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On Critical Thinking, Moving Toward Football Season, (General Thread)

By
angry
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131

I came across this quote today by physicist Richard Feynman

The first principle is that you must not fool yourself – and you are the easiest person to fool.

It applies to sports fans. It applies to myself. We all want to be better critical thinkers. That requires removing as much bias as possible to strip things down to the core. There are barriers to being a good critical thinker. For example, if you emotionally invest (ego) into a conclusion, motivated reasoning kicks in and distorts and biases critical thinking towards fooling one’s self. It is very possible to have your critical thinking skills lead you to the wrong answer, only to find your more confident than ever in this error because you’re so heavily invested. This results in a “sophisticated rationalization” that feels like truth, making the pattern harder to break. Admitting I/we/you were wrong is part of critical thinking and removing bias. Just keep that in mind. People get mad when new data comes in, and I change my mind. They view it as inconsistency. I view it as discovery. As if changing one’s mind, in the face of overwhelming evidence, is a bad thing. That should be applauded not chided. For example, Johnny Hekker is now a great punter (to my amazement). Great critical thinking should be flexible and not afraid to change.

Anyway, this very human issue is something to be aware of moving forward. It is the curse of Beaverblitz and PureOrange readers. Think how it made them staunchly back Riley for years, even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

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Moving on…

Fall practice doesn’t begin until August 10th (9am precisely), and will go almost through opening day. So what to discuss between now and then? Well, like above, let’s try to all improve our critical thinking for this massive coaching change. Setting reasonable goals for season one is probably a good idea. I’d say 6 wins would be a success. Though, I do think more or fewer are possible, as there are so many variables for which to account.

I don’t have the time to analyze each position right now. Between now and camp I will. I need to familiarize myself with the roster after all the changes, and just haven’t done it yet because I’m not in the football mindset. Now that we’re in June, that will slowly set in. If anyone wants an opinion on a player I’ll give that, etc. Or, just use this as a general thread. I really want to make sure our mindset is right and not make an embarrassment out of AB. Many fans who read this site only knew Riley, so this is going to be a big deal. It’s like breaking up with your first and only girlfriend and going out into the scary world of dating…many emotions, biases, and such. So get that all in check and prepare yourself for the season. Try to set reasonable goals, try to think critically without bias and emotion, try to add a little humor into the mix, etc. Have at it.

Baseball Vent Thread

By
angry
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44

Someone suggested this, and it’s a good idea. My vent from the old thread, to get things rolling:

I miss the chemistry and bulldog mentality [of the championship teams]. They had leaders + players.

For almost a decade now they’ve had good recruits who never seem to be great leaders or gel. I think the Beavs have become a minor league breeding ground. Groom players for the majors/minor leagues, players set individual goals, etc. I don’t see a lot of team mindset or clear goals anymore.

I wish we had more guys like Canham and Dallas Buck, who had little shot at the majors, yet were great leaders and bulldogs who wanted to win NCAA titles first and foremost. Maybe I’m wrong. It’s from memory. But it just seems that way. They began recruiting higher profile players and the goals and chemistry changed. KRod was a great example of it. He clearly just wanted to get to the pros and was not into NCAA baseball except as a means to make the pros/money. Dude pitched with zero heart.

Andrew Moore is the closest thing to the old style. It’s probably why we all like him. There have been a few here and there (e.g. Tyler Smith) who fit the old style, but it would be nice to get a team of those types who can also play well, instead of just signing highly ranked guys. The windfall in recruiting after the titles hurt chemistry. It’s a double edged sword because the talent is nice…what I am saying is I wish Casey would screen the talent a bit better, and maybe sign a guy rated slightly worse if if that player has that better mindset.

And on Casey retiring:

If Casey retires baseball won’t be any good. If he moves to AD and hires SB, there’s a chance it remains competitive, but SB would have to learn how to recruit and handle the draft. One miscalculation there and you could ruin a program. Casey has done excellent at managing that complex issue. I think he’s better at that than in-game management, tbh. And I think it’s the most important aspect of coaching college.

I think that’s lost on people…managing a baseball game is pretty easy. Managing the roster with a year draft is extremely difficult. The higher the recruit the Beavs sign, the more likely they lose the player early. This is another reason chemistry has not been that good — they simply don’t spend 4 years with one another in many cases.

Dallas Regional: Oregon State vs. VCU

By
angry
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347

4:05 on ESPN3

Go Beavs

NCAA Dallas Regional: Oregon State vs. Texas

By
angry
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191

11:30am on ESPN3.

Go Beavs!

Dallas Regional Discussion

By
angry
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142

My initial feeling is the Beavs got a tough 3 seed in Texas, when you consider Columbia, Stony Brook, Wright State and Oral Roberts are three seeds. If they committee were going to hose the Beavs, at least they could have sent them to an easier bracket.

Pat Casey seemed to have the same reaction.

Texas seems to be playing their best baseball, and though I couldn’t find much about their team, you have to assume that being Texas they have the usual under-performing talent that could dominate at any time, plus they’ll essentially be playing at home. Beavs will also be in hot and humid weather. Rough.

On the flipside, as I wrote earlier, the Beavs should have more than chips on their shoulders, and are also playing good ball, so that emotion might propel them through this tough regional.

Beavs weakness, from what I saw, is lack of slugging. If you take out Gabe Clark beating up on bad pitching, the Beavs slugged under .390. Their conference slugging percentage was .337. That’s a bad OBP, never mind a slugging percentage. Speaking of OBP, their slugging percentage was lower than the team OBP (.340) in conference play. Weird. So while I think many are focused on the poor bullpen, this team has other problems. I actually think the starters are good enough to get to the 7th each game, and at that point Heimlich (pitching good ball, lowing his ERA to a respectiable 3.57 and 2.45 in Pac play), Church, and Hickey they can close out the 8th and 9th with those three guys. I’m more concerned about the lack of pop. Decent speed can make up for that in some regard (i.e. turn a single into a double via the SB), but their two best base-stealers are only at 66% combined. Statistically, they are hurting the team with that rate (i.e. anything under 75% makes the stolen base risk higher than the reward). So the question in my mind is this: can the Beavs get enough starting pitching, play effective enough station-to-station ball, and win in Texas’ backyard vs two Texas schools, and in hot/humid weather? It’s possible Hendrix and Harrison have big series and negate the slugging talk. But the Beavs are missing one bat. It’s too bad Gabe Clark only puts up numbers vs bad pitching, because he’d be the 3rd guy they desperately need.

If OSU wins this regional it will be a feat. My gut says they’ll have to do it by playing a fiery, emotional brand of baseball and out efforting the opponents.

 

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