Home Football The Illusion of Improvement & a “Soft Landing”

The Illusion of Improvement & a “Soft Landing”

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With the Euro about to implode, there's a lot of talk about whether the technocrats can engineer a "soft landing" that doesn't blow up the entire financial system.

Well, I think we'll see the same philosophy from the OSU athletic department.

  • Bob D signed Riley to a horrible lifetime contract. Now it's all about damage control: how many years of Riley's contract will OSU be forced to eat? The longer they can extend the charade the better.
  • Convincing donors to fork over money will be increasingly difficult given the football team's performance coupled with current economic conditions.
  • Therefore, he will have to engineer the "illusion of improvement" to keep donations flowing. E.g. If Riley wins 4 games next year, he can tell donors there was improvement, and their money is required for continued improvement.
  • Now that expectations are so low (i.e. 3 wins) it should be easy to execute this plan. If Riley can win just one more game per year they'll get the soft landing, and in 4 years the Beavs will be back to 7 wins and in a bowl game.

If the Beavs can somehow improve to 6 wins next year, then scrap all the above: things return to "normal" as the lower bar will have been met. However, the engineered soft landing implodes if Riley somehow only manages 3 wins (or fewer) next season. At that point it's chaos. Bob D would have to fire him. After all, Beaver fans love them some Emerald Bowls.

Bob D wants Riley as long as possible for one reason: he doesn't want to be paying two coaches. It'll be interesting to see how long the powers at be can keep up the illusion of improvement. Do they make it to 2019? I doubt it, but the average OSU fan is so gullible and meek that they might just pull it off.

72 COMMENTS

  1. 6-6 wouldn’t be good enough for this OSU alum next year. Part of the problem is that BDC and Riley have come up with a 6-6 year as a job so well done it is worthy of an extension. 6-6 is subpar. 7-5 should be the minimum for an OK year or before anything is felt positive at all.

    I say tell Riley he has to go 7-5 or better next year or he is done at OSU. He then either mans up and accepts the task at hand and minimum expected or falls short. If he can’t deliver he is clearly not the right guy to take us any further. Like you said in the last thread, Riley went downhill fast after his best years when recruiting should have been easiest. That is not a good sign. His unwillingness to change is also a death knell.

  2. And when I look at the talent there was no reason this team could not have gone 6-6 or 7-5, but the media is buying into the youth bullshit instead of focusing on poor recruiting and lack of strategy from game to game.

    • umm, I hate to burst your bubble but you could put Dan Marino back there instead of Mannion and it wouldn’t matter. Our O-line sucks badly. You can’t complete passes when you are constantly under pressure or on your back. But that falls on the coaches for poor recruiting. 3 walk ons on the offensive line is absolute horseshit.

  3. A 6-6 year is not good enough for me whatsoever. If Riley doesn’t win 8 games next season he needs to go, period. They have three tough games next season and that’s it. They SHOULD be better in a lot of areas, such as offensive line and defensive tackle. If Riley can’t win 8 games he needs to go. A 6-6 record to me would mean he’s simply holding them back. They have Wisconsin @home, BYU on the road and Oregon @home. They can win one of those. The rest of the schedule is soft. Riley will find a way to lose another game he shouldn’t.

    The conference won’t be as tough next year. Washington State will be mad, Washington will be mediocre to average, Stanford loses Luck. Cal will be solid but I’m not a believer in their QB’s. UCLA will have a new coach, ASU will have a new coach, Utah needs a QB and the Beavers get them at Reser. Arizona has a new coach, new system and should have a bad defense. The conference is weak. Winning 6 games or even 7 games would show a high amount of incompetence.

    I want no less than 8-4 next year.

