We have to be careful to take solace in the Beavs playing fairly well. Meaning, if they lost 70-2 everyone would be calling for change, but since it was a 1 point game with good effort, maybe people give Ranker a pass and think, “we’re close! Next year is the year!” This would be human nature.

On a similar note, we can’t act like this loss is as bad as Washington or Stanford. At least the players showed up for the game.

That being said, the coaching staff, specifically Riley, cost his team another game. The biggest error was not taking the FG in the 3rd quarter. It would have put the score at 23-24, which was totally fine for that juncture of the game. Another error was throwing a deep pass on 4th and 1. Deep passes have the lowest completion percentage of any play, so what’s the logic in using it when you need a yard? It’s overkill, like shooting mice with a 12 gauge. Finally, and this is a tough one, but I think he should have milked the clock at the end of that game and taken the winning FG attempt. As soon as Bolden scored, I turned to my girlfriend and said, “Too much time on the clock; the Ducks are going to win.”

One final point: in typical Beaver fashion (i.e. luck o’ the Beavs), we got the worst of both worlds: a close game so fans can say, “hey, at least it wasn’t a blowout”…yet no win. So, status quo complacency remains, but without the win. “At least it wasn’t a blowout” is music to Riley’s ears. But it’s sad that’s a popular paradigm. Those fans are clearly a major part of the problem, but I’m preaching to the choir and beating a dead horse and [insert your favorite idiom] with that.

Luck o’ the Beavs.

Go Beavs!

Some want them to get demolished today to speed up a Riley retirement. I can’t go there yet, but I can view that as a silver lining should we get destroyed.

I have this game at 52-27, but could see it being closer if the Ducks have another mental hangover (and QB issues). The Beavs might be viewing a win today as redemption, their swan song, for a poor season. So, those two things combined could make it closer. Even in that best case scenario, I think the spread has to be -10 Ducks.

If the Beavs somehow win this game, I do fear everyone will forgive Ranker (/Biley), and it will setback this growing push for change. That would be the typical Luck o’ the Beavs.

Here is my Q&A (his questions/my answers) with Rusty Ryan.

1.  What has been the biggest struggles behind the running game this year?

The biggest struggle has been consistency on the line. Guys were hurt early in the year, and they never gelled. Also, Riley has abandoned the run game early in games, and in some games he never tried to establish it. Riley believes in team “identity” (he uses this term all the time). It’s clear he thinks this team’s identity is the passing game, to the extent he doesn’t even try to run.

The greatest strength has been the WR corps. Cooks and Mullaney are both future pros. Caleb Smith is an intriguing tight end, and also a pro prospect if he can stay healthy. The weakness has been the defensive front. The Beavers cannot stop the run at all.

3.  If you could fix one problem with the program what would it be, and why?

That’s a tough question. There are many problems, and it’s hard to know the core of them. I would probably change out the athletic director, because the defeatist, woe-is-me attitude around Oregon State starts at the top. Bob DeCarolis is constantly crying poverty and implying this is the best OSU can do. I don’t think that’s a healthy mentality from the guy at the top.

4.  Are there common traits of Beaver wins?  Does it come down to third-down conversions, not turning the ball over, or running well?

The only common trait has been weak opponents. The Beavers won 6 straight versus bad teams. As the teams improved, the Beavers wilted. Stanford was the defining game this year, and the magnitude of each loss has snowballed since then.

5.  What would have to go right for Oregon State to win Friday?

In short, everything. But specifically, I think Oregon will have to turn the ball over 3+ times and the Beavers will have to have long, sustained drives to win the game. My hunch is the Beavers will try to pass and get into a shoot out. That would be a dire strategy. The Ducks are not as physical this year, so I think going into the game with an attitude that they’re going to be the more physical team, and then surprising them with the run game is the only hope. I wouldn’t rule out trick plays if the situation dictates one. My prediction is 52-27 Ducks.