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Basketball: George Washington @ OSU

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The Beavs and George Washington tip off at 4:30 local time. 

The criticism thus far is all valid:

  1. Coach Robinson's lineup experimentation is holding the team back.
  2. Robinson doesn't know how to use timeouts or manage a clock.
  3. The seniors need to ride the pine.
  4. A Pac-10 team cannot lose to such inferior opponents.

Etc. All points are true and valid.

That being said, you can call me contrarian, but I see a team on the precipice of "getting it". The Beavers have only been blown out only once, and their other 4 loses were by a combined 16 points. They are losing close games, but in these loses there has been growth. We saw Angus Brandt mature this past game, Roberto Nelson's defensive ability looks impressive, Starks has shown flashes, Collier looks like an ACC player, etc. I don't know when it will be, but at some point this season these things will come together consistently, and this team will win games we expect them to lose.

To me the best lineup is becoming clear:

  • Starks
  • Nelson
  • Cunningham
  • Collier
  • Johnson

Yes, it's small with Cunningham at forward, but that gives the Beavers three legit outside shooters and would force Collier's inside game, which is great, to develop quickly. Joe Burton and Angus Brandt could sub for one of the guards when bigger bodies are needed, and they could also backup the front court when rest is required. 

My cautious optimism is based on what I believe is the most valid criticism so far: that as long as Calvin Haynes and Lathan Wallace see significant minutes this team will continue to lose. If the shift toward the lineup I mention above continues (and it has begun) then I think the light bulb turns on sooner rather than later. If Haynes and Wallace play more than 8-10 minutes each, the team will continue to lose close games.

I also would like to add one more observation before signing off: the Beavers have lost all of these close games around the 9 minute mark in the second quarter. I'm learning it's the critical time in a ballgame. If today's contest is close, keep an eye on what they do at that juncture of the game. It's usually just a couple mental lapses that let the opponent go up by two or three possessions, and then the subsequent pressure turns into a frenetic pace where the Beavers lose all composure and spiral downward.

Anyway, below is the scouting report on George Washington.

George Washington snapped a four-game losing streak with a 73-67 win over Towson on Dec. 8 to improve its record to 3-5 with its other wins against Marist and Nevada. The Colonials went 16-15 last season, 6-10 in the Atlantic 10 Conference, and advanced to the College Basketball Invitational where they lost in the first round to Virginia Commonwealth, 79-73. Junior guard Tony Taylor leads the team in scoring (12.0 ppg), assists (5.0 apg) and steals. Senior center Joseph Katuka is averaging 9.4 points and 5.3 rebounds per game, while freshman forward Nemanja Mikic is averaging 8.5 points per game and shooting 45 percent from three-point range (21of-47). George Washington had nine days off since the Towson game for final exams.

Today's game is available on TV (Fox Sports) and via radio.

I'm calling for a Beaver win, but it's based on the assumption that Robinson puts the right pieces in place.

Discussion: Beavers Juco Signings

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For those who haven't followed recruiting for long, the logic behind signing junior college players is they're mentally mature, filled out, and ready to step in and contribute from day one. It's the latter I'm worried about with the two latest signings.

First let's examine DE Blake Harrah. In 2010, Harrah played for an average Saddleback team, and contributed a whopping 2.5 sacks in 11 games. Saddleback played a weak schedule and finished 8-3. That's besides the point; let's forget about Saddleback and ask the difficult question: how exactly does 2.5 sacks scream "give this kid a full scholarship!"? Compounding the matter is Harrah's offer sheet: Middle Tennessee State. Yes, that's all folks. Oh, Bowling Green had some interest as well, as if that makes the pill easier to swallow. In short, it is hard to imagine a DE who only registered 2.5 sacks against inferior competition will suddenly blossom against superior talent the Pac-12. Blake Harrah is Keith Pankey Mk II, pedigree and all.

Linked is Harrah's film. Decide for yourself.

Moving on…the second Juco signed was Rusty Fernando. While Fernando's offer sheet is long, it is not exactly impressive. Again we see Middle Tennessee State and Bowling Green, in addition to Utah State, South Dakota State, Northern Arizona, Idaho, and Ohio. His only respectable offer came from Hawaii, a team that would play a Lawrence Taylor Wheaties box on defense if it were legal. Fernando can at least claim production, earning 90 tackles and 8 sacks for a 6-4 Glendale squad.