    I already want Riley out but if he can’t win at 8 games next year then he absolutely has to go. I am not going to put up with mediocrity any longer. I’m close to being done. These last two years have been embarrassing. Riley allowing an almost entire offensive line to be full of walk-ons is a fire-able offense in itself

    • What is embarrassing is that our schedule was exceedingly soft this year too. The only teams that I believe were unbeatable for us this year were Wisconsin, Stanford, Oregon. The rest were average at best. I don’t believe that anything will be different next year. Unless Riley achieves a rose bowl, I will always be a hater.

      Regarding Angry’s soft landing, once Riley hits .500 he gets another year added. This cycle will be impossible to overcome. Unless Riley gracefully retires this year, his reputation will be forever tarnished with me.

  4. This is exactly why I feel that Riley’s character needs to be questioned every year he 1) stays and 2) keeps Banker and Langsdorf. He can win back some respect from a lot of people if he got rid of coordinators during that time (even if it was one at a time). By his third year after this one he could retire because there will be nowhere left to hide, he will be the winningest coach, and it could be said he tried everything he could to right the ship before left.

    But I believe I have said something to this effect before. Feel free to disregard it.

  5. NAH NAH NAH!!! NAH NAH NAH NAH!!!! HEY HEY HEY!!! GOOOD BYE!!!!

    Good bye 2011 season FINALLY!!! Now let’s focus on rebuilding for next year…on the COACHES side of the system…not the players side!

    Also, OL that aren’t walk-ons next year is a MUST if we want to succeed!

  6. Going in to next fall, would you rather have Jeff Tuel competing against Connor Halliday or Sean Mannion competing against…oh sorry no one else has gotten any experience. So there is no backup plan nor injury contingency for next year. Great planning.

    • I don’t see why Mannion was an untouchable as the season progressed and he threw the stupid picks, I would not have minded seeing him pulled on occassion. Put Cody Vaz in there see if he provides a spark. Seems like every other college team has a semi-capable back up.

        • Agreed. Same for Lomax.

          Mannion was given 100% of the playing time at QB (after the first couple of games) so he could gain experience. That should pay dividends down the road.

          But next season Mannion needs to drastically reduce the bad throws and bad reads that result in interceptions. I expect Mannion will work hard this offseason and be much better next year. But if he keeps throwing interceptions next season, Mannion should be pulled, and someone else should get a chance (maybe Harrington, maybe a new freshman QB….)

          • You guys are missing my point or else it goes to how poorly Riley has recruited, so there is no depth at any position. I’m not talking permanently, I’m talking attention getting. Most HC’s at the D-1 pull guys who make the same mistakes over and over no matter age or experience. Do you think Thomas getting pulled for Bennett was just because of injury? Thomas has terrible mechanics and they have been working on it for 2 years, looks like it got his attention.

  7. Like I said before, I don’t see 6 wins happening without at least one coordinator being fired. I don’t see how the running game will significantly improve, nor our receiving corps. And on defense, we have 2 returning, mediocre starting LBs(And Doctor, who isn’t great either). Which was a huge part of the problem.

    Plus, we play USC next year, right? That is another unwinnable game, back on the schedule.

    One or two wins, maybe, but we need significant coaching overhauls to add that many wins. Is your assumption based on firing both coordinators?

  8. This year’s Beaver team was historically bad in three key areas: (1) running the ball on offense; (2) stopping the run on defense; (3) turning the ball over. With OSU ranked among the worst FBS teams in all three areas, the numbers speak for themselves. So does OSU’s 3-9 won-lost record.

    Will anyone be held accountable for these failures? Will any significant changes be made? Or is the plan of the OSU braintrust instead to “stay the course” and keep their fingers crossed that these problems somehow disappear next year with the replacement of a few players at a few key positions, and hard work in the offseason by the returning players?

    Riley probably wants to “stay the course” and keep his staff intact. Will BDC go along with this? Or will BDC (or Ed Ray) demand that at least one coordinator (preferably Banker) be fired now that this season is over. In making this decision, will BDC (or Ed Ray) be influenced at all by fans, donors, the media, or other third-parties? If so, what is the best way for third-parties to push BDC (or Ed Ray) to demand that Banker (and/or Langsdorf) be fired? Whatever that is, I’m in…..

