him for having a sense of humor.
https://twitter.com/angrybeavs/status/892500293509726208
Pretty tall receiving corp with Villy/Collins/Hodgins and Togiai all out there. Also tough guys to bring down with an arm tackle, so I would expect decent yards after catch from that group.
Less opportunity for hurdles on the inside though
Not thrilled with Villy starting. Hopefully someone better steps up by the end of camp. I like Allen and Taylor more. They’re probably starting Villy for his experience…don’t want two freshman out there. But he might get beat out at some point. I thought Aaron Short’s JUCO film looked really good, too. He looked a lot like Davante Adams in terms of body type, agility, and skill set.
Hopefully they find a role for Bradford. Maybe on returns. He has some good wheels.
I’m not worried about Villy. He’s a pretty tough matchup if he’s healthy. I really think the last 2 years he was affected by some nasty hits (hospital ball at arizona in 2015 and minnesota last year) I like Short and Bradford as kick return guys. Both have good speed and hands. Those 2 and Hernandez make really good backup receiver options. Kolby Taylor may not see the field this year, but could be another nice option.
Christian Wallace on punt returns could be intriguiing as well. He was pretty good with the ball in his hands in high school. Love his size and speed in the open field.
Villy seems a step slower and his hands haven’t been as good. He was good with Mannion. Something’s been off ever since. If he can return to that form he’ll be good.
Seth in the slot is very intriguing. I can see him taking quick slants to the house.
WRs need to also block without doing the Nikegon thing and holding. That gamut has been run. Even they don’t get away with it more than 33% of the time.
Villy is a big body with soft hands. He can knock a couple mouthy CBs off the field on run plays just for fun.
I like this group of receiver mostly because of how it taking the field stresses a defense. Noah and Seth inside… does the d cover them with lbs? Huge mismatch for both. Does a d run dime? Run all day over that with our giant receivers. We should have a lot of leverage blocking to the outside. This will be the largest Oregon state offense to ever take the field.
Chances are we see lots of nickel stuff which I think plays really well for Noah. Tall qbs throw well on short over the middle stuff. Could be a fun offense.
Yes, but they have to get separation, QB has to get them the ball in time/accurately, and then the WRs must finish the catch, all of which have been the issue the past 2 years.
This group is better. By Bolden leaving we get an upgrade right there. Noah could be really nice if he stays healthy. Him and Seth both working the middle is unstoppable in theory, given our RBs. Again, all about the QB getting them the ball and everyone finishing the plays.
Seth gets monster separation running cross routes. I can’t imagine Noah can’t get seperation against a lb.
Colorado state will stack the box and bring pressure early against Jake. I would. We will know what we have with Jake very very early. My hope/belief is that Jake seems to make very fast reads has a very quick release and can see the field very well. We will find out soon enough.
One positive of Jake on film is he does have a very quick release. Problem with that if he makes the wrong read he’ll have a lot of INTs, too.
Interesting series of tweets.
https://twitter.com/The_Real_Bob/status/892466725114990592
https://twitter.com/The_Real_Bob/status/892470758781231104
Not sure this was ever a battle. GA seems to have made up his mind before camp, taking slights at “game managers” early on and such. Those short, efficient passes are good things, and GA is under-valuing them.
Shit, apparently beating the Quacks for the first time in almost a fucking decade doesn’t account for much this day and age. Dee Andros is rolling over in his grave! I like McM, smart guy, solid skills. Riley recruited him, so that we would shut up about immobile QB’s. Not sure he ever planned to start him. I guess we will see about Luton, but I don’t like my starters being Idaho Vandals cast offs. It was a fait acompli. Is that strike two if GA misses on this one?
Strike 4:
Seth, Garrettson, Luton, dude as Wisconsin (ask Beavgopher).
I got some shit in here for saying that Garrettson was nothing special. Nobody cared that I actually watched him play and knew he was not a savior for the program ( an upgrade over Mitchell and Collins, yes). This is Power Five fucking football. If you’re recruited by San Jose St , Utah St or Idaho it should at least raise a damn eyebrow.
People wanted him to be the savior. People want Luton to be the savior. We’ve had awful QB play in Seth and Garrettson. Fans are really irrational in August. Reality then kicks in…
People want a savior? I think people just want a middle-tier conference QB so the RBs pile up yards.
Wasn’t Luton riding the pine behind Linehan at Idaho?
Ryan Nall beat the ducks, not Marcus.
MM is and always was a fucking pocket passer with limited mobility who was afraid to run until McGiven told him he better fucking run next time instead of doing that fucking withering standing fetal sack that all Riley QBs see to develop over time.