Whether these guys turn out to be players…who knows. Personally, I feel both are reaches and neither will pan out. Rather than defensive end, Harrah looks better suited to either (a) the bench or (b) offensive guard. Fernando has some upside, but he's not the legit game changer for whom we're searching. Fans tend to reason out such signings and grasp at the bright spots in the always curiously limited film. Sure, if you watch the 1:25 mark of some hypothetical Youtube video you may see a great play that allows your mind to wander, hope, imagine. But what we all know deep down is that the great players do it every down, not once a year.

With the Christmas season upon us and off-season expectations high given the surfeit of free time, the coaching staff has delivered yet another recruiting sock o' coal. 

Basketball Comments: Beavs @ Montana

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Here is the scouting report of the Grizzlies:

Montana enters the game with a 5-4 record with wins over Montana Tech, Idaho, Cal State Fullerton, UCLA and Great Falls. The win over the Bruins was at fabled Pauley Pavilion and the Grizzlies first-ever win in five tries against UCLA. The Grizzlies went 22-10 last season and advanced to the NCAA Tournament by winning the Big Sky Conference tournament. Montana battled No. 3 seed New Mexico throughout the first round game before falling 62-57. Sophomore guard Will Cherry leads the team in scoring (15.3) and assists (3.7) and is first in the nation in steals (4.1). Senior center Brian Qvale is averaging 13.8 points and 7.2 rebounds per game, while junior forward Derek Selvig is a 7-footer who can shoot from three-point range and is averaging 10.2 points per game. Junior guard Jordan Wood and freshman forward Kareem Jamar round out the starting five.

There is no TV or live stream for this game. You might want to try KPAM for an audio feed: http://www.kpam.com/features/sports.php

I'm not sure if they're broadcasting it tonight.

As far as the game, expect the Beavers to get blown out of the building. They haven't played well on the road, and the Grizzlies are a disciplined team with confidence after the UCLA victory. They'll be looking to take down another Pac team and build their post season resume. Roberto Nelson is a wild card who can keep them in this game. He should play better on the road without all the eyes and expectations upon him.

Petition to Banish the Cartoon Beaver

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Note: if you know anyone who would agree with this petition but doesn't read this site, please send it to them and have them sign. I'd like 100 signatures before sending it off to Bob. That seems like a strong number where he'd have to listen. Below is the petition:

Bob De Carolis,

We, ______________(the undersigned below), respectfully ask Oregon State University to officially discard the cartoon angry beaver as a logo for the university. Removal of the beaver should include but not be limited to Ralph Miller Court, Reser Stadium, and players' football helmets. We believe the cartoon beaver is dated, embarrassing, and makes the university look second rate.

Additionally, we ask that the current administration strongly consider simplicity or no logos at all. For example, the all black, matte helmet (as used during the 2010 the Civil War) created a strong yet classy image. We believe such a helmet, combined with the orange jersey, would give the Beavers increased national exposure while also being more aesthetically pleasing.

Finally, we ask the administration be more open to aggressive change. There is a feeling in the fan base that Oregon State as a whole is slow to react in these modern times. We fans would rather see proactive flounders than delayed, reactionary, or stagnant decision making.

We thank you for taking the time to read our concerns, and hope you take them into consideration moving forward in the Pac-12.

Debut of Roberto Nelson

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At 1:30 this afternoon we'll finally get to see touted freshman Roberto Nelson. Since he'll likely be rusty, don't expect Nelson to get much playing time today. Robinson has been saying all the right things this week to take pressure off Roberto. Expect somewhere in the range of five to eight minutes and 6 points as he's worked into the lineup.

Below is the scouting report on Texas Pan Am

Texas-Pan American is 3-7 on the season with wins over Eastern Kentucky, SUNY-Cobbleskill and Victory University. The Broncs and Beavers have played one common opponent this season in Colorado. UTPA lost to the Buffaloes, 83-64, at the Coors Events Center in Boulder, Colo., on Nov. 30. Head coach Ryan Marks is in his second season after posting a 6-27 record in his first year, which included a win over Utah Valley in the Great West Conference Tournament. The Broncs start four guards, including senior Perry Petty and sophomores Aaron Urbanus and Brandon Provost, who are all averaging double-figures in scoring. Senior Matt Mierzycki is the team leader in rebounding and Petty leads the team in assists.

What I don't like seeing is that they play four guards. The Beavs have been atrocious in defending the corners in their 2-3 and 1-3-1 defenses. With Nelson on the floor do they shift towards man to man defense? He's not a great defender, but he is better than Haynes.

Either way, this is one of a handful of games Beaver fans can't miss. We've waited a year and a half to see what this guy can do. The good news is that we will, in fact, be able to see the game, as it is being broadcasted live on the internet.

http://www.channelsurfing.net/