    • All good points silverstream, but I would add one more key area: penalties, too many stupid penalties due to lack of team and individual discipline.

      Posters here not seem to realize how much power there are in numbers, which means sticking together for a common cause and then doing something about it……TOGETHER.

      Bottom line is, if a concerted effort is not put forth to place pressure on the University in some way, we will face a football program with little or no changes for many years to come.

      Nothing can be done together without a LEADER. A higher up donor with the ability to organize and take action to assemble people. With no head, the body dies.

      What is needed:

      A LEADER
      A COMMITTEE
      ACTION STEPS IN PRIORITY LISTING
      DONATIONS TO PAY EXPENSES
      TAKE ACTION

      If there was an organized donor/fan group which existed to force changes in OSU’s football program, there is no limit as to what the group could accomplish….especially with media. Remember, the University, athletic director nor coaching staff likes negative media. Here is where the pressure would come from……media.

      But I doubt if Beavers could muster the energy to find a leader nor organize a group to accomplish the needed goals. Too bad, I bet the duck donor/fans would.

    • I said before the season that turnovers would be the key. The 2010 team could have been 3-9 also with just a mere human at the RB position. It really became a worst case scenario in 2011 of the QB who threw picks and RB’s who couldn’t hold on to the ball, Jacquizz was a freak who the Beavs may never see again.

  9. i actually wouldn’t worry too much about the euro going under. two factors will aid in it remaining a viable currency.

    1. Berlusconi is out… his failed policy led to this crisis, and confidence will be restored without him.
    2. the people of Europe understand how to sacrifice for the common good.

    I would add that the “conservative” (what I would cal highly liberal) buy-ins by economies like Spain, Greece, Iceland and Italy were just stupidities beyond compare. i wish we didn’t resemble those shambles.

  10. Wulff is expected to be out at WSU. They want Leach!

    http://www.cougcenter.com/2011/11/26/2589169/paul-wulff-fired-mike-leach-wsu-cougars-football-apple-cup-2011

    I wish OSU would atleast give Leach a very real feeler before he potentially signs with WSU. Leach can take on Chip and the Ducks from the Pac-12 North with WSU but why not do it as the main rival and beat Chip at his own game and return the Civil War to an intriguing and worthy contest? If he does interview with WSU and accepts then it confirms my thoughts that Leach would fit best at OSU or WSU in the Pac-12 and the naysayers could well be wrong. I always thought the Pac-12 made most sense for him and especially the less urban schools.

    • Wulff did a very good job, taking over a horrible team with no talent, and making them a real team again. While they’re still a few years away from being good, this is still very premature. Nobody could have turned that program into a winner in two years.

      I do NOT want Leech and Rodriguez replacing Stoops and Wolff though. That makes our coach bottom-3 in the Pac12. Brutal.

      I am amused that Wulf and Riley aren’t that far apart the past few years, but Wolff got fired with far less talent. I’m jealous of their leadership, even if it was probably too early to get rid of him.

    • Leach would be a fantastic hire for WSU (if he’d go there!). All that crap that happened at TTU seems to me to be so incredibly overblown and sensationalized by the media because of the kid’s daddy. There is no question that Leach turned TTU into a winner. He’ll do the same at WSU (again, that’s even if Leach would want the job which I’m not certain is even possible).

      Rich Rod couldn’t win at Michigan, but he certainly has a track record at WVU, so it is highly possible he can bring good things to Arizona.

      And, at OSU, we’ve got a bunch of has-beens, still holding on to old ways of doing business and believing the system they have is working. I for one, don’t think it is.

  11. This is pretty simple. On Monday morning, Banker and Langsdorf need to be canned. If they are not, Riley gets fired on Tuesday. Beaver Nation should accept nothing less.