His pocket presence was limited. His footwork was nil. His wind-up could be timed on a sun dial. And his arm makes him available for about 70 percent of the playbook.
The argument I’ve had to watch for the last however many days:
Is 70% knowledge of 70% of the playbook better than 50% knowledge of 100% of the playbook?
Granted, suck it.
Other than that, someone cares.
I also don’t blame MM for that tendency. He overcame it against monumentally poor run defenses to end the year. But those are big and fast people who apparently are trying to do the same thing they were trying to do to the guy ahead of him on the depth chart.
I’m told Luton already has that game sense for misdirection and pocket feel. The more comparable QB type for him would be Carson Wentz. No idea what he has on the mental side in terms of academics.
Bottom line, nobody knows…I think I’ll trust GA till proven wrong.
I’ve always liked MM. He seems like someone I’d want to hang out with and I’ve always rooted for him as an underdog. We were so beaten down in GA year 1 with bad QB play that MM’s C level play seemed great to us.
I don’t have any special affinity for Luton, but I’m glad the staff made their pick early. His lack of experience means he has more immediate upside due to being farther down on the learning curve. I think we all hope the staff made the right pick.
And to the MM fans: just remember, QB’s get hurt, too.
“He seems like someone I’d want to hang out with ”
I happened to sit by Marcus McMaryion Sr at the spring game. He was awesome. Super friendly guy who loved talking to the fans.
Damn, I read a little blurb from GA about Christian Wallace “battling to make the travel squad” WTF? Screw these pundits and their ‘stars”.
He switched from offense to defense. Makes semse that he might not be 100% game ready at CB yet, but the potential is there.
http://www.gazettetimes.com/sports/beavers-sports/football/osu-football-wallace-making-strides-at-corner/article_75ae0ee2-6c39-5a79-ba74-f8abfcb73c29.html
Seeing DA’s stat line reminds me of the one great scew-up by DE: not red-shirting DA as a freshman. As I recall, he played him because he didn’t think he’d last four years in Corvallis. Wrong. DA might have been truly great as a 5th year senior.
I remember that DA started out like gangbusters as a soph but then reality hit when the Beavs played SC. DA may have been the most frustrating QB I’ve seen in my 18 or so years as a fan. He’d be brilliant one moment, and then hit the opposing DB right on the numbers the next. He beat the Ducks twice, so there’s that.
Then I look at Nall/Pierce/Tyner/Jackson and I think this year’s backfield may be better than ’01 with Simonton and Jackson behind DA.
With that prologue, I admire McMaryon’s sticktoitiveness. Yes, it was Nall who wrecked the Ducks but MM had a couple key conversions and never made a game-breaking mistake. Still, I like going with Luton this year for the same reason I preferred Mannion over Vaz at the beginning of ’14. There’s more upside potential with Lute (how’s that for a nickname?) and given the Beavs predicament and the way UO is loading up with their next recruiting class I think you have to go big.
Still, I’d feel a lot better about that if MM stays around. He may be the ideal back up.
“Lute (how’s that for a nickname?” Fine with me – when I first heard his name – I thought it was Jay Gluten which could then progress to Free? or Intolerant? Hmm – in fact, perhaps he had a form of celiac disease last spring. As you can tell, I was prepared to carry this a long way. So, Lute it is.
That USC game was brutal. What made it worse was that our D played really well that day.
I would like to know what team honestly thinks about this. GA did this at Wisconsin and as the camp went on reports kept coming out how the preordained starter was playing like shit and being totally outplayed by the guy who played the previous year.
My prediction:
Luton makes enough mistakes to cost us the CSU game..
Plays better against a bad opponent to give false hope to GA.
Gets benched in the Minnesota game and McM starts the rest of the year.
All this assumes he sticks around.
Saw this from Christian Wallace.
“I love Jake,” corner Christian Wallace said. “He reads our defense well, he studies like 22 hours a day and he’s just a great person. There’s never a bad moment with Jake.”
http://www.gazettetimes.com/sports/beavers-sports/football/osu-football-luton-named-starting-quarterback/article_7c9ed9a2-9b1b-5a4a-810f-545a7d1891ed.amp.html
He is only getting two hours of sleep a day. He will be exhausted!
And if 3M transfers, then the season is in the shitter and GA’s seat warms up. Luck ‘o da Beavs!
If Luton stinks his seat should rightfully warm up.
That’s a pretty good prediction. Can’t you imagine a fumbled snap on the first play?
As soon as I saw Luton named the starter I thought 1-2 after 3. The WRs and RBs are good, though, and might make this work. That’s my hope.