    • I liked the article. What I didn’t like was Riley’s feeling of confidence over the folks he has on the squad coming back. I’m supposed to believe that one game later (i.e. game one of the 2012 season), the lights will turn on for all the sophomores who were freshmen the last game they played and they’ll now be good? I know folks like to say experience is a significant factor in a team’s improvement, but when you are a mediocre player, there is only so much distance you can improve. I heard the same argument for years about the Beaver basketball team and never saw any improvement (although perhaps now it is occurring because the players we have have a higher ceiling).

      Oh, and finally, I noticed that Agnew didn’t get a mention as one of the returning RBs for next year. Is he really that far into the doghouse????

      • You are exactly right about the freshman improving. Game 1 next year they won’t possibly be that much better players. They only have 15 practices this spring and a handful more next fall before the next season begins.

    • Kirkpatrick just piggybacked on to Riley’s post game comments and the article the Oregonian put out last night. Nothing specific, same old “Rileyisms”.

      Also, I don’t think we as fans on this site are talking about the same thing Riley is. MR is trying to figure out a way to get just 3 or 4 more wins next year, get bowl eligible and get an extension. His fear is another losing season and forcing BDC to do something he does not want to do.

  12. Well, at least Oregon State was consistent this season (Sarcasm). They were consistently unable to block, unable to run the football, unable to score points, turn the ball over consistently, unable to stop or contain a running Quarterback, unable to stop the run, unable to stop the pass, unable to make adjustments, unable to be unpredictable, unable to show improvement, unable to reduce the penalties, etc….
    I might have missed a few, but that pretty much sums up how this 2011 season went. Blaming the “youth movement” is just an excuse. The problems with the solutions are much deeper than that. For 4 years in a row OSU has lost to the *ucks in the Civil War! Inexcusable. During those losses OSU has had at least 2 turnovers, and the defense allowed over 600 yards of offense, and the fewest amount of points the *ucks have scored was 37 points, in each Civil War the last 4 years!

    Tell me, just how many programs would allow their team to lose to their rival team 4,5, (possibly looking at 20 years at this point) years in a row?
    The only time the Civil War was even close was in 2009, OSU lost 37-33.

    OSU must build an offense and a defense to beat Oregon!

    The two most important words to anyone associated with Oregon State University are:
    BEAT OREGON

    The gap between the OSU and uo football programs are light years apart! It has never been wider than it is today.

  13. Hi BN… It’s me again the old coach. I hereby formally withdraw my name from consideration to replace MR as head coach. Even my renowned coaching awesomeness couldn’t revive this train wreck. I can assure you, however, we would have gained at least 50 yards yesterday. This 2011 squad looks almost as pathetic as my great 96 team, so what would be the point?

    Maybe you will see me at the helm of ASU, WSU or UCLA.

    I don’t see any inclination on the part of the OSU administration to make any changes. As the young players mature 2012 will result in marginal improvement to maybe 5-7? Is anyone thrilled with that prospect?

    OH well…. JB

    O…S…..U….. wave arm like spaz… or until embarrassed.

  14. Let’s pretend Riley and company stay and suddenly they become the dream team of coaching (cough – cough), or we get a miracle and bring in Urban Meyer or something.

    With the talent that is there now, and what is being currently recruited, can we really be a competitor again in the near future? The teams you field are built at least 2 years prior correct… considering recruiting and all. So will we really be competitive next year or the year after even the year after that?

    • I can answer that…in fact, you already answered your own question. No, we will not be competitive next year. Do not listen to what Riley says about how he really likes his team and thinks “he really has something.” I heard that so many times this year, I wanted to throw up. I see talent and depth problems at O-line (extensive), D-line (the tackles and the ends–no depth behind Wynn and Crichton), the LBs (the guys we have are mediocre players), the safeties, and at running back (none of the guys on the squad will ever find their picture on the wall next to KS, SJ, YB, or JR.