Yea big factor. BEtween a Mentally right. Villy, Seth Togiai and Hodgins one of those guys should have an advantage most plays. Luton just has to get the ball out on time to give them a chance which he seems more than capable of.
“Linebacker Bright Ugwoegbu has seen “nothing but poise” from Luton
“He steps in the pocket and delivers a great fastball,” Ugwoegbu said. “On point, accurate, and he’s a leader on the offense. He’s very vocal. I’m excited to see what he can do for this team.””
http://scout.com/college/oregon-state/Article/Day-6-Rewind-Players-react-to-Jake-Luton-being-named-starter-wha-105707946
Sweet, we got Aaron Rodgers 2.0.
This beaverblitz video is just so awkward. Finger over lens, squinting in the sun, forced dialogue, poor audio.
Where can I subscribe for more of this?!!
https://youtu.be/sWm2dzXCXVo
You can just send me money on a monthly basis, and I’ll suggest better YT links than that.
I also provide an online gambling service. If you send me money every month, I’ll return 68% to you at the end of the year, and I’ll declare you a winner.
I kinda liked the known quantity aspect of McM, still, not going to gripe about the decision to give Luton the job. His height, quick release, and “image” may very well be what this team needs.
The play calling and performance of the O-line are of more concern than the difference between Lute and McM. I like that the decision has been made and had feared that it may have dragged out for the first few games. I’ll go on record as giving Lute a 75% chance of holding up his end. Not as a super star, but as an adequate game manager and passing threat. Still, there is that 25% chance that he throws enough picks in the first two games that his confidence is shot beyond repair. I’ll bet/hope that doesn’t happen.
As wannabeav indicated, I hope McM stays around.
If the O actually involves 2/3 running plays, and makes good use of the TE then I’ll take a 1:1 td: int ratio from Lute (say, something like 16:16 with several of the ints functioning as punts).
According to this guy, Luton looked good today.
https://oregonstate.rivals.com/news/oregon-state-practice-report-jake-luton-named-starting-qb
WR/TE/RBs should be exciting.
One must always take these camp reports with a major grain of salt. Heard the same shit about Leidner for three years and at the end of the day, he still sucked. GA has cast his lot, let’s hope he made the right QB choice………….for once.
Not sure if mentioned above after quick skim, but I believe GA has mentioned they need Luton for the deep ball threat. It is easier on the defense if they know you cant go long. Triple M could not go long. I hope to hell Luton can.
Go Beavs.
Deep outs and flares are also more effective when a QB with pace gets it there on time.
If they named Luton the starter, it has to be no other reason than to be able to stretch the field vertically. Garrettson couldn’t do that at all; MCM was only able to throw the ball consistently up to 20 yards.
With that said, our run game needs to be equal to the end of last year if Luton is to survive the whole season without injury. I’m confident the defense will keep us in games, but it has come down to the offense to perform at their best to assert themselves to beat the other team with touchdowns. The fact that DG and MMcM hasn’t separated themselves from one another in the competition to take the #2 spot tells me that they are both able to run the offense, but are both inconsistent in their ability to stretch the field.
Worst case scenario we win 5 games(@CSU, PSU, Minnie, @CAL, @ARIZ) Grant it, 3 of those are on the road and we haven’t won a road game yet. Otherwise, I say 8 wins(@CSU,PSU,Minnie,@WSU or Furd, @CAL,@AZ,ASU,@Civil War) We should be 3-2 in the North and 2-2 in the south for a conference record of 5-4 with winning all 3 non-conference games.
Question: Why do people have to screw with MM’s initials? Is it more fun to spend more time typing more letters for no reason?
Because of the confusion when Mason Moran was a qb on the roster?
The Rodent Bowl will be a coin flip. I actually believe the probability of a Gopher win went up with Luton being named the starter and the increased risk of mistakes. With MMcM (how is that Jack) I would have had da Beavs by a touchdown.
I don’t think MaMcMa moves the needle. And I have yet to see what the Golden Goobers have… other than a poor W/L record against teams from North Dakota lately.
With Luton, I hope we get better QB play than the ducks did last year with what’s his face.
I think what needs to be said has been said when it comes to luton, or any of our qb’s. Need to stretch the field and do it consistently in order to open up our lethal run game. I picture our offense looking something like texas’. Smash mouth run game with over the top or quick hitter routes in the passing game.
It’s also important to point out how huge our offense is. Multiple 230+ pound backs with speed to burn in the open field. With a strong armed big qb and then 3 6’3-6’5 wide outs who can blow past you in the secondary and are big enough to make the 50/50 plays on the ball. I’m optimistic about our offense if we get good quarterback play.
And I forgot about Noah! This offense has so many weapons there will be a mismatch in our advantage almost every time we snap the ball.
That’s why I thought McM would have been picked, an experienced game manager to utilize those weapons. I suppose the coaches felt that his experience didn’t offset his perceived slow decision making and inability to make the longer passes.
Decision’s been made, we’ll see if Lute can add quick/correct decision making to his apparent stronger arm.
I was gonna say from what I’ve heard from GA’s interviews it seems he likes Lutons quick decision making and ability read the defense as he’s 6’7 and MM is a lot shorter than him.
perceived?
apparent?
You forgot alleged. But don’t believe your lyin’ eyes.
Layin’? Lie-in’?
Equivocally putative ?
Yes… we’re half-way on the road to somewhere.
Apparent because I’ve not seen him in game situations at this level; perceived because decision making is situational and we only have the opinions of observers and our own eyes on ONE of the guys under discussion. At least that’s how this old beav sees it, others are free to opine otherwise, and with absolute certainty.
All of what you described is consistent with Andersen’s goal of getting longer/bigger/stronger athletes on the field.
While I don’t necessarily agree that Villamin can “blow past” people, the rest of what you describe is a pretty impressive offense to field; at least physically.
Now can Luton take advantage of it with good decision making? It will be interesting and entertaining to watch.
Yeah usually how villamin gets open is he manhandles his corner off the press with his size/strength. But if they don’t press him and have a safety over the top he got shut down like last year. Will be interesting to see it unfold here in a few weeks!
My prediction: If O-line is good, whoever takes snaps will be good. If O-line is bad, whoever takes snaps will be bad. Selah.
Luton will approach 3000 yds/25 yds/300 yds rush/3 rush yds.
The downfield passing will be the key to this season. If teams cheat to stop nall, one on one matchups outside will be open. This is the year that we see Baldwin’s impact on offensive productivity. Look back at the qb at cause when
he was there. I’m excited because ga is taking a risk and not being cautious.
Nall may still get 1500 yds and 20 yds. If the Beavs average 32-35 PGA/game they win 8 games.
I’m still not convinced that Baldwin is “just a TE coach ” on this staff.
I’m thinking higher ceiling than MM or DG.
MM has progressed, but he is not a great thrower of the ball, and he can still get that “deer in the headlights” against good D’s.
DG just can’t seem to recapture what he had at Utah St…..seriously, he was nails there…..he is inconsistent….gritty, but inconsistent…..maybe the higher level of defense exposed him a bit, I dunno.
Luton has the phyiscal characteristics……agree that the comp % and int’s are concerning……I guess we’ll see if he, and our staff can develop him into a better QB….They did it with MM….he was HORRIBLE, and now he is decent, and actually plays with a bit of confidence.
I’m just a fan, don’t know the details like most of you. But as a book editor, I think GA threw away a great story line, along with, I think, some of our ability to win the first two games on the schedule.
I don’t agree with most on this site that a quick decision was best for the team. What was best for the team the last two years was choice #2, and the team responded well with a midseason change in quarterbacking. Consistency in that regard can be oveerrated.
But what a great story it would have been, that the guy who was consistently passed over–but in the end helped rescue what could be salvaged from the last two seasons–was at last rewarded by leading this team as this new season begins. And under this story line, of course Luton gets in games, so he can start getting used to P12 play and speed. If he’s the QB of the future, those are the times when we would find out. That would have made sense to me.
But as it is, I also wonder about the timing of this announcement–just when we were beginning to get word from various press sources that MM was getting the upper hand in competition. Gotta nip that in the bud–that’s my take on GA’s announcement so early in fall camp. This decision was made long ago, in my opinion.
Five-wiin season. That’s my prediction, with this QB decision and GA rolling the dice yet again.
I hope I’m wrong and it’s more like seven, as I was thinking last week. I hope maybe I can become a Luton fan.
But those are hopes, and Angry asked for predictions. Under mine, maybe MM can help rescue a third season under GA in the end. But maybe he goes, and I wouldn’t blame him if he did.
It’s impossible to prove the negative that the first choice for QB was the worst choice these past two years. If MM starts last year, he very well may have been broken halfway through the UW game too.
I think MM likes being the #2 QB. He is a lot better than he was, and he will get better still. But he’ll never be amazing. What he does really well is concentrate on what he has to do to be successful in the future by using his time to advance his studies at a quick pace. I think if he’s a starter at the beginning of the fall quarter, maybe he doesn’t do as well in school. And he gets beat up every week. As it turns out, he gets to play late in the season when all his schoolwork is done and tired teams have to try to figure out his fresh face.