      If we started recruiting these positions lights out for the next three years, we would possibly be competitive by year 2014. The problem is that Riley is limiting the ceiling for these guys. I believe his current coaching staff is actually making his players worse, not better. I’m so sick and tired of hearing the story about how Riley finds guys and turns them into NFL prospects. I want to throw up again. Just like when I heard the term “linebacker U” mentioned in the same sentence as OSU. We had a few good LBs on the squad back in the early part of the decade, but I haven’t seen a lot of true NFL prospects since Barnett left. I don’t think any of the LBs we’ve graduated since Barnett have stuck around NFL rosters for very long.

  15. I really think the O-line is at least two years from being in the upper half of the Pac-12. None of the RB’s scare anyone, and OSU is going to continue to have the same issues it had this year in terms of no need to respect the run game. Mannion will be better, but the keys to stopping OSU will be just as obvious.

    The disheartening thing about the lines is it doesn’t sound like any younger players threatened a bunch of under-performing upperclassmen. I hope Jackson can step in right away next year, but SilverStream’s practice reports seem to indicate Jackson did not appear overly attentive, I hope that’s not an indication of an attitude problem. Phillips comes back, but his attitude hasn’t seemed all that great, certainly not enough to capitalize on his physical talent.

    I agree with Angry, but Suemalo at DT, but even if JC help comes in. Move Wynn to MLB and move him around a bunch, put Chricton/Fernando at the ends, Welch and Doctor on the outsides. Poyer and Reynolds should be good, the overall problem as usual willl be depth.

    Recruiting absolutely has to result in legitimate DI talent at the DT and RB positions. A RB with breakaway speed would do wonders for this team.

    Reading through the articles today, it sounds like OSU staff and players are continuing to delude themselves. Degradation can be a slow process that those close to it don’t notice, but its been happening the past several years, staved off mainly by the Rodgers brothers exceptional will and talents.

    • I agree with everyone above.

      I don’t see how having 3 new starters will make our offensive line functional. All great coaches say the most important part of a line is chemistry, and new starters won’t have it. Yes, they’ll have more talent, but it still takes time to develop that talent into something useful.

      What we’ve seen so far from our RBs is mediocrity. Agnew has the most talent and the most problems, and Riley won’t play him if he fumbles. Ward is nothing. Stevenson is functional, but nobody is afraid of him. So unless Marable or Woods are secretly awesome, or someone else drastically improves, we won’t have a running game next year either.

      Finally, I’d love to see Wynn moved to LB. Late in the season he was making less plays, but his motor, size, and intelligence would be absolutely ideal for a linebacker. He was undersized at DE, and Rusty can start there, anyway. But if we have a talent deficiency at LB, and an overload, at DE, why not move one? Too hard?

      • I asked the question above to confirm what I already felt. Basically, little hope without real change at the top (MR and assoc.) because these coaches won’t recruit well, won’t scheme according to our weaknesses and strengths, won’t move players around to other positions, and won’t win or more important be even competitive until good players happen to find their way to OSU and make bad coaching look good.

  16. Just because you don’t remember them, doesn’t mean they don’t exist. I watched Victor Strong-Butler play well on Thanksgiving for the Cowboys. Norris is still in the league. The Bills have 2 Beaver LBs. Kristic played for the 49ers last year.

    That’s why some of us have been so pissed for the last few years; we haven’t had that stud LB that we’ve previously had.That’s without naming guys like Doggette, Roberson, or Seigler. Stud DEs, big DTs, and one playmaking LB used to be the core of the defense.