He also carries influence with the team and gets to learn the logistics of dealing with all of them while also having the HC’s ear most of the time. He gets to learn these things (think: coaching), save his body (think: his degree) and enjoy these last couple years of being a kid who gets to play a game.
I’d take that gig any day.
I’m still awaiting A@A’s predictions, as well as the rest of the butt hurt brigade.
What are the entry requirements to get into this brigade? Asking for a friend.
Rear entry?
Is that the part that hurts?
Good to know.
I already gave your homie a nickname, Mc3rdstring. Which, for the record, you laughed at.
homie?
really?
1998 requests… if you’re thinking about using Wassssup!!!… don’t.
I like it and think he will be good. I like his attributes and we need a guy who can take a hit in the pocket and still keep playing. The offense looks like it will be good to better than good…if we stay healthy. Depth is a concern. You don’t bring in a top JC qb to be a backup.
The bigger concern is the OL, it might not matter if its MM or Lute or DG if they can’t protect on key passing downs or block for the run well enough, none of this matters. We lost alot up front, but hopefully Fred, Brendel, and Lavaka can lead the way as Moore and Sumner grow into their positions. Moore’s production is probably going to be key. Again depth doesn’t look good in this group, we have been beseiged with injuries the last five years it would be nice to have some beaver juice on the trainers table this season.
My prediction for Luton: 2700 yards, 62% completion rate, 23 TDs/ 10 INTs.
You’re now free to complain later in the season.
Don’t make a prediction then criticize Angry’s prediction……Boom! You are part of the BHB.
Get in line.
Ducks just got another 4* verbal commit. From one of our top OL targets, Steven Jones. That one stings
Yep, saw that too. We are last in PAC-12 recuriting now on 247sports.com. We seem to have no recuriting momentum at all. I want to see some good signs for us on a recuriting front but not seeing it right now. It seems like we are so far behind the curve in every aspect related to football.
Do they have any ships left?
Will Luke divorce Elena then marry Penelope?
What happens when plate tectonics decide they want revenge?
Are you talking scholarships? They have like 9 more to hand out. I dont know the answer to your second questions. Hopefully the third question doesnt happen in our life time.
If we are going air raid then it takes a quarterback who can perform extremely quick reads with precision. Unfortunately I don’t see Luton being that guy. He might have decent yardage but I agree, watching the spring game made me question if he will be an int machine.
McM is more mobile and just because he isn’t a prototypical air raid/WCO QB it makes sense to play him. Look at Manziel at A & M. Air raid with spread option mixed in who could make the reads and sling it. I’d prefer someone like that who can make plays on the move, especially because I’m not confident in our O-line.
With the weather being how it is in the PNW I agree with Angry that air raid makes zero sense. I’d rather have a mobile QB that can be a threat to run in order to force the D to respect him as well as opening up passing lanes deep if they load the box.
And don’t count out D1 experience that McM has over JC Luton.
I just wanna win at least 8 games, I hate QB controversy. Go Beavs.
We’re not going air raid.
Settle down.
And MM is not more mobile.
You’re drunk.
“And don’t count out D1 experience that McM has over JC Luton.”
Luton started as a freshman at Idaho after 2 or 3 QBs went down. Maybe not the same level, but experience none the less.
“I hate QB controversy.”
Then you should be happy because the starting qb has been selected.
I think MM is gone. Per Gina just now it was 1-Luton 2-DG and 3-Blount. Blount is horrible, no way he is better than MM
That would be a bullshit move… unless there’s a better public health program out there. If he goes to Stanford (or somewhere comparable), I take all that back.
Also… injury?
You’d think this would be all over the twittersphere if true.
Now watch, Marcus McMaryion grad transfers to the ducks, lol…
I kid, but they are a team that desperately needs QB depth.
It wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility that he has academic scholarship opportunities to study his field at a couple different places.
Beats getting your head knocked in every Saturday… well, Friday… maybe Thursday?
It would be a rational decision.
Yeah watch him transfer to O and then beat the Beavs…
whatever
> Per Gina just now it was 1-Luton 2-DG and 3-Blount.
She said he had one drive with the threes during the open portion of practice. That doesn’t mean that’s the depth chart.
But, I definitely could see him leave since he’s graduated.
Maybe an injury?
Again, why? Why would he transfer? Does he think he has talent to go to the next level? It seems like most players who make that move, think they will go to the NFL. That is decidedly not Marcus.So he would transfer to another school, have to learn their playbook, have no guarantee of starting and risk getting beat up so that he can play two more years, maybe?
If McM is going to transfer GA has himself out on the limb and if Luton does not workout all the goodwill GA has built up will be gone.