        • I understand VB is an OLB now, but my point is simply that we haven’t had high quality LBs that we could count on since Barnett and crew. I know some people will disagree saying Doggett, Ellison, and LaRocque were very good, but the fact they aren’t in the league at all right now days to me they were nothing more than fairly serviceable players while they were with us. I never liked Kristick…way overrated as a player and the 49ers agreed (presently not on an NFL roster). Victor Butler, Slade Norris, and Gabe Miller were all DEs in our system, so I don’t count them. Perhaps my expectations are much too high, but when I compare our LBs with just the rest of the conference, how can we get away with calling ourselves “linebacker U”? I think that comes across as silly. I have all the same information that you do, so don’t think you are enlightening me. It seems you and I are just interpreting the facts differently

    • Obvioiusly, the expectation from the people who have the power and authority is 6-6/7-5 seasons and minor bowl games. We can all bitch and moan until we are blue in the face, but Riley thinks he can get that doing it his way.and that’s what he is going to do, he has that support. If everyone here is ready for it, then it will take another losing season for change.

  17. Regarding the offensive line talk above, there actually is reason to think they could be much better next year. Michael Philipp had his bum knee surgically repaired, Darryl Jackson is a monster who redshirted this year and will be ready to compete for a spot next year, people are saying Seumalo is already better than some of our starters as a high school kid, and Josh Andrews will be back for his junior year with a (hopefully) healthy knee. I’m not saying our o-line will be Stanford-esque by any means, but we will hopefully see some vast improvement from the past two seasons.

  18. Significant change (firing Banker and/or Langsdorf) is unlikely to occur on its own. Mike Riley wants to keep his staff intact. BDC has always been conservative and risk-averse, and now is also distracted by his own health issues. Put simply, neither Riley nor BDC wants to fire anyone. We all know that.

    Still, if external pressure could be applied promptly — while the pain of this awful season remains fresh — it might be possible to get BDC and Riley to fire Banker and/or Langsdorf. How could this be achieved?

    It probably starts by getting one or two major donors to work with us. Major donors have access to BDC and to Ed Ray (and perhaps to Riley, too). Combine the access and clout of one or two big donors with the numbers of our group (assuming we could get, say, 100 signatures on a petition), and we might get a fair face-to-face hearing. At such a meeting, we could lay out the case — based on facts, not emotion — for firing Banker and/or Langsdorf. That might help to push OSU to take action, rather than simply “staying the course” for another year.

    I know at least one major donor. I plan to call him to discuss this. Some of you probably have connections to other major donors. What do you think?

    And how many signatures do you think we could get on a petition? The more, the better (obviously). It would be especially useful to get signatures of people who have contributed money to OSU over the past year or two…..

      • Off the website, under donors/contributors. Is this any?

        Bill Gates (a matching gift for Alan Heuberger

        Geoffrey O. BurneyLen David Wolford

        Wendy Tomlin Williams

        Michael Scott Oakey

        Intel (matching gift)

        Kenneth E. Lott

        Tim Noland

        Mark Steven Campbell

        James Hamer

        Lynn Plew

        Margaret Meehan

        Barbara Peterson

        Bob and Mary Jo Nye

        Beit Am Jewish Community Center (Holocaust)

        Carol van Natta (Holocaust)

        Lisa Schwartz

        Michael Maier

        • The sad part about our donors is that NO ONE knows who the hell our donors are? We likely have several smaller contributors, not just one or two high-profile individuals who want to see football succeed. This just seems so strange to me that OSU has no immediately known people who give meaningful money. Yes, Al Reser was that man, but after his passing, the financial support from that family seems to be up in the air. That said, I have even more respect for that man and his contributions to OSU. Here is someone who bled orange and black and carried the financial torch for us. In hindsight, I think we took his contributions and passion for OSU athletics for granted.

  19. I just thought I’d poke a hole in angry’s comment because it’s amusing: you do realize the Emerald Bowl doesn’t exist anymore, right? ;-)

  20. I think we should continue to ask the media guys that have contact with Riley to ask the “tough” questions too. Not so much to see how he’ll answer, but to continue sending the message that Beaver fans are fed up. Even if MR gives his canned, nice guy responses remember that both the question and answer get printed.

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