I was not convinced McM was the guy (not sure we have “the guy” on this team) but with McM leaving the safety blanket is gone.
My prediction, Luton will be feast or famine all year long. Lots of TD passes, lots of picks, lots of yards and ~60-65% completions. We’ll be much better in the passing game overall and the offense will improve by around a TD per game.
65% is elite efficiency.
Don’t get all progressive on us now.
We have to figure out… um… things.
I thought GA and the improved facilities would bring better recruiting……so far it ain’t happenin
We’re still a 4 win team coming off a 2 win season, coming off a 5 win season.
Need to win this season if you want to see more high star recruits, in my opinion.
We gotta win this season for sure…..but, imo, it’s concerning that GA is pulling up the rear in pac 12 recruiting……he’s tryin to pull 4 stars, but mostly striking out…..meanwhile, down the road elite talent is lining up to play for hole…..I’m just surprised. I figured more of the higher rated recruits might choose Ando over willie.
Petras will likely end up a 4-star. We need to keep him. Could be great.
I think this is just a bad year recruiting. But you can survive a bad year recruiting. I do think that we better have a six win season or better to really build some momentum. If this team shows that toughness ga wants. And we start to beat up on some perceived superior teams at the point of attack I think we could finish the recruiting season in ok shape and be in better shape for next year.
Five wins we can probably still sell the building the team up the right way narrative. 4 wins we will have to just settle for guys that are happy for that p5 offer. This is a big year for ga. Colorado state and Minnesota are crazy important.
It’s the lack of tartan.
… elite tartan
Don’t like these two, but they put together a good podcast today.
https://soundcloud.com/dam-podcast/panic-on-the-offensive-line
I just listened to the podcast today. It was good. Its sounds like Willie and Co really put the high pressure sales pitch on the recurits. Saying if you dont commit today we may pull your offer. Keep in mind these commits have really good schools to choose from. So what happens if Oregon has a bad year? That is just so disgusting in my book that they put pressure on kids like that… The podcasts they seemed most concerned with the o-line coming together. I guess we cant stress enough the importance that GA needs to have a good year and make a bowl game.
Without true practice reports it’s hard to know what is really happening with regard to the qb competition.
Is GA stuck on having ‘his guy’ be ‘the guy’? Or does he see a higher ceiling with Luton than with MM? I’m guessing the latter.
MM throws a nice ball, nice spiral, but I remember seeing times last year where he did have deer in the headlights look. The too-smart-for-his-own-good guy that maybe over thinks each scenario. Sometimes you have to just play and move to the next play.
I haven’t watched Luton’s film and not sure I would be able to have a fair comparison based on the competition level. But he is currently going against the same players as MM. Daily.
If Luton is even close to the level of MM at this stage that seems like it says more than anything. MM should be clearly ahead in every measure based on his experience in the program.
I’ll withhold any ‘prediction’ based on lack of information. I don’t have strong feeling one way or the other so will trust the people that watch practice daily. Have they made correct decisions in the past with regard to qb? In hindsight, probably not, but they didn’t have a great batch to start with. And not having recruited one into the program after three years is a legitimate gripe.
Too wishy washy. Sorry, you won’t be able to complain later.
:zing:
From camel tOe-live practice report-
Andersen said Tuesday that the coaching staff has not yet determined if Garretson or Marcus McMaryion will be Jake Luton’s backup at quarterback. Wednesday, Darell got the reps with the second team, while Conor Blount got one drive with the third-teamers.
I admit I have no eye for evaluating talent. And since I can not see the practices, not even my less educated eye can inform me. However, I wonder if having McMarion work with the second and third teams is not an indictment on his place in the hierarchy but rather taking advantage of his experience and skillset to OJT the two and three deep. That would be wise in my view.
I am predicting numbers that are varied but similar for Luton and McMarion. Both are going to be needed to play minutes due to physical beatings/game circumstances.
I visit this site every day to get news and opinion and appreciate it greatly. Thanks.
We may not get to see practices, but in today’s less than 2 minute highlight video, Jake gets picked off twice….
https://twitter.com/BeaverAthletics/status/892938620138512384
Mid-season form. He doesn’t need more stinkin’ reps!
Funny how within 24 hours of being named the starter, we hear McM is really throwing efficiently in the short and mid range game, amd in that same range we see two INTs from JL.
To be fair, Andersen said he wants a guy who can throw the ball downfield. He didn’t say to our guys…
Was just going to say the same. Luton can throw long picks. It’s sexier
Oh for fuck’s sake. Arnold is a defensive player, did you expect them to show highlights of them getting burned over the top the whole video?
Who doesn’t love some good confirmation bias?
You’re right, those picks shouldnt count because these were defensive highlights. My bad…
You’re right. A quarterback that throws an interception is garbage. What was i thinking?
For fuck’s sake is right. If MM threw two INTs it would be used against him. With Luton, it’s just practice and means nothing.
They tried to find some footage of McM getting picked off down field. Turns out he can’t throw that far.
Lol
Get used to it!
Both throws were forced into coverage, too. Lol.
So this is what it’s like to have an exciting “gun slinger” who can throw it 70 yards.
Hopefully they are teaching the offense how to tackle.
None of this matters if the O-line is trash, like it has been for the past 1.5 seasons. Had McM 1 more second to throw we wouldn’t need a JUCO quarterback to come in and compete.
McM can run the fake handoff play where he then takes it for 10+ yards. It is a very nice play as we saw in the Civil War when Nall and the RBs are being productive and they want to try to limit that. Thus even if Luton starts I could see bringing in McM to change the pace and add his threat here and there. I am sure a 2nd QB will end up getting atleast decent time this year.
Blount should redshirt. With Luton named starter it should be McM and then Garretson after that. Those 3 should be all we need this year and Blount can use the year to improve his knowledge of the offense and mental side of the game.
Is this the future of OSU football? I don’t recall ever having a stable full of RBs. You want tartan? I got about a half ton of tartan here.
http://www.gazettetimes.com/sports/beavers-sports/football/osu-football-johnson-fitting-in-with-beavers/article_28779ae1-4c26-50f4-8573-e5a5b824b986.html
I get excited thinking about our backfield! If Luton can keep safeties from creepin up, and they have to respect our passing game……and our O line is competent, we should be able to eat the clock with our running game.
Which is why his better than MMM deep ball is important.
And… this is only one step away from popsicle fights… a slippery slope.
http://lebanon-express.com/gallery/gallery-beavers-stay-cool-in-bend/collection_cb29c45a-5193-536d-a4eb-5dc14a82cfcb.html#17
Nice Pun, but disagree on water balloon fights/popsicles after practices vs. Slip ‘N Slides. I enjoy Slip ‘N Slides when it’s hot out. I’m tempted to set one up for my daughter in our backyard here in Omaha, NE(wife and I moved out of state for work and to be closer to her friends and family. She’s a Lincolnite).
Keep calm.
Nobody really cares about popsicles and water balloon fights. If you asked most here, you would probably get a response about how it’s necessary to take breaks and cool off when exerting yourself like this, especially during two-a-days in the heat.
It was that OSU wasn’t treated like any other football team in that we got details about development, injury, depth charts, etc. Instead, we got whole days of fluff that told us not much of anything. And the staff was encouraging this coverage.
It was a neat deal.
But hey… at least we got free popcorn and a lost and found out of it.
Why do our camp unis look better than the ones we have to wear during the season?
http://lebanon-express.com/gallery/gallery-osu-football-camp-day/collection_0448eb77-c5cf-5dcd-8155-d97cd911e15c.html#1
Beav uni’s are among the worst in all CFB. The all white ones are OK, but the rest suck.
I like the one with the bright orange top as well.
The all black is horrible. Look like the ninja blacksox from Baseball Stars.
I’m a sucker for the black with strip in the middle of the helmet. Don’t hate.
I really like the black uni with the orange and white stripe also. It looks classic to me. I even bought a cooks jersey when those uniforms came out.
I can’t not hate those unis. All the white stripey things all over the sleeves and helmets are just funny looking. Stick a pineapple on top and grab some castanets. And then it looks like they used so much up top that they ran out of stripes for the pants.
You can blame Communism for that one. We don’t have enough stripes to finish the pants, boys. So we’re going to have to make due and share. Thanks Communism!
Then the orange is devoid of any white. So it doesn’t match the black or white unis and only makes sense by itself, which really isn’t great.
Yes the black ones are like clown costumes. Nike…” let’s see if they will wear this shit LOL.”
The orange ones are the wrong color.
Yea they really fucked up the uni thing. With our colors what would have been dope is if they kept everything solid and muted and then used the Orange to make the Uni pop.
A grey option for instance would have been smart. But just generally black or orange without the full body stripes going on. The practice ones look good because they are simplistic.
These OK State grays are probably my favorite uni. Not sure why they hated on us:
http://cdn2.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1026983/60661_Louisiana_Lafayette_Oklahoma_St_Football.jpg
@ Beavergopher entirely the wrong color!! I wonder who approved these? No one had the balls to step up and say yea.. Our feedback is let’s just see round 2! Scrap round 1 in it’s entirety.
I like that it’s the wrong color. A little more red in it, which opens things up. Orange is a really bad color.
They put the wrong name on them. “I like it that it’s the wrong school'”
Orange is the new black.
WAY TOO EARLY PREDICTION:
Defense/Special teams: 24 sacks, 20 INT, 14 fumble recoveries and have 4 punt/kickoffs returned for a TD this season, 25 punts downed inside the 20, 5 inside the 5
Offense: 2200 yards rushing combined for all running backs, 75% scoring in the red zone via TD’s, 15 INT, 3 lost fumbles, 2300 yards combined receiving on the year, and giving up 13 sacks
Orange is a great color for sports teams and brands. In everyday life your right it’s terrible.
Unless you are a construction worker.
… or a traffic cone.
not sure if you’ve all see this from Isaac
garcia – says all the right things, but I guess we’ll never know the real deal.
https://twitter.com/swish_nation/status/892932198919159809
Lanesha is proud of him, so that speaks volumes.
“Orange is a great color….”!!!
and
“Cocaine is a hell-of-a drug”!!!
Luton Predictions (based on at least close to full season): 2500-3000 yards. 25-30 touchdowns. 10 to 15 interceptions.
The only important prediction: 8 wins is what I am going with. Just what my gut is telling me. We will see how good or bad my gut is.
If we go by gut size, my gut says 14-15 wins this year!
Has McM been confirmed at practice since he was given the shaft? Thrown any passes?
Kinda a dumb question. Just as dumb. Has McM been confirmed not at practice, or to be throwing less passes.
Yes, Gina confirmed he had less throws yesterday at practice than today in the short period open to the media.
OK, does anyone have any lame rumors about McM that probably aren’t true?
Nevermind, Oregonian confirmed he was at practice today.
I think he’s Episcopalian.
Anyone else notice how big Trevoris Johnson looks?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DGVNYV-V0AAQUIS.jpg
Makes Tyner look like a lightweight….
Is Tyner in that photo?
I think Tyner has the baseball hat on.
Ah, you’re right, didn’t recognize him since he looks quite a bit heavier than I remember.
You guys are still reading the Oregonian, huh? I guess that’s why they know they can publish the Luke type piece. Fans will always be back despite what they say.
I’ve clicked it once since myself. But overall have remained steadfast in not reading it.
Me, too. I’ve found that BTD has really good articles lately and in some cases have news before the O does (based on what I see here).
I still send Danny the random email asking when he is going to ask forgiveness from the Heimlich family for outing the youngster…
I don’t check all that often, but there are random tweets from D(aily) M(ail) and not much more than that – I hope he’s interviewing somewhere else. Particularly awful is his failure to retract errors in his original publish – i.e., LM “failed to register” in Corvallis.
I’ll read Gina’s stuff but that’s it. I don’t click on any blind links because I don’t want to end up on a Moran or Canzano story inadvertently.
Tyner seems cool. Looks overweight still. Is he our highest star system player ever? He was a 6.1 rated 5-star, #2 ranked RB and #17th ranked player. I don’t hear a lot of buzz about him. People seem skeptical and like this is nothing more than a “neat story”, but if he stays healthy I think he can dominate still. 22 isn’t old.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZsRFWk_tqE
Cool or not, he’ll never escape being the quacks’ sloppy seconds
That’s bitter.
Let’s see: play for Chip Kelly or Riley…tough decision!
If he had gone to osu after riley lost to sac state, we might still have riley as our coach.
We should be thanking TT for taking a detour before he came here
He still would have not run the ball…….
He is cool and strikes me as too humble, genuine for UO. Had the Sac State game not been so poorly coached he might have gone to OSU where he would likely have bee more comfortable. After ‘Quizz, he likely expected the OSU featured-back running game pattern to continue.
Wait, the Ducks have the #1 recruiting class? What am I reading? I had seen they were doing pretty well, I guess, but #1???
scoreboard
Meh. Talk to me on signing day.
What’s this??? The Ducks have a car salesman for a coach and he can sell a pipe dream to young kids??? There goes the neighborhood.
When you have a throne . . .
Regarding uniform discussion earlier, ask and you shall receive:
https://www.facebook.com/BeaverAthletics/posts/10155183404123127
Really. Glad they went back to OSU silver…
I was hoping Benny would make it from practice field to game day and about 60% of the calls would be running plays…
Notice how A@a didn’t give a prediction.
I’m just here to be able to come back and complain once the season starts. I’ll go with Angry’s prediction, minus 3 ints. I just don’t think there is a better option on the